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Newbie Mini Mafia XVIII - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 01 2012 07:46 GMT
#539
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 01 2012 09:18 JingleHell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2012 09:13 Esspen wrote:
I'm confused, why would mafia kill somebody we suspected of being mafia? Wtf?


Well, answering that requires that we understand what the scum were thinking. We don't, so all we can do is drive ourselves into a state of paranoia trying to metagame the people who know more than us.

The best thing we can do is try to find the case where Milton being dead is beneficial to the scum. Look at his discussions, look at his thought process, look at other people's thought processes about him. Time to dive into the filters and start trying to piece things together, IMO.


+ Show Spoiler +
On July 01 2012 09:30 JingleHell wrote:
Milton calls Keirathi scummy. Which was something Vivax also thought before the OMGUS against me exploded into a rather unfortunate shitstorm. + Show Spoiler +

On June 30 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Keirathi, the question doesn't come down to "what does town lose if player X is telling the truth." It comes down to who you think is scum. The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you does not reflect well on your alignment. Here is why I'm voting Vivax over JingleHell: Vivax's play has been incredibly scummy, JingleHell's has not. It's that simple.


On June 30 2012 08:02 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP: "The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you don't vote for him does not reflect well on your alignment."



Keirathi, of course, was right in the thick of a lot of the hot points of that mess, and now he's trying to discuss policy when we're in a world of trouble numerically.

Milton's other suspicion mentioned at one point...
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2012 10:20 Miltonkram wrote:

What do you think of dNa's reasoning for his Esspen vote? Pretty scummy right?


Bear in mind, even though yesterday went terribly, Milton was one of the few people really trying to consider the cases, and look at alternatives even after it started exploding.

This isn't even a read, this is ONLY Milton's last couple of times saying someone looked scummy, which gives us a place to start looking. After the debacle, I'm going to be as methodical as possible to avoid a town loss because of another OMGUS shouting match.

These are only highlights, please read filters and help with this, the last thing we want is for scum to poke and prod us into a horrid bandwagon.


JingleHell, I feel like your second post is doing exactly what you cautioned against in your first post: metagaming the people who know more than us. Besides, I don't think Milton's point against keirathi holds any weight anymore, considering how Vivax flipped.

On July 01 2012 10:22 Keirathi wrote:
While I agree that we have to find some credible evidence to decide on who to lynch eventually, it's pretty counter-productive to discuss it today if we do decide to no-lynch. If we have even the slightest evidence against someone, and lay it out, then decide to no-lynch and they are in fact town, then there is virtually 0% chance that the mafia night-kills that person, which just leads to more suspicion towards them the next day, giving mafia a stronger case to get them lynched and win the game. No-lynching gives us one less person to have to try to build a case against.

Like I said, its not that I don't agree with you, its just that no-lynching is our best solution, and until it happens, any information we disclose can give mafia ammunition to use during the next day.


This might be true if it wasn't for one factor: Esspen. There is already evidence against him (and 2 votes currently against him from NrGmonk and dNa). We have to come to a consensus regarding him as soon as possible. He has been suspected the entire game so far and with good reason. If we decide on a no lynch, people will still be arguing about him the next day and mafia knows it. As you said, they won't shoot him; he's too valuable an asset for them if he's town (granted at this point even if he is mafia, he could still be considered an asset, just look at how many cases have been made against him or revolve around him, and he is STILL alive with no mafia lynched). If you want to no lynch, this point, combined with JieXian's points, must be considered.

I also feel we are wasting our nights because we are too afraid of posting some revolutionary new idea or case that will get us shot. If it is posted and gains enough momentum during the night with enough people agreeing, I don't see why mafia would choose to shoot that person over any other player who agreed. This no lynch is something that we could definitely have discussed in the night. Keirathi, you could've posted your no lynch idea earlier in the night for others to discuss. Had we reached a consensus before the day started, I see no reason for mafia to target you over any other player. Even if we did not reach a consensus during the night, your idea and posts during the night would still have been there for us to reflect on while discussing a no lynch.

Anyway, I am opposed to a no lynch for the above mentioned reasons for now, and am very likely to vote for Esspen.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 01 2012 07:49 GMT
#540
Barring some strong evidence against another player of course.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 01 2012 13:49 GMT
#545
Esspen, seriously? That's how you're going to post? Did you even read what has been posted, and if so, are you asking us to lynch you?
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 05:41 GMT
#563
On July 02 2012 12:40 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2012 04:58 NrGmonk wrote:
Keirathi, I think now the evidence against Esspen is indisputable and "concrete", with quotes like:



No. That is exactly the opposite of concrete.

Does he have the most compelling case against him? Certainly. Does that make it a concrete case? Definitely not.

Think about our judicial system. Everything you quoted is circumstantial evidence. Its probably enough to convince a jury of our peers of the defendants guilt, but it is very much not guaranteed.

Think about it like this: if you assume that he is mafia, then those quotes can easily feel like indicators of that. But what if you assume he is town?




Now, I agree that he probably still has the strongest individual case against him. But it is NOT concrete. But, our only hope for concrete evidence at this point are credible blue role claims, and the slim chance that they actually have useful information. And claiming them during the day today would just be suicide, hence my whole no-lynch policy.


What exactly does a mass blue role claim achieve? Nothing.
Medic: Only knows as much as the rest of town.
Veteran: Same as above, at this stage; there has been a night kill each night so far.
Jailkeeper: Also only knows as much as the rest of town at this stage.
Vigilante: Dead

The ONLY role that would provide us with more information is the detective, and we don't even know if we have one. So please clarify exactly what concrete information would be gained from a mass role claim? You are taking the risk that we actually have a detective, which is not "concrete". You would need EVERYONE to actually trust the role claims if we go ahead with your no lynch in order to get some "confirmed" town.

Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
If we have even the slightest evidence against someone, and lay it out, then decide to no-lynch and they are in fact town, then there is virtually 0% chance that the mafia night-kills that person, which just leads to more suspicion towards them the next day, giving mafia a stronger case to get them lynched and win the game.


To which I replied:

+ Show Spoiler +
This might be true if it wasn't for one factor: Esspen. There is already evidence against him (and 2 votes currently against him from NrGmonk and dNa). We have to come to a consensus regarding him as soon as possible. He has been suspected the entire game so far and with good reason. If we decide on a no lynch, people will still be arguing about him the next day and mafia knows it. As you said, they won't shoot him; he's too valuable an asset for them if he's town (granted at this point even if he is mafia, he could still be considered an asset, just look at how many cases have been made against him or revolve around him, and he is STILL alive with no mafia lynched). If you want to no lynch, this point, combined with JieXian's points, must be considered.


You didn't even address that post, so how can you hope to convince others if you don't even defend the flaws in your idea?

+ Show Spoiler +
It seems that everyone is against the no-lynch then role-claim idea. I really don't understand, but whatever. I'm not going to keep defending the idea over and over and over again.


You can't just propose an idea and expect us all to go along with it if you don't even address the points made against it. Or maybe you just didn't read my post, I don't know.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 05:43 GMT
#564
To add on, what makes a medic or veteran claim believable? There has been a kill every night. A jailkeeper claim would also not be 100% believable for the same reasons.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 05:55 GMT
#567
+ Show Spoiler +
The repeat votes on the mislynches go to BioSC, rofl/JingleHell, and Esspen.
Turns out all of them were in Vivax's list, but I'm not really sure how much stock we can put into that. It does seem fishy that rofl/Jingle had a large number of votes both days, and got out of it with an Esspen vote change. However, Jingle has his vote on Esspen right now. Has the mafia decided to give up one of their own already? Or is it possible that Esspen is just playing badly and mafia sees a chance to railroad him?


IMO Esspen is still the best target out of those 3. I was actually getting suspicious of BioSC, who hasn't said much at all recently, but then I realised yesterday that it was his birthday (he had a birthday icon while I looked through his filter), so I'm not sure if this is really lurking with a mafia agenda or not. I'm not sure about JingleHell, but Esspen's last minute vote switches are either an attempt to save a mafia JingleHell from a lynch, or a continuous attempt at setting up suspicions. If he is a poor town player who just doesn't care (if he is a town player I was ok with the poor posting since it's a newbie game, but that last post was just in poor form), then I'm sorry, but he will still be causing problems for the next day if we leave him alive.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 06:05 GMT
#569
But again, you are still gambling on all of us agreeing on the lynch for the next day Keirathi. Also, a jailkeeper can't roleblock a mafia kill role, they can only keep a player safe FROM a night kill if I understand correctly. To be honest, I am actually still open to a no lynch, it's just that I think Esspen really would cause us problems if left alive. So much discussion has been about whether or not he is brazen mafia or misguided (and now lazy) town. My vote currently boils down to esspen vs no lynch.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 06:30 GMT
#572
But how exactly do you suppose people will actually make role claims believable?
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 06:36 GMT
#574
Well what do you think of the no lynch right now JieXian?
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 06:50 GMT
#576
It says that Mafia KP is always one. I don't think jailing one mafia will result in a blocking of their night shot.

can we get a clarification of the jailkeeper role? If a member of the mafia is jailed, does the mafia team's night shot still go through?

BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 15:50 GMT
#582
Well, we've just wasted half a day discussing the no lynch policy rather than hunting mafia. I suspect there is 1 or more mafia currently on the esspen wagon. We've had Keirathi, JingleHell, JieXian and myself discussing the no lynch for awhile now, while dNa and NrGmonk, who posted after the discussion started, haven't said a word about it and threw their votes on esspen. I'm starting to suspect that esspen really isn't mafia, but I don't think I can push a solid case on either of those 2 in this MYLO situation with what I currently have. Maybe they'll post later, but I am actually going to vote for the no lynch for now.

##Vote no lynch
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 15:55 GMT
#583
And with that, I'm off to bed. I'll be around maybe 30 minutes to an hour before the lynch on my phone to change my vote if events develop further.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:43 GMT
#617
But is there any sense in keirathi trying so hard to push this idea if he were mafia? Everyone wanted esspen dead. It would be much easier for mafia to just bus him at this point. He has pushed this idea so hard that it would indeed put him in bad light if esspen flips mafia. There is no reason for him to take such a big risk when mafia still have w pretty good chance of winning considrting we have no other reads. I believe he is townie and I know I a, leading me to the conclusion that mafia are bandwagonning esspen.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:46 GMT
#618
So is no one else here or us everyone just waiting...
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:50 GMT
#619
It's ten minutes to deadline and esspen hasn't even voted. This is looking more and more likely like he's a town player who has given up.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:53 GMT
#621
I am willing to take the chance that I look suspicious if I don't vote him, but I don't care. I believe I am right. I would try to push a DNA lynch if it weren't so late.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:56 GMT
#623
And I understand that esspen has a decent case against him so its not really.bandwagonning, which is what makes this situation and this whole game hard. I am not voting for esspen purely because I believe keirathi is town, and I know I am, which jeans mafia wants a town lynch.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:57 GMT
#624
Wants an esspen lynch sorry
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 02 2012 23:58 GMT
#625
If you're talking about focussing on other suspicious people then yes, DNA.
BassInSpace
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia165 Posts
July 03 2012 00:02 GMT
#630
Which is why I said the game has been so difficult because if him, but here we go...
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