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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Given furerkip's statement about how long VE's claim was, I decided to take a look at his previous claim in MTG Mafia to compare the length. On May 27 2012 08:04 VisceraEyes wrote: Cool. I'll be brief. I want you to lynch me if you PROMISE TO LYNCH BUGS NEXT. Everyone seems to think either Bugs or I am scum or that we both are. As such, if you guys have a handle on this outside the two of us, I prefer you just get us out of the way first so whoever is left is confirmed whatever. Please guys, no one is going to listen to anything I say at this point and I'm just a distraction. Remove it. Also I'm the Doctor, so if you don't lynch one of me or Bugs, I'm dead tonight anyway. Gg guys, sorry I allowed Bugs to mindfuck me so hard this game.  I had a null read on VE's claim at first because of the fact that both Millers and veteran mafia players should claim miller in a game where the miller is self aware, this does slightly push the case in favor of a mafia VE, but it's still a weak case. How VE will handle himself the rest of the game is going to be a lot more important. My concern however is that he shits up the thread regardless like he did in MTG Mafia where he tunneled WBG hard as town, and did the same as Toad as mafia, meaning that him tunneling someone isn't indicative of alignment. To be frank, I'm not sure how to read him. Why would Miller claiming be good for the person claiming? VE as a veteran is likely to get checked by a DT. By claiming early he prevents getting checked by a DT. We already know he would check red now regardless of whether he's lying or not, so a DT check is now useless. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 05 2012 07:58 furerkip wrote: If we lynch retarded towns who are scumslipping left and right but aren't even scum, we avoid situations on 3 way lynches where they just tunnel ANYONE or we accidentally lynch them because there is just so much evidence to kill them in a 3way lynch. Believe me, if there are retarded town, they won't die at night; mafia will keep them alive so they can have more of a chance in a lynch or lose situation because retarded towns are stupid. That's just proper game sense. If we use lynches to kill retarded town, then we avoid situations like that in the end game. No, we should always lynch the strongest scum suspects because anything else gives scum the possibility of a free ride just riding on someone who they can prove to be retarded. By just lynching people we think are scum they have to put their hand in the fire to try and prove someone else is scum. Scum doesn't have to lie to get a retarded townie lynched; they just point out he's acting retarded. A town atmosphere where lynching bad players is acceptable is horrible for town for that very reason. "Also I think it makes sense that he's saying not to check him, if he's making this claim it's obviously because he'll flip red, whether it's because he's miller or scum, he has no reason to say it if he wouldn't so any check would be totally wasted on him." The real problem that this is is that he has claimed Miller and he is using correct reasoning from a STUPID premise (he is miller). In fact, if he turns Miller upon a lynch, then wouldn't that help us? Cop's reports can be trusted to a tee. If he flips Mafia, we just got brang down 1 mafia. We don't know how many millers there are. We don't know if Mafia has a framer or not. We don't know if there's a godfather or not. In NO way is VE flipping miller on a lynch good for town. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 05 2012 08:13 furerkip wrote: We should be okay with our lynches if the townie in question was scumslipping like no other. It's not okay to just randomly lynch townies with an ML, only townies who are scumslipping. If we identify those that are scumslipping and lynch them, we'll get the mafia, even if it means casualties on our side because mafia HAS to scumslip at some point, whether it be at the very end of the game or at the beginning. That's not true at all in my experience. In my newbie mini mafia game here, two people made 'scumslips', myself and mementoss. Both were town. In TL Mafia LI, gonzaw made a 'scumslip', he was town. If anything from the games I've played town seems to be the ones making scumslips more often than scum, because they're more careful as they're hiding something. Lynch candidates are those who act anti-town by derailing the thread into pointless bickering, have obvious logical errors in their analysis, people that tunnel hard on one player without giving their opinion on current cases, and lurkers. The latter is my least favorite lynch category, but from the last game I hosted all mafia were basically lurkers, so a no lurker acceptance has to be imposed. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 05 2012 08:34 furerkip wrote: That doesn't make sense, they correlate exactly. Scumslips = scum play and scumminess because scumslips are evidence for scumminess and scum play. Very alien experience from where I usually play, this game I mean. I just showed you examples of where 'scumslips' were done by townies. Perhaps you have a different experience where you play, but I'm going off by my own experience here and that has been that it's overwhelmingly been town that have made scumslips, so my opinion of them is very low. In your experience, if the mafia are lurkers, then obviously they won't scum slip... they aren't even active -___-. Also, that is entirely circumstantial and baseless evidence for why we shouldn't lynch based off scumslips. "See, people here were town, but they scum slipped!" My point is that of all the scumslips I've seen, there have perhaps been one or two made by mafia, and the rest by town. Therefore I have seen empirical evidence that suggests scumslips are bogus. Unless you have a good argument for this not to be the case, I'm going to give no weight to said scumslips. Okay, I have a question for all of you: Under what evidence should we lynch people, if not for scumslips? Illogical, contradictory play, like I said in the post you just quoted. People that continuously tunnel one player without giving their opinion on others, people that exhibit an intentional disregard of logic to make one player look scummy, and people that do not contribute to make said players contribute so we have something to go off on. On June 05 2012 11:15 Hyaach wrote: I would let VE live for a day unless something really scummy comes out from his play. it takes huge balls on claim this early, be it fake/real and its not a fool proof plan imo mafia or town. Besides, from his claim, i would put all his analysis on a magnifying glass to be dismembered and examined piece by piece. Very strange comment, but this feels a lot like newbie town and not so much like mafia to me. I don't think this is something a newbie mafia would say because mafia wants to fit into town and this is a statement that looks somewhat hostile to town, something I don't expect a newbie mafia to do. On June 05 2012 12:58 VisceraEyes wrote: + Show Spoiler + I'm trying to decide if kips motivation is coming from a scum standpoint. On the one hand the suggestion that getting rid of "retarded townies" is somehow beneficial to town is blatantly anti-town and at worst indicative of furerkip pushing a mafia agenda. However, newer players get it in their mind somehow that the actions of townies can damage town somehow worse than the very real consequence of their death, which is shortening the game. Town's aim needs to be lengthening the game, not shortening it. That's why we aim for scum every single lynch, because every scum lynch increases the number of days the game lasts. What gets me the most about furerkip is the fact that he is operating under the assumption that we're clear to "kill a retarded townie" under the assumption that we have "1 Mislynch we can work with". It's in this post... On June 05 2012 07:37 furerkip wrote: On another note as to why I think VisceraEyes should be lynched, is because if there are 4 mafia, and 12 players, then we have 1 Mislynch we can work with, which is fine to use on retarded townies. That's just my belief when I play though. Anyone want to add anything? ...I don't understand the motivation behind this post. Like, as a townie, I'm not thinking in terms of how many townies we can kill before it's game over. I'm thinking in terms of killing scum. I aim for killing scum with the lynch, and so the number of townies "we can safely kill before LYLO" isn't even a concern to me because that number increases every lynch by my expectation, not decreases. However, all of that being said, I can see him being a newer town not really knowing what's best for town, yet acting like he does to try and establish his innocence, which IS a mark in his favor where I'm concerned. Also it doesn't make sense for scum to be so brashly antagonistic so early in the game, though I am NOT ruling it out. Ultimately, I'd be interested to see what furerkip has to say about people other than me before coming to a conclusion about where I think he's coming from. Obviously my view is skewed of him right now because his only act in the game has been attacking me. What does everyone else think about furerkip? His stance on my claim is a pretty good one to discuss, what are your thoughts on his interpretation of my claim? I agree with the idea that he's probably newbie town. I don't feel like what he's posted is indicative of a scum agenda and it feels more like a townie going off on what he thinks is mafia. He's also agreed to let it go for now and not tunnel which I believe is a pro town thing to do. On June 05 2012 15:20 VisceraEyes wrote: Also I'm going to suggest we policy-lynch Katina if she doesn't prove her worth to town by providing us with some sort of content to be held accountable for if we are unable to find a suitable scummy candidate. Her meta shows that she's going to lurk regardless of her alignment, so I'd really rather just lynch her now before she becomes dangerous late-game (ya I know ur dangerous late-game suck it) if she's scum. Many of you have played with her before and know how frustrating not being able to determine her alignment can be. I submit Katina as our fall-back lynch unless she's able to satisfactorily contribute to today's discussion. @Katina Don't look at it as me trying to kill you. Look at it as me trying to get you to post. But keep in mind that I will try and kill you if you don't. ^^ She'll get the same treatment from me as other lurkers do; Post or risk getting lynched. I expect her posting quality to be of a higher standard than a lot of the other lurkers though. On June 05 2012 22:31 ghost_403 wrote: I buy VE's claim. His play doesn't make that much sense from a scum perspective. By claiming miller so early, you put yourself under a lot of scrutiny, and for what? So that the eventual DT check, which might not even be here (can someone point me to the role counts?) is void? Too much pressure for too little reward at this stage in the game. Of course, I've misread VE in something like 110% of the games I've played with him. Furerkips posting has been remarkably anti-town up to this point. I still haven't decided what to make of that quite yet. Shraft points out that this could just be him acclimating to TLMafia environment, so I'll give him a bit more time before I start pushing for his lynch. I appreciate VE pressuring Katina to chime in, but I think we all know that she will contribute on her own schedule. I'm not going to lynch her for that. I'm want to hear her thoughts on Furerkip. I disagree, there's a lot of reason for VE to claim Miller if he's mafia, and he isn't a godfather + there isn't a framer in play. He's very likely to get checked in the duration of this game, and this way he assures that he won't be checked. There is plenty of reason for a scum VE to claim this and therefore I don't believe this claim to be indicative of any alignment. Though I agree that Furer has been somewhat anti-town, is there anything about his behaviour that you'd attribute more to being scum rather than newbie town? If so, can you point it out? To everyone that hasn't posted yet: I'd like your opinions on VE and Furer. Especially from Katina. I'd also like to hear more about Furer from Blazinghand. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 05 2012 23:11 ghost_403 wrote: @artanis: That's just not true; VE always dies in the first 72 hours of the game. No way he'll get checked. As far as Furer, there was a post or two of his that looked scummy rather than newbie town. I'll go back and find them in a bit. I don't like your reasons for buying VE's claim. I don't see how you expecting him to live 72 hours at most effects VE claims, especially when you check his history. In fact, if he never expects to live more than 72 hours he probably wouldn't sign up to the game to begin with, but he did so I'm assuming he wants to win the game regardless of alignment, and this is a good move both as town and mafia for reasons I've stated before. You've also promised reasons why Furer is scum and haven't given them yet despite there barely being any posts in the game so far. Can't imagine that'd take very long, so until then: ##FoS: ghost_403 To Pandain: Expecting VE not to bring attention to himself regardless of his role is like expecting Kenpachi to make a post consisting of more than 2 lines. It's not going to happen, that's the kind of game he plays. I like your reasoning on Furer though and agree with it. I find it unlikely he is mafia for the time being. I agree that MrZentor has been wishy washy. I haven't played any previous games with him though so I don't know where to put him at. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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##Vote: Navillus | ||
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@VE I'm still not statisfied with Ghost, but I found Navillus a better target since I felt his post disconnect was bigger than that of Ghost. Whereas Ghost could've just been lazy/sarcastic, Navillus' post attacked one person, yet voted on another, which is classic scum in my textbook, since it's something he could fall back on at any time. Though these two definitely aren't cleared, I feel Pandain is the biggest scum suspect out of the three for the reasons mentioned above, and would be most happy with his head today. ##Unvote ##Vote: Pandain | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 07 2012 06:51 Pandain wrote: No you weren't. I was the one who stopped you guys from being suspicious of Kips when he was obviously town. I tried to direct the discussion, and when I needed to I claimed. And don't talk about the mason discussion derailing town, that's a retarded argument. Scum don't actively derail town discussion. In fact, they don't often at all. Instead they just let bad discussion go onwards. They don't put themselves in the spotlight. That's an incredibly important point for you guys to realize. Lynching me because I "derailed town" is both subjective, false, and weak as an argument. Wait, you needed to claim? What made you need to claim exactly? And no, scum don't want lynch discussion even if people are being wrongly accused because discussion generates information. Scum does not want town to have information. It is in scum's best interest to not talk about lynches at all times because it means there will be less reads available. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 07 2012 07:16 Katina wrote: Mr. VisceraEyes Let's take a look at one of his first posts. Here he opens with claiming that he is a Miller. He makes this big post about how he is all for the town and don't bother with a DT check because he will come back red. He says to keep a close eye on him and if it looks as if he is pushing a Mafia agenda then to lynch him. He uses capitals to emphasize his points and what NOT <--- to do. He comes out of nowhere with this post because he knows that people love to kill him and/or check him night 1. This is an attempt to divert suspicion from him and to ignore any evidence suggesting otherwise because he made it known early on. So when someone brings up suspicion he can just say "No. I told you early on I was a miller blah blah blah" I don't see how you make this out as his intention. I'm also confused as to what you see in his capitalization; it seems very minor and the case seems to be made out of thin threads. He never said he expects people to say he's clean. Both the town and the scum explanation check out, making it a null read and I don't see the scum in it. He once again emphasizes that people should not take his posts for granted as town, and he should be scrutinized. I'm very confused as to what you're getting at here. Here we see that VE can get away with just about anything because people just brush it off as typical VE play. I refuse to just brush all the derpness that comes out of VE's mouth as just typical VE play. Wut. He made a joke. This was his post that he made in defense of his voting on three different people. As you can see it's not much.... Again he uses the "My vote is a tool" excuse. He is really playing up his "I'm VE I vote on the whole town in a day and people will just nod and smile" I'm not buying it. But I HAVE seen him use his vote as a tool in previous games. In MTG mafia he kept changing targets too depending on who he thought he could lynch and he was townie in that game. Changing votes is a horrible reason to think someone is mafia and this case just makes me suspect you. This is also interesting Note how he is sold on BH and ready to lynch. Then what does silly VE do? He posts this later on. I thought he was sold? You don't think BH's massively more helpful posts than before that had anything to do with it? This post followed after. He makes a silly post that he is ready to lynch Pandian. Okay, well he was playing oddly I will give him that then he proceeds to make this case: Still fine with this. He makes this case on Furerkip and just briefly mentions Pandian at the end. I thought he was ready to lynch Pandian. Why make a post against another player instead of making your case on Pandian to ensure his lynch? Now this is the one good point you make in the entire case that I feel is scummy of VE. If Pandain is your main lynch target at that point, your post should be about Pandain, not furerkip. I don't like it and although the excuse of Emotional VE could be used (see MTG mafia for how VE can flip off). I don't think that's the case here at all just by getting accused from a newbie mafia. So VE, why did you make a massive case on furer then vote on Pandain? What? Don't most people make their cases then cast their votes instead of waiting for later? I'm not sure why VE would need to wait until later to make his case. It really makes no sense. VE has been all over the place day 1. He goes after several people. He votes on one person then goes and makes accusations and cases against someone else. His play is incredibly inconsistent. He is using his "Typical Play" card to do whatever he wants. He is doing nothing but casting doubt around the town. His focus is on throwing around accusations to try and appear like he's scumhunting. He appears to be pushing a Mafia agenda. VE made his miller claim early on so no one will suspect him because he "warned" us. His play has been completely ridiculous. He shouldn't be allowed to live through the night let alone another day. VisceraEyes is Mafia. Don't let his excuses that he's VE fool you into overlooking his scummyness. He is not helping the town at all. This needs to stop. VE is over emphasizing his Millerness. It reminds me of Bill Murray in jubjub where he got checked before the mafia converted him, and he just kept emphasizing that he was innocent cause he got checked. I feel like you're tunneling VE just over his first post here and it makes you see everything he posted in a scum light, whereas I can see a townie reasoning for every post other than that where he accused Pandain after making a long post on furer. That however is far from enough to chalk someone up as red for me. As for you Katina, I have you on a thin shade of red after this weak case, though I can see it being a case of tunneling. Also we should kill blazinghand. After my recent F5, let's not unless the death count is weird on N2. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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@Katina Going through loops to paint someone as scum who isn't exhibiting scum traits is scummy, Katina. But you also missed something: VE voted along with me on Ghost very rapidly after my case. A quick bandwagon, if you will. I'd imagine that would fit into your case and I'm curious how come you didn't notice it or emitted it out of your case. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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So who DO I want to see hang? I'd like to take a closer look at Zelblade. Pandain pointed at him too and I agree with the assertion that he's been too lurky, even if he has been busy. His posts have left a bad impression on me, such as how he basically played a question game and let everyone else do the work for him in the start before making a statement, therefore having more information and being able to make a more 'safe' post. Also goes after Hyaach, pandain, and generally seems to follow the flow, though this is supposedly his natural town play, that's not something I'm accepting this easily and I want to see him step up his posting as he said he will. I also find Katina mildly suspicious for reasons stated above in my earlier case. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Gonna have to think about what this means, but will do so later. Gotta go to bed now and get up early for tomorrow, Dutch Championships of gaming. No clue when I'll be able to jump in and post, it's a two day event but I don't think I'll get past day one. See y'all tomorrow. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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##Vote: Blazinghand | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: Hyaach | ||
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On June 09 2012 21:39 Shraft wrote: It is not that easy. If you assume that there is only a vig and a Mafia RB, you would still have to explain why Hyaach would lie about getting getting about 5-6 hours after BH had already claimed his roleblock. It makes no sense to lie about that as scum. It was looking like either one of them was going to get lynched. Claiming a power role if you know mafia has one isn't a bad idea, especially if it means you either get the other guy mislynched first or expose a town power role that was forced to counterclaim. It seems like a decent strategy from the position he was in. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 10 2012 06:01 Shraft wrote: If you read more carefully, you'll notice that I am talking about his RB claim, not his JK claim. Ah, my bad. Guess I have an hour to think about that and read back a bit. | ||
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2) I don't think there's an SK in this game, especially given there were no night kills. He didn't have that much pressure on him when he claimed he was RBed at all, in fact it looked like furer was going to take up the heat. I can see how he would feel pressured by thinking a Roleblocker might claim to have blocked him, but then why claim JK? It doesn't make sense from a game setup perspective as it's a very unlikely role to be present given the other roles that'd have to be present too. Blazinghand isn't particularly afraid of making risky plays. The question is not if Town would lynch him for it, but if Blazinghand thinks he could get away with it if he was scum. Given he could make this play as both town and scum, I don't think you're giving him enough credit here. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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@Snarfs mod said we need 7. | ||
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/qEUFg.png) | ||
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Because Robben and Van Persie are amazing choke artists when it comes to the national team. They should just put Huntelaar and Kuijt in the starting 11 instead | ||
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I'm going to reread Katina's filter now. Also going to reread why I was so convinced one of BH and Hyaach was scum and what would be neccesary to accomodate both being town. If it's just another Town RBer, it might not be as far fetched as I originally thought. I'd rather not have the lynch locked up immediately without thought as that way we'd basically waste a day. | ||
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Also, interesting flip. I don't think Mafia wanted to kill him. Going to have to look back and see who tried to make VE look bad after his claim. Furer comes to mind but I'll have to take a look if there are others, though not tonight. | ||
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I hate voting based on setup speculation given our 'success' with it so far. If you're speaking the truth, I urge the RBer to come forward. I've had a change of heart regarding not revealing my blue read as I feel there's a strong possibility he's red. I present to you: Snarfs. On June 05 2012 15:54 Snarfs wrote: @VE, In one sentence you claim that: Yet you follow it up with this: Care to explain? Is Katina really that unhelpful as town? It was pretty clear to me that this was pressure on lurkers to make them post more rather than actually trying to get her lynched. For the rest he also posted a bunch of questions yet didn't really chime in much until figuring out where people stood. Joined the BH bandwagon until BH started posting seriously, and suddenly went full on against Hyaach, whose case he had against him was very weak. On June 07 2012 11:32 Snarfs wrote: I've reread the thread and I still believe that Hyaach is the best lynch tomorrow. Look at what he's done: a) He hasn't contributed to any scumhunting. He hasn't asked questions and he hasn't used his vote to pressure people. b) His vote on Pandain seemed very forced, as Navillus and I have both mentioned. c) He blames his lack of content on the time zone difference. There were a ton of things he could have talked about when he was online. Not being online at the same time as others is not an excuse for not commenting on things that have happened in the game. a) That's not a mafia trait, that's a lazy player trait. b) A townie being pressured also does strange things. His vote looked a bit sheepish but not that strange. c) He never blamed his lack of content on the time zone difference. He he looked sheepish with his vote on Pandain because he woke up when the case already took off, which is a legitimate argument. On June 08 2012 15:22 Snarfs wrote: So just gave the thread a reread/skim through certain parts. Sticking with my plan of not wasting an entire day cycle, assuming furer doesn't even come back, I'd like to hear some opinions on ghost_403. Then fails to name any examples of why Ghost is scummy or anything with his own opinion, despite claiming he just read the thread again. How come you didn't provide any reasoning here yourself? His defense on BH is absolutely damning with only ONE clause out. That being that he's the town RBer. On June 11 2012 06:15 Snarfs wrote: First thing, I agree that we need to resolve the blazinghand situation and the furerkip/Palmar situation. Here is how I see it (I've already stated this multiple times): If blazing is the SK, then claiming vig is really dumb because he's gonna be shot by mafia later in the game. Almost guaranteed. If blazing is scum, again I think it's really dumb to claim vig. However, multiple people have pointed out that he could be playing on our belief that mafia wouldn't do that, blah blah wifom. That being said, something I don't understand is why he would be banking on a town RB to claim if he's not town. Like, if you're scum or SK why aren't you trying to control your own destiny? He's basically relying on another town member to save him or he knows he's going to be lynched. Conclusion: Probably vigilante. This defense makes absolutely no sense. He's basically saying it's dumb for Blazing to claim vig unless he's town because anything else is wifom. Given the amount of roleblock roles available in the rolelist, it's not a stretch that he could claim being roleblocked, especially since vigis only get one shot and don't get their shots refunded even if they get roleblocked makes it very easy for him to claim it as scum. Calling someone like Blazinghand who loves to do funky stuff town simply because he claimed vigi is incredibly shortsighted. I also don't see how him claiming vig is going to get him shot if he's sk. He said he fired his only shot so mafia would think he's just a VT now, which would be great if he's SK. Given the amount of suspicion town still has it'd make sense for mafia not to shoot him. If he's SK he could've still been roleblocked too, and he could've expected that his kill on furer would go through. The claims on this last post show me you're incredibly convinced BH is town, meaning you know things I don't. Given your play so far I'd expect you to be smarter than this. Therefore you are scum or you're a RBer, in which case now is the time to claim. ##Vote: Snarfs | ||
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On June 11 2012 14:08 Blazinghand wrote: It can't be snarfs, can it? I don't see why not. He's the only one that's been "certain" of you being innocent, therefore he's either your scumbuddy or the roleblocker you're desperately looking for. On June 11 2012 21:26 ghost_403 wrote: @Artanis: I'm happy to discuss lynching Snarfs, but I really think that we have to take care of blazinghand first. Are you just more certain that Snarfs is scum, or do you think that blazinghand might be town? I'm more certain Snarfs is scum. We've lynched based on blue claims twice and we missed twice. I think it's time for a lynch on behaviour for once, and Snarfs is looking damn bad to me. I also don't like how everyone's ignoring my case on him, which further gives me the idea I might be on to something here, especially how Shraft said himself that the discussion on BH has been beaten to death, yet doesn't comment on the case I just made and points at someone else without building a real case on him instead. But I don't want to spread my accusations too thin, let's discuss Snarfs first. The way I see it, there is no way Snarfs is green. He is too certain of BH's innocence, which means he either has information proving that he is (DT/roleblocker), or he simply knows because he's scum. If there's a roleblocker out there (whether their name is Snarfs or not) they should really come out right now with whom they've blocked. We need that information and we need it ASAP. I've also contemplated the thought that there might be a mafia team with 2 roleblockers. A 3 player mafia team with two power roles could be seen as a good way to balance things and mess with the minds of town. This is why I'm worried about a setup based lynch too; we don't know how WBG balances his game. Host, can you tell us how many Mafia are in the mafia team, or is that information hidden? | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 12 2012 01:47 Snarfs wrote: Just trying to get 2 things here: 1) More information about Katina 2) Some sort of reaction from VE, even if it was just in the form of more information on Katina. Obviously, I was provided neither. I can see that as a viable town reason, though the viable scum reason also remains intact. It was the combination of the three things that made me think he was scum. His vote on Pandain encouraged me to look back through his filter and when I didn't see anything that indicated to me he was trying to find mafia, he jumped to the top of my scum list. The fact that he kept stalling in providing analysis on players was enough for me to keep my vote on him and remain convinced that he was scum. His vote on Pandain was one of many. Did you feel it was neccesary to look back at all of them? It seems weird to me that it just so happens that Hyaach is the one to make you look back at it. As an experienced Mafia player, you should be well aware by now that people not scumhunting doesn't equal being scum, especially newbie townies. It's hard to provide analysis when your English isn't that good as his clearly wasn't. I find your reasons for calling him scum meek at best. And yes, I'm aware I did vote for him at the end too. However, that's a lot later and based on different things. I try to get people to place their thoughts on players I find suspicious down in the thread. Ghost was a null read for me at the time (still is and I think there are higher scum targets for us to be going after) and by gauging other players' thoughts I work my opinion of both the player I'm interested in and the players who respond. Often town players respond well to such statements as it gives them an opportunity to try and find scum and I can usually cross people off my scum list. If I lead with my own thoughts then I just give the other players on opportunity to say, "Hmm yea, I agree with you, he is looking suspicious" which is often a null tell, as opposed to someone actually coming forward and being willing to offer thoughts on a player. Wait, first you find Ghost suspicious, then you find him a null read? You can't cut the pie and eat it, too. By only posing questions and not giving your own opinions you make it very hard for other people to read your intentions, something that's good for mafia. Scum doesn't know who people think other people think are town and would love to know so they can kill that person. By not sharing your own opinion first you give yourself an opening to which you can adapt your opinion before you've ever given it. Townies usually aren't that cautious. Townies will give their own opinions, and people that sheep your opinion should be treated with extreme caution and can be a scumtell on its own. Sorry to say I'm not the roleblocker. TL towns lynch people for dumb reasons all the time and I've been on those wagons a few times in the recent past. See MrZentor in Wheel of Fortune for a good example of what I'm talking about. See Pandain this game for another example. That's not to say they might not be mafia, but people need to stop assuming that just because someone does something stupid/suspicious that they must be mafia. In fact, often doing something stupid/blatantly suspicious is a town tell. I'm trying to be better than the average TL mafia player. My reads have actually been half decent the last few games I've played. From now on, if I think we're going to mislynch then I'm going to tell you that I think it's a mislynch. Especially if I'm in a game where we haven't nailed scum once yet. I'm also going to provide who I think is a good lynch instead (in this case, Katina), and reasons why (as I gave at the night post). Show me a game where someone has actually been dumb enough to claim vig night 1 and has then survived and gone on to win the game in a situation where the killing power of mafia was messed up on the night he claimed vig. I don't think people are that stupid. I mean, look at this game, people are already ready and willing to lynch him. Do you not think that he would have thought, if he was mafia, about the fact that people would probably want to lynch him? And I can point to you plenty of games where scum do stupid stuff too. See TL Mafia LI where VE claims DT with a scum check on Toad who claims Veteran. Both were scum. See BH this game, claiming SK. My problem with your defense of BH is that you seem so sure of him being 'probably vigilante' that I feel you have to have information that we don't. This means to me that you're either scum or a roleblocker (with a slight chance of irrational townie). Since you just claimed you're not the roleblocker, that leaves scum. I don't need to show you a game where vig claims Night 1 and wins. People like to claim, that doesn't mean that they're successful with them. And he didn't know the KP was going to be messed up before he claimed, so that didn't affect his claim at all. I don't think BH thought that much about his claim, just thought "hey let's claim vig since I have a KP role, yeah that sounds cool let's do it and see what happens!". Also, I'd like to hear your case on Katina, rather than have you ask other people what their opinion is again. If it's a really good case I might reconsider my vote. @Blazinghand if you're serious about helping town start putting together some cases. @Palmar then stop being lazy and read the damn case. @Shraft I used the posts that I found relevant to the case. The first post was relevant to me because it put him on the map as a questioning player mostly. He waits to find out where other people stand so he can make a safe choice. That post on its own is a null read, but it provides to the rest of the case. @Ghost_403 You said you're happy to discuss the lynch, yet you haven't discussed anything about it yet. What do you think about the case? @Zelblade, Katina, MrZentor, Navillus: Contribute. You're not saying anything (very useful). Also want to hear your opinions on Snarfs. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 12 2012 04:25 MrZentor wrote: Artanis, BH is scum. On June 12 2012 03:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote: @Zelblade, Katina, MrZentor, Navillus: Contribute. You're not saying anything (very useful). Also want to hear your opinions on Snarfs. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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##Unvote ##Vote Blazinghand | ||
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On June 12 2012 09:59 Blazinghand wrote: I'm here to talk about Zelblade. He's scum. My argument against him is mostly going to be analysis, but I'll talk about his meta as well. The two sources I'm using for his meta are LI, in which he was scum (link) and MTG Mini, in which he was town (link) to get a better understanding of how he plays. 1) Zelblade played D1 start to his scum meta. To get an idea of how Zelblade starts his scum games off, in LI he opened up with a bunch of questions and soft-defenses of town players (link)(link 2). This basically lets him make some minor contributions until he can find a safe wagon to hop on (link) but only after someone else, a townie, has made a case against that guy (link). He's not afraid to break ground with his vote, but he doesn't make any new cases. I'm not gonna talk about his D2 play from LI, because of the notorious 2-way bus that game-- our D2 was the opposite situation, where two players that weren't in his Scum QT where attacking each other. In his town play, Zelblade is different. As he goes into MTG, Zelblade is lurking but comes out swinging with a case against VE AND a case against NT (link). Also, as an aside, he seems utterly unafraid to lurk. He's apologetic about it, but he goes long periods of times, sometimes days, posting like once or twice in a 24 hour span with meh posts. He's admittedly a low-post-count player, but he doesn't put a lot of effort into "appearing" town when he's town. He'll disappear 20 hours, make a one-line post (link), then disappear for another 20 hours without contributing. When he comes back, he comes back with a read and a vote (link). I would hardly call that a case. It's two paragraphs. What you've posted right now is a case, what he posted in that post were some mild accusations. He's also asked a bunch of questions in MTG mafia. Three questions in a row: On May 22 2012 17:49 zelblade wrote: By the way is there a voting thread. Because I dont see one and the OP states that there is one. On May 22 2012 17:56 zelblade wrote: Hey marv who are you suspicious of at this point besides mattchew? Can you also clearly state why you think nova is town based off meta alone? Because I cant see it being similar. On May 22 2012 18:05 zelblade wrote: Acid so what do you think of nova now? Why is marvellosity buddying with nova a scummy thing to do? And he had many more questions. The lurking behavior is a sketchy claim at best; he's been inactive as both scum and town, though I will give you that he does appear to put in more effort when he's scum. I also don't feel he's put a lot of effort in "appearing" town in this game. Can you pinpoint out the exact posts this game where you feel he tried to "appear town"? So how does Zelblade play here? Well, he starts off asking weird questions (link) and making a soft defense based on setup that was inherently reasonable (link). Typical Scum Zelblade. And as soon as the heat picks up on Pandain, he hops right on board. To really contextualize his Pandain vote, let's check out how he responds to claims. I just showed how Zelblade asked questions in MTG mafia too, which means it complies with both his town and scum meta. He also hopped on the VE bandwagon in MTG mafia, and the Mouldy Jeb mafia earlier as well. You seem to find things that correspond with how he played scum and then completely negate to search for if he did these things as town too, which he has. 2. Zelblade voted Pandain like he does in scum meta. As town he distrusts weird claims: (link), especially ones without check crumbs (link) to back them up, and immediately calls out Zealos for a bad claim. Sounds like that informed his Pandain reaction, but when we see HOW he went about it, it's a lot more like his scum play than his town play. His reactions to Pandain's claim and Pandain's play D1 match his D1 scum play in LI almost perfectly. He calls out Pandain for diverting the discussion WHILE hiding behind other player's arguments (link): JUST as he did in LI with his case and vote against Tunkeg AFTER ET made the initial case against Tunkeg (link) This is how Zelblade operates as scum: he finds a townie who's already been pushed, usually for saying something irrelevant, but also talks about the D1 candidate "wasting town's time" or "diverting discussion" in addition to reciting main components of the case the others have. What I'm seeing in these two different threads (one as mafia, one as town), the main difference I see is how much Zelblade tries to put in effort when he's scum to look town. Zelblade has jumped on bandwagons both as town and as scum though, so bandwagoning Pandain is not something that points to Zelblade being scum. The second part holds more water, but isn't enough for me to consider him mafia. Contrast his town play in MTG when he votes to lynch MJ (link), in which he shoots down other cases and notably does not need to justify his case with talk about sidetracking the town, even though MJ WAS full of weird statements about consolidating evidence, jumping to conclusions, and odd vote justifications and non-justifications. He voted who he wanted lynched without fear and without worrying about repercussions. He talks about other players being scummy, but says this target is the most scummy. He does not waffle and waver. He doesn't justify his vote or ameliorate the hard edges his case with lip-flapping. His D1 vote on Pandain looks JUST LIKE his D1 LI vote, and nothing like his voting and case-making when he's scum. This is Zelblade trying to deflect attention and make up easy reasons to vote easy targets, just like when he was scum in LI. Wait, isn't he just talking about his case in both the previous two posts? It seems he pays more attention to making cases when he's scum rather than when he's town, where he talked more about the other suspects in the quoted posts. Section 3: Zelblades Reaction to Hyaach v BH is scummy regardless of Meta Zalblade's D2 vote on me (link) and his D1 vote on Pandain, coupled with the accompanying cases, look exactly like his scum voting, and nothing like his town voting. In fact, he spent so much time talking about how much he was "bugged" that scum would make my roleclaim and how Hyaach, who had to be town if I was scum, gave him "scummy vibes" that I thought he was voting to lynch Hyaach, not me. Hey look, we have an actual argument. I like this point. I just searched zelblade's history on MTG mafia and saw him post nothing of the sort. Look a tthis post and this vote. This isn't what a town player would do. If you were unsure, you would cast a vote for BH and say "yeah he looks scummier" and yeah, if you're gonna be afk for the rest of the day, you lay out your thoughts. But read this post and ask yourself-- is this how a town player writes a case, or how a scum player tries to duck responsibility and come out looking townie at the same time? In fact, this is not how Zelblade ends any of his vote posts as town-- he never feels the need to justify himself or fill himself full of doubts like this. He probably anticipated me not flipping Mafia and didn't want to look too bad on the wagon. Typical scum play. This doesn't look at all like MtG Zelblade. This looks like LI Zelblade. This looks like scum. Let's vote him, and not waste a lynch on the SK who wants to help town. I don't like how his vote looks either. Yet I have seen many vote like this and still flip up town. However, this point coupled with him talking more about scummy vibes this game than his town game do give me the impression that Zelblade is red, where the first two points were more null. I might change my vote, I'm not sure yet. Giving some examples in this game where he tries to "appear" green would be helpful. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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##Vote: Zelblade | ||
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On June 14 2012 18:47 zelblade wrote: The last part regarding my day 2 vote stuff. Hyaach gave me scummy vibes all through day 1, primilarly due to his first couple of posts which I felt were odd as well as a couple of other things. Which is also why at the start of day 2 I trusted blazinghand over hyaach - simply because I felt BH looked much better as opposed to hyaach. When hyaach's JK claim came, I was obviously suspicious of it due to the fact that it could be "confirmed" by using the mafia RB, as well as the fact that towns were unlikely to lynch claimed medics (which was, as he said, what he esentially was in this setup due to a lack of medics.) (Note that I am aware this isnt really the case in TL towns, but hyaach played somewhere else where this might have been the case, assumption here.) However, what made me doubt myself regarding my read on hyaach and BH was a couple of things. First off ghost's post on BH's meta made me realise that BH's posting as compared to his meta was pretty different, and there was something fishy with how he reacted to the claim (I did consider this earlier but thought that it was possible that he was hiding the fact that he was actually a vig, only later realising that his reaction was instant, which was actually pretty suspicious), as well as me rereading hyaach's filter. Hyaach's posting in d2 made me feel that he was more off an annoyed townie rather than scum. It was more of a gut feel of course. So why didn't you say this immediately? As it stands, you gave reasons for why Hyaach is scummy yet you ended up voting for BH. This did not change regardless of how you explain it afterwards. Why didn't you post these reasons when you voted for BH? If you had these reasons before you could've posted them. If you're making them up now it means you didn't have them when you were deciding on your vote which would still make your vote scummy as hell. And yes I did think that 1 of BH or hyaach had to be scum. Because I didnt realise how SK interacted with being roleblocked till later on, and I didnt actually consider that possibility. The primary reason why I felt the need to I needed to "fill myself with doubt" was because I was extermely unsure. There were things that made both of you look town, as well as things that made you two look scum, and I took a fairly long time to decide which one of you is scum. I find your meta agurement here weak, since I havent exactly been put in a (what I thought) was a 1-1 trade situation as town, and in a spot where I felt extemely unsure between two candidates. Yeah, who would've thought an SK would not be able to kill if he got RBed. That makes a lot of sense. + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 06:49 Snarfs wrote: On zelblade, there are two things that make me think that he's the best chance at hitting scum we have tomorrow (that have happened in this game, much of what blazinghand said in his case was meta and I think Artanis showed just how biased meta can be): The first one was the wishy washy post where he ends up voting blazinghand. BH and Artanis have discussed this already and I agree with them that there seemed to be quite a bit of cognitive dissonance between his thoughts and his vote. For reference, the post is here: [click] The second thing I noticed when reading zelblade was his strange insistence that claiming that there are 4 mafia in the game was a reason to lynch furerkip. Zelblade's reasoning wasn't that furer had scumslipped, but rather that furer had claimed that something was in the OP when it wasn't. This misrepresents what furer said though as he doesn't claim anywhere that it says in the OP that there are 4 mafia.: First he tries to push the idea that furer claimed that it listed 4 mafia in the OP even though that's not what ghost says. ghost claims that "It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip". I personally don't think that scum would ever blatantly lie and believe that furer was guessing the number of scum based on the number of roles available. I find it very hard to believe that anyone actually thought he was saying that it literally says in the OP that there were 4 max scum: Then, zelblade attempts to gain support from other players for a furer lynch. He hardly tries to pressure furer at all and is waiting for others to jump on the wagon first: He then continues to try and push furerkip for the next 3 days even though he has clearly disappeared from the game and would be perfect scum bait for a mislynch: Thoughts? The first part I covered above. Regarding the second part, from furekips phrasing I think it is pretty clear that he said that the front page stated that there was 4 mafia, when it clearly didnt. I found it exceedingly odd primilarly because there is absoulutely no reason for any townie whatsoever to lie about it, whilst there is a least a probable scum reason to claim something like this (to cover a scumslip). Obviously this doesnt hold water anymore considering that we have 8 players and the game isnt over yet.[/QUOTE] I found that post of his strange as well and I can't blame you for finding it suspicious. However, you implied you didn't think Meta was important. First off your agurement is mostly meta but ok. Yet in the first part of your defense you note First off ghost's post on BH's meta made me realise that BH's posting as compared to his meta was pretty different I'm curious. Do you think meta is important or not? If you do, there clearly are some similarities to how you played as scum in LI in regards of attempting to showcase yourself as town, where you didn't in MTG mafia. If you don't, then your argument for BH being scummy because of meta goes right out of the water. You can't have the cake and eat it too. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On June 15 2012 00:01 zelblade wrote: + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2012 07:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agreed, Blazinghand. Given furerkip's statement about how long VE's claim was, I decided to take a look at his previous claim in MTG Mafia to compare the length. I had a null read on VE's claim at first because of the fact that both Millers and veteran mafia players should claim miller in a game where the miller is self aware, this does slightly push the case in favor of a mafia VE, but it's still a weak case. How VE will handle himself the rest of the game is going to be a lot more important. My concern however is that he shits up the thread regardless like he did in MTG Mafia where he tunneled WBG hard as town, and did the same as Toad as mafia, meaning that him tunneling someone isn't indicative of alignment. To be frank, I'm not sure how to read him. VE as a veteran is likely to get checked by a DT. By claiming early he prevents getting checked by a DT. We already know he would check red now regardless of whether he's lying or not, so a DT check is now useless. I disagree with a few of the things said in here. (1) I dont see why veteran mafia players "should" claim miller when it is a risky move since it would not only put said player under a ton of scrutiny, as well as the fact that a counterclaim = ve is fucked since it is exteremely unlikely for there to be 2 millers in a 13 player game. (2) If both veteran mafia players as well as millers ought to claim miller, why is this a factor that makes him lean slighty that VE is scum? I dont understand this point at all. This feels a lot like him dumping suspision on VE for no clear reason. 1. I told you why miller would be good for claiming in the damn post. VE is likely to get checked because he's a vet, and as a miller he would show up red and would probably end up getting lynched because of it. By claiming he prevents a mislynch in a later situation. 2. Point to me where I said that I lean slightly red on him in this post? I said he's a null read, and he was. + Show Spoiler + On June 09 2012 05:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote: This shit is confusing the fuck out of me and I don't have enough time to read things through thoroughly at this time. My initial read on Hyaach was that his early comments were too dumb to be mafia. His RB claim after BH claimed to be RBed also feels like it's not something a mafia would do. Either he's playing dumb, or he's telling the truth. I wasn't planning on killing BH today but with no day kills it feels like someone has to be lying. The thing with BH not instantly bussing Pandain after his claim doesn't work in his favor either. My gut says Blazinghand, and that's where my vote goes. ##Vote: Blazinghand On June 09 2012 20:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Okay, it seems that for Hyaach to be town there needs to be both a Town roleblocker and a Jailkeeper. For Blazinghand's claim, there just needs to be a vig and a mafia roleblocker. Going to go occam's razor on this. ##Unvote ##Vote: Hyaach I have a problem with this vote. First off lets analyze D2. Imagnie you are scum and you have 2 free mislynches lined up due to some crazy night actions. Blazinghand somehow survived your hit, but its prefectly fine. At this point you are probably thinking that BH got jailed, but who cares since town will lynch him and hyaach. You dont give a shit who gets lynched first, as long as one of them dies and flips town. However, hyaach comes along and claims JK. At this point, you realise that BH couldnt have been jailed, as two JKs are exteremly unlikely and hyaach has no reason to lie. You thus conclude that BH is SK. At this point, who would scum want to lynch? If they lynch hyaach, they get not only a JK, but also a very likely lynch on BH the next day. 2 lynches not on them bringing the game to Lylo. If they lynch BH, town will probably figure out that hyaach is innocent and piece together the informtion. Free mislynch gone. Artansis's reasoning for his switch to BH is exceedingly wierd. He initally bases his vote off gut. Fine. However, he switches his vote, to a wierd occam's razor crap. First off, in hyaach's scineario there needs to be a town rb, a JK and a mafia rb. Not all that unlikely. In BH's case, there needs to be a vig, a mafia roleblocker, as well as another JK or roleblocker to stop scum's (missing) night hit. This reasoning for the vote switch makes 0 sense, and it feels a lot like him attempting to shift the votes off onto hyaach - because that is a better lynch for scum. (all this not taking SK into account since we werent considering possibility of SK at that point in time) Let's analyze D2. Imagine you are Town and you have no clue what alignment either of these players are. You have no clue if their claims are correct. First you go with your gut because the last time I went with my mind (Pandain) I was wrong, and I voted Blazinghand. However, after this post I considered the actions neccesary to make Hyaach town too great compared to that of BH to still go with my gut. Shraft after that made a good point about how BH being town would require more blues than I thought as well which made me doubt a lot, as you saw at the end of the lynch period where I was willing to switch to BH if there was another person if a no lynch was the alternative given furerkip's absence. + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 07:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Can't say I saw that shot coming. I was expecting myself, Snarfs or Shraft to get shot. Guess they got a blue read on her somehow, or her reads were making sense. Regardless, zelblade's case is still the strongest by far to me. It was also made by Blazinghand whom was doing anything he could to stay alive and is as unaware of factions as we are, so his case can be seen as legit in that regard. It also raised some good points regarding his behavior. ##Vote: Zelblade Another post I have a huge problem with. Oh I may be biased and all since its regarding me but BH was definately trying to stay alive. Dont you think that he would attempt to stretch the case as best as he could - to make it look "better" than it was? He would try to make a case on the person he thought was most scummy and yes of course he'd overdo it a bit. That's why I didn't agree with the first two sections of his case, but I did agree with the third part and asked questions rather than seamlessly taking over his case. You also posted this earlier in reply to BH's post: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 03:46 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Blazinghand, I've been more than willing to discuss any cases which I have done plenty yesterday, as well as provide my own case on snarfs which you debunked well. Let me provide you with my interpretation of your case. I would hardly call that a case. It's two paragraphs. What you've posted right now is a case, what he posted in that post were some mild accusations. He's also asked a bunch of questions in MTG mafia. Three questions in a row: And he had many more questions. The lurking behavior is a sketchy claim at best; he's been inactive as both scum and town, though I will give you that he does appear to put in more effort when he's scum. I also don't feel he's put a lot of effort in "appearing" town in this game. Can you pinpoint out the exact posts this game where you feel he tried to "appear town"? I just showed how Zelblade asked questions in MTG mafia too, which means it complies with both his town and scum meta. He also hopped on the VE bandwagon in MTG mafia, and the Mouldy Jeb mafia earlier as well. You seem to find things that correspond with how he played scum and then completely negate to search for if he did these things as town too, which he has. What I'm seeing in these two different threads (one as mafia, one as town), the main difference I see is how much Zelblade tries to put in effort when he's scum to look town. Zelblade has jumped on bandwagons both as town and as scum though, so bandwagoning Pandain is not something that points to Zelblade being scum. The second part holds more water, but isn't enough for me to consider him mafia. Wait, isn't he just talking about his case in both the previous two posts? It seems he pays more attention to making cases when he's scum rather than when he's town, where he talked more about the other suspects in the quoted posts. Hey look, we have an actual argument. I like this point. I just searched zelblade's history on MTG mafia and saw him post nothing of the sort. I don't like how his vote looks either. Yet I have seen many vote like this and still flip up town. However, this point coupled with him talking more about scummy vibes this game than his town game do give me the impression that Zelblade is red, where the first two points were more null. I might change my vote, I'm not sure yet. Giving some examples in this game where he tries to "appear" green would be helpful. In here, you say that the points against me are weak. You even defend me from most of his points, stating that his meta analysis of me was not really accurate, and only a small portion of the case held water. So I am the strongest case? No, from this I highly doubt that this would be your opinion. If you were town. I said that point 1 and 2 were weak, but point 3 was decent and asked for clarification of where he thought you feigned to be town. He gave me that and that gave me incentive enough to be willing to switch to you. Now that he died, you are my prime suspect and still are. Oh and another thing: Guess who was roleblocked n2? Wifom, sure, and whilst it is entirely possible that scum and BH stacked on VE, the other possibility that katina roleblocking him stopped the night kill exsists. It is already somewhere in my filter why scum would claim getting rb'd. Ghost already showed that this actually makes it more likely for me to be town than scum. I claimed instantly after I got the pm because I know I'm town so I have nothing to hide. As scum I'd probably have to think if claiming is a good idea. | ||
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On June 14 2012 18:47 Palmar wrote: Here's the thing about this lynch, we're in lylo. If 5 people, other than me, agree on lynching zelblade, he's not scum. So far at least three people have agreed to lynch him. So either I must think that these three people are all town, or I must think that zelblade is town, there is no middle ground. Which is why I'm going to read more, not only on zb, but also on the people voting him. There are only 5 townies in the game and we need to vote in a single block. Yeah because Mafia totally never bandwagons their own members to gain town cred AND fuck with people's minds into thinking it's going too easily. This post alone will make it so that we can't rely on that as mafia knows all they need to do is vote their own member over 5 votes to get you to switch. | ||
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On June 15 2012 01:48 Navillus wrote: I don't like the zelblade lynch very much. First one of the primary driver's for the lynch seems to be the case BH made on him which I'm not happy lynching off of for a few reasons. One is that the case is almost entirely composed of meta and I'm just not comfortable lynching based on meta, meta changes, I wasn't in those games so I can't really say how he was acting there and just going over a filter after the fact usually doesn't give the same feel, and additionally the fact is BH is a very good player, probably could have made a good case on a lot of people, and we just don't know what his motivation was. Wait, you don't like the case because it's meta and because you don't know the motivation for BH on making that post? Regarding the first point: What else would you like to lynch on? Meta looks at patterns that people have when they get a certain role. Some of that is done subconsciously and players aren't aware of it until someone else points it out, at which point it's too late. Secondly I can tell you quite clearly what BH's motivation was for making that case: Not getting lynched. What's the best way of not getting lynched? Making a case on the person that looks the most scummy. Who looks the most scummy? Zelblade. Of course he's going to make a case on the person he thinks is most suspicious because it's the easiest case to make. The only other major thing I see here is shraft's argument which seems to be based on Zelblades sort of flipping between Hyaach and BH and his weird explanation for his votes, this is a little more convincing, but it also isn't huge because on the other hand I've seen town do this type of thing fairly often as well as townies are usually much less worried about staying really consistent with their votes and reads than scum and are more likely to be ok flipping between people or not trying to vote the person that looks like it makes the most sense for them. Right now I don't like a Zblade lynch. Flip flopping is fine as long as you have good reasons for it. Zelblade basically said Hyaach looks weird, then voted for BH. That's not flip flopping, that's straight contradiction in one post. MrZ on the other hand, would be a great lynch. he's been seriously quiet with his opinions about everything for a long time now, throwing in a number of one liners to look like he's contributing without ever saying anything that could be read or disagreed with. He jumped on both Hyaach and BH but never gives a solid explanation or a read that could be debated on either of them. He doesn't give arguments for why BH was scum or if not why we should lynch SK, he's basically been getting away with saying nothing. At this point in the game this is the ideal scum play if he can get away with it which he definitely will not. ##Vote: MrZentor I still have to look at Artanis, I'm not sure about him yet. Please do. Also, if you're going to vote someone that doesn't have a case on him yet you should make a case on him. This is far too easy and reeks of scum given no one's actually made a case on Zentor yet. It seems you want to split up the vote in order to potentially get a No Lynch. If you really want Zentor dead, make a case on him because this 5-line summary won't do. | ||
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Actually I did mention my reasons for why BH looked scummy as well. Oh its definately jumbled up but its in there. Yes, you mentioned meta. Applying that same meta to you makes you look scummy too. I cant tell if this is sacarsm. If it is I just played PYP wherein SK's shot would not get blocked if he got RB'd, but his bulletproof would be gone, which happens to be completely different from this game. Yes, it was sarcasm. The standard for a SK getting roleblocked is.. getting his shot blocked. I presumed that was obvious. Meta is useful in certain cases. I think it worked pretty well in BH's case, though it isnt exactly going to work well in mine. The things that have been pointed out on me by BH are fairly small and unconclusive imo, which can be easily seen when I flip =/ My playstyle is generally is to just go with the flow and post whatever I feel like whenever I feel like regardless of alignment. By the way, artansis, I highly doubt that you find BH's points on me as the strongest case. So meta works when it's someone else, but it doesn't work when it's about you? That's some fancy piece of logic right there. I really hope this isn't the best defense you have. And yes, I do find you the strongest case. You're not doing much to make me think otherwise. | ||
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-Shortest post history -Comments on furer's mislynch thing -Null read on VE, would have stronger read on other people -Reads furer as slightly town -Doesn't see the Ghost case -FOS's MrZentor -Proceeds to vote on Hyaach -Weird reason for why he didn't vote on MrZentor -Continues discussing off topic with Pandain -Says he prefers to say too much (then why the short history?) -Thinks Pandain's claim is dumb but doesn't see it as scum -Keeps asking for other people to stop lurking, yet lurks himself quite a bit -Continues to hammer on lurkers while lurking himself -Believes BH's claim, votes Furer for a weak reason (inactivity), not dangerous for mafia as it never gained any traction -Apologetic nature of posts (I'm on my phone, I'm busy, etc) -Says he doesn't ignore BH's meta then basically does -Votes Hyaach -Suddenly doesn't think inactivity is a reason anymore I don't think his disappearing from the game really has anything to do with alignment -Says he reads Katina as town -Wants to kill BH because he's an SK and a good player, ignores logic against it -Goes after MrZentor when the zelblade lynch is basically locked in -Says he still has to look after me, yet never does before the deadline, feels like a Mafia that already knows they've won so gets sloppy First he defends Furer, then later in the game he calls his inactivity a reason for his lynch, then even later he doesn't think it's a reason to lynch anyone anymore. My suspicion is that this is because he thought furer would get modkilled and wanted to gain some town cred, but then when a vet like Palmar replaced him he suddenly didn't want to put any more heat on him. His exchanges with MrZentor have been interesting too. He starts out by giving him an FoS, then votes Hyaach. He also goes in against the Pandain lynch which was gaining a lot of traction, which doesn't really mean much as Mafia wants there to be some resistance to a lynch as otherwise people will start to think it's going too easily. Finally, he keeps commenting about lurkers yet he is the lurkiest player left. His posting history is only two pages long, and it really doesn't look good. Right now I want to see Navillus lynched the most out of all players, at least until I've examined Shraft. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Ghost_403 -Buys VE's claim on the ground of putting himself under a lot of scrutiny -Has some self doubt -Soft attacks Furerkips -Posts case on BH -Happier to lynch MrZentor -Comes back from his attack on Furer -Attacks MrZentor, votes him -Attacks Zelblade -Attacks BH -Votes BH -Keeps going after BH -No longer thinks MrZentor is mafia but rather bad townie -Hesitant to comment on Snarfs at first, then says he thinks it's null, prefers Zelblade -Doesn't want to lynch Zelblade in favor of Blazinghand -Doesn't want to discuss Zelblade with Blazinghand -Clears my name based on night actions -Votes Zelblade MrZentor -Null read/slightly pro town on VE -Furer being a bit rash -Calls out Ghost for legit reasons (Ghost claimed to misread VE always yet comes in with a read) -Soft accuses Navillus for voting on someone nobody has accused -Null read on Blazinghand -Minor contradiction on saying that he has no idea despite having said he has a slightly pro town read on VE -Suspects Ghost for suspecting Furer -Switches to Navillus after a "super scummy post" -Thinks Pandain might be green because of forced "accidental claim" -Thinks he might be scum because of lying about accidentally claiming -Votes Pandain -Argues a lot with Blazinghand about confirming vigis -Says he thinks neither BH nor Hyaach are scum -Comes back from that and gives an explanation why he thinks Hyaach is scum based on actions -Willing to vote Furer if a roleblocker comes up -Thinks Snarfs is probably innocent -Votes Zelblade Snarfs -Thinks Furer talks a lot and will be in trouble if he's scum -Mentions it's dangerous to write him off as a newbie -Asks questions at the start -Asks for old meta of other players, never gets back to this -Dissapointed by BH, votes on him -Calls out Navillus -Mild suspicion on MrZentor -Doesn't want to focus on setup speculation -Doesn't want to vote Pandain -Gives a good reason to unvote Blazinghand -Votes Hyaach -Thinks BH's claim of being vigi is legit -Recommends against connections until red flips -Seems eager to see Furer flip -Still thinks BH is probably vigi because of WIFOM -Wants to lynch furerkip/Palmar (soft attack) -Makes minor case on Katina -Dismisses Shraft's case on Navillus -Joins in on the case against Zelblade -Asks people to give their thoughts on Zelblade -Puts some pressure on Palmar to actually provide thoughts -Says he'll give the thread a reread, hasn't come back since yet Shraft -Calls out furerkip for his interpretation of VE's post -Keeps an analytical style of posting -Analyses furerkip as someone that probably played a lot on Epicmafia -Tries his best to understand Hyaach's posts -Makes a case on Navillus, no vote though -Thinks the case on MrZentor BH posted is sound -Suspects MrZ for BH's case but doesn't specify exactly what. Says He (MrZ) openly states that he has a hard time reading BH, while ghost says something and provides some reasoning on why it could be true, just to discredit himself in the next sentence. which is more something against Ghost than MrZentor-Happy with Pandain lynch -Not happy with a Navillus lynch anymore -Gut feeling that one of the mafia is lurking, kind of in contrast with his analytical approach -Makes a case against Zelblade -Thinks Zelblade and Hyaach are most suspicious -After no one died, wants to lynch zelblade hyaach or furerkip -Thinks furerkip probably is townie -Unaware that there are no medics in the role list -Believes BH's claim -Changes opinion on BH after a post from Ghost -Has a hard time deciding between Hyaach and BH -Wants Town RB to claim -Draws a bunch of situations with BH/Hyaach, doesn't consider the SK option. -Goes with his gut after pointing out a few rational reasons why BH might be Mafia -Wants RBer to claim -Doesn't want to attach too much meaning to the Furerkip replacement -Goes against his read by voting BH based on game mechanics -Thinks it's likely MrZentor is mafia -Doesn't think the Snarfs case was strong -Unvotes BH when he claims SK (This I view as very unlikely to be mafia), considers both Navillus and zelblade -Gives good reasons why he changed back to Navillus being suspicious -Suspicious on Zelblade I'd say don't blindly follow what I said here even if I flip today and flip green, but I would put greater stock in what Shraft and MrZentor say over Navillus or Ghost. I'd say my main doubt is whether Snarfs is mafia or not, but I find the Ghost case a bit stronger. Snarfs has some definite flaws too though and will need to answer for them. Be active guys. We can still win this if we try hard. | ||
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##Vote: Navillus | ||
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On June 17 2012 12:49 Snarfs wrote: Wait what? Ghost, are you serious? We were at MYLO yesterday and you had a red check on Palmar and you didn't even push for his lynch? Like, at all? You're saying that you would have rather played a hunch that zelblade was mafia because you were "greedy" and would have cost us the game were it not for a modkill... rather than either claim or push a Palmar lynch? Or push for a no lynch to get another check off? There's no way this claim is real, right? Like, no real detective would not claim at MYLO... or push their red check.. or push for a no lynch... There's no friggen way. If ghost is town after these shenanigans I will definitely eat blazinghand's hat. I can understand it to some degree. If he claims at that moment, there's a chance people won't believe him and that it's a mafia ploy to get people to not vote him, and as soon as he claims every night he'll either get roleblocked or he'll just get killed by mafia depending on if they still have their roleblocker. "Playing greedy" seems to be something town is doing a lot. See katina; we asked the remaining JK to claim but she didn't. I also don't think mafia would claim DT with the amount of blues that have died already. It just seems unlikely. @Artanis: On Navillus: I don't see how he could be a better lynch than ghost now. I definitely think that his vote on Hyaach while FOSing MrZentor was an awkward move, but I've seen townies do that many times as well. And I did notice that he backed off Palmar as you pointed out, but I would have to. Palmar is a great asset to towns and if it had turned out that he was a townie replacing in he no doubt would have been extremely helpful. I think that his vote on furerkip was genuine as there was no other wagon at the time. He only moved his vote after it was becoming apparent that furer was not going to be lynched (blazinghand and VE had both unvoted furer already). It's not specifically one of these individual points that points me to Navillus, it's the combination of everything altogether that makes me believe he's scum. The lurking while telling other people not to lurk, the vote pattern, everything just smells like scum to me. It's part logic and part gut. Need I remind you of Shraft who also was suspicious of Navillus? Every vote so far has been based on bad claims (Pandain, Hyaach, Blazinghand) and now you want to do it again? Have you learned nothing from the past few claims? When it's too strange to be scum, it probably isn't scum. What interests me more than your vote on Navillus though, is that ghost practically just claimed scum and you've already almost dismissed the possibility that he's fake claiming. I'm curious how you can be so trusting of his claim? You say that you don't think this is something he would do as mafia, yet when I looked through his history previously the only scum game of his I found was Werewolves which was both a PM game and almost 4 months ago. The timing of his claim makes no sense from a town player's point of view, especially if he had a red check on Palmar going into day 4 as he claims. I'm really curious how you could justify a town detective not claiming/pushing a red check/pushing for a no lynch at mylo when there's a chance we're about to lose the game?? And then so quickly accept the explanation that he was just getting "greedy"... at MYLO... after not lynching scum for 3 days... he got greedy... You say he claimed scum WAAAAAAAAY too easily for my taste. I accept the explanation because I don't think Mafia would make such a claim with this kind of explanation. It doesn't make sense. My gut says to trust the claim, and if his claim is correct I'm talking to a mafia anyway so I'm not too worried about how you perceive me. And how are you so sure that MrZentor is town? The guy is capable of doing proper analysis as he's shown in the past, yet has contributed little but one-liners and has been on the wrong side of every lynch with very little reasoning. I have no clue whether he's town or mafia, yet you waltz in here at LYLO and proclaim him town and you and ghost are suddenly on the same side of a Navillus lynch and I'm definitely having second thoughts about my town read on you. Because of how he's played the game. All I can say is read his post history and tell me you don't get a feeling that he's town. I just can't imagine a mafia playing the way he played. Mafia wants to look town, he's made no effort to do that. And once again, I'm not too bothered by you not having a town read on me anymore since you're probably scum and all. | ||
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On June 17 2012 15:45 Navillus wrote: Artanis could you clarify what things you're saying are scummy here and how they're scummy, because with a lot of the stuff on that list I don't see why it would make me scum, but on the stuff at the bottom. First on Furer yes my opinion changed, first he looked like an aggressive newbie townie to me so I didn't want to jump on him immediately, then I wanted a lynch when I thought that he was just lurking and avoiding posting when there might be heat on him, at the time that I posted that I didn't think it had anything to do with alignment he had already missed a deadline (maybe two) I posted that because it seemed like he had totally peaced out of the game (which guess what? he had...) and I didn't and still don't see how someone leaving a game after like one day indicates alignment at all, I've seen more towns do it than scum. On MrZ I FoSed him because he was suspicious and voted hyaach to pressure him like I said several days ago, on Pandain... ok so that's just a reason that I still could be scum despite going against that lynch, makes sense, isn't a positive reason I'm scum. Aaaand lastly and this ones big as you mention it a number of times in your list as well, I lurk. Yes I've been very lurky, yes that's bad and I shouldn't have, but your letting that be much too large a factor in your case when we're at mylo and we can't afford to make a mistake because I've been lurky. Lurking was bad but it also in no way points to me being scum, check my meta, seriously, this in no way points to me being scum. And I will say that I still talk about MrZ's lurking for example because while he may have more posts than me you can't seriously look at both of our filters and think he's said more than I have, there's a difference between lurking and making posts just to have a post count without saying anything and not posting much but actually saying things in your posts, both are bad but the first is absolutely scummier. Sure, I'll humor you. In this post, you basically said "okay, I did this and this and this and it all looks scummy but these guys are scummier!" And I'll tell you "no, Navillus, that is not true. You are the scummiest candidate here." I made a list of points to basically illustrate all you've said this game and any points you've made, not all of them are supposed to point to you being mafia, it's just a summary list. You went offtopic with Pandain when you saw the chance despite that you should know better, believed BH's claim for a weird reason, happened to stop hammering on Palmar once Furer got replaced whom you thought was mafia for being inactive? That was your reason for voting him, yet then you come up later saying I don't think his disappearing from the game really has anything to do with alignment So then why vote for him saying he was inactive? It makes NO sense whatsoever. You also said you still had to look after me then never bothered to before the deadline, probably because you thought you already won. Shame to say, you didn't. | ||
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On June 17 2012 13:05 MrZentor wrote: See ghost, if I were mafia, I'd be making analyses on random people right now to convince you I was town. At any rate, I don't see the point of analysis at this point. I know what I'm going to do, and nobody currently is doing anything that I disagree with terribly. We see if ghost can explain his weird claim. We kill either him or Nav tomorrow depending on his response. Then the day after that we kill the other scum.  Just to pressure ghost into a response. ##Vote ghost_403 MrZentor, don't you think it's weird that Ghost got all these votes so quickly after claiming? Basically, it means one of two things. Either A) You think I'm scum too or B) You think there's some mind games going on and Mafia are voting for their own player to try and win on the last day of LYLO. Now I don't think A) is very likely, and I don't think you're scum. I must say that I do have slight doubts regarding B), but at this point I find it too farfetched. Either way, I'm quite sure Navillus is scum. If you don't feel sure about Ghost I would urge you to vote Navillus and we can decide on Ghost vs Snarfs on the next day, though I'm quite sure Snarfs is the second scum at this point. | ||
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On June 18 2012 01:38 Snarfs wrote: It's not necessarily that he didn't claim. He didn't even push for a no lynch or push someone he claims to have had a red check on when we had to lynch scum or lose. Katina wasn't at MYLO with a red check on mafia while still voting another target... To clarify, you believe it's more unlikely that someone would fake-claim a blue when there's little chance of there being any more blues in the game than actually be a blue? Because I think that a time when noone thinks there are any blues left would be a perfect time to fake a claim. The odds of being counterclaimed have already decreased drastically and ghost has already shown us that he was considering the possibility of a counterclaim. He pushed someone he thought was red. Just because you're a DT doesn't mean you should only go after your checks. He thought zelblade was red and there was plenty of evidence to suggest as such. And I don't think a blue fakeclaim at this point would be good given that there wasn't that much suspicion on Ghost and given the fact that we've lynched everyone that claimed blue this game. If I was mafia and I took a look at the lynching history, I wouldn't say "hey no one lynches blues, let's claim blue!", I'd think "they're lynching all blues, let's not claim anything dumb". This makes me believe Ghost's claim is probably legit. I'm still torn between whether you or Navillus is the last scum. I agree that I get a scummy vibe from him, but your trusting of ghost's claim combined with your reasoning for believing MrZentor is town have me confused. If I had to decide in the next 10 minutes I'd go with Navillus as it makes more sense over the entire game, but I don't. Artanis, I don't think I need to remind you that of those 3 claims, 2 of them were faked. I'm not sure what you're trying to imply by asking me if I've learned nothing. I look at each claim and the circumstances surrounding it separate from the other. What I'm saying is that fakeclaims have tended not to work out for those people, therefore fakeclaiming seems to be a bad idea in this enviorment. Call it WIFOM if you must, but I don't think Mafia would fakeclaim, especially when there wasn't really much pressure on Ghost to begin with. It'd make more sense for Navillus to claim if anyone. I'm still trying to wrap my head around a scenario where a detective doesn't either push a red check or push for a no lynch at MYLO and I still think the odds of someone doing that are extremely low. And what do you mean it makes no sense for mafia? All he needs to do is ensure that he doesn't get lynched today or tomorrow and they've got the game won. It makes perfect sense to claim a blue role that is unverifiable. Hell, I've seen it done in newbie games in this exact scenario! I'll try and find the game I'm thinking of. We have lynched every claimed blue so far. Mafia does not want to die. I thus find it unlikely mafia would claim blue. I don't think you can find a newbie game where three of four lynches have been people that claimed blue. The enviorment makes it so that I don't think a fakeclaim is logical to do as mafia. If Ghost was scum, it wasn't a neccesary action to do. I hadn't posted any suspicion on him, only on Navillus, and this is something that would actually potentially _draw_ suspicion on him. That coupled with the fact that Ghost instantly got votes against him from at least one mafia since I know I'm not scum leads me to believe he is in fact speaking the truth. I'm not even sure what to say to this. You're basically giving mafia in every game you play a free pass to not even attempt to contribute? Perhaps it's bad because you want to policy lynch people that do, but the fact of the matter is I don't think he's scum and it's fairly obvious to me. That he played anti town does not mean that he rolled scum. I do not believe he rolled scum so I do not want to lynch him, ESPECIALLY at lylo. | ||
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I don't think Mafia is trying to mindgame us. Everything to me points to a Navillus/Snarfs team, and I do hope you feel the same way. Go back on histories if you must, or my post summarizing how people have behaved where I summarize people's filters. The fact that three people are voting for Ghost and I'm not one of them makes it clear to me that it has to be Navillus/Snarfs unless Mafia are pulling a big one here. Given how easily they could've portrayed you as scum (and Snarfs still tried) I hope you can see that it's them. | ||
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Why does that make you think I'm mafia, Zentor? | ||
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To believe he's town, we have to assume: -He checked who he checked -He got greedy during MYLO and decided not to claim despite having a red check I don't like the second one, but it's a TON more believable then what we have to assume if he's scum. If you're scum and you're forging a fakeclaim, ESPECIALLY on LYLO, you want to make it as believable as possible. Now, to assume he's scum, you have to believe that he thought "Okay, I'm going to claim Detective, and in my claim I'm going to say I found scum on MYLO but decided not to claim because I got greedy. That's sure to be believable and will give me tons of credit!" Call it WIFOM, but I find it INCREDIBLY unlikely that scum decided it was a good idea to claim to have checked a red during MYLO. The only way it makes sense to me is the scenario ghost described. His earlier checks wouldn't really make sense for scum to claim either since these were not the people he was talking about at the time. Instead, it makes sense when you look at the game history altogether, not his filter specifically. This to me means he either wrote exactly what happened in his mind OR he was preparing to fakeclaim from the start. I don't find the latter very likely, but let's assume he's been preparing this fakeclaim all game. Would it include claiming he checked a red during MYLO? If so, why? Unless anyone can give a proper explanation for that, I'm 99% certain that Navillus and Snarfs are the remaining two mafia. The only possible way this can be false is if MrZentor is GF, but given the roles revealeed I find that unlikely and I had a town read on him to begin with. I'm very sure now. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Well, that's great news, means MrZentor's definitely town. For Zentor to be Mafia Ghost would have to be mafia too, and we know there's only one mafia left. I also explained why it's extremely unlikely that Ghost is mafia, and this lynch proves it. I expect I'm still dying tonight though since Snarfs can't kill ghost as it'll confirm he's a detective. He can't kill Zentor because I'm definitely voting him. Means all he can do is shoot me and hope to be able to convince Zentor he's town. Zentor, if I die, please Vote Snarfs. If no one dies tomorrow and you're uncertain we can choose to no lynch until mafia decides to shoot someone. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On June 20 2012 02:41 Snarfs didn't write Yes I am. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
I'm pretty sure I would've gotten Navillus though once Palmar flipped and I read his filter again. The disconnect on his stance on Palmar was just too great. Overall, Mafia played better and we got lucky that Palmar got modkilled and that ghost happened not to check Navillus. Too much game speculation wasn't good for town and was what (should've) killed us. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
This read was confirmed when thinking about how Mafia would make such a fakeclaim. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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