EPT##unvote
##vote: MrZentor
Wheel of Fortune Mini Mafia - Page 2
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
##unvote ##vote: MrZentor | ||
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OTOH, it'd be a shame if we wasted tonight and all of day 2 just sitting around in anticipation of the Zentor lynch. We should discuss other possibilities as well and see if we can find someone who's actually playing effective scum. | ||
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strongandbig
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At first I had a pretty strong town read on him, since his MO at the start of SS mafia was also to troll, and then say he was "starting discussion" or whatever (that time, he ran a joke campaign for mayor, this time he votes for himself.) However, what happened in SS mafia was that he took accusations against him seriously, although he did continue playing the tard card. Here's an example: On April 13 2012 10:01 MrZentor wrote: I just felt the need to show that they misinterpreted my post as a "scumslip". I always feel the need to clarify when I accidentally post something that is misleading/vague or when somebody misinterprets my post. Thanks for the vote, Michael! A vote for me is a vote for the death of a scum(probably Ace) I'm actually not so sure anymore about him. After rereading his filter in SS mafia it looks like the derping continued a lot longer than I remembered. Why I originally said I thought he was the SK was that he wasn't trying to help the town, but he also wasn't trying to play like a townie; I thought that if he was actually scum with buddies in a QT he would be trying harder to fit in. Now I think there's a pretty good chance he could be SK, scum, or town and just not give a shit. It's like he's trying to slowly build up to being Kenpachi. | ||
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He just doesn't seem like he's trying, or if he is trying it's at something other than "helping the town." If he can prove that there's some meat to this weirdness of his then I'll change my vote. | ||
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I'll put this in a spoiler so people don't accuse me of padding my filter: + Show Spoiler + Well shit. I guess there's a reason they call it a one time pad. I haven't actually studied much cryptography, so I didn't think of that. The first thing which comes to mind as a remedy is that the reason it's breakable using your method is because scum know the set of possible decrypted messages. What if instead of hiding each others' names they each encrypted one of a pair of linked words (for example, "apples" and "oranges")? That way the scum wouldn't be able to reverse engineer the key because they wouldn't know the decrypted message. I guess it's pretty much academic at this point though, since masons would probably have claimed already. @bluelightz: So your case against me is that I accused snarfs of being scummy, but you also think he looks scummy? I think both of your other points have already been pretty well explained in the thread; I posted about mason mechanics because that's what we were all talking about at the time. I've explained my votes on Zentor. My initial town read on him was based on his play in SS mafia, where he started out trolling but quickly started playing a bit more seriously. This game he hasn't taken much of anything seriously; it feels different. Let me know if you have any specific questions. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Example] + On April 25 2012 23:22 phagga wrote: Forumite: He has focused a lot on Zentor, and barely spoke about anyone else. He posted frequently, asking a lot of questions. I haven't noticed anything particulary scummy, but it's the same in the other direction. LOL, ok, so... Why the change of mind? What did you find that makes s&b town now? I already discussed this in this post, as Radfield brought up the same point. Those were an answer to this question. Yeah, I actually thought I lined out on D1 why I found him susicious. Rereading my own filter now I see this is not correct. So in short, the reasons I'm voting him:
This is from the top of my head and my notes, without rereading his filter. First: There was no votecount for a long time. I intended to help. That's not the first game I've done that. Second: That was shortly before the deadline. I wanted people to know that I will be no longer around as a lot of discussion was going on at that time. Also: But then I checked his profile, and he's been a formatting tryhard before in other games; for some examples how about + Show Spoiler [Aperture] + On April 03 2012 15:21 phagga wrote: Derp indeed.
everyone else: GET ACTIVE! + Show Spoiler [snmm] + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: On March 13 2012 01:57 Eleanthas wrote: Ok. Sorry for not responding. Saw discussion towards me at school with my phone, but really hard to write anything with it so decided to wait untill I come home. Anyway have been busy atm. Will change now.1 So what Can i say about first post. It was really just a post to tell people I'm alive. In some forums, you get replaced if you don't speak on first half of day, so I guess I followed that rule there. Had really nothing to say. Just plain stupid first post from me.2 About Nova_Terra: He seems eager to accuse anybody scum if given even a small chance. I guess he is trying to presure players to talk to get discussion going on. Doesn't seem too scummy for me, but have to keep eye on him.3 So what I think about InfernOokami7: beside that post he has 4 post saying pretty much same. I guess he is trying to lurk by stating same thing in many posts. Would like to hear about him.4 And lastly about FirmTofu: Like many others pointed out FirmTofu posted 2 fast posts. Seems kinda suspicous to me. Telling to pick one of the lurkers and listing them and then vanishing. If we don't hear about him, my vote is gonna go for him.5 ##Vote FirmTofu 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: On March 12 2012 02:33 Mementoss wrote: I agree with this post, it seems NovaTerra is eager to FoS despite how early in the game it was, which seems a little suspicious. But, it is most likely just a pressure play, to get the discussion rolling, and people talking. Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas So I no longer think that's a scumtell for him. So on to who I do think is scum at the moment. First, there's the Zentor question. With someone behaving so oddly, it's very hard not to wifom about the implications. I'll do that plenty, but I just thought that maybe we should save that for after we know whether he'll flip town or not. If we start talking about how we will interpret future events, it kind of tells the mafia how to manipulate us during the time before we actually get to the lynch. So some other thoughts. [b]VE, what is the ups? Why are you playing so differently from normal? Your filter is less than twice as long as mine, which is really not what I'd expect. Interesting fact: VE was also the first to change his vote officially to "no lynch." (His vote was on sbrubbles before, so it was effectively a no lynch vote already.) I'm not entirely sure what to make of that; on the one hand, why change your vote and draw attention to yourself as scum when your vote is already getting the same result? On the other hand, a couple of people followed him and voted "no lynch" instead of potentially joining one of the bandwagons, so maybe it was a tactic that achieved it's effect. [b]Ace, we already have more than a majority voting to lynch Zentor. You've said you want to focus on his lynch and not discuss other potential scum because it "just throws more names out there." Now that the Zentor lynch seems to be pretty much the status quo, what do you suggest we discuss, if not our scum reads on other people? Also for some reason every time I try to preview this post the bolding on Ace and VE's names doesn't show up. Hopefully it will show up in the actual post but if it doesn't, just mentally bold it for me. | ||
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strongandbig
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On April 26 2012 10:19 prplhz wrote: I wonder if any of this has anything to do with how you are getting lynched and how I'm not getting lynched. mafia ZING! | ||
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On April 27 2012 06:21 VisceraEyes wrote: Spewing BS you say? So it's just fine with you that Sbrubbles ignores the present lynch candidate in favor of someone who has a single vote based on a single case which was in the process of being responded to? That's...okay with you? As someone who's saying I'm "trying to divert the Zentor wagon"? DOES NOT COMPUTE! DOES NOT COMPUTE!! What are you talking about? Sbrubbles is voting zentor right now. Unless you're referring to the fact that he kept up pressure on you earlier in the day. I don't see that as "ignoring the present lynch candidate" personally; to me, it seems more like he's trying to keep us focused on finding scummy posters rather than letting everyone just coast on the knowledge that a zentor lynch was coming, and thus waste the whole day's potential for getting town more information. That's not scummy behavior, imo. That said, sbrubbles filter is mad short. | ||
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strongandbig
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I further postulate that this makes his town play less helpful to the town than it makes his scum play helpful to the scum team. The clear solution is to lynch Ace every game until he shapes up. That probably won't happen this game, but it's definitely something to think about. Now, here's my thoughts on what appears to be the main issue of the hour: Regarding the VE case, I note that he's finally given us an explanation for behavior that we all agree is outside of his usual meta. He claims that he's decided consciously to play a less active town, because the way he normally plays town gets him killed earlier than he likes in a lot of games. The questions are (a) whether this explains the weirdness that we've noticed about his behavior, and (b) whether we believe him. As far as (a) goes, I think it would definitely explain his abnormally low amount of posting, since obviously that's exactly what it's intended to explain. However, it doesn't answer away some of the other parts of Radfield's case against him, like the accusations that VE doesn't care about the lynch, has a mafia oriented mindset, etc. VE's answers to those arguments are found in other parts of his defense, not in this mindset claim. (b), however, is where I get a bit suspicious. Even though I can understand the motivation of wanting to stay alive, it seems like a mini like this one where something like half the players are known mafia veterans would be the worst one to start a conscious change in meta as a townie. First, it's bound to raise suspicion unnecessarily from players who are known good readers of meta. Second, even if a domineering and very active town style tends to attract mafia guns in normal games, in a game like this one where there's plenty of veteran targets, it seems odd to be so worried about getting killed quickly - especially when VE himself has posted about how stacked this town is and how he couldn't be a leader in it. Third, and related to the first two, VE should have known that he would be making himself an easy vote park for scum by changing up his playstyle on purpose. On the other hand, the point about this game being an odd choice to consciously change meta also applies to if VE is scum; he still would have known that it would attract attention. My interpretation is that VE's play this game is not like either his normal town play or his normal scum play. I just am not convinced that his explanation for that holds up, so it makes me lean towards a scum read on him. | ||
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Gonna do a real post when I get to a computer with a keyboard, too many filters to open on a phone. | ||
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On April 29 2012 09:16 Forumite wrote: He´s been absent during D3, and I want to hear what he has to say about all the flips. He posts less that Sbrubbles, that´s bad. He´s kind of like Marv during D1, but that doesn´t really make him scummy. For some reason I haven´t thought so much about him. Next week is finals week, so studying kind of started all of a sudden. Here's my thoughts in a nutshell: - I'm still suspicious of Ace. Some specifics: - I don't think any real town player would have tried to shut down discussion in the way he has. His "focus on the lynch at hand" strategy translated to an attempt to get us not to talk about scumreads during all of day two. This seems to me very much like pushing a subtle mafia agenda, trying to get the town to not think about what it's doing. Even though we all knew Zentor was getting lynched barring something extraordinary happening, there was no good reason not to keep talking about who else might be scum. A town isn't just a lynch machine. The essential function of a town is to discuss; to get information out in the public and to get people to post things that can be analyzed. Regarding the town as something that just finds someone to lynch, then finds the next person to lynch, then the next, is an impoverished view that I wouldn't expect to come from a real veteran townie. Additionally, how does Ace expect the town to get information around which to build cases for later days, if he doesn't want us to discuss anything except the "lynch at hand", or the "easy lynch" as Radfield put it? Finally, there's the subjects that Ace actually has discussed. Note that he has never actually put out a read or even an opinion on any of the other veterans in the game; except for some soft accusations toward Radfield, when Radfield started to post his cases on VE. If you look at Ace's filter, he actually accuses Radfield of being scummy by "trying to divert the Zentor bandwagon" with his case on VE. However, Ace never has discussed his opinion on Forumite's play, despite people repeatedly accusing him. Unless I missed it, he's also never commented on whether he thinks I'm scum, or sbrubbles, or anyone at all except for Zentor, Radfield, and Bluelightz. This is from Ace's Mafia Manifesto: Deny information - never give the town a damn thing. Whatever you know keep it yourself unless it furthers your win condition. Don't volunteer it if you don't have to. Don't even talk about it. If you are about to be lynched and the town asks you for information evaluate if you REALLY think it'll save you. It won't? Die without saying a word. Don't talk about anything. Don't talk to anyone unless it's to taunt them and make them emotional. They can't find your allies if you don't give them a clue. Read that and think to yourself, does this or does it not sound like how Ace is playing right now? - Regarding Bluelightz: I just skimmed through his filter. It is a bit erratic and he does throw accusations around randomly. However, the amount of effort he put into getting people to keep talking during Day 2 smells pretty town to me. Think about it this way - what is more scummy, the person who takes a whole bunch of positions that may not make much sense, or the person who takes no positions whatsoever, except on the two easiest lynches and the player who successfully fingered a confirmed scum? I think the latter. - Regarding Marvellosity: I don't have a good read on him yet. I just skimmed through his filter in the newbie game we played together, and my impressions were as follows: 1. During that game, he got indignant and forceful in responding to accusations that he was scum, similarly to what he's done here. 2. However, during that game he also made more reads - looking back, he may actually have been the first person to find the final scum. He definitely found him long before I did. This game, on the other hand, it seems like he hasn't really been posting much at all in the way of content that's helpful to town. That could either have town or scum explanations - it could just be that he either doesn't feel able to read people who know how to play much better than we did in that mini or that he feels intimidated by the vets in this game; or it could be that he's playing one of his first scum games and trying to post without actually posting much content. It actually does sort of remind me of how I posted during my first scum game in space station mafia. Overall my read right now on Marvellosity is null, but squarely in the >.> suspicious looking category. Snarfs proved my wrong after I called him out for fitting in rather than contributing; he started contributing significantly, as well as taking a great shot on VE. Marvellosity could very well do the same. ##vote: Ace PS: I have a problem set due on Monday at 10AM. We are supposed to turn that in at the same time as we pick up the first of two 48-hour take home exams. Barring serious bodily harm I will post once more before deadline, but I can't promise much more than that. I'll try to drop shorter posts from my phone when I can though. | ||
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Ace, I don't think that ignoring veteran players necessarily makes you scum, but consistently going for the easiest lynch available without putting any effort into finding the more dangerous scum players does not smell town. Sorry but I just don't have the time right now to Radfield it up and make a long case with lots of quotes. If that means other players won't believe me then so be it. Winning a game of forum mafia is important, especially since this seems like something that gets richer and richer the longer you've played it and the better you understand the theory and the other players; but if I don't get better than a B in this class I have to take it over again next year and I'm totally not going to risk that. I'm not saying it's always a bad idea to try to get the town to really focus down on a lynch. In fact, it usually makes a lot of sense in majority lynch games like this one. However, as I and BL and other people had said several times, Zentor's refusal to defend himself and his consistently anti-town posting meant that there was zero chance his lynch gets derailed by anything other than a concerted scum effort, a huge change in heart from him, or some major scumslip. As it was, scum didn't have to do either of those things, because they could just ride the mislynch wagon. If they had been forced into discussing their reads during that day instead of being able to just focus on Zentor, we would have more to analyze now and they would have been forced to take more stances. Sure, you could argue that in cases where the clear and obvious lynch target actually is scum, then having the town focus exclusively on that lynch would make it harder for the scum team to sneak in and try and divert the lynch. However, imo it's always more dangerous for scum to have to act than for them to be able to just slip by, and if they try and divert the bandwagon it gives an opportunity for the town to catch them in the act. Plus, even once the Zentor lynch was assured and we had several votes beyond majority, I don't see you having helped move the discussion forward - or done much of anything as a matter of fact. What I'm saying is that by focusing on the Zentor lynch and discouraging discussion of other scum, you were moving the mafia's agenda. | ||
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I'm also not convinced he's scum, but I'm officially willing to say the following: I think ace is the better lynch for today, but I would switch to Marvellosity if that was the only way to prevent a no-lynch. I think Ace is the better lynch for several reasons. One of those is that I think he's been more actively scummy than Marvellosity; and another is that I think that Ace left alive as scum is far more dangerous than Marvellosity left alive as scum. I haven't seen anything yet that would rule them out as being scum partners. @Marv, you made some cases in our noob game which I ignored at the time but in hindsight were really quite good. Why haven't you made a case on anyone this game? If you had to do so now, on who would you make it? Also EBWOP: By "either of those things" I mean "make an effort to redirect the lynch bandwagon" or "post opinions and risk slipping up." A change of heart from Zentor would have been great, since he flipped town. | ||
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Let me quickly respond to the "case" here. On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: I don't think that marvellosity is scum. Why? I've detailed why I'm unsure about him and would rather lynch Ace. Why do you not think Marv is scum? On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: I want to lynch strongandbig. The case on him is that his filter is empty, I'll be the first to admit my filter isn't very long; that's not the same as "empty" though. I like to mostly post when I have something to say. I've made two relatively detailed cases on people (snarfs and ace), and although those cases weren't necessarily the most polished or (apparently) the most persuasive, they represented what I genuinely thought at the time. On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: his posting style is weird and he has not been called out yet. Lol. My posting style is weird? What about Bluelightz? Or yours? On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: He was the ultimate sheep vote on MrZentor How is that? I explained my reasoning for that vote several times - the nutshell being that I thought he was town at first, but when he kept trolling and didn't try to contribute I thought he was scum and overreacting to being told he lurked too much in DFM2. On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: and his big contribution has been his mason plan which was not a contribution since masons have successfully crumbed since the beginning of time without one-time-padds or any other cryptological remedy. He wasn't even called out for it when I pointed out how his plan was broken even though that was a perfect opportunity for scum to jump him, Thanks for reminding me about that! I had forgotten that you were the first one to attack that plan for no reason, which I still think was a scummy move. Unless you're claiming to have already figured out that flaw, days before you posted it in the thread, you admit you were attacking a plan which had no downside but only upside for the town. I admit there was a flaw in the plan originally, that I didn't see at the time; however, I think I found a way around it by changing the encrypted message to linked words like "apples" and "oranges", which wouldn't be breakable because the scum team wouldn't know what the encrypted messages were and therefore wouldn't be able to find out who was using the same key. On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: a really safe case that scum should like. Lol. On April 30 2012 04:43 prplhz wrote: He smells like a scum and I want him to die. I'm going to lynch marvellosity if he's the alternative though 'cause I don't want another day1 no-lynch fiasco. What about Ace? Also if you are so sure that Marvellosity is not scum, wouldn't a no lynch be better than lynching him? Also if your secret evil plan is to sabotage my grades by making me type more, you've succeeded. T_T | ||
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On April 30 2012 06:09 Sbrubbles wrote: Strongandbig, Bluelightz and Ace, are your town reads on marvelosity strong enough that you refuse to consolidate? Mine is not that strong. I'll be back before deadline. | ||
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I haven't really heard anything from Marv that strongly changes my mind about what I said earlier. ##unvote ##vote: Marvellosity Still not sure about this. | ||
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