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Hello again to the crew from Newbie Mini XIV. Howdy to all the rest of you!
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
/in Hello again to the crew from Newbie Mini XIV. Howdy to all the rest of you! | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
1. Lynch vs. No-Lynch: Always go for the lynch. Lynching is the only game mechanic, especially in a game w/out vigis, that allows town to get rid of scum. Mislynches happen, and they are unfortunate, but the town gains more information from a mislynch than a no-lynch (eg. who bandwagoned when, how players on the chopping block respond pressure, etc.) In short, lynches have to happen. Anyone advocating a no-lynch will immediately have my suspicions. 2. Roleclaims: These are tricky because they all come down to timing. They can be the sign of a desperate scum player, or a blue role actively trying to help. If you are a blue role here are a few things to think about. When will claiming most actively help town? Do the mafia have a read on you? If so, what is the best way to present the information you have that vanilla townies do not? Whatever you do, don't roleclaim with your first post Day 1. I think I read a game where someone did that, needless to say townies lost. 3. Be active: The best possible way for you to help the town is by actively posting in the thread. If we have even one player lurking, any information gained from a lynch of that player is lessened greatly. Mafia have a reason to lurk, they want to blend in. Townies that lurk give mafia that place to blend in. In that sense, the townies are actively hurting the goal (to lynch scum) of the town. Hopefully this is all the discussion we need on questions of policy. If the town spends too much time discussing policy they spend less time actively scumhunting. ---snip to lynch or not to lynch?- Hide Spoiler - Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated. If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide. Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play. With all that said, sciberbia has awakened my suspicions. He spends a lot of time with his first post promoting a no lynch. Notice that he weakly pushes his assumption that a no-lynch might be optimal so that he can back down from that assumption later without too much fuss. I think he knows that lynching is the best play, but he wants to divide town into discussing policy instead of actively scumhunting. Thoughts town? | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
The issue I have with your logic is that we don't know the setup and that mafia is not a game of pure probability. If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however. Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with. In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on. Discussion on when a no-lynch might help can be held off until such a situation presents itself. Sciberbia, I feel kind of bad for this because we(as mafia) shot you N1 of last game, but your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart. ##Vote: sciberbia As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better. I'm leaving for work, but I'll check the thread when I get back later. Give me some activity to come back to town. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I ran through the math and you are correct that we get 5 lynches. We only get 3 if we hit town every time. If there comes a time when we hit MYLO (mislynch and lose) then I could see NLing to get better odds. NLing any time before that reduces the chance that our (possible) medic is actually useful to us. I still stand by the fact that no-lynching D1 is a really bad play, but if we hit MYLO I won't automatically be against it. I see now what you were saying. Since you have pointed out the flaws in my logic... and math, I will hereby ##UnVote: sciberbia Apologies. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On May 31 2012 19:54 s0Lstice wrote What are your thoughts on Superouman and Unforgiven_ve Milton? We need more out of Superouman for sure. If he keeps lurking then we have to decide if we bite the bullet and lynch the lurker now or later. Same goes for Ange777. I hope it isn't a problem, but you never really know until you get deep in the game. As to my thoughts on Unforgiven I'm a bit confused. First he states he's against bandwagons and then in the very same post states he's saving his vote for the very end of the day cycle. I'm not sure what he's trying to say, but why would he directly contradict himself in his own post? I'm thinking perhaps a language issue. The intent of his last sentence, asking for town leadership, seems strange as well. Although with that sentence it's easier to extrapolate some sort of scum logic. He might be seeing if he can get some of the town to follow one or two confirmed townies, that way when mafia shoots those townies at night all is chaos and the scum can blend in. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Cattivik/Vivax is my top scum read as of this moment. Both Golden and heist have elaborated most of the reasons he seems scummy so I won't repeat them. There is one possible scumslip by him that I think they missed though. ---snip Sciberbia is the most active poster so far, also he's not promoting a NL, he's questioning day1 lynch. Whatever, I'm pretty sure he's clean, no mafia would go for the first post in a newbie game. That said, I'm pretty sure Miltonkram is one of us aswell, although I think he makes a mistake pointing the finger at one of the most active in here. O.Golden_ne posted nicely already aswell. Notice how in this section of his post he just points out the three most active/content filled posters at the time. He may be trying to buddy up to those he thinks might be the most influential in the thread. I did the same thing in my last game when I was scum. His attack on Eishi_Ki is just bad. Looks like scum floundering to me. The attack looks more like he's trying to say, "hey, look at me! I'm doing something that should make me look pro-town!" rather than actually helping the town. I'm off to class for a bit, but I'll check back in a few hours from now. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 01 2012 05:38 Superouman wrote: Since it's getting late in europe and not much time remaining, i'll vote now ##Vote sciberbia You do realize we have another 24 hours before lynch correct? If you really see something in sciberbia's play that you find suspicious make a case about it. Don't just throw his name out there. Ummm yeah i should talk more but the thing is that i don't know what to say, this is kind of a blind pick for now, but i am always suspicious of people who talk too much at the beginning ---snip And considering your lynch logic, what if all the mafia already talked, you would just kill townies and make mafia's life easier. For the first day, i think we should lynch one of the lurkers. They maybe think if they do nothing, they will pass under the radar. Or if they are townies, well... they should just have said something to be less suspect Do you see the contradictions here? First you say not to talk too much and then you throw out a useless hypothetical situation. Afterwards you encourage lynching lurkers which is an extremely safe stance to take. How are we supposed to post? A lot? A little? These posts from you are not helping, and they are leaving us with very few stances to hold you to as the game goes along. All I've seen while looking through your filter has been one or two line posts with very little content to them. This can mean either lazy town or mafia trying to keep from committing to too much information. These contentless posts are just as bad as lurking. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
If you really are town, spend the time you would be using to defend yourself and post a decent case against a player or two. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler + Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished @Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. My suspicions on Vivax/Cattivik are still there and I'm not ignoring them. However I understand how difficult it is to post scumreads when it feels like half the town is tunneling you. If he feels like he needs to constantly defend his posts, he can't actually contribute to the town. I'd like to see when or if he tries to "help" the town before I'm ready to lynch him, that way we can tie him down to any stances he committs himself to and look at those stances later in the game. Also, how can you attack me for backing off of Vivax/Cattivik (which I have in terms of direct pressure, haven't in terms of suspicion) when you backed off of him at s0Lstice's behest? Trying to deflect pressure much (poorly I might add)? As for my statements on Unforgiven, it really feels like his case has developed because of the language barrier. Why else would he post something like this? + Show Spoiler + Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Such an obvious contradiction in his post seems like there are nuances he's trying to convey, but has a difficult time putting to words. For clarity's sake I don't think Unforgiven's case is very good. I think it's poorly conceived and that scum have jumped on it to give it more steam than it should ever have had. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I think you have a really good case against suki, but I need to reread it and go over the thread a few more times just to make sure it checks out. I think I have a case that may be even better though. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Ange777 I would like to draw everyone's attention to our prime lurking player Ange777. Logic dictates that a lurking townie would at least try to contribute in some way. With that in mind let's take a look at his posts. I can't think of any good reason for a no lynch. We might get scum today and without day 1 lynch the night 1 kill will be even more diffficult to analyse. He takes a very safe stance here, one that steps on no ones toes. Mostly fluff. Since I took the same stance and it's his first post I'll take it easy on him. Second post: I have been out all day and will only be back later. I'll catch up with the thread then! He only posts this after there has been several mentions of his name. If he's been out all day, how come he's back in the thread just a few hours after people have been threatening him? And to post that? Third post: Trying to catch up with the thread at 1:30 am is not that effective .... Out of the three players that already got a vote Unforgiven seems the most scummy. As townie your vote is always your strongest weapon for the scumhunt. I don't say that you should random vote other players but once you have a good case it is always good to push and vote it. Until now your play seems very safe, a lot of fluffy posts. But yes, I shouldn't be the one complaining when I am officially lurking. I even have to announce another day of lurking, but I promise some more (and BETTER!) action from me tomorrow before deadline! He pops into the thread shortly to bandwagon a case and post some pretty fluffy advice. Next he promises action near the deadline. Let me explain why his promises of action are scummy. Town don't play the game to keep from dying, they play the game to try and kill mafia. Scum play the game to stay alive. This is the key to analysis of his play. His second post is only after people have drawn focus to him. His third is useless and with that tantalizing promise of action. His promise seems like it's there to stave off pressure so that we distract ourselves with other cases and he can continue lurking without committing any information to the game. He is trying to stave off pressure and keep himself out of people's sights, a sign that he is actively lurking. I must also point out that superouman has drawn the most flak for his lurking style of play. If there are multiple lurkers, in this case Superouman and Ange777, a lurker lynch oftentimes benefits scum because they put their weight behind the lurker who is town. Knowing the pressure on superouman I'm inclined to lynch the other lurker because scum most likely have been trying to draw our attention to the wrong one. (I know I know. I pressured Superouman too.) The final and most damning piece of evidence is this, while he's been making excuses for lurking in this thread he's been active and contributing in TL Mafia LV. Seriously, check out the posting history on his profile and take a look. This is another sign that he has been actively attempting to lurk this game. If you see any flaws in my argument please point them out, but I think it's pretty ironclad. ##Vote: Ange777 | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Do you disagree with the other points I made about timing? What about my analysis of the content of his/her posts? What about the fact that scum may have been trying to derail our lynch to the wrong lurker? Don't just point out one point in my case and claim that you've refuted the entire thing. My entire case does not hinge on him/her being busy with two games at once even though I still think Ange777 is deliberately lurking. There is a difference between lurking because of time constraints and lurking with purpose. It's a difficult distinction to make but I think Ange is lurking with purpose. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Making the distinction between a townie that lurks and a scum that lurks comes entirely down to motivation. It's a difficult distinction to make, which is why I made such a lengthy post on it. The problem with a lurker is obvious, they are lurking. No, the problem with a lurker is they might be scum trying to fly under the radar. The way to spot scummy lurker play is by examining when that player enters the thread and for what reasons. Analysis can be made of lurker play, you just have to know what to look for. I think I made a good case and I stand by it. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 2 2012 00:44 suki wrote: ---snip I've also accused Milton of backing off of Cattivik, but what sticks out to me is that he has not shown any commitment to a scum read on a player, whereas I have. If I'm suspicious for being non-commital and political, I don't see why Miltonkram isn't much higher on the suspicion list. Really!? Have you been completely ignoring my last few posts? At this point I think you are deliberately misrepresenting me and it's really pissing me off. You're attempting to deflect pressure onto me. I've answered why I voted for sciberbia but you keep ignoring it. I just posted a case on why I think Ange777 is scum. While it is a case against a lurker I stand by it because I think it has merit. Let me outline why your play sticks out me: - Your defense largely consists of deflecting pressure to other players. - You've bandwagoned as sciberbia has pointed out. It's not in and of itself a scumtell, but don't deny that you have. - You've committed yourself to what is, in my opinion, a bad case. (Unforgiven) For the record, I will support a lynch of any of the four following players in order from most suspicious to least: Ange777, suki, Superouman, and Vivax. I would also like to point out suspicious players that I have not yet had time to analyze: s0Lstice- He posted quite a few questions in his first few posts while not taking any hard stances. He's also spent a great deal of time defending other players while not committing himself to solid reads, a possible(?) attempt at buddying. His major saving grace is he started the pressure on Unforgiven. Golden- Seems like he's just jumping on bandwagons. He did that in the last game and was green, but I can't afford not to be suspicious of his behavior based on meta. Note: I just noticed Ange777's post, but I already had this typed up so might as well post it. I was just reading through his/her posts in TL Mafia LV and it really does look like Ange's crunched for time. Ange777, give me some solid reads and contribution and I'll consider removing my vote. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Well shit, perhaps s0Lstice was right about you. Kind of frustrating that I made that huge case against you, but I have to admit when someone has actively contributed. If you are scum, you are now far less dangerous because you've committed strongly to your suspicions and made a case against a player. We can analyze the stances you've taken later on in the game. As for Superouman, he's made some very strange statements. I can't help but think that if he were communicating in the scum QT, they would have advised him not to make some of the confusing statements that he has. Superouman is a pure policy lynch as far as I'm concerned. Policy lurker lynches are helpful, but we don't gain nearly as much information from them. My new top lynch candidate is suki. He's seemed very suspicious of me, but he's ignored my rebuttals against him that I've posted. Why would he do that to, from what I can tell, one of his top 2 scumreads? I think he knows that his case against me is bad. Half of it is based on misrepresenting that I haven't responded to him or that I've taken a position that I haven't actually taken. You've earned this suki. If you flip red it's going to feel so good. ##unVote: Ange777 ##Vote: suki | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
It really sucks to see how many people weren't around before the deadline. How long has it been since Eishi_Ki, Golden and suki have been active? Really lame guys. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On June 2 2012 07:01 Vivax wrote: You said you changed your opinion=You don't suspect him while you actually still suspect him while he's being the main pusher of the suki case. You can't push the case while suspecting the one who started it. It's mafia play. It would be plain stupid by mafia to push a case against their own. Bullshit. Yes you can. Unforgiven may have posted his suspicion of suki first, but sciberbia has been the main force behind it. A mafia pushing a case against a mafia is called "bussing" and it happens all the freaking time. You are posting misleading information and needlessly tunneling Ange777 even while she is trying to post cases beneficial to the town. Please stop. | ||
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