EPT/in
Hello again to the crew from Newbie Mini XIV. Howdy to all the rest of you!
Newbie Mini XV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
/in Hello again to the crew from Newbie Mini XIV. Howdy to all the rest of you! | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
1. Lynch vs. No-Lynch: Always go for the lynch. Lynching is the only game mechanic, especially in a game w/out vigis, that allows town to get rid of scum. Mislynches happen, and they are unfortunate, but the town gains more information from a mislynch than a no-lynch (eg. who bandwagoned when, how players on the chopping block respond pressure, etc.) In short, lynches have to happen. Anyone advocating a no-lynch will immediately have my suspicions. 2. Roleclaims: These are tricky because they all come down to timing. They can be the sign of a desperate scum player, or a blue role actively trying to help. If you are a blue role here are a few things to think about. When will claiming most actively help town? Do the mafia have a read on you? If so, what is the best way to present the information you have that vanilla townies do not? Whatever you do, don't roleclaim with your first post Day 1. I think I read a game where someone did that, needless to say townies lost. 3. Be active: The best possible way for you to help the town is by actively posting in the thread. If we have even one player lurking, any information gained from a lynch of that player is lessened greatly. Mafia have a reason to lurk, they want to blend in. Townies that lurk give mafia that place to blend in. In that sense, the townies are actively hurting the goal (to lynch scum) of the town. Hopefully this is all the discussion we need on questions of policy. If the town spends too much time discussing policy they spend less time actively scumhunting. ---snip to lynch or not to lynch?- Hide Spoiler - Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated. If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide. Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play. With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
The issue I have with your logic is that we don't know the setup and that mafia is not a game of pure probability. If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however. Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with. In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on. Discussion on when a no-lynch might help can be held off until such a situation presents itself. Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better. I'm leaving for work, but I'll check the thread when I get back later. Give me some activity to come back to town. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I ran through the math and you are correct that we get 5 lynches. We only get 3 if we hit town every time. If there comes a time when we hit MYLO (mislynch and lose) then I could see NLing to get better odds. NLing any time before that reduces the chance that our (possible) medic is actually useful to us. I still stand by the fact that no-lynching D1 is a really bad play, but if we hit MYLO I won't automatically be against it. I see now what you were saying. Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
 | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On May 31 2012 19:54 s0Lstice wrote What are your thoughts on Superouman and Unforgiven_ve Milton? We need more out of Superouman for sure. If he keeps lurking then we have to decide if we bite the bullet and lynch the lurker now or later. Same goes for Ange777. I hope it isn't a problem, but you never really know until you get deep in the game. As to my thoughts on Unforgiven I'm a bit confused. First he states he's against bandwagons and then in the very same post states he's saving his vote for the very end of the day cycle. I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but why would he directly contradict himself in his own post? I'm thinking perhaps a language issue. The intent of his last sentence, asking for town leadership, seems strange as well. Although with that sentence it's easier to extrapolate some sort of scum logic. He might be seeing if he can get some of the town to follow one or two confirmed townies, that way when mafia shoots those townies at night all is chaos and the scum can blend in. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Cattivik/Vivax is my top scum read as of this moment. Both Golden and heist have elaborated most of the reasons he seems scummy so I won't repeat them. There is one possible scumslip by him that I think they missed though. ---snip Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. Notice how in this section of his post he just points out the three most active/content filled posters at the time. He may be trying to buddy up to those he thinks might be the most influential in the thread. I did the same thing in my last game when I was scum. His attack on Eishi_Ki is just bad. Looks like scum floundering to me. The attack looks more like he's trying to say, "hey, look at me! I'm doing something that should make me look pro-town!" rather than actually helping the town. I'm off to class for a bit, but I'll check back in a few hours from now. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 01 2012 05:38 Superouman wrote: Since it's getting late in europe and not much time remaining, i'll vote now ##Vote sciberbia You do realize we have another 24 hours before lynch correct? If you really see something in sciberbia's play that you find suspicious make a case about it. Don't just throw his name out there. Ummm yeah i should talk more but the thing is that i don't know what to say, this is kind of a blind pick for now, but i am always suspicious of people who talk too much at the beginning ---snip And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier. For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect Do you see the contradictions here? First you say not to talk too much and then you throw out a useless hypothetical situation. Afterwards you encourage lynching lurkers which is an extremely safe stance to take. How are we supposed to post? A lot? A little? These posts from you are not helping, and they are leaving us with very few stances to hold you to as the game goes along. All I've seen while looking through your filter has been one or two line posts with very little content to them. This can mean either lazy town or mafia trying to keep from committing to too much information. These contentless posts are just as bad as lurking. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
If you really are town, spend the time you would be using to defend yourself and post a decent case against a player or two. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler + Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished @Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. My suspicions on Vivax/Cattivik are still there and I'm not ignoring them. However I understand how difficult it is to post scumreads when it feels like half the town is tunneling you. If he feels like he needs to constantly defend his posts, he can't actually contribute to the town. I'd like to see when or if he tries to "help" the town before I'm ready to lynch him, that way we can tie him down to any stances he committs himself to and look at those stances later in the game. Also, how can you attack me for backing off of Vivax/Cattivik (which I have in terms of direct pressure, haven't in terms of suspicion) when you backed off of him at s0Lstice's behest? Trying to deflect pressure much (poorly I might add)? As for my statements on Unforgiven, it really feels like his case has developed because of the language barrier. Why else would he post something like this? + Show Spoiler + Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Such an obvious contradiction in his post seems like there are nuances he's trying to convey, but has a difficult time putting to words. For clarity's sake I don't think Unforgiven's case is very good. I think it's poorly conceived and that scum have jumped on it to give it more steam than it should ever have had. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I think you have a really good case against suki, but I need to reread it and go over the thread a few more times just to make sure it checks out. I think I have a case that may be even better though. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Ange777 I would like to draw everyone's attention to our prime lurking player Ange777. Logic dictates that a lurking townie would at least try to contribute in some way. With that in mind let's take a look at his posts. I can't think of any good reason for a no lynch. We might get scum today and without day 1 lynch the night 1 kill will be even more diffficult to analyse. He takes a very safe stance here, one that steps on no ones toes. Mostly fluff. Since I took the same stance and it's his first post I'll take it easy on him. Second post: I have been out all day and will only be back later. I'll catch up with the thread then! He only posts this after there has been several mentions of his name. If he's been out all day, how come he's back in the thread just a few hours after people have been threatening him? And to post that? Third post: Trying to catch up with the thread at 1:30 am is not that effective .... Out of the three players that already got a vote Unforgiven seems the most scummy. As townie your vote is always your strongest weapon for the scumhunt. I don't say that you should random vote other players but once you have a good case it is always good to push and vote it. Until now your play seems very safe, a lot of fluffy posts. But yes, I shouldn't be the one complaining when I am officially lurking. I even have to announce another day of lurking, but I promise some more (and BETTER!) action from me tomorrow before deadline! He pops into the thread shortly to bandwagon a case and post some pretty fluffy advice. Next he promises action near the deadline. Let me explain why his promises of action are scummy. Town don't play the game to keep from dying, they play the game to try and kill mafia. Scum play the game to stay alive. This is the key to analysis of his play. His second post is only after people have drawn focus to him. His third is useless and with that tantalizing promise of action. His promise seems like it's there to stave off pressure so that we distract ourselves with other cases and he can continue lurking without committing any information to the game. He is trying to stave off pressure and keep himself out of people's sights, a sign that he is actively lurking. I must also point out that superouman has drawn the most flak for his lurking style of play. If there are multiple lurkers, in this case Superouman and Ange777, a lurker lynch oftentimes benefits scum because they put their weight behind the lurker who is town. Knowing the pressure on superouman I'm inclined to lynch the other lurker because scum most likely have been trying to draw our attention to the wrong one. (I know I know. I pressured Superouman too.) The final and most damning piece of evidence is this, while he's been making excuses for lurking in this thread he's been active and contributing in TL Mafia LV. Seriously, check out the posting history on his profile and take a look. This is another sign that he has been actively attempting to lurk this game. If you see any flaws in my argument please point them out, but I think it's pretty ironclad. ##Vote: Ange777 | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Do you disagree with the other points I made about timing? What about my analysis of the content of his/her posts? What about the fact that scum may have been trying to derail our lynch to the wrong lurker? Don't just point out one point in my case and claim that you've refuted the entire thing. My entire case does not hinge on him/her being busy with two games at once even though I still think Ange777 is deliberately lurking. There is a difference between lurking because of time constraints and lurking with purpose. It's a difficult distinction to make but I think Ange is lurking with purpose. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Making the distinction between a townie that lurks and a scum that lurks comes entirely down to motivation. It's a difficult distinction to make, which is why I made such a lengthy post on it. The problem with a lurker is obvious, they are lurking. No, the problem with a lurker is they might be scum trying to fly under the radar. The way to spot scummy lurker play is by examining when that player enters the thread and for what reasons. Analysis can be made of lurker play, you just have to know what to look for. I think I made a good case and I stand by it. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 2 2012 00:44 suki wrote: ---snip I've also accused Milton of backing off of Cattivik, but what sticks out to me is that he has not shown any commitment to a scum read on a player, whereas I have. If I'm suspicious for being non-commital and political, I don't see why Miltonkram isn't much higher on the suspicion list. Really!? Have you been completely ignoring my last few posts? At this point I think you are deliberately misrepresenting me and it's really pissing me off. You're attempting to deflect pressure onto me. I've answered why I voted for sciberbia but you keep ignoring it. I just posted a case on why I think Ange777 is scum. While it is a case against a lurker I stand by it because I think it has merit. Let me outline why your play sticks out me: - Your defense largely consists of deflecting pressure to other players. - You've bandwagoned as sciberbia has pointed out. It's not in and of itself a scumtell, but don't deny that you have. - You've committed yourself to what is, in my opinion, a bad case. (Unforgiven) For the record, I will support a lynch of any of the four following players in order from most suspicious to least: Ange777, suki, Superouman, and Vivax. I would also like to point out suspicious players that I have not yet had time to analyze: s0Lstice- He posted quite a few questions in his first few posts while not taking any hard stances. He's also spent a great deal of time defending other players while not committing himself to solid reads, a possible(?) attempt at buddying. His major saving grace is he started the pressure on Unforgiven. Golden- Seems like he's just jumping on bandwagons. He did that in the last game and was green, but I can't afford not to be suspicious of his behavior based on meta. Note: I just noticed Ange777's post, but I already had this typed up so might as well post it. I was just reading through his/her posts in TL Mafia LV and it really does look like Ange's crunched for time. Ange777, give me some solid reads and contribution and I'll consider removing my vote. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Well shit, perhaps s0Lstice was right about you. Kind of frustrating that I made that huge case against you, but I have to admit when someone has actively contributed. If you are scum, you are now far less dangerous because you've committed strongly to your suspicions and made a case against a player. We can analyze the stances you've taken later on in the game. As for Superouman, he's made some very strange statements. I can't help but think that if he were communicating in the scum QT, they would have advised him not to make some of the confusing statements that he has. Superouman is a pure policy lynch as far as I'm concerned. Policy lurker lynches are helpful, but we don't gain nearly as much information from them. My new top lynch candidate is suki. He's seemed very suspicious of me, but he's ignored my rebuttals against him that I've posted. Why would he do that to, from what I can tell, one of his top 2 scumreads? I think he knows that his case against me is bad. Half of it is based on misrepresenting that I haven't responded to him or that I've taken a position that I haven't actually taken. You've earned this suki. If you flip red it's going to feel so good. ##unVote: Ange777 ##Vote: suki | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
It really sucks to see how many people weren't around before the deadline. How long has it been since Eishi_Ki, Golden and suki have been active? Really lame guys. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 2 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own. Bullshit. Yes you can. Unforgiven may have posted his suspicion of suki first, but sciberbia has been the main force behind it. A mafia pushing a case against a mafia is called "bussing" and it happens all the freaking time. You are posting misleading information and needlessly tunneling Ange777 even while she is trying to post cases beneficial to the town. Please stop. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
 | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Just because we lynched and hit red does not mean that Unforgiven is clear of suspicion. Let's not forget that his original case against suki was not very good. Sciberbia was the actual driving force behind it. It could have been a weak "bus" attempt that Unforgiven hoped would gain him town cred. His play close to deadline was also appalling. My original read on him was bad/confusing town but he's getting closer and closer to scum territory. I'm off to work. Thanks for lifting my spirits with that lynch guys! | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Golden's play does remind me a lot of the way he played in NMM XIV and he flipped town. I don't think we can put too much faith in meta arguments. Golden's meta is a great meta if he rolled scum this game. I just think we need to take a look at how ShiaoPi plays this game out. I'd advocate disassociating his play with Golden's because I don't think anyone has a good read on him. I've got analysis of several players that I'm going to post right before the deadline. I don't want to post it earlier because it may give scum more information and help them choose their shot. I'll be back soon. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Unfortunately I have class during the two hours right before the deadline. The class often ends a little bit early so I was able to make it on just in time to make a quick post and see the lynch results. The case against heist is decent, but I'm not convinced. He was very reluctant to change his vote to suki. If scum go all in on a bussing attempt it's meant to take pressure off of themselves. If scum were to bus each other, I'd think they would try to attract more attention to the fact that they were voting scum in order to take pressure off of themselves, much like someone else I can think of (Unforgiven). I still need to reread s0Lstice's case on heist, so I'll go through the case and heist's filter again with an open mind. Let's look at Unforgiven's play. There were three main players pushing for suki's lynch: Sciberbia, Ange777, and Unforgiven. Of the three, which of them flaunted the fact that they voted for scum? Showing off that he voted for scum is not a play that helps town, it's a play to keep himself alive. Keeping oneself alive is scum motivation, that or he's town with a massive ego. I won't write off either possibility. Let's not forget that his case against suki was really flimsy. It's possible that he posted that case on actual scum in order to take pressure off himself, but also with the expectation that the case would be dropped. Time is running out so I need to get this out there in case I die. As we got closer to the lynch deadline, Vivax's points and posting got more and more nonsensical. It doesn't take a great leap of judgement to think that Vivax panicked as his scumbuddy got closer and closer to the chopping block. In my last game I remember how difficult it was not to panic whenever pressure was on me or my partner in scum. That may have happened with him. If I'm still alive come day post I still have a lot of work to do. I need to read through the filters more and try to map out accusations, counter-accusations, and defenses as they happened. I will post again when I feel I have a better handle on this game. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm putting together a larger case against him, but it's going to take me a little bit. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Thanks for playing Ange777! Despite being inactive most of D1, you really came back and contributed later on. Hopefully I'll get to play more games with you in the future. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
First post: Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me+ Show Spoiler + I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia. what you can expect from me+ Show Spoiler + Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around. what i ask of you guys+ Show Spoiler + 1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline. to lynch or not to lynch?+ Show Spoiler + Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated. If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide. Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play. what I think we should focus on right now+ Show Spoiler + The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on: 1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced? Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia? At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post. 2nd Post: + Show Spoiler + In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on. On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. 3rd post: I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting.+ Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 16:47 Eishi_Ki wrote: @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all. It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use. 4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it. 5th post: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work. He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman. Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty. Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player. sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues. D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax. Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy. Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute! | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I agree with your advice on the way our (possible) blue players should play. We should be wary of any claims however. If we're in the setup without blues we won't have a counter-claim if scum should try to claim. See you guys later! | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished and I responded to suki here. ---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler + Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler + @Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it. If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
---snip On June 04 2012 21:23 Xatalos wrote: Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself. I'm not entirely satisfied with your defense of your actions. You deflect attention away from the points I was trying to make about you, mainly that your filter has a lot of filler content (e.g. lists of town reads, coaching players, policy discussion). Filler content is fine early on, but as we get later into the game it actively distracts from scumhunting all the while appearing like you're contributing more than you are. Does that make sense? Perhaps I didn't make those points strongly enough. I really do feel like there is a case to be made against you. I find it odd that heist and Vivax are the ones who've gotten the most flak for their vote switches and people have been content to ignore you. Moving on to real D2 lynch candidates. I don't support the case on heist. If the option is between a no lynch or him I will choose to add my vote to him, but I think Vivax is the stronger case. I can't believe that people seem to have taken his comments on the s0Lstice night kill seriously. And guess who his case was: heist. -_- This is exactly what scum would say if they were trying to promote a mislynch based on a night kill. If heist is scum, he shot s0Lstice to reduce pressure on himself. If Vivax is scum, he shot s0Lstice to make it look like heist was trying to reduce pressure on himself. This degenerates into WIFOM really fast, but it seems that some of the town have given the point credence. Other than that Vivax's defense has not been great and has been centered around how active he is. This reminds me of Eishi_Ki's comments on "Hollywooding" in poker. What are some of the traits that define Vivax's play? Hyper-aggresiveness, activity, and almost complete assurance in some fairly weak reads. My theory is that he came into the game with just such a playstyle in mind, making himself the opposite of the typical scummy player. I think he has overdone it by taking it to an extreme. All of us townies have felt doubt in our reads, correct? As town, we are each dealing with a game of incomplete information. Vivax switched votes quite a bit toward the D1 deadline all the while saying, "I know I'm right, I know I'm right!" This is not the way a townie would play. A town player would admit to possibly being wrong and/or convinced of a better case. It all reeks of attempting to keep up a facade. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##Vote: Vivax | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
GG Vivax. Sorry bro. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
While reexamining my thoughts, I realized that I had turned a blind eye to heist's play. Most of his opinions lined up with mine and I was pretty damn sure Vivax was scum. Now that Vivax flipped town I think heist is our best possible D3 lynch. If I'm alive come day cycle I'll explain my thoughts in full. This next theory is pretty fucking crazy and I don't expect anyone to take it seriously unless heist turns out to be a mislynch. There is a small chance that sciberbia and Unforgiven are scum. Imagine this line of play for a scum team, two of you bus another player D1 and hope to ride free of suspicion for the rest of the game. I know it seems pretty out there but if there is anyone who could pull it off, I have enough respect for sciberbia's play to think he might have orchestrated it. This has been a nagging thought in the back of my mind for a while. I don't think this is how it went so I'll only seriously entertain the notion if/when we hit LYLO. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##Vote: heist | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
You're half-assing your posting. I've got RL complications and I can still find time to get in the thread and contribute. It's not slipped my mind that you may have bussed suki D1. If heist flips green, which is unlikely but possible, my attention will be turning towards you. You've still got a little less than 24 hours left in the day cycle to commit to some kind of reads. @ Xatalos I've outlined my opinions on heist and ShiaoPi. Right now I would imagine heist is staying out of the thread so as not to reveal much more information to us. It's just confirming my suspicions against him more and more. The case on ShiaoPi leans a little bit on how heist flips but not entirely. If he's scum Golden's play set him up pretty badly. If heist is a mislynch I'm considering Unforgiven, Eishi_Ki, ShiaoPi and you as all possible scum. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'd love to hear from you on just about anything. Post your reads please. With the information we've gained from the N2 kill what are your opinions on heist? I realize you have RL things going on as well but please give us some information/reads we can hold you to. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I realized that I've been holding too many people in suspicion. My thoughts have been something like this, "It makes sense for X to be scum and it makes sense for Y to be scum, but Z seems scummy too. If Z is scum then X and Y can't possibly be scum." It's really difficult for me to make any headway if I keep thinking like that. Right now the best case is against heist and it makes sense for ShiaoPi to be his scumbuddy. I'll be reassessing the thread as soon as we see heist flip. Do I find some of Xatalos's play scummy? Sure, but I also find parts of Eishi_Ki's and ShiaoPi's, as well as your own, play scummy too. You can't all be scum so I need to start sticking to a few assumptions. My folks are back in town and taking care of my sister. She only had a few minor injuries from the crash so that won't be weighing on my mind as much. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm getting some sleep. We've got 3 out of 7 people actually posting at this point. Pretty pathetic. Give me something to come back to town. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
If we have 2 mafia active at the moment and heist and Eishi_Ki don't show up then town loses no matter what. Let's assume we do have at least 4 active townies. If all the active townies move their votes onto someone who would get modkilled either way, we can make sure we don't lose more players than we have to. Of the two, heist looks scummier to me and Eishi_Ki could very well have lost interest in the game given his posting patterns. Thoughts? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
We don't need to lose more players than we have to today. I was kind of waiting to see how heist flips to finish my speculations on both you and Xatalos. You've made a good case against him, but I'm sticking with heist. Heist has been way more active than Eishi. His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? Of the two I think heist is way more likely to get in here and ninja vote. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Why not? Lynch all lurkers is a policy. The only reason I can see is that you're afraid of how he'll flip. @ austinmcc If heist is scum then we're pretty much set on ShiaoPi being scum. Please vote for heist. If Eishi_Ki is town like I think he is, then our only hope of winning this game is by ensuring a heist lynch. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Heist is back at the most convenient possible time for scum. Do you not see how obvious the heist + ShiaoPi scum team is right now? @ heist If you really are town and had to move, I'm sorry. You didn't really leave us much choice in this matter. My vote will not be moving from heist. He's scum. ShiaoPi's scum. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Thanks for the switch austinmcc. I know it was a tough call. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ ShiaoPi I have to admit that you were really close. At this point there is nothing you can do to convince me you aren't scum. If I were you I would just admit defeat now, but even if you don't I will still come after you if I'm alive come day cycle. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Scum nearly had this game won. If we mislynched and both scum survived we would have lost. ShiaoPi was just about to win the game, he was trying to force town players into a decision between him +heist vs. you + Xatalos. Luckily austinmcc made the correct call. One of us is dying tonight. If it's me I hope you will make the correct move and lynch ShiaoPi. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I think you're spot on in your assessment of D1. I'll be making a post right before the deadline of why it's extremely unlikely some players are scum and who I think is the correct lynch candidate given the information we have now. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Austinmcc/Ange777: Town- Ange777 came back into the D1 lynch discussion with an interesting choice. There was a lot of momentum for either an Unforgiven or a suki lynch. A D1 scum lynch is usually really bad for scum. I have a hard time believing that Ange would come back and bus suki D1 if she were scum. This read makes Ange/Austin confirmed town in my opinion. Unforgiven: Town- He's become confirmed town to me even though his attitude towards the game and posting content has been really bad. I'm reading him as egoistic townie and not scum. He started pressure on suki, he supported lynching heist. If he were scum he could have sheeped behind ShiaoPi's pressure on Xatalos and either forced a mislynch or a no-lynch. This is directed at you Unforgiven. All of your cases have been OMGUS. Look outside your ego and figure out what's actually been going on in the thread. You've given me the impression that you think this game revolves around you. It doesn't. Please use your brain. Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this. These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls. ShiaoPi: Scum- He defended both suki and heist. There is definite motive for this. The game is balanced around the typical D1 mislynch so D1 scum lynch is really bad for scum. I can easily see scum panicking and defending each other under such a stressful situation. During the D3 lynch discussion he heavily defended heist. He even defended him despite (sort of) agreeing with me on heist's suspicious disappearance. Yes, heist disappearance is weird (and fucking frustrating) but still I can't vote off one of my townreads just based on lack of activity... Notice how he tries to deflect attention from my original point ---snip that heist's timing for his sudden disappearance was really suspicious. Instead he uses the words weird and frustrating. If he's town there is no reason to disregard and draw attention away from the fact that heist's play was at least a bit suspicious (it was). His play reeks of scum defending scum and not town defending scum. I won't retread the same points that other players have made besides saying the case against ShiaoPi/Golden is solid. If I'm alive in a few minutes I will stand by it. If I'm dead I hope you all will take note.His disappearance seems really suspicious, doesn't it? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Sticking with my read just like I said I would. ##Vote: ShiaoPi | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I must admit that my status as confirmed townie came about more because of circumstance than actual good play on my part. My reads weren't always great and I did follow other players leads a few times. You're grasping at straws here though. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Gutsy play, gutsy win. As I promised I tip my hat to you ser. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Stop insulting people. There is absolutely no place for it in the after game discussion. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote: Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list) - He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play. - He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move. - He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this. These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls. I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end! You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes! @ suki I know how you feel. I got picked for scum in my first game too. I know what it feels like to be on the wrong end of sciberbia's analysis. He caught a scumslip by me D1 but couldn't get the lynch. I seriously don't think that guy has ever pointed the town wrong. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Note taken. From here on out I won't immediately discount evidence just because it's WIFOM. I'm still not sure I could have convinced myself that Xatalos was scum, but Unforgiven dying would have certainly given me more pause. Do you think I should have appeared less certain during the final night cycle? At the time I was fairly certain of ShiaoPi but I still had a nagging suspicion about Xatalos. If I had made it less obvious that ShiaoPi was my target for the next day I could have forced a few decent cases/posts out of Xatalos. Do you think that would have been a better play on my part? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Same here. Even though I've only played two games I'm starting to realize that TL Mafia is becoming an addiction. Needz moar... | ||
| ||
