Newbie Mini XV

On June 03 2012 07:19 Vivax wrote:
And guess who his case was: heist. -_-

On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote:
--snipped---

I'm not so sure about Heist. You haven't done much in the game so far, except when Suki had pressure on him. On the other hand, you were very active in the lynch discussion and focused on ensuring the lynch. I want to see you push an original case sooner rather than later.

Not much to say about s0Lstice, he has been active and helpful after the suboptimal start. Not likely Mafia.

All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.

I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.

On June 04 2012 20:00 Xatalos wrote:
Small correction to my previous post: then there's also Miltonkram's doubt towards me, which is an improvement over having no original opinions (with the exception of a safe lurker vote). Still, it came only after I put pressure on him, WITHOUT addressing any of my accusations. That means it's just a reactionary deflection from himself, not a genuine suspicion towards me.

ShiaoPi, I agree that my initial case on Heist wasn't that strong. However, his comment on Vivax "bussing" raised so many red flags that I focused on finding additional evidence and saw some Mafia slips that weren't actual slips. s0Lstice had a good case on him, how is it suspicious to use some of the stuff s0Lstice already mentioned? As a sidenote, I addressed the lynch situation and my actions during it a bit earlier to Miltonkram.

I don't know how this thread became so dead since Day 1. It's really hurting the discussion that a couple of active posters do all the talking, while the rest just stay silent. We need more contribution from almost everyone right now (with the exception of those who have now been active).

On June 04 2012 21:53 Vivax wrote:
@ Miltonkram:

I'm pretty sure Xatalos is townie, simply cause he adresses suki, heist and O.Golden_ne in the last part you've quoted.
I know I'm being stubborn again on my suspicions, but face it:

suki never tried to rise attention towards heist, he never adressed him directly, same goes for O.Golden_ne.
In his filter, if you search for the word heist, you will find it once in a part where he tries to make Eishi_Ki look suspicious based on heist's and O.Golden_ne's attacks on me, cause that makes Eishi_Ki looks bandwagon-y, which I thought too, frankly.
Look for O.Golden_ne, you will get to suki's first post, where he suspects sciberbia and milton, who i both read as townie.
That's it, they kept the activity between each other to a minimum, but suki pretty much adresses everyone else directly, except for the two. If that's not a safe scumtell, I don't know.

@ Xatalos

No, I didn't give up on my defense, I've already written it down, and my best defense atm is good offense/scumhunting.
If you really look at your posts and then go through mine, you will find my defense anyway, I'm just tired of repeating it over and over when people ignore points I've already made, it's a waste of time.
Also, look at suki's first post concerning miltonkram and you'll know that it's nonsense to think miltonkram might not be town.

To me, it looks like you're too focused on the last posts and making the same mistake as Ange777. There are so many early posts from a confirmed mafia which hold so much more information, yet you prefer to look in a stage where every post is hard to contextualize. This is a point I've been making the entire time, and I would bet that everyone would agree on the logic. It's choosing the safe over the unsafe method, which you are not doing since you even suspect miltonkram when suki's first post disproves him being mafia.

And ShiaoPi doesn't even consider heist being mafia, wtf? There's so much evidence, you simply ignore it to push a case against me? Also, i prefer to not go through your offensive posts. Calling someone stupid and retarded isn't a good way to make reads, but I think the host might remind you of that at some point.

My list of scum remains the same: heist, ShiaoPi

##Vote heist

On June 05 2012 01:27 Vivax wrote:
Regarding suki:
How is the reasoning odd?
Suki posted more, that's all. What made me so suspicious about Ange777 is her timing when she posted something substantial for the first time. Read on.

Ange:
Look at Ange's posts before her comeback, she even announced she would contribute and didn't do so until there was a real danger of being lynched cause town was about to lynch the most lurking person in that game.
Here she suddenly appeared, saying that we might hit blue as only inital defense, and apologized for the absence saying what kept her busy.

Then I was just pretty sure that it's mafia behavior to be silent all game and just show up when you're about to get killed, throwing accusations at three different players (me, unforgiven and suki).
I was fearing that through town's confusion it wouldn't come to a day 1 lynch, so I preferred to stick with my initial target cause I believed it was more likely to get a lynch on Ange777.

It was Xatalos who made the first vote on her, I was third after miltonkram. You are making such a big deal out of the fact that I believed that suki was town, most of the town did (except for Eishi_Ki and unforgiven and later Ange777).
She admitted having a bad impact on that game with the sudden return reading scum to me. Town was about to set the vote, and I didn't want to vote for someone I didn't believe to be mafia unless it was the only possible way to get a Day 1 lynch, which I announced from the beginning.

Then heist: Wtf, you mention what you believe without even saying what should be wrong about that scumslip, he says he doesn't believe suki to be mafia and 12 minutes later he contradicts himself by saying it looks like I'm bussing.
Also, bad redefinition, my entire response was: 'Your word choice is strange cause it contradicts your official beliefs'.
Also, you completely ignore the time of the post, i posted that before s0lstice died, but you say I use that to push after s0lstice's death.

I understand you don't have a good overview of my actions cause you just joined the game, but you should really read everything if you plan on going for such accusations of single players. You will find all kind of suspicious things about other players if you go with the premise that they are guilty and look close enough.

Eishi_Ki:
Contributing and boost my filter? You realize I was the first to push the case and barely anyone believed Eishi to be scum? How exactly should that help me as mafia? Taking a hard stance?Going against the grain? None of these helps mafia.
Eishi joined in against me after two posts from heist and O.Golden, accusing me for townreading sciberbia too early.

Now that you know that sciberbia is town with very high probability, why should I defend him as mafia? Townreading him actually was against the mafia's interest, as you see with suki's next post doubting my read. Then heist and O.Golden attacked me.

On June 05 2012 04:22 Vivax wrote:


I placed the vote on Y cause we needed a day 1 lynch and there were two votes left, in the end those were from me and heist as last vote. I could have kept suki alive if I wanted to. And i could have voted after heist.

I know my defense of suki looks scummy, but no mafia would defend one of theirs directly, then vote for them and reveal the information. It's a loss-loss situation for scum.



GG Mafia

On June 05 2012 06:49 sciberbia wrote:
Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.

@ShiaoPi
you think he will flip town now?

On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote:
--snipped--

ShiaoPi

Nothing that would really make me think he's town (except his recent activity), but plenty to make me think he's Mafia:

- Vaguely defensive of suki (a confirmed Mafia) and also quite defensive of heist (another pretty likely Mafia at this point)
- Comfortable with voting Vivax for the whole Day 2... Then suddenly he's a neutral read just before deadline?? What the heck? How does self-voting make him look townish? Looks more like he was already planning for an escape route from the flip's fallout than actually reading Vivax as neutral all of a sudden.
- Suspecting Eishi_Ki with pretty flimsy reasoning (just suki saying he's town?)
- Suspecting me for having too little content, although if he had bothered to look at my previous newbie game (as vanilla townie), I had much less content compared to "filler" in that game - I think I've done a MUCH better job this time around on avoiding spam/filler, but it's just my nature, I like to write even if there's not too much to say

I'll be voting for heist or ShiaoPi on Day 3, unless something very drastic happens.

On June 05 2012 22:02 Xatalos wrote:
Back... Too bad I wasn't around to see the lynch unfold (early wake up for today), but in the end, I doubt I would have done anything differently. Vivax's behaviour at the end was certainly strange, but it wasn't enough of a reason to suddenly vote Heist so close to the deadline, risking a no-lynch.

This might help Mafia in choosing their night kill, but I'm going to update my reads on the remaining players based on these two flips (Vivax and Superouman) and other developments.

On June 06 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote:


That logic is just bad or outright scummy. Why wouldn't you want us to look at o.Golden_ne's filter? One lynch can decide the game, so everything has to be considered. Something can't just be forgotten without a good reason (no, giving a replacement a "fresh start" is not a good reason). By that logic, Ange777's pro-town efforts should be forgotten as well while analyzing austinmcc. There's just no sense in what you're saying.

Unforgiven_ve, I want to hear you address my list of suspicious points about you, as well as austinmcc's inquiry. heist, where are you? My list of suspicious points about you is pretty short right now, but Unforgiven_ve makes less sense as Mafia than you considering how Day 1 went, so you have a long way to go if you don't want to be lynched next.

On June 01 2012 21:10 Xatalos wrote:

-snip-

We need to get a good lynch effort started before the deadline is too close, or Mafia might manipulate the thread to chaos, causing a no-lynch (thus increasing the pool of suspects compared to likely townies after the night kill is over, making it much easier to hide). I'm not very convinced about lynching Unforgiven_ve anymore, since he started showing signs of wanting to participate in the Mafia hunt.

I was thinking about voting for Superouman a bit earlier, but after Miltonkram's post on Ange777, I reconsidered.

-snipped-


About Suki... I'll look at his filter when I get home, but I got the feeling he's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia. He doesn't read as townie as some players (Cattivik, sciberbia) to me, but I think he also responded earlier in a pretty townie manner. I want to see more from him, but I don't think he's a good Day 1 lynch at all.

On June 02 2012 04:15 Xatalos wrote:
Ange777, your case against Suki gives me hope that you might become an asset for the Mafia hunt after all. More so than Superouman or Unforgiven_ve. However, you made mistakes / mispresentations. Suki jumping on the lynch push for you (in favor of his better Mafia read) isn't really suspicious in itself, since the other option was to basically vote for no-lynch (Unforgiven_ve had no other votes, so it could have as well been voting for no-lynch). It's actually the most logical thing to do as town (unless you think you can turn the tide of the thread in 3 hours) to ensure a lynch, even if it isn't your best Mafia read. I also dislike how you put so much faith in Unforgiven_ve's initial defense, while to me it just looked like angry deflection and dodging. Unforgiven_ve had one decent post later, but why you would bring up his most Mafia-esque post as his defense, I can't say. I can certainly see why someone would feel suspicious of Unforgiven_ve at this point. Do you think Suki is Mafia if you consider these points? What are your other reads? Please share what you can, as fast as you can.

On June 02 2012 04:59 Xatalos wrote:

You writing posts like this makes me less and less convinced about lynching you, Ange777. If you continued like that tomorrow, it would be a huge loss if you died to this lynch. I'm willing to remove my vote from you and move it to Unforgiven_ve, who just reminded me why I was so suspicious of him initially.

##Unvote
##Vote Unforgiven_ve

The deadline is closing and we need to get 7 votes on a single suspicious player. #1 goes easily to Unforgiven_ve, since Ange777 started playing actively and Superouman hasn't done anything very suspicious (besides his lack of interest in town's win condition). Looks like Suki is absent, which might explain why he was willing to stop pursuing his best Mafia read for today's lynch. Or then he's fake-AFK and wanting to make me think that. In any case, Suki, you need to be more decisive and committing for tomorrow. I don't think you're Mafia right now, but you should improve your play and always trust in your own ability to push the discussion. Consider yourself warned.

On June 02 2012 05:46 Xatalos wrote:

I want a Mafia/lurker/distraction lynch instead of a no-lynch, but I don't want an active townie lynch. I'm no longer willing to lynch Ange777 and still not willing to lynch Suki. This is a serious dilemma though, since time is running out and this vote switch gained momentum fast. Mafia are probably laughing and manipulating this lynch as they please. How much time is left? If there is absolutely no other option, I might have to vote Suki to to disrupt a no-lynch, but I sure hope it doesn't come to that.

Everyone, look at Unforgiven_ve's filter and tell me there's a town motivation behind his play. I can see one for Suki (including his move to ensure the lynch on Ange777 while he still looked like a good lynch) but not for Unforgiven_ve. I hope there's still time to make the correct lynch. I'll be reading his filter to see something that hasn't already been said by me, Ange777 or anyone else.

On June 02 2012 06:49 Xatalos wrote:
-snipped--

I feel bad about this but since so many are AFK / disinterested, I have to ensure the lynch on a probable townie. At least this will make things a lot clearer.

##Unvote
##Vote Suki

On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote:
-snipped-

All in all, I'm most concerned about Heist among us who opposed lynching Suki. But I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.

I'm really tired right now and I'm going to sleep. I feel confident there's enough material to find the remaining Mafia already, so I'll have to read a lot of filters when I get back. Ange777, you're pushing for Vivax, and although you were already right about Suki, I'm not convinced about Vivax at the moment. I'll have to read through his filter next to search for the signs you're seeing.

On June 03 2012 10:42 Xatalos wrote:
--snipped--
Heist

Heist is the opposite of Miltonkram. His early posts look pretty decent (unlike Miltonkram), but he starts to raise my suspicions later on in his filter (while my suspicions of Miltonkram lessened later in his filter). The one I found the most suspicious is this post:



The feeling I get from this post is that he's in panic and trying to figure out something to save his teammate. He uses capslock, multiple question marks, and worst of all, makes a potential slip by saying "now it just looks like you are bussing". If we consider the option of Suki being town (as they both imply), how can Vivax possibly be bussing him? What if Heist already knows that Suki is Mafia and makes such a weird statement just because of that?

Later Heist concedes and votes for Suki to attain the majority, which could be Mafia trying to buy credibility or town trying to genuinely ensure the lynch. This isn't a suspicious move (the opposite, actually) but his posts up to this point are pretty much desperate attempts to save Suki. This emotion and hastiness also seems pretty out of character considering his calm posting earlier.

I'm going with Heist for today, and I'm still not convinced about Vivax being the correct lynch. If needed to attain the majority, I'd have to consolidate on Vivax, but there's still so much time left I'm hoping it doesn't come to that.

##Vote Heist

I'm going to sleep now (finally, it's REALLY late here). I hope to see some good responses when I come back, especially from the people I took the most effort to write about (Vivax, Miltonkram, Heist). Vivax, I hope you'll take it as your goal for today to regain our trust by sharing your reads (especially your original and in-depth reads) about the players and discussion topics so far. Miltonkram and Heist, you'll need some pretty amazing Mafia hunting to convince me you're town...

On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote:
--snipped---

I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.

What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.

On June 04 2012 02:57 Xatalos wrote:

Vivax was initially a high town read for me (same as sciberbia, and also s0Lstice once he started to participate), but as the game went on, I lost some of my faith in Vivax being town. He seems to have a lot of town motivations behind his plays, but also some suspicious motivations in between. However, it would actually be fitting for Mafia to be inconsistent in that way: sometimes appearing townie, sometimes not so much. Taking that into consideration, I'll have to drop my read on Vivax from slightly townie to neutral/suspicious.

You bring up some good points about s0Lstice's case on Heist. Heist has definitely stayed suspicious of Vivax for a long time, and considering that Vivax might be Mafia after all, it's a big plus for Heist to have consistently pushed for him. I'll have to reconsider my vote on Heist - Vivax might in fact be the better lynch for today. I'll also have to look deeper into Miltonkram's filter, since his early posts scream Mafia, but his later posts are nowhere near as suspicious. Maybe he just learned to conceal his motivations better?

This is for everyone: I want to see more activity. Most of us haven't posted anything in like... 20 hours?? Especially Vivax, Miltonkram and Heist, I want to see you posting. Anything is better than nothing, and Mafia hunting is better than unhelpful speculation or filler posting.

On June 04 2012 18:25 Xatalos wrote:
It looks almost certain now that it's going to be either Vivax or Heist for today. I thought Heist was the better lynch for sure, but his answers for my accusation were good and ShiaoPi pointed out how he's been consistently pushing for Vivax throughout the game. On the other hand, the defense from Vivax wasn't nearly as convincing:



1) Defeatist attitude: not minding being lynched. The perfect way for Mafia to deny additional information and/or prepare for a bussing scheme. There's no easier target to bus than one that has already given up.
2) WIFOM: repeating once again as a big point of "evidence" that s0Lstice was killed for suspecting Heist. It's a possibility, but far from evident, especially since s0Lstice was an all-around good town player.
3) OMGUS / Deflection: not bothering to defend from the accusations and/or to push for another lynch. Instead just throws around two names who have been pushing for his own lynch, Heist and ShiaoPi, claiming they will be in "serious trouble" after the lynch. If that's the case, why not focus on making them the lynch for today instead? It's far from quaranteed that his flip, as town, would hold Heist and ShiaoPi responsible or suspect. But his flip, as Mafia, wouldn't clear them either, since these accusations are so shallow and potentially just distancing. The chance for him being Mafia and not wanting to reveal too much with this flip seems much more likely than for being town and wanting to put Heist and ShiaoPi to the lynching list with a "sacrifice".
4) Undermining the atmosphere: placing doubt on Ange777, the main reason for Suki being lynched, without anything to back it up except... well, she lurked early game? Looks more like spreading distrust towards active town posters (without even a good reason) than genuinely wanting to catch Mafia (who thinks Ange777 is Mafia right now? not even Vivax, it seems...).

Since Vivax is looking more and more suspicious, while Heist has alleviated some of my suspicions, I'm going to switch my vote at this point.

##Unvote
##Vote Vivax

On June 07 2012 06:00 Xatalos wrote:

Well, our opinions don't seem to differ too much... Although if you actually read my metagame, you'd see how I have much less "filler content" than I had in my previous game (as town). Good recovery for your sister anyways

What I most want to hear right now are ShiaoPi's and austinmcc's thoughts on heist. ShiaoPi, how does heist read for you right now, and how about Unforgiven_ve? austinmcc, you seem suspicious of Unforgiven_ve, but are you going to vote for heist today?

On June 07 2012 22:32 Xatalos wrote:

1) Have I ever even suspected heist for his vote switch as a major reason in the first place? I suspected his weird behaviour (flip-flopping his stance on suki, appearing indecisive and panicking with the lynch, assumption of Vivax bussing suki while suki was apparently a town read for him...). It would have been pretty pointless/bad for me as Mafia to vouch for suki's townieness while his lynch had clearly been inevitable for a long time.
2) Yep...
3) Dunno, maybe just to appear more townie. Why would I push heist instead of Vivax on Day 2 if I was Mafia? Why would I risk my credibility by defending suki (the inevitable lynch) openly as Mafia?

I'll have to read your full case later, not for your sake, but to explain the reasonings behind my potentially weird plays...

On June 03 2012 19:15 Xatalos wrote:


It was very late when I was writing that (pretty tired at that point), and I likely had some confirmation bias based on your bussing comment. I agree that the point about your emotionality toward Suki's lynch wasn't good, since looking at your filter again, your earlier posts actually DO include excessive usage of capslock and strong, emotional statements. And the situation really was quite hasty, so it's not all so weird that your posts were hasty as well.

I see that there's a possible townie logic in your bussing comment. Maybe you just completely disregarded Suki's alignment and focused solely on motivations for Vivax's behaviour. It's still weird to assume Suki being Mafia in your argument unless you thought that to actually be the case. This isn't enough to lynch for alone, but something that keeps me wary about your other posts.

What's more troubling for me than that single comment is your apparent disinterest in hunting Mafia. I read s0Lstice's case on you and it had valid points: you pushed for Vivax initially, but dropped that case without much consideration and pushed to lynch Superouman instead. I see no signs of you being truly interested in catching Mafia so far. I'll keep my vote locked in until you can convince me that you genuinely want to lynch Mafia, not just unhelpful players in general.

On June 08 2012 04:00 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Shiaopi, change your vote for heist too plz.

On June 08 2012 05:50 Miltonkram wrote:
@ ShiaoPi
Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip.

On June 08 2012 05:47 ShiaoPi wrote:
And if we want to shot into the dark (aka the lurkers) go with eishi...he was soft-defended by suki and has been lurking all game long. Seriously...

On June 08 2012 07:16 Xatalos wrote:


Really, you didn't expect that...?

I'm happy austinmcc finally came to his senses. It would have been pretty much GG if we had a no-lynch. Now we're very close to victory instead.

On June 08 2012 07:40 Xatalos wrote:


Just before leaving: why austinmcc / me instead of ShiaoPi? Lol? I don't see why you would make that statement as either town or Mafia. Your play is just too confusing to think about. We both ensured the lynch (austinmcc at the last minute, but whatever, he got the job done) while ShiaoPi was very close to success with saving heist. I can't see how he would honestly see heist as town after all this, even advocating a NO-LYNCH of all things to save him... He must be Mafia or this game doesn't make any sense.

On June 08 2012 08:43 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
The thing is...Shaopi defending heist so badly just shows a super bad mafia play, why whould he be so evident? TELL ME SHAOPI WRRYYYYYYYY

On June 07 2012 21:34 ShiaoPi wrote:
My case on Xatalos:

I'll be going through his play chronologically:

Day 1:
I already stated his "filler/moderating" content so I'll just give you a quote as example: + Show Spoiler +

His first meaningful action on Day 1 is a vote on Unforgiven, who did seem and still seems like a wildcard in regards of his posting habits. It is an easy action to take, since unforgiven's play is erratic and at day 1 he did not yet have some credibility by pushing the lynch on suki. He drops his suspicions as soon as unforgiven makes a reasonable defense. Could be a sign of townie but also of scum who decides that unforgiven is too hard to push as mislynch.

His next vote is on ange777:


I bolded the parts which seem important to me.
-His post was still 9 hours away from deadline, a reasonable amount of time so there was no need to hastily consolidate on a lynchcandidate.
-He gives no other reasons to vote ange besides sheeping MIlton's post (admittedly there was still not much to make off, but the sheeping is important)
-A soft defense of suki, who is, just as a reminder, confirmed scum.

After Ange posts her case on suki, Xatalos responds the following:


He keeps up a defense on suki and keeps some suspicion on unforgiven.

Next up is his voteswitch from ange to Unforgiven:




Drops all suspicions against ange and just goes after unforgiven after the (at that moment) most outspoken townie-seeming person drops a FOS on him. It seems to me like an active attempt to deflect towns attention away from suki, especially as he keeps soft-defending suki.

He keeps lobbying for a unforgiven lynch although most of the people seem to jump on the suki-train instead. This post strikes me as important:



He says he does not want an active townie lynch. But suki is not really an active townie at that moment especially in comparison to unforgiven who was online and posting all the time leading up to the lynch.

In my last post I already outlined the switch from unforgiven to ange, but as it is really important I'll quote it again:



By that time suki is already a goner as heist has already swapped his vote. There is no need for Xatalos to switch, besides trying to be on the "right" side of a lynch. Of note is that he is the very last one to switch his vote.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night 1

The only remarkable post is this one:



He starts throwing suspicion towards heist after solstice points him out. No original case with strong backing until now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Day 2

He begins the day by posting a massive list of all players, which with closer inspection is just a summary of events. With two notable exceptions, a slight suspicion of MIlton and adding his vote onto heist.


He is (again!) sheeping reasons outlined by others. There is close to zero input from him in this list and following vote on heist. The single thing he adds (the bussing comment) can be read either way and is a really weak argument. This gets reinforced by his following post in regards to heist's answer:



He backs off his suspicions slightly and then just sheeps solstice's reasons. He also states that he wants to stick with his vote if heist does nothing to convince him otherwise. One can assume that he still has some strong conviction that heist is mafia. But how does this post feature in it then?



I post a defense of heist and points on Vivax and Xatalos just goes with the current flow of the thread (again) and now suddenly seems willing to switch on Vivax. Maybe because he knows that neither heist or Vivax are scum? Where did his conviction about heist go?

He then proceeds to switch his vote from heist to Vivax with the following:



His switch seems to be well reasoned with his list of 4 points, but these things were all mentioned already by several others. How come that Xatalos just never seems to find some original strong evidence against his lynch targets? Quite an interesting thing.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night 2

He again posts a giant list of summaries, this time including me in his list of suspects (besides heist). His strongest argument is Golden's post in regards to suki. His other arguments were pretty weak.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Day 3

He immediately drops the vote on heist.
As in defense to Milton's suspicions he keeps up this single line of defense against his filler/wishy-washy.



I am asking you how big should the metagame with a sample size of 1 count in regards to townieness/scumminess? What I am seeing from Xatalos is non-comittal play, filler content, attempts to seem contributing (look at his lists) and always sheeping reasons others have brought up. So I strongly believe Xatalos to be mafia.

##Vote: Xatalos

On June 08 2012 03:49 ShiaoPi wrote:
My case on Xatalos in short:

-Not much content despite being pretty active in thread
-Wants to look contributing (lists) but actually does not much.
-Easily swayed from his own opinion
-Soft-defense of suki during the d1-lynch and trying to deflect attention onto unforgiven
-Always going with the flow of the thread, never going against it.

On June 09 2012 02:39 Xatalos wrote:

--snipped---

I have already answered to your case once (and pointed out its flaws). You agreed that some parts of it were incorrect, we agreed to disagree on some parts, and obviously it's now mostly obsolete as a whole (your points regarding heist are at best wrong - and most likely indicative of you being teamed up with him). So, I have a hard time grasping why you would just copy-paste your (clearly incorrect) old case instead of making a new case.

You also added some new points, but they're basically just WIFOM (no matter what I do, it's for a hidden Mafia agenda - there's clearly nothing I could do that would seem townish in front of your heavy confirmation bias).

It's also blatantly wrong to say I've been following the flow of the thread: I was against lynching Ange777 once she started contributing, against lynching suki until I had to ensure the lynch with my final vote (although ninja'd by heist), against lynching Vivax until I (in hindsight, mistakenly) later during Day 2 had to agree that his recent play wasn't townish, heavily against a no-lynch although heist, austinmcc and yourself almost caused a no-lynch yesterday. If anyone, YOU have been following the flow of the thread (not counting yesterday where you went all-in to save heist -> instant Mafia victory).

With that out of the way, let's move on to ShiaoPi's own filter (o.Golden_ne + ShiaoPi, of course):



This post already reeks of non-committal and vague reads (without much of any reasoning). He's ready to lynch 4 players (Cattivik/Vivax, Unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Ange777/austinmcc) - none of whom seem to be Mafia at this point - but doesn't actually commit to anything! He just says they're "lurking" or "a bit suspicious" and leaves it at that. He doesn't pressure, he doesn't reason, he even admits that he's just sheeping s0Lstice on suspecting Unforgiven_ve... Nothing in this post feels like something a townie would say. He doesn't actually Mafia hunt or add anything to the discussion. He just posts some vague reads without committing to any of them.



I already mentioned this post earlier. He tries to save suki from being lynched, but doesn't actually even think that suki is town! He just basically says "suki might well be Mafia, but it'd be better to lynch a lurker before him". How does that make any sense at all from a town perspective? Only Mafia would say something like that. This post is pretty much enough to determine his alignment in itself, but in fact, it's merely the start...

He's conveniently away for the lynch deadline and retains his vote on Ange777/austinmcc. Based on that earlier post, I'm fairly certain he would have continued trying to save suki - even though he didn't have a town read on suki at any point! - had he not been partying somewhere. Just because of this dumb luck, he manages to narrowly escape the flak s0Lstice, Vivax, heist and I get for having a town read on suki. Even though, in fact, he has by far the most suspicious relation with suki during Day 1 - way more suspicious than any of us four.

Now we get to the juicy part:



ShiaoPi's first post is very, very wishy-washy and non-committal. He's "kind of" suspicious of several players, but doesn't commit to anything - much like o.Golden_ne played earlier. His main suspect is Vivax, although he repeatedly adds that Vivax might equally well be a bad townie (how non-committal can one get...?). Even though he thinks Vivax has a good chance of flipping town, he just goes with the consensus opinion and wants to lynch Vivax anyway.

He defends heist from being lynched, much like he defended suki earlier. The one thing that really screams Mafia here is this: he uses many of the exact same arguments to validate his desire to lynch me that actually applied to heist as well - but when he talks about heist, he trashes/ignores those same arguments completely!!! This glaring contradiction can only be explained by both heist and ShiaoPi being Mafia. If he was town, there's no way he would use the same arguments to accuse me that he earlier defended heist from.

On June 05 2012 06:53 ShiaoPi wrote:



After Vivax self-votes (which is definitely not something townies would/should do), ShiaoPi immediately loses all his (already almost non-existent) commitment for pushing Vivax. He tries to make himself look like he's not to blame for the lynch: after all, he has a town/neutral read on Vivax... Who could blame him for just consolidating to prevent a no-lynch? Win-win!

Again wishy-washy and doesn't commit to anything. Wants to lynch Eishi_Ki or me (town & town) instead of heist. He might have even succeeded and won the game for Mafia, if it weren't for some good calls, especially by austinmcc.

Well, that's pretty much it. There's very likely more Mafia agenda elsewhere in his filter, but even a part of this case should be enough to convince anyone he's Mafia - and all this together makes it basically impossible for him NOT to be Mafia...

On June 09 2012 09:17 austinmcc wrote:
Maybe I was being me again and making it overly complicated, but I figured you'd both shoot Unforgiven.

You needed to get him off your back and needed to eliminate someone who said he wasn't looking at ShiaoPi. Figured ShiaoPi would make the same shot because he came out looking so bad that his best bet was to keep making you seem scummy, so he had to shoot Unforgiven as well and start throwing out WIFOM. Which he...didn't do.

On June 09 2012 09:44 Xatalos wrote:


Heh... Damned if you do, damned if you don't How do you get into these situations in the first place? haha

On June 11 2012 06:37 austinmcc wrote:
Yeah, up until the last 20 minutes or so I was still on the fence, since I'd found you town and Xatalos mafia before heist's flip, but I don't know that I was going to budge after that. After the last lynch, and after finding Crossfire scummy in XIII but lynching Hyaach on that final day, I honestly didn't want to spend much time looking things over, figuring that the less I thought about it the more right I'd be.

Frankly, your not bringing up the NK should have stuck out in my mind, but I didn't pay attention to it. You made all the other arguments, including asking me to look at milton, but didn't try and leverage the NK.