EPTNewbie Mini XII - Page 6
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:33 FirmTofu wrote: That's probably because I see no reason to apply your painstakingly crafted game theoretic models to this game. This is a game that is dependent more on psychology than anything else. As you said, it is a game of limited information and we should acknowledge that. I see no reason to believe you can model the individual psychologies of all players with your extensive knowledge of game theory. Bragging about your major isn't exactly helping your case. I cannot model the individual psychologies. I can make assumptions like "Townspeople want to win by eliminating Mafia" and "Mafia want to win by eliminating Townspeople." From there I can make assumptions such as "If a townie wants to win, he or she will take actions that should maximize the probability of winning" and vice versa. If you think that this type of modeling is outside the realm of game theory, please see the link I posted above. The notation and terminology used is a little excessive, but the insights are very well-rooted in common sense. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:36 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please. Here's a simplified model. Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you. Fortunately, you are not a medic and, as scum,you will be the one targeting me. And since nobody is willing to vote you off, I sincerely hope you follow your own twisted suboptimal logic and invent some WIFOM excuse for not lynching me. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact. Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:43 FirmTofu wrote: Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment. Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. I've run through this example many times already, but for the sake of dumb hope I'll do it again. My revelation of medic was chiefly to call out Claw's 100% scummy behavior with the anticipation that getting rid of a scum on day 1 in exchange for medic on night 1 is a good trade. It IS a good trade. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Initially claiming vanilla townie is a valid strategy regardless of role or alignment. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Where are you claiming inconsistencies? | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote: My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. Your analysis is wrong on at least 2 levels. 1.) Once Claw has claimed medic, he has made himself the single target (if he is not scum). You gain nothing by revealing except for a certain turn 2 death. Assuming rational night play by Mafia, you would've had a 1/6 chance of dying night 2. Now you have a 1 in 1 chance of dying night 2, since the medic is dead. 2.) If Claw flips scum, as I say he will, you are screwed because I am the medic and I will be killed tonight. Even if I am foolish enough to use my save on you, you will still die on night 2. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
Claw and Tofu have made quite a case against themselves with their nonsense. Whatevz. | ||
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Thanks again all of you! <3 | ||
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United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 09:58 Matriarch wrote: Does it matter that I am female? Yes! If at some point in the future there are gene splicing therapies an my Y-chromosome somehow gets corrupted, I will know not to ask you for a DNA transplant. =3 | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
If you disagree with any point I have made, then contest it. I understand I have made many pages worth of arguments. But most of those arguments can be taken in the context of a few blocks of posts. If you don't have time to read them, frankly tell me tl;dr. If I use terminology that doesn't make sense, please ask me to explain. It is not in the best interest of the town going forward to cast arguments you don't understand as nonsensical unless you can provide evidence supporting its nonsensicality. 1 hour left to live.... What's taking you so long, claw? | ||
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 All's well that end's well! <3 | ||
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On May 04 2012 11:05 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me. You really don't know what a logical fallacy is. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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My explanation is that claw has enough confidence in his explanation of his illogical behavior to waste a night kill to, instead of kill me, attempt to discredit me. My post history stands. Mafia did not make the right play tonight, but I will let that be their problem ^_^ | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
Logical deduction isn't the engine for this particular game, so I'm going to sit back and observe. Maybe I'll have a better time with forum Mafia next game. | ||
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