I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 3
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 14 2012 07:05 gonzaw wrote: What a shitty day. Only Vivax flipping scum would lighten it up but I doubt it at this point, specially since S&B/Keriathi/etc all voted Vivax without much incentive (at least from what I read, maybe I missed something when I skimmed it) I didn't vote Vivax at all. I refused to vote him, in fact. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 14 2012 07:57 marvellosity wrote: Am I allowed to shout at Risen for shouting at me for defending Vivax now? No. You were right about him but voted him anyways. You dont get the right to shout at someone about your arguments being correct if you didn't really believe them yourself. In fact I would make the argument that it gives people the right to shout at you. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 15 2012 06:48 marvellosity wrote: there isn't much more than i've said in my filter. I thought Dropbear's contribution was pretty bad but the all round aggression made me think he was townie I defended Vivax on his meta and then basically I had to choose who was more likely to flip scum between him and Dropbear. In the end it was just the fact that I'd got some townie vibes from Dropbear this game rather than thinking someone was townie because of other games I guess. I find it pretty difficult to explain actually (i tried shortly after the lynch and just ended up deleting it). I'm not at all used to lynching people who aren't my choice (as either alignment!) Did you even say who your choice was? All I seem to remember was a bunch of non-commital reads and saying you were frustrated that there wasn't an easy target. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I will make a quick note that that I'm pretty flippin' suspicious of sciberbia. I'll look more into the tali cases, and post my case against scib in the morning though. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
sciberbia wrote: I'm feeling like vivax would be my personal top choice right now followed by Keirathi, but nobody else seems that interested in lynching them. sciberbia wrote: That said, I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear because the only players I find definitively scummier than him (you and Vivax) don't seem to be getting lynched. sciberbia wrote: I think there is least resistance to a dropbear lynch. I'd be willing to consolidate on dropbear. Is anyone strongly opposed to a dropbear lynch? sciberbia wrote: @marv vote vivax already. he has a lot of votes and you're suspicious of him I can't really say why this bothers me, but the fact that Vivax ended up being lynched really made this series of posts stand out as strange to me, especially the last one. Marv had voiced suspicions on literally everyone that was a lynch candidate at that point (Vivax, Drop, and Risen) and wanted an austin vote which scib strongly disagreed with. + Show Spoiler + On July 15 2012 20:42 sciberbia wrote: I feel much better about my reads right now than I did D1. Here are top 3 most suspicious: 1) talismania: I really want to lynch him. 2) gonzaw: I have a few minor points against him, but other than that it's gut feeling. He reminds me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV. gonzaw and talis are linked as scumbuddies in my mind. I want to see talis flip red before we lynch gonzaw. 3) keirathi: still seems somewhat suspicious; mostly for reasons I've already stated I really need a break from this game so I'm just going to make a case on talismania before getting some much-needed sleep. It's almost 7am here. I'll post thoughts on other people tomorrow. My case on talismania fixation on his plan This has already been talked about in other cases; those of austinmcc and miltonkram I believe. It's a bit weird how wrapped up he gets in proposing his plan, defending his plan, and analyzing reactions to his plan. In particular, I find his assemblage of reactions suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 00:43 talismania wrote: Reactions to talismania's Shitty Plan (for those who care) + Show Spoiler + marvellosity On July 12 2012 09:47 marvellosity wrote: naw, I'm not killing anyone based on one post right at the beginning of the game (especially as pregame was quite active/friendly, it spilled over) I'd rather lynch talis for his never-ending bullshit on listing names and reasons. Seriously, 24 hours into day 1 and we're supposed to come up with reasons on 3 different people for why they might be scum? It's just nonsense. Or... wait for it... I have an idea! If someone says something a person finds scummy, they can call them out and bring it to the thread! Wow, marv, you say - an amazing plan! People shouldn't be 'forced' to make effort, the making of the effort willingly is what helps gives us our reads on people. Predictably shits on it, suggests policy lynching me out of his annoyance that I keep proposing these dumb plans. gonzaw On July 12 2012 09:36 gonzaw wrote: So, if the lynch was right now I'd want to kill one of these 3 guys: You can see the recurring theme in all 3 (just 1 post, promising something/appearing they are eager to start but not doing anything else later). marv, talismania, anybody active, what do you think about these guys? If you had to kill one of them which one would you choose and why? (if you don't want to kill anyone then say so). Also this guy could die too: But at least he put a little bit more effort (although that's not town-telling) Dropbear and Milton haven't even posted, but well we can't do anything about it. Actually follows the plan - as I said seems rather townie. Especially the timing. Mattchew On July 12 2012 10:46 Mattchew wrote: Also, talis has the worst plan ever with his 3 people thing. That just allows people to half ass push some stupid reads and then connections theories run wild and everything turns to shit shits on it solstice On July 12 2012 11:04 s0Lstice wrote: Keirathi, assuming you are still around... why so verbose about lurkers? what do you think of talismania's plan? I actually don't see him reacting to it at all yet he asks keirathi about it. Interesting. He did react to gonzaw's post reacting to mine. austinmcc On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote: That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful. What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning. Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw? Actually this reads scummy again on the second go-round too. He says he's about to "add" something but literally just copies/expands on what marv said and doesn't add anything at all. Keirathi On July 12 2012 11:54 Keirathi wrote: Sorry was getting dinner. I was verbose because I have some shared experience with sciberbia, whom I was replying to. I know that most (all?) of his TL mafia experience was in newbie games, and the dynamic is just different when you can assume that people know how to play the game. As far as talismania's plan, I feel like it makes it too easy for mafia to blend in. The more townies you have making arguments against other townies, the easier you can push mislynches and not have to take any blame for them. There are other things wrong with it, but Mattchew and austin beat me to it. No need rehashing what they said. Mmm I think this is innocuous. He might not even have responded if he hadn't been asked to. DropBear On July 12 2012 15:18 DropBear wrote: This is silly. This isn't going to happen and would just waste time. On the majority lynch, day 1 this tends to be a right kerfuffle. I can't think of any system that has ever worked on day 1 in games I have been part of. So fuck a system, we deal with it when the time comes. There should be solid candidates by then anyway. Actually this doesn't sit that well with me at all. Conversation had started to move on and then he brings it back to my plan and says the same shit everyone else did. I also don't like his misrepresentation of my views on the roleblocker's use of their power. strongandbig On July 12 2012 16:51 strongandbig wrote: Hey bros For people who weren't in ssb or mtg mafias, just wanted to let you guys know I am currently in Europe, where I don't have a cell phone data plan. This means I can only post when I have wifi, which is a change from my normal method. I've also been busy at work so please don't expect much from me before 8pm CET. Now for serious stuff: I'm going to be watching marv like a motherfuking hawk. I think hosts tend to try to "balance" games sometimes by tweaking their scum team selection; however, that can and has led to extra info from town through balance speculation. Marvellosity makes an extremely tempting player for hosts to do this kind of balancing, because his scum play is empirically very good, but he isn't a "veteran" so he's not likely to be the subject of balance speculation. I also suspect bugs of doing this kind of balancing. + Show Spoiler [reasons, from wheel of fortune.] + The last of his c++ games I played in was wheel of fortune. That was a stacked game and I was one of the worst players in it, although I did eventually manage to figure out the scum team (and got shot for having correct reads before I could push some of them). With the benefit of hindsight, that scum team looks almost perfectly balanced for the player base. Radfield was town, ace was scum. VE and Forumite were both good players, but only on the edge of being full-on vets. I firmly believe that town would have won that game if Radfield hadn't decided to use a DT check on Ace, who was godfather. That kind of closeness is the sign of a well-balanced game; and the odds that both town and scum would have their best player as their best power role are very small from pure chance. So what does this mean? I am NOT proposing to policy lynch marvellosity; if he's town he can be a great asset, and besides that's totally against the spirit of the game. What I AM saying is that I think when someone points out something scummy he does, we should take it pretty seriously. Pure chance wouldn't explain why he has rolled scum in something like half his games since our first game together (noob 6) while I have rolled it once - him being good and me not does explain that. NOW: having told you why you should pay attention, I'm going to point out something scummy marv has done. That thing is: propose/say he would be okay with lynching Talismania. Talismania's plan IS anti town. When Ace is host and he tells an obs QT how good a plan is for scum, you better believe he knows what he's talking about. Systematic case proposing plans give scum an excuse to make shitty reads and blend in, because everyone is making shitty cases and dumb reads. That kind of plan dilutes good information and adds bad information. HOWEVER: Talismania proposes this plan as town. All the time. Like, every game. Usually "pushing scummy plans" is a decent scum tell; but this specific player pushing this specific plan is not. And Marvellosity should know this. Marv has obs'd at least two games where Talismania proposed this plan or a variation of it (ssb, bangbang). Tali has proposed this in other games. Marv is the kind of player who pays attention; he should also know that I've pushed tali hard for these plans in the past, as have others. Marv putting tali forward as his first lynch candidates comes down to an easy push on an easy target for reasons he should know are bad. Marv, I'm watching you. + Show Spoiler [on Talismania, briefly] + I'm not saying tali is an easy target in general, like kenpachi or grush would be. He's not that kind of shitty player slash bad case magnet. It's just that for marv to propose him for lynch based on that plan is scummy. He's right about me always pushing this idea althoguh I think he's overreacting to marv's reaction. So actually not that many people commented on it even though I thought like everyone did oops. My views: scummy responses: austinmcc, dropbear null responses: marv, mattchew, keirathi, strongandbig townie response: gonzaw did not respond directly although was in the thread: Risen, sciberbia, solstice This just feels like one of those busy-work summaries that scum do to make it look like they are contributing. It also ties in with his insisting that his plan has promoted discussion. Overall, all this talk about the plan is unproductive and slightly suspicious. consistently wishy/washy Here are some examples of some wishy/washiness. Several of these raise yellow flags for me: + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote:I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: solstice: I really like the case marv made on him, actually, but for some reason I don't know if I can move beyond a null on him. Like I think the first half of his filter is scummy (the part marv showed), the second half townie. Overall he is playing fairly relaxed, which is usually a town indicator as well. On the other hand he's also been fairly focused on just a couple players, which is a scum indicator. Keirathi: Well he's conditional town or conditional scum at this point. Like I think he was way too neutral in the beginning as someone else pointed out but he's also onto dropbear as I am. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:43 talismania wrote: actually that is a decent question. I originally ranked them that way in my head from way back when I analyzed reactions to my posts and it sort of has stuck since then. Mmm I guess thinking it over I can't think of a fantastic reason for one over the other to be honest with you. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:00 talismania wrote: @risen I don't know what to make of the risen v vivax to be honest. I liked your case against him but I'm still stuck on dropbear. and if dropbear is scum I can't see vivax being scum either. mmm I better not be tunneling again like I did last time to HiroPro. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. especially that last one. seriously wtf.. I don't like his approach to the lynch I feel like we were just lynching between a bunch of townies yesterday. If I had to guess, I'd say there is only 1 scum between our many lynch candidates: dropbear, vivax, miltonkram, s0Lstice, austinmcc, risen, and keirathi. So I think the mafia must have felt very at ease and not really cared too much who actually got lynched. Talis was just too calm in the hour leading up to the lynch. For example, what was he doing in between these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:08 talismania wrote: I dunno. I'm starting to think my case on austin is actually stronger than my case on dropbear was in the first place to be perfectly honest. However milton and keirathi also brought up good points on dropbear I think. Unless they were just trying to nudge a bandwagon along? Mmm shit. Where has gonzaw gone? I kinda expect him to be in here cracking the whip near deadline. On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. This was a crucial 31 minutes. I don't think any of us actually had any idea who would end up being lynched at this time. But what was talis doing? Looks like he was just sitting around waiting for us to lynch a townie. In the last hour before the lynch, he really does nothing productive at all. He just says a bunch of neutralish things that don't really go anywhere. I also have serious problems with this post just after we lynched vivax: For reference, here is the full extent of his defense on Vivax: Seriously? He says that he hopes he is "completely wrong" about vivax, but he hardly defended Vivax at all. If he really felt strongly about Vivax being town, he should have been positively shouting at people like me/marv/austin/strongandbig to put votes on dropbear instead of vivax, especially seeing as dropbear was supposedly his #1 scumread. But he was just saying useless shit like this: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 06:39 talismania wrote: I kinda want to but I kinda don't. My feelings atm are that worst comes to worst, if I have to be wrong about someone I'd rather have a dead town dropbear than a dead town austin because at least austin seems to be trying. On July 14 2012 06:54 talismania wrote: argh wtf I don't want to swtich but I will if we need too. On July 14 2012 06:57 talismania wrote: jesus risen why are you so excited? According to what talis has said, he really thought dropbear was scum, and he really thought vivax was town. I was a hell of a lot less sure than talis supposedly was, and even I was more invested in the lynch. All of his posts leading up to the lynch seriously bother me. throws suspicion on easy targets (my townreads) He throws suspicion on a bunch of easy targets: dropbear, austin, risen, s0Lstice, milton. In fact, he threw suspicion onto just about every lynch candidate, and onto nobody that was not a lynch candidate. His reads are just going with the flow. I feel like he is just gonzaw's parrot. He's quite friendly with both gonzaw and marv (people with most thread control IMO). does not defend his townreads He never makes an against-the-grain townread. In his entire filter, I don't think he defends anybody at all. He supposedly had townreads on vivax, strongandbig, and mattchew, all 3 of which were under fire at some point, and none of which he did any defending for. This is suspicious to me. I have a really good feeling about this case. Can we please lynch talis today? ##Vote talismania This is his case against tali. A lot of it is a strong case (particularly the first 2 points) that I could get behind, but besides the obvious misunderstanding of tali's post at the end of d1 that was already gone over (point 3), I feel like the last 2 points are just stretching to add some more depth to your case and hoping no one checked up on it. 1) "Gonzaw's parrot" - + Show Spoiler + gonzaw Townie Reads: Vivax, solstice, scib, tali, me; Risen, me; austin, Scum Reads: Risen, S&B, matt; austin, S&B, me, drop, risen; S&B, tali, austin; Tali, Drop, solstice, matt, risen, me; Null Reads: marv, austin, Risen;; Arguments against: Drop, Risen, Milton, matt; matt, Risen; Matt, Risen, votes: Drop, me, vivax;;tali (Note: the ;'s indicate changing from day to night and vice versa) That's just a quick list and I probably missed some. You could claim that literally anyone was gonzaw's parrot and you'd be mostly correct. As far as I can tell, tali has only really made pushes for Drop and austin, so its a pretty weak argument imo. (As an aside, it also bugs me that you use particular phrases that other people have used i.e Risen calling s0lstice "Vivax's parrot" and gonzaw saying marv was trying to "lynch all his town reads". I don't think this is a particularly strong point, because the phrases arent unique, it was just something I noticed.) 2) The defending town reads point - I don't find those town reads. Care to point them out? | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
But by this point, I had already done all the "towntelling" things that you give matt poins for pointing out in your Matt defense post. What happened to change your mind when I really didn't do anything during the night and was out of town for basically the entire day? | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Also I really don't know what I think about tali. There's so many cases against him, and they are all decent, but none of them are damning I think. Maybe enough little things adds up to him being scum, but I remain unconvinced. Almost everything about him is either directly relating to his plan, or relating to things that branched out from his plan. I agree that his plan was really bad and I don't want to support bad play, but like Milton pointed out, he was entirely too invested in it. I don't really see scum as staying that invested into pushing something to intentionally bring attention onto himself. Something about this case and being so little opposition just feels bandwagonny. If I'm wrong, it probably means I get lynched tomorrow because of this post though ![]() | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
24 hours ago, his lynch was by no means certain. Reminds me of a post someone made yesterday about there being 2 options: 1) Scum Tali: Correct play is to push other targets while deflecting attacks on you 2) Town Tali: Correct play is to push other targets and defelect attacks on you Neither of the correct responses is to disappear for 24 hours. I feel like disappearing is more of a frustrated townie trait than a frustrated scum one. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:05 austinmcc wrote: If you don't want to vote for talis, then who DO you want to vote for? My top 3 candidates are (in no specific order): sciberbia, Mattchew, Risen With big MAYBES on talismania and DropBear. I wouldn't really feel comfortable voting anyone else, and probably won't vote Tali even though I have him as a maybe. | ||
Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:12 s0Lstice wrote: you are assuming he plays 'correctly.' what's the incorrect town response? Erm. An incorrect response is anything but the correct response :o | ||
Keirathi
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:23 gonzaw wrote: So talis has 6 votes only, the minimum amount to lynch If someone unvotes talis you better have a fucking good reason to, since you'll force NL. Keirathi what are you planning to do? And will you answer those questions I presented to you? (I.e I want your thoughts on other issues, not just talis/sciberbia). I'm not sure I can write up a solid post in 30 minutes before the day ends, but I can just give you some freehand thoughts about each of them. Risen - I laid out a case against him on day1, then I was thrown for a loop by his balls-to-the-wall posting style at the end of day1. It initially gave me cause to vote Drop instead of him because I wasn't sure what to make of it, but when Vivax flipped town and he started the moaning about being suprised he was so long, I started leaning back more towards him being scum and the whole thing was a ruse. Coupled with the fact that he hasn't done much today, I feel like he is a reasonably strong candidate. Mattchew - Obviously everyone has already talked about him being absent and leaving his vote on sciberbia d1, then not giving much in the way of explanation. But I'm actually more interested in the sciberbia+mattchew connection. His vote on day1 was a total throwaway vote on sciberbia who had 0 chance of getting lynched, his case against tali came just a few hours after sciberbia's case against Tali (and objectively felt pretty weak, but that's neither here nor there), and then sciberbia came to his defense and wrote out a long post about him being townie. None of that is particularly terrible, but if you think about it with them as a scumteam, it's pretty fishy. s0lstice/s&b - I'm pretty staunchly null on both of them. Running out of time so I'll give more info on them after the flip. | ||
Keirathi
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Keirathi
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I don't really think Drop or s0lstice are great cases either. So who the eff to vote for. My gut read on a throwaway vote, or the popular read with no conviction?! | ||
Keirathi
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Keirathi
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On July 17 2012 06:54 sciberbia wrote: fuck gtg talis's last couple posts are giving me a sickly feeling, but I feel like we have to lynch him. I hope to god he is scum cuz I'm going to feel great if he is and terrible if he's not I'll be back in a little while x_x That's the exact same shit you did on day1 ![]() All the conviction until the last minute then suddenly you don't believe it anymore when its already too late to do anything about it. | ||
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