SSB-64 Mafia
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
First of all, as it has already been revealed, I am indeed Samus. (First pick, was second in Draft. - So much for your meta iGrok! :p) I will be using my shot as the majority wants to, unless I feel you're about to do something totally retarded, or that scum manipulating the shot is likely (whether it's by gaining control of discussion or having a busdriver/roleblocker/medic). So as long as I'm alive, you can count + 1.5 KP for town from me. If at some point I feel shooting is a bad idea and there are others whom agree with me, I will refrain from shooting. (The last thing we want is to lose the game by killing all of town with our own KP.) I think roleclaims should be reduced to a minimum, as we don't want the scum to gain any additional information (Possible roleblocks, medics, vigs, etc.). The only exception being Mario, if we decide to go with the "Possible Mario's claim and try to gain the item" -plan. In that case I hope that whatever item they will be gaining, if they are not transparent of it's usage, they should get lynched. I would like to go for the item since I know that I am town, and if I decide to sit out as Town, it increases the possibility of scum gaining the item. I am willing to sit out with talismania if the majority wants to though. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
We could either go for a full split, forcing all the suspicious players into the same bunch, or go with a more even split (2 seemingly town, 2 slightly suspicious), to try and ensure some kp on the more suspicious players. If someone would do against the majority's wishes without a valid reasoning, they could be lynched or shot. The average KP we take from the stage event is 1.33, but it can range from 0 to 4. Basically, the less we split, the higher the chance of an extreme is. (By this I mean that we could end up taking either nothing at all, or a ton of KP.) | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 02:26 iGrok wrote: Oh, ceph, you cheeky bastard. I think my idea of having players choose other's zones would be best. We can gai na lot of info based on who they pair/decide to sit out. I do agree that can gain some good information if I understood you correctly. So what you're suggesting is that we move down this list (Player list, or do you mean another randomly generated one?): 1) Igrok 2) Cephiro 3) Mister Saturn (HiroPro + strongandbig) 4) grush57 5) talismania 6) kingdedede (Artanis[Xp] + Acrofales) 7) HomerunBat (ShiaoPi + s0Lstice) 8) Risen And then taking turns everyone gets to decide whom goes where, and others should do as told or risk getting punished? Please clarify how you mean to go about it. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 00:28 Toadesstern wrote: ALSO A REMINDER WE NEED INFORMATION ON STAGE EVENTS AND ITEM PLACES BY THE END OF 22:30 GMT (+00:00). IF YOU DON'T SEND IN STAGE EVENT INFORMATION YOU WILL GET HIT BY A TORNADO NO MATTER WHAT. IF YOU DON'T SEND IN ITEM INFORMATION YOU WON'T GET A CHANCE TO GET AN ITEM BUT ALSO WON'T GET HIT IF SOMEONE ELSE IS IN THE SAME PLACE, SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO SEND THAT IN ^ reply to kingdedede So yes, I take the way Toad puts it that we can decide to not go for an item, but if you decide to "Skip" the stage event, you get punished. (And in this stage that means an automatic tornado hit, causing a -0.5 KP loss.) | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 02:37 talismania wrote: yeah you can sit out the item part without getting damage, toad just said so (and it says so in the op). I don't particularly understand this pick for other people thing... I think I'm just going to stand in the middle if that's cool with everyone. Think of it as a complex voting. Whomever picks whatever does it for a reason (most likely, although there is a small possibility that someone would go totally random about it.). However, mafia is more likely to think their decision through. If they decide to go for "optimal" play, it is much more likely that they are able to be linked to each other. So it's very much about risk/reward balancing for mafia, as if they try to go for optimal mafia play, they are more likely to get caught, but if they try to play it safe, they also won't most likely gain as good results. And not only do we gain information whom whoever is deciding, but if there are persons that disagree / do not follow the plan, we will hear their thoughts on why they do not agree, or then just straight up punish them for it. I like iGrok's idea tbh. How I see it as a TL;DR version: More actions from players = More information to go by from. I'm fine with iGrok deciding everyone's position on the board today. (Better let me hug a tornado if we end up deciding this! ♥) | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Well, at least if there's anyone that doesn't follow the plan, we'll have our target for the day. On July 03 2012 03:45 kingdedede wrote: There's not enough time for everybody to be king and planet zebes doesn't have that kind of stage, or do you suggest to have the randomly decided king tell everybody who to push? It could be, but life isn't always fair. We could always ask someone else to do the picks if we feel that it would give us more information than going by the list. As for Zebes, in my opinion it should be considered as extra lynch power. It's not as powerful (1 KP compared to normal lynch having 1.5 KP), but it's still a valuable tool. Most importantly, it has to be used, as anyone not voting takes 1 KP, so everyone will be forced to responsibility of their vote, and this is another way for us to gain more information. I am following King iGrok into the Valley Of Tornadoes. Are you with me? | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I like that Risen is being critical to what iGrok is pushing, but for what reasons? Why is it better to spread ourselves than all be at the same spot? It all comes down to randomness, and if we do it "by list", then there is nothing to go by from. I'd say iGrok's decision of putting all players on the same stage event tells us much more than just going by list, which would tell us nothing. So Risen, is there an absolute reason why you do not want to stand on left like most (if not everyone else) of us? I'll give though that I do not entirely agree with iGrok's reasoning of reducing the action count, as it does possibly the same for scum also. For now though, I do not see cons that outweigh the pros. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 05:59 Risen wrote: Exactly WHAT does standing on the same platform tell us? It tells us NOTHING. 1) It gives us insight on iGrok's thoughts. (He made a very neutral/safe choice, punishing everyone or no-one, not grouping people yet, which he however IS doing in his item picks/sit-outs. He also gave a valid reasoning, it may not necessarily be the optimal choice, but I haven't seen anyone else give a better idea yet.) 2) The reactions of the players on iGrok's choices. (For example, you insist on not going left with everyone, which you haven't given a valid reason for. Or talismania willing to sit-out, even though there is no risk of a fight [Stock loss] if people follow the plan.) So tell me, have a better idea? For now all I am seeing is that you are saying you are not going to follow the plan. (Which you say is because this gives us no information, which is false.) And in your latest posts you were thinking of dividing by the list. (Which doesn't give us any information at all.) I can say it's not much, but it's better than nothing, and we need something to get the scumhunting started. If you're still going to go against the plan without either a) Giving a better idea or b) Giving proper reasoning, then you're certainly not looking good in my eyes. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:13 Risen wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:13 Cephiro wrote: 1) It gives us insight on iGrok's thoughts. (He made a very neutral/safe choice, punishing everyone or no-one, not grouping people yet, which he however IS doing in his item picks/sit-outs. He also gave a valid reasoning, it may not necessarily be the optimal choice, but I haven't seen anyone else give a better idea yet.) 2) The reactions of the players on iGrok's choices. (For example, you insist on not going left with everyone, which you haven't given a valid reason for. Or talismania willing to sit-out, even though there is no risk of a fight [Stock loss] if people follow the plan.) So tell me, have a better idea? For now all I am seeing is that you are saying you are not going to follow the plan. (Which you say is because this gives us no information, which is false.) And in your latest posts you were thinking of dividing by the list. (Which doesn't give us any information at all.) I can say it's not much, but it's better than nothing, and we need something to get the scumhunting started. If you're still going to go against the plan without either a) Giving a better idea or b) Giving proper reasoning, then you're certainly not looking good in my eyes. Found the other scum. Two total? Easy game. How about you answer the questions properly and start playing the game instead of toying around? Or is it because you have no answer? For all I see you are just casting shit on iGrok's idea, but you are providing absolutely nothing useful yourself. If you think I am scum for supporting his current stance more than yours, you're retarded. Start doing stuff that benefits the town instead of casting shit on the content others provide, when you provide nothing yourself. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:23 Risen wrote: How about you read my filter and find the answers since I've already posted them. You're incompetent and lazy, or scum. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say scum. What is this, I don't even.... I've looked through your filter several times, and all your reasoning is this: 1) In your opinion, everyone losing stock (33% chance), is worse off for town than mafia. You back this up because in your opinion when scum is found, the town can just blob everything at them and they die instantly. What makes you think we are able to kill scum just like SNAP? They have picked a role just like everyone else, and will use it to their advantage. Sure, we have lynches but it still takes time to kill them, and every mislynch would hurt us even more. Not to mention that they could have doublevoters and we wouldn't. Or how are you going to convince the rest of the town that someone is scum, if all you do is point fingers saying "I think that plan sucks, let's kill him, he must be scum." 2) In your opinion iGrok is suggesting a pro-mafia plan. On July 03 2012 04:26 Risen wrote: Want to minimize mafia chance of item while maximizing town chance so we're not double stacking? Then have us go down the list in numerical order and say that's left, bottom left, center, etc. Same for left, center, right on the position discussion. I'm going to be voting iGrok for lynch at this point. You criticize him for leaving two people out. You say it will increase the mafia chance of gaining an item. That's true if the persons whom sit-out are town. However, if even one of his sit-out picks is mafia, it decreases the chance of them gaining an item. How is going down the list in numerical order any better? Now we can ask iGrok for his reasoning and hold him responsible, but if we do everything by the list, it gives us no information at all. I'll end with this: Your criticism against iGrok's plan: On July 03 2012 05:59 Risen wrote: Exactly WHAT does standing on the same platform tell us? It tells us NOTHING. Your own plan: On July 03 2012 05:40 Risen wrote: I disagree. Scum gets no info from spreading ourselves out based on the list and leading town to do things doesn't seem pro-town to me at all. Have a look in the mirror, Mr. NoInfo | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18% Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19% The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong. Can you explain me why your plan is better? Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote: Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town? If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18% Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19% The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong. Can you explain me why your plan is better? Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio. End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well. Assuming everyone stands left and gets hit by tornado (33% chance) Town stock before Tornado = 6 x 3 = 18 Mafia stock before Tornado = 2 x 3 = 6 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 18 : 6 -> 3 : 1 Town stock after Tornado = 6 x 2.5 = 15 Mafia stock after Tornado = 2 x 2.5 = 5 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 15 : 5 -> 3 : 1 .... I still don't get what you are going at. What information do we get from "everyone stands where they want" then? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 03 2012 06:57 Risen wrote: The risk taken by all of us standing on one square is higher than spreading ourselves out. False. Expected damage average is 1.33 KP in every situation. And you have no way of controlling whom it goes to. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:00 Risen wrote: And then when we go into night what happens Cephiro? We have a smaller buffer against night actions if we all get hit. The mafia has a smaller buffer against night actions also. Scum has 1 KP + Possible Role KP. Town has 0 KP + Possible Role KP. Given that town has 6 persons and mafia assumingly has 2, I think it evens out quite well. On top of that, remember there are roles that can mitigate / reflect damage, such as Donkey Kong, Fox, Ness, Jigglypuff, Yoshi + (Kirby). I just can't see why you think a smaller buffer is absolutely worse for town than scum. Scum has +1 KP during night, whereas Town has a triple amount of roles, + if Town manages to co-operate properly, the lynch KP during day which is 1.5 KP. | ||
Cephiro
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Cephiro
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Cephiro
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On July 03 2012 07:15 iGrok wrote: shoot me if you want, it was a derp I think top left as the first zone and so I put myself there. You should probably be able to guess why i picked you, you're scum. On the bright side of this derp, scum's at 2 stock lol. I think it's fairly possible that you derped, since I don't see any other scum motive for doing that trading stock with a 1:2 ratio, but taking on top the fact it would out you, I sincerely don't think you would be that stupid. So I believe iGrok just derped on this one. Why are you so sure Saturn is scum though? If I understood right, you've had to choose whom you carry at the start of the game = Before anyone has even posted. So are you just being sarcastic or what...? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 03 2012 07:19 iGrok wrote: Start of the game. I made it later though Care to clarify the later part? | ||
Cephiro
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Cephiro
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On a more serious note, I think now that the stage & item events are done, we should concentrate on whom to lynch, as we only have less than 24 hours to decide. I'm personally not sold on iGrok being scum just because that derp, since I do not believe it is something scum would have done on purpose. (I hope everyone can see why and I don't have to explain.) Adding the fact that lynching iGrok causes -1.5 Stock for Saturn too, I don't think he should be lynched today. And I still don't like Risen's reasoning for what he's been doing. Just causing more confusion, pretty much. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:34 iGrok wrote: Even if you think I'm scum, you shouldn't be lynching me tonight. You already know my role. Lynch me tomorrow when Saturn's going to shoot me, and find out someone's role today For all we know, Saturn could be dead by tomorrow. As lynch is -1.5 KP on top of role reveal, who are your top picks for lynch currently? Also, could you tell your reasoning behind picking Saturn? | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
So why Talismania? According to what I've written up, his only notable actions are: 1) Following your plan, although possibly slightly reductantly 2) Offering to sit-out for the item (as he appareantly did as well) 3) Trying to metagame the setup None of these ring the scum bell for me yet. (I was slightly suspicious of number two first, as it could be seen from a scum perspective trying to avoid the ~1/6 chance of a fight and lose stock, and trying to look more pro-town by willingly sitting out, but since if everything had gone according to plan [you wouldn't have derped], no fight would have happened, so there would have been no risk.) I'd like to see Homerunbat & grush57 & talismania contribute / take part in the discussion more though. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Not liking iGrok's lack of reasoning currently. grush is also an easy pick due to a very lurky playstyle up till now. I'll go to sleep soon, I won't place my vote until tomorrow, I want to see how things advance first. If you have questions to me before I go, ask now. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
There is however one interesting bit that stuck out to me slightly: On July 02 2012 20:03 HomerunBat wrote: I must admit, I have a hard time believing a bus driver being town-aligned, given the random (at least I assume so) distribution of alignment it is not out of the realm of possibility though. -Shiao He instantly stuck onto kingdedede's claim whereas everyone else seems to have mostly ignored it. (Or just acknowledged and moved on.) | ||
Cephiro
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@Saturn, I'll give you my thoughts on HomerunBat again once I'm back, he'll hopefully have posted more by that. | ||
Cephiro
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2 hours until lynch right? Sorry everyone for not being more active, but the issue had to be dealt with.. | ||
Cephiro
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I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me. He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads. Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking. Rank: 6 Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.) And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.) Rank: 8 ##Vote: Risen Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today. Rank: 7 talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch. Rank: 4 My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Lower rank = Better. Ranking is based on the order I want people to lose stock in. This means that I may lean more scum on someone above Grush, but at the moment he is so useless and I have absolutely no read on him that I wouldn't mind seeing him lose some if it's the only way we'll get him to talk. If it goes to a MYLO/LYLO-situation I don't want him around since it's absolutely impossible to determine which alignment he is. | ||
Cephiro
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If necessary I will move my vote from Risen to grush, but I do not agree with lynching talismania yet. | ||
Cephiro
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Cephiro
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##Vote: Risen Now if they miss it I'll be damned. ~50 minutes till lynch right? | ||
Cephiro
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Rank: 5 Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1. Rank: 3 | ||
Cephiro
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So if I understood right, the one with the most votes gets lynched, or do we need the majority (5 votes) for the lynch still? I will not be voting for anyone but Risen or grush57 today. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 04 2012 06:41 Risen wrote: Saturn's claim of "not trusting himself" reads to me as either the emokid everyone should hate townie or scum trying to play like that. Don't know how you only have him at a 5. He would be at 6 otherwise, but at the moment your play smells scum the most according to my nose. And grush is completely useless. That leaves only homerunbat, and at the moment I consider one not trusting themselves less of a threat rather than one who is trying to not get in trouble with anyone. When he argues, he makes sure not to agitate anyone, and I don't see him really pressuring people so far either. Homerun, what do you think about dedede & Risen? | ||
Cephiro
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Please elaborate, dear. Scum because I am making sure on how the lynch works, or scum because I won't vote for anyone but you or grush (my strongest scumread and the most useless player in the game)? | ||
Cephiro
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##vote: grush57 Ensuring that no possible pikas kill talis today. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 04 2012 06:56 Risen wrote: Normally I wouldn't have a problem with you, but I feel like you're sticking to your guns on me b/c you want to appear like a dumb townie (look at me giving everyone the benefit of the doubt this game. See how it works? I don't think you're actually dumb, just trying to look dumb) Explain me what on earth in your game is pro-town so far? You bashed on a plan for the damage town would take and for the lack of information. Your own plan was much more likely to hurt town even more compared to scum than iGrok's, and your list-split would have given us absolutely no information at all. Basically, you called out someone's plan as anti-town due to 2 different reasons, but you suggest a plan that is even worse in these two categories. So your plan was even more anti-town according to your own criteria. Since then you've been flip-flopping between scum iGrok, scum Cephiro, scum Homerunbat, scum Talismania, scum grush. Either I'm fucking dumb and don't get it or your play is extremely anti-town. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 04 2012 07:00 Risen wrote: EBWOP: The fuck you cephiro should be taken in a humorous manner, not in a mean-spirited one. <3 Not only are you vote-switching like a true scum but you're toying with my emotions too. I'll make love to you once you hang! :p | ||
Cephiro
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On a more serious note, Captain Falcon? This is more like Shoot Some Brothers x 64 Mafia! I'm not really sure what to think of the insane amount of KP Roles. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 04 2012 07:28 talismania wrote: So now there's two samuses and at least one falcon. Can we all agree that I'm not that crazy to think of the setup here? It wasn't done randomly (or at least I really doubt it) and I can't see toad putting all three of those kp roles on town, especially given my role. It does seem extremely unlikely, but on the other hand town possibly mis-shooting has to be taken into account also. Not to mention busdrivers / roleblockers / medics / hiding foxes. I'm still going to try and concentrate on playing based on the filters, and so far I don't mind grush losing 1.5 stock at all. On July 04 2012 07:29 Risen wrote: I think it's safe to assume that scum was on both sides. Tali/grush scum team imo I hope you're kidding. Only scum up for lynch on D1? That's not even realistic in fairyland. | ||
Cephiro
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If player A targets B, but player B is busdrived with player A, player A becomes the target of his own action. If player A targets B, but player A is busdrived with player C, player B remains the target of player A's action. This is how I understand it. | ||
Cephiro
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I'd also like to remind that unless I understood it wrong, if you hit iGrok tonight, Saturn will take damage as well. (Unless someone hits iGrok and there is a medic on Saturn). Could the mods confirm if my assumption is right, that if the DK decides to change his carried player, it only takes effect starting from the next day? | ||
Cephiro
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I know it will be more of a clusterfuck for you poor mods, but if we proceed with the plan and everyone is fine with me picking the item locations, I would like to see the results of night actions before deciding, thus I'd rather suggest and send in the location during the first 24 hours of the daycycle. | ||
Cephiro
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I suppose one KP is scum and one is grush57 (Falcon)? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 07:13 grush57 wrote: T_T STFU CEPHIRO U GOT HEALED SCUM Wtf do you mean, did you shoot at me? O_o | ||
Cephiro
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I guess we'll have to wait for kingdedede to confirm this, as he claimed Yoshi at start. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 07:17 grush57 wrote: READ THREAD FIRST ;D I SHOT CPEHRIO Could you tell me why the hell did you shoot at me? If you're not even going to try and explain yourself I'll make sure I shoot you dead N2. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 07:18 kingdedede wrote: Hold your horses. That was hilarious. Bus driving is fun. Drove from Cephiro to Risen. shipborne cruise is an anagram for bus cephiro risen. We bused between someone we thought was town (cephiro) and someone we had as null and probably not going to be targeted by any nastiness (risen). Full explanation will follow. I'm looking forward for the full explanation, but currently I'm thinking that you just did probably the best bus a townie could ever do. Sick bus, good job! | ||
Cephiro
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##vote grush57 ^ Shot me (and scum KP too hmm?) and won't even give reasoning except "I'm so scummy". Lurking scum, you're dead. And we still have the "Zebes lynch", for -1 stock on someone else. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 07:28 talismania wrote: What do people think about the possibility of risen + grush? On July 05 2012 07:29 HomerunBat wrote: Zebes lynch goes to Saturn. Does anybody think he is not the 2nd scum? At the moment I am agreeing with my reads from yesterday = Risen scum, and after the night I find it fairly obvious that grush is the other scum. I'm really interested in what Risen's reaction is going to be.. | ||
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If the majority doesn't mind, I'll post which zone I want people to be in for the item when I'm back. @iGrok, I'd really prefer to see those thoughts of yours asap... they better be posted when I wake up! | ||
Cephiro
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So wait, if Risen is speaking the truth and got roleblocked, that means I not only took scum KP and grush's shot but a roleblock too? O_o So that would mean either talis, HomerunBat or Risen himself is a Jigglypuff. I'd have to guess it's one of the latter two, so Risen, did you try to roleblock me? Or is someone lying about their role? If everyone speaks the truth, then one of talis, HomerunBat and Risen has to be a jigglypuff, or then I'm missing something. | ||
Cephiro
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Also: iGrok: Top Middle Cephiro: Bot Middle kingdedede: Bot Left grush57: Sit Out Will decide the rest soon, I need to think a moment. | ||
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Talismania: Top Right Homerunbat: Bot Right Risen: Sit Out | ||
Cephiro
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If I understood it right, I got shot by scum + grush, dedede bussed me and Risen, Risen took a double hit, and he is a DK carrying iGrok, resulting in iGrok losing 2 stock also. | ||
Cephiro
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I don't know why I'm even asking, but Risen, I assume that you decided to carry iGrok because you think he is scum, and would cause him to lose stock if you would have got hit? (As happened.) | ||
Cephiro
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I'm not really liking this train on iGrok as it will kill him and reflects 1 stock of damage on someone else as well whom we have no idea of. Truth is though that he has promised to share his thoughts and analysis several times and he just keeps delaying it.. I'm going to wait with my push a bit closer to the deadline. But grush should be today's lynch. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 05 2012 20:01 HomerunBat wrote: remember to PM push choices to the hosts, don't think they count here. could be wrong though. Cephiro, are you considering switching iGrok and Risen on the item stances? I'm still having a hard time seeing why Risen is a townie based on his actions so far, and carrying my previously strongest townread doesn't exactly help that either. I'll have to read his filter again, but I just can't get over the fact that he was bashing a plan for attributes that his own plan was even worse at, and on top of that he's been changing his target rapidly. I just don't see it as something a townie would do. If he really is town, then he's playing really poorly in my opinion. (No offense.) So to answer your question, no, not yet. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:13 Risen wrote: Lol, iGrok your strongest town read? Igrok is no ones strongest town read what a joke. After igrok flips i think Cephiro needs to die next. Learn to read. Previously. I'd still kill you before iGrok happily. On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote: Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking? My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit. So because I changed my vote from you to grush (From the person I wanted killed the most, to the person I wanted killed the 2nd most), you think my vote was scummy? I seriously don't understand what the hell you are doing in this game, your logic is repeatingly blame others for the same flaws you do in a worse manner yourself. So your vote swap meant nothing, but my obvious late vote did? (Yeah, I said I would change to grush if you wouldn't get lynched, so how was it a scummy vote?) So again you are blaming someone for random shit, and painting yourself as innocent when if we look at things by your own logic, you are the most scummy player in the game. So yes, I think there is a scum outside of tali/grush/iGrok/Saturn. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:30 Risen wrote: It's legitimately hard for me to fathom you're town. I guess we agree on one thing then. :p | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:37 Risen wrote: Food for thought in the thread: bus cephiro and risen. Shoot cephiro. Dedede says: Hey guys look at my breadcrumb! Meanwhile in mafia chat: omg we got lucky and grush shot cephiro too! Scum team: dedede and cephiro. Any flaws in that logic? I like it, because it gives cephiro benefit of the doubt on not being horrible. Only problem is I really liked dedede. His name is so good :/ .... Just wow. Is there anyone but yourself left that you haven't accused of being scum now? Talk about grasping at straws. Could you please point me one single pro-town thing you've done this game? All you do is create new controversies to cause more confusion. Next night feel free to pick me up, because if you're alive I'm shooting you. On July 05 2012 20:39 Risen wrote: Smiley face. He's scum. ##push cephiro This logic. I cannot fathom. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:46 Risen wrote: Bad logic, you answer yourself. Look at how much town cred this got dedede and cephiro. Everyone is asking them for item/placements. Outrageous in execution, but it almost worked! If cephiro hadn't blundered I would never have thought about it. ... Clearly. I asked everyone if they are okay if we proceed with picking the items in the same way as yesterday, and some agreed. You sure know how to twist your words. If people are actually going to believe your bullshit and keep thinking you are town for whatever reason, I might as shoot myself tomorrow. All game long you come up with new scumteam combinations, go at it hard, then a few hours later you find something new to pick at, and some consider you town? Really? You've accused every single person in this game of being scum now. (Except yourself.) Do everyone a favour, take that break, and come back when you know what you are really thinking. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:57 HomerunBat wrote: Cephiro, I linked Risen's past games in an earlier post of mine. I'd like you to take a look. TL mafia LI and LIII. I never play based on meta-game, but I guess I can take a look. What am I supposed to see though? Does he really play like that as town, going around blaming everyone and bashing their plans, and suggesting pro-scum plans himself? I just can't understand that anyone could play town like that, and I've seen my fair share of bad townies. @ iGrok: Thanks for the reasoning post, was about time. So others, am I seriously still an idiot for believing that iGrok is town? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 21:13 Risen wrote: Yup, fuck this. I'm in san francisco and I refuse to carry you derps. Gg cephiro/dedede/grush/tali I guess since a smilie meant I'm scum, this defeatist attitude means you're a busted scum that gave up on all hope? Nice try, but not good enough. | ||
Cephiro
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##push Risen | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote: Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking? My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit. "My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all." Mafia Quote of the Year? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 05 2012 21:29 HomerunBat wrote: I think pushing Risen is going to result in two dead townies. So who is scum if Risen & grush aren't? Grush is obviously up for lynch, and he should be lynched to death today. Who would you suggest for Zebes push then? Tali, me, Saturn, dedede? | ||
Cephiro
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Cephiro
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Cephiro
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And if anyone is going to accuse someone of being scum, please back it up with a case or proper reasoning, we can't just go around like asshats and point fingers yelling "Scum!", I'm getting tired of seeing everyone screaming all possible combinations back and forth without reasoning for them. | ||
Cephiro
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This sucks. And grush lost stock too? I guess he forgot to send in a stage action? | ||
Cephiro
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On July 06 2012 07:15 talismania wrote: possible igrok changed his target to grush don't remember if he said anything about that. But it was clarified earlier that DK damage doesn't chain, if I recall correctly. So it pretty much has to be him forgetting, unless there was a tie between them and both Risen & grush got pushed into the lava because of that? | ||
Cephiro
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Cephiro
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Cephiro
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On July 07 2012 00:18 HomerunBat wrote: He is 100% correct. I think this is the scum team: Cephiro & Talismania Let's start with Cephiro. He is a town read to a lot of people. Why? He shit up the thread right off the bat arguing with Risen, and then tunneled him for the rest of the game. He buddied up to iGrok. These posts rang alarm bells for me the first time I read through them: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 05:49 Cephiro wrote: Back. I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me. He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads. Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking. Rank: 6 Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.) And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.) Rank: 8 ##Vote: Risen Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today. Rank: 7 talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch. Rank: 4 My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:39 Cephiro wrote: Mister Saturn: I was okay with his earlygame play, but since then he's gone all wishy-washy and saying he doesn't trust himself at all. He could be honest about it, or he could be scum looking for an easy way to vote for anyone. I don't care if you're unsure about yourself, I want you to do decisions based on your own opinion, not sheep others. Even the best players are wrong sometimes, and I don't want us to lose if you'll happen to sheep a townie that was wrong, or even worse, a scum dragging you by the ropes. The way you talk about "no-one cares about my opinion so I won't push for it anymore, but I have a gun and I'm not afraid to use it", isn't giving you any points in my book either. I want to hear YOUR opinions. Even if you aren't sure who is scum (which few are at this stage of the game), your opinions can still be valuable for others. So pick it up. And think before you act! Rank: 5 Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1. Rank: 3 The ranks are just strange. He uses a lot of words to point out tiny things he doesn't like about each person. Risen is the only person he really goes after hard...but he really doesn't describe anything scummy about him. All his accusations look to me like he is accusing Risen of bad play, not being scum. This is really the extent of his scum hunting, outside of tunneling Risen like a boss. I really don't get the sense he is going after the town win-condition. Let's look at the reasoning using his ranks. The highest numbers should lose stock first, continuing on down to the lower numbers. He has Risen first, and as I already explained, his accusations are pretty bad. Following Risen he has grush, a lurker. Following that he has me, because I am polite and I decided I would lynch talismania. Read those three paragraphs, his three top reads, and take note of how phony sounding the accusations are. Now let's go to the reason why he has been basically auto-towned...the NK. This is important. There are perfectly logical reasons for scum Cephiro to aim the NK at himself. Dedede read him as town, so Cephiro knew that as a townie looking Samus, there was a good chance that dedede would choose to protect him via bus. Even if he didn't, the NK only removes one stock, which would absolutely be worth the massive town cred it got him. This does not add or subtract to the case against him. The important thing here is that the NK aimed at Cephiro is a null point. There are logical, valid reasons for it be he town or scum. Without that NK stuff, there is just his filter, and the filter looks pretty bad imo. First off, I was certainly not shitting up the thread with the argument with Risen. I provided statistical facts and normal logic to show how his D1 accusations were false and flawed. As I've said several times, Risen's play was not pro-town at all in my opinion. Tell me how these are bad points:
Why are ranks strange? I gave you an exact order in how I have people pegged currently, as I want everyone to understand what I am thinking and why I'm thinking. If you find that somehow anti-town... should I keep everything to myself and come out with some tidbits every now and then, or just a huge post at once like iGrok did? Didn't seem like a much better idea considering how you wanted to kill him for it. About the NK, I didn't ask the scum to shoot me. If I am a threat to them, that means I've done something right. In a stock game like this, you can twist any night actions to look correct from any perspective you want. The thing is, you can't play based on what is the most twisted and sickest scum plan ever. Sure, it could be right, but how likely is that? I lynch scum based on the mistakes and contradictions they make, not on night-WIFOM. And finally, about "tunneling" Risen. Yes, it is true that pretty much since the start of the game I have had him pegged as scum. He has not at any point in the game given me a reason to change my mind. I always evaluate the situation again and again based on new information and actions. However, none of his actions as I've several times described were pro-town in my opinion. Am I scum for wanting to kill my biggest scumread? When I'm sure that someone is scum, I make sure they die. Giving them a chance to escape could cost you the game. So why on earth should I not try to get my biggest scumread killed? Yes, I was wrong about it. Can townies be wrong sometimes? Yes. Can I be wrong sometimes? Yes. If I'm wrong, does that make me scum? No. | ||
Cephiro
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grush57 This man has posted nothing of use for town. He has a collection of 20-30 oneliner posts, which are random filler and votes. Mafia is not a game of pointing fingers and calling random people scum. Mafia is neither a game of sheeping others. Mafia is an elite mindgame where everyone's thoughts matter, and only with co-operation can town take the win. grush57 has not co-operated with anyone. He has not provided analysis. He hasn't provided reasoning for his scumreads. He hasn't provided reasoning for his vigshot. (OMG, U Scum! Doesn't count.) Some people say that because he revealed he didn't get his first pick, thus revealing two Samuses, he has to be Town. Why would scum do that? Go and take a look at all the setup metagaming it caused. Me and Saturn both got several accusations of being scum, just because of this one revelation. I know I'm town, and Saturn could be either. Yet this caused a lot of confusion and derailed the thread from the actual scumhunting to setup metagaming. And what does grush do? Nothing. He makes a vigilante shot without giving any reasoning. Why would a townie ever do that? What is even more concerning to me, he has been accused of being scum several times this game, but he hasn't bothered responding a single one of them, neither do anything pro-town. I ask you, why is this man alive? He really needs to die today. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 07 2012 04:54 HomerunBat wrote: cephiro, who is grush's partner? Stay tuned for the next episode of SSB-64 Mafia... In all seriousness, I'll give you a full case once I've finished re-reading filters. I'm a bit unsure at the moment. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I started to think what if talis is scum. The problem is that if tali was scum, from my perspective it's a bus in every possible scenario. I know I'm not scum, so that leaves 4 possibilities: talismania + grush57: Extremely unlikely as I can't believe both mafia members would be the only lynch options two days in a row, + they've been voting against each other since the start. Also a bus. talismania + Saturn: A bus at this stage seems needlessly risky as talismania absorbed DK last night, so he is not carrying anyone yet. It doesn't make any sense as Saturn could easily push for grush to be killed, thus letting talismania get to pick a target for his DK ability next night, enabling Saturn to bus him the following day if necessary. I guess this is possible if Saturn was super cocky due to having 2.5 KP total, but I can't see this happening either. talismania + HRB: A bus situation again. Although HRB's role isn't known (except that it's not a Samus or DK.), this combination seems unlikely as well. HRB made a case on me and talis, I don't see why he would push for talis that hard instead of going for me, as I reckon at this stage he wouldn't even have to convince grush to join the bandwagon. talismania + kingdedede: Bus situation. A yoshi+kirby scumteam seems quite lacking if town has 2 DK, 2 samus + something. Hard to see a motivation for the night action, why would they want me to gain town-cred when talis was up for lynch D1? They could have shot dedede and bussed him forward to someone they considered a threat. I just can't see this happening either. And I know I'm town. talismania + anyone scumteam just doesn't make any fucking sense. | ||
Cephiro
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On July 07 2012 06:45 Mister Saturn wrote: Cephiro's activity levels have been quite bad, especially at deadline times, when town should be more active, and scum are more likely to excuse themselves away. This is fucking bullshit and you know it. I've been around every single deadline in this game, go ahead and check. On July 07 2012 06:45 Mister Saturn wrote: And no dont try to excuse it away as a connection without a flip. No, Cephiro makes a very direct promise "If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch." talismania's play has been scummy and poor. But has Cephiro followed through at all? No, he's completely ignored talismania . This is a broken promise - it's lying and scummy. - Hiro Nice way of twisting the words in your favour. Why should I push someone I am unsure of rather than someone I am sure to be scum? I'll give you that he looks worse than you or HRB right now, but none of talis scumteam combinations makes sense to me. Add in the fact that I considered Risen, and I still consider grush the scummiest person alive, why the hell should I push talis for lynch? This is all happening too easily, it's a scum bandwagon. It has to be either you or HRB + grush. | ||
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Cephiro
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If it's Saturn+HRB somehow, then gg, it's all up to dedede bus wifom. Saturn shot on talis and KP on grush would make it 2v2 unless dedede does a gosu bus again. | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 06 2012 06:59 iGrok wrote: Lynch Grush tonight. On July 06 2012 06:56 Risen wrote: If igrok is town, go with the plan I listed earlier. Lynch grush, if town you have to go all in on either a cephiro/dedede scum team or two of ms/tali/hrb scum team. If grush is scum, lynch ms then tali then hrb. Two dead townies, one simple message. How hard can it fucking be? I'm off to sleep now. Don't know if I'm even going to bother posting tomorrow. -_- | ||
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I really enjoyed the game, and I excuse for my lack of participation in the post-game talk, but I've been getting ready for my military service that starts tomorrow. :x | ||
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