EPTOn May 07 2012 14:56 Cephiro wrote:
Please do present evidence as to why that may be the case.
Please do present evidence as to why that may be the case.
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Cephiro's filter
Liar Game Mini Mafia - Page 6
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slide A: Cephiro's filter | ||
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On May 07 2012 16:28 Cephiro wrote: Possibly. If you personally guarantee that you will take a look at them objectively, I am fairly sure I can share a read or two with detailed backup, maybe even a case. what the fuck kind of guarantee is that if you're town you'll scumhunt, if you're anything else you'll continue to be a useless prick | ||
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who cares? It's not like your town play has suddenly morphed into you being a complete ass, this is absurd. No townie would make such conditionals on his play unless he purposely was playing against his wincon. Your wincondition is to find scum and kill them if you're town. If you're making these types of conditional statements as town I honestly see no reason to ever play with you again | ||
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On May 07 2012 17:10 Cephiro wrote: So explain me why I should even bother to make a public case to convince anyone if the reaction I get is "Insert random herpderp.gif + /IGNORE LIST SCUM LOL"? There are several ways to play towards ones wincondition, so stop bitching about that. It's not like one way is magically the most optimal in every case. At the moment I do not see a single reason why I should take any advice from you during this game. @ syllo: Very well, I'll PM you later. "why should I bother making a case" if you're town the answer to that question should be fucking clear as day Not to mention you haven't even made a case to begin with, so I have no clue where you're getting this "insert random herpderp.gif" bullshit from although it is fun to watch you flail. It's probably the only reason I can't resist replying to your pathetic posts | ||
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I was right about BC LOLOLOL | ||
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I'll be voting according to it (sorry; not much time today for me.) | ||
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On May 08 2012 10:14 Cephiro wrote: Lol what? You think I think Palmar is town? Couldn't be more wrong. His whole filter is a bunch of bullshit worse than mine. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/yZHST.gif) | ||
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#1, Cephiro claimed that he was NOT going to vote Sheth. This should have made it apparent that he was going to vote either meapak or chaoser. I told gonzaw that it made no sense to split votes in a situation where you think scum are going to try to influence the vote. I told him you either avoid influencing the lynch at all so that scum simply out themselves, or you put all five of your votes on a singular person. At the time I used meapak as the example because I thought he was the most likely to be town out of the 3. (I basically considered chaoser and sheth about even to flip scum and meapak more likely to be town) However, as I was not around about 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the lynch (my final started at 19:00 PDT) I didn't see what meapak and cephiro posted, and I had already sent in my votes anyway. On May 08 2012 10:14 Cephiro wrote: As per Sheth's own request, I will not put any votes on him. Do what you wish with this information. I will try to answer the PMs I've got as soon as possible. Here's where we basically know Cephiro will put all his votes on either chaoser or meapak On May 08 2012 11:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Hello everyone, I just realized I can't vote WBG so I'm giving my votes to katina. In interest of full disclosure sheth told me he put all his votes on me. and here we know because meapak is receiving 5 cephiro is almost certain to put 5 on chaoser. This should've made it clear that Sheth would die if he was town because if he wasn't it would take at least two scum to out themselves in order for him to live. Had gonzaw put his 5 votes on sheth at this point (knowing both meapak and chaoser would get 5) we would've triple lynched. Sorry for not making my instructions explicit enough. On May 08 2012 12:59 Cephiro wrote: You're hilarious. Although you are right in one sense which I'm surprised people haven't still realised. If the majority tries to work together, all it requires is one weak link and the results can be controlled to almost any extent by the minority. Basically, the more you all agree to vote in unison, the more powerful my votes are in deciding whom is left last. Unless I fall to majority myself, to a certain degree I'm having the final word in what happens. in other words, you're the reason Sheth died. Do you even read your own fucking posts? | ||
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I suppose I should've just gambled and told gonzaw to vote sheth (since cephiro wouldn't) but that would've been rash and if I was right about meapak and as cephiro voted chaoser, it would've resulted in meapak dying (same result if meapak is town) | ||
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On May 08 2012 13:27 Cephiro wrote: Yes I do. And I know very well that "the final decision" was in my hands. The fun thing here is, no-one else but me is ready to take responsibility for the actions of town. You wanted Sheth dead, I didn't mess it up, so now you can go all out tunnelling that I was the one that caused his death. Well guess what, if you had wanted to save him, you could have just voted for him, but no, you all working together wanted him to die. That is a fact. Now if there are any players left but me that are capable of thinking for themselves instead of being led by these scumbags, I'd recommend you to take a closer look at the players who pushed for VE & Sheth to be killed. BC was simply a bus by his teammates as it was the general consensus that he would die, trying to save him would have been much more risky. What they tried instead was buddy with a bad looking townie (me), and try to take me down, counting on getting votes from me. And even in the case that failed, I would look bad for trying to save a scum. yes, I wanted sheth dead. But I wanted chaoser dead too. In fact, I wanted ALL THREE to die because there's no way all three of them are town. So yes, you did fuck that up, regardless of what you may think. It's okay though, because as soon as you are in the majority again there will be no BC to save you. And I will ensure that you will die, as there will be no pesky school to get in my way. | ||
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On May 08 2012 13:31 Cephiro wrote: So you clearly have knowledge and control of the vote situation, but you refuse to take any responsibility? I say not a coward town, I say scum. you still can't read apparently. | ||
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I cannot be right about everything and I need different opinions in order to find scum. The game feels "too easy" because no one is doing anything, so there's an inherent bias in wanting to kill the people who are the most useless/anti town. At this point since that's almost everyone I'm starting to go insanely paranoid. | ||
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On May 08 2012 13:42 Cephiro wrote: So you admit that you wanted to kill more townies again? Not the first time. Let's assume we lynched all three of them and one turned out to be scum. 2 for 1. Current player ratio: 8:3:2. You do realize we can't keep doing such trades, as the town will just lose more and more of the little power we have if we do that? Assuming we managed to lynch all three and got 1 scum: 6:2:2 in optimal scenario. 6:3:1 in the worse one. If it went to 6:2:2, both scumteams could constantly vote 1:1. Which means: Min/Max 2:4 - Town 1:1 - Scum A 1:1 - Scum B 50 total votes, 50/6 rounded up = 9 votes for safety. Town has 30 votes available to divide between 4 players, effecively 7,5 votes per player, which is not enough to save anyone for sure. Doing an optimal split we would get 8/8/7/7 as the possible high risk, high reward situation, as no-one is safe but unless the scum votes line up perfectly it should have everyone safe. Worst case, two more town down. With a safe split of 9/9/9/3, at least 3 town will be safe for sure, but one is basically guaranteed to die. What I am saying is, we can't afford to lose multiple townies as soon even with optimal voting we are not guaranteed to be able to lynch scum. Then we are very close to having lost the game. Of course, the scum factions have to eliminate each other still, which gives us slightly more room for mistakes, but doing mass-lynches at this time would be suicidal. your entire assumption falls apart when you realize that the basic assumption can be wrong and that even if two of them were town, if all 3 died that opens windows into finding OTHER scum. The rest of your post is just total horse shit because it assumes that 2 of them were townies, and that only the ratios matter. | ||
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at any rate I have no idea why I am bothering to argue with you. The fact remains that as long as the people we want to kill remain alive, we cannot progress into finding other scum because we have next to no pressure on them. It all basically comes down to luck who is on the chopping block, and they'll always have immune friends in the minority pool who can save them. It's basically a race against the clock; either we get a set number of correct lynches in (and to do this we at all times need to know ALL of the players who are most likely to flip scum, as we have no way of controlling who ends up in the majority really) or we don't. That means every single opportunity that we get matters. VE screwed up the first one by saving sandro and now sandro has been in the minority twice in a row. We got the second one alright. The third one was messed up because of me, albeit there were circumstances for me out of my control (obviously I'm not going to skip a school final just to get a scum lynched in a forum mafia game) If you were town you would accept that in order to move on from this stalemated situation we would need to kill our prime suspects. If you're town and you continue to be antiprogress you'll just make yourself look like an ass postgame. I'm completely fine with that, and as you are too I'm still pretty sure you're not town. The discrepancy between your behavior here and in DFM2 is just too great for you to be town here, unless your play has degraded so far that you can't actually reason your way out of a paper bag. | ||
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On May 08 2012 13:48 Cephiro wrote: True, I did not cover all the possibilities. But the chances of lynching 2 or 3 scum out of 3 persons on a mass lynch is highly unlikely, so I provided the best possible still likely-to-happen scenario. No it's not. You don't even base this argument on anything. The likelihood of lynching two scum out of three if you choose all three players completely randomly is pretty low, but when all three of those players are almost universally considered to be scum the likelihood gets multiplied many times over. On May 08 2012 13:48 Cephiro wrote: I do not believe that you can currently correctly decide other players alignments based on someone flipping, as you have been wrong so many times already. At no point have I said only the ratios matter, but they are crucial information in specific situations. You're just fear mongering based on known information. That's a scum tactic. There is almost no way you would say that I have been wrong "many times already" when there have only been two town flips. I have been right 1 time out of 3. That's better than you, as you've been right...well, never. If you want to base this shit on known information then clearly my track record is infinitely better than yours, since you've defended a flipped scum. | ||
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THAT is why we have been calling you scum, because when you are town you do not do that. In fact at one point you accused me of tunneling when I had merely made my second post that even addressed you. At that point everything you've been saying has screamed scum agenda, since in every post you make at least one gross (and often illogical) exaggeration, usually rooted in some sort of fear mongering. | ||
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On May 08 2012 14:03 Cephiro wrote: This is just bullshit. You've been universally wrong twice, right once so far. Looks to me that the likelihood just gets divided by many times over. AND YOU'VE BEEN WRONG EVERY SINGLE TIME. I'm done arguing with you. You're scum. You're not interested in the objective truth. You're merely interested in grossly exaggerating, misleading, and disrupting based on false assumptions and logical fallacies. | ||
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On May 08 2012 14:08 Cephiro wrote: I'VE BEEN RIGHT EVERY SINGLE TIME UNLIKE YOU, LEARN TO READ. On May 03 2012 15:16 Cephiro wrote: I'd say there's easily at least 3 mafia in that list. Do you really think that there were 4 mafia in the majority yesterday? Please.... I can understand your town reads on syllo and Katina but I have no idea how you find BC scum when you see gonzaw and wbg as town. -_- On May 04 2012 17:01 Cephiro wrote: Few random facts: 1) You're not getting me lynched today. 2) You're not getting BC lynched today. 3) You need to get your head checked if you think I'm scum. On May 04 2012 17:45 Cephiro wrote: Nothing to discuss about, it's another bad lynch on a townie, just like the earlier one on VE. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL | ||
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