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On April 26 2012 11:05 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Holyshit that was the closest lynch I have ever seen.
We got two blues left. I'm thinking Otto and BM, visit/shoot/jail them both, come up with some sort of contingency so blues can do their work without revealing who they are.
On April 26 2012 11:11 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 11:09 johnnywup wrote:
vigs definitely should shoot tonight though.
and sentinel, wtf? visit/shoot/jail them both? You realise jail heals them? from NKs? Such as vig shots? . . . youre suggesting that we both protect and shoot them? First off, no. One blue does his action on Otto and the other blue does his action on BM. And I'm wondering about the JK role actually, whether we can gamble and roleblock one of the two goons or having to shoot a green. Optimally we could have tracker and JK , tracker reveals himself and JK protects him from the shadows until we find scums.
I'm sorry, but what? Look at the bolded sections. First they should do their work without revealing, then a tracker should reveal himself without any guarantee that we even HAVE a Jailkeeper? Not only can the JK not protect the tracker without the tracker being roleblocked, but no real tracker would claim unless they had some actual information that we could find scum with. These two posts in conjunction look pretty scummy to me. Not only is the advice to blues bad, he contradicts himself.
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On April 26 2012 11:50 johnnywup wrote:
why would the tracker/jk plan work on any day? it roleblocks the tracker so they can't find anything new out
Answer: It wouldn't. What do you think about the contradiction between the two posts that I pointed out?
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On April 28 2012 05:40 BroodKingEXE wrote:
@johnny If we lynch him noe we have a 50% chance of lynching a goon or GF. I'd rather we take the chance than lynch another townie. Great if it he is a goon as they lose a KP, if not we take out a GF which is fine too. In terms of information, people having been defending and accusing him why dont we look at that?
A bit confused, here. Are you saying that you think Ottox has a 50% chance of being scum? If so, that's not really what we need right now.
OR are you saying that you think he's 100% scum and you're giving him an equal chance to be goon or GF? I'd say you can't confirm that until he's flipped. No one is 100% anything until they're flipped. And of course he'd have a 50% chance to be goon or GF if he's scum.
As for me, I said I thought he was scummy yesterday, and there hasn't been anything to change my mind. I don't like seeing all the votes coming in so quickly, though. We still have a long way to go before the lynch, having an overwhelming majority with over 24 hours to go will only serve to stifle any discussion.
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On April 28 2012 04:48 Ottoxlol wrote:Not willing to discuss other people is anti town. I feel I am getting lynched today, but I would like see other names coming up from everyone. When I flip town you will have no information to work with. So no, Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 00:56 ghost_403 wrote:
Hey guys, let's lynch Ottoxlol.
##vote ottoxlol is not enough
Who are your 2 biggest scum reads right now and why?
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My thoughts on your list
On April 28 2012 04:55 Mattchew wrote:
Scum is in these 6 players and if at anypoint I die please lynch these
Ottox As I said, I still find him pretty scummy. I'm for a lynch on him
Risen I'm still not sure about Risen. On the one hand, it really looked like he was trying to save VE on day 1, but then he pulls that stunt to lynch Zepperdd. I'd agree that if Ottox is scum, it makes Risen look REALLY bad, but I don't think we can take that chance today. I also still want to see everything he promised to post when he thought we'd autolynch him. Scummy, but not a good candidate for today's lynch in my opinion.
Brood He's been one of our lowest posters which does raise red flags (Pot calling the kettle black, I know) and he seems to have connection with Ottox like Risen. I still don't know if he's a good option for lynch today, though.
BM A pretty null read here. He hasn't done much at all, so there's not really much to go off of. I'd say it's possible for him to be scum, but it's just as likely that he's town. Last resort lynch for me
MG In the games I've played with MG, I've never been able to clearly read him. I don't know what it is. He seems scummy in this game, though.
St.Daniel We've got almost nothing to go on here. What he has posted doesn't look good, and we do for sure that he was lurking, not just AFK. He said he'd try to "get back in the game" but hasn't really done much since. Leaning scummy for me, but not much of a better lynch than BM right now
As for your plan, I don't think it's a bad one. I still think the votes shouldn't start piling up until later so that there's a reason for people to talk, but that's just my opinion. The problem with making connections like you've done is that until a scum is flipped, it's all speculation. It's still possible for scum to be outside your list, I just don't know where. For the time being, those 6 are a good place to start, and I do agree that Ottoxlol is who we should start with.
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I'd say Risen
Looking at the hour right before the last lynch, we see that Risen doesn't trust his own reads.
On April 26 2012 08:26 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2012 08:23 johnnywup wrote:On April 23 2012 07:51 Risen wrote:On April 23 2012 00:17 Zephirdd wrote:
God damnit layabout. I was about to post how VE's claim made sense and how he was town, but then you convince me the opposite. Geez.
And this martyring post from VE only makes sense from two PoVs:
- He really is a JK and he will let town use his flip information to deal with what happened during the day
- He is scum trying to sound like that.
Also, right now, I see no reason to lynch Bill Murray - he should be vigged, not lynched if he doesn't contribute soon.
VE, what is your stance on gonzaw, especially after his series of (Seemingly) drunk posts?
Also, please make the case against the certain scum you are talking about. Should you flip JK, we got something solid to work from. In fact, I'll take you are claiming scum if you don't do that. That last post combined with, oh I was totally thinking VE was town but layabout you changed my world view bro post is horrible.. There's no way we can get the votes on him today, I'm sorry johnny. I didn't believe you before, and I thought you were scummy. My bad, I dropped the ball. Push this guy tomorrow, push him hard. I'm being too belligerent right now and I need to cool off. I dunno, doesn't seem like you thought he's scum because he's lurking. Maybe b/c there were a million lurkers D1 so to be even more hated in my mind you'd have to do something stupid like a last minute vote? He was leaning red start D2, he became greener to me with his posting, he started to appear more scummy but in my mind that's desperation about being a candidate for lynching. I think zephir is stupid, but I think he's stupid town. I'm not switching my vote to him.
Then, as we all know, he goes and switches his vote, even though he said 30 minutes earlier that he wouldn't just because BM was voting for the same target? He never mentions that he thinks BM is 100% scum, just that he feels "uneasy about him". So all of a sudden now that it's come to voting, BM must be voting for a townie and Risen thinks this so strongly that he voteswitches? It just doesn't seem right to me, disregarding the fact that he switched back. Note: this has nothing to do with if Ottoxlol is scum and everything to do with Risen doing something he specifically said he would not do.
I also still do agree with Gonzaw's original case on Risen.
The only thing that makes me hesitate is how strongly Risen seemed to defend VE back on Day 1. It's WIFOM to argue it though, because it's possible for both town and scum perspectives.
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On April 28 2012 09:17 marvellosity wrote:
I really really want everyone's opinion's on this Risen making a case on Ottoxlol business.
It's interesting. It does make it less likely that they are scumbuddies. Still possible, of course, but less likely.
Taking that one step further, into the realm of WIFOM, if they are not scumbuddies, that obviously would make Risen's vote switch a legitimate accident either way. It makes most logical sense then that Risen is town, because there wouldn't be any reason for scum to switch from one mislynch to another while drawing that much attention to themselves. I would conclude that if we assume that they are not scumbuddies because of the early pressure from Risen to Ottox, it's most likely that Risen is town. We can't really tell anything about Ottox from this specifically in my opinion.
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I still don't feel good about lynching BM. Yeah, he's been getting by with very little, but I think we should be able to find scum out of the people who have given us posts to look at first and leave BM until later. Maybe I'm just too hopeful that he'll actually turn out to be useful later on.
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On April 28 2012 16:06 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 11:58 Janaan wrote:On April 25 2012 11:20 marvellosity wrote:
I'd like a couple of other people to answer on Sentinel too (jdub, BM as you're here for a change) Sentinel is still scummy to me right now, at the moment, though, I'd prefer a Zepherrd or Ottoxlol lynch today. Sentinel has slowly started looking better with his last couple posts, so I suppose he does have that going for him. Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 14:39 Janaan wrote:
Voting before I go to bed. In keeping with my prior suspicions:
##Vote: Zepherrd
I'll be back on tomorrow a few hours before the deadline. Start consolidating those votes, right now we have them FAR too spread out. It would be too easy for scum to force a no lynch if things stay the way they are. You said in the first post you'd rather have Zepherdd or Ottoxlol lynched. So what made you choose Zepherdd over Ottox? And what made you change your mind about BM? You seemed content with voting him D1.
It was actually for basically the same reason why I don't like so many people voting Ottoxlol now. I found both of them pretty equally scummy, I thought there was a pretty good chance that they were both scum. At the time that I voted, there were 4 on Ottoxlol and with my vote, 2 on Zepherrd with about 20 hours to go until the lynch, and if I voted Ottoxlol, that could potentially stop people from talking, since we already would have a large number of people voting for him. Also, if it WAS a mislynch, it would be very easy for scum to hop on the bandwagon with us none the wiser. I knew that I would be able to be back before the lynch occurred so I could change my vote if something happened making Ottoxlol scummier or Zepherdd townier, so I voted for Zepherrd. It may not be a *great* reason, but it made sense to me at the time.
About BM, there's a huge difference between voting for a lurker on Day 1 when there's not much information on anyone and saying that a lurker is the best shot we have at scum on Day 3. It's not that I don't find his play scummy, it's just that he could just as easily be town. I think we have a better chance hitting scum if we use what information we have on the people who HAVE been posting than we do lynching someone who we really don't have any idea about.
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On April 29 2012 01:08 BroodKingEXE wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 20:28 Bill Murray wrote:
p.s. since when was mementoss a tracker?
here I have been thinking we're in a good position
fucking disheartening Wow so scummy, so far we've had 7 townies killed and 1 blue (according to you -_-). Great position!!!! (sarcasm intended) You're going to die for this: ##Vote: Bill Murray
So according to you, the scum strat for this game is lurk-to-win. Do you have any scum reads that aren't lurkers? You've been saying for a while that we should be looking into the lurkers, so it's not really a problem that you're doing that, but so far, after day 1, the only people besides Zepherrd that you've called scum are lurkers. I.E. Easy targets, who don't require much of a case to call scum.
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On April 29 2012 03:38 marvellosity wrote:
Is town absolutely set on Ottoxlol today?
Or are Risen/MG/anyone else still a possibility?
It seems like we've not discussed MG at all today despite him being basically the dead layabout's strongest read for some time.
Is everyone so sure ottoxlol is scum ahead of MG?
I would prefer an Ottox lynch, I have found MG a bit scummy, though. I'll be leaving and won't be back before the deadline in a couple hours, I'll take another look at the cases made on MG and make my vote before I go.
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About to leave, so I need to vote. I've read up on MG, and I changed my mind. The cases against him are decent, it does look like he didn't really care much about the votes. It's also WIFOM, but the night kills do seem to either lead to him being scum, or if he's town, scum trying to frame him. If it was the latter, I would expect more follow-up from scum, them trying to bring up the fact that the night kills seem to lead to him. That hasn't happened, instead we're still stuck on the same topic that we've been on for the past 3 days.
##Vote: MidnightGladius
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Damn it. Really thought MG would flip red. We caught a break with Daniel not voting, though, that'll give us a little breathing room. I think it's pointless talking about what blues should do, whoever the last blue is, whatever role he is, I'm sure he has his own ideas of what he needs to be doing and we need to let him do that.
I plan on taking this night phase to collect all my thoughts in my head. With one goon down, I think we're in an ok position now, we just need to keep going.
On April 29 2012 11:10 PaqMan wrote:EBWOP: wanted to point this out Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 12:26 St.Daniel wrote:
It's ok, iGrok. I hope your job interview went well. I swear I didn't think Mementoss would die. Also, we don't have Vig? That's rather unfortunate, because we spent good chunk of first day talking about it (leading up to VE's claim). My guess are now MG, Sentinel, Mattchew and PaqMan. St. D's scum read in bold. Despite the fact that he voted for BM and thought it was "the most beneficial for town", BM was not put on St. D's final read. I think it's a possibility that either he listed townies or one of his scumbuddies. Tried looking through the rest of his filter and there's not much else to work with, seeing as he was really inactive this whole game.
The thing about this is that you have to remember, Daniel is a noob scum. He probably would air on the side of not mentioning his scumbuddy at all, and certainly wouldn't vote for him unless absolutely necessary. IF there's a scum in that list, there's no more than one in my opinion. It also makes BM look better to me that Daniel voted him when he could have easily sheeped the VE wagon.
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On April 30 2012 10:08 johnnywup wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2012 09:58 Mattchew wrote:On April 30 2012 09:53 johnnywup wrote:
GFs are useless to scum though. If we can kill the goons we pretty much win since without a goon scum has to rely on mislynches and won't have a night kill.
since ottox is not a goon, we shouldn't kill him today. IMO at least. im just saying this is making you look like you dont want to lynch scum I want to lynch scum. But look for other scum other than ottox because if he dies than scum still has the KP. We want to reduce the KP to 0. If we do that it's smooth sailing. Do you not understand what I'm saying?
Here's what I think we should do. Sentinel's claim is true, if somehow it's not, we'll have a counter-claim and we'll have 2 scum caught (Ottox and Sentinel) Since we know we have a JK, if we do come to any consensus on who the Goon is, we have Sentinel jail that player. If there's no night kill, we know that we were right, we lynch that player and continue. If there IS a nightkill, then we would have been wrong about who the goon was anyway, and therefore should lynch our biggest scumreads anyway.
As far as I can tell, Ottox is almost universally considered scummy. Unless a compelling case emerges, I think we need to finally deal with him today.
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On April 30 2012 10:25 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2012 10:23 Janaan wrote:On April 30 2012 10:08 johnnywup wrote:On April 30 2012 09:58 Mattchew wrote:On April 30 2012 09:53 johnnywup wrote:
GFs are useless to scum though. If we can kill the goons we pretty much win since without a goon scum has to rely on mislynches and won't have a night kill.
since ottox is not a goon, we shouldn't kill him today. IMO at least. im just saying this is making you look like you dont want to lynch scum I want to lynch scum. But look for other scum other than ottox because if he dies than scum still has the KP. We want to reduce the KP to 0. If we do that it's smooth sailing. Do you not understand what I'm saying? Here's what I think we should do. Sentinel's claim is true, if somehow it's not, we'll have a counter-claim and we'll have 2 scum caught (Ottox and Sentinel) Since we know we have a JK, if we do come to any consensus on who the Goon is, we have Sentinel jail that player. If there's no night kill, we know that we were right, we lynch that player and continue. If there IS a nightkill, then we would have been wrong about who the goon was anyway, and therefore should lynch our biggest scumreads anyway. As far as I can tell, Ottox is almost universally considered scummy. Unless a compelling case emerges, I think we need to finally deal with him today. I'm not sure your plan is a very good one.... From the OP 2x Mafia Goon: You may kill at night. You are not required to kill.
I suppose it's possible for scum to not shoot. Still, that would mean scum is wasting the opportunity to kill a townie that they want dead. Either way though, I still think we should lynch Ottox.
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Glad to see some discussion going on after that long period of inactivity. That's precisely why I don't like it when everyone votes so soon in the day, it shuts down discussion. Johnny's case definitely looks possible. Broodking, I personally would like to see your case on Ghost if you have one, I don't know why Risen doesn't. There's still plenty of time to talk things over before the night phase. Just because Ottoxlol already has a majority of votes on him and most everyone does think he's scum, doesn't mean that we should just not do anything for 20 hours.
I read BM's filter from the previous game, there does seem to be a real difference. In this game, BM keeps saying that he's scum-hunting but we haven't seen any real evidence. In his other game, he obviously was. He's called us wrong and called us idiots, but hasn't once said why he thinks that, also a difference from the other game.
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Another odd thing about BM is that he says he's not going to "sheep" us by voting Ottoxlol since he wants to find the goon, then when no one follows him he throws that out the window and seems to put the nail in Ottox's coffin, which conveniently seemed to stop most discussion until Johnny's case, wasting the town's time.
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On May 01 2012 13:22 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Janaan, I am wondering what your scum reads are now that MG is dead.
Ottoxlol obviously is still scum to me
I've been taking a good look at BM, I don't think there's much that I can say that hasn't already been said. He looks pretty scummy, especially after looking at his Death Factory filter.
I actually wasn't sure about you until recently, BroodKing, but you're looking more town by the minute.
I was pretty sure that someone I had previously marked as a townie read probably was scum, I just wasn't sure who. The cases on Ghost make him look like a fairly likely candidate.
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That's possible. It's also possible that his scumbuddies just wanted an early bandwagon to stop people from talking about anything else today. The problem that I see with not lynching Ottox today is that regardless of what happens, we'll be on the exact same topic next day phase. People will still find him scummy, will still want to lynch him, and will still probably talk about nothing else until we actually lynch him.
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At this point, I still think we probably need to deal with Ottox. We do know that he isn't the goon, but we don't have conclusive evidence of who IS the goon either. I'll be voting for Ottox today.
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EPT
