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Newbie Mini XV - Page 2
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Just because we lynched and hit red does not mean that Unforgiven is clear of suspicion. Let's not forget that his original case against suki was not very good. Sciberbia was the actual driving force behind it. It could have been a weak "bus" attempt that Unforgiven hoped would gain him town cred. His play close to deadline was also appalling. My original read on him was bad/confusing town but he's getting closer and closer to scum territory. I'm off to work. Thanks for lifting my spirits with that lynch guys! | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Golden's play does remind me a lot of the way he played in NMM XIV and he flipped town. I don't think we can put too much faith in meta arguments. Golden's meta is a great meta if he rolled scum this game. I just think we need to take a look at how ShiaoPi plays this game out. I'd advocate disassociating his play with Golden's because I don't think anyone has a good read on him. I've got analysis of several players that I'm going to post right before the deadline. I don't want to post it earlier because it may give scum more information and help them choose their shot. I'll be back soon. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Unfortunately I have class during the two hours right before the deadline. The class often ends a little bit early so I was able to make it on just in time to make a quick post and see the lynch results. The case against heist is decent, but I'm not convinced. He was very reluctant to change his vote to suki. If scum go all in on a bussing attempt it's meant to take pressure off of themselves. If scum were to bus each other, I'd think they would try to attract more attention to the fact that they were voting scum in order to take pressure off of themselves, much like someone else I can think of (Unforgiven). I still need to reread s0Lstice's case on heist, so I'll go through the case and heist's filter again with an open mind. Let's look at Unforgiven's play. There were three main players pushing for suki's lynch: Sciberbia, Ange777, and Unforgiven. Of the three, which of them flaunted the fact that they voted for scum? Showing off that he voted for scum is not a play that helps town, it's a play to keep himself alive. Keeping oneself alive is scum motivation, that or he's town with a massive ego. I won't write off either possibility. Let's not forget that his case against suki was really flimsy. It's possible that he posted that case on actual scum in order to take pressure off himself, but also with the expectation that the case would be dropped. Time is running out so I need to get this out there in case I die. As we got closer to the lynch deadline, Vivax's points and posting got more and more nonsensical. It doesn't take a great leap of judgement to think that Vivax panicked as his scumbuddy got closer and closer to the chopping block. In my last game I remember how difficult it was not to panic whenever pressure was on me or my partner in scum. That may have happened with him. If I'm still alive come day post I still have a lot of work to do. I need to read through the filters more and try to map out accusations, counter-accusations, and defenses as they happened. I will post again when I feel I have a better handle on this game. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I'm putting together a larger case against him, but it's going to take me a little bit. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Thanks for playing Ange777! Despite being inactive most of D1, you really came back and contributed later on. Hopefully I'll get to play more games with you in the future. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
First post: Now I've read through the thread, and I must say... I'm pleasantly surprised. There's a lot of information to work with already at this point. There isn't a whole lot to comment on in this post besides patterns in his play that started here and continued on throughout the majority of his D1 content. Notice how most of the content is on policy. Also note that he points out a lot of names but never directly pressures anyone besides lurkers and spends a lot of time coaching other players on their play. All of this helps him post content that is slightly beneficial to the town without posting much in terms The post I had the hardest time figuring out was the very first post in the thread by sciberbia: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 07:20 sciberbia wrote: Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion. about me+ Show Spoiler + I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia. what you can expect from me+ Show Spoiler + Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around. what i ask of you guys+ Show Spoiler + 1) make reading the thread a priority 2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion 3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline. to lynch or not to lynch?+ Show Spoiler + Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated. If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide. Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play. what I think we should focus on right now+ Show Spoiler + The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on: 1) Lynch or NL? 2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced? Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia? At first glance, I thought sciberbia was an overeager townie trying to direct the game to his liking. It seemed unlikely for a Mafia (especially a beginner Mafia) to put himself into the spotlight right away. However, when I looked closer at the content of this post, I wasn't so sure anymore. Basically the "meat" of this post was speculation about the setup and suggesting a no-lynch. A no-lynch would just give Mafia more breathing room and a free pass to do whatever they want for today. What's more, Mafia would then shoot the most dangerous player in their eyes, and the lurkers / distractive players would of course live on. This would be an ideal situation for Mafia to start day 2 with: a good town player dead, but every suspicious/lurking player still alive. The pool of lynch candidates would be bigger in comparison, and Mafia could hide much easier. So, was sciberbia pushing Mafia agenda all along? For a moment I thought so, but looking also at his later posts, I don't think a beginner Mafia could fake such complicated theories and thought processes. Maybe if he was a veteran, but even then, why would he risk himself in the first place? Either he's a great actor or genuinely wanting to help town. Right now I'm leaning on town, especially since this is a newbie game. Occam's razor: the simplest explanation is usually the right one. Another player I noticed was Cattivik. So far he has been analyzing the game, posting reads, calling out lurkers - all in all, playing for town's win condition. I didn't like him giving sciberbia a free pass just because he was the "first to post", but disregarding that, his filter looks good. Miltonkram, why did you vote for sciberbia so fast? Do you really want to lynch him or is it just a throwaway vote? I'm not comfortable with lynching him at all, especially since most people haven't even posted anything. s0Lstice, you have been wishy-washy and cautious so far. Take a hard stance on something or you'll end up as a lynch candidate sooner or later. Suki, unforgiven_ve, Superouman, Eishi_Ki: start posting as soon as possible. Every moment spent lurking is a victory for Mafia. I'm going to be offline for a while; start posting about your Mafia reads, especially s0Lstice and those who have yet to post. 2nd Post: + Show Spoiler + In this post he put some decent pressure on Unforgiven. By this time Unforgiven had played confusingly and explained his difficulty with language. I won't discount the fact that it would have taken considerable guts as scum to put pressure on that early, but it's possible Xatalos sensed a weak player that he was confident he could get a mislynch(?) on. On May 31 2012 13:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Sorry, i missed this, im REALLY against bandwagons, specially at the last hours of the day, i think on day 1 we dont have much information to work on, but we need to have our eyes open for a mafia slip, yes, lets pressure people, if they evade/lurk/start attacking other people whitout a real reason, then thats our day 1 candidate. Also, i like to save my vote to the last hours of the day, mafia is always much more active at day last hours just to see if they can change the decision or who is going to die. If someone wants to be "town leader" please take all this in account, im all in for some kind of town guidance and not a FFA f**kfest. Something feels off about Unforgiven_ve. His contributions so far are "safe" generalities to say about the game. In addition, he wants to move the spotlight away from himself by asking for a town leader to easily sheep, and then he even says that he won't vote until the last hours (when it's extremely easy to bandwagon and blend in as Mafia). As things stand, I'm ready to go for a Unforgiven_ve lynch. However, I want to see your response first, Unforgiven_ve. You better impress with your next post or your filter looks really bad already. 3rd post: I also want to hear from s0lstice and Superouman. Superouman hasn't yet posted anything, and s0lstice's filter is pretty much worthless so far. Once again he coached players on their reads. He also posted a small defense of another Cattivik/Vivax. This all seems fairly pro-town but it doesn't actually promote scumhunting.+ Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 16:47 Eishi_Ki wrote: @Sciberbia thanks for the discussion generator, but I'm sure it's apparent that the town majority heavily favors a Day 1 lynch and we should proceed to do so. So enough about policy, I'm curious as to your your thoughts on the other players and suspicions. Just the use of 'we' and 'us' to refer to the townsfolk. Similar to Hollywood'ing in poker, just trying to sell it a bit too much. It caught my eye is all. It's not good to get stuck on details and semantics. Look for the Mafia motivations behind someone's posting, Eishi_Ki. Mafia rarely make stupid mistakes such as this, since they have to be careful about their every post. So far I feel pretty good about Cattivik being town, given his general attitude and style. Again, occam's razor: if someone plays like town should, they are more likely town. Regardless of some details like what specific words they use. 4th post has to do with Superoman. At this point everything that has to do with Superouman is confusing so there's very little I can take away from it. 5th post: s0Lstice, I'm impressed with your recent posts (especially compared to your earlier posts). Keep up the good work. He pointed out a lot of names once again. Spreading one's focus to a lot of players seems like a pretty decent mafia tactic. Here it made him look like he was posting a lot more content than he was. Now that s0Lstice flipped town we can look back and see if anyone posted towards him like they knew he was town. Xatalos's compliment towards him might be an attempt at buddying.Unforgiven_ve, I'm still waiting for you to post something useful. Same with Superouman. Ange777, Suki, you two need to step up and do something. Your filters are pretty much empty. Cattivik, Eishi_Ki, could you two look outside of each other and tell some other Mafia reads? It's distractive to get succumbed into a duel, especially this early. One of you might be Mafia (probably not both), but even so, it's more useful to not just tunnel one player. sciberbia, Heist, O.Golden_ne, I also want to hear some more from you. I have to stop my chronological analysis here because I will be leaving for work soon. Part 2 of my analysis will be up when I come back. I'd like to leave you guys with my thoughts on a couple issues. D1 lynch patterns: The D1 lynch was a very close affair. If Unforgiven is town, scum had quite a bit of momentum going for a mislynch. It only became obvious that suki was the consensus lynch in the last couple of hours before the deadline. It seems we, the town, inadvertently set up a pretty decent scum trap. Scum only had good reason to switch to suki after it was clear that Unforgiven wouldn't get lynched. With that in mind Vivax, Xatalos and heist look pretty damn scummy. I've already stated that I'm uncomfortable with a heist lynch, something about the case against him feels like there is scum involved. I'll have to look through the filters again and find exactly what that is. I will actively support a lynch on either Xatalos or Vivax. Lurkers: We have had a ton of inactivity N1/D2. With that in mind Xatalos has only pointed out the inactive players that suit his purpose and line of play. He points out heist even though heist has been pretty active attacking Vivax and defending himself. I find that at best misguided and at worst outright scummy. Eishi_Ki, Superouman, please get in here and contribute! | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I agree with your advice on the way our (possible) blue players should play. We should be wary of any claims however. If we're in the setup without blues we won't have a counter-claim if scum should try to claim. See you guys later! | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I am not ignoring your accusations towards me. Due to some severe time constraints I've had to prioritize what I want to get done. The case on you seems quite a bit more important. Looking back I didn't immediately realize that your accusations are almost the exact same accusations that s0Lstice and suki directed at me. I responded to s0Lstice here Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished and I responded to suki here. ---snip @ suki My apologies towards sciberbia were an attempt at self deprecating humor. Unfortunately there is no humor font, just as there is no sarcasm font here on the internetz. While my response to your question was not directly aimed at you, I did answer s0Lstice's question on my flip-flop of sciberbia here+ Show Spoiler + Yes s0Lstice, it does remind me of a certain game that happened very recently. In fact, last time it was you who was involved in my suspicion. I'm still suspicious of sciberbia, just like I'm suspicious of everyone else in this game, but my read on him was that he was trying to divide the town into a semi-useless discussion on policy. As far as I can tell he wasn't. He was trying to show a non-typical line of play for the town that could also improve our chances. I also must admit that his statement about 5 lynches confused me. I was looking at the number of mislynches we were allowed to make and saw his numbers were off. I didn't think it all the way through, he meant the maximum number of lynches we could have this game. Goal #1: Pressure sciberbia/get a response from him. Accomplished Goal #2: Prove I'm a complete dumbass. Accomplished which I felt also adequately answered your question. You keep pestering me about ignoring you when your question+ Show Spoiler + @Miltonkram I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game. has been answered, just not directly at you. If you actually read through my posts you'd notice that the question had been answered. You are trying to misrepresent me and I really don't appreciate it. If there is anything in my response that you are unsatisfied with, feel free to ask me about it. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
---snip On June 04 2012 21:23 Xatalos wrote: Also, what about my response to your suspicions? You haven't addressed that at all. I want to see if it was a misguided reaction to me calling you out or a deflection to move attention away from yourself. I'm not entirely satisfied with your defense of your actions. You deflect attention away from the points I was trying to make about you, mainly that your filter has a lot of filler content (e.g. lists of town reads, coaching players, policy discussion). Filler content is fine early on, but as we get later into the game it actively distracts from scumhunting all the while appearing like you're contributing more than you are. Does that make sense? Perhaps I didn't make those points strongly enough. I really do feel like there is a case to be made against you. I find it odd that heist and Vivax are the ones who've gotten the most flak for their vote switches and people have been content to ignore you. Moving on to real D2 lynch candidates. I don't support the case on heist. If the option is between a no lynch or him I will choose to add my vote to him, but I think Vivax is the stronger case. I can't believe that people seem to have taken his comments on the s0Lstice night kill seriously. And guess who his case was: heist. -_- This is exactly what scum would say if they were trying to promote a mislynch based on a night kill. If heist is scum, he shot s0Lstice to reduce pressure on himself. If Vivax is scum, he shot s0Lstice to make it look like heist was trying to reduce pressure on himself. This degenerates into WIFOM really fast, but it seems that some of the town have given the point credence. Other than that Vivax's defense has not been great and has been centered around how active he is. This reminds me of Eishi_Ki's comments on "Hollywooding" in poker. What are some of the traits that define Vivax's play? Hyper-aggresiveness, activity, and almost complete assurance in some fairly weak reads. My theory is that he came into the game with just such a playstyle in mind, making himself the opposite of the typical scummy player. I think he has overdone it by taking it to an extreme. All of us townies have felt doubt in our reads, correct? As town, we are each dealing with a game of incomplete information. Vivax switched votes quite a bit toward the D1 deadline all the while saying, "I know I'm right, I know I'm right!" This is not the way a townie would play. A town player would admit to possibly being wrong and/or convinced of a better case. It all reeks of attempting to keep up a facade. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##Vote: Vivax | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
GG Vivax. Sorry bro. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
While reexamining my thoughts, I realized that I had turned a blind eye to heist's play. Most of his opinions lined up with mine and I was pretty damn sure Vivax was scum. Now that Vivax flipped town I think heist is our best possible D3 lynch. If I'm alive come day cycle I'll explain my thoughts in full. This next theory is pretty fucking crazy and I don't expect anyone to take it seriously unless heist turns out to be a mislynch. There is a small chance that sciberbia and Unforgiven are scum. Imagine this line of play for a scum team, two of you bus another player D1 and hope to ride free of suspicion for the rest of the game. I know it seems pretty out there but if there is anyone who could pull it off, I have enough respect for sciberbia's play to think he might have orchestrated it. This has been a nagging thought in the back of my mind for a while. I don't think this is how it went so I'll only seriously entertain the notion if/when we hit LYLO. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##Vote: heist | ||
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