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Pick Your Poison Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 28 2012 19:36 GMT
#16
/in plz!
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 30 2012 12:39 GMT
#80
Mornin guys.

I think there's a pretty good advantage in not consolidating votes for the mafia powers. If they're not sure what they'll get, they'll be forced to hedge their bets by giving us one roleblockable role and one information role. Discussing the mafia roles is only good if we can reach a conclusion of which one is best to give them in all cincumstances and I don't think that is the case.

Poisons are relatively straightforward:

-Lynch locks once majority is reached -> not really dangerous at any point, but as Toad pointed out, it would be useful to avoid getting a no-lynch on d1
-Voting is done using a secret ballot -> perfectly fine when only 1 mafia is left or we're at lylo
-The mafia team recieves a secret hidden vote -> not a problem early on
-The lynch is replaced with a mayoral election who decides the days lynch -> days 2 or 3 (this one shouldn't be a problem at all, actually, as long as we force the mayor to lynch according to a town vote)
-The role and alignment for the lynch are hidden -> ok for lylo, though it might be a bitch if we still haven't killed the mafia PR
-Majority + 1 is required for a sucessful lynch -> not a problem early on
-The day cycle is shortened to 24 hours -> this is actually somewhat of a boon later on, when the discussion tends to slow down.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 30 2012 12:41 GMT
#82
Also, if we force them to give us one roleblockable role and one information role, after we tally our votes, one of our PRs will be 100% sure of his accuracy.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 30 2012 13:39 GMT
#93
On May 30 2012 22:01 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 21:56 Zephirdd wrote:
On May 30 2012 21:54 Radfield wrote:
On May 30 2012 21:51 Zephirdd wrote:
IMO secret ballot shouldn't be used. Too much confusion if I understood it right.

Also, scratch the last encrypted code.
+ Show Spoiler [what I picked] +
?b64xF1yM2Qy++9qlohfAHP+g6g4nA5rLPIXvQn02yFKhlP1oswI+B5HmNw3lsK+
KGjOakHLoluNDfPdwJr/5SCNaPlvWY0KLbBASU3hwAarQWXqXoOpMxJ4iOha1wdA
ma7znGXACp71St85QQ94UsZElCjJzs6tgTzXhAn15x0jtcruTYHQMGjgr5PTTkhy
w5uy?64b


I don't see anyone doing that yet, and I'm sad please post, encrypted, the role you picked for mafia(try to encrypt a phrase like "I picked *** because YYY" so it's hard to reverse-crack it). After this phase we de-crack our codes and verify the role we made mafia pick.



I see no need to encrypt our roles, I honestly don't understand the need for it at all. No townie is going to lie tomorrow about what role he sent in today, and mafia is going to lie regardless of whether they encrypt or not. So why are we encrypting??


So mafia can't be 100% sure of and can't 100% send roles to counterpick ours. For instance, they may end up picking Tracker when we pick Roleblocker, which is great for us.

That's what I got from it, at least. Ahh whatever.



when we ask everyone tomorrow what they sent in(without encrypting today), all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. If we encrypt are roles today, all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. Encrypting does nothing.

Regardless, It doesn't matter if mafia know they are getting roleblocker, as they still have to give us the roles we want. There is no advantage to mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker.


Having them know for sure they're gonna get roleblocker means they can get whatever combination of town roles they want. Tracker/Vig/Medic and even cop can get messed up. Also, giving them the roleblocker means they can give us Tracker/Medic without fear of the tracker claiming (I think this is the most likely scenario). I'm not saying it's a bad idea to give them the roleblocker, I just think keeping them in the dark is better.

We'll know what role they got by tallying up our votes afterwards. If mafia chooses to mess us up by lying in a way that changes the results, we'll have a huge advantage afterwards if we manage to flip their PR. Think of this example:

GF x Framer x Roleblocker
Tally:
6 x 2 x 4

"Real" Tally:
3 x 2 x 4

If we flip their roleblocker or if someone is roleblocked, we'll know with 100% certainty that the 4 who voted for roleblocker are confirmed town. We won't be sure about the people who voted for framer because 4 x 1 x 4 is also an option, but the 4 confirmed townies is plenty of an advantage (note I'm not taking into account votes from confirmed townies votes, which would make figuring out who's lying easier). Anyway, my point is that mafia will probably not try to mess up the results of the voting, but if they do so it will be a huge risk for them.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 30 2012 15:33 GMT
#100
On May 30 2012 23:16 prplhz wrote:
@Sbrubbles You say it yourself, it's a huge risk for them to try to rig anything so they're not going to do it.

It's very important for town that we know what role we give them today to eliminate any sort of confusion. If we don't know what role we give them, then they can just argue as if they had any role, and town will just argue along with them. While it's very hard, I think it's very very important that we get a majority+3 on their role so we are absolutely sure what they got. This is even more important than what they end up getting.

Tracker/Medic/Roleblocker combination sounds pretty good to me. What do you mean "without fear of the tracker caliming"?



@Radfield What do you mean "scum are going to lie about their votes anyway"?


My point is there are be one of two possibilities, if we don't consolidate votes:
1) Mafia doesn't mess up with our vote tally
2) Mafia messes up with our vote tally
I assume they'll do 1, since I believe 2) is worse for them anyway. If we assumed wrong, we'll probably have wasted a PR, BUT we'll be able to deduce either the liars or who is telling the truth through the tally (I think my example is a reasonable one). And, of course, there's the intrinsic advantage of mafia not knowing what they're gonna get until they've already picked our roles.

On May 30 2012 23:44 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 23:18 risk.nuke wrote:
Just a thought, if scum votes anything but 1-1-1 in a secret vote it opens up the posssibility for them to get busted for lying.

I don't understand this. How does that open up the possibility for them to get busted for lying?


Mafia voting 1-1-1 is the only way for them to not mess up our vote tally (in other words, do option 1) and not get busted for lying.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 30 2012 21:25 GMT
#136
Why are people voting for majority+1? D1 is already hard enough to get a lynch on. I'd much rather leave it for D2, when at least we'll have a bit more consolidated reads. Mafia vote +1 is at its weakest right now, so it's the best pick for D1 in my opinion.

I'll be gone for the next 3 hours but I'll be back for the deadline.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 31 2012 01:40 GMT
#162
Just got home. Submitting my vote.

+ Show Spoiler +
##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
ZZZZZ IPHWF FSQHH BENQR FAGOR TWQRU VVGEA AKBXJ AHMXV MWCLU FNKAH
RSLKI WMGUJ QTOUP CUDJQ CMXJB NWJSP SEMTU DQAGN EEJGB UZZZZ YYYYY
##### End encrypted message
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 31 2012 12:37 GMT
#174
Bluelightz, you have some pretty serious sanity issues.

My key is Sbrubbles. I voted for Framer.
+ Show Spoiler +
##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
ZZZZZ IPHWF FSQHH BENQR FAGOR TWQRU VVGEA AKBXJ AHMXV MWCLU FNKAH
RSLKI WMGUJ QTOUP CUDJQ CMXJB NWJSP SEMTU DQAGN EEJGB UZZZZ YYYYY
##### End encrypted message


We should tally up our votes. As I said, mafia would have to be very balsy to try to mess up our voting, even without the previous encryption.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 31 2012 12:56 GMT
#176
The mafia already know the voting results, fyi.

On May 29 2012 03:32 kitaman27 wrote:
The game will begin with a 24 hour selection phase. During this phase, the mafia team will select two roles for town. Additionally, the town will privately vote via PM on a single role for the mafia. If there is a tie, a random role from the tied roles will be selected. The selected roles will not be revealed, however the mafia team will be provided with the voting results.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 31 2012 19:32 GMT
#205
On June 01 2012 04:02 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote:
On June 01 2012 03:54 HiroPro wrote:
Because I felt that it's the weakest role, as it's only really effective against tracker (since gf can send kills himself). GF is immune to cop, but it doesn't protect the other members of the team and it can't introduce false positives. And since cop in this setup only has 1 shot, they will most likely be using it on someone who feel has a strong chance of being scum and a positive result is pretty much a confirmation then without framer. And of course it does nothing to any of the other roles.


Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this?



Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 11:52 HiroPro wrote:
All of the mafia roles are "anti-blue" roles and pretty useless otherwise. Now out of the three mafia roles, roleblocker looks to be the most powerful to me, as it is effective against all of the blue roles (except for innocent child, against which nothing is really good). Yes, the shots get refunded for vig and cop but in a game of this size, if you get roleblocked it's likely you won't even live the next night. For that reason, I think everyone should only vote for either godfather or framer and should not consider roleblocker.

Also, I don't think anyone should share exactly what role they are voting for, as mafia can than pick the blue roles that are worst against that role. So instead, when discussing what role to give mafia, I think everyone should just say the role that they don't want people to vote for (as it's too strong), still leaving open the possibility of two roles that they might choose between.


A lot of mafia's power in this setup comes from them being able to pick roles for town that are easily countered by the role they receive. If they don't know exactly what role they are getting, they can't do this.


I'm not buying this, Hiro. It was pretty clear from the thread that it was a discussion between framer and roleblocker. If you thought it was better to give mafia the framer, instead of roleblocker, why would you vote for the 3rd option? Also, why did/what made you change your mind about about your vote partway through D0?
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
May 31 2012 20:13 GMT
#214
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 04:25 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 04:18 Kurumi wrote:
On June 01 2012 04:15 prplhz wrote:
@Kurumi The difference is that roleblocker only works if he actually hits a blue, framer works regardless of whether he hits a blue. If we get a tracker check, then we're going to argue about it now because there are people who will say "he was framed". Before, we could just trust it if we trusted the guy it came from and he wouldn't claim if he wasn't willing to put his life on the line anyway.

Radfield explained why medic is a good role, not only can he save townies, he will also discourage scum from shooting into townies that the medic might protect and one successful protect would extend the game by a full day which is awesome. Vigilante is a role that can pretty much confirm itself just be breadcrumbing his shot before he shoots and that's really good too, especially if he actually hits scum.

You need to calm down and take deep breath. Roleblocker isn't a horrible role, it's actually the best role. Even if it was horrible then why on earth would Radfield put himself out there like that to push scum agenda like you claim he is doing.

What do you think about wherebugsgo, Navilus and risk.nuke?

No. Framer does not work. It has a slim chance of working. Framer is a useless role. Try predicting the dt/tracker check. Have fun.
Roleblocker on the other hand, if You get two blue reads off You can rb one guy and kill the other. Win win.

So you are saying that we can trust all checks even with framer around because it only has a slim chance of working? Framer is a role that works even when they don't use it successfully, just like medic.

Your second argument "if they get two blue reads in a day" then they can neutralize them both with roleblocker. What are the odds of them getting two correct bluereads in one day? Even if they did, without roleblocker they could just kill one and then kill the other.


Tracker, in my opinion, is the weakest town role overall (worse than 1-shot cop), but it's worse, not better, against a roleblocker than against a framer around. Framer is very unlikely to mess up a tracker early on (though yeah, it's possible), but if a roleblocker is around mafia have the option of discrediting the tracker by leaving him alive and roleblocking him (if he didn't manage to convince town of his check). He'll be still alive but roleblocked, which means chaos for the following day. Also, remember that framer is only 2 shot.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 19:02 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote:
errr there is more to say, actually. First,
On May 30 2012 20:16 Zephirdd wrote:
##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
?b644rKEia/eqd8/fjaSJjh8ft+Ga2gbCDQcJnm8znA4gWzcXOVmbpSKHpLLxCLj
ZCIAhqK1EmupAZoQfMKGr/kI1rDlO2chS6Vn8sr52uJtCPk=?64b
##### End encrypted message

I'll release the key after the deadline. This is the role I voted for mafia.

I suggest that everyone do this, so we know which role mafia has after the deadline.


The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's.

Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say.

Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes.

Discuss.



Then you don't know me very well Zephridd I skim read all the time, and I do mean all the time. The strength of my play is that I go back and reread many times, and filter everyone many times. Knowing when you can skim and when you need to pay attention is something every good player utilizes, particularly when time is short. Yesterday I had points I wanted to make, and not enough time to do it in(particularly in the morning, when I didn't even finish my post).

I obviously picked roleblocker.

Anyways, the reason we publicly wanted roleblocker is that we desperately want a medic in this setup, and mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker dramatically increases the odds of us getting one. Consider that pretty much every single mini game ever has the potential for town to have a medic/jailkeeper/etc, the reason for this being that even the threat of having a protective role means mafia can't just shoot whomever they want, whenever they want.

You guys are talking as if mafia having the roleblocker is dangerous because they can roleblock any blue claims, but that makes no sense. If we have no medic, mafia don't need to roleblock, they just shoot claimers in the face. If there is no medic in the setup, then roleblocker is an almost completely useless role for mafia. Think someone is blue? Shoot them in the face. Someone claims? Shoot them in the face.

The reason that we have a much better chance of getting a medic by choosing roleblocker is that cop and tracker are far and away the worst roles for town in this setup, especially considering that mafia might get gf/framer. Tracker is especially bad, because of the fact that mafia get to choose which one performs the kill, and will always pick whomever is the most town, making the role almost useless unless the tracker holds his abilities until lategame. By picking roleblocker and mafia knowing it, they will likely shy away from giving us the information roles, and instead give us 2 of Vig/Medic/IC. However even if they give us one of those roles and the tracker, the one role they will probably give us is the medic, as I don't think most people realize how important it is to have a medic in a small setup.

Again, having a medic is very important for us, because a medic doesn't even have to make a save and can still turn the tide of a game by forcing mafia to shoot away from the most obvious/strong townies. Picking roleblocker gave us the highest chance of getting that medic.

Did players who became power roles KNOW they were going to be power roles before day 1? Or were they given the exact same vanilla PM as all the other players


@Radfield, I was thinking about this before my vote. If they knew we were going to get medic, they'd want a roleblocker (to prevent town going into follow-the-confirmed-townie mode), but it doesn't necessarily work the other way around. Them knowing the we picked roleblocker doesn't make it that they'd give us a medic. Tracker/vig or tracker/cop are perfectly reasonable combinations. A Roleblocker is essencially a second "blue snipe" for them, because they'll have a really good idea of if they got their block right. This about this: If cop doesn't claim day 2 they'll know they got their N1 block right. If a tracker claims but isn't convincing, they can do as I said above. If they gave us vig, then 1 kill in the night means they blocked correctly and would eliminate the vig the following night.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 01 2012 12:09 GMT
#238
On June 01 2012 10:07 slOosh wrote:
Gahhh!!! Please post people! From the looks of it we are just going to scramble to get a lurker lynch hours before the deadline.

Kurumi - thoughts on anything besides Radfield?

Sbrubbles - thoughts on Kurumi / Radfield?

risk.nuke & Navillus - please post something. thoughts on each other, Kurumi and Sbrubbles?


Kurumi's case on Radfield is based on the assumption that roleblocker is hand-down the worst role to give mafia. Though I partially agree with him (I voted for framer), I don't agree it's an obvious thing. The way Rad argue it was decent and well-reasoned.

The case on Kurumi is partly based on his meta and I don't trust cases built solely on meta. What is interesting is that he makes his whole argument with basis on game mechanics (better yet, his opinions on game mechanics), which would be the "safest" way for mafia to be pushing for a mislynch at D1. It feels a bit scummy, but I'm still mostly null on him.

I'm very suspicious of HiroPro right now. His GF vote doesn't make sense to me from a town perspective and I'm not convinced on his Zephirdd push.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 01 2012 12:10 GMT
#239
EBWOP: First line, second paragraph should read: The case on Kurumi is partly based on his meta and I don't trust cases built on meta.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 01 2012 20:52 GMT
#267
I'm home and reading over the thread right now. Will post my thoughts as soon as I'm done.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 01 2012 22:00 GMT
#293
First of all, one thing we've got to remember is that we can only afford 1 NL, and it's better that we use it up later and not sooner. If worse comes to worse, with no NL and no doc saves, we may reach a day 5 mylo, which should be NL followed by lylo day 6 (with the plus side that we can pick and waste whatever poison we want day 5, since it will be NL).

Lynching Nautillus would be going for a lurker lynch and I don't think we have to resort to that yet. Also, between lurkers, I'd rather lynch risk.nuke, whose only contribution was to throw dirt and dissapear without any explanation:

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote:
I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie.
On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird.


Hiro simply hasn't posted anything since back then. His behaviour was reasonably active on D0, so I don't buy that it wasn't clear to him "that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker". His case on Zephirdd was that Zephirdd hadn't contributed to the discussion, though Zephirdd was asking questions, like Sloosh was doing, which is a reasonable way to get discussion going early on. Hiro's filter before that case, though, consisted of just as little discussion, except for mechanics talk, which mafia can also do. He is playing scummy and we should lynch him today.

##Vote: HiroPro

@Sloosh: The point is not that he voted GF, but that he voted GF while saying that he preferred framer over roleblocker (and changed his vote from roleblocker not to framer, but to GF).
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 01 2012 22:58 GMT
#310
Vote count:

Zephirdd: 5
Hiro
talis
Kurumi
risk.nuke
Navillus

Hiro: 3
Toad
Zephirdd
Sbrubbles

Navillus: 1
wherebugsgo

prphlz, Rad and Sloosh still to vote

If a Hiro lynch isn't possible, I'd settle for lynching risk.nuke. He had been lurking until a few minutes ago and now parked his vote, without explanation, on a rolling bandwagon.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 02 2012 00:12 GMT
#332
On June 02 2012 09:02 slOosh wrote:
Toad since you are here can you flesh out the GF explanation?
Show nested quote +
On June 02 2012 06:52 slOosh wrote:
Why is Hiro voting GF an exclusively scummy thing to do and not something that a townie would do?

This is also my beef with Sbrubbles. If it was so obvious that it would be a vote split between RB and framer, then mafia would understand that there is no need to vote 1-1-1 because the whole point you vote 1-1-1 is to slip by lie detection, not to confuse town what role mafia has. Hiro voted GF. You are claiming that he is one of mafia who still chose to vote 1-1-1 knowing that RB and framer are the only plausible roles that they will get.

So why are you calling Hiro scum by saying that the situation would make a good scum play and therefore he must be scum?

I want to vote Sbrubbles for the same reason, as well as how much resistance its been facing. Seriously like 2 or 3 times people just avert discussion away from that dude.


My problem isn't with him voting GF per se. It's this:

1) Votes for RB:

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 01:54 HiroPro wrote:
I see what Toad and Radfield are saying about roleblocker. While I don't really feel that medic/vig against roleblocker is really much of an advantage for us, I can see the chaos that gf/framer can cause (There's no way we're getting innocent child). But I still think doing the encryption is a good idea. It can't hurt.


Show nested quote +

I'm pretty sure HiroPro is right in that we only have to use five poisons (12 10 8 6 4 assuming there's only one scum left by the end and no vig shots or medic blocks or no lynches). So let's not get carried away thinking we have to use majority +1 AND secret mafia vote when we can just use majority +1 and never bother with the secret mafia vote.


I'd prefer to be on the safe side and allocate six poisons. I don't want us to get in trouble just because we get a medic save. "Secret mafia vote" just isn't that dangerous; we can use that and "majority+1" day1/day2 (when those poisons are the weakest).



http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html

Encrypted Text: ZZZZZ IKQND HLAHA GFAXM GRHFX WHJBP HVVJW QKGDM FLUER ECNNB DMNAN
WUNJC IHLRU XHVXV AEKGV IHMJV XJAXL SCIPV EPLGD QQDLM PHKLT DXUIA
WUGKM VQIAP WMXFD DQCOJ BUMZZ YYYYY



2) Changes vote to GF, despite prefering Framer to Roleblocker:

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 08:15 HiroPro wrote:
And a new encrypted role:

[spoiler]
ZZZZZ GJNLL IRXGM PUBSF MPAHF NLNXV TBBGF JGJHL SJSPW RWJUT SNNDC
RCRGK ELJIK LROXB JVKHT FMJFW LIPWW IRBVP CQAJJ SUJCO PGQXN WRCCC
WVCEW AVUWJ WBMKE XCVHH EIIZZ YYYYY
[/spoiler]



+ Show Spoiler +
[B]On June 01 2012 05:03 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 04:32 Sbrubbles wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

On June 01 2012 04:02 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote:
On June 01 2012 03:54 HiroPro wrote:
Because I felt that it's the weakest role, as it's only really effective against tracker (since gf can send kills himself). GF is immune to cop, but it doesn't protect the other members of the team and it can't introduce false positives. And since cop in this setup only has 1 shot, they will most likely be using it on someone who feel has a strong chance of being scum and a positive result is pretty much a confirmation then without framer. And of course it does nothing to any of the other roles.


Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this?



Show nested quote +
On May 30 2012 11:52 HiroPro wrote:
All of the mafia roles are "anti-blue" roles and pretty useless otherwise. Now out of the three mafia roles, roleblocker looks to be the most powerful to me, as it is effective against all of the blue roles (except for innocent child, against which nothing is really good). Yes, the shots get refunded for vig and cop but in a game of this size, if you get roleblocked it's likely you won't even live the next night. For that reason, I think everyone should only vote for either godfather or framer and should not consider roleblocker.

Also, I don't think anyone should share exactly what role they are voting for, as mafia can than pick the blue roles that are worst against that role. So instead, when discussing what role to give mafia, I think everyone should just say the role that they don't want people to vote for (as it's too strong), still leaving open the possibility of two roles that they might choose between.


A lot of mafia's power in this setup comes from them being able to pick roles for town that are easily countered by the role they receive. If they don't know exactly what role they are getting, they can't do this.


I'm not buying this, Hiro. It was pretty clear from the thread that it was a discussion between framer and roleblocker. If you thought it was better to give mafia the framer, instead of roleblocker, why would you vote for the 3rd option? Also, why did/what made you change your mind about about your vote partway through D0?


Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 04:39 Toadesstern wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

On June 01 2012 03:36 HiroPro wrote:
Key: KWUIR-KMBIV-QPGAY-CZTNK-BZSVT-ERHIS-YFULP-ZUYOK-GOKYP-TLBON-PIDIC-AAFXW

Choose Godfather, I did.


Show nested quote +
On May 31 2012 21:56 Sbrubbles wrote:
The mafia already know the voting results, fyi.

On May 29 2012 03:32 kitaman27 wrote:
The game will begin with a 24 hour selection phase. During this phase, the mafia team will select two roles for town. Additionally, the town will privately vote via PM on a single role for the mafia. If there is a tie, a random role from the tied roles will be selected. The selected roles will not be revealed, however the mafia team will be provided with the voting results.


Meh, I guess the encryption wasn't really that useful then. I thought it'd make it so that mafia have to guess on what votes to fake.


Kurumi: So what I get from your Radfield case is that you think he is scum because he tells everyone to pick Roleblocker even though it's a good role for scum? But I don't really follow that; while I think roleblocker is a strong role for mafia also, Radfield's argument was not bad. And I don't see this contradiction that you are talking about.


That's got to be a joke. Godfather? Why?!?! It was clear the decision would be either RB or framer at some point and you chose to pick Godfather and completly wasted your vote?
Someone explained (I think risk?) d0 that the only solution to not screw up as mafia is to pick 1-1-1. 1 guy votes RB, one guy votes framer, one guy picks GF because that way they add 1 to each thing and don't change a thing.

So wtf?


Maybe it was clear to you that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker. It wasn't to me; not when the majority of people had not said what they were going to vote for. After Radfield made his argument on why Roleblocker was the best choice, I voted for roleblocker as I felt that Radfield made a good point on town gaining an advantage from knowing exactly what role mafia would get. I realized a little later though, that mafia would derive the exact same benefit if I followed Radfield's plan, so I changed my vote to the role that was worst for mafia in my opinion (godfather).

Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 02 2012 00:30 GMT
#339
Bah ... I'm not sure anymore. Bugs/Toad/prlhz, why Navillus over risk.nuke?
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 02 2012 01:24 GMT
#352
I'm switching my vote to guarantee the Navillus lynch.

##Unvote: HiroPro
##Vote: Navillus
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 02 2012 01:38 GMT
#354
On June 02 2012 10:24 HiroPro wrote:
Navillus: I think most of the points that Radfield talks about in his case on Navillus are correct. Navillus did not contribute much during the setup phase and he has barely said anything on day 1. In the post where he votes, Navillus's behavior is really strange. He votes for Zephirdd but yet at the same time expresses concern that Zephirdd's behavior may be indicative of a newer player. Not only is Navillus unwilling to go through Zephirdd's profile and check out his game history, but he is also voting for someone who he seems to be personally unsure of....

Sbrubbles: If his reasons for voting for me are what he really believes (which appears true for me), then he looks town to me. He contributed thoughts of his own during setup and seemed generally straightforward and open today. I am not willing to vote for him right now.

I would like you to answer this question, though Sbrubbles. I can understand why you did not vote for Zephirdd based on my case (You think I am scum), but why is it that you completely ignored the case that talismania brought? I pointed this out before along with my feelings on the flaws in your reasoning regarding Zephirdd, but you ignored it.


If what prplhz and Radfield say regarding Zephirdd's status as a blue is correct, then he is not a good lynch for today. I will expect more from him tomorrow, though. Radfield's case on Navillus is solid - I am voting for Navillus.

Vote: Navillus


Of talis' case on Zephirdd, I just didn't see it. First and third parts are just Zephirdd attacking using meta-accusations (which 9 times out of 10 I ignore) and second part was pressuring you (who I also wanted to pressure). He was attacking everyone, but at least it looked like he was trying to get the ball rolling.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 13:01 talismania wrote:
If both truly are red herrings, they're likely good things for scum to try and latch onto and drive momentum towards. With that in mind, consider zepphird:

First he kind of fishes around on Radfield:

Show nested quote +
On May 31 2012 11:25 Zephirdd wrote:
errr there is more to say, actually. First,
On May 30 2012 20:16 Zephirdd wrote:
##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/
?b644rKEia/eqd8/fjaSJjh8ft+Ga2gbCDQcJnm8znA4gWzcXOVmbpSKHpLLxCLj
ZCIAhqK1EmupAZoQfMKGr/kI1rDlO2chS6Vn8sr52uJtCPk=?64b
##### End encrypted message

I'll release the key after the deadline. This is the role I voted for mafia.

I suggest that everyone do this, so we know which role mafia has after the deadline.


The key is "zephirdd" and when using it to decrypt, the phrase is "I picked Framer for the mafia". Kurumi's reasonings convinced me much more than Radfield's.

Also, I don't like that Radfield was initially against registering votes pre-deadline. The Rad I know doesn't just "skim" by what people say.

Still, his town meta is "too town to be town", and here is just... normal town. Or rather, near null. That makes him red in my eyes.

Discuss.



Then he drives the HiroPro story a bit:

Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 03:45 Zephirdd wrote:
Hiro, why would you pick Godfather, aka the NULL vote?



Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 03:59 Zephirdd wrote:
On June 01 2012 03:54 HiroPro wrote:
Because I felt that it's the weakest role, as it's only really effective against tracker (since gf can send kills himself). GF is immune to cop, but it doesn't protect the other members of the team and it can't introduce false positives. And since cop in this setup only has 1 shot, they will most likely be using it on someone who feel has a strong chance of being scum and a positive result is pretty much a confirmation then without framer. And of course it does nothing to any of the other roles.


Great, and why didn't you provide these arguments during the day we had to actually choose GF? Why did you just let the framers/roleblockers go and not fight for your argument? Why keep it down and suddenly pop out with this?


Then, after no one else is jumping on Radfield, he jumps off and hints at looking at Kurumi (who made the Radfield case):

Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 10:36 Zephirdd wrote:
Hm, looking at Holy Roman, Kurumi seems to be much more careful on this game(ie. serious). Like wbg said, (if we take Holy Roman as Kurumi's town meta) his town meta is to troll. Anyone has more town games from Kurumi to analyze, and possibly scum games as well?

I also retract any "accusation" I may have had about Radfield. He seems clean enough for me atm.

Why are you guys not posting more? I hate lynching lurkers.


There's almost too much of it to be true but on first blow, to me, it is indicative of scum trying to get a feel for the way winds are blowing in the town, hence the FoS.


Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 02 2012 22:01 GMT
#386
Guys, I'm putting down my vote for poison (option 1), which is fine as long as no one acts stupid. I think if we hit scum tomorrow, we can use Mayoral Lynch D3. If we mislynch, we use Majority+1 D3 (it will be mylo) and leave out Mayoral Lynch completely. Thoughts?
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Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 11:25 GMT
#520
Hey guys, I'm here. Weekend was a bit crazy for me. Lemme comment on the current topics:

On prplhz's case, I dissagree that his argument, on making sure mafia knew they were getting roleblocker so that we'd be sure of what they have, was scummy. I still think it is wrong, but I saw merit in Rad's case for it.
Prplhz posting D1 (pre-Nav switch) was null to me (he pressured wbg based on meta and voted for me without much of an argument). Not the best way to conduct discussion by far, but it didn't feel like he was actively trying to mislead.
I do think his Nav switch was funky though. His argument boils down to "I want a lynch. I didn't want to before because the last game he lurked, came back saying he was sorry and was town. Now he doesn't look like he's sorry".
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 02 2012 09:02 prplhz wrote:
Blues always say stuff like "It's really not a good idea to lynch me." and "Trust me on this one." and "Town shouldn't lynch me."

I don't know how I manage to miss it all the time.

I'm most likely joining a Navilus lynch because I want a lynch Before, he was just being afk and his day0 actions didn't look too different from everybody else. I played with him before when he was town and afk, and when he came back he was really sorry about it (and wrote a huge post explaining exactly why he was afk). He doesn't look remorseful at all here, that post looks like he wants any sort of heat off of him and hopes that I'll just keep defending him 'cause that's what I did before.

Well I'm not gonna. I'm not all convinced about this but it's the best we can realistically achieve today I think.

##Unvote Sbrubbles
##Vote Navilus


Thinking on Toad, I agree with most of Rad's case. It was strange him suddenly calling wbg scum D1 (without an explanation, after treating him as null) and that it was odd for him to be focusing so much on the fact that prplhz defended Nav. I don't see "see you D2" as a scumslip.

Right now I'm leaning more scum on Toad than on prplhz, but, that said, I think risk.nuke is our best lynch for today:

1) His D1 is comprised of accusing a total of 4 people, without explanations,
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote:
I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie.
On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 31 2012 02:54 risk.nuke wrote:
Dearest Kurumi, I am Mr. Lovett. lets make some Radpie.

2) Followed by him pushing Zeph during N1. This smells of a scum push because 1) his reasons aren't clear (he poses the Zeph lynch as both an information lynch and a scum lynch) and 2) uses the mafia kill, which is a minefield of wifom, as his primary argument (using it as an additional argument is doable, but this is not the case), which, actually, is the only argument he chooses to discuss.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 03 2012 23:50 risk.nuke wrote:
I think we should lynch zephirdd for two reasons.
1. It will shed light on the voteswitch. It is infact very important that we learn zephirdds aligntment or we'll just stab ourselves in the foot if he turns out to be town.
2. Wbg was for lynching 3 people. Myself, Navillus and Zephirdd (And kurumi who he might not have pushed for because he didn't think he could get him lynched). Wbg was killed which indicates that the mafia believed he was on to something. Knowing that I am town, Navillus is town that leaves Zephirdd (and Kurumi).


Also, @Radfield,

On June 04 2012 05:19 Radfield wrote:
Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out?


I mentioned he preferred framer to roleblocker, not to godfather.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 13:28 GMT
#524
@prplhz, who do you think we should lynch today?
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 15:02 GMT
#529
On June 04 2012 23:05 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 04 2012 22:28 Sbrubbles wrote:
@prplhz, who do you think we should lynch today?

Well, with Radfield it's almost like either we lynch him or we do what he says. I don't understand how he can say that he wouldn't be opposed to a vigilante shooting me over risk.nuke day1 because vigilantes on day1 shoot to take out trash. They don't shoot into active contributing people. It's pretty clear (and common knowledge I should think) that anybody should prefer having me around at LYLO as opposed to a guy who posted as poorly as risk.nuke. Radfield even says that he can get a clear read on risk.nuke, how can he get a clear read on somebody who is barely posting? Why can't he get a clear read on me when he's had that in the last few games we played together?

That said, I don't think Radfield looks too much like he did in LotR mafia (where he was scum) and more like he did in more recent town games (that's why I want him to post a more recent scum game so I can see if he started playing differently). I have other scum reads but I really want to talk to Radfield first even though I know I'm cutting time short here.

I also think that risk.nuke is on to something when he said that shooting wherebugsgo was about wherebugsgo's reads. If there isn't a medic then it's 100% sure that Radfield is scum 'cause there's no way in hell that scum would shoot wherebugsgo over Radfield. If there is a medic, then it's still a somewhat risky move to shoot wherebugsgo when instead they could have tried to bluesnipe (but maybe that's what they were doing I just thought right now). wherebugsgo wanted to lynch Navilus, risk.nuke, Toadesstern, and Kurumi and then he wanted to look into Navilus' middle voters; prplhz, Toadesstern, talismania, slOosh. There's something about that or else I don't see why scum would shoot wherebugsgo.


+ Show Spoiler +
prplhz is purple haze? Mind = blown


While I do agree scum would usually shoot Rad over wbg, we could have any number of explanations, including: we have a medic, wbg was right about someone, nobody was right on their strongest reads (Rad included), Rad is scum or scum shot suboptimally. I disagree that wbg was shot over his reads, because, even if he was right, he wasn't being actively pushing any one of them (and there were a lot as you pointed out). Pushing the idea that wbg was right in order to attack Zephirdd (without an actual case) is the main reason why I think risk's scum.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 22:27 GMT
#601
Woot! Gogogo Rad!
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 23:04 GMT
#607
On June 05 2012 07:56 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 07:27 Sbrubbles wrote:
Woot! Gogogo Rad!

Could we have your current thoughts on prplhz?


You could, but I'd rather wait until the end of the night.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 04 2012 23:07 GMT
#610
On June 05 2012 08:05 Radfield wrote:
or do you mean, the start of day 3?


[image loading]
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 06 2012 01:59 GMT
#630
@Sloosh, about prplhz, I still find his switch to Nav D1 scummy, but his defence from Toad was solid and with Toad flipping scum I'm pretty convinced he's town. After my initial doubts on him, I think Hiro is town. Zephirdd gives me a townish vibe as well.

risk.nuke:
I've said what I needed to say about risk in my case during D2. His posts since are just more of the same, but I wanna point this one out:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 05 2012 05:06 risk.nuke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 00:59 Radfield wrote:
On June 05 2012 00:23 risk.nuke wrote:
Lets just assume we don't have a medic instead of using that as an excuse to justify scum-kills. If any of you were scum, would you give town a medic? That's like sabotaging for yourself so can we please assume the scum did not sabotage for themself and did not give us a medic.

Radfield, since you've ignored my post. Why do you think they killed wbg?



How did I ignore your post? Which post are you even talking about, please show me.

I'm not really interested in why bugs died. He's a good enough player that him getting shot N1 is fairly irrelevant. He's also the kind of player who has weak D1 reads, and then get startlingly accurate as the game goes on(as long as he doesn't get sidetracked).

I also don't think scum realized medic was the strongest role we could have. On the surface it looks weak, as most medics miss, and it can't confirm townies or catch scum. Especially if they think they were getting roleblocker, then medic might seem like the least of the evils.


I'm against lynching toad today. I don't have a good read on him and I think he will become easier to figure out later.


Your resistance to lynching Toad is noted. Please state specifically which parts of my case you find strong or weak.

Also, who is your alternative, still Zeph based off of WBG's accusations?
Zephirdd
I'm starting to doubt my read on zeph. When I analyzed him logicaly I felt confident in my read. Today when I reread his filter I'm feeling. It feels as he is sincere. Especially his last posts. I'm starting to lean more to it's just bad play rather then scum-agenda.
Ignoring and other stuff
What I ment with ignoring was that when I said that maybe "HEY JUST MAYBE" we should consider the reads of the guy who the mafia killed and see what he was on to you said nothing. I mean the "they killed wbg because of his status as a veteran" is weaker then weak and that goes without saying. He's not a better scumhunter then average. And saying he gets better as the game progress, that goes for everyone. If your case is he gets better compared to others later in the game, that is false. If you insist on this I can get game-links. Right now your view on the scum killing wbg is they played suboptimally. That is a joke and is the number one reason I mistrust you.

Nor did they give us a medic. Not beeing able to shoot whoever they want is just setting themselves up for disadvantage. I'd guess they gave us a tracker and an innocent child. They absolutely didn't give us a vig. So did they give us 1-shot cop who confirms two townies or 1townie/1scum at any point in the game. The thing that makes an innocent child less powerfull in this setup is because with a known amounts of blues they can't counterclaim without going for a 50/50 so that make all blues powerfuller (exept child).

Lynches
As for lynches I'd like to lynch kurumi. If I can't get support for that I'm torn between lynching sloosh and sbrubbles.

Innocent Child is a stupidly good role in this setup. Why would he think there is one? And why try to divert the talk into mechanics at a time when discussion was very important to figure out the lynch?
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 06 2012 02:22 GMT
#639
Let's do this.

##Vote risk.nuke
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 07 2012 15:14 GMT
#656
On June 07 2012 14:10 HiroPro wrote:
The reason why I'm not posting it now is that it will not influence the lynch at all, but it does help mafia in their decision for the night kill.

Risk's flip does not affect my case at all, as everyone in the game has said that they want risk to be lynched.

While it is true that discussion has stalled, I don't think this will carry over at all as a mayor election will come up and the last mafia still needs to be found (assuming risk is scum).

I'll have my case and full list of reads out before the end of night.


I agree with Hiro, this works like night time.

About tomorrow's poison, we'll have a better idea once risk's actually flipped, but I think we can choose mayor lynch. I don't think it will be necessary for IC to claim because with only one mafia left, I doubt that he'll try to run for mayor, but even if he does he'll be under major scrutiny. Tracker can consider claiming (if he feels it will help with defining the mayor lynch), because the remaining scum will have no way of counter claiming (since we'd have time to kill them both).

Bleulightz, I'm confused. Majority is players/2+1 now, meaning players/2+2 because of the poison?
Bora Pain minha porra!
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
June 09 2012 22:00 GMT
#725
GG guys ... it feels weird now that it's over, but by D3 I was freaking out (not in a good way ). I really can't explain what happened. Still, it didn't matter too much because I already had messed up by then.
Playing town means you have to use practically all your energy to point your finger at people you think are scum. You've got to defend yourself at times, but even if you can't do it, at least you can hope whoever is accusing you looks scummy because of it. Playing scum feels like you always have to have a plan and an answer, and frankly I usually had neither.

Here are some thoughts, though:
I totally agree on the Toad scumslip. Bonus points because it pointed at me indirectly .
Why did town not consider a NL considering it's mylo? I know there was a really good target (me), but still.
I really think talis' encryption thing for the votes helped town out a lot, even if not everyone did it. I would have been happier if everyone went with Radfield on that one (when he said we should just claim afterwards because it wouldn't really matter).
We, as scum, could have planned out better on how to deceive town as to what role we really had. I had some ideas but in the end I chickened out (check the scum qt for that).
Rad's case on Toad was suberb in my opinion (even without the scumslip thing). I think it deserves special recognition.
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