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Newbie Mini XII - Page 11

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Gummy
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States2180 Posts
May 02 2012 20:07 GMT
#201
It is not. I am making a credible threat so as to incentivize optimal play. As I explained I am merely trying to simplify computation for those unwilling or unable to walk through my admittedly involved line of reasoning.

My ultimatum is entirely consistent with wanting to help the town via the folk theorem. Seeing as I am very confident that claw is scum, what I do from here on out if people do not lynch claw is irrelevant since we cannot win. Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing, my voting no lynch is just as useful a vote as any other. Further, since I expect to be targeted the first night anyway, since the mafia would be stupid not to, I would very much prefer that Claw be taken down as well.

Not using my save on somebody who refuses to vote for claw is bait for a reason that is obvious if you think through what has been revealed so far. Even if it were not bait, I would rather there be somebody sympathetic to my reasoning in the morning than otherwise. Mafia would prefer the opposite.

Thus, everything I have said so far is consistent with my interests being aligned with the town's. If my rhetoric is offensive or annoying, be assured that it is intentional.

I will complete this post a little later.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.
DeMorcerf
Profile Joined June 2011
United States56 Posts
May 02 2012 20:17 GMT
#202
I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why:
+ Show Spoiler +
Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.)
What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia.
Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2.
If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw.
Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles?
If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3.
If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know.

Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1.

Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have.

Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.)

dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts.

Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet.

Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote:
Ok, I am a townie. But:

Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles?

Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything.

I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game
On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote:
But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that.
if you believe it's better not to claim, why go ahead and claim vanilla townie, and then state that such a claim is useless information? Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +
On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:

2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...

yes is illogical and should not have been posted. All in all, I don't currently think we have enough to lynch Ange, but if either Gummy or Ange flip mafia, I believe the other is a reasonable follow-up lynch because Ange seems to be agreeing with and answering for Gummy while trying to distance from Gummy at the same time.

Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"?

paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime).


As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight?
##Vote: No Lynch
"Yavaş, Yavaş!" What's round on the ends and high in the middle? Ohio!
Clawtrocity
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 20:22 GMT
#203
I'm back to answer questions. I had to real the novel written by Sir Gummyington before I could post.

Gummy seems to be familar with WIFOM, but none of the rest of you guys are. So you're all telling me that Gummy is definitely town because he talks a lot. That's interesting because if I was mafia, I'd talk my ass off to make you all think that. I've played Forum Mafia plenty of times and I've been mafia more than once. Every time I'm extremely active, helpful for the town and have even pushed lynches on my own teammates to stay alive.

He's playing a game with your heads and he's winning. On top of that he continues to suggest that my "lie" is more scummy than his "lie". Let's assume for a second that I'm Mafia and what people are saying is true. In what world would a person claim Medic and ask for the detective to claim so I could "heal him". If he died without me healing him you would know that I was lying and you'd be able to lynch me. If however I was really the medic and I pretended to look scummy then the mafia would be able to push a lynch on me. That's only one possibility though. The Mafia could also hide in the shadows and since they see that I'm acting scummy and being close to lynch they'd rather the town take care of me so they take care of someone else. There are so many different possibilities that sticking to one specific one is silly of you guys.

It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast.

The Mafia is strong because it's an informed minority, but when you take out the informed part it's just 2 guys circlejerking playing whack-a-mole.

The vote on Gummy stays.

Clawtrocity
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 20:38 GMT
#204
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.


tu quoque fallacy

Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing


Slippery slope fallacy

Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....

I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.


Appeal to authority fallacy

If you're trying to protect me you shouldn't use so many fallacies. The Mafia will catch on to the horrible logic and kill me instead Gummy. Keep trying you'll get it eventually.

dahdum
Profile Joined May 2010
United States46 Posts
May 02 2012 20:40 GMT
#205
Claw, I don't understand how you can keep your vote on Gummy, while simultaneously saying:
It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast.


If you really believe that, why continue to vote for his lynch?
paschl
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany666 Posts
May 02 2012 20:44 GMT
#206
I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy.
And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts?
Ill get back itt soon, playing dota2 aorn.
Clawtrocity
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 20:58 GMT
#207
On May 03 2012 05:40 dahdum wrote:
Claw, I don't understand how you can keep your vote on Gummy, while simultaneously saying:
Show nested quote +
It may not seem like it, but Gummy is protecting me. He is throwing accusations and acting like a crazy person just so the mafia think Gummy is the real medic. They'll shoot him tonight and he'll be a vanilla townie and viola that'll be the end of it. So we go back and forth where we're each calling each other Mafia and the mafia have no idea who to hit. They just know to hit one of us which leaves our detective open to do whatever he wants. So yeah, Gummy might be mafia, but honestly he's probably just a vanilla townie and there's nothing wrong with that because he's trying to protect me. It's an interesting tatic because it prevents the mafia from figuring anything out too fast.


If you really believe that, why continue to vote for his lynch?


It's mainly to cause more confusion to the Mafia. Do they believe my words or my actions? Which ever one they believe will have a direct influence on who they target tonight. I can't just let them have the answer I have to hope they fail it.
Matriarch
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 21:19 GMT
#208
But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic.
dahdum
Profile Joined May 2010
United States46 Posts
May 02 2012 21:19 GMT
#209
So you think he's innocent, but you want to lynch him to distract the mafia?

Standard.
Ange777
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Germany1164 Posts
May 02 2012 21:29 GMT
#210
@DeMorcerf:

While I do understand your logic I don't believe No lynch is better than possibly mislynching. By voting for a lynch we will be able to see who voted on whom and why. No lynch just gives scum an excuse not to make a case against someone.

You are correct that by lynching one of the three potential blue roles we might mislynch. But lynching is the only way to get more information about the motives of every votes. If we just wait for night, scum can pick a target and we only get to know what colour they flipped. With this little information it would be really hard to reveal scum on day 2. If I missed some point, please tell me.

Regarding my role claiming: I thought this was normal seeing all the other players roleclaiming. I merely wanted to state that I don't think it will be of much use. I admit being a first time player I am probably easier to influence so next time being pressured to role claim I will think first and then post

Can you please explain why I should not have posted that?

On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:
Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +
On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:

2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...

yes is illogical and should not have been posted.

♥ Sen - 台灣之光 ♥
Clawtrocity
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 21:29 GMT
#211
On May 03 2012 06:19 Matriarch wrote:
But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic.


You don't have night actions to kill people.

And I'm not trying to lynch him. A vote on him is nothing like pushing for a lynch.
paschl
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany666 Posts
May 02 2012 21:31 GMT
#212
On May 03 2012 06:29 Clawtrocity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2012 06:19 Matriarch wrote:
But in confusing the mafia you are also confusing the rest of us townies as well. Circular logic.


You don't have night actions to kill people.

And I'm not trying to lynch him. A vote on him is nothing like pushing for a lynch.


I.. but... wha..?
huh.
Ange777
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Germany1164 Posts
May 02 2012 21:33 GMT
#213
On May 03 2012 05:44 paschl wrote:
I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy.
And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts?


Which post are you referring to Paschl?
♥ Sen - 台灣之光 ♥
Gummy
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States2180 Posts
May 02 2012 21:45 GMT
#214
On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote:
Show nested quote +
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.

There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself.

Show nested quote +
Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing


Slippery slope fallacy

This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win.

Show nested quote +
Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....

I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.


There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question.


I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.
Gummy
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States2180 Posts
May 02 2012 21:50 GMT
#215
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote:
I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why:
+ Show Spoiler +
Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.)
What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia.
Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2.
If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw.
Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles?
If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3.
If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know.

Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1.

Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have.

Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.)

dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts.

Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet.

Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler +
On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote:
Ok, I am a townie. But:

Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles?

Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything.

I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game
On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote:
But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that.
if you believe it's better not to claim, why go ahead and claim vanilla townie, and then state that such a claim is useless information? Yet, you don't go crazy when Gummy pressures you; and you then put forward Gummy's medic slip and analyze how Claw appears to be a bad liar. But this: + Show Spoiler +
On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote:

2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ...

yes is illogical and should not have been posted. All in all, I don't currently think we have enough to lynch Ange, but if either Gummy or Ange flip mafia, I believe the other is a reasonable follow-up lynch because Ange seems to be agreeing with and answering for Gummy while trying to distance from Gummy at the same time.

Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"?

paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime).


As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight?
##Vote: No Lynch


So you're saying "Ok, I agree with your logic on Claw but I don't want to vote him off because he's incriminated himself anyway." You end up in the same situation tomorrow as today. Only you're a townie down. As Ange said, when an obvious Mafia is on the table, you lynch him. You do not wait to lynch him especially when the suspicion of him is public.

I don't think anything Claw has said in the last few pages has made anything approaching sense.

Also, I post a lot because I make long posts with a lot of info. Then I realize I can't edit, so I make amendments. This is how no-edit forum mafia works....
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.
paschl
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany666 Posts
May 02 2012 21:50 GMT
#216
On May 03 2012 06:33 Ange777 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2012 05:44 paschl wrote:
I feel like either nobody is reading my posts or im going crazy.
And fwiw this isnt posting much. I usually play 7/2 turbos and a day in those seldomly goes below 100 posts. Were here on a 2 day day1 and we made what? 200 posts?


Which post are you referring to Paschl?



All of them basically.
I feel like im playing a solid day1 and all my posts get waved off as spam.
Instead there is posts like this:

On May 03 2012 06:45 Gummy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote:
Clawtrocity has already become ambiguous with his language meaning he is backing off from his role claim, without any kind of real justification for why he faked his role claimed in the first case.

There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself.

Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing


Slippery slope fallacy

This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win.

Is there any way of making an ultimatum in this game? Since I'm not allowed to use a modkill as a bargaining chip, can I say "I will shut up for the rest of the game and post only enough not to get modkilled and vote #nolynch" every day thereafter unless you vote for XXXXX. If so....

I am making an ultimatum here. If Claw is not voted off today, then I will shut up for the rest of the game, only posting enough not to get modkilled. I will vote nolynch every day after this one if Claw is not voted off today. So make your choice between him or me. GL HF folks.


There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question.


I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum.


I mean... yeah.
Clawtrocity
Profile Joined April 2012
United States21 Posts
May 02 2012 22:05 GMT
#217
Gummy's in the perfect spot right now. He claims medic after me and accuses me of lying. I accuse him of lying and he does the same right back at me.

When he successfully lynches me and I turn out to be the medic, he'll claim that he was right that I was scummy and I was just a bad player so no fault lies on him. He'll also probably say that he isn't even medic and he was just so sure of his "gut feeling" that I was mafia that he claimed to be medic to get me lynched. It's impossible for me to win in that situation because I'm arguging with a narcissist who's so sure of himself that he's hurting the town around him. All the while the real mafia are laughing their asses off while the town try and kill each other.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 02 2012 22:06 GMT
#218

Votecount:

Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy
gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity
Matriarch (1)- dahdum
dahdum (1)- paschl

No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf

With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Gummy
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States2180 Posts
May 02 2012 22:09 GMT
#219
Ok. Since the number of people not understanding how my ultimatum helps the town is greater than the number of possible mafia, I'm going to explicitly explain how each part of this threat works.

1.) I will be targeted tonight by the Mafia unless they are retarded. It is literally a dominant strategy in expectations at this point to target me. So long as the Mafia believe my extremely obvious role claim, there is no mind game to be played here. It's not like I want to die tonight, but any of you can run through the calculations.

2.) Since I am extremely confident in Claw's being scum, and we cannot win unless we vote off all scum, we need to vote off Claw. If we do not vote off Claw, we will be in the same position tomorrow, with one fewer townie with which to vote of Claw. Once you have identified scum and that scum knows he has been identified (look how Claw is melting down) you need to vote him off. It is a dominant strategy. To vote him off now is strictly better than voting him off tomorrow. You will not have my vote tomorrow because I will be dead. You will not gain any information by not voting him off. You will merely be in the same situation tomorrow with one fewer townie and in all likelihood one fewer power role. If by some retarded coincidence I end up alive tomorrow, there will be no reason for me to vote for anybody except Claw. Unless you are willing to vote off Claw, I am just as well off voting no lynch for the duration of the game until claw is voted off or scum win. This is hardly even a threat.
Assuming some positive utility (say 1) for lynching a mafia and a negative utility (say -1) for mislynching, voting for Claw is a utility of 1 - epsilon. Voting for anybody else is 1/7(chance of hitting a mafia at random less Claw and myself) - 6/7(chance of hitting a townie at random less claw and myself) = -5/7. Voting for a no lynch is trivially 0. So obviously, I either vote Claw or no lynch.

3.) I will not save you if you are not voting in my favor: a.) Since somebody has to die, I would prefer the person who gets killed during the night to more likely be somebody who is not able or willing to follow my reasoning. Obviously I believe in my own reasoning enough to prefer that someone who shares my reasoning survive to the following day. b.) I am the person who will die tonight so who I cast my vote to save doesn't matter.

So my ultimatum is simply, as I claimed, a computation simplifier. Choose between me and claw. If you think about it, since I'm going to die tonight anyway with a very high probability, you're choosing between getting rid of a very small fraction of me or a very large fraction of claw.

The choice is so obvious I want to scream.

Here's some logic you guys might comprehend.

Get
Rid
Of
Claw.

It spells out GROC. Groc is pronounced like Grok which is German for comprehend. Do you guys comprehend?

Claw: That's a logical fallacy.

My response: No shit, sherlock.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.
Gummy
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States2180 Posts
May 02 2012 22:11 GMT
#220
On May 03 2012 07:06 Mattchew wrote:

Votecount:

Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy
gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity
Matriarch (1)- dahdum
dahdum (1)- paschl

No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf

With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline

Unless somebody changes their vote and the two latecomers vote Claw, you guys are a very suicidal town.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.
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