|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 26 2012 10:03 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 09:51 Radfield wrote:On April 26 2012 09:44 Forumite wrote:On April 26 2012 09:24 Radfield wrote:On April 25 2012 08:31 VisceraEyes wrote:
How do you feel about MrZentor? I feel like a lot of people were throwing around "town" a lot in conjunction with MrZentor, so the fact that he didn't die overnight is kinda surprising to me. Taken with his mystifying self-vote immediately into D2, what do you think about him now? Straight up bizarre. No town player should have been remotely suspecting Zentor to get night-killed. There was no way mafia would ever kill him, he was way too massive of a distraction. If you are a townie, ask yourself this: Did you remotely expect Zentor to get killed night 1? I disagree with your analsis in this case. A scummy player who narrowly avoid a lynch sounds like a prime target for a vigi-shot. We are at the same place we were yesterday before the lynch, a nightkill on MrZentor would have given us back this day. Radfield, what about the MrZentor lynch? I agree with that. Zentor getting vigged would be likely, but that is NOT what VE is referring to. He is specifically postulating that it's strange Zentor was not killed by mafia, even if he doesn't explicitly say it. I bet VE will even confirm that. Why couldn´t he be talking about MrZentor getting shot by a vigilante? That statement doesn´t make sense unless he was talking about a vigishot. Like you said, there´s no way mafia would kill him, but a vigi might.
He specifically says that a lot of people thought Zentor was town. Why would you expect someone who lots of people think is town to get vigged? You wouldn't, you'd expect them to get shot by mafia.
Lots of people think is scum -> Expect Vig hit
Lots of people think is town -> Expect Mafia hit
Yes?
prplhz, I'll respond to you in the morning.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
So much for me pushing the VE lynch  My time is far too limited to do the things I want to this game. I'll be on later tonight.
Anyways, I will vote Zentor at crunch time if need be, as we surely don't need another day of this.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
A shocking turn of events. Perhaps now we can focus on actual candidates.
If anyone mentions lynching bluelightz tomorrow(our other easy lynch) I'm going to be very sad.
Time to go in depth on Phagga. + Show Spoiler +I saw your posts Phagga, and I wasn't ignoring you. I've just been short of time to put in the legwork necessary to go beyond an initial bare bones scum-read.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
However, shame on Zentor for me putting in 10 times more effort defending him than he was himself.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
There is no way we are lynching bluelightz tomorrow, and I don't even have a READ on him yet(let alone think he is town). But Bluelightz posts are so random and bouncy that ANYONE can make a half-assed case without trying.
A bluelightz lynch will get us no more info than a zentor lynch did. Ask yourself Ace, have we really learned anything from lynching Zentor? Almost every mislynch you learn a tremendous amount of information... unless of course you pick some weak townie who's hardly playing and everyone piles on. There is going to be very little to discern scum from town on the zentor wagon(though I imagine scum were not the ones pushing hard for his lynch).
Tomorrow we do things my way. We actually scumhunt, we build cases, we discuss and we don't just drop back on some weak bluelightz case. (unless someone want's to build a serious and thought out case on bluelightz, which I have no problem with)
Only 8 minutes and you made me sad Ace 
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 27 2012 08:20 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 08:12 Radfield wrote:There is no way we are lynching bluelightz tomorrow, and I don't even have a READ on him yet(let alone think he is town). But Bluelightz posts are so random and bouncy that ANYONE can make a half-assed case without trying. A bluelightz lynch will get us no more info than a zentor lynch did. Ask yourself Ace, have we really learned anything from lynching Zentor? Almost every mislynch you learn a tremendous amount of information... unless of course you pick some weak townie who's hardly playing and everyone piles on. There is going to be very little to discern scum from town on the zentor wagon(though I imagine scum were not the ones pushing hard for his lynch). Tomorrow we do things my way. We actually scumhunt, we build cases, we discuss and we don't just drop back on some weak bluelightz case. (unless someone want's to build a serious and thought out case on bluelightz, which I have no problem with) Only 8 minutes and you made me sad Ace hold up playa - I didn't say we WILL lynch him. I said he's the easy lynch. I think we did learn plenty from Zentor's lynch: 1.) You and/or Bluelightz knew ahead of time that he was innocent because one of you is Scum. I think BL is the easy lynch precisely because of this. He didn't actually address the arguments against Zentor. Just calling out suspects with every new post. 2.) Even if you think the Zentor lynch was easy everyone knew it was coming. There is NO way anyone that is competent at this game would have let someone playing like that live. Just because it was easy doesn't mean it was bad. Once again - look at his posts and look at my post outlining how the chain of events happened. Address those points if you want to defend this lynch. Don't worry about being sad though, I'm here to make everything better.
1) That is awfully simplistic, and an obviously incorrect way of scumhunting. Also who cares if he's calling out suspects with every new post? Initially you were bent out of shape because you felt he was redirecting away from a mafia lynch. Yet that is obviously not the case as Zentor was town, so presumably bluelightz goes from someone fighting for a scum buddy, to simply an eager townie looking for scum. Why are you trying to set him up for a Day 3 lynch?
2) I am a competent player and I would have let Zentor live. Zentor had done nothing that screamed scum and had spotlighted himself in a way very few scum ever would.
Regardless, Zentor is dead and multiple town players were convinced of his guilt. Had he not died today he would have only been a distraction moving forward.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'm not really convinced that Phagga is scum. Upon further inpection his posting actually seems ok.
I had not even realized that only 2 scum was a possibility. I was obviously reading the C9++ setup wrong.
At any rate, it seems fairly likely that we don't have a lot of power roles this game. Consider:
No masons, as they would've claimed
No jailkeepers, as no on claimed a roleblock
No vigilantes fired on N1
No Serial Killer, as there was only 1 kill(possibly overlap though)
1 1-shot Cop, likely no second full cop.
No roleblockers, again as no one claimed a roleblock. This is doubly important, as combined with no SK it means we know the setup exactly:
1 Goon, 1 Godfather, 1 Town Power role(me). Unless I've messed up on reading, this is the setup.
This means that if Ace is scum, there is actually a 50% chance that I failed on my check, and there was only a single player in the game that I could actually get a positive result from.
This actually makes me feel a lot better both about my constant scum-read from Ace, as well as my glut of town reads.
Ace, you mentioned VE was number 3 scum on your list, and I assume Zentor was #1. Who was you're number 2?
Phagga, what are your scum reads right now?
prplhz, your Day 2 contributions have been very lacking. Now that Zentor is nice and dead, where do you see the scum lying?
On April 26 2012 07:18 Snarfs wrote:
Before we get all crazy with the "maybe snarfs", know that VE is right at the top of my scum list. My vote on MrZentor is more a policy vote than a scum vote. I'm trying my best to find scum and it felt like his actions were undermining that goal.
This is some weak weak sauce Snarfs. I have been trying to find scum too, and Zentor impinged not one bit on my abilities to do so. Why is VE at the top of your scum list? Who else do you see as scum right now? Who is unlynchablely town in your eyes(and why)?
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 27 2012 09:56 Ace wrote:
What you deem as an incorrect way of scumhunting, I see as a golden opportunity for Scum to buy cred. And since I've done it multiple times myself as Scum I think I would know it when I see it.
Majority of the Town thinks Player A is Scum. Scum knows Player A is innocent, gets on any wagon not involving Player A. When Player A flips Town goes with the "I told you so!" rhetoric.
This is why BEFORE Zentor flipped I outlined that no one attacked the case on Mr.Zentor but instead brought up new suspects to divert the wagon. Go ahead and REREAD the thread. If I'm wrong - show me. Show me where anyone had an actual breakdown of the cases on Zentor being wrong instead of "I don't think a Townie would act like this". Saying zentor did nothing that screamed out he is Scum is just comical.
Look I know the drill, and I've obviously done it before as scum too. I just strongly object the way that you are setting up bluelightz for a Day 3 lynch, based mainly off the fact that he refused to vote for a now confirmed town, and instead searched about for better targets. It's simplistic to say that of the two players NOT voting for Zentor, one of us is scum. It is not far fetched at all for the entire mafia team to pile on Zentor, particularly if we're looking at a two player team.
There was no case on Zentor to even attack. No one could dispute his actions, you can only dispute his motivations - were they mafia motivated to mess up a thread, or just a bored trolling townie. That is not something you can debate or attack, you can only state your opinion on the matter.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 27 2012 10:06 Ace wrote:
BL is my #2 Scum read.
It's impossible for there to be only 2 Scum in a 13 player set up.
Why do you say that?
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
Am I reading the setup options wrong?
Bugs, it having a 2 player scum team one possible setup of a C9++?
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Marvellosity, how did you go from having a town read on Zentor Day 1. Defending him 3 separate times, to this:
On April 25 2012 06:26 marvellosity wrote:
I really don't get why Radfield has a town read on Zentor.
Zentor is being actively unhelpful. In fact that's all he's doing. Where is this town read coming from?
On April 25 2012 06:47 marvellosity wrote:
I'm going to say it again. I don't understand Radfield's strong town-read on Zentor at all, when he's only been unconstructive.
Is this not odd?
Really? After having your own town read on him and then slowly swaying towards wanting to lynch him, you can no longer fathom how someone else might still have a town read on him?
You had a town read, though yours changed,
I had a town read, though mine did not.
Why was that so hard to fathom? Keep in mind I understand how you derived your scum read, I just don't see where your confusion comes from about my town read.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
First two are just you stating Zentor didn't care about defending himself, which he obviously didn't. No one can dispute that(though bluelightz actually tries ).
The third has some points, though mainly just conjecture about Zentor's actions.
The thing is, bluelightz defended Zentor long before his lynch was assured, and also actually responded to two of your posts that you linked. Eventually he just stops focusing on Zentor as his lynch was pretty much assured, and moves on to looking for scum. A completely appropriate and townie thing to do. He never just barges in and calls everyone stupid for voting an obvious townie, nor does he try to set himself up to look good after Zentor's death. He simply refuses to vote for someone he has a town read on. I don't get why you think that is scummy.
On April 25 2012 21:59 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 21:27 Ace wrote:
bluelightz: There is a problem with saying the Zentor lynch is moving too easily - yesterday it barely moved at all. If you're going to assume Zentor is innocent based on the wagon moving too fast, then what about yesterday when it stalled?
The case on Zentor is solid enough that it isn't unreasonable to expect his lynch to actually MOVE today. The problem is that from past experiences with Zentor I feel that he is town, and we will mislych today because he doesnt bother to defend himself, AGAIN. Comparing to: SoAF Mafia, where he was all trololol day 2 till his claim and reads.
The funny thing is bluelightz was pretty much bang on with Zentor. He was actually all trololol up until his Day 2 reads.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 27 2012 10:24 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 10:22 Radfield wrote:Marvellosity, how did you go from having a town read on Zentor Day 1. Defending him 3 separate times, to this: On April 25 2012 06:26 marvellosity wrote:
I really don't get why Radfield has a town read on Zentor.
Zentor is being actively unhelpful. In fact that's all he's doing. Where is this town read coming from? On April 25 2012 06:47 marvellosity wrote:
I'm going to say it again. I don't understand Radfield's strong town-read on Zentor at all, when he's only been unconstructive.
Is this not odd? Really? After having your own town read on him and then slowly swaying towards wanting to lynch him, you can no longer fathom how someone else might still have a town read on him? You had a town read, though yours changed, I had a town read, though mine did not. Why was that so hard to fathom? Keep in mind I understand how you derived your scum read, I just don't see where your confusion comes from about my town read. Because having been called out on his weirdness, he just got trollier, more destructive, and more unhelpful as time went on. His behaviour just deteriorated to the point where "he's done stuff like this before" stops flying. After a point I cannot fathom a town motivation for how he continued to behave
Townies do the ALL THE TIME
I just don't get why you thought my town-read was so baffling, when after Day 1 you had a town read yourself on Zentor.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Cool, I thought maybe you were just clarifying your own read. It doesn't really matter though, as I don't really think you're scum right now.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree Marv. Zentors play this game was pretty poor. I'd like to hope that he was in the process of picking up his game though.
Snarfs, I agree with most of that. Keep in mind as well that if this is actually a 2 scum(1 godfather) game, my dt check means pretty much nothing.
Does anyone disagree with my setup assessment? With zero claimed roleblocks and no SK, I think we can safely assume that we have 1 goon 1 godfather and 1 power role.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree I will most likely be tonight's target. Vigilantes should be firing tonight.
If I DO die, nothing should be concluded about VE's alignment from that. There is simply too much WIFOM to trace my death to VE's innocence or guilt.
On April 27 2012 11:10 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 11:01 Radfield wrote:
Does anyone disagree with my setup assessment? With zero claimed roleblocks and no SK, I think we can safely assume that we have 1 goon 1 godfather and 1 power role. I don't like putting too much weight into setup speculation. Bugs is neither going to confirm nor deny how many scum we have. Whether we have 2 or 3 mafia, we still need to start by lynching 2.
This is not setup speculation. We are dealing with facts.
No one has claimed roleblocked, this is a fact.
Only 1 KP last night, this is a fact.
We can deduce from this that there is very likely no roleblocker, and most likely no Serial Killer. That only leaves one possible setup: 1 goon, 1 godfather, 1 town power role. That is very important.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Actually, I suppose it is a bit of speculation, but it's pretty well grounded. Mostly I just want people to double check my work.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Actually, we know how the setup is derived: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
If you accept that there is no mafia roleblocker, that leaves only 3 possible setups. If you further accept that there is no Serial Killer, that only leaves 1 possible setup. Agreed?
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 28 2012 04:38 strongandbig wrote:
(b), however, is where I get a bit suspicious. Even though I can understand the motivation of wanting to stay alive, it seems like a mini like this one where something like half the players are known mafia veterans would be the worst one to start a conscious change in meta as a townie. First, it's bound to raise suspicion unnecessarily from players who are known good readers of meta. Second, even if a domineering and very active town style tends to attract mafia guns in normal games, in a game like this one where there's plenty of veteran targets, it seems odd to be so worried about getting killed quickly - especially when VE himself has posted about how stacked this town is and how he couldn't be a leader in it. Third, and related to the first two, VE should have known that he would be making himself an easy vote park for scum by changing up his playstyle on purpose.
I think this is an excellent point. I'm at work right now, and may not last the night, but I'm fairly convinced VE is scum. I'm pretty sure that other than defending himself, he has done absolutely nothing for a long time.
I'm also not married to my DT check on Ace. His play this game reeks of scum.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I actually still haven't gone back and looked at marvellosity's play in Newbie VI. I think the prospect of comparing one-liners is too tedious a task for me, because I've put it off like 5 times
Also, you were not the only person suspicious of Ace. There is a reason I checked him after all. Not to mention, what are you even insinuating here? That me and Ace are scum buddies?
Also, please show me where I waffled on thinking you are scum. Me not responding to your defense has nothing to do with whether I agree with it or not. It has to do with time, and how much of it I have. The short version is that I still think you're scum.
I think Marv is probably town.
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
prplhz, who do you think is scum?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
