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On July 18 2012 08:37 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 08:29 Hapahauli wrote:
Fuck. GG Obvious.660, wish I could've done more to save ya.
@ Jingle - well if he claimed vet, he would've survived, no? It also confirms a townie and doesn't waste a lynch.
@ Town - Balls.
Fortunately we should be able to get some information from the bandwagon. I'll be looking through vote patterns and rereading filters tonight. In the mean time, make sure you post your reads before the end of the night!! I'll try to post mine in a couple of hours - we don't want anyone dying from the mafia night kill without providing any information. I wouldn't count someone claiming vet as confirmed townie unless they actually survived an attack. That's like claiming VT, with the exception that if they're telling the truth, it means scum won't waste an NK on them, and the only ways to confirm it are to have a Vigi shoot them or have a DT investigate them. I can't say GG, myself, when, even if we assume that 100% of the scum voted for him, which we have no way of knowing for sure, he still seemed scummy to enough townies to be in serious danger without scum voting on him.
I'm by no means suggesting that all the scum voted for Obvious.660. However, I'd be pretty damn surprised if no scum voted for him, given the extremely strong bandwagon in the second half of D1. A bandwagon like that doesn't get started without some mafia cooperation.
As for the vet stuff, I'm no expert on role-claiming logic, so meh.
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On July 18 2012 08:45 YourHarry wrote:
Of course he should have claimed. Though claiming may or may not have saved him, since this is semi-open set up. I am probably going to guess that he would have lived.
On the positive side. I AM POSITIVE THAT FULLA IS TOWN.
Explain? Him showing up near the deadline to pile on Obvious.660 didn't look good to me. Hell, look at his last post:
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?
Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660
He doesn't even understand the voting situation - his vote wouldn't have mattered, yet he plays it up like a big deal. In addition, he doesn't even know this is plurality lynch. This looks like a mafia member who joins bandwagons (look at his suspicion on Tube in his 2nd post) and doesn't even bother to read the thread, knowing all he has to do is stay friendly and cast suspicion.
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@ YourHarry - I hope you have a really really good reason for defending Fulla. As it stands, you're still my #1 read, and this sounds like you're trying to protect a scumbuddy.
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On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch. On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?
Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660 This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY.
A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting.
For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT.
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On July 18 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 09:03 Hapahauli wrote:On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch. On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?
Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660 This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY. A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting. For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT. Lurking is not excusable behavior for TOWN AND SCUM. And in the absence of strong scum/town read, it may be OK to start a bandwagon against a lurking player. But when a player is obviously townie (and in my opinion, Fulla is obv townie), deciding to lynch a lurking townie may not be the best play for town. Hopefully he would start posting more.
But WHYYYYY is he so obviously townie? You only list his vote as your reasoning. Do you think this outweighs his low post count, lurking, showing up right before the deadline, bandwagoning (against Tube and Obvious.660) AND misrepresenting the importance of his vote?
Is there something I'm missing here?
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Catching up for the night, posts incoming:
On July 18 2012 11:02 JingleHell wrote:
Hapa, (yes, I'm about to ask your opinion, maybe the two of us will do better working together, since we operate from different angles), how do you feel about this notion, pure hypothetical: Scum tube, finally gets people off his case, sees Jingle as "aggressive townie", jumps on Obvious to try and ride the bandwagon.
My primary reason for thinking this is plausible, tube was too happy to jump behind me, but once the heat on him dies down, and people start remembering "he made an effort", his posting starts regressing mostly.
Thoughts?
Its plausible, but I don't find it likely. For one, Tube's "post quality" doesn't deteriorate significantly, and it's a pretty natural reaction to post a bit carefree when the suspicion is shifted off of you. I devoted a few posts to establishing his innocence as well, so I think any shifts in posting style are explainable.
This seems like a case of one townie willing to jump behind a strong personality of another likely-townie.
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On July 18 2012 11:08 calgar wrote:
@vigilante – I believe our next lynch has a high likelihood of being iamperfection. A number of people currently consider him the best choice now. It doesn’t look like he is bothered to respond to accusations or post much in general. I strongly advise to (carefully) consider a hit on him to save us a day, imo. Then on to the bigger fish.
It's only justifiable for vigi (if we haveone) to shoot someone if there's a really strong case against them. I'm not a fan of N1 vigi kills in general because of the relatively little information we have.
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On July 18 2012 12:13 tube wrote:
You just stated all the consequences of vigi shooting a townie, which are inherent and already known to everyone.
However, the much more likely scenario is that he actually is mafia and should therefore be taken out as early as possible.
If you disagree with all of Mufaa's, Hapa's, and calgar's cases against him, then you should explain where the reasonable doubt comes from, because "it's too easy" doesn't really convince anyone.
I never posted a case on iamperfection. I voted for YourHarry, and switched my vote when Calgar tried to lobby votes to prevent the Obvious.660 lynch by trying to vote for iamperfection.
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On July 18 2012 07:31 Probulous wrote:Vote Count Obvious.660 (6): YourHarry, JingleHell, iamperfection, tube, Evulrabbitz, YourHarry, Fulla Tube (2): JingleHell, Obvious.660, YourHarry, drwiggl3s, YourHarry (0): JingleHell, Hapahauli, calgarFulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (3): calgar, Mufaa, Hapahauli, calgar JingleHell (0): YourHarryObvious.660 set to be lynched
Sooo here's the votelist.
Let's break down the voting actions:
I have limited time right now, so I'll break down the other non-Obvious.660 votes later today. DO NOT use this as an excuse to tunnel suspicion on only these people - make sure you read the filters of all the other players (including me) before casting votes.
Voted for Obvious:
YourHarry - Votes Obvious early (little reasoning), then votes JingleHell (quickly retracts), then revotes Obvious.
JingleHell - Throws his votes/suspicion around several players, then settles on Obvious for most of D1
iamperfection - FOS on Calgar/YourHarry, then votes Obvious after the "list" post
Tube - Spends most of D1 defending himself, then votes Obvious midway into D1
EvulRabbitz - Few posts/no FOS's, then votes Obvious for his vote on Tube
Fulla - few posts, casts suspicion on Tube/Obvious, then votes Obvious close to the deadline
On voting patterns alone, YourHarry and Evul stick out the most.
Evul's filter consists of contentless-posts, then votes for Obvious.660. He hasn't casted a single FOS all game and has been pretty anti-discussion overall. Given that he just requested a replacement, I'm not sure if this is due to scum-motivated lurkiness (as the town lynches its own members) or simple inactivity.
YourHarry's quick voteswitch to JingleHell looks REALLY suspicious to me - especially the content of his voteswitch post. Pay attention to his changing attitude/reasoning towards Jingle throughout the post.
On July 18 2012 02:56 YourHarry wrote:If you think this, then uh-oh, you would be even more suspicious of me. I forgot to mention that when 3 people suddenly stacked on Obvious.660, I had my vote on him also, which made 4 votes. 3 sudden votes in the course of one hour, when Obvious.660 made it clear that he won't be able to comeback to defend himself, makes the voters scummy. And I - of course being town- can't help but suspect that scums are pushing Obvious.660 mislynch and then blame me (the first person to accuse Obvious.660 with little reason) for the mislynch. And I am not exactly accusing Jingle for not being logical. I find it suspicious that Jingle is quickly dismissing your defense of Obvious.660 though. So if I am right and some of the scums are quickly targeting Obvious.660, their motivation could be two fold. Obviously to mislynch Obvious.660. And to distract the town from suspecting one of the scums. Who was being accused at the time? Tube. FOS Tube and Jingle. I am OK with either lynch. Maybe we should go with Tube since Jingle has history with some of the players here, which would hopefully make it easier for townies to read if he is mafia indeed. ##Unvote##Vote tube
This looks sooooo scummy. First he says that he's suspicious of Jingle for dismissing my defense of Obvious, then he fingerpoints at Tube, then he removes his vote from Jingle (WAT!??!?!).
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@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").
Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!
Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."
FOS iamperfection
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I'm not suggesting there isn't an active mafia - I'm suggesting that it's stupid to assume so. You decry Hopeless1der's "policy talk," then turn around and set a policy of "THERE MUST BE ACTIVE MAFIA."
What do you mean you weren't suspicious of Jingle? What else is the purpose of this then?
On July 18 2012 22:50 iamperfection wrote: There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 11:16 JingleHell wrote:
As it is, if he doesn't get NKed, we have almost 3 full days before deadline to try and force him to defend himself.
If, by then, he hasn't, he deserves what he gets. ? What is your goal jingle? Do you want to win or do you want to be just justfied in your reasoning for when you get lynches. What purpose does this comment make? Well if perfection flips town he deserved it so dont look at me it was his fault not mine. Our goal is to win not to look good in our reasoning. It dosent matter if your reasoning is solid it has to be right.
Dunno about others, but this reads as "I'm suspicious of Jingle."
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@ Calgar - Are you still standing behind the (assuming vigi exists) vigi hit? We have to make a decision about this in less than 5 hours.
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Oh forgot to clarify, I'm very suspicious of iamperfection's recent posts, and the only sentiment in his favor seems to be Jingle's "this is too easy" argument.
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Vig can role-claim after he shoots. Since the vig is useless at that point (used his/her 1 time blue ability), a claim confirms a town identity at no risk.
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On July 19 2012 04:32 iamperfection wrote:So you want me to throw out fingers of suspicon that really would serve no purpose other than to be used against me later. What purpose would fos serve the game will change in a few hours and as town the very little information we get come from the result of the night actions. Why be pigenholed now during the night. Its the same reason calgar is upset that jinglehell is trying to make a final be all decesion on who vig should kill. Also you didnt answer the question. my position on obvious was by far the worse i can do nothing to change on what i posted on day 1. Why wouldnt i just make a throwaway vote and semi bandwagon later on sombody else with less votes if i was a lurking mafia?
I'm assuming the "throw out FOS" bit is in regards to my linked reply. I'm saying to take a strong stance against someone. You're wishy-washy and simply throw around suspicion without committing anywhere. This is a mafia-trait.
TBH, I don't even understand your question. Its not like you voted for Obvious - you voted for him when his fate was still in question. How does your vote for Obvious vindicate you?
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EBWOP:
Its not like you voted for Obvious when he was set to be lynched -
Instead of:
Its not like you voted for Obvious -
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So let me get this straight: you think everyone that voted for Obvious.660 to be not suspicious? All 5 people?
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EBWOP: All 5 surviving people
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EPT
