EPT/in
Pick Your Poison Mafia
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
1) It is useful to know which mafia role we elect, yet 2) Deciding ahead of time publicly gives them an advantage in picking the town roles. To get around this quandary, I suggest we encrypt our vote selections for mafia role, and post the encrypted results. I haven't exactly googled but I assume there are websites that do that (I heard this technique referenced in the pick your poison game). Then after the selection phase we post the keys, and we can subsequently tally the votes. The primary usefulness is that it reveals what mafia role is in play. Secondarily it has the benefit of forcing scum to lie, which could be situationally useful later: e.g. we elect GF as scum role with RB in close second. Then someone gets RB'd (for the sake of argument, let's say it's an innocent child for best case scenario). Now we know that someone who voted GF is scum, as the scum can't vote for their own role, and therefore their vote wouldn't count. Thoughts? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:04 slOosh wrote: I like that reasoning HiroPro, but it makes the assumption that we will be split between 2 candidates. No doubt that mafia will play to the poison, adopting a playstyle that abuses said poisons for their advantage. The secret hidden vote poison is most powerful when there are multiple suspects / lynch candidates, and weakest when the town as a total is consolidated and not near lylo. I'm inclined to think that D1 is the easiest day to fissure the town and bring up multiple lynch suspects and split votes, and potentially drive the fear of no-lynch into guide town into a mislynch. It will probably be a weaker poison on D2 where it is more difficult to bring up serious lynch candidates, opposed to D1 when bringing up anyone is all cool and no reason for suspicion. Right now it is even number, and unless we get a medic prot (which is great), then with one lynch and one night kill we will have even number D2. Thoughts on the lynch lock? Lynch lock is the same any day it's used. I'm not even sure it's that dangerous late game. Hiro is right. The two worst poisons late game are secret vote and majority +1 required (which means scum literally can't be lynched if it's 2v1, for instance). Hidden ballot is in the same boat as no flip - terrible unless it's the last day. I think majority + 1 is the best to get out of the way day one. We will have to avoid a no lynch no matter what, and one extra vote shouldn't be too hard to come by. I don't like secret vote because in the event that the vote is close and the scum use it to pick one candidate over the other there's going to be a lot of distracting wifom debating why they chose who they chose. Better to just never pick that poison at all. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:42 HiroPro wrote: I kind of disagree with this, because in the voting system that we have, "secret hidden vote" can never change the result from 1 candidate to another; in the worst-case scenarios all it can do is either change it from "highest vote-getter" to no lynch, or from no lynch to "highest vote-getter". So essentially it's like a secret pardon that only mafia can use, or a secret trap door too I guess. As long as number of voters is even and people actually vote carefully (consolidate on 2 candidates), "secret hidden vote" is not that dangerous. How do you go from highest vote getter to no-lynch with a secret vote? From the rules it seems that if a player gets a majority of the votes first they are going to be lynched no matter what, because ties do not cause a no lynch. The dangers of secret vote are in the following two scenarios: 1) vote is tied, majority to majority (6v6 on day one, e.g.) Then picking this poison and ending up in this scenario means we might as well have elected mafia mayor, as they decide who gets lynched and wifom ensues. Which means we would have to avoid a 6v6, which means we might as well have just used majority +1 poison. 2)vote is not tied (say 6-5-1), but mafia uses the secret vote early on the player who ends up with 5 votes. Then that player would be sent home. Again to avoid this scenario we aim for 7 votes, which means of course we might as well have used majority +1 poison. Majority +1 and secret vote are both equally dangerous at the end of the game. If it's 1 mafia v 3 town, majority +1 means all three town have to correctly identify the mafia. Same goes for secret vote. Yet secret vote has the potential to give mafia mayor day one (outlined above) while majority +1 does not. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 13:43 wherebugsgo wrote: hiro is correct. If we are to use the secret vote it should be on days where we have an even number of players alive. I'm starting to think I'm mathing incorrectly but isn't it the case that there should always be an even number of players alive during the day phase? The only way there isn't is with a medic protect, assuming we don't no lynch. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 30 2012 23:44 prplhz wrote: I don't understand this. How does that open up the possibility for them to get busted for lying? The idea is that something like what sbrubbles posted happens. Which is the only advantage of encryption in the first place - Radfield is right in that encryption is meaningless in the sense of that townies will tell the truth and mafia will lie. But it's theoretically easier for mafia to lie when they can see how the townies are voting, and therefore blend themselves into the majority more easily. If they have to all pick beforehand without full knowledge of what town is doing or what town is going to say they pick, they run the risk of some weird vote totals happening. The problem with what I just posted is that it's only theoretical at this point - I think Radfield and toad are correct about roleblocker being weakest for them, which means practically speaking I don't think the vote will be close at all. ________________________ On the poisons: 1) From skimming the thread I see the idea of "it's so hard to reach majority day one" pop up (I think from toad). Is anyone else genuinely scared of this? I'm not at all. If everyone is then we can go for mayoral election, but I think that is a waste. 2) Majority day one is 6 votes (12/2 rounded up). First person to 6 votes gets lynched. If we have to get 6 votes anyway, then why not 7? I think majority + 1 is relatively safe here. I'm pretty sure HiroPro is right in that we only have to use five poisons (12 10 8 6 4 assuming there's only one scum left by the end and no vig shots or medic blocks or no lynches). So let's not get carried away thinking we have to use majority +1 AND secret mafia vote when we can just use majority +1 and never bother with the secret mafia vote. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 04:19 Toadesstern wrote: I think the instant majority poison does us no damage at all. We're going to have a hard time getting a majority anyways. At least that'y the way the most recent games played out. It's not like mafia will hop in there "olol let's hammer" and get 3 votes on the same guy lynching a townie. It would need coordination because we'd want to know who people are willing to vote for before actually voting to ensure we don't end the cycle early. If we can manage that coordination that poison looks the weakest d1 to me. But it's kinda risky if people lack the patience / coordination to talk things through before voting. That being said I'm not going to vote the majority +1 poison because as mentioned I think we're already going to have a hard time getting a majority anyways. The +1 vote for mafia poison seems okay and there's really not a lot that could go wrong like that and it might be dangerous later in the game. So yeah I'm willing to vote those two and as I'm apparently the only one that thinks the instant majority thing is not dangerous on d1 it's going to be the +1 vote for mafia poison. I don't follow this - the difference between +1 majority and +1 mafia vote is either us having to get 6 votes together or us having to get 7 votes together. If you're really scared about getting a majority together day one then why aren't you pushing for mayoral election? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
Mafia secret vote gives mafia the power to decide the vote (i.e. electing mafia mayor) in any of the following vote totals: 6-6 6-5-1 5-5-2 5-anything that adds up to 7. In this case mafia decides whether to lynch the player with 5 or let a no lynch happen. Which means we might as well go for 7 votes, which means we might as well use majority + 1 and never let mafia ever have a secret vote in the game. Hidden ballot is less dangerous endgame than secret vote, even. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 05:55 Zephirdd wrote: you do realize that secret vote and mayor can't happen at the same time, right? I'm saying that if there is secret vote and any of those voting scenarios happen, it's as if we've effectively elected mafia mayor for the day. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ ZZZZZ ILTQG LNVIF XWBWP QCJPH XGHTW IJBFH ADBGR WPKRG SXHRQ FQRXH DQAIH GKFIB KJVBP AHAMV AWLHH WXONO QUIBB ITBDP XSACT NIUPI UTAET ENGVF UCJBI OAXCD IFWNJ OPTZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On May 31 2012 08:27 Radfield wrote: Secret ballot is actually pretty non-scary once we only have 1 mafia left. I would probably rather slot Secret Ballot into Day 5, bump everything else up 1 and take out Majority +1 or 24 hour cycle. Majority +1 is a poor Day 2 slot, and should be used for a day when we have an obvious lynch target. Really though, none of the poisons are very dangerous if we use them appropriately. Was just about to post the same thing. I've been saying the whole time I really don't think we need to use both majority +1 and secret hidden vote. If there's going to be a day 6 somehow, then hidden lynch is fine on day 5 because we don't need to know the flip - either the game ends or it doesn't and secret ballot doesn't really matter day 6. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
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What is it about radfield that is so convincing to you? (1) First, On May 30 2012 20:01 prplhz wrote: Since the mafia role selection is done in PMs and we're not going to have the voting results or the role itself revealed, scum is free to do whatever. There are only two ways to know for sure what role mafia got and that is 1) to get majority+3 voting for a single role and 2) flip the scum who got the role. talismania's encrypted vote idea should be implemented because it's never going to hurt and it will create some content that we can use for analysis. Regarding the roles: Godfather is the safest because scum can only use it in two ways (have Godfather carry out night kills or not), this will make for the least confusion among potential town blues. Framer is the worst to give them because it will allow scum (and also townies and blues) to question all checks made by cop/tracker. Role blocker is also potentially useful for scum, especially in connection with claims (and counterclaims and fake claims) which I think could become very important this game. Will anybody get told if they are roleblocked? I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. So I think we should all agree that Godfather is the safest thing we can do because it allows for the least manipulation by scum and the simplest logic always applying for town. The only down side is that potential cop can't always trust town checks but that's very much acceptable. I don't think scum will focus much on the role that they get when they consider the roles that they give us. Can scum pick two of the same role to give to town or do they have to pick two different roles? As for the poison, my thoughts have already been stated. We should try to eliminate poisons that get stronger as early as possible. Majority+1 and secret vote are the best candidates for this. Here are my thoughts (list is malleable): Use first: Majority+1, secret vote, secret ballot Use in the mid game: Mayoral election, lynch lock Use at LYLO or late game: No flip, 24 hour lynch Some people already said that we will be at even number players all game long baring medic saves, but vigilantes could also screw this up. Also, the no flip is not only alignment, it is also role which may suck since we cannot know if we killed the Godfather or just a goon. @Kurumi Could you give us the reason behind your thoughts? Then Bunch of radfield posts about roleblocker being the weakest scum role Followed by On May 30 2012 22:31 prplhz wrote: Okay I'm convinced by Radfield. Either we get investigative roles we can trust, or we get roles from vigilante/medic/child pool which is pretty sweet. Both child and vigilante can easily confirm themselves and a medic save would extend the game by a full day. Anyway, I'm voting for role blocker. I was a little worried about role blocker interfering with power roles but the chance of even hitting power roles isn't that big and we shouldn't rely on them too much anyway. (2) First, On June 01 2012 00:38 prplhz wrote: Well, let me say that I am very disappointed in wherebugsgo so far. It doesn't look like he cares about town winning this game at all. In his first post he asks host a question, but he never got an answer to that question even though I got an answer to my questions that I posted later. That didn't bother him at all. His participates in the discussion about poisons and his thoughts are alright but it doesn't look like he cares at all what role we pick for mafia. This is bad because if we end up with split wagons then we cannot know what role they have and they'll end up being able to argue for any role. 1-shot claims and has a green check? They can argue that he checked the godfather. Red check? They can argue that he was framed. They'll be able to push a chaotic agenda way easier than if we know what role they got. Scum knows town roles and the only way town can know scum role is if we get majority+3 or a flip but wherebugsgo doesn't seem to care about majority+3. He doesn't seem to mind if the votes are split evenly across roleblocker+framer at all. He looks like he doesn't care at all about what happens this game and I that's scummy. Then On June 01 2012 01:13 Radfield wrote: I agree with that assessment prplhz, though I will say that I'm pretty sure I have seen bugs play this way before as town. I'm a Cop You Idiot comes to mind, but I'll have to double check. Also, bugs standard scum play is NOT generally ambivalence and coasting. I would say he's one of the most active scum players on the forum. Followed by On June 01 2012 01:25 prplhz wrote: Yea this doesn't look like his typical scum play. But wherebugsgo isn't generally this lazy as town either, so we've got a wherebugsgo who is going against his town and his scum meta. Meta isn't something that can be used against wherebugsgo in my opinion, so I'm just going to read his filter and see if it's scummy or townie and I think that he looks like he doesn't care about this game at all and that's scummy. He's not the only one I'm looking at though if you're worried about that. @Toadesstern What do you think about it? You are acting as if my post had "Toadesstern" in place of all the "wherebugsgo"s. You are saying that you want more content and that the thread is in a bad state, and then you say that you're not going to do anything until everybody has been in here and told you their vote. That's pretty self contradictory behavior. Give me something. _____________________________ Finally, What do you make of kurumi's case on Radfield? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 03:50 prplhz wrote: @talismania Your first example says "a bunch of Radfield posts about roleblocker" and those were what was convincing. Radfield clearly put a lot more work into thinking about the setup and making his thoughts clear than the framer supporters. I think that day0 was horrible because scum looks to be in a position where they can screw with town and we can't know what they actually picked. I have no idea about your guys who picked framer, not because you picked framer because it's debatable whether or not roleblocker is actually the best role. The role itself is hard to use (but so is roleblocker) but fact is that scum can use it to spread confusion by arguing against any checks. Checks aren't very strong in the first place and now they're going to get even worse. Anyway, the worst thing is that in the position we're in now it looks like scum can screw with town even more, because we don't know what role they got and then they can just argue that they have roleblocker if that fits their agenda and that they have framer if that fits their agenda. This game is open setup for scum right now and semi-closed for town and I think that's a huge blunder by town. The most important thing we had to do day1 was agree and I seriously expected anybody who disagreed with roleblocker to make convincing arguments for framer but all I ever saw was "it's hard to use" and some poorly thought through "it will mess with claims" (I'm guilty of that myself) and both of those arguments were addressed. Your second example, Radfield didn't convince me of anything. I have played with scum wherebugsgo and I know that he's usually a lot more active and he likes to have a lot of thread presence. Like I wrote in my reply, I chose to ignore that kind of meta because it's very useless with wherebugsgo. He's a strong and active scum player and he's a strong and active town player. Now he's not active. That's scummy. Kurumi's case on Radfield didn't convince me. It was based on Radfield promising that he would explain something sufficiently in the beginning of day1, and then Kurumi called him scum because he didn't explain it right now. Kurumi felt that pushing roleblocker was a scummy agenda and that Radfield was making promisses he couldn't keep just to further this and I think that idea is far fetched. Additionally, Radfield did explain and I think it looks legit. Actually I missed where you said he was scummy again in your reply to radfield when I read your post the first time - fair point. Before it seemed strange to me that it happened twice like perhaps you were trying to blend in and whatnot. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
I'm assuming it was after the deadline but if it was real time then I guess my encryption thing was pretty pointless. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 04:53 Kurumi wrote: No. I am saying that Framer is crap and he won't frame the check most of the times anyway and that we need to QUESTION ALL CHECKS EVEN WITHOUT MILLERS,FRAMERS,GODFATHERS AND OTHER THINGS. Second, it is not that hard if You actually try to hunt for blues, you know? You just need to actively do it. Besides, THINK. Radfield says that picking Roleblocker gives us chance to get a Medic. True. With GF/Framer the best picks are like Cop/Vig/Tracker, because they are bad/countered well. Buuuuuuuuut, then read what Radfield says later. He states that Medic is THE BEST role for Town. Then, why would Mafia pick Medic IN ANY CASE? Kurumi this is part of the reason I didn't buy into your argument that framer is the weakest for mafia under roleblocker. Let's say mafia has roleblocker and town knows it, and gave town a cop. Someone day 3 (so, 8 people left) says "I am the one-shot cop, I investigated X and X is town". No one counterclaims. (If anyone does then it's a 1 for 1 trade which is fine). Is there any reason to then question that check? The same scenario can be drawn up for tracker, which would only be different in that there would be more info but it would be less indicative of alignment (not of the tracker but of those he checked). This thinking is why I voted roleblocker, and why I'm surprised so many people went with framer (unless all the framer votes are mafia fakes). | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 05:11 Radfield wrote: No, mafia know what roles are in the game, and presumably can fake claim a role which does not exist(therefore not getting counter-claimed). However, once a single blue role flips, our second REAL blue role will counter claim the cop, so the mafia will get busted eventually, just not right away. I just realized that as well and was about to ebwop myself. Regardless I doubt there would be a fake claim for those reasons exactly except for maybe late in the game when it was close to mylo/lylo and scum were going for some sort of weird way to guarantee they make it there. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
(1) Kurumi - Radfield (2) HiroPro Both strike me as somewhat of red herrings, 1 more so than 2. I lean town on both Kurumi and Radfield. Kurumi because of how unnecessarily out-of-nowhere his case against Radfield comes, and how early. He obviously plays by a different playbook than most but that seems really uncautious of a scum move. Radfield I've never played with before but he seemed to be slipping into a town leader role like I saw in I'm a Cop You Idiot. I am surprised I haven't seen a case from him yet though. HiroPro's GF vote seems too good to be true. Now that we have Navillus's vote it seems like he actually was the only one to vote GF. Either the scum team really did 1-1-1, or he really was ignorant to the framer-roleblocker debate. And if the scum team did 1-1-1 then the other scum must have been similarly oblivious and that seems unlikely. If both truly are red herrings, they're likely good things for scum to try and latch onto and drive momentum towards. With that in mind, consider zepphird: First he kind of fishes around on Radfield: On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote: errr there is more to say, actually. First, The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's. Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say. Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes. Discuss. Then he drives the HiroPro story a bit: On June 01 2012 03:45 Zephirdd wrote: Hiro, why would you pick Godfather, aka the NULL vote? On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote: Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this? Then, after no one else is jumping on Radfield, he jumps off and hints at looking at Kurumi (who made the Radfield case): On June 01 2012 10:36 Zephirdd wrote: Hm, looking at Holy Roman, Kurumi seems to be much more careful on this game(ie. serious). Like wbg said, (if we take Holy Roman as Kurumi's town meta) his town meta is to troll. Anyone has more town games from Kurumi to analyze, and possibly scum games as well? I also retract any "accusation" I may have had about Radfield. He seems clean enough for me atm. Why are you guys not posting more? I hate lynching lurkers. There's almost too much of it to be true but on first blow, to me, it is indicative of scum trying to get a feel for the way winds are blowing in the town, hence the FoS. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 00:19 Toadesstern wrote: gosh  On the hiro matter, because prphlz vote does matter: Hiro looks a lot better on the first look imo but here's the thing. Hiro answered us "Would I really claim I voted GF when I am mafia as the only one?" and that gave me a thought. Now this prphlz business is somewhat important here. On the first look it seems like hiro looks way better because prphlz frankly got in here telling us "sup guyses, haven't voted" which is equal to the 1-1-1 thing I mentioned earlier. So hiro looks better because prphlz looks equally bad and yet the same question comes up: Would Prphlz get in here like that as mafia? I doubt it but again, I already said after PYP I'm not going to use that logic anymore lol. But here's the important thing that made me reconsider the hiro part: He said something along the lines of "would I really claim GF as mafia?". Now here's the OP I HIGHLY doubt the voting result would be something like "sup guys, You've got RB" or "sup guys, you've got framer" because mafia could figure that out themselves just fine the moment one of them gets to be RB or framer so I'd say they get the real voting results. Let's assume prphlz is telling the truth for a second. If that's the case mafia knew there was one guy who has not voted because that's simple math. If that's the case it's perfectly reasonable to just claim GF because there's someone out there who's looking equally bad or even worse. Fancy conclusion: I'd say hiro knows exactly what he's doing and is hoping that the other guy looks worse or at least equally bad while still having the benefits of the 1-1-1 thing. Remember Hiro has not made it clear what he wanted to vote and while that may have benefits it makes the perfect excuse for this scenario we're in right now. I'd say we have found mafia in hiro. This hurts my head - first, Does mafia getting the voting results mean that they got the results of who everyone voted for? Just the totals? Just the winner? Second, if they did get full results, how could that have any bearing on hiro's play? He voted GF before the deadline no matter what, therefore he would have to explain it no matter what. How does he modify that knowing that prp didn't vote? I think there are less convoluted reasons to vote Hiro that people have already raised, if you're going to vote Hiro. (On a sidenote toad I think I owe you an apology because it looks like you were right about the difficulty in getting to a majority day one.) ___________________ @Radfield Of course I would also vote Zephirdd (and probably will unless we need a 6th/7th vote somewhere else - avoiding no lynch is the top priority) - it's not just that he's been vacillating, it's that it feels like he's been doing it to see if anyone he pushes will get momentum in the town. He's playing it pretty out in the open as well (owning up to it with his last "I change my mind too much" post) which is brazen but probably the correct play if he's scum. I'm curious about how you're thinking about the game as a whole - you've also been throwing some names out as though to see what sticks (sloosh, sbrubbles, zephirdd) but I haven't seen anything like the analysis you did to parse apart Blazinghand and tunkeg in I'm a cop you Idiot. For instance, is your consideration of voting zephirdd based on what hiro said, what I said, what you thought yourself, etc? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
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On June 02 2012 07:02 slOosh wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eD8O8.png) "e:" denotes that the vote was encrypted before the deadline (I've also checked each one - they are all valid). So the 5 are Kurumi, talismania, Toadesstern, wherebugsgo, Radfield. As I've said before, because its 5 people (more than 3, the number of scum) there is really no telling alignments from this. You could glean slight tells for people's response to the plan itself but I think the Hiro's GF vote garnering enough suspicion for a vote makes no sense and people pushing / supporting that is wickity wack. This reminds me I didn't post my key yet (I was on iphone when day started): + Show Spoiler + DKRUS-UXBZF-RFIEM-QRXCU-BBZWY-UHHNC-EQDLH-WEBAR-FYYCQ-HOKQD-SCOLL-HUKAP | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: Ok screw this, hiro is not going to happen... need to think and read and vice versa Doesn't he have like 4-5 votes? Unless I'm really reading the rules wrong, majority right now is 6 (Number of players divided by two rounded up) with a supermajority of 7 required to avoid any complications from the secret vote if zephirdd also hits 5. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 08:12 Radfield wrote: I'm here toad, and I agree that zephirdd looks like a terrible lynch. Particularly because he basically blueclaimed. Lets let mafia take care of him, there is absolutely no need for us to lynch someone who is bluehinting: Lets just leave him alone. If he is still alive tomorrow with no claim, and still looks scummy, THEN we deal with him. ##Vote: Hiropro I still need to filter him though ugh this is actually a good point. He made that post before he even had two votes and that line is rather strongly worded. Zephirdd you back yet? | ||
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talismania
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talismania
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On June 02 2012 08:09 Toadesstern wrote: Ok we need to get people in here. It's 1 am for me and I don't know how long I'll be awake. A zephird lynch still looks awful for me. Hiros voting him, risk is voting him, navillus is voting him. There's bound to be a mafia within those 3 and Kurumi and talis are nulls for me. That's really not as convincing as people make it look and we have 3 hours left... Do you think risk is scum? You later backed off hiro when you found out he wasn't the hiro you thought he was, and navilus of course flipped town. What do you make of zephirdd's claim? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
I want to prod your mind on the bolded bits below: On May 30 2012 20:01 prplhz wrote: Since the mafia role selection is done in PMs and we're not going to have the voting results or the role itself revealed, scum is free to do whatever. There are only two ways to know for sure what role mafia got and that is 1) to get majority+3 voting for a single role and 2) flip the scum who got the role. talismania's encrypted vote idea should be implemented because it's never going to hurt and it will create some content that we can use for analysis. Regarding the roles: Godfather is the safest because scum can only use it in two ways (have Godfather carry out night kills or not), this will make for the least confusion among potential town blues. Framer is the worst to give them because it will allow scum (and also townies and blues) to question all checks made by cop/tracker. Role blocker is also potentially useful for scum, especially in connection with claims (and counterclaims and fake claims) which I think could become very important this game. Will anybody get told if they are roleblocked? I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. So I think we should all agree that Godfather is the safest thing we can do because it allows for the least manipulation by scum and the simplest logic always applying for town. The only down side is that potential cop can't always trust town checks but that's very much acceptable. I don't think scum will focus much on the role that they get when they consider the roles that they give us. Can scum pick two of the same role to give to town or do they have to pick two different roles? As for the poison, my thoughts have already been stated. We should try to eliminate poisons that get stronger as early as possible. Majority+1 and secret vote are the best candidates for this. Here are my thoughts (list is malleable): Use first: Majority+1, secret vote, secret ballot Use in the mid game: Mayoral election, lynch lock Use at LYLO or late game: No flip, 24 hour lynch Some people already said that we will be at even number players all game long baring medic saves, but vigilantes could also screw this up. Also, the no flip is not only alignment, it is also role which may suck since we cannot know if we killed the Godfather or just a goon. @Kurumi Could you give us the reason behind your thoughts? I'm particularly interested to hear your thoughts on this part, I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. and why you thought that was true. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 04:55 talismania wrote: Did mafia get voting results in real time or after the deadline? I'm assuming it was after the deadline but if it was real time then I guess my encryption thing was pretty pointless. On June 02 2012 02:15 talismania wrote: This hurts my head - first, Does mafia getting the voting results mean that they got the results of who everyone voted for? Just the totals? Just the winner? Second, if they did get full results, how could that have any bearing on hiro's play? He voted GF before the deadline no matter what, therefore he would have to explain it no matter what. How does he modify that knowing that prp didn't vote? I think there are less convoluted reasons to vote Hiro that people have already raised, if you're going to vote Hiro. (On a sidenote toad I think I owe you an apology because it looks like you were right about the difficulty in getting to a majority day one.) ___________________ @Radfield Of course I would also vote Zephirdd (and probably will unless we need a 6th/7th vote somewhere else - avoiding no lynch is the top priority) - it's not just that he's been vacillating, it's that it feels like he's been doing it to see if anyone he pushes will get momentum in the town. He's playing it pretty out in the open as well (owning up to it with his last "I change my mind too much" post) which is brazen but probably the correct play if he's scum. I'm curious about how you're thinking about the game as a whole - you've also been throwing some names out as though to see what sticks (sloosh, sbrubbles, zephirdd) but I haven't seen anything like the analysis you did to parse apart Blazinghand and tunkeg in I'm a cop you Idiot. For instance, is your consideration of voting zephirdd based on what hiro said, what I said, what you thought yourself, etc? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 08:05 prplhz wrote: @talismania Because if town doesn't know what role that scum has then it very much opens up the possibility of scum arguing for whatever role that benefits them (and townies would argue along with them). You got a check? Well watch 1 mafia and 2 townies say that scum probably got framer and framed whoever. I've said this several times already. Also, if we decided that it was more important that scum didn't know what role they got than that we elected some specific role then we would kill a lot of discussion on day0. [...] Hmm ok. The reason I asked was because I feel like you were actually articulating the optimal scum strategy. I was thinking about the hiropro push yesterday and how that was based entirely on the notion that scum would want to vote 1-1-1 to be as safe as possible from any analysis of the way votes were cast. Then I realized that the actual best scum strategy would be to do what you posted - get everyone in town to vote for one role, then blend in among the votes. Furthermore, in that case they would know exactly what roles to give town (you were arguing for godfather at the time - which means you were arguing essentially for town to receive a useless tracker). And there was still plenty of discussion d0. | ||
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talismania
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On June 03 2012 13:43 Zephirdd wrote: Bntw posting from phone while drunkl. Hooray saturdays. I liedm. I was trying to grab shots in my face. Radfield, idk where you took that -m blue, but ita fun how you instantly bring that I'm not dead. My post at night was a roleblocker/shot magnet. I was not roleblocked so I assume there is a framer out there. toad, you tk a lot abou prp defending naviludd, but how does defending a town makes him scum? akso I want to see more risk posts. He is posting too little imo. I switched my vote for this? Zeph - what exactly did you mean, if anything, when you initially wrote that "pushing me is the worst move atm" thing? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 11:13 Radfield wrote: Oh yes, and 1 shot cop should claim obviously. It's possible that this is a decent time for any innocent child to claim, but I'm not sure. There is an optimum time for the IC to claim though, and it's not necessarily only when they are on the ropes. Consider that an IC dying from a nightkill before they have claimed is a completely useless role. The strength comes from us having a confirmed townie for a while, and forcing mafia to shoot in a particular direction(shielding other strong players and the other power role). Tracker should claim if he tracked mafia to a kill or a frame, though ideally you simply push and build a case first, and only claim if necessary. Standard stuff really. If we have an innocent child I disagree with him claiming now (unless he's up for lynch). The optimal time would be when we have the mayoral election (presumably D3) so that we can elect a guaranteed townie. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 05:19 Radfield wrote: [...] From my vantage point: Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz All of a sudden this looks very easy. Even if I am wrong about 2 scum being in the roleblocker camp, I think we can all agree that there is at least one. It's possible I am wrong about prp or talismania, but I doubt it right now. Both their filters look solid. So that means one of risk.nuke or Toad is very very likely scum in my opinion. In fact, it's very possible(even likely) that both are scum. To me right now that scum feels like Toad. As I mentioned I haven't re-filtered him yet, but I've had a slight scum read on him all game. Risk.nuke I'm pretty null right now, but I got an 'ok for now' feeling from his filter. He's not putting in much effort, but he has content despite that. Anyways, that's not a case on Toad by any means, but I wanted to write that out. Back to the grind. Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out? This is almost exactly how I feel. Anyone who is not looking at the game through the lens of the d0 votes needs to do so. There's a couple of assumptions to get to mafia having framer that should be stated though: 1) HiroPro is town. Therefore scum did not vote 1-1-1 and likely voted 2-1-0. A big assumption I suppose but as I wrote d1 I can't imagine that if he were scum his scumbuddies would have let him vote GF. Maybe if he's scum with Risk.nuke, who brought up the 1-1-1 thing but that's the only scenario I can see it in. 2) No one claiming being roleblocked means that mafia don't have a roleblocker - the assumption implicit there is that mafia wouldn't use their roleblocker against themselves, knowing that using it on town would give away how the votes played out. Or maybe they didn't use it at all. Would a mafia roleblocker have to use their power? I'm really iffy on this assumption. It depends on if the scum team was smart enough to realize that using the roleblocker would immediately point to two people on the framer list. I feel like they would be but who knows. So - if there is a framer it's either toad + risk.nuke Radfield + prp I was actually leaning towards toad + radfield earlier because of how buddy-buddy toad acted towards him but now it's clear that is unlikely to be the case, unless they think they need to bus for some reason I guess. Toad and prp can't be together because of the strength of the case toad is making, with the same caveat as with toad and radfield. Radfield + prp is the "conspiracy theory" pair. To make that case you have to assume that radfield freely cast doubt on prp, even agreeing with prp being shot (although come to think of it I guess that if he was scum he would know that town didn't have a vig so scratch that), and then backed down later. To complete the conspiracy theory, add in zephirdd, whom rad and prp acted together to save by getting the navilus train rolling. The main problem I can't get past with this pair is prp's play to outright claim "Oh my vote didn't count, btw" Is that really a super-clever scum excuse? I mean (1) having that idea is borderline genius and (2) actually following through with it is incredibly ballsy. Why risk that when you could just lay low amongst the 6 RB voters? Toad + risk.nuke on the other hand has little to argue against it (there's not much to argue for it either I suppose - toad is as confusing and difficult to understand as he was to me pick your power. Risk-nuke has a lot less thread presence than he did that game but he hasn't really done much yet either). They haven't interacted much with each other. Toad has thrown out a few names, as has risk, but each other's have not come up I don't believe. I don't know who the third would be. I would add zephirdd again because toad said he didn't like the zephirdd lynch d1, but risk.nuke has come out in favor of such a lynch today. One of the other framer voters I guess. If assumption (2) above is wrong and it's 1-2-0 and there is a roleblocker and not a framer, then it's some pair out of sbrubbles, kurumi, zephirdd, and sloosh Which means it's unlikely to be sloosh and sbrubbles because of sloosh's hard pressure at the end of day one (unless that was just really forward-thinking play or something. It is interesting that sloosh hasn't continued to press sbrubbles day two. Acually a quick filter check shows that he's away this weekend so that explains that.). It's also unlikely to be kurumi and zephirdd because of kurumi's stance toward zephirdd. Any combination of the others is possible in my eyes. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 07:27 Toadesstern wrote: 1) You say you don't believe in the 1-1-1 unless risk is mafia. Later you say you think it's me + Risk ? 2) Prplhz's vote can be used for 1-1-1 as well, you considered him the alternative yet you say it has to be 2-1 either way? 3) You say my case on Prplhz is strong and therefore doubt I'd be bussing him bud at the same time doubt Rad would bus me? What's the difference that makes you think one is possible and the other one is not? 4) Prplhz playing using the "invalid vote" thing. You played PYP as well? You saw sent "counterclaim" risk & marv as mafia? You saw barundar counterclaim the medic as SK ? I'd say at least equally ballsy and as mentioned the reason I don't consider that an argument anymore lol 5) I am as confusing as in PYP? What did I flip in PYP again? 6) Yeah the third in that "mafiateam" (I'm making it in " " tags because I'm not mafia...) would be Zephirdd. Because frankly Zephirdd and I like each other so much. As seen when I did the case on prplhz. 1) if it's 1-1-1 then I doubt you're scum because of how involved you were in the d0 discussion and because you pushed hiropro so hard yesterday. So yes, if it's 1-1-1 I think risk.nuke could certainly be involved. But I don't buy that it is 1-1-1. 2) obviously anyone's vote can be used for 1-1-1 if it is that way, but again I don't think it is. 3) I say that you are making a strong case on prp and are therefore unlikely to be mafia with him. I say that radfield is making a case on you and is therefore unlikely to be mafia with you. Both are the same to me - I think you misread. 4) of course prp doing that is possible. Hence the paranoia of playing mafia, "the educated guessing game of epic proportions" or whatever tl calls it. I'm not ruling prp out by any means but at some point you have to favor the simplest explanation. 5) true, which is why I put that bit in the "there's not much arguing for toad and risk" section. 6) the third could be anyone in any of these scenarios really but you're right in that I hadn't really considered your interactions with zephirdd today relative to yesterday. | ||
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talismania
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On June 04 2012 07:45 talismania wrote: 1) if it's 1-1-1 then I doubt you're scum because of how involved you were in the d0 discussion and because you pushed hiropro so hard yesterday. So yes, if it's 1-1-1 I think risk.nuke could certainly be involved. But I don't buy that it is 1-1-1. 2) obviously anyone's vote can be used for 1-1-1 if it is that way, but again I don't think it is. 3) I say that you are making a strong case on prp and are therefore unlikely to be mafia with him. I say that radfield is making a case on you and is therefore unlikely to be mafia with you. Both are the same to me - I think you misread. 4) of course prp doing that is possible. Hence the paranoia of playing mafia, "the educated guessing game of epic proportions" or whatever tl calls it. I'm not ruling prp out by any means but at some point you have to favor the simplest explanation. 5) true, which is why I put that bit in the "there's not much arguing for toad and risk" section. 6) the third could be anyone in any of these scenarios really but you're right in that I hadn't really considered your interactions with zephirdd today relative to yesterday. Actually, another point in light of the case rad just posted: why did you reply so defensively to my post at all? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 09:20 Radfield wrote: [...] I hope people have noticed that Toad has moved on from defending himself, to attacking me. Actually I think it's more telling that toad HASN'T been attacking radfield. I mean, he's attacked rad's scumhunting abilities, but he hasn't said that he thinks rad is scum, or that rad is pushing a scum agenda, nor does it even seem like he has considered it. That's strange as hell if he's town. toad, what do you think Rad's alignment is? Why? You think prp is scum. Who do you think the other two are? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
Maybe it's because I'm tunneled a bit on toad but I do find it interesting though that as soon as he was coming under a lot of pressure the risk.nuke thing just popped up. There were a couple posts a few pages back that were like "yeah toad is scummy but let's lynch risk!" | ||
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talismania
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On June 05 2012 06:15 prplhz wrote: talismania with the god damn ninja vote right there. After I say I'm going to hammer Toadesstern but without posting in the thread and while pushing risk.nuke. I actually thought it was weird you hadn't hammered him yet when I read that and went to the voting thread. I refreshed a couple of times and then figured I ought to do it myself. | ||
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talismania
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talismania
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On June 03 2012 06:03 talismania wrote: toad Do you think risk is scum? You later backed off hiro when you found out he wasn't the hiro you thought he was, and navilus of course flipped town. What do you make of zephirdd's claim? Which suggests to me that he did not feel like talking about risk.nuke (or zephirdd - or both) if he didn't have to. He replied vociferously to everyone else that asked him a question, and even posts that just mentioned him so I doubt he just missed it. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
##Vote: risk.nuke | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 07 2012 04:57 prplhz wrote: Also, since no one claimed roleblocked we can assume that they have a 2-shot framer, and since two cycles have passed we can be kind of sure that he used both his shots. Since we don't have any other visiting roles and a night killing scum will always visit someone, our tracker is essentially a cop now. So make sure you breadcrumb everything for everybody else in case you die. This is not necessarily true. I pointed this out yesterday - if mafia got roleblocker they probably wouldn't use it at all, because using it on anyone non-mafia would result in a townie learning that there's a roleblocker and therefore that 2 of the framer voters are scum. Also consider that you're probably right about them giving town a tracker and innocent child (unless we have a really dumb medic and an equally risky scum team) - why bother with roleblocking in that situation when you only have 1 person out of 9 that you could possible affect? (The GMs never answered me if a roleblocker would be allowed to not use their power - if they had to use it then they could just use it on their scumbuddies.) _________________ State of this game: prp and hiro are likely town because of their interactions with toad. It would actually be really funny if they're the last two scum and toad just wanted to bus someone early and often so that two of them could win it in the endgame or something. But very unlikely. sloosh and kurumi are wild cards. both voted toad, sloosh with a little more reasoning, kurumi more quietly. I think they should be nearer the end of lynch orders. Behaviorally, sloosh has been playing the town boyscout role, doing all the homework-y stuff like tabulating votes and cross-checking encryptions and such while kurumi has just stirred the pot and that all is null to me. zephirdd, sbrubbles, and risk nuke have two scum among them. zeph and sbrubbles reacted basically the same way to the toad situation which is kind of weird (see their posts page 26). Either zeph posted what he did because he knew he needed to build distance between both himself and toad + risk, and sbrubbles just sheeped it as town, or sbrubbles saw what zeph did as a blueprint to copy for him to build distance etc etc. Both have some D1 points against them in that toad stated that he was against a zeph lynch and that sbrubbles followed toad on the hiropro lynch. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
-Both put some pressure on hiro (sbrubbles more so D1) as did toad. -Both said toad was scummy but that risk.nuke was a better alternative. Their posts are strikingly similar. -Toad never commented on sbrubbles like he said he would; toad also openly stated he thought lynching zephirdd was a bad idea, but gave no reason why (on D1). -Zeph's fake blue claim and retraction makes little sense at first but given that innocent child + tracker is likely it actually makes a lot of sense. He couldn't keep the blue claim up or it would come back to bite him later. -Sbrubbles has simply done nothing the whole game, aside from pushing hiropro. Everyone else has either contributed or been at the wrong end of toad's finger. Relevant quotes: + Show Spoiler + HiroPro On June 01 2012 04:39 Toadesstern wrote: That's got to be a joke. Godfather? Why?!?! It was clear the decision would be either RB or framer at some point and you chose to pick Godfather and completly wasted your vote? Someone explained (I think risk?) d0 that the only solution to not screw up as mafia is to pick 1-1-1. 1 guy votes RB, one guy votes framer, one guy picks GF because that way they add 1 to each thing and don't change a thing. So wtf? On June 01 2012 05:29 Toadesstern wrote: Well you've got to agree that it's looking weird that you are apparently the only one who voted GF when we talked about how 1-1-1 is the only way for mafia to not screw up and all the talk d0 was either about RB > framer or about framer > RB. Why didn't you talk about this? This is essentially the same thing I was talking about in PYP when talking with risk. I have no problem with people telling me they think otherwise and that we should change a "plan" but I do have a problem with people ninja-voting without telling us screwing us over. If what you said is reasonable (and I don't think it is) you should have tried to explain to us why what you said is reasonable. Yet here you stand, voting GF and it's apparently not important enough to you what role mafia gets because you haven't told us so and you still voted GF and not, like everyone else either RB or framer. That's really odd. On June 01 2012 03:45 Zephirdd wrote: Hiro, why would you pick Godfather, aka the NULL vote? On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote: Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this? On June 01 2012 04:32 Sbrubbles wrote: I'm not buying this, Hiro. It was pretty clear from the thread that it was a discussion between framer and roleblocker. If you thought it was better to give mafia the framer, instead of roleblocker, why would you vote for the 3rd option? Also, why did/what made you change your mind about about your vote partway through D0? On June 02 2012 07:00 Sbrubbles wrote: First of all, one thing we've got to remember is that we can only afford 1 NL, and it's better that we use it up later and not sooner. If worse comes to worse, with no NL and no doc saves, we may reach a day 5 mylo, which should be NL followed by lylo day 6 (with the plus side that we can pick and waste whatever poison we want day 5, since it will be NL). Lynching Nautillus would be going for a lurker lynch and I don't think we have to resort to that yet. Also, between lurkers, I'd rather lynch risk.nuke, whose only contribution was to throw dirt and dissapear without any explanation: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote: I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie. On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird. Hiro simply hasn't posted anything since back then. His behaviour was reasonably active on D0, so I don't buy that it wasn't clear to him "that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker". His case on Zephirdd was that Zephirdd hadn't contributed to the discussion, though Zephirdd was asking questions, like Sloosh was doing, which is a reasonable way to get discussion going early on. Hiro's filter before that case, though, consisted of just as little discussion, except for mechanics talk, which mafia can also do. He is playing scummy and we should lynch him today. ##Vote: HiroPro @Sloosh: The point is not that he voted GF, but that he voted GF while saying that he preferred framer over roleblocker (and changed his vote from roleblocker not to framer, but to GF). Defending zephirdd: On June 02 2012 10:38 Sbrubbles wrote: Of talis' case on Zephirdd, I just didn't see it. First and third parts are just Zephirdd attacking using meta-accusations (which 9 times out of 10 I ignore) and second part was pressuring you (who I also wanted to pressure). He was attacking everyone, but at least it looked like he was trying to get the ball rolling. + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 13:01 talismania wrote: If both truly are red herrings, they're likely good things for scum to try and latch onto and drive momentum towards. With that in mind, consider zepphird: First he kind of fishes around on Radfield: Then he drives the HiroPro story a bit: Then, after no one else is jumping on Radfield, he jumps off and hints at looking at Kurumi (who made the Radfield case): There's almost too much of it to be true but on first blow, to me, it is indicative of scum trying to get a feel for the way winds are blowing in the town, hence the FoS. On June 02 2012 08:09 Toadesstern wrote: Ok we need to get people in here. It's 1 am for me and I don't know how long I'll be awake. A zephird lynch still looks awful for me. Hiros voting him, risk is voting him, navillus is voting him. There's bound to be a mafia within those 3 and Kurumi and talis are nulls for me. That's really not as convincing as people make it look and we have 3 hours left... On toad and risk.nuke: On June 04 2012 10:53 Zephirdd wrote: Hey guys I'm back. skimmed through the thread but I grasped the idea. First of all, I love Toad's AtE. I used that on Sleeper Cell II and we ended up in a draw(when it should have been an obvious scum win T_T). AtE = Appeal to Emotion Different games are different; If Radfield finds reasons to push Toadesstern every game, he is right to push Toadesstern every game. However I disagree on the "scumslip": Saying "see you on day2" isn't indicative of alignment at all in my opinion. It's not a slip, it's not "knowing you will live". It's just saying it. However, other points still stand: Toadesstern's cases aren't good. They fit the scumagenda. Saying HiroPro had "basically claimed mafia", the wbg case, etc. I don't think Toad is the right lynch target right now though. Have you guys seen risk.nuke? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340727&user=76576 ^his amazing filter. 1. Read it(it's short guys, you probably would read it faster than you could read Radfield's case on prplhz) 2. Search for anything that makes sense from a town perspective 3. Laugh at it 4. Vote him In case it's not obvious, what you find in this filter is blatant sheeping, lack of substance and terrible logic for pushing a mislynch(which would be my lynch). Besides, his lack of activity is gigantic; Not only that, but he is not showing his overconfidence of his town self. I mean, he usually just does whatever the f* he wants, throws accusations at people and show confidence. Here he is sheeping people and pointing fingers at everyone(look at his hiro/sloosh/zephirdd post). Lynch risk! On June 04 2012 20:25 Sbrubbles wrote: Hey guys, I'm here. Weekend was a bit crazy for me. Lemme comment on the current topics: On prplhz's case, I dissagree that his argument, on making sure mafia knew they were getting roleblocker so that we'd be sure of what they have, was scummy. I still think it is wrong, but I saw merit in Rad's case for it. Prplhz posting D1 (pre-Nav switch) was null to me (he pressured wbg based on meta and voted for me without much of an argument). Not the best way to conduct discussion by far, but it didn't feel like he was actively trying to mislead. I do think his Nav switch was funky though. His argument boils down to "I want a lynch. I didn't want to before because the last game he lurked, came back saying he was sorry and was town. Now he doesn't look like he's sorry". + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2012 09:02 prplhz wrote: Blues always say stuff like "It's really not a good idea to lynch me." and "Trust me on this one." and "Town shouldn't lynch me." I don't know how I manage to miss it all the time. I'm most likely joining a Navilus lynch because I want a lynch Before, he was just being afk and his day0 actions didn't look too different from everybody else. I played with him before when he was town and afk, and when he came back he was really sorry about it (and wrote a huge post explaining exactly why he was afk). He doesn't look remorseful at all here, that post looks like he wants any sort of heat off of him and hopes that I'll just keep defending him 'cause that's what I did before. Well I'm not gonna. I'm not all convinced about this but it's the best we can realistically achieve today I think. ##Unvote Sbrubbles ##Vote Navilus Thinking on Toad, I agree with most of Rad's case. It was strange him suddenly calling wbg scum D1 (without an explanation, after treating him as null) and that it was odd for him to be focusing so much on the fact that prplhz defended Nav. I don't see "see you D2" as a scumslip. Right now I'm leaning more scum on Toad than on prplhz, but, that said, I think risk.nuke is our best lynch for today: 1) His D1 is comprised of accusing a total of 4 people, without explanations, + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote: I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie. On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 02:54 risk.nuke wrote: Dearest Kurumi, I am Mr. Lovett. lets make some Radpie. 2) Followed by him pushing Zeph during N1. This smells of a scum push because 1) his reasons aren't clear (he poses the Zeph lynch as both an information lynch and a scum lynch) and 2) uses the mafia kill, which is a minefield of wifom, as his primary argument (using it as an additional argument is doable, but this is not the case), which, actually, is the only argument he chooses to discuss. + Show Spoiler + On June 03 2012 23:50 risk.nuke wrote: I think we should lynch zephirdd for two reasons. 1. It will shed light on the voteswitch. It is infact very important that we learn zephirdds aligntment or we'll just stab ourselves in the foot if he turns out to be town. 2. Wbg was for lynching 3 people. Myself, Navillus and Zephirdd (And kurumi who he might not have pushed for because he didn't think he could get him lynched). Wbg was killed which indicates that the mafia believed he was on to something. Knowing that I am town, Navillus is town that leaves Zephirdd (and Kurumi). Also, @Radfield, I mentioned he preferred framer to roleblocker, not to godfather. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
I dunno if this is against the TL rules (this is only my third game here) but I don't see the point in playing this out. What you say? You guessed it - scum resigns! GG town. Scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/2qFy6VgjSnW Why are we resigning at sort-of mylo? (1) Sbrubbles is scum. He is also the framer. He is getting lynched today and I can't get him out of it. That immediately points the finger at me or prp, and there's no way I can win that debate. (2) Sbrubbles also already resigned. You may have noticed he hasn't posted much recently. During the night, be PM'd me and apologized for his play. Apparently being scum for the first time was really stressful for him and he had a lot of anxiety because of it. He's taking a hiatus from the game to sort that out. Hope you feel better bud! (3) My last chance is gone. I had hoped to do the following: -Fakeclaim tracker before the innocent child came out. -Force the real tracker to counterclaim -Pray to god that the real tracker was kurumi, because he's the only one I had the chance of beating 1 on 1 -Get the mislynch and win the voting race the next day However, sloosh screwed that up by coming out so quickly and putting the kibosh on the real tracker coming out. At that point it made no sense for me to come to the thread. As you can see if you read the scum qt, I toyed with many variants of this idea but could find few that would work, and none exist in this reality! (4) I'm going to MLG this weekend >_> ____________________________ My thoughts on the mistakes in the game: Scum missteps: (1) The hiropro push. It just didn't feel right to me. It was too opportunistic. (2) Sbrubbles being new. It happens, but he didn't know how to gain towncred. (3) Real or not, the "scumslip" Town missteps: (1) Risk.nuke. lol. ________________ General strategy thoughts: There's three ways to win this game as scum. With all three players alive (end of D3), with two players alive (end D4), or with one player alive (end D5). Our problem as a scumteam in general was not realizing this soon and enough and planning accordingly. While I had an inkling that this setup could not be won without bussing in some regard, I didn't fully realize the importance of that tactic until the game began to progress. By that point, we had already settled into a de facto "win with three" condition. It would be much stronger to try for a win with two and have two of the scum bus the third hard, leading the charge, and do so early (maybe D1 - certainly by D2). Town cred is everything in a setup this small, and the kind of incremental town cred I had this game could not make up for the immense town cred players like prp, hiro, and radfield achieved. Our rolepicks were fine. Tracker and innocent child aren't particularly great for town, particulary since we defaulted into a 3 player wincon. I think vigilante + tracker would be a great combo as well for scum trying to go for a 2 player wincon. If only I had thought that through beforehand :-( _________________ Thoughts on kills and lynches: D1 - Navilus. This was a bad lynch for us for one reason only: he was a roleblocker voter. He would have been very useful to me if he were still in the game now, for instance, because I'm positive I can easily make myself look townier than he could. We should have lynched zephirdd, but curious circumstances intervened. Even if I were town this game I would have wanted to lynch zephirdd (though sbrubbles would have been a close second). N1 - WBG. Killed for no other reason other than that toad thought he was the most dangerous of the framer voters. I initially wanted to kill sloosh (if only...) because I thought he was playing the strongest at the time, but backed off because of concerns that might implicate sbrubbles too much (and sbrubbles was already under some scrutiny). D2- Toad. Radfield nailed his ass to the wall. I saw this coming a mile away and immediately began putting in as much distance as I could. Sidenote: I really don't think the timing of my vote was that bad. I would have done the same as town. I waited like five minutes for prp to actually place the hammer and he didn't. N2 - Radfield. An obvious choice. I considered letting him live with dreams of an epic endgame in my mind but then reality slapped me in the face. D3 - risk.nuke. Not much to say about this one haha. You all sheeped radfield hard, but not for terrible reason. If I were town this game I would not have gone along with this so willingly, as risk.nuke's behavior made no sense if he was partnered with toad. N3 - I killed zephirdd because I knew I was going to call zephirdd out in my night post, and I was planning on the whole fake tracker thing anyway. I wanted another thing to say when the debate was going on "Why would I kill zephirdd when I was pushing him?" especially if it was me vs kurumi, of whom zephirdd had stated suspicions. -------------------------- Player comments: Toad - I'm sorry it ended like it did for you. The hiropro thing was a mistake, and the scumslip even though you actually meant it how you explained it was just plain unfortunate. You played pretty ok I thought until Radfield did his thing. Sbrubbles - it was your first scum game! I hope you recover from the anxiety of being suspected and all that. Feel better. It is just a game on the internet. me - I played pretty well for a while until the walls started closing in. I'm proud of the fact that no one publicly suspected me at all until it became clear at the end. Fooling Radfield gained me a lot of breathing room, for instance. That said, most of this pride is probably misplaced in that no one here has played with me that much and knows that I'm actually good. For future refernce: when I'm scum, I appear pro-town. When I'm town, I appear REALLY pro-town. I can't remember the last time I got mislynched. radfield - town mvp, obviously. You were all over the place and flat-out wrong on me and sbrubbles. But you got toad right, and with toad gone, the whole game was blown wide open. sloosh - you were the townie boyscout, as I called you. I only wish I had stuck to my gut and pushed to kill you N1. Toad didn't view you as that dangerous but it was clear to me you were putting in a lot of positive effort. hiropro - I don't know who the real tracker is but I guess it's you? You were playing hard as well, with a lot of good engagement. Well done. prplhz - you played strangely but, in the end, effectively. Having toad push for your lynch was the best thing that happened to you. zephirdd - you did things so blatantly scummy a scum player would never do them. I tried getting you lynched for it and it should have worked if Radfield hadn't mistakenly seen your "blueclaim". Sidenote on the blueclaim - if you read the scum QT, I caught it as well and we were all convinced you were blue too. Then radfield had to go and see it and call off the lynch :-( kurumi - Kurumi kurumi. you (or should I write You with a capital y?) were the only one who knew me well enough to know that I could have been playing better. It took you long enough to think of it, but as soon as I saw your "ah fuck" post followed by the encrypted message, I knew I was done in for. Well done. WBG - eh you weren't playing that hard. we should have let you live. navilus - poor guy. I really wish we hadn't lynched you. __________________ Finally, thanks to our wonderful hosts for the game. I loved the flavor, and the quirky debates over what majority actually was. The win condition in this game would have been funky though - for instance, if there was a mislynch today it actually wouldn't be game over. It would be 2-2 going into the next day, and if the two townies got their votes in on a mafia first, then actually town would have a chance (they'd have to do the same thing the next day) because of how the tiebreaker rules are written. Fortunately it won't come to that. I apologize if we didn't give you as interesting a game as you might have hoped! | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 09 2012 21:50 Radfield wrote: [...] I thought Talismania was town based mainly on the fact that the encryption idea was his. However I had a note down that while he came up with the idea, he did not appear to fully realize it's potency in that mafia could get caught lying and give us a list-check(which we ended up getting). I should have made a bigger deal out of that, as that is a very scum thing to do; pushing a plan, but not for the right reasons. It's similar to Toad pushing prplhz for the wrong reasons, and is a common mafia trait(because it's hard to see things from a mafia point of view). [...] Actually, I thought it was pretty obvious that was the reason for doing it. I left it unsaid but I probably would have made the exact same post as town. I wanted to clarify later, but then sbrubbles did it and I figured there was no point after that. The real reason you should have thought I was scum is that there's an even more potent usage for encryption that I didn't reveal :-) | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 09 2012 20:35 Toadesstern wrote: I did that man. Just look at how risk got lynched. That was on purpose :3 About our game: I think we all did somewhat good but we really lacked teamplay. Everyone did what he thought was best without asking the rest first and we really needed irc When Rad did his case talis bussed me instantly saying the game is over althouth I had 3 townies saying they're not willing to vote me (when majority is 5 having 3 townies + 3 mafias on your side is quite a thing). With Talis help I could have survived easily imo. OR we should have bussed me all together making both talis and sbrubbles look good but that way with everyone doing something different we just ended up in a horrible position. Sad thing sbrubbles apparently had some problems of his own and had to quit which left talis alone vs the rest With proper teamplay this game could have gone either way but I was to lazy to set up an irc channel :p The problem toad is that if I didn't bus you, what would have happened D3? We would have all been at mylo, sure, but who do we get mislynched? Prp? Zephirdd? It would have been an uphill struggle. Then again it might have been a better chance that what ended up happening. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
My reasoning for going ahead and pushing the encryption was that I assumed it would gain me town cred but also not hurt us. If the vote was split, we'd have to split our votes anyway (encryption or not) and I figured that town would settle on one dominant role, which would make the votes meaningless. So kurumi's push of framer really hurt. I thought that radfield's roleblocker push should have won out, and in hindsight I wish I had acted along toad's lines and really pushed for roleblocker. It is weaker than framer IMO. | ||
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