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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
First of all, as it has already been revealed, I am indeed Samus. (First pick, was second in Draft. - So much for your meta iGrok! :p) I will be using my shot as the majority wants to, unless I feel you're about to do something totally retarded, or that scum manipulating the shot is likely (whether it's by gaining control of discussion or having a busdriver/roleblocker/medic). So as long as I'm alive, you can count + 1.5 KP for town from me. If at some point I feel shooting is a bad idea and there are others whom agree with me, I will refrain from shooting. (The last thing we want is to lose the game by killing all of town with our own KP.) I think roleclaims should be reduced to a minimum, as we don't want the scum to gain any additional information (Possible roleblocks, medics, vigs, etc.). The only exception being Mario, if we decide to go with the "Possible Mario's claim and try to gain the item" -plan. In that case I hope that whatever item they will be gaining, if they are not transparent of it's usage, they should get lynched. I would like to go for the item since I know that I am town, and if I decide to sit out as Town, it increases the possibility of scum gaining the item. I am willing to sit out with talismania if the majority wants to though. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
We could either go for a full split, forcing all the suspicious players into the same bunch, or go with a more even split (2 seemingly town, 2 slightly suspicious), to try and ensure some kp on the more suspicious players. If someone would do against the majority's wishes without a valid reasoning, they could be lynched or shot. The average KP we take from the stage event is 1.33, but it can range from 0 to 4. Basically, the less we split, the higher the chance of an extreme is. (By this I mean that we could end up taking either nothing at all, or a ton of KP.) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 02:26 iGrok wrote: Oh, ceph, you cheeky bastard. I think my idea of having players choose other's zones would be best. We can gai na lot of info based on who they pair/decide to sit out. I do agree that can gain some good information if I understood you correctly. So what you're suggesting is that we move down this list (Player list, or do you mean another randomly generated one?): 1) Igrok 2) Cephiro 3) Mister Saturn (HiroPro + strongandbig) 4) grush57 5) talismania 6) kingdedede (Artanis[Xp] + Acrofales) 7) HomerunBat (ShiaoPi + s0Lstice) 8) Risen And then taking turns everyone gets to decide whom goes where, and others should do as told or risk getting punished? Please clarify how you mean to go about it. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 00:28 Toadesstern wrote: ALSO A REMINDER WE NEED INFORMATION ON STAGE EVENTS AND ITEM PLACES BY THE END OF 22:30 GMT (+00:00). IF YOU DON'T SEND IN STAGE EVENT INFORMATION YOU WILL GET HIT BY A TORNADO NO MATTER WHAT. IF YOU DON'T SEND IN ITEM INFORMATION YOU WON'T GET A CHANCE TO GET AN ITEM BUT ALSO WON'T GET HIT IF SOMEONE ELSE IS IN THE SAME PLACE, SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO SEND THAT IN ^ reply to kingdedede So yes, I take the way Toad puts it that we can decide to not go for an item, but if you decide to "Skip" the stage event, you get punished. (And in this stage that means an automatic tornado hit, causing a -0.5 KP loss.) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 02:37 talismania wrote: yeah you can sit out the item part without getting damage, toad just said so (and it says so in the op). I don't particularly understand this pick for other people thing... I think I'm just going to stand in the middle if that's cool with everyone. Think of it as a complex voting. Whomever picks whatever does it for a reason (most likely, although there is a small possibility that someone would go totally random about it.). However, mafia is more likely to think their decision through. If they decide to go for "optimal" play, it is much more likely that they are able to be linked to each other. So it's very much about risk/reward balancing for mafia, as if they try to go for optimal mafia play, they are more likely to get caught, but if they try to play it safe, they also won't most likely gain as good results. And not only do we gain information whom whoever is deciding, but if there are persons that disagree / do not follow the plan, we will hear their thoughts on why they do not agree, or then just straight up punish them for it. I like iGrok's idea tbh. How I see it as a TL;DR version: More actions from players = More information to go by from. I'm fine with iGrok deciding everyone's position on the board today. (Better let me hug a tornado if we end up deciding this! ♥) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Well, at least if there's anyone that doesn't follow the plan, we'll have our target for the day. On July 03 2012 03:45 kingdedede wrote: There's not enough time for everybody to be king and planet zebes doesn't have that kind of stage, or do you suggest to have the randomly decided king tell everybody who to push? It could be, but life isn't always fair. We could always ask someone else to do the picks if we feel that it would give us more information than going by the list. As for Zebes, in my opinion it should be considered as extra lynch power. It's not as powerful (1 KP compared to normal lynch having 1.5 KP), but it's still a valuable tool. Most importantly, it has to be used, as anyone not voting takes 1 KP, so everyone will be forced to responsibility of their vote, and this is another way for us to gain more information. I am following King iGrok into the Valley Of Tornadoes. Are you with me? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I like that Risen is being critical to what iGrok is pushing, but for what reasons? Why is it better to spread ourselves than all be at the same spot? It all comes down to randomness, and if we do it "by list", then there is nothing to go by from. I'd say iGrok's decision of putting all players on the same stage event tells us much more than just going by list, which would tell us nothing. So Risen, is there an absolute reason why you do not want to stand on left like most (if not everyone else) of us? I'll give though that I do not entirely agree with iGrok's reasoning of reducing the action count, as it does possibly the same for scum also. For now though, I do not see cons that outweigh the pros. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 05:59 Risen wrote: Exactly WHAT does standing on the same platform tell us? It tells us NOTHING. 1) It gives us insight on iGrok's thoughts. (He made a very neutral/safe choice, punishing everyone or no-one, not grouping people yet, which he however IS doing in his item picks/sit-outs. He also gave a valid reasoning, it may not necessarily be the optimal choice, but I haven't seen anyone else give a better idea yet.) 2) The reactions of the players on iGrok's choices. (For example, you insist on not going left with everyone, which you haven't given a valid reason for. Or talismania willing to sit-out, even though there is no risk of a fight [Stock loss] if people follow the plan.) So tell me, have a better idea? For now all I am seeing is that you are saying you are not going to follow the plan. (Which you say is because this gives us no information, which is false.) And in your latest posts you were thinking of dividing by the list. (Which doesn't give us any information at all.) I can say it's not much, but it's better than nothing, and we need something to get the scumhunting started. If you're still going to go against the plan without either a) Giving a better idea or b) Giving proper reasoning, then you're certainly not looking good in my eyes. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:13 Risen wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:13 Cephiro wrote: 1) It gives us insight on iGrok's thoughts. (He made a very neutral/safe choice, punishing everyone or no-one, not grouping people yet, which he however IS doing in his item picks/sit-outs. He also gave a valid reasoning, it may not necessarily be the optimal choice, but I haven't seen anyone else give a better idea yet.) 2) The reactions of the players on iGrok's choices. (For example, you insist on not going left with everyone, which you haven't given a valid reason for. Or talismania willing to sit-out, even though there is no risk of a fight [Stock loss] if people follow the plan.) So tell me, have a better idea? For now all I am seeing is that you are saying you are not going to follow the plan. (Which you say is because this gives us no information, which is false.) And in your latest posts you were thinking of dividing by the list. (Which doesn't give us any information at all.) I can say it's not much, but it's better than nothing, and we need something to get the scumhunting started. If you're still going to go against the plan without either a) Giving a better idea or b) Giving proper reasoning, then you're certainly not looking good in my eyes. Found the other scum. Two total? Easy game. How about you answer the questions properly and start playing the game instead of toying around? Or is it because you have no answer? For all I see you are just casting shit on iGrok's idea, but you are providing absolutely nothing useful yourself. If you think I am scum for supporting his current stance more than yours, you're retarded. Start doing stuff that benefits the town instead of casting shit on the content others provide, when you provide nothing yourself. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:23 Risen wrote: How about you read my filter and find the answers since I've already posted them. You're incompetent and lazy, or scum. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say scum. What is this, I don't even.... I've looked through your filter several times, and all your reasoning is this: 1) In your opinion, everyone losing stock (33% chance), is worse off for town than mafia. You back this up because in your opinion when scum is found, the town can just blob everything at them and they die instantly. What makes you think we are able to kill scum just like SNAP? They have picked a role just like everyone else, and will use it to their advantage. Sure, we have lynches but it still takes time to kill them, and every mislynch would hurt us even more. Not to mention that they could have doublevoters and we wouldn't. Or how are you going to convince the rest of the town that someone is scum, if all you do is point fingers saying "I think that plan sucks, let's kill him, he must be scum." 2) In your opinion iGrok is suggesting a pro-mafia plan. On July 03 2012 04:26 Risen wrote: Want to minimize mafia chance of item while maximizing town chance so we're not double stacking? Then have us go down the list in numerical order and say that's left, bottom left, center, etc. Same for left, center, right on the position discussion. I'm going to be voting iGrok for lynch at this point. You criticize him for leaving two people out. You say it will increase the mafia chance of gaining an item. That's true if the persons whom sit-out are town. However, if even one of his sit-out picks is mafia, it decreases the chance of them gaining an item. How is going down the list in numerical order any better? Now we can ask iGrok for his reasoning and hold him responsible, but if we do everything by the list, it gives us no information at all. I'll end with this: Your criticism against iGrok's plan: On July 03 2012 05:59 Risen wrote: Exactly WHAT does standing on the same platform tell us? It tells us NOTHING. Your own plan: On July 03 2012 05:40 Risen wrote: I disagree. Scum gets no info from spreading ourselves out based on the list and leading town to do things doesn't seem pro-town to me at all. Have a look in the mirror, Mr. NoInfo | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18% Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19% The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong. Can you explain me why your plan is better? Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:54 Risen wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote: Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town? If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18% Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19% The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong. Can you explain me why your plan is better? Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio. End ratio isn't equal. Someone else posted on this. Stand where you want to stand people, don't be directed. No information comes from all of us standing on a single square. Damage outweighs benefits imo. Think that sums well. Assuming everyone stands left and gets hit by tornado (33% chance) Town stock before Tornado = 6 x 3 = 18 Mafia stock before Tornado = 2 x 3 = 6 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 18 : 6 -> 3 : 1 Town stock after Tornado = 6 x 2.5 = 15 Mafia stock after Tornado = 2 x 2.5 = 5 Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 15 : 5 -> 3 : 1 .... I still don't get what you are going at. What information do we get from "everyone stands where they want" then? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 06:57 Risen wrote: The risk taken by all of us standing on one square is higher than spreading ourselves out. False. Expected damage average is 1.33 KP in every situation. And you have no way of controlling whom it goes to. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:00 Risen wrote: And then when we go into night what happens Cephiro? We have a smaller buffer against night actions if we all get hit. The mafia has a smaller buffer against night actions also. Scum has 1 KP + Possible Role KP. Town has 0 KP + Possible Role KP. Given that town has 6 persons and mafia assumingly has 2, I think it evens out quite well. On top of that, remember there are roles that can mitigate / reflect damage, such as Donkey Kong, Fox, Ness, Jigglypuff, Yoshi + (Kirby). I just can't see why you think a smaller buffer is absolutely worse for town than scum. Scum has +1 KP during night, whereas Town has a triple amount of roles, + if Town manages to co-operate properly, the lynch KP during day which is 1.5 KP. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:15 iGrok wrote: shoot me if you want, it was a derp I think top left as the first zone and so I put myself there. You should probably be able to guess why i picked you, you're scum. On the bright side of this derp, scum's at 2 stock lol. I think it's fairly possible that you derped, since I don't see any other scum motive for doing that trading stock with a 1:2 ratio, but taking on top the fact it would out you, I sincerely don't think you would be that stupid. So I believe iGrok just derped on this one. Why are you so sure Saturn is scum though? If I understood right, you've had to choose whom you carry at the start of the game = Before anyone has even posted. So are you just being sarcastic or what...? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On July 03 2012 07:19 iGrok wrote: Start of the game. I made it later though Care to clarify the later part? | ||
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