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On June 29 2012 00:51 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 00:51 rastaban wrote:On June 29 2012 00:48 marvellosity wrote:On June 28 2012 23:01 rastaban wrote:On June 28 2012 22:54 Mattchew wrote:
Marv
To simplify your process I will give you a step by step of how you should approach everything.
We are in Lynch Scum or Lose. Mis-lynching town or the SK will result in a scum victory
The first and MOST IMPORTANT thing you need to do is come up with a final read on Risk.
The reason for this, is that he is pretty much the only player 100% guaranteed not to be the SK.
Personally I believe him to be town. I don't think there is any logical reason for scum to hold their RB when I believe the SK has been hunting them all game (Zeph then Xsksc were scummy targets that I doubt scum would shoot at and I believe SK shot at them to kill mafia). It would be extremely bold of them to hold their RB and increase the chances of one of them being hit by SK.
If you disagree, I feel that you must vote and lynch Risk because if you are correct, he will flip scum 100%. There is no one else you can say this for.
If you agree with my assessment that Risk is town, then you have 5 players left, 4 of which are not town. I think the first step you must take is trying to remove the remaining townie from the pool of 5. This way (and this is so weird to actually say out loud) you can start to play connect-the-scum, something that normally can demolish town. However in this scenario, it is actually the best way to try and lynch a scum team member over the SK or townie.
Any route you choose I will support, other than voting me for lynch. I also will help you think out your reads if you would like my opinions. Basically Marv, the game comes down to your reads, no one else's, if you read the situation as Risk being town then his reads also matter, but until that point, the game is on your shoulders.
This is a very levelheaded and well thought out post, which coincides on my read that you are not scum. I agree we shouldn't lynch you today. And if you really aren't scum then VE may have saved the game with his shenanigans last night. What do you feel about my post and its possible scum targets. I know we need marv on board to do anything but I would like your input. so you believe risk is scum? I don't think so, I think he really was Roleblocked last night. so there's 3 townies, me, you, risk, matt seeing the problem yet?
As I said earlier, I think Matt is the SK
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On June 29 2012 00:59 Shraft wrote:
@rastaban
Can you explain to me why you took a bunch of null tells on risk.nuke, said they furthered scum agenda and pushed them as if they were blatant scum tells? Or do you still insist on them being actual scum tells?
Until now I thought it was a good case. In light of recent events I don't logically think he can be scum. I pushed Mepach_Ziph (sorry for butchering your name) last game day 1 very slightly for the same reasons, but then he improved once I did it,so I let him go. Later we found out he was GF, and I kicked myself for not pushing him harder. So this game I decided I wouldn't let that happen again, so I tried to trust my read on him. Most likely it was just both of them being lurkers so after this game I will be reviewing my play to see where I went wrong.
To be truthful I would still like for him to be scum so I can say I told you so, but I think it is more likely I made a bad play than for him to be faking a RB last night given the current state of things.
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Shraft can you list out who you think the 3 scum are and who you think is SK?
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On June 29 2012 03:09 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 03:08 rastaban wrote:
Shraft can you list out who you think the 3 scum are and who you think is SK? don't do this, I don't want anyone now saying who they think SK is.
Well can you list just your scum reads then?
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On June 29 2012 03:32 marvellosity wrote:
rastaban: a tidbit for you to consider. Post your thoughts as you please.
When Snarfs voted for Mattchew yesterday, he was leaving the thread and it seemed like there was zero danger of Mattchew getting lynched.
Hmmm His case comes moments after I switch my vote to you. If he was scum bussing Matt b/c he felt he wouldn't actually be lynched at that point then there is a possibility of a Matt, Snarfs, X team. I was thinking he votted matt when I was pushing for matt as well, but I checked and it actually occurs after I switched my vote to you. Ok time to reread how that went down a few times and see what I can learn.
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On June 29 2012 04:24 marvellosity wrote:
ok. rastaban/risk/matt opinions too please!
thx
Working on it, reviewing his play in Pick Your Poison right now to see how it matches up.
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If I am right in my earlier assessment then he is scum by process of elimination. however your recent post has me thinking about the possibility of it having been a buss which makes me less sure
His play seems slightly different that in his previous game where he contributed more but he does seem to try to break up the conflict between you and VE which he said in previous games is what causes town to lose when their isn't an atmosphere of teamwork.
It is possible he isn't scum but it is a pretty long shot, perhaps if risk faked the block he could be scum but I don't think it is a high probability.
I lean scum but at this point I think Snarfs is a better choice.
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EBWOP: perhaps if risk faked the block he could be town
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And I mean I think Snarfs is a surer lynch than prplhz right now.
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On June 29 2012 04:48 marvellosity wrote:
hurray!
only risk/matt to go :o
Gratz on Ghost :D sorry you had to use it here.
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Good catch on the prplhz not being role blocker I had forgot we had two blocks night one and was thinking he had fake claimed (the reason I said he might be if risk was fake claiming)
That means we have a 50/50 chance between shraft and snarfs of getting role blocker. It also means one of them was the shooter that night as the role blocker can't shoot on nights he role blocks, don't know if that will help in narrowing it down though. Time to go back through their filters.
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On June 29 2012 05:24 marvellosity wrote:
one way or another my information pool is growing. I'm on to the 4th page of my Holy Document of All Things.
Our faith and hopes rest on your precious document. Treat it well.
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Well if prplhz can't be RB then it leaves us with Shraft and Snarfs. Hopefully you realize I am not scum but it looks like you may think that is the case, so if you are in doubt pick whichever of those you think is least likely to be scum and I will gladly assist you in lynching the other.
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Thanks matt, That reminds me I better ##unvote prplhz till we hear from Marv.
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##Vote Snarfs
I think this was a good choice, his role as the first on the matt lynch makes me think he is the better choice, At the time it seemed marv was a sure thing so they would have wanted someone off of him when he flipped vig.
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On June 29 2012 21:41 marvellosity wrote:
Assuming we lynch scum, overnight it will be 3-2-1.
Town lynches the roleblocker
3-2-1 will likely become 2-1-1. Town cannot possibly win.
Is the mafia's best ploy to kill a townie? Presumably any sane SK (rofl :/) chose one-shot bulletproof for situations just like these (BH chose it last game). So if mafia tries to shoot at SK then likely it ends up 3-1-1, worse for mafia than 2-1-1 (obviously)
Town doesn't lynch the roleblocker
3-2-1 becomes 2-2-1. An even worse situation for town numerically speaking, where the only hope is for town to lynch a mafia and then mafia and SK to shoot each other (extremely unlikely...)
Basically town cannot possibly win unless by some miracle mafia hits the SK tonight. Presuming this happens:
If SK gets roleblocked, it will be 3-2-1 tomorrow and we can potentially win by lynching scum.
If SK does not get roleblocked, it will be 3-1-1 tomorrow, where fate is entirely in town's hands.
In other words, town can only win if mafia does not kill town tomorrow. This being the case, our chances are greatly increased if we manage to hit the roleblocker.
Everyone please comment. Am I making correct assumptions here?
The one of course that it's based on is a 3-1 scum/SK split.
In Emergency it was 3/1 and town had cop, roleblocker, jailer, similar blue powers to here, so it seems reasonable.
Don't forget we can no lynch. in a 2-1-1 or scenario town's best chance is to go for a no lynch. It doesn't assure a victory but it ends up making the the SK and Mafia play WIFOM with a possibility of town taking the game.
There might be a possibility for a 3-2 tomorrow as well, If the SK chose investigation immune or if bulletproof can be suppressed (In my previous game this was the case but RB didn't block KP then so it might not) and mafia try and eliminate him tonight.
Does Roleblock suppress the SK's one shot bulletproof?
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Also 3/1 is prettu much a given. I looked over the C9++ link Probulous linked at the beginning of the game, now WBG could have modified things but according to that list and our current revealed roles we got a CCDVTTT
where TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) which matches with the general consensus right now.
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On June 29 2012 23:23 marvellosity wrote:
do you agree with me though our chances are increased by killing roleblocker? (2-1-1 instead of 2-2-1)?
A no lynch at 2-1-1 and lynching mafia at 2-2-1 going into night means both situation resolve to a 2-1-1 night phase. The difference is that in one SK has to hit mafia at night and in one we as a town have to lynch mafia during the day. The SK can't win if he hits town tonight so he will be aiming for mafia.
Now the other problem is that you are almost certainty going to die tonight unless Mafia tries to kill SK. So tomorrow town won't have a confirmed townie to spear head the vote. When todays lynch flips red I think it will confirm your theory so town will vote accordingly. I think you should list out after the lynch who the next target should be to be sure whichever case it is the shot/lynch goes accordingly.
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Shraft fights like a dairy farmer!
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On June 30 2012 03:16 Mattchew wrote:
I am an idiot woops
Its been almost 2 years since I played any mafia so an easy mistake to make.
You are currently helping town. I just need to make sure you shoot scum tonight and not me. Please follow Marv's recommendation on who to shoot, You can't win if you hit a townie so it is important that a mis-shot doesn't occur. Remember I helped in finding out you weren't scum why would I do that when you seemed an easy lynch, especially with VE pushing you just before he died, unless I was town?
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EPT
