EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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I've vaguely looked at the thread before, but I'm going to have to have a serious readthrough and come back to you. Two things: the lynch on Veriat was obviously a good result, and made more interesting by the fact it was barely achieved. What I have noticed from my glancethrough is that some of you are reading more into the votes than you should be. Newbie games are absolutely notorious for connection play. Anyway, I will draw my own conclusions from the vote and get back to you. Second of all, I am not AcesAnoka. You may think his posting is terrible as hell or that he was scummy and lurky or whatever, but please approach my posting with an open mind. If you're gonna call me scum, call me scum because of what I've done. That will do for now. | ||
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marvellosity
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I'm glad people have generally grasped that someone voting for Veriat didn't make them town necessarily. The lynch was a very interesting one as it was achieved with nothing to spare. Basically that's 2 options: scum did everything they could do prevent Veriat's lynch and failed. This would imply the people not voting Veriat are scum. The other option is that scum (either one or both) decided to go for mucho town cred by bussing Veriat. It's impossible to say at this point. The only other thing that stood out in conjunction with this is that Veriat threw suspicion at zen (possible omgus), jailbreaker, and nreekay - the last two who were not on the Veriat wagon. My feelings on this are that scum would be unlikely to go all-out to save Veriat by not voting him AND throw suspicion on their own kind at the same time - that seems like an unnecessary risk. At the moment, a prime scummy candidate would seem to be Jailbreaker. I will have to look at his filter to see if a case should be made, but the impression is he just posts useless crap. Whether he's a bad townie or scummyscumscum at this stage is somewhat unclear. The second person I am most interested in is WhySoMuch. There were a couple of things that stood out at me just browsing the thread: 1) lots of vote changes. Doesn't have to be alignment indicative, but it stood out 2) The only quote from someone I actually have written down - "Town reads are more important than mafia reads". Interesting - I thought we were here to lynch scum. He expressed the same opinion AGAIN, and then listed his own town reads. Unless I am mistaken, this also happened at night. Sounds like it could be town-read fishing -> mafia kills. Lists of town reads, especially at night, are bad, mmkay? Like I said, they only give mafia targets. If you have people you think are pretty likely town - good!! You don't need to tell all of us. Do you really think that saying "blabla seems extremely townie" is going to convince anyone that person is town if they didn't think so already? 3) He called out golden very quickly saying that if Veriat was scum, golden was scum. Say whaaaaaaaat? So someone casts the deciding vote to lynch a scum and they're scum? I mean, it's possible, sure, but that's an incredible leap to make. It does point out that Whysomuch is extremely aware that scum could be bussing scum to try to gain towncred. Related to this is that he points out himself that he looks good for voting Veriat. So he looks awesomely townie for lynching the scum and golden, the guy who actually got the scum lynched, looks scummy. k. Anyway, reading the filters is an even bigger task than reading the thread, but I will work on it diligently. There's some food for thought in the meanwhile. | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 01 2012 09:56 WhySoMuch wrote: 2nd point) Yes we are here to lynch scum, but the only way mafias win is by mislynches. By establishing our town reads, we take away mislynches. You see the same names popping up on town lists and those people all of a sudden become unlynchable, thereby taking away mislynches. The point of having town reads isn't to convince other people to have the same town reads, it's that if everyone makes a town reads list, you have a group of players that will show up on multiple lists, thereby increasing our chances of hitting a mafia. 3rd point) No it isn't, he was forced to make the vote. If he didn't it would automatically be mafia/mafia no questions asked. He put Veriat on his mafia list and was "Happy to vote him". He was also Pro-D1 lynch in the discussion earlier, and if he didn't vote that would go against his policy. No this doesn't automatically mean he is a mafia, but awarding town points to Golden is wrong. To the bold - what is this nonsense? People don't become unlynchable for turning up on lists, that's absurd. People are unlynchable when they're dead. If a couple of people have someone down as a town-read and I think he's scum, is that going to stop me making a case on them? No, of course it isn't. You don't find mafia because people turn up on lists. You find mafia because they are scummy, simple as that. On May 01 2012 10:00 WhySoMuch wrote: to add to your 3rd point: Yeah, I do look better than Golden, So does Splinter so does PureSC so does Mordanis. The deciding vote there is not what got Veriat lynched, and the town successfully twisted Golden's arm to vote a mafia, that may not be the right phrase, as Golden could be a town in which case we still "forced" him to vote Veriat, but Golden would do that anyways in that scenario, but if he were mafia and the votes were say 5-3, then golden would not have had to switch. So in the scenario where scum decides to bus Veriat, is it not more likely that they do so in the midst of the voting rather than at the end? golden wasn't 'forced' to vote for anyone, he voted who he wanted to. He could have made a non-vote earlier on in the day on someone like aces (me) or whoever was suspicious at the time. You seem to have a preconceived notion of how people 'should' play - well, people don't necessarily play like that. You're inventing narratives that to you sound likely, but they are not necessarily true, or even the likeliest narrative. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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On May 01 2012 10:00 WhySoMuch wrote: to add to your 3rd point: Yeah, I do look better than Golden, So does Splinter so does PureSC so does Mordanis. The deciding vote there is not what got Veriat lynched, and the town successfully twisted Golden's arm to vote a mafia, that may not be the right phrase, as Golden could be a town in which case we still "forced" him to vote Veriat, but Golden would do that anyways in that scenario, but if he were mafia and the votes were say 5-3, then golden would not have had to switch. I'm gonna carry on, because I really must make you think about things properly. So this post says - in a scenario that didn't happen (5-3), golden may have acted in a different manner. Right. Further to this, in the scenario that actually occurred, a townie golden would vote for Veriat, and in your world, a scummy one would. Thus golden would be voting for Veriat whichever alignment he is. Further further to this, a townie golden would practically always vote for Veriat in that situation to force a lynch, whereas a scummy golden could potentially take the option to force a no-lynch, saving his scumbuddy. See how silly your analysis of the situation is? | ||
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marvellosity
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I also did not say it made golden looked good, I said your assertion that he was scum (your words were something like "If veriat is scum, i believe golden is scum") which I totally dissected in my last post. As it appears I will fail in my bid to make you see common sense, I shall stop this back and forth with you. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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Just sayin' | ||
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marvellosity
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Find ONE, yes only ONE, good player on this forum who lists town-reads (at night no less) and encourages others to do the same. Pro-tip: you won't find one. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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It does seem for now that Jailbreaker is the strongest case. Given his filter isn't too long, I probably bear the risk of repeating what others have said, but never mind. First of all, we have the 'I don't want to rush my vote' followed by rushing his vote. On April 27 2012 04:33 Jailbreaker wrote: with all this nonsense talk about scheduals and lynch/no lynch, we're forgetting about the real issue here: THERE'S MAFIA SCUM AMONG US. I know it is day one, but does it have to be so passive? I don't want to vote for the wrong person based on three posts On April 27 2012 11:52 Jailbreaker wrote: vote## yomi He's finally prodded into making a post that has more content than my rubbish bin, but there's so little to note in it I find it hard to comment on it: On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: Semi Long Post Warning + Show Spoiler + These are my thoughts so far on what has been posted. right or wrong, this is my interpretation. On April 27 2012 02:57 yomi wrote: these players havent posted: whysomuch mordanis calls them out for lurking: bandwagon under construction On April 27 2012 03:24 yomi wrote: ya rando lynch is bad that's 25% I think to hit which is not profit. But you only need 25 more points to get to 50% and then we are in profit territory so we'll see how it plays out. if everyone is getting along friendly and lurking all day like they are now then we can't do anything. and being useless: bandwagon mobilized. On April 27 2012 03:52 Mordanis wrote: Shit. I was asleep or at class until now. Anyways, I personally think that a lynch on the first day would be a mistake. I haven't followed much mafia, played before, or read as much as I should have, and so my personal view is that it would be a shame to lynch someone solely based on trying to trim down the total pool of people in the spaceship. OHMIGOSH was called a lurker! time to panic! On April 27 2012 04:00 Mordanis wrote: As an addendum to my previous post, it is going to be hard to judge whether someone is lurking or just sleeping, seeing as we have people from USA, Europe, and even South Pacific. Since days are 24 hours and nights are 48 hours, I definitely think that you need to wait for a fairly long time (I'm thinking about 9 hours), because people do occasionally sleep  If nothing else, at least for first little bit we should tell everyone our relative schedules so that there is no misunderstanding. To start this off, I will be going to class in about an hour, and after that I'll be able to post maybe once before going to work until about 10:30ish PM (AZ time) Tries to clear lurker name. because hey, this is a gobal game right? somepeople might need more time. seemsreasonabletome. On April 27 2012 05:27 Lazermonkey wrote: But yet your own post doesn't really contribute much at all. If you think not enough people are posting or that they are posting useless stuff, wouldn't it be better if you did some analysis yourself? I think everyone are conscious about that we have mafia among us and everyone would like to avoid dumb misslynches. You are stating the obvious here. Your post is even a bit counterproductive in that you discouraging people from making posts about lynch/no lynch. Afaik there isn't much else to talk about atm but please let us know if there is something. Talking about peoples opinions about lynching gives us a tell on their gameplan/motives etc. so I find nothing bad with it. I'm off to bed now. There is a chance that I will not be able to post to much untill 20:00 CEST tomorrow. You're right, I should put more analysis into my posts. On April 27 2012 10:22 WhySoMuch wrote: Hey all, This is my first game on this site, but I have played WW elsewhere so I'm not a total newbie. First off, with regards to No-Lynch, this is a very bad idea. We have 2 kills a day as of right now, the vig and the lynch, by negating a kill we are automatically giving the wolves an edge by not taking advantage of our kill-rate. Also, even though a villager is more likely to be lynched, the information we gain via wagon analysis, late vote changes etc. becomes very valuable as we progress through the game. And a random question: Is there any way to get more posts per page? Right now mine is set to default and couldnt find a way to make me see more posts. Idk if it's possible. totally not drawing attention to myself Page 5 is the Yomi versus WhySoMuch showdown Yomi votes for whysomuch, whysomuch votes for The_Zen_Man (where did this come from?) they talk about win rates for town correctly lynching and whatnot I vote for Yomi because I feel like you are starting a bandwagon against whysomuch so early in the game then he asks why i voted for him. I think that is suspicious. then On April 27 2012 12:38 nreekay324 wrote: they're almost as bad as vampires ##vote: whysomuch so confused by this, dont know what to say. next is: On April 27 2012 13:16 WhySoMuch wrote: nreekay's vote on me is weirder than yomi I think I see this as: "YOMI has a reason to vote for me. Nreekay is prolly jumping on the bandwagon" O.Golden_ne - obvious critical analysis out in the open. BOOM CHECK IT next set of posts is my fail vote, lol. I vote for yomi for reasons stated above Mordanis- i think he is just trying to keep a "netural" image. I'm totally against the witchhunt too, I will put more analysis into posts. But within it, he does say this twice: On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: You're right, I should put more analysis into my posts. On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: I will put more analysis into posts. See the bolded part of the post below: On April 28 2012 13:52 Jailbreaker wrote: when i read the past few pages of this thread, most of you seem so suspicious. I dont want to post a Fos untill i can get my logic straightened out. Yes, I realize that my posts have flaws, but I will stand by my decision untill i am fully convinced to change my vote. I don't want to sit in the neutral zone because I feel that it is to passive. What Golden has said in the post above me, "Both these players seem very afraid to be lynched, and squirm under scrutiny." Even though it is for two different players, getting accused causes panic and action. I feel like it would be easier to identify between scum and town. Im going to stand by my vote of yomi. No apologies for my shallow posts. The last few quotes have all gone to generally illustrate the point that Jailbreaker is aware his posts are lacking. In fact, he keeps repeating it (instead of, you know, analysing). And finally there, 'no apologies for his shallow posts'. O.o Finally we have a vague suspicion thrown at Mordanis: On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: Mordanis - + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 11:53 Mordanis wrote: Frankly, I was simply reluctant to change my 3 times in about an hour. In reality, I was more for a lynch for either player than I was for a lynch of specifically one of them. At that point, Aces hadn't posted in about a day, so without knowing any justification for why he was lurking, he was a good candidate for a lynch even if there was a low probability of his being mafia just because he wasn't any help for the town. Hell, I'm still for lynching lurkers even if there is a low probability of them turning out scum because we need to work together. Lurking only hurts us. Also, if you look at the earlier parts of the thread, I was one of the first to put pressure on Veriat, which I don't see mafia doing. After that little bit of defense, I'm very glad to have suspicion cast upon me. We need to have everyone defending themselves and looking at other players behavior. I'd like to think that I'm one of the least scummy posters, but I have no problems. I'll be able to post a bit more in a little bit, so bye for a few minutes :D All I get is a scum vibe from you on this post. But i feel like i don't have enough info on you to make a significant case against you. Seeing how I take individual posts instead of looking at the context of the posts. The bold part is all he says about why he finds it scummy. In other words, no reason at all. But wait, what did we see before? On April 28 2012 13:52 Jailbreaker wrote: I dont want to post a Fos untill i can get my logic straightened out. A-ha! He doesn't want to post a FoS until his logic is straightened out. Except he then does exactly that against Mordanis with... no logic at all. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At this point Jailbreaker is the strongest and most obvious scumread. One question for the thread. 1) Are you sure that he's scum and not just bad town? Second nagging feeling is how Veriat fingered Jailbreaker and nreekay, the two 'popular' suspects for today. Makes me a little uncomfortable. | ||
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marvellosity
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The problems are contained in your questions 1 and 2. I can see nothing that makes me think one is more likely than the other. This very much isn't a dig at you, but this is classic wifom territory - the answer changes every time you add or takeaway a piece of information of logical thinking from the equation. I suppose this is why I said it makes me feel uncomfortable - I can't draw any worthwhile conclusions from his fingering, and yet they still exist. Going through my thought process, I'm glad you made me think about it a little more. In my view, for now, effectively ignoring who Veriat pointed fingers at is probably the best mindset. If we think someone is scum, then we shouldn't worry what Veriat thought. Moving on - Jailbreaker is obviously a likely lynch today. But it doesn't do town much good just to go 'yep, we'll lynch this guy', so if there are other cases to be made, let's give it a go. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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On May 01 2012 23:56 Mordanis wrote: In response to Marvellosity's question about whether Jailbreaker is bad town or mafia: I'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts. I hate this type of reasoning. If it's a mislynch, then basically we lose two townies for free (barring the unlikely event Mafia KP at night is blocked). Then we're back in the Day cycle with the same number of mafias and two less townies. However useless he is, this is not good for town. | ||
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marvellosity
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6 townies 2 mafia is an infinitely worse situation than 8 townies 2 mafia with 1 townie you think is bad. | ||
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marvellosity
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Jailbreaker does look pretty scummy (as per my case against him), and as it stands now I can't think of a better lynch candidate. I think generally I'm always just a little concerned at 'easy' lynches just because they're easy. Seems like it should be harder. Nonetheless: ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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You have attained jubjub status. | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 02 2012 03:07 Mordanis wrote: First of all, your 8 vs. 6 implies that the mafia won't score a hit. It would make infinitely more sense to say 7 vs. 6. And I think that 6 townies would fair better without someone who acts thought than 7 townies with someone who makes no sense. That being said, I never said that we should lynch people just because they don't make sense or don't contribute. For people who already seem scummy, it is a way to state that a mis-lynch wouldn't destroy one of the core members, or the flow of information through the thread. I'm curious whether you would support a no-lynch if Jailbreaker seemed less scummy? Or what if you wer 65% sure one player was mafia, but he posted a lot and made a lot of sense. But another player was up for lynching, and you were only 45% sure he was mafia, and he posted illogically, inconsistently, and generally badly. Which one would you vote for (Since this is a thought experiment, think of the percentages more generally plz)? Personally, the one who posted worse seems like the better candidate to me because its a lower risk/ lower reward, in other words its the safer play. My 8 vs 6 implies this. We are in a day cycle with 8 town 2 mafia. If we lynch a townie, we are again in the day cycle but this time with 6 town 2 mafia. This is the problem with mislynching, you're losing 2 townies. If you lynch scum, you're 7 townies 1 mafia. The difference between 6-2 and 7-1 is immense. This is why you always lynch your strongest scum-read. So to your 2nd paragraph. The only correct play is to lynch the 65% read. For reasons explained above. Choosing the option that is more likely to yield 6-2 instead of 7-1 is ludicrous. | ||
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marvellosity
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I know plenty of good players, I read this forum like a whore. | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 02 2012 03:23 Mordanis wrote: 65-45 isn't as big of a split as you seem to think it is. And I'd say that the idiot is more likely to derail the process in the future, and the longer there is only one mafia in the game the more difficult I'd say it is to tell who it is. Literally all the one mafia has to do is defend himself and blend in while killing one person per night. The odds aren't that good if a few days are wasted talking about whoever the idiot is attacking. Whereas with two mafia left vs. 6 competent players, I see a much greater likelihood that the 6 can work together and find holes in the mafia's play. Long story short, this seems much more of a play-style thing than an objectively right or wrong situation. You prefer an overwhelming majority of numbers, I prefer to be able to have a group that is capable of finding the mafia through reason. In any case though, Jailbreaker is IMO the better scum read than Nreekay, and also the worse player. But I have to agree, this lynch is going too easily. I'm going to look into any reasons why... Hopefully I'll be able to post some reasons for the easiness in a bit. I don't even | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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But it remains the case you wouldn't find the opinions that you and Mordanis are putting forth in non-newbie games. That's just the way it is. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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menolikey. Let's prod them in the night time. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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so golden, who's your top scumread and what's the case on him? | ||
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marvellosity
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those 2 are my tentative scum-team. gonna have to look at lazer too. | ||
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marvellosity
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If you want to win the game, let's get some scum. Regarding your post: there are two options: 1) i'm scum trying to get towncred 2) i'm an unsure townie it's just wifom. Let's go after the guys who might actually be scum. | ||
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marvellosity
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It basically means it's speculation that can't be substantiated. Most often used in connection cases. Usually it involves trying to work out what someone can think - "he could post this to try to look townie, which means he could be scummy. But he could know i think it's scummy to look townie, so if he was scum he wouldn't post that. but if he knows that, then he could have posted that. but if he know that..." etc | ||
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marvellosity
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Veriat could well have completely ignored his scumreads knowing you would think like that that is the essence of wifom | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 02 2012 17:35 Pure-SC2 wrote: Sadly, it looks like we learn more from Splinter's modkill (and town flip) than we do from Jailbreaker's lynch (and town flip). Other than feeling I'm suspicious for possibly acting townie but it could be townie but it could be scummy but it could be townie, what do you think suspicions-wise? Regarding nreekay, I read his filter in Newbie X and it read similar to this one (where he was town). The only difference was that he made a stronger case in X than he has here (vs Zealos). Not sure how worrying that is, though. | ||
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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Pure: imo voting information is simply a not-that-strong heuristic at this stage. Scummy/townie motivations in posting is in most cases the primary evidence. FYI, I have not read Aces' filter this game. Perhaps I should. The impressions I get from the cases against him (me) from other filters is that he was a weak player and lurky. Of which I am neither. | ||
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marvellosity
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Perhaps you've had more luck than me, but I had frustratingly little success trying to peg people one way or another with the Veriat lynch. As an example, 1/2 of Jailbreaker/Splinter voted Veriat, and they were both townie | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 02 2012 23:58 Pure-SC2 wrote: Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific. Further to the bolded in particular, I am not approaching my scumhunting like this. | ||
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marvellosity
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+ Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 18:29 Pure-SC2 wrote: I'm getting an off read on WhySoMuch, I don't really understand it so just going to post my thoughts in case someone else can make something out of it. So we're playing a newbie game here, for people who've played 3 or less games. yet here he is so ingrained in his Wolves/Villages thing that he can't even proof read his posts to change it to reflect the fact we're playing Mafia here, on the TL mafia forums, in which everyone else is referencing mafia/scum and townies? How many games do you have to have played to get it that ingrained in your head? And after its been mentioned by a few people, why wouldn't he make any effort to do something about it? Yet his posts seem well thought out and carefully worded. He goes on and asks the most basic fundamental questions that can be answered by using the tiniest bit of logical thought (how to quote posts and view more posts on a page), which doesn't line up with the fact that his posts seem to be well thought out and logical. I don't trust him. It's like he's playing this naive, simpleton role here so that he won't come under suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 04:12 Pure-SC2 wrote: WhySoMuch seems to like the bandwagon based of who's voting for AcecAnoka, not because he think's he's scum. Hmm. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 04:18 Pure-SC2 wrote: In the space of 20 minutes, WhySoMuch has flipped votes 3 times. I'm getting more and more suspicious of this guy. Then your last read on him is this: On May 01 2012 18:08 Pure-SC2 wrote: WhySoMuch - he is causing so much confusion and distraction with the way he is posting. I actually have a neutral read on him but my plan is to just ignore him for now. He's either playing a very deep and layered deception play or has so many bad preconceived notions of what to look for that it's just not worth engaging in. He may need to be looked at closer depending on what happens over the day/night cycle. My spoilers are by no means all the times you've posted on WhySoMuch. You claim suspicions of his posts many times, but in your read there, he is 'neutral'. I would like an explanation, and I would like it above and beyond "he's playing weirdly" because I've not included anything on his funny fixation on town lists and what have you. | ||
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On May 03 2012 01:06 Pure-SC2 wrote: @marvellosity - Honestly, I'm struggling with WhySoMuch. I have found many of his actions suspicious (which is what you've spoilered there), but he's also posted several things which seem extremely town, leading me to getting mass confusion from his points and his reads, further leading me to wanting to ignore him at this stage. The specific things I've found townie: - Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Now I know I am town, and I have a town read on TZM, and therefore I can't see a mafia stating this. - Stated his strong read that Splinter was town. Again, I can't see a scum motivation for stating this. *unless as mafia he was anticipating the mod kill/town flip and seeking to gain cred that way - but thats just WIFOM. I really struggle with his odd logic, and as such I can't get a solid read. I'd be interested if anyone has any further suspicions against him, TZM made some good points yesterday. The vote flipping seems way more suspicious to me than Golden's vote switch that ended up lynching Veriat. I had a theory earlier that either him or golden was scum, i.e., if one flipped town the other would flip scum, but I'm not so sure on that any more as I can't make a strong case against either. There is a chance (and I've stated this before) that he is playing some deep deception here. I can't confirm it from the information available though so leaving it at that for now. Ok, seems a decent answer :> I noticed the Splinter thing too, but I don't necessarily have the pro-town slant on it you have. One thing to note - scum know for sure who town are, town do not. | ||
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marvellosity
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On May 03 2012 01:27 Pure-SC2 wrote: Yup, agree with you there (hence my WIFOM comment). Just hard to imagine scum essentially making it near to impossible to lynch 3 townies. But based on other posts, definitely not outside the realms of possibility with him. You seem to have accidentally bought into WSM's townie-post logic there  I'm definitely viewing his "who looks good for voting Veriat" list as a separate entity to him calling Splinter town. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 01:48 The_Zen_Man wrote: marvellosity: I will add some stuff during the day, just waiting the night out for now. If I could make a suggestion - make/write your post and post it just before the day deadline. That way if you are killed we can still see your analysis, but it will be too late for mafia to act on any late information. For reference, I posted one minute before day-post in Mafia LIII, and in the day-post it was revealed I had been killed. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
Glad you're coming around, Mordanis Case is gonna have to be tomorrow now. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
How many times should I be mentioning people? o.o Also, if you think WhySoMuch is most likely scum, what's your case? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 15:55 Lazermonkey wrote: + Show Spoiler + On May 03 2012 10:18 WhySoMuch wrote: Conflicting tone in this post. You are sure that there is one scum on Veriat, and you go on to say that 4 of the 7 people (2 are dead) are some degree of town reads, and yet, you are "Not sure about this guy at all" at me. Shouldn't you be fairly sure I am a mafia? And as such shouldn't you be willing to make a case on me. And then you go on to not limit your options by adding the underlined clause. I have you as my highest scumreads atm. What limits do you want? I'm 63% sure that you are scum atm? + Show Spoiler + On May 03 2012 13:55 WhySoMuch wrote: Can I ask you something sir. How can you follow all the drama on your phone if you are asleep? If you weren't asleep, then you very well could have changed your vote but you didn't. Either way you are lieing somewhere here. So why are you lieing? I can already feel today being a good day. This is gonna get better btw. this is just the start Because I'm scum or because I don't remember things. you choose! + Show Spoiler + On May 03 2012 14:02 WhySoMuch wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 06:30 Lazermonkey wrote: @The_Zen_Man + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 05:41 The_Zen_Man wrote: @Lazermonkey In that post a merely stated some of my opinions on some players.I posted several other similliar opinions on some other players. And concerning how i like how AcesAnoka put a pressure vote on yomi is because i liked it. We were all thinking why yomi voted, but we needed a statement from him. Also, the vote would tell us more why nreekay324 voted for whysomuch. + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 05:41 The_Zen_Man wrote: @Lazermonkey In that post a merely stated some of my opinions on some players.I posted several other similliar opinions on some other players. And concerning how i like how AcesAnoka put a pressure vote on yomi is because i liked it. We were all thinking why yomi voted, but we needed a statement from him. Also, the vote would tell us more why nreekay324 voted for whysomuch. And if AcesAnoka would want to go for a bandwagon on someone, why not whysomuch, who already had 2 votes on him? That seems to me like a town behavior. Also, if i was his "scumbro", wouldnt i support his voting on yomi before? Not vote with him or something, just some few posts about it. And yet i haven't done that. The reason for my defensive stance is beacuse i've had to explain some suspicions on me, not really any more than that. If you read my filter, you would know that. It seems like you are trying to find suspicious behavior on me, and you are not afraid on going far in your accusations. You did manage to inflate a few comments on AcesAnoka to me being his "scumbro" .Is it because on of your scum-buddies got some heat and you are trying to direct eveyones attention elsewhere? nreekay324 for example has been getting some heat lately. Atm im not sure about you, you haven't posted enough for me to be sure of you. That seems to me like a town behavior. Also, if i was his "scumbro", wouldnt i support his voting on yomi before? Not vote with him or something, just some few posts about it. And yet i haven't done that. The reason for my defensive stance is beacuse i've had to explain some suspicions on me, not really any more than that. If you read my filter, you would know that. It seems like you are trying to find suspicious behavior on me, and you are not afraid on going far in your accusations. You did manage to inflate a few comments on AcesAnoka to me being his "scumbro" .Is it because on of your scum-buddies got some heat and you are trying to direct eveyones attention elsewhere? nreekay324 for example has been getting some heat lately. Atm im not sure about you, you haven't posted enough for me to be sure of you. I feel you are just not reading/being stupid once again here. Alot of things in this post are plain wrong. Both of the votes on AcesAnoka(or at least Yomi's, can't say too much about nreekay324 yet) were not serious. There was never a possibilty of bandwagoning here. No you wouldn't. Having two people out of a sudden sharing their opinions on a weak case would make you look scummy as hell. It's a common way to play scum, you split your opinions. So this doesn't prove your innocence. I even said in my post that my case on you and AcesAnoka being scumbros were a weak one. But the fact that you are still seem to think highly of Acec just makes me wonder more. Once again you post a somewhat confused post. It's like you aren't reading the posts well enough because you seem to miss alot of what is happening. You are still being overly defensive imo, which is not standard town play. And you always attack the one who are suspicious of you. First WhySoMuch, then nreekay324 and last me. Have it actually struck you that we might not be suspicious of you because we are scum but rather that we actually think your play is strange? Overall I still think your just town. I don't think your play looks like town, but it doesn't look like scum either. Going to bed now, will be much more active tommorow! You just made an extremely long post criticizing everything that The_Zen_Man had done, You even say that he is being "overly defensive imo which is not standard town play" and yet your conclusion is that he is "just town". How is that possible? Then your last line you say you " don't think his play looks like town, but it doesn't look like scum either", yet you still call him a town. Why are you afraid to call him mafia, you laid out almost a whole case on him and still you think he's town? it doesn't make sense. Also your phrasing of "just town". What do you mean by this? Because while his play was confusing in the start, I strongly felt his motives didn't match the ones of scum. And if he were townie, which I still think although I'm not as certain as I was one day ago, I think he should step up his posting alot. If he is your highest scumread, then make a case. Don't just keep saying it. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 19:46 Pure-SC2 wrote: @marvellosity - you mentioned your case would have to be tomorrow as you ran out of time last night. Looking forward to it. Yea, I'm working on it. Current events are making it trickier than I anticipated, though. Cases and finger pointing all over the place. I must admit I had a town-read on Lazer. Also nreekay's case on WSM needs to be properly analysed to see if it's actually a decent case or not. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
Firstly, I would like to state that Golden is a clever and decently logical chap. I think this comes across from his posting. I am stating this as a general premise, as it removes a lot of the "what if he's just bad" possibilities from the case. The main thrust of this case is that he posts a lot of 'content', he asks a lot of questions, but in fact does little to pin down scum. His filter starts out with a few posts of fluff, which I won't hold against him as it's the beginning of the game. His first major post is this one. What does he say in this post, actually? From what I can see: 1) it's hard to get reads atm 2) telling people who haven't voted yet not to until later (???) 3) vague opinions on nreekay and yomi 4) a bunch of questions to other people. Read the whole post again. What does golden think of matters? We actually have no idea. The whole post is in essence just fluff. His next post is this: On April 27 2012 15:05 O.Golden_ne wrote: I agree Jailbreaker, we definitely need some more discourse on people actions. If you feel this voting for yomi will pressure that conversation to happen then i'm happy for you to do that. I also see this vote as a defence of WhySoMuch from Nreekay and Yomi's 'vampires&werewolves' related votes. I really need to hear from these two as soon as possible, with as much detail as they can provide. I want these votes to have a basis rather than being emotional or defensive votes. Nreekay and Yomi if you two are town you've a strange way of showing it. To me Town is represented by clear, concise and reasoned posts with references and the goal of enlightening the group. Voting for the sake of voting creates an atmosphere of defensive attitudes and alot of misplaced suspicions, please explain your motive. Still waiting from answers from several people. Golden. Bold is my emphasis. I think we know by now that 'concise' posts are certainly not golden's forte. We'll judge a little bit later on if he has in any way managed to 'enlighten' the group. Other than that, what does his post say? It agrees town needs to talk (o rly? surely not!) and then vague, pointless analysis on some of the votes so far. He finishes by saying he's awaiting answers. Still no stances on anything. Moving on, take a look at the post in the spoiler. Bold is again my emphasis + Show Spoiler + On April 27 2012 16:10 O.Golden_ne wrote: I'd be happy to, Mordanis. After analysis of that post i see how you can stipulate that i was contradictory. I've stated that perhaps Jailbreakers vote against yomi is what is required to get yomi to satisfactorily explain his actions and to maybe pressure nreekay to explain himself also. I think that Jailbreakers vote may have been a bit of a knee-jerk defence of WhySoMuch, but if it yields results with yomi and nreekay then i'll allow it. i do support a first day lynch. i dont support voting for the sake of voting. i see jailbreakers vote as an opportunity to uncover other peoples motives, even though i'd rather not have to have him pressure so hard, i'd rather we were all active and could contribute. My opinion of current votes: yomi's vote seems emotional or just misdirected agression, i need a little more proof before offering my own opinion on that matter. werewolves being gay doesnt seem like a legitimate reason for me to vote. nreekays vote seems to be a bandwagon and baseless until otherwise proven. jailbreakers vote, while perhaps it might be in the same vain as these previous two might be what is required to show some light on both their intentions. whysomuch's vote is perhaps to deflect the attention off himself. i dont feel like he has addressed yomi's vote on him particularly. like i said, i'm waiting to hear from all these people before casting my own judgement. to avoid voting for the sake of voting. Does that cover it Mordanis? I think other than that slight contradiction my posts have been to the point. thoughts? I'm not sure what Mordanis was asking, but I presume he was pushing him for being vague? Anyway, what do we have in this post - a whole bunch, again, of vague opinions on people. My first bolded section is possibly the first time he's giving an opinion on anything. But on what? He supports a lynch, and he doesn't support pointless voting. Wow. How enlightening to the group! To the final bolded bit - his posts have been to the point. What point, may I ask? It's about to get a bit more interesting. WSM obviously pressured him about all this, and we get the following: On April 27 2012 17:06 O.Golden_ne wrote: Whysomuch, I am not shrouding the fact that I havent taken any stances in fact i have made it very clear. I fully plan on making my opinions even more clear when I come up with a case. I am just not jumping to any conclusion this early in the game, before I get my facts straight. I write long posts as I don't want to be misquoted from short one liners. Also, do you feel that my posts have been contentless or have I been helpful in analyzing the current voting against you and the others? Golden Now, I wasn't around day 1, but to me - no, his posts weren't helpful in their analysis. Rather they were confusing, and his questions only furthered to cause more confusion. What would have been helpful was firm stances. Ok, but all will redeemed when, after all his 'analysis', questions, filler, and waiting, we get a nice meaty case on someone. Let's go guys! On April 28 2012 01:54 O.Golden_ne wrote: Hi everyone, So i've sat back and had a thought about how things are looking and here is my current read. I'm going to post my opinions before bed now, and then cast my vote tomorrow based on any discussion that ensues in the next few hours. Currently my top 3 suspects: 1. Nreekay324 Filter 2. AcesAnoka Filter 3. Jailbreaker Filter Reasoning: Nreekay has been very elusive. He has lurked, and then jumped on someone else's vote in a fashion that leads me to think he was aiming for a bandwagon. He has had ample time to rebut to any accusations and explain his position on WhySoMuch but has still yet to be heard from. Lurking and impulse voting, i would be happy to lynch him if he can't seriously change his act. AcesAnoka opened with some confusing statements, then lurked hard. While i understand one can't be active 24/7 i still feel like everything he has posted has been fairly fluffy with not much of substance to it. My read on his vote on yomi is that of the two (arguabley) most suspicious player (atleast, most talked about so far) yomi and nreekay, he would prefer to pick yomi: perhaps because if nreekay is mafia he wants to keep him alive. I feel nreekay appears far more scummy than yomi, and there may be a slight correlation between these two characters. JailBreaker's stance on yomi is reasoned on his assault on "lurkers". I felt this to be fairly aggressive play for mafia, thats why he is below the previous two. However the logic in his argument against yomi seems flawed, it appears he has targeted him solely for bandwagoning. His largest post to date appears that he is trying to appear helpful (a recurring theme) without doing a whole lot. For Jailbreaker to 'break' out of my 3rd place scum it wouldn't be hard, he would need to add a little more depth to his posting. Thoughts everyone? I'm reserving judgement on yomi at the present time, though his aggro play leads me to believe him to be town. His style is similar to Jailbreakers albeit it more active than re-active. The active nature makes him less suspicious to me then Jailbreakers. Currently i'm probably skeptical on yomi and he's probably next under JailBreaker. @Splinter, @WhySoMuch, @PureSC2 i get town vibes from you three, don't let me down.. @Mordanis you seem town though i'm watching you very closely as you appear very guarded. @Veriat @LazerMonkey You puzzle me. Get active or i'll start scrutinizing you alot harder and get a proper read on you. God damnit, we don't even get one case, we get fingerpointing at 3 people! Let's analyse his cases: 1) Nreekay - lurky and wifom on voting patterns. 2) Aces - lurky and fluffy (!!!). Followed by wifom on voting patterns. 3) Jailbreaker - slightly odd reasoning and trying to appear helpful. Holy shit, we wait all this time for his case, and instead we get 3 vague cases with what? calling people lurky and speculating on voting? He doesn't even bother to provide examples, just a link to their filters. Yes, we can all find the filters. But nreekay is his strongest read, right? Wrong. Followed up by another post (spoilered this time) + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 13:31 O.Golden_ne wrote: So we're drawing to the end of day one. There's been much debate so far, and unfortunately there are still several people who's post count and content is fairly light. I wish i had more to go by today but as i am pro-D1-lynch i feel we can still make progress on what we've got. It's a tough call to make, whether to kill someone on the first day or not. So far everyone has had their own take on the subject and really its some of the only information with which to substantiate cases aside from lurking and early game voting. The chances of hitting a townie is a lot higher than hitting a mafia, and in another 24 hours another one of us will be dead from the mafia. So the medic should keep and eye out for those people posting the most comprehensive arguments, as this could be a target for the mafia in the early stages of the game. as an aside, have you noticed the amusing trait of lurkers to say things like "LURKERS POST MORE!! NEED MORE CONTENT!!" In regards to my upcoming vote my read has changed after a good sleep and re-read of events. 1. AcesAnoka 2. Nreekay324 3. Veriat Reasoning: 1. AcesAnoka Your whole play is erratic. You start by strangely confirming that we shouldn't lynch first day and you post that you don't want anyone to rush voting. I like the stance of not rushing voting, however if you're adding nothing to the conversation then you are just stalling everything. Amazingly you're 3rd post includes a vote. How does this logic follow?! THEN, if you take into account the person you are voting for is yomi. Yomi's playstyle is one that you have openly criticised, however it is not too unlike your own.. just with less holes in it. Next, under the pressure i put on you and a very small explanation from yomi your vote folds. My read on you AcesAnoka is that your play reeks of either a hidden agenda (perhaps defending another scum: read Nreekay) or defensive play; Town doesn't need to be defensive. 2. Nreekay324. everything i have said previously about you i feel still stands. Your explanation post was confusing with such gems as: i'm really not sure where you stand at all on lynching now and it feel to me that once you get a little heat you've changed your opinion to a more neutral one. That being said, you've pointed your FOS at me and PureSC2 in the same post. Making me feel you're getting emotional over being targeted as you haven't particularly substantiated any claims against either of us. My read on you Nreekay, is you are an emotional impulsive player. You post little, and when you do post your opinions sway in the wind of what benefits you solely as a player than for town. You were effectively a lurker for a lot of the game, and this gives me little hope for you in terms of being an asset to town when the voting gets vicious. 3. Veriat Your lurking has earnt you Jailbreakers 3rd place. While his posts may have flaws, your posts have more. ##Vote: AcesAnoka - Suspicious. Hidden agenda. ##FoS: Nreekay324 - Defensive. Lurking & Impulsive Votes. Both these players seem very afraid to be lynched, and squirm under scrutiny. If AcesAnoka flips town i'll have to do a serious re-evaluate of everything. Golden Here his top target has changed. I find this astonishing. He spent the whole of the first day 'reading', 'analysing', getting people's answers, working things out - but in the space of consecutive posts he manages to change his mind on top scum target? Let me remind you of an earlier post: On April 27 2012 17:06 O.Golden_ne wrote: Whysomuch, I am not shrouding the fact that I havent taken any stances in fact i have made it very clear. I fully plan on making my opinions even more clear when I come up with a case. I am just not jumping to any conclusion this early in the game, before I get my facts straight. Well, we can see now he didn't do anything of the sort. All his posting leans to the fact when he finally will make a case, by god will he be sure. But no, he makes 3 'cases' followed up by changing these 3 'cases' in the very next post. Yuk. Remember I commented earlier about his only strong stances thus far being on lynching and voting? On April 27 2012 16:10 O.Golden_ne wrote: i do support a first day lynch. On April 28 2012 13:31 O.Golden_ne wrote: It's a tough call to make, whether to kill someone on the first day or not. So far everyone has had their own take on the subject and really its some of the only information with which to substantiate cases aside from lurking and early game voting. The chances of hitting a townie is a lot higher than hitting a mafia, and in another 24 hours another one of us will be dead from the mafia. So the medic should keep and eye out for those people posting the most comprehensive arguments, as this could be a target for the mafia in the early stages of the game. Well, that's a bit of an about turn, isn't it? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We're getting down to the crunch as day 1 voting is coming to an end. We've finally worked out that + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 04:50 O.Golden_ne wrote: Veriat is my current 3rd scum-read, i would be happy to see him lynched. His behaviour and activity level isn't great as stated by several of the others. I cannot tell if he is town or mafia, but as a lurker i find him useless in the debate. In his inactivity lies his downfall, however with AcesAnoka and Nreekay it is their activity that has brought about my suspicions. Which leads me to question everyone in particular those voting for Veriat. If it comes down to AcesAnoka and Veriat do we lynch the flip-flop impulse voters who lurk and post fluff, or the absent veriat who 'stands firm' in his vote with the_zen_man and has otherwise done little. I will change votes only until you can show me AcesAnoka is less of a threat than Veriat. golden does very little indeed to push his top scumread, brought about from all his analysis and jumping to conclusions. No, instead he's preparing a jump to Veriat. What is this 'less of a threat'? Why aren't you pushing your read? From within the post: On April 29 2012 04:50 O.Golden_ne wrote: Veriat is my current 3rd scum-read, i would be happy to see him lynched. What is this? You're so sure in your 3 scumreads (that you changed significantly within the space of 2 posts) that your 3rd read is good enough to vote for. Really?! Again, why isn't he pushing his #1 read? + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 06:12 O.Golden_ne wrote: @Mordanis I am willing to vote for Veriat. I've said this several times. Look, we've got one hour left.. as Veriat is on my list so i'll change my vote. I am happy to lynch him based on his general lack of team play, evident in his posts and mainly his lurking. To make this last hour easier for town i'll post my vote now so that it is confirmed. However before i do this remember that no matter what the outcome of todays lynch we have to consider Nreekay and AcesAnoka. I still have strong reads on these players and i will cross-reference their actions to how the lynch pans out when i am better rested. If Veriat flips town i will want to question those pushing for Veriats lynch over AcesAnoka. If Veriat flips mafia perhaps our town will be a little more unified. Either way, we will have one less voter and one less lurker. Here comes the end of our first day. ##Unvote AcesAnoka ## Vote: Veriat "If Veriat flips town i will want to question those pushing for Veriats lynch over AcesAnoka." - this is interesting, not for the Veriat flipping town bit, but the irony of wanting to question people pushing a read when he did nothing of the sort. From the post for emphasis On April 29 2012 06:12 O.Golden_ne wrote: no matter what the outcome of todays lynch we have to consider Nreekay and AcesAnoka. I still have strong reads on these players At the risk of repeating myself, where are the evidenced based cases and where is your pushing these reads? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post day-1 vote. On April 29 2012 07:07 O.Golden_ne wrote: Since we have started i have maintained an outlook preferring to take in the whole picture and analyse play before making any judgment. This point bears repeating. His taking in the whole picture and analysing play led him to both changing the personnel and the order of his suspicions in the space of two posts. On April 29 2012 13:38 O.Golden_ne wrote: Holy crap, I was just away from my computer and I'm not sure if im delirious from these strange hours I've been keeping but I've had a thought and rushed back to check the thread. Please hear me out, I know it's night and it makes it a very dangerous time to be posting something like this for fear of getting shot but i really want to put it out there regardless. Here goes. So AcesAnoka wasn't modkilled, perhaps this is because it would have led to TWO mafia being killed in the first day which is almost unheard of. Leaves me open to a snipe tonight but I will be asking everyone for their support In a lynch of AcesAnoka in day 2. Thoughts? Golden What the fuck is this? As per my intro, golden is a clever boy. But this post is unbelievably stupid wifom on why Aces got replaced and not mod-killed. What makes it so much worse is that he uses this as justification for wanting to push Aces (my) lynch. This is really scummy, folks. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At this point I learn golden is leaving us. But the case continues and the points still stand. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We now get a mega-post from golden. + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 10:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: This is a solid read, please re-read it as it has alot of analysis and i don't want any of it missed. Hi again everyone, back into coherent analysis mode after a massive binge sleep and a re-set of my body clock! There are several important points worth noting for our lynch in Day 2 in regards to Veriats lynching and Yomi's assassination. I feel that i should also give my analysis on WhySoMuch as he has already voted for me today and i should post a rebut, as we need every single accurate vote today because we are 1 townie vote down out of 10. There are 8 town left and we need a majority of 6 and mafia are unlikely to vote for themselves! But let me explain that after the main analysis of this post. In the light of Veriat's lynching: Veriats lynching was a great positive step for the group so early on in the game. He did nothing for the group and was lurking. Now that Veriat has been evicted from the group it renders the Mafia unable to hide under the guise of lurker. The group has accurately sniped a lurker and promoted that active play is what is expected from one of us. Veriat is the prime example of a lurking, hiding mafia, now i fear we will see the rise of either of two kinds of Mafia. A soft-spoken yet explanatory "sponge" Mafia, who will easily slip into someone like WhySoMuch's ill-explained town-lists under the guise of participation and in the safety of assumed mutual innocence. Or a second type of which i have my own suspicions but i will keep to myself until i can be 100% sure. You will have to trust me on this one. In the light of Yomi's assassination: Unfortunately they got yomi. He was dangerous to the Mafia because he was erratic, but maybe even more dangerous because he was right. I see no reason for them to snipe yomi as a #1 priority, there were several other out-spoken target which could have yielded better results for them. I have shown a level of insight, WhySoMuch has shown to be aggro and effective in persuading votes at the end of deadline, Pure-SC2 have also given some good points. So perhaps it [i]was[i/] because of his inclination to get things right?. If you look at yomi's feed he voted WhySoMuch, Nreekay and finally Veriat. I'm glad 7 of us got to Veriat in the end, but yomi voted him first shortly after he appeared #3 on my mafia list. Yomi's strength may have been in his ability to "get it right", however his weakness in my eyes was his little posting. It would have been great to know his thoughts after the DAY1 lynch, especially his thoughts on a top 3 suspect list. I think that the reason they shot him was because while he may not have been a provider of new idea's, he was a provider of solid voting. Shooting an idea-provider would be greatly substantial for the Mafia in the early game so why didn't they? WhySoMuch could have been an ideal target and he even noted it himself so he binged out idea's in the night time. I thought that perhaps if WhySoMuch was shot than i would consider his idea's posted to be given a little more credence than i have (read below), but that is moot as he hasn't been shot. THIS the fact that he wasn't shot makes him slightly suspicious, as who would be able to spew ideas in the night time and not get shot? Perhaps a Mafia who want's to incriminate someone who has been contributing to the group with a 'legitimate nightime argument' without any contest. This is highly strange behaviour. He wasn't sniped, and his idea has gone uncontested. If WhySoMuch was mafia and his position on me was known in Day 1 and i was sniped he would be considered suspicious. So he gave his idea's hoping they will be absorbed on the record, but unchallenged and so he could use them for his benefit at a later date ("oh woops we sniped a townie, what? justify why he's my target? WELL, i commented about him at night, surely he would have sniped me") all the while sniping a solid voter town. My opinion of WhySoMuch and his vote on me. You've tried very hard to set yourself up as the 'Champion of the Veriat lynch', however as i see it you voted 3 times yesterday within rapid succession. Then by admitting 'your townies' had voted for another player you jumped on a bandwagon, which i see as very loose play. By doing that you 'won over' a cheap sort of allegiance with these players, you seem to be trying to foster some surface level friendships with these players and then persecute me for not quickly jumping between 'bandwagons'. My vote on AcesAnoka was reasoned and explained and you've belittled it with this style of play. Yes, Veriat was mafia. Yes, i didn't change vote quickly. Is it more suspect to change votes quickly just before lynch time if you've explained your stance in great detail previously? I feel my style has been efficient in gathering information on players. I also feel that had i changed quickly you would have found me suspicious also. I was going to change votes in due course and i did, which was explained in my posts which you never seem to comprehend. You worry me, you don't read very deeply into the game or into other peoples posts. I have had trouble with many of your responses to questions asked of you in regards to content and your stubborn attitude. I've answered your suspicions of me and you seem very against me. This stubborn attitude should be alleviated and you should read deeper into everyone's posts not just people who don't emerge on your core group of villagers. Please keep your vote on me until you decide with a little more consideration who is Mafia, because i assure you with 100% conviction i am Town, and that i am an asset to the Town. On a side note that you've said there is a 'core group of villages emerging' with little explanation of this town list (Bar the_zen_man) compared this to the depth your 'explanation' of your vote for me. This could be worrisome as mafia could easily slip into your Town list. Your initial justification of your vote against Veriat was fairly slim which you rectified with some loose quoting, but lynching him wasn't because of your pressure on me. If you create a group of innocents in your mind please dont let this cloud your 'bull in a china shop' analysis of players. @WhySoMuch: I am not suspicious of you as mafia. I think you are a very surface level thinking, stubborn and aggressive town. Please explain N1 to me. @People who may consider WhySoMuch suspicious: In his defence, while he may have some contradictory and flip-flop opinions towards the end of day one and had a very strong conviction to get a lynch he was much more active and aggressive than i would expect even of an aggressive mafia. @Nreekay324 How do you reason this argument now. In the hindsight that Yomi was actually innocent. It makes your play look very squirmy under the pressure you were recieveing. Explain. What a fucking huge post. But what's in it? A bunch of speculation on the lynch and yomi's death. Some kind of long answer to WhySoMuch. But what of his scumreads? We have two lines that vaguely fingerpoint at nreekay. And absolutely nothing on his top scumread, Aces. I don't even know how it's possible to make such a long post without pushing scumreads at all - the mind boggles. On May 01 2012 11:23 O.Golden_ne wrote: 1. Nreekay324 You posted a decent argument against Jailbreaker in a spoiler on your D1 Summary post. Nreekay324's Filter What would it take to change your vote from AcesAnoka (marvellosity) in the same post, to Jailbreaker? I feel like your argument against Jailbreaker looks stronger than this one against AcesAnoka (marvellosity): Let's look at this. As far as I can see, here he is asking his #2 scumread to take his vote off his #1 scumread on the basis of his case against Jailbreaker. What has golden had to say about Jailbreaker? Jack shit except for his vague fingerpointing earlier (which he effectively removed by replacing Jailbreaker with Veriat). On May 02 2012 10:24 O.Golden_ne wrote: damnit, I'm less pissed off about lynching jail breaker as I am splinter going MIA. He was mostly active it feels like he could have helped us out. My opinion on booting jail breaker was tht if he flipped mafia then I was going to aim at nreekay (autocorrect on my iPhone corrects that as meerkat) on day 3 but if he flipped town then I was going back to acesanoka(marvelossity). I just feel that I let marvelossity slide on my suspicions as he was a lot more active and I didn't read into his play as hard come day 2. Tonight I'll re-read day 2 and tomorrow I'll post what I suspect of marvel RIP yomi RIP jailbreaker RIP splinter Golden This post just reeks of scum. Look at his stance on Jailbreaker - "if he flipped scum... if he flipped town". It very much sounds like he wasn't voting for Jailbreaker because he was convinced he's scum, but kinda... just because. He posted nothing himself on why Jailbreaker should be scum. Day 1 he let the Veriat lynch go through without pushing his reads. Day 2 he was happy with the Jailbreaker lynch despite not actually calling him scummy and again failing to push his own reads in any way. Summary: Golden makes very long posts, often mostly fluff, speculation, or questions. He happily bandwagons on to votes. He never makes a substantial case against anyone and he never pushes his own reads, which aren't even solid when they are promised. Effectively, he has done nothing to hunt scum. This guy is super scummy. ##Vote: O.golden_ne (or whomever his replacement is) | ||
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On May 03 2012 23:32 Pure-SC2 wrote: Looks a good case to me. You highlighted some points that went way over my head in my own review of Golden's filter. Will enjoy a nice cuppa tea and then go through it again and check it against my own thoughts. Only thing I really don't get, why would he switch vote to Veriat? Even if Veriat looked suspicious, if he didn't get voted day 1 he'd still have to be voted for day 2, meaning more mafia in the game for longer. Well you know I don't much like to speculate on voting, but 1) gaining cred for a scum lynch 2) assessing Veriat as a liability, so bussing him to deal with it now and for 1) | ||
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On May 04 2012 01:04 Pure-SC2 wrote: EBWOP: Golden mentions Lazer only once, early on with 2 others saying they needed to post more. Never responds to Lazers pressure on him related to the vote on Veriat. We only need to nail 1 at a time ^^ | ||
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On May 04 2012 01:17 Pure-SC2 wrote: Yea, but I like pretty pictures in my head where everything lines up and looks... pretty. I counter your pretty pictures with Newbie VIII where town raped themselves by connecting people who hadn't even flipped yet. Imo it's newbie town's #1 error in general. | ||
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On May 04 2012 02:15 WhySoMuch wrote: Lol, yes of course, I think Golden has been a mafia since day 2 but figured it was fruitless to push the point. I agree with everything you've said in your post, but I think Lazer is more likely to be a mafia at this point. Town don't lie about things that Lazer has clearly lied about. Mixed with all of his other posts, his play doesn't make sense as a Town. However,We need 5 of 6 town votes to lynch a mafia today so I will switch to Golden if he appears to be more likely lynch then lazer. What did he lie about? The fact he may or may not have gone to bed? Or something else I missed. If you agree with my case, I would think it's rather more compelling than the one on Lazer. I am happy to discuss lynch candidates, but if we're going to lynch Lazer I want a consolidated case from you of why we should do so rather than golden, with evidence and stuffs. | ||
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I had a look at your filter and I see a mish-mash of general accusations without anything substantial, but I may have missed it somehow. | ||
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On May 04 2012 02:48 WhySoMuch wrote: It's the two posts you call "general accusations". I don't need to write out a long post in order for it to be a case. Why do you think Lazer is a town? Ok, let me get this straight. You are convinced Lazer is mafia because he went to bed (read: he did not say asleep) and caught up on the thread on his phone and because he criticised Zen's play but doesn't have a mafia read on him (which he explained subsequently). Yet you think Golden is mafia, you agree with everything I said in my case, yet Lazer is still the best target? I don't get it. I don't believe Lazer is town necessarily, I just don't think the burden of evidence on him is higher than that of Golden. Why do you think Lazer is more likely given you have thought of Golden as scum + you agree with my case? | ||
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On May 04 2012 03:03 nreekay324 wrote: Okay, angel=medic, I get what you were saying now. But, isn't that kinda detrimental to the town if the angel/medic does that? I mean the best we gain is a confirmed townie through the clues. But if the mafia reads up on these clues, then they have an easy target (the medic). Also, if we, as a town, try to help cover it up by throwing out decoy clues, then doesn't that just muddy up everything and give the mafia a chance to throw out decoy clues that could be really misleading to us? Anyway, this could be arbitrary as there could be a veteran that took the hit. This conversation is interesting, because after the day post I was quite close to suggesting that the medic claim. Because barring a counter-claim, having 2 very likely townies is very useful for narrowing down the search. In the end my plan was to ask the medic to claim right at the end of the next night - that way he still gets his actions in, can tell us what he's done, and as we'll have 1 less (probably 2 less after night) players, narrowing down the field is very helpful. I hadn't actually realised Veteran was possible in this setup - probably Veteran shoud just be quiet and take the hits I guess. Re: breadcrumbs/'subtle clues' - the point is that you shouldn't be able to find them easily by just reading posts, but once pointed out the pattern is clear. | ||
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WSM - My evidence was both quantity and quality. "I don't need a fancy case" does NOT persuade the rest of town to vote along with you, and if you really think someone is scum, you should want town to vote with you. I also don't put as much faith into this 'lie' as you put it. My other half regularly goes to bed and reads twitter/other shit on his phone before he sleeps. I don't like the idea of lynching someone for what may or may not be a 'lie' when my case brings recurring and hard evidence of golden's failure to scumhunt. | ||
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On May 04 2012 03:15 WhySoMuch wrote: Yes, I know, I go to bed and spend 30 min on my phone, but he said he couldn't change his vote. That is the whole part that makes this scummy. You can't follow along and then not be able to change his vote. I obviously hadn't looked at your post clearly enough. I thought the lie was simply he went asleep but also followed the thread. Right, it looks pretty bad. At the very least he needs to respond to it, which he has not. | ||
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On May 04 2012 03:46 Pure-SC2 wrote: On my phone so excuse brevity. Look at what I posted/quoted on Lazer. Initially states he is out (not home) and following on mobile. Then, when making his case on why he was one of the ones who didnt vote Veriat, says he was home, and didnt follow it as he went to bed early. This is a massive difference. Unless I'm mistaken, he didn't say he was home - he just said he went to bed early. But yes, I do agree with you/WSM that it looks pretty nasty. | ||
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On May 04 2012 18:38 Pure-SC2 wrote: I feel like we're being messed with here. Sexdoll signs up to the forum Tuesday, his first ever post is offering himself up as a replacement in this game. Then we get this whole charade? WhySoMuch "knows" Sexdoll from some other site, they have this nice little byplay - oh he's actually younguns there lol lol, heyya babe, and of course Sexdoll knows him and he is likely a villager based on his experience with him. Isn't that sweet, the internet suddenly seems like such a small happy place, where two people who played something similar on another site manage to not only end up in the same game on this site, but have all this experience playing together. I think it's one of two things. 1). They are the same person and totally fucking with us. This was my first impression based on Sexdolls posts. 2). They are friends who are communicating out of band and acting like they aren't. I don't like it at all. Marv, I'm going to spend the next bit going over your case on Golden. It read good the first time but there were a few things I wanted to look at closer. Don't you think it's weird that WhySoMuch has dropped his number 1 scum read on Golden? His reason initially was that he didn't think anyone would support it, so now you've made a good case, why the hell isn't he even pushing it? Vague nods to this whole post. The whole situation is retarded. I'm afraid I've stopped thinking about this game in any way, so I will not be able to answer any questions you have. I will vote whichever way town tells me to vote. | ||
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Yes, I'm moaning at the hosts right now. | ||
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On May 05 2012 00:40 nreekay324 wrote: Agreeably, Golden's concise and clear posting is indicative of him being clever/calculated. But does this really mean that he's a mastermind mafia as well? If the mafia had intentionally planned for veriat to be bussed from the start, and they were all clear about this, then it makes sense that the mafia wouldn't be the last vote (more likely the first vote). But this is making many assumptions about Golden, and the mafia. This leads me to wonder things like, what if Veriat opted-out mid-day1 and Golden decided he'd rather be on the bandwagon when he flips then off? Sure, he didn't get definitive credit for the veriat lynch, but what if he was just trying to get (at least some) town credibility in general? What if he was just annoyed at veriat, and as the opportunity presented itself, he just decided to boot him? I'll re-read the case against Golden, Jailbreaker's response/apology, and try looking at WSM again; but I think Marv's case against Golden is the best lead right now. This replacement stuff is really confusing reads though (not directed at you specifically sexdoll, but as there have been two replacements, it's annoying.) A bunch of supersolid points that I didn't have the energy to make for myself. An extra one being Also, when ppl say stuff like, x,y and z are my top scum reads atm, then proceed to push z over x, that doesn't mean theyre complacent to lynch whoever or that they're contradicting themselves by not pushing x super hard. It just shows a slight lack of confidence in all of the reads, which is totally normal. This is a game of vague information. One of the main points of the case was that Golden took so damn long making up his mind, constantly stating that he wouldn't make scumreads until he was sure. But then when he did he changed them immediately. Bad. Re: replacements. I totally agree with you, and I know it must have been really hard for the rest of you when I replaced in (especially as Aces had already been suspicious). Imo replacing someone at the end of day 1 for not voting is just about acceptable (although difficult for everyone), replacing midway through Day 3 is simply not. | ||
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On May 05 2012 00:46 SexDoll wrote: If there is ever a plan for scum to bus each other, they're going to make sure that they are the ones who get credit for lynching their bro. They do this by pushing them hard and leading the lynch. If a strategy was involved, tacking on was not part of it. You seem to be missing what nreekay is saying. Specifically the bit in bold. People do not always behave in either the optimal way or the way you would expect them to. | ||
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On May 05 2012 00:53 SexDoll wrote: I'm making assumptions because of my experience and my intuition. I like to think I'm a pretty good judge of character Yes, and my experience has taught me that making assumptions such as those can lead you to the wrong results. "It's my intuition" is neither an offence nor a defence. | ||
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On May 05 2012 00:54 Pure-SC2 wrote: One thing I thought about yesterday, was how Golden opted out the moment the pressure really came on, i.e, 40 minutes after Marv states: 40 minutes later, Golden posts that he's pulling out of the game. That's one way to avoid the pressure on you and meaning you don't have to answer a case I suppose. Pure - WIFOM territory here, but did you notice Nova Terra specifically pointed out that it was cheating to get yourself mod-killed for nefarious reasons? Pretty pointless speculation actually, but there we go My apathy is starting to disappear. Let's lynch SexDoll. | ||
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On May 05 2012 00:58 SexDoll wrote: the best way to determine ppls roles is to try to find their motivations and thought processes. There are situations where if you put yourself in the shoes of the scum, you will see that there is a clear and easy decision for them to make in certain circumstances. The assumption that I'm making is that scum tend to think more about how their interactions/cases/votes will make them look to the townspeople. This is a perfectly reasonable assumption. Once this assumption is made, the rest of what I said about bussing is just common sense Yes, but not everything is always as planned as that, and things move fast. Take this as a scenario: 1 - Aces was leading the lynch by 4-2 (5-2?) and so was looking likely to be lynched. Scum are quite happy 2 - Golden makes his 3 scumread cases, not including Veriat 3 - Suddenly pressure is heaped on Veriat and he starts receiving votes 4 - Golden changes his 3 scumreads to include Veriat 5 - As he'd been forced to include Veriat as a scumread, he couldn't just hop on to the wagon straight away as Aces was his strongest read, so he waited until later when it appeared Veriat was the only viable option | ||
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1) we lynch sexfiend/golden on the strength of my case (and other's suspicions) and that's that 2) we let him off because he isn't golden Both scenarios are a long way from ideal. | ||
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On May 05 2012 02:08 Mordanis wrote: Well, we obviously need to keep moving forward, and Golden/SexDoll are probably the best vote right now. As much as I hate easy lynches, I don't see any other option right now. ## Vote: SexDoll How is this an 'easy lynch'? You scum bro? | ||
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WSM and SexDoll mafia team? | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: SexDoll | ||
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On May 04 2012 14:33 Lazermonkey wrote: Okay so I have somewhat of a confession to make regarding the Phone-Veriat thing. I wasn't following in on my phone, I did not go to bed 22:00. Why did I write this? Well, I was fucking scared of the possiblity to get lynched. Last game I several times posted stupid thing all the time which resulted in me getting misslynched D2(aka I was townie). Before the D1 lynch I was not convinced at all that Veriat was scum. So I wanted to apear good townie in not voting for him as 95% of D1 lynches end in a misslynch. After Veriats flip I understood that my I understood that my Vote on Aces would look rather suspicious so I decided to ignore the Veriat-case for quite some time in order to avoid suspicion. When I posted my case before the night post I wanted to underline the fact that I was unable to change my vote, which of course wasn't true. Was just a really something I wrote in panic-mode, trying to throw of the suspicion of me. I'm sorry for this! Bleh, I kinda buy this | ||
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On May 05 2012 06:36 WhySoMuch wrote: Because you just don't see that? It means themafia are not blending in with the crowd and mafia try to blend Then mafia is on the bus. What's your point? | ||
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On May 05 2012 19:19 Pure-SC2 wrote: The sad thing is that I thought Sexdoll did a good job of answering the case against Golden, but I couldn't take it seriously because of the case against Golden, the way he left (right after it was clear a case was being made against him), and the unsurity I had about Sexdoll coming in as a replacement. Yes, agreed. What are you supposed to do with a replacement though, the whole thing sucked. More thoughts before daypost | ||
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Pre-day scumreads: 2 of WSM, Mordanis, nreekay For some reason my gut says Lazer is town but I don't quite know how to explain it | ||
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Mordanis -> nreekay Leaves LazerMonkey/WSM Personally my gut-read is lazer is town but my gut read has been wrong. These 2 should be our next 2 lynches regardless | ||
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##Vote: Lazermonkey | ||
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However sometimes they are correct (gut read in LIII was that Ottoxlol was town despite everyone but one believing he was scum). But yes, I may be incorrect. I'm pretty bad at finding scum as it happens. | ||
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I don't like to take these things for granted, so at some point (where I am not quite drunk and not at home) I will do so to make sure they check all the boxes | ||
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Props to town for lynching scum day 1. Props to Mordanis for the ballsy vig-shot and Zen Man for the save. Turns out this game the simple explanation was the right one - no scum votes on Veriat at all. | ||
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On May 07 2012 02:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I can write a long post-game analysis later, but the main problem this game was Mafia did absolutely nothing in Day 1 which led to Town lynching a Mafia by chance, which near-confirmed a ton of people and made it near impossible to win from there. The rest of the game was neigh impossible from that starting point for Mafia. Yeah, I found it impossible to believe Mafia would just sit there and let Veriat get lynched, but apparently that's what happened o.o | ||
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