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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Both teams could have shot at Ace and Foolishness, but maybe there was a medic save or a vet hit in one of those nights? Seems unlikely though, considering 6 VTs flipped yet no blue was killed yet, but both teams shooting both Ace and Foolishness seems even more unlikely. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=333034&user=53783 | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
No, last night wbg didn't tell me anything about any plans for today, or about Palmar being scum or anything else. I'm confused about it too, I don't know if he forgot, did it on purpose or hell maybe MZ is lying about it and somehow forged 100000 PMs between him and wbg or something. Here is the last PM I got from wbg: + Show Spoiler [wbg PM] + my example of putting 5 on meapak was merely an example. When meapak announced to the thread that he was receiving 5 from sheth it should have been apparent that you would not need to put votes on him. Cephiro had already said he wasn't putting votes on Sheth. That's when the "put votes on one person to influence the lynch" kicks in. Cephiro knew the three people we were trying to kill. If he says he's not voting sheth then that suggests he's okay with sheth dying (i.e. cephiro and sheth are not connected). When meapak says sheth is giving him 5 votes that automatically means sheth is receiving 0 and cephiro is putting 5 on chaoser. it is at that point that sheth becomes most likely to flip town out of the 3 and you would put 5 on him. Sadly meapak posted that almost half an hour into my final. I sent my votes in at 10:30 KST and he posted it at 11:30 KST. meh. At least we've eliminated one person and we know chaoser is still very likely to be scum. I'm still suspicious of sloosh as well. I'd really like MZ to tell me if wbg said anything else to him. Or maybe someone else knows about this too and can share it. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On May 10 2012 06:12 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Alright I fucked up with Palmar. I thought his plan was retarded and since he's put zero effort into this game I assumed he was scum. I reread his filter and realized that he actually wants to kill the same people I do. For clarity's sake, here's the PM from Bugs that put made me think Palmar is scum. Also for those wondering, WBG never told gonzaw why Palmar was scum, so that link is gone.+ Show Spoiler + Original Message From wherebugsgo: Thanks for this, it's very useful. I have an idea, but I'm going to wait on it. In fact I'm going to tell gonzaw and syllo, so that if I die tonight they will know what I think. based on this vote pattern, though, I think Palmar is scum. I will explain it to syllo and gonzaw and if I die tonight they will make the results public. If I don't die I'll do it myself. The reason I'm not telling you now is because I want to play it safe. I want to see if the trend I see continues. Based on what I'm seeing I'm sure it will because it is nearly impossible for that type of trend to be purely accidental. There's also a handy spreadsheet in there, bugs and I used it to flesh out voting patterns. Sadly, I'm really not sure who to put down as scum in place of Palmar. We'll still go through on the plan I set forward earlier today, we've still got plenty of targets to work with, it just means that I'm gonna need to go back and look through my townies to figure out which one of them is scum Palmar I'm sorry, I jumped to conclusions and now I'm slightly fucked. Since your reads are basically mine, who do you think is the last scum? So wbg didn't really give you the "magic pattern" thing that supposedly makes Palmar scum? Okay Meapak, do you have another analysis of Palmar's play that isn't just "his reads are basically mine"? Remember, you put sandroba, Wiggles and Palmar as the same scum team. I don't see much mention of sandroba on Palmar's filter, much less of Wiggles. What exactly do you think contradicts this? Also I agree, Wiggles is scum (cba to make a case, I already posted thoughts and shit on PMs, but Meapak's case sums it up nicely). What I found very odd about Wiggles is how he went full throttle against Cephiro on D1/N1 I think, even calling him scummy and his behaviour idiotic and stuff, but then he goes and says he doesn't want him lynched, and then even ignores him and just says he thinks he's "bad town" and never mentions him again. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Also: Sloosh, can you tell my why exactly WBG was hesitant in calling MZ scum? I'd like to know if I have a reason to think MZ is just wrong, or if I need to consider that he could be scum, too. Wait, you say you'll just sheep wbg's read then? You are even worse than prphlz. Why do you need wbg's words for there to be a reason for you to think MZ is scum? Can't you read his filter or PM him to find out? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=319120&user=99050 | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On May 10 2012 08:12 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Where did I say that I'm just going to sheep WBG's read? I asked if there's a reason for thinking Meapak is town. Sloosh is implying that there was something that happened in secret/PM land that gave WBG a reason for thinking Meapak is town. It's either something with role, and his actions would show he's town, or it's something he said that made WBG think he's town. I'd like to see what it is to see if I draw the same conclusion as WBG or not, as I obviously don't know about it yet. I also don't see why it can't be put in the thread. Thanks for putting words in my mouth and ascribing motives to me, though. I thought you asked sloosh for reasons why Meapak was suspicious. Why exactly do you think Meapak is scum then? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Still, Palmar/Wiggles/chaoser are in it though, so it's not a total failure. I'm trying to organize the votes as well, so if you are going to vote please claim your votes to me. I'll share the spreadsheet with few people though, so don't expect to see it here. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Meapak check your PMs. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
1)Being neutral about the lynch, and just asking some things about Meapak To: 2)Wishy washy stance on Palmar On May 10 2012 14:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Right now there's 6 town and 5 scum. I'm a mislynch, so I propose we kill Palmar today, since I feel best about him being scum at this point. I don't think we can multi-lynch effectively right now. We have people who are supposed to get lynched as soon as they hit the majority, so they can screw with a multi-lynch without any fear, essentially. Also, we're at the point where we can't unnecessarily kill any townies, or we lose control of the lynch more than we already have. It's getting to the point where scum will have to shoot the other scum team, or they'll risk losing in a king-maker scenario where town gets to pick who wins, which I'm sure would be unsatisfactory, or to pure numbers of the other team if too much KP hits the town or town mislynches too many at once and gets their numbers wiped out. So, they should keep that in mind when they send in kills tonight. Then to: 3)Being fully convinced Palmar is scum and making a huge case against him? Why is it that only now, when you are in danger of dying, that you actually make a case and take a strong stance on someone? It didn't take you too long to convince yourself that Palmar is scum and make a case against him, so why couldn't you do it before? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On May 11 2012 04:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote: First, I didn't make posts about the lynch, because we didn't have the majority yet. There's no point in making a case on Palmar if he's not going to be able to get lynched. The post you linked to, is my first post after the majority is revealed, where I could actually choose someone who's able to be lynched. So, I'm not being neutral about the lynch, I'm just waiting to know who I can lynch. If you actually read my last post, I was suspicious of Palmar last night phase already, so it isn't like this is new. Next, how is saying "I feel best about him being scum at this point." and that we should kill him a wishy-washy stance? It seems like basic reading comprehension, but please tell me how you think saying that is "wishy-washy"? "I feel best about" means that he's my strongest scum-read for lynch candidates, and saying we should kill him, means exactly that. So, there's no leap between saying that and my last post, unless you're not paying any attention to what's going on. That post says I think Palmar is scum and I want to lynch him, and my last post gives my reasons. On day 1, I wanted to lynch VE, I did so. On Day 2, I wanted to lynch BC, and did so, and on Day 3 I wanted to kill Sheth, and did so as well. I'm not sure how helping kill who I want dead is not taking a strong stance. My votes make my stance clear, and I also show it in thread for Day 1 and 3, if not as much on Day 2 because I didn't post a lot then while I was busy. The rest of it's in PMs if you need me to dig them up. Multi-lynches haven't worked, so why am I going to bring up cases on people when they aren't the ones I want to lynch yet? You call me out for not making a case on earlier days, but I didn't want to lynch someone else on earlier days, so there was no point in trying to make a push for it. Instead of asking why I didn't, why don't you explain why I should have? I'm making a case now, because I want Palmar to die, and need to get more people behind it. There are no other cases, except for on me, and people all saying Chaoser is scum without a case. So, if I want something to happen, I need to get support because it isn't there yet, and I need to do it myself, because nobody else seems to want to. If you can't see that I'm town, or at least that Palmar is scum, you're blind and we're going to lose. This is directed to whichever townies are actually left and still reading. Even in Round A, why wouldn't you at least post reads or who you think is scum? If Palmar was in the minority, would you just ignore him completely even if you were sure he was scum? I can't really think you expect me to answer "Why should you post cases?". Anyways, yes I found that "he's our best bet for scum" wishy-washy, because it's not as strong as it seems. It makes it seem like you just choose him as scum because you had to, not because you actually thought he was scum. Also: So why am I going to bring up cases on people when they aren't the ones I want to lynch yet? Ehmm, didn't you say you wanted BC and Sheth lynched on D2 and D3? By this reasoning of yours, why didn't you make a case against them or even state you wanting to kill them in the thread (as far as I remember)? Anyways I'm in a hurry, gonna go to uni and be back like 1-2 hours before the deadline. Talk to MZ about anything related to votes and stuff and he'll tell me and ET once we come back. Wait, you wanted to kill BC on D2 and Sheth on D3? I don't remember you saying anything like that. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Fuck the format of my last post was fucked up, the "Wait, you...." was supposed to be before in the post. Well fuck it.. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
But damn, 1 more vote on chaoser or one less on Wiggles and both would have died  If 2 more townies die tonight we'll get in trouble. Hopefully the remaining Yokoya will start shooting the other scum team. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If I die, then listen to ET and MZ and trust their plans to lynch scum. If I don't die, well then do that as well since I'm gonna be absent for some time. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Well damn, I did think we would be pretty fucked with 2 kills tonight or something. Night kills are very weird this game, I don't know what the hell is going on or why scum sometimes kill and sometimes doesn't. Gonna check PMs and then try to come up with something, ET are you here? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
*cue Cephiro shitting on me again* Everybody except those 2 need at least 8 votes to be safe from the lynch, and we need to come up with something to counter-act any weird gambit from those two or other scum. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On May 13 2012 13:36 Cephiro wrote: Lol gonzaw? Like I've shat on you the whole game.. Anyway, if you are going to kill me, I'm going to give 5 votes to sandroba. Because if you keep killing anything else than the other scumteam, you're heading straight for a loss. And at this point even though it's clear sandroba is the remaining yokoya scum, the town will need his votes if you decide to kill me. As if I die, the town is down to 5 players, minus possible nightkills = 3-5 players alive for D6 if I am the only one to be lynched. So, let me get this straight: First of all, let's assume you are town, alright? Now, you know only one of you or sandroba will die tonight, and nobody else will give you any votes. Also, you think sandroba is the remaining scum from the Yokoya mafia. What would happen if you give sandroba votes? Then the only one that would die is you. That means town would get to N5 with 5-3-1 numbers, and maybe up to 3-3-1 on D6, which means we are very screwed. What would happen if you don't give sandroba any votes? Then BOTH of you would die, netting us another scum kill, and scum would have 1 less KP since we would wipe off one of their families. If you see both choices, then the 2nd one is obviously the one you would make as town. You didn't make it, then it's safe to assume you are scum, since you offer no other plans to not "keep killing anything else than the other scumteam". Also people, I think I came up with a plan to get either sandro or Cephiro lynched, even if another scum decides to out himself to give those 2 votes. I'm gonna check it out with ET and MZ first, but if they approve it it's good to go and I'll post it here. So please don't vote yet. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
"Now, you know only one of you or sandroba will die today, and nobody else..." | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Also, how should we believe you are telling the truth about your votes? If you are scum from the other team, then you can easily bluff just so we give you more votes to get both you and sandro lynched, then you'll get sandro lynched alone and you can survive another day. Anyways, doesn't matter since you are scum as well, and most likely from the other team so you dying will actually fulfill exactly what you are preaching I'll show you guys what you should vote today to ensure one of Cephiro or sandro, or both get lynched today, no matter what (I guess ET will be okay with it, didn't get a PM from him back though) | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Voting system for Day 5 Image: http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj144/gonzaw1/votes.jpg That is how you guys should vote. Search your row, then search the columns to the right. The X row meeting the Y column means that the player X should give the player Y c[X,Y] votes. For instance, prphlz should give Wiggles 2 votes, and sloosh 3. Why do it like this? There are 50 votes in total and 7 players in the majority. 50/7 rounded up is the amount of votes needed to be safe from the lynch, which in this case is 8. As you can see, everybody except sandro and Cephiro have 8 votes each, meaning they are safe from the lynch, meaning that if those 8 players vote like that, one or both of sandro and Cephiro will be guaranteed to be the lynch. Why this strange voting system then? Why not just have all those 8 players give votes randomly so those 5 players get 8 votes each? Because someone from that list of 8 players (me, ET, Katina, Meapak, Wiggles, Palmar and prplhz) may be scum and choose not to follow that voting system. He may do that to actually give sandro and Cephiro votes so someone else is the lynch. How can this happen? Okay, imagine that Cephiro gives sandro 5 votes (which he actually claimed he would do) and sandro gives Cephiro 5 votes. In this case, then sandro and Cephiro would have 5 votes each, while the rest of the players would have 8 votes each. In this scenario, both sandro and Cephiro would effectively be lynched. Now, what happens if one of those 8 other players is scum, and instead decides to give sandro/Cephiro 2 and 3 votes respectively? Let's call this guy "Player X" Imagine Player X gives sandroba 2 votes and gives Cephiro 3 votes. What would be the tally then? sandroba would have 7 votes, while Cephiro and the others would have 8 votes, so sandro would still get lynched, right? Wrong. Since Player X was following that plan, it means that at least he gave one of those other 5 players 1 vote. If he lied about it and used his 5 votes on Cephiro/sandroba, then it means that player would get at least 1 votes less. If that player had 1 vote less, then it means that he will have 7 votes along with sandroba. This means that both sandroba and this player get lynched. If that player had more than 1 vote less, then it means that player will be lynched alone. Examples of potential mass-town kills: If Player X gave two player 2 votes and another one 1 vote, then he would effectively lynch the first two players, while sandroba and Cephiro would both live (those 2 players would have 6 votes each, sandro 7, and Cephiro and the rest would have 8). Also, if Player X gave 5 different players 1 vote, then he would effectively kill 6 people (sandroba plus those 5 people he voted before, since all 6 would have 7 votes). "Okay" you might tell yourself, "This is independent of the actual way people vote, so what's the deal with this actual system"? First of all, if we use a random way to determine how those 8 players vote, then it's likely Player X gives me and/or ET votes. Meaning, if Player X is willing to out himself as scum to save both sandroba and Cephiro, he can get either me or ET lynched, or even both! Unless one of you wants to raise your hand to call us scum, then you can see why that's a bad situation. Because of that, I tried to minimize the the amount of potential "Player X"s that vote for me and ET. So the only ones voting for me and ET are:
I'm pretty sure ET and MZ are town, and it's likely Katina is town as well. This would mean that no "Scum Player X" can choose to kill one of us to save sandro+Cephiro. Even if one of those were scum, then I doubt he would out himself as scum to get us killed, considering his whole cover would be blown. Even if he does out himself to kill either me or ET, then even better. You would have a scum handed to you in a plate that would have been very hard to find otherwise. So that leaves how many votes these players give/receive:
And this player that's in the minority:
By the way the system works, those 4 players can give votes only to people from that first group above. Meaning, if Player X were to be one of those, then he can only get people from said first group to die (if he were to make that gambit I described above). If Player X were to do that, then by killing one of those people he wouldn't harm town too much (he would also remove a potential suspected townie for a next lynch), and he would also out himself as scum so we can get him later. Even more, I made the system so each of those 4 players only gives 1 of sloosh/Wiggles/prphlz 3 votes, and another one of those 2 votes. What does that mean? It means that if Player X wanted to make his gambit, then he can get only one of them killed. How's that good? It's good because Player X could potentially kill various townies like I said before. This way of voting counteracts that. Conclusion:
So people, unless you have any questions or complaints, follow this plan. Make sure to PM me/ET/MZ your votes as well. | ||
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