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On June 09 2012 11:47 s0Lstice wrote:
Ironic that Xatalos even cautioned against connection assumptions on day 1. Good advice! Wish I had remembered.
Yep  Connections are really too WIFOM to base your reads on (Mafia can distance each other, defend each other, bus each other, push the same lynch, push different lynches... you never really know how they're connected!).
On June 09 2012 16:54 Miltonkram wrote:Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler +On June 09 2012 06:58 Miltonkram wrote:
Xatalos: Town- If you're asking me to believe that he's scum you're also asking me to believe that he made these plays. (I'm hypothetically referring to him as scum in this list)
- He started pressure on Unforgiven. This is a ballsy move. Putting follow up pressure on players is much more typical of scum play.
- He bussed heist D2 immediately after his scumbuddy, suki, got lynched. This is another really ballsy move.
- He immediately returned his pressure back to heist after our mislynch on Vivax. The fallout after a mislynch is a good time for scum to try and lay low hoping that voting patterns might incriminate another player. Xatalos did not allow this.
These are not common plays to make as scum. If he is scum then those plays were extremely risky. I just don't believe it. Xatalos, if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. You've made some tough calls. I approve of this post! xD Haha, I'm so happy all my risky plays paid off in the end! You have no idea how hard I facepalmed after I saw the endgame post XD Oh well, you live and learn. I think if we hadn't had 2 modkills town might have won. Not taking anything away from you Xatalos. I'm taking notes from you on how to play next time I get picked for scum. Really impressive play in my eyes!
Thanks  Although you should also note that I made mistakes earlier in the game: defended suki visibly (should have bussed in that situation), moderated the thread too much compared to real contributions (look at sciberbia or s0Lstice, they played town correctly), jumped too easily to switch from heist to Vivax (should have shown more commitment to my Mafia read on heist)... Don't make such mistakes and you should be good to go, haha
On June 09 2012 11:28 sciberbia wrote:
My somewhat brief, biased, and bitter thoughts on the game:
- 4 chances to lynch 3 mafia with no blue information. ~11% chance of winning with random lynches
- In retrospect, scum would have won easily if they just bussed each other a lot and gained townie cred
- We got really lucky by nailing suki day 1 and having both mafia try to defend him. This gave us a chance
- imo, using our one allowed mislynch on vivax was bad on our part. This is the only play I really regret and you could argue this lost us the game.
- finally (and narrowly) got heist for his scummy D1 play
- Xatalos did well to keep his filter looking reasonably townie. imo, the filter of golden/shiaopi looked far scummier and even miltonkram didn't look much more townie (if at all).
- Unforgiven was spot on with every single read and was the only reason we had any chance in the endgame
- Kill of unforgiven should have been given more thought on the last day. I think that completely refusing to analyze NKs is a mistake. All 3 NK's were quite telling this game.
Honestly I thought town played quite well. Only 2 mislynches even with no blue help. That's mainly why I'm frustrated by the loss. Not trying to take anything away from mafia - they played a fine game too.
Yeah - I was really surprised by how well the town played! Especially during Day 1, the discussion was extremely active and focused, compared to almost any other game I've played/seen. But the same can be said for Mafia - suki played extremely well for her first game of Mafia, heist played well despite having a long break from Mafia, and of course I managed to convince everyone ShiaoPi was Mafia and win the game xD Haha... Overall, I think this might be at least the newbie game of highest quality I've played/seen so far.
The sad part about this game was, as you said, the modkills and lurking by some players. Had Superouman and Eishi_Ki actually played the game they signed up for, there would have been an additional lynch to use on me after ShiaoPi flipped. BUT I think it's stupid to think like that. If we go to such a hypothetical situation, we could also imagine that suki not being offline for the end of Day 1 would have probably saved her from the lynch (or at least made it easier for us to coordinate and not be exposed like that). If heist hadn't been offline for most of the game (except right before deadlines, haha!!), we might have gotten another mislynch before I had to bus heist. So, it's (IMO) stupid to assume that if the players had been more active, town would have won in the end, since the same can be said for the activity of our Mafia team. All in all, if every player in the game had been active, I'm pretty certain suki wouldn't have been the Day 1 lynch (or at least the lynch wouldn't have exposed me and heist) and the game after that would have been VERY different in many ways.
Indeed, the night kills were very telling. It's good not to base your reads on them, but they should be taken into account at least.
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On June 10 2012 01:32 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2012 15:56 Release wrote:
Xatalos early game was poor. I thought it was him, Vivax and someone. But this is just my speculation from reading the first 20 pages. Quoted this because I agreed on Xatalos. Actually I helped coach town and scum this game, because I pinned Xatalos as scum during the first day and PMed him. It was superhard for town on the last day because ShiaoPi's reads were just so unfortunate and it's really hard to look beyond that. austin - I'd love to talk some with you at some point. You remind me of myself when I started a couple of months back - logical and trying hard but not quite getting the reads. it'll get better though, so stick around ^^ unforgiven - your play was terrible despite being correct. Being correct is only part of the battle, the rest of it is convincing the rest of town by making good cases, and in this you failed utterly and miserably.
Don't brag too much, hey You only figured out I was scum because you helped me in a previous game as town... And you also thought Unforgiven_ve was scum... I agree though on Unforgiven_ve, good reads aren't everything, you need much more!
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On June 10 2012 01:51 marvellosity wrote:tsk, well he'd said something that i thought was awful (can't rememer now). yes, it was merely a meta read on you, not claiming elite scumhunting skillz or anything
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On June 10 2012 08:46 sciberbia wrote:
@Xatalos, miltonkram
I did explicitly think to myself during N1 that it was a mistake not to force Xatalos to give more defense of suki. When Xatalos said, " I got the feeling suki's been pretty focused on hunting Mafia", I thought Xatalos was wrong, because suki's filter didn't look very interested in hunting mafia to me. I should have told Xatalos to carefully read suki's filter and elaborate on the defense.
The way things went down, I thought it most likely that Xatalos didn't seriously study suki's filter, and simply made a wrong read. So I didn't hold it against him too much.
Even with hindsight, I think Xatalos's filter looks slightly townie overall. So kudos Xatalos. Next time we'll set your limit at 2 bad reads. Then you get lynched :p
I might have made a mistake by playing such a townie Mafia... Now when I'm really town, everyone will assume I'm Mafia anyways! xD Damn........
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On June 10 2012 09:21 sciberbia wrote:
@Xatalos
What are you complaining about? If you're town, all you have to do is identify all the scum, and organize a lynch on each of them in turn. As long as you follow these simple instructions, we won't lynch you. Maybe we'll even allow you 1 bad read..
I'm doomed xD
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On June 10 2012 19:58 marvellosity wrote:
austin and especially sciberbia - you are bang on about the night kill.
Remember I told you about my newbie game austin? I got out of lylo almost purely by arguing about the night kill.
I can't emphasise enough how good sciberbia's post is this page. Night kills should always be kept in mind. They do lend themselves to wifom, but especially at the end they provide information. As he said, who would ShiaoPi kill if he were scum? Certainly not unforgiven. For that alone I would have lynched Xatalos.
To Xatalos - that's why I tried to suggest to you that you go with austin and not unforgiven. You claimed scum with your final night kill.
That's a good point in general, but doesn't really apply to this specific situation (in my opinion). I had intentionally urged Miltonkram and austinmcc to make their opinions clear before the night deadline - apparently to "help" them by having their opinions known before they might be killed, but I had a more sinister motive...
Once they had gone through the filters, read the cases, and finally formed their opinions (before Unforgiven_ve would be shot) they were set on lynching ShiaoPi as soon as the deadline passed. It didn't matter anymore that it wouldn't make sense for ShiaoPi to shoot Unforgiven_ve: they just dismissed it as WIFOM by ShiaoPi (meant to make them second-guess).
On the other hand, if they had waited until the deadline to form their final opinion, it might have gone differently. But since they both were online and willing to announce their lynch of choice *before* the night kill, I was pretty certain they wouldn't bend on their opinions anymore!
In this situation, it would make no sense to shoot austinmcc. Unforgiven_ve had already said he would be willing to vote for only me / austinmcc. There's no way he would have voted for ShiaoPi. If I had shot austinmcc, ShiaoPi and Unforgiven_ve would have immediately voted for me. I and Miltonkram would have voted for ShiaoPi. It would have been a stalemate with neither side attaining the majority.
Unforgiven_ve was extremely stubborn and wouldn't listen to any reasoning by me or Miltonkram. He wouldn't state any reasoning himself either: he would just vote for me and continue to post insults and random one liners. ShiaoPi would most certainly not vote for himself either in that situation. That leaves two options:
A) Miltonkram bends to the peer pressure and votes for me. I lose.
B) Miltonkram doesn't bend. The day ends with a no-lynch. I now must shoot Unforgiven_ve or lose, but Miltonkram will think twice as hard about the night kill compared to if I had just shot Unforgiven_ve earlier. I might win or I might lose, but the game takes a lot longer and my chance for victory is smaller. There's also a bigger chance that someone finds more scummy stuff about my filter and Miltonkram gets convinced I'm actually Mafia. Town has more time to discuss and consider the options.
Do you agree with the night kill now, marv?
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On June 10 2012 22:50 Vivax wrote:I'm kinda disappointed how ShiaoPi immediately gave up in the end tho. He didn't understand why I voted for myself at first, but at least I've tried to defend myself several times before doing so. He really had most responsibility there knowing that he's town. I'm not taking away credit from him since he posted a case against Xata before the unforgiven NK. But that NK had a lot of implications, and he resigned immediately and voted for himself without using the NK to push another case. Hard to tell if others would have switched their vote even with a super solid case. Everyone was convinced of a scum ShiaoPi in the end. Not blaming it on him alone, most of us made gross mistakes, but I kinda feel like town still stood a chance there 
On the other hand, Miltonkram and austinmcc would have been even more suspicious of ShiaoPi (if he had tried to WIFOM with the night kill, I mean). It was pretty much GG when Miltonkram and austinmcc made their opinions clear right before the deadline. After that, they were set on lynching ShiaoPi, and it would have required a massive blunder by me to lose... Pretty much
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On June 11 2012 02:31 sciberbia wrote:
Just thought of a simpler way to state this.
You guys basically made the following announcement to mafia
If unforgiven is NK'd we will lynch shiaopi
If milton is NK'd we will (quite possibly) lynch Xatalos
If you're going to actually announce this to mafia, you can't just blindly follow through on your promise or mafia will manipulate you like a puppet (this is what happened)
You either should have
A) as a group, decided on your final lynch before the NK
or more realistically
B) been unpredictable in how you analyzed the NK
or
C) not announce your reads before the NK
Option A was pretty much impossible in that situation. Unforgiven_ve would never listen to anyone other than himself, and Miltonkram was very convinced that ShiaoPi was Mafia. austinmcc might have been vulnerable to persuasion, but he was also pretty sure ShiaoPi was Mafia. There would be no consensus lynch with such radical differences in opinion.
Option B sounds very reasonable. Town would have probably won the game if it didn't condemn WIFOM and NK analysis as completely useless right away. This allowed us to kill our most dangerous opposers without fear. More importantly, not being so opposed to WIFOM would have made it impossible for me to win the endgame scenario. I considered shooting Miltonkram or austinmcc for WIFOM reasons, which would have made it much harder (or nearly impossible) for me to get ShiaoPi lynched... But I didn't really have to, because everyone hated WIFOM! Following a strict policy makes it so much easier to manipulate the game without fear of consequences.
Option C is... interesting. Although, realistically, not useful in this case. I already could tell from Unforgiven_ve's earlier posts that he would come after me instead of ShiaoPi, and both Miltonkram and austinmcc had made it clear that they linked heist&ShiaoPi as a potential Mafia team. They didn't really even need to post their reads before the deadline... I just urged them to do that in order to lock them even more into their set opinions. I agree, though, that if everyone said something like "okay, I won't speak anything during night to make the NK harder to choose", it would have made it harder for me to decide. Perhaps someone (austinmcc, specifically) had changed his opinion during the night...? Should I shoot him instead? But I would have still ended up shooting Unforgiven_ve, so only option B is really useful
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Overall, this was a game of very high quality (especially for a newbie game!). I doubt many towns (even ones consisting of veteran players) would *almost* win the game with no blue roles and only ONE mislynch to afford. I was most inspired by the play of sciberbia, s0Lstice and Ange777 - a nice balance of good reads and pro-town effort. austinmcc clearly put in effort, but his reads were always wrong The opposite was true for Unforgiven_ve, who had the best reads, but apparently didn't care about the game. suki deserves a special mention for playing so well for her first game.
A bit sad that so many were replaced/modkilled, but what can you do... Bad luck for town, and some bad luck for Mafia as well (suki offline at the most critical moment). Let's hope everyone is active in future games
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On June 11 2012 08:26 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
Note taken. From here on out I won't immediately discount evidence just because it's WIFOM. I'm still not sure I could have convinced myself that Xatalos was scum, but Unforgiven dying would have certainly given me more pause.
Do you think I should have appeared less certain during the final night cycle? At the time I was fairly certain of ShiaoPi but I still had a nagging suspicion about Xatalos. If I had made it less obvious that ShiaoPi was my target for the next day I could have forced a few decent cases/posts out of Xatalos. Do you think that would have been a better play on my part?
Yeah, it's a common trap to think someone is town and then ignore him. You should have put some pressure on me and gathered more evidence to determine if I'm really town. The lynch was obviously going to be between me and ShiaoPi, so the more discussion/information before the final decision, the better. If I was really town, I wouldn't have minded some additional pressure to prove my innocence.
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EPT
