Newbie Mini Mafia VIII

On April 11 2012 07:34 Acrofales wrote:
I'm vanilla town!

On April 12 2012 04:11 KharadBanar wrote:
May we vote for ourselves?
It says in the OP that we can but in Newbie Mini Mafia VI it also said this until someone asked, at which point Radfield silently edited it and claimed that it was never allowed in the first place... Better safe than sorry

On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote:
Let's not waste Day 1. Too many times I've seen people say it's not important. We can find out plenty as long as everyone posts. Please be active so we don't waste our first lynch on a bored townie. The sooner everyone posts, the sooner we can get to the real scumhunting.

On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.

Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.

As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well.

On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:

Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it.

You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions?

On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote:


I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start if we don't have any solid scumreads by the end of Day 1.

So in short -- more people should post so we have more information to go on and can avoid a policy lynch.

On April 12 2012 15:44 imallinson wrote:
/confirm

Hello all just woke up and read through the thread so far.

I'm kind of worried that a load of time was wasted discussing RNG votes. It seems a bit like Dittert was sending us down a bad path. I'm not sure if that's due to scummyness or newbness but it's definitely something to watch out for.

As for Kharad's pressure vote on Hiro it makes sense if he is trying to get a read on him based on info from a previous game. I'm guessing he isn't that suspicious of him after his answer due to the unvote.

Finally on lurker votes I'll reiterate what I said in my last game that lurker votes should be a last resort because you have a fair chance of lynching a blue that is hiding in the shadows.

On April 12 2012 16:43 BroodKingEXE wrote:
@Xatalos: Do you think ArticFox is more scummy because he has posted more bad posts, or because the bad posts of others didnt have as good a read?

On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos

I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself.

On April 12 2012 18:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos

I've had a good read through your argument against ArcticFox and haven't found any major holes in your logic there. I think that the talking about blues is less important than the stuff he says about policy lynches (although it definitely doesn't help his case). He seems to say that he doesn't want a policy lynch but keeps suggesting various policy lynches:







I'd like to see him put up some defence of your accusations.

As for Dittert I still can't figure out whether he is just being a newb town or is trying to distract us as scum. He hasn't posted a proper defence yet. "I'm a newb, please don't lynch me" doesn't count

On April 12 2012 20:11 KharadBanar wrote:
So now enough with the defense, and onto some actual play. I actually have a (slight) suspicion of Xatalos, believe it or not. I have nothing to say against his case on ArcticFox, but I don't see "70-80% Mafia" in there just because Xatalos played the same way as mafia. Please remember that it is entirely possible to make this play as town if you're new.
This is by no means defending ArcticFox but if I had to evaluate his chances of being Mafia right now, I would put them lower, at like 40-50% which is still quite suspicious. But the thing I really don't like in there is this quote: Please remember that 2-3 votes is more than enough to cause scumslips even in town players, especially new ones. This is something I learned from VI, where Kohbee got into a fight with the entire town and looked scummy for defending himself when in actuality he was the cop desperately trying to wind himself out of the mess he's gotten into.
I am not against pressuring ArcticFox at this point because we need more posts from him, but I won't use my vote for it because I think 3 votes is enough pressure to make anyone's defense look scummy, be it actual scum or just town.

On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote:
I don't like this case at all. You start off by saying ArticFox's posting reminds you of your own posting as mafia in AGOT - this has no relevance at all; ArticFox isn't you - meta from another game with someone else playing is an awful reason to think someone is mafia. And policy discussion that early on with very few people online is perfectly normal.

On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote:
Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is?

You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes.

##Vote: Xatalos

On April 13 2012 02:44 willz22912 wrote:
Terrible case on Arcticfox. You're willing to lynch someone 7 hours into the game based on your experiences of how you played Mafia in the GoT game? I looked through your filter, even you stated yourself that it felt too easy as Mafia to hide because you never drew attention to yourself. I also recognize that Acrofales was your scum buddy that game and your Mafia plan was to rely on his "noobiness" to let him get away with his opening post (but it almost got him lynched)

Your entire reasoning behind attacking him was that he mentioned blue roles a few times and he was in favor of policy lynches, something that you said you did "as Mafia." So basically if someone said something that you would do, you would assume that is suspicious even though you mostly coasted in GoT, you didn't lead the town towards a mis-lynch or towards wrong lines of thinking. Don't project your experience from GoT in here with that little reasoning, you're creating a bandwagon and getting everyone to agree with you based on terrible logic.

On April 13 2012 02:48 willz22912 wrote:




You had suspicions in allinson, and then when he blindly followed your bandwagon you're okay with it and it drops your suspicion? I've played town every single time I've played mafia and it's always the bandwagoners that are suspicious. So quick to support you and you return the favor? No. Not this early, not without any credibilty earned.

On April 13 2012 02:59 Acrofales wrote:
Wow. I go climbing the afternoon and people start accusing eachother left right and center. Going through it semi-chronologically.

I like ArcticFox's response to the case, which I thought was a trumped up load of poppycock. I just wanted to see Arctic's reply, because I had a null read on him and seeing him post in response was good. While scrolling to the end of this, I see Willz has pretty much destroyed the case already: the main problem with the case is that it is completely false meta. You are not ArcticFox and he is not you. Additionally I didn't find his references to blues in any way shape or form a way of fishing for blues. However, it was interesting to see his response.

ArcticFox has acted townie so far. Something that I cannot possibly say about Dittert and while quite a few people are suspicious of him, I cannot understand why people have not jumped on his latest shitty post.
+ Show Spoiler [Dittert's absurd accusations] +
LaL IS a dumb policy and Willz pointing it out is good. Your RNG policy was dumb, and pointing that was good too. The butthurt OMGUS you're pulling here is pretty damned terrible. This is not a case against Willz, it's a half-arsed attempt to get out from under the pressure. I know I asked for reads... I just didn't know they'd be this bad. Dittert, please give me your opinion of Xatalos... more on him in a later post.

Btw, to get things straight: we should absolutely be on the lookout for lies, but policy lynching them is absurd. If you catch someone lying, by all means jump on it, but lies go in the box with the rest of the evidence. They are not the be-all end-all and I can reference 2 games off the top of my head, where town lies served a purpose.

##FoS: Dittert

So far Dittert. I will go through the rest of this random-accusation-town right now.

On April 13 2012 03:23 willz22912 wrote:


I'm leaning strongly towards imallinson at this point because he hasn't posted anything unique for himself, he's been hiding behind supporting your case against Arcticfox. Other reads I have now I am not willing to divulge at this point so they don't get defensive early, I'm curious to see how some of my suspects proceed as we still have 29 hours to go till deadline. I'll post a case on my vote target after I collect more evidence.

The other suspicious person that everyone seems to agree on is Dittert, and I view him as simply a newb town and harmless. I'm taking note of the people so ready to jump on an easy target, being suspicious in itself should not be grounds for a lynch without decent evidence of malicious wrongdoing. I mis-lynched someone in Newbie V because he was "suspicious" and that was it, it was a mis-lynch and helped us lose the game because the other viable lynch was a real Mafia. I have learned from that and now I do not blindly agree with any lynches based on suspicion.

On April 13 2012 03:08 willz22912 wrote:




This is your first post on imallinson, you call this not suspecting him highly? You claim that he made good points on Arcticfox and Dittert. Arcticfox is the case you're trying to push. Dittert is easily regarded as suspicious for his poor rng proposal. So he gets away by agreeing with you on one case and following others thoughts on another? Yeah that's trying to blend in. If you bandwagon onto someone else's case and vote accordingly, you better have a good reason with your own opinions, otherwise that just lets mafia jump on the easiest mis-lynch case and defend themselves with "but Xatalos thought he was Mafia, and I believe in Xatalos, so thats why I voted this [innocent townie]!"

If you convince enough people to help you lynch Arcticfox because this is plurality vote, and he flips town, I'm going after you and whoever voted along with you without any good reason.

On April 13 2012 03:41 imallinson wrote:
EBWOP: I think I've said all I want on Arctic at the moment. He definitely has gone some way to alleviating my suspicions of him. I'm going to read through some of the more lurky players filters to see if there is anything suspicious there beyond them not posting.

On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.

Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.

On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote:
Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.

On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote:
I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.

I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.

HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.

I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect.

On April 13 2012 04:18 imallinson wrote:


I never thought you were mafia and wasn't trying to label you as such. I was just pointing out that what you had said about me wasn't quite accurate. Also this was before you had posted your suspicions on Arctic. You posting those suspicions definitely reinforced you as being probably town in my head.

On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote:
@ Xatalos

I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself.

On April 13 2012 23:52 vonKlaust wrote:
@Xatalos
I said you were my prime suspect, but I was and am far from sure that you are mafia. I don't agree with that I have had a persistant focus on you. I still maintain the stance that you could be mafia and I think that the chances for you being mafia is higher than others in the thread, but for now I think that Willz and Hiro are far safer bets.

This is what I wrote about you when asked to pick top scum candidate:


This is my reasoning for writing that:

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 14 2012 01:29 vonKlaust wrote:
I'll just quote the post I made about it:
+ Show Spoiler +

My explanation is simply: I thought it carried some truth, so I wrote "I think it carries some truth".
Looking back, I do agree that it's pretty much too vague to actually be a usefull post. I just wrote what I was thinking. Maybe I should have kept those thoughts to myself since I really didn't add anything.

On April 14 2012 02:07 vonKlaust wrote:
Oh, lol, I completely forgot to answer that part.

Here goes.



Your suspicions dropped a bit because he provided evidence for a lynch rather than just wait and blindly bandwagon. Of course mafia would want to provide evidence for lynches to act more town. If they see a chance to put the spotlight on some townie, it would make sense for the mafia to try to frame that person.
Basically there is two strategies as town:
1. Try to blend in
2. Try to establish your innocense
Ofcourse these can be combined, but you seem to take for granted that Imallinson would go for blending in. It's just as likely that he would want to frame ArticFox if he thinks he can get away with it.
The fact that Imallinson provided evidence to your case says nothing about his alignment. It makes just as much sense for a scum trying to lynch a townie to provide evidence as it does for a townie trying to lynch a mafia members.
To me, it just feels like what Imallinson wrote shouldn't have been enough to explicilty state that your suspicions of him dropping.

You didn't adress the point about trying to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. I'm curious on your thoughts about that.

On April 14 2012 02:33 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, you may agree with the case against me, but please correct this statement here:



I still don't want to lynch Dittert, I still believe he is a newbie town and he will be very chagrined by the alignment I flip. I did not really start the OMGUS war, because I see that the original basis for Dittert's case against me was that he thought I was trying to start a mis-lynch on him because of his rng-proposal. Technically, he has started the OMGUS war all along. I only got angry about it, which has led to my downfall. You even state here that it's (somewhat weak) accusations. I did try to address them, but it was mostly about specific posts I made (out of many) that he found suspicious. He never made a solid case against me, I just wanted him to stop.

If you are willing to lynch me because I became overly defensive when it came to a first time forum player continuing to attack me with what everyone agrees is poor logic, that's fine, but realize that I still don't think that Dittert is Mafia, and when I flip, please don't lynch him first, go after the others on my bandwagon.

On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
My case against Dittert
It all starts with this bizarre proposal


This is sort of humorous but I think it is a leveling play. I think he saw a strategy that DIDN’T work in other games, and wanted to employ it here. Believing it would again not work.

Now Dittert starts really posting and seems like a noob but really is just playing dumb.

It doesn’t scream scum because he, like many others, is pointing out that a bad strategy is bad. Why does Dittert keep pushing us to employ bizarre tactics? Because if people use their intuition they will correctly land on him as a mafia player.

He is saying that all lynches have risk but lynching you is less risky as our worst case scenario is lynching a bad player.

Him accusing willz who I am still the most confident in only raises my suspicion further.

Derp? I don’t know how you read my post as implying an order of suspicion. Playing dumb again and trying to redirect.


The mafia already know who their teammates are and you know this. There are no neutrals. Playing dumb to get out of an accusation. Typical dittert.

Contrast these statements:


Willz is ONE OF the first to make a suspicious list. Unfortunately I’m on it, but still.



Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.

On April 14 2012 04:22 ArcticFox wrote:

You say you think Yomi is town, Yomi has stated he thinks you're town, but when you're lynched and flip green, the case for Yomi being scum is stronger? Why? And if so, this is a good thing how exactly?

Your play just keeps getting stranger, dude. This logic is even worse than what we've seen so far. It's sounding more and more desperate.

What about Yomi's filter makes you read him as noob instead of scum? His case vs. Dittert is awful, and the rest of the posting is angry and nonsensical.

Is there anyone beside Brood and the lurker (Trumpet) who you can build a solid case against for lynching?

I'm really close to ignoring your posts until the lynch to be sure. It seems like scum trying to keep attention on himself so we don't notice everything else going on. Why no reaction to Acrofales stirring up a shitstorm around you then disappearing before the vote with an "I can't read the thread or change my vote, I'm busy, but I like willz case." excuse? Sure he reads town to most everyone, but you HAVE to call him out on that, right? You were reading town to most everyone until last night too.

On April 14 2012 04:31 willz22912 wrote:
@ ArcticFox

Read Xatalos' argument, it makes sense. If yomi was Mafia and he knew I was the likely lynch target, and he knows I'm really town, he can post that in his defense freely without giving too much away, it gains him credibility. The only reason he would post that without any other support is if he had inside knowledge

I think Yomi is newbie because he's tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert is tunneling me. Do you think Dittert is Mafia for posting the original case against me and trying to lynch me? How is this any different from Yomi against Dittert? They're both newb towns tunneling everyone.

I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I suppose he could be Mafia making an easy case because of previous circumstance (Dittert/BroodKingEXE responses to me) but that's up to you to figure out since I won't be around now will I?

What do you want me to do, save myself by changing my vote to Yomi? And what happens if he flips red, all is forgiven and everyone will overlook my behavior? What happens if he flips green, then how do I explain myself? I'm in a lose-lose situation personally, and the best thing I can do for town is let my lynch go through and flip green to prove I was town.

On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote:
Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself

I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.

##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912


I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro

On April 14 2012 05:59 yomi wrote:


Why so scared? I am one vote away from being lynched. I guess only a mafia gets scared when they are one vote away from being lynched.

before I am set to be lynched? what do you mean? you want me to post with 1 second left?

you can't see a motivation for a player to ensure they survive?

this is becoming dittert playing dumb level of ridiculous

On April 14 2012 06:04 vonKlaust wrote:
@Xatalos
Well, you're right about that it's likely that both are not scum. However I'm not at all confortable with saying that this fact makes it pretty sure that they both aren't town. Just look at the way Yomi has been posting. He just seem to post whatever comes into mind without really explain it. But on the other hand this isn't very pro town, and since Trumpetarn and HiroPro are pretty likely to abstain from voting, you could be right that he is our best bet after Willz. Looking back he has actually been pretty negative for the town so far. Still, I'm not convinced he is mafia.

The thing is that everyone seems to have forgot why we put Willz here in the first place. Sure, he has been posting more pro-town now, but as I wrote earlier, this would also be expected from a mafia member. It doesn't convince me fully. And on top of that he wrote a bunch of martyrish stuff which were just wierd.

On April 14 2012 06:25 yomi wrote:
I guess I do have a negative attitude. I flame people online that's definitely true. It is not unique to this game. This is me on tl:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=293561
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=326871&currentpage=7#129
attacking other people being supportive:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328386

Why am I like this online? I'm not sure, I'm very polite in person. I guess it's letting loose.

I don't even know if I should respond to xatalos anymore honestly. He claims I was/am not in any danger but that is so patently dumb I don't know what to say. Xat you are aware that if I hit 5 before willz that I am pretty much dead right? the order of the votes counts bud.....

You want me to act like willz, I am not willz.


I'll try to go through and grab a more concrete read on someone else but I don't want to stretch anything. A lot of people's arguments are HIGHLY speculative IMO and I don't want to be forced into pulling something out of my ass. If I only have a few reads I'm confident in then that's that. I'm not going to grasp at straws just to say I "contributed" when I think there's way too much spam in this thread and now I'm beginning to contribute to it myself.

On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
This vote is way to close I am going to vote for Yomi to make sure Mafia don't get the initiative to switch. I have already put some thoughts down, but his recent posts haven't helped his case. He talks about how he has been flaming, and that he is going to get more information. The problem with this is that its roughly 1.5 hours to vote, any information he brings foward won't be able to analyzed properly and the voting will turn to chaos. Although I think willz is more likely scum.

##Unvote
##Vote: Yomi

On April 14 2012 06:57 yomi wrote:
here comes our hero xatalos

I guess this is super against my interest to post but it seems I'm dead no matter what

Xatalos, your suspicion of me and brood is mutually exclusive as I was the first to finger brood. Remember when I said I find your reasoning bizarre at times? This is one of those times.

also i typed brood's name wrong
##unvote
##vote: BroodKingExe

On April 14 2012 07:13 BroodKingEXE wrote:
I thought that willz was more likely to be scum than Yomi. My thinking was that if I was wrong about either I don't want the Mafia (which could be Hiro or Trumpet to swing the vote). You couldn't really blame either of them as they have no posts so far. Swinging my vote to Yomi wasn't a bandwagon I talk about him here. I have reasons for voting for Yomi:




This was before willz scummy post.

On April 14 2012 07:23 HiroPro wrote:
Back from class. Going through filters for willz, yomi, and broodking. For people who are wondering why I am lurking, I sleep from 1-8 CDT and then I have classes until about 4-5 CDT, so obviously I can't post until after that. And being in different time zones doesn't help.

On April 14 2012 09:54 yomi wrote:
oh ya he ends up voting for brood so that's 10 and one guy is afk so 10/11

who didn't he suspect?

On April 14 2012 08:55 willz22912 wrote:
Wow, after what happened earlier today when I was the most likely lynch candidate, I pretty much felt like giving up, which is why I made the vote on myself. I was also pretty just bummed in general and didn't really care about how the game was going to go since I assumed no one would do something as crazy as BroodKingEXE just did.

Still this leaves me with a shitty situation. I have little to no credibility (I made town wait around for so long for a bad case against a bad townie in the end)

Trying to read scum behavior after that lynch vote is also going to super hard. I did not expect the majority to change within 30m to BroodKingEXE after he made that one terrible post. It screamed scumslip yes, but now we know that Mafia had a mis-lynch practically given to them. It's highly likely that all the Mafia members are in that lynch somewhere because it was so easy to justify. Makes the rest of the town's job harder.

As to my play, I will try and step it up and be more transparent from now on, I promise. If I don't feel free to lynch me, but at this point I have to do a major rethinking of everything. I was expecting to be the lynch target on D1, and now I find myself alive but my proposed target dead in my place (and a town to boot). I won't be around for much of this night, I will be busy hanging out with family, I might be home in time for the N1 rollover, but that's not a guarantee.

I'm also going to try to tone down my post count as well, I can easily see that I have the largest filter, but it's mostly full of fluff at this point. Being active is good, spamming the thread as I have been doing is bad. This is not an excuse for me to lurk, I'm merely saying I will be posting less (and hopefully better) responses. Thanks for keeping me alive town, I'll do my best to earn this second chance.

On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote:
Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through.

Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers.

Dittert:
After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots.



I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet.



I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for.



It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time.



People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later).



A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing.



This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me

##FoS: Dittert

yomi:
I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you.

Xatalos:
The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you
are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody.

Willz:
Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out.

I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them.

vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases.
ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus.
Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz.
KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1.
HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people.

On April 14 2012 15:50 imallinson wrote:
I'm fine with you voicing suspicions but throwing out 4 or 5 people at a time you think are suspicious or you would be ok lynching doesn't help. All it does is confuse everyone else and erodes your credibility especially when you aren't actually backing your claims up with any evidence.

On April 14 2012 19:55 vonKlaust wrote:
While I must admit that I'm not the biggest fan of Ditterts' case on Willz, I think it had one good point, namely this:



This comment by Willz is about as strange as Broods slip. Why in heavens name would town want to lynch town? Willz answers this in a post aimed at Dittert. Here's what he wrote:



There is a veeery big difference between townies willing to kill other townies and townies mislynching other townies on purpose to punish bad play. Willz however seem to think that delibretly killing people that you suspect as being town can be a good thing, because of the reason that we get information from the votes. At the same time he claims he does not like Xatalos play since it "draws out too many bandwagoners". If we want to lynch townies to analyze bandwagons(or when anyone get lynched at all for that matter), the amount of votes on that townie is gonna be pretty large. We're unlikely to get lynches with 2-3 votes. I can't see how Xatalos is doing anything bad if you at the same time hold the position that it's worth to lynch townies to get information.

Also I'm curious about this:

How does these number have anything to do with his stance Xatalos' case? I would like Willz to explain this.


And while I'm at it I would like to post a note on a similar subject:

Xatalos, I think you have to chill with your accusations. In my opinion your cases so far have been pretty weak. This plus the fact that you alot of the time seem to have 100% confidence in your reads actually spreads more confusion than helpfullness. Your reasoning is weak at times and in my opinion you base way too much of your reasoning on meta and your experiences from your previous games.
I actually think that Yomi is right when he says that you are too suspicious of people. Sure, you should call people on their bullshit, but you seem to get convinced of people being scum for any little wierd thing they post. For example in your recent case against Yomi, one of your key points is that he has said that he thinks Willz is innocent like three times troughout the thread. I don't even think this is wierd, but you seems to think that this is highly suspicious.

Sure, you can argue that he doesn't really have an explanation, but so far pretty much no one as far as i remember have actually provided any evidence on their town reads exept for saying stuff like "I think he's town because his posts seem mostly pro-town". This isn't saying more than Yomis oneliners about Willz, since it's pretty obvious that anyone who thinks that anyone is townie does this based on that they think said person have acted pro-town.

Instead of constructing cases on these kind of facts this early, I think it's better to save them for later. In my opinion we can't really make cases yet constructed on who voted for who and who thought who was innocent. However, if you see a pattern later in the game I think that could definetly be usefull. But right now, I think it's too vague.

Note that this isn't saying that I necesserely think that Yomi is town. I still think he is more likely to be mafia than most people in the thread. He has posted very little of value, and has only started to make good posts after he was voted on. I think it's a bit wierd that he wrote so few(and mostly bad) posts early in the thread, but when he was voted on he started to post alot(he posted pretty much as much text last night(EU), as he had posted since the game began. Also, he seems pretty reasonable in his defence, and in my opinion he didn't seem very reasonable earlier. I'm hoping that he will keep up the posting, and hopefully try to do more analysis.

On April 14 2012 20:40 KharadBanar wrote:

How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia?
So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now.
willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now.

I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore.
With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.

On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.

The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay?

On April 14 2012 21:14 vonKlaust wrote:
Also, about breadcrumbing, keep this in mind:

On April 13 2012 14:22 yomi wrote:
I want to make a bigger contribution than going in circles with you. Which I plan to do tomorrow.

On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.

On April 14 2012 07:01 yomi wrote:
me and willz led the charge against brood originally

now it seems the town's top suspicions are:

me
willz
brood


yet us three have attacked each other frequently. congratulations I pretty much hate you guys. please stop and think more clearly about the chain of accusations and what it means about possible combinations of mafia.

On April 15 2012 00:50 imallinson wrote:
@Xatalos
I'm not sure if you realise or not, because you seem very adamant about the vig shooting someone tonight, their ability is once per game not once per night. It's a lot better to save it till they are almost sure their target is scum. Having the vig shoot town basically loses us a blue for a loss for town.

On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.

On April 15 2012 01:21 Acrofales wrote:
Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up).

On April 15 2012 01:43 Acrofales wrote:
/facepalm. How does anybody know that player B is telling the truth and player A is lying? How is this any less wifomy than having unclaimed kills? Does a true roleclaim come with a message from god that assures us it is gospel truth? Also, 2 vigis doesn't seem farfetched. The distribution of blue roles is equally wifomy. We may not have a medic, so have a second vig to make up for it? Or anything like that? Don't even start down that road, wifom is pointless.

On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:
How am I lurking for 40 hours? This is not close to a factual statement. What about hiropro? He posted WAY less than me yet you don’t seem to care about him at all.

On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:

I have a few reads and am now going to devote my energy to looking into them further instead of being bullied by you.

On April 15 2012 03:10 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: looking over the thread I was reminded of the connection you made between Willz and Yomi. I am not seeing it. Mind explaining it?

On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.

On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671

Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case.

The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play.

Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips.

On April 15 2012 07:19 willz22912 wrote:


My logic is that I think your case against Yomi is bad, and you have only tunneled him without looking at other people. He may be your top scum read but if you can't get a consensus from the rest of the town your read has no weight. If you really want to tunnel Yomi and continue to do so, your case relies on the fact that Yomi did not defend me sufficiently as a fellow town enough.

Both myself and Yomi changed our votes in order to save ourselves, both town or Mafia would make this move. We both know for sure that our self (as in Yomi knows Yomi is town, I know I am town) so 100% read is better than a could be wrong on the other person. I think Yomi is more town than you think, but I was still willing to switch my vote to him to save myself because I know I am town. You can't use this reasoning to explain whether or not he is Mafia.

Regarding my death wish, do you not see that Dittert isn't convinced of my innocence, ArcticFox still has his suspicions, and Acrofales posted the strong case against me in the first place? Thats 3/11 players left who have no inclination to believe in my towniness, meaning I have little to no credibility as town to push a Mafia even if I do find one and make a case. At best the other players see me as neutral, but probably most of them still have a scummy read to me. It would waste another day's time lynching me, the better option would be to vig shot me, even though I know I am town, because a dead townie in my position is better than a scummy looking town alive. I've stated this before when referring to Dittert, a bad town is worth sacrificing rather than keeping him alive. Case in point: BroodKingEXE, I for one don't miss him, even though he was a town, because he pretty much screwed us D1 with getting any information from either Yomi or myself's lynch. None of his filter contains any useful information, and it's his own fault he got himself lynched when he could have easily stayed silent. I don't think many people would miss me as well if I was suddenly killed by Mafia or vig shotted, so that's my logic.

On April 15 2012 07:53 Acrofales wrote:
Overeager townie or scum? I am unsure, but keep an eye on him. When the lurkers are unlurked or shot, he had better have improved his posts, or I'm going after him.

On April 15 2012 08:09 imallinson wrote:
I second Acrofales's vote. Yomi to some degree yesterday, me, ArcticFox and Acrofales all made cases against him and he hasn't responded yet. I'm willing to hear him out but for now he is definitely my top scum read. I'm still suspicious of both yomi and Willz but I am willing to leave them for the moment as Dittert makes me even more suspicious.

On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote:
The Blue Shift





In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions:

+ Show Spoiler +

Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell.


The Distraction Factor

When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch.







##Vote: Xatalos

On April 15 2012 07:34 yomi wrote:
i meant turtle as in heal yourself

On April 16 2012 04:05 KharadBanar wrote:
When he said "I might just turtle up tonight" he is meaning this as in "If I were you...". The whole thing is meant as an advice to our blue roles, not as claiming what he did that night.
You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job.

On April 15 2012 07:28 yomi wrote:
as for who to hit with saves this is way too wifom. go for people you are most confident are town? save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try)? the choice is yours and yours alone

remember the only person you are 100% sure of is yourself so I might just turtle up tonight.

On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote:
I really want to hear a theory and a reason that doesn't involve you claiming DT, because if you've blueslipped here, the mafia will surely kill you tonight. The last thing the town needs is a dead DT.

On April 16 2012 14:29 Acrofales wrote:
Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper.

On April 16 2012 12:04 funcmode wrote:
OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can.

The people I'm most suspicious of;

Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth.

Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum.

imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos.

Semi-suspicious;

willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town.

Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit.

HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name.

Least suspicious;

vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well.

KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now.

Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious.

Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts.

I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more.

But for now;

##Vote: Xatalos

On April 16 2012 04:20 KharadBanar wrote:
I'm slowly really starting to believe Xatalos is scum over Dittert.

##Unvote
##Vote: Xatalos

Update on my Scummiest Players List:

1. Xatalos
2. Dittert
3. yomi
4. willz22912

On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote:
And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias.

Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me.

On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote:
@ Acrofales You're the one who made the case against me stick, not Dittert, and a lot of that was due to me OMGUSing Dittert during the night. If I kept my mouth shut against Dittert and not let him get to me, what would your case consist of?

You say you dislike connection play because it induces WIFOM, but can you really explain the motivations between myself and Dittert without it?

I'm not "soft defending Dittert" I really have no clue as to what the hell his motivations are for playing this game and posting the way he has. I am making the argument that lynching Dittert now wouldn't really give us as much information compared to lynching someone else (see the post I made with my list of outcomes)

Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight?

Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos

On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote:


This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape.

On April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote:
Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect:



ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school?

He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well.

That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug.

On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote:
For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder.

On April 14 2012 22:55 ArcticFox wrote:

Xatalos....please...for all our sakes, slow down your posting. Stop typing. No, I know you're already formulating a response to this before you're at the end of this sentence. Stop. Go back. Read your filter. Every single one of your posts has been either a parroted argument that someone else has already made, or a case full of so many logical fallacies and leaps that it's a wonder how you ever got there in the first place.

Posting a list of blue actions is not even relevant. Blues should already know what they're going to do. Having different targets for Jail/Doc in a semi-open setup where you don't even know if both roles exist (and likely don't both exist unless scum got some powerful roles too) is a headscratcher too. Beyond this, you gave no real reasoning as to *why* those should be people's choices. "Oh, I post a lot and I'm obviously town, because I say I am." is your whole reasoning to be protected. Yomi as vig shot is because "he's a distraction" -- as much of a distraction as dittert? Or even willz at this point? Yomi and willz are at about the same level in my mind -- why yomi over willz other than your "I'm sure that willz is town and yomi is mafia," statement? It's as poor as the rest of your logic.

I know you're trying to contribute, but your posting is all over the place. If I were on the scum team and you are actually town, you're exactly the kind of town I'd *want* to keep alive. Slow down, and think calmly before you post. Is this argument sound? Does it have a solid counterargument? etc.

Yomi is actually starting to make a little more sense to me as this goes on. He's been really the only one who's been saying Dittert is actually scum -- I've hinted at it, Acro and imallinson's FoS'd him, but yomi's been all over it since early day 1. Imallinson makes a big list of things picking apart Dittert's post, but the most damning things about it just scream scum to me.

First, his sudden change in tone from a meek, clueless, "is this ok?" style of posting to suddenly:


Willz was jumped all over for rabidly defending himself when accused, and suddenly switching from seeming helpful to getting aggressive. Dittert has done the exact same thing.


Day 1, we HAVE no facts to go with. We are interpreting everything that every person posts, and we have to determine which posts feel the most scummy and run with those reads. To insinuate that you, or I, or anyone else in this game is doing something different is insulting and distracting. The first actual clue we have is "BroodKingEXE is town." Now we get to go back through BroodKing's filter and see what it means. In about 9 hours, we'll have 1 or 2 more people dead, and we'll go through *those* filters, and people who have posted about them, and start to put them together.

Saying "I was right about Brood, he was town, therefore I'm right and listen to me!" is awful logic. Go back and read the posts. Before Brood made what everyone can agree is the dumbest play of the game, nobody was voting for Brood. Even willz had taken his vote off of Brood and voted for yomi. We were convinced that one of those two were scum, and at worst we'd have more information today, and only something extremely large happening could take us off of that focus. Brood did exactly that, and that's the only reason he's dead. If he'd kept his mouth shut and kept his vote on willz, even *if* some people had jumped from yomi to willz at the last minute, we'd still have more information. yomi was up 5 votes to 4 and set to be lynched. The play made 0 sense. It still doesn't. That's why I got so pissed and left my computer last night. We gained almost nothing from a brood lynch except "well...Brood played badly."

The sudden change in tone, the constant horrible logic, and the playing of the noob card for far too long. It's time people started watching you.

##FoS: Dittert

On April 13 2012 08:17 HiroPro wrote:
I voted for Xatalos because the case he made was bad. The case he made after that was good and showed me that he was reading and thinking things through.

On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote:
yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.

On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote:
The Blue Shift

Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell.

The Distraction Factor

When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch.

##Vote: Xatalos

On April 16 2012 03:33 imallinson wrote:
@yomi

I don't think two people not attacking each other means they are both scum. Hiro defending Dittert is interesting, but you have to remember it was at a time when everyone but you had Dittert pegged as newb town so I'm not as confidident that it is suspicious behaviour. As for Dittert jumping on you when you linked the two of them I don't think both those things are linked. He came with good arguments as to why you seemed scummy and it doesn't strike me as him defending Hiro. Again this was early on in Day 1 and people were throwing accusations around a lot.

On April 17 2012 03:23 imallinson wrote:
I'm not so sure Hiro is scum. I think either Dittert or Xatalos are scum and whether Hiro is scum or not depends a lot on Dittert's alignment. I think what is interesting is that Hiro went from thinking Xatalos is reasonably town to picking him out as scum at the beginning of day 2. I haven't quite figured out his motivations for this yet and there is definitely a town explanation for this as well as a scum one.

Dittert is Scum
If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too).

Dittert is Town
However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum.

So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town.

On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote:
3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town.

On April 17 2012 07:35 funcmode wrote:
I just want to say as an aside, late last night when I was writing my first proper post trawling through the thread trying to give my opinions some substance, I questioned how anyone could ever find this game even slightly entertaining, it seemed like an epic reading session with minor bouts of arguing here and there. I don't think my opinion could have changed more in the last few hours, this is super intense! :D

On April 17 2012 07:07 yomi wrote:
It is really down to intuition at this point. Everyone thinks they are super logical and have great cases etc but even the BEST cases of the whole thread are still by an "academic" standpoint really weak. So in my experience playing the sc2 mod mafia are almost ALWAYS quiet. xat talks a lot. hiro is quiet

##Unvote
##vote: Hiropro

bye gg gl I hope when I come back we are winning

On April 17 2012 07:38 vonKlaust wrote:
@Xatalos

What do you think about what I wrote earlier on Imallinson and the connection between Dittert and HiroPro?

On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote:
Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too.

Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)?

On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep.

Nighty night fellow townies! <3

Fuck you scum bastards.

On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote:
Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie.

I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again...

Sigh.

On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:

Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.

Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.

Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.

Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.

yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.

vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3

Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.

Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz

Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.

So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise)

On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us.

On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long.

On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.

On April 18 2012 02:44 yomi wrote:
I don't think mafia usually make such big slips like the their/our thing. Plus I believe it is grammatically correct once he establishes "town" as the subject he has to stay with third person. "the town has killed our own doctor" makes it sound like the town killed a mafia doctor

It is a weird post though I will give you that.

On April 18 2012 03:12 yomi wrote:
To what degree do you think they influenced the switch? Also would like xat to answer this or anyone else

On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum.

On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point.

On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote:
Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight?

Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos

On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)

On April 17 2012 04:30 Xatalos wrote:
Why Am I Town?

I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these:

- Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action)
- Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with)
- Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all)
- Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general)

Through these faults I have caused anti-town atmosphere, which is an understandable reason to believe I would be Mafia. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation?

- Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie
- Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth
- Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention
- Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait

In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia).

Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults?

- Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category
- Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end
- Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players

All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective?

- Activity is definitely not a Mafia trait: Mafia would prefer to fly under the radar and plan inside their own chat, not to be on the spotlight of the discussion all the time
- Transparency is the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia would never want to give more information and thoughts to the discussion than necessary
- Focus on Mafia Hunting is again the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia want to delay and distract Mafia hunting, not to focus on it in their own posting

So none of these pro-town plays are really explainable from a Mafia perspective. Of course Mafia would love to look as pro-town as possible, but not at the cost of losing the game because of it. Willingness to establish your innocence at the cost of advancing town agenda and probably having to bus your teammates along the way is not strong Mafia play - it's ineffective Mafia play.

On April 18 2012 02:13 Xatalos wrote:


This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players).

You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence.

Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town).

Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust).

Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won.

On April 18 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote:
Why To Lynch Willz



First Mafia slip: why would you want to kill a townie just for posting a stupid suggestion? You even say specifically that his town flip would help "weeding out the real scum"... How exactly? It's not like a bandwagon on Dittert for his stupid play and a town flip would reveal anything useful for us, especially if there would be just a bandwagon on him and nothing else during Day 1. It would be a dream come true for Mafia, not for town.



In hindsight, this looks like potentially suiciding and denying additional information about Mafia connections for town. It's always better to say everything you have and prove your innocence: at the very least others will have something to discuss about next when you flip town. If you suicide as town, you just deny information and give a free kill for Mafia. If you suicide as Mafia, you protect your teammates and confuse town.



So it's better to lynch an active poster than a lurker, regardless of what you think of our Mafia probabilities? Lurkers benefit Mafia, active posters benefit town.



Malicious WIFOM making Acrofales look "bad" once KharadBanar or someone else with high credibility gets killed instead. Possibly a Mafia strategy to plant suspicion on Acrofales beforehand with this really weak WIFOM.

I'm in a hurry so this'll have to do, I'll be back later!

On April 18 2012 07:47 Dittert wrote:
Since I'm home, I might as well post something, especially considering that it seems likely that I'm shot tonight. I could see a vig shooting me for being suspicious/bad/a smartass, but I could also see a Xat/Acro/3rd mafia team shooting me to reinforce their case against Willz. I've been tunneling Willz hard, and me flipping town (which I know I will) could lend some credence to my case.

I'm still suspicious of Willz, but I haven't had time to reevaluate my case in light of everyone's postings today. Just skimming it though, I am way more suspicious of this Xat/Acro tag team we have going on. If I die, my advice is to follow the doctor's orders and just lynch Xat tomorrow. If I don't die, I'll waste my time reading through all these posts so that I can make a longer case for you to ignore tomorrow.

On April 18 2012 08:03 vonKlaust wrote:
Alright. One positivt thing actually comes from this. Now we know for sure that all of Acros' reads were genuine. I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow.

On April 18 2012 12:34 yomi wrote:

So you were afraid to post because it would make you look guilty. But when you were up on the chopping block you were willing to sacrifice yourself to give us the "connection" info that your flip would give us. At one point you are willing to engage in fearless town play, and at another trying to avoid suspicion at all costs.
How can you reconcile these two positions?



@ Xatalos:
You are not helpful when under scrutiny. You get very defensive. Look at page 6 of your filter. You go into "survival mode". Even pleading to my self interest to vote switch to save you. When others were about to be lynched, or were about to die they posted as much useful information as possible to help town before their death. Please respond to this allegation.


Dittert I am waiting for his "big D3 post that we will all ignore".

On April 18 2012 16:49 KharadBanar wrote:

Sorry about no nightly post. Spring break is over for me and I'm getting up at 8:15 AM again. I value my sleep schedule, so I went to bed before the Day post (I did address this in an earlier post).

SO, without further ado because I didn't die that night, here's my thoughts on the situation:

Acrofales being dead, we have to worry about who takes the initiative in leading the discussion and I'm currently not very comfortable with a potential scum member doing so in Xatalos (I don't think Xatalos should be our lynch since he's not the most likely of Mafia members, but enough so that I don't necessarily think him taking over is a good thing for town. I will be as active as I can while I can, during the [EU] day I will likely not be as active (read: probably not at all) because I'm at the university. vonKlaust, if you're reading this: make an effort and get active again, the town needs contributors now and you are probably the most towny player around besides me. If you make a thought out case, people are going to trust you, use that trust! About Xatalos, one last thing to note is that after willz' defense, Xatalos just attacked him further without addressing his defense. On this alone, I would argue that he's an even likelier mafia member than willz, but his activeness and general behaviour suggests otherwise.

willz22912: He defended himself (again!) and while his reasoning is okay in that, I'm still very unsure because of how often willz managed to get himself in such a situation in this game: No matter how good your defense is, if you have to defend yourself too often, then in general it's because you scumslip often and I'm going to get suspicious. In willz' case, I'm very suspicious. His reads are okay though, making a good point about imallinson.

About that: imallinson, where are you? You didn't do too much scummy, but you only ever contributed to discussion in easy ways, and it's not looking like you are making any attempt to get more active either. As a non-Dittert player, I expect better from you, and I'm slightly suspicious because of that since you look like you at least know what you are talking about, when you're talking.

That concludes my morning reads; if you're one of my suspected players get out there and say why I'm wrong, if you're not get out there and scumhunt! This may be our final day, let's not waste it!

On April 18 2012 19:51 KharadBanar wrote:

This argument about willz actually makes sense. You would think a player who can give such good arguments defensively would make better cases while he's not preoccupied with defending himself, or would actually make any good cases for that matter.
As for you, your defensive arguments sometimes make little sense but then so do your cases. I'm not arguing that this is necessarily good play but at least it's consistent. Note that consistency doesn't necessarily make a player town, but inconsistency is a scum tell, and willz is guilty of it.

On April 13 2012 10:36 willz22912 wrote:
You are trying to dissuade town from being transparent and posting their thoughts for fear of being a target by Mafia. I had this opinion too, why share your information so openly so early, but I learned from Gonzaw in Aperture Mafia that it's better to give 100% effort as town no matter if you die, in order to help the rest of the town figure out who's scum. Transparency and an active town is key to winning, you seem to be against this for fear of your own mortality, this is bad for town.

On April 16 2012 02:24 willz22912 wrote:
I know for myself that I am town, but I cannot prove it, so we should use this lynch to see what the real relationship is (if one of is us [Xatalos/Willz] scum)

On April 18 2012 22:39 willz22912 wrote:
Do you really think it's easy to build cases against Mafia when you have low credibility and you are incurring claims of OMGUS every time you try to point something out? I had upwards of 6+ votes at one point, it's obviously mathematically impossible to say that only Mafia voted me, fellow town also did. I'm trying to read through the logic and see where the real Mafia are, but I am stuck with defending Dittert and myself, giving me no time to push my reads.

On April 18 2012 05:45 funcmode wrote:
-This whole post comes across as very pro-town, largely in part because it agrees with many of the things I'm currently thinking.
-(/facepalm) suggests some genuine townie disappointment.
-Comments on defense of Acro by Xatalos.
-Brings something new to the table (both winners in a previous mafia as scum which gives them an extra out with meta arguments, admits it's flimsy but still worthy of noting.

On April 19 2012 03:34 KharadBanar wrote:
This is that post.

I will take a different approach from willz here, because I had a very good defense post from willz to go from.
With Xatalos, I am going to try to make some comments based on his general posting style which have been made before but need to be reminded of, and again they are meant to be good advice if he is town, but something for the others to consider as to if you're actually scum. My official opinion: I haven't decided yet whether to go with Xatalos or willz here.

First off, some general remarks:
One of the biggest problems I have with your posts is that some of them come about as giant walls of text.
If you want people to trust you, they have to understand you first.
If you want people to understand you, you have to make it easy for them.
To make it easy for people to understand your posts, it would be advisable to post in a style people actually want to read.
People want to read something with colour.
People want to read something with weight.
People want to read something with a pattern.
People do not want a post which starts out decently only to devolve into a giant messy wall of text which their eyes can't follow and which is probably not all too well thought out in advance and has little to no interpunction and no paragraphs and just repeats itself over and over again and repeats itself over and over again and makes them want to stop reading at every corner because they are tired of making sense of your big sentence which grows ever longer and in the end has no real conclusion. You don't want to bury your important points inside a paragraph where no one will look twice because it's buried in between lines and lines of rambling which no one will ever get the gist of because you have preoccupied their concentration with making sure your sentence is actually grammatically correct and has all the right words in the right places to be actually still listening to what you are saying.
Not all of your posts are like that. But if you really want to make something count, it will have to look more readable than for instance your defense against HiroPro.
This has been alleviated somewhat in your recent postings, but I'm still writing about it here because I still think it is pretty damn important.

Now about the implications of this: As I have said before but not elaborated too much upon in my post about willz, scum actually wants us to not remember what they said in their posts.
This gives them the opportunity to say what they want first without you noticing it, then either cite it to hold it against you later or completely forget about it themselves and not have to worry about it.
It also makes the town think "Yes, yes, this player is actually contributing" when in actuality all of it had no real meaning*. What this says about Xatalos I'll leave as an exercise to the reader. (Hint: It doesn't automatically make him scum, which is why I still haven't decided yet.)

*INB4: If you're suddenly thinking "This man is a hypocrite! He said every post should carry meaning inside the game yet this has nothing to do with the game at all, it's just a posting style rant!", consider the following:
Making yourself heard is an important subject in a Mafia game. If this advice helps you write more understandably in the future, more people will actually read what you have to say, and more people will actually understand it. Therefore if you take the time to have read and understood this, other people will take less time to read and understand your posts, and they can respond better to what you have to say. Reading this is not a waste of your time.

Thank you for your attention. Everyone, get out there and post, and do so in a readable fashion!

On April 19 2012 03:57 KharadBanar wrote:
Oh sorry. I was so occupied with putting my word out there that I didn't catch your post

It's pretty good, both contentwise and stylewise, but the last argument didn't really convince me. funcmode was probably in crunch mode and didn't think much about the posts he commented about when he wrote that. To draw a possible mafia connection there seems really arbitrary to me.

On April 19 2012 03:57 KharadBanar wrote:
Oh sorry. I was so occupied with putting my word out there that I didn't catch your post

It's pretty good, both contentwise and stylewise, but the last argument didn't really convince me. funcmode was probably in crunch mode and didn't think much about the posts he commented about when he wrote that. To draw a possible mafia connection there seems really arbitrary to me.

On April 19 2012 04:13 KharadBanar wrote:
I am going to wait to hear the other players' opinions until I make my final decision, since I a) don't want to influence the others too much while I'm not entirely sure what to do, and b) want to let their arguments influence my final decision, because it's final.

This may sound waffly and bandwagony, but there are reasons behind it.

On April 19 2012 07:57 willz22912 wrote:
I'm a bit baffled by some of your responses. Xatalos is ignoring my defense and the holes I put into his case, fine, we both think the other is Mafia, so we're going to ignore each other.

Others, I'm just having a hard time understanding what exactly you want from us. Do you want me to post my other scum reads besides Xatalos? I will and have done so in the past 24 hours, so what is the point? This is the last lynch we will get as town, if we mis-lynch we lose the game, we need to guarantee a lynch goes through on everyone we can agree is Mafia, either myself or Xatalos, there are no other candidates so asking for other reads seems pretty counter-intuitive unless you want to try a hand at connection play (which made Acro decide that Hiro was aligned with Dittert and imallinson and got him lynched.)

I'm also curious by the fact that none of you ever brought up the point I made about Xatalos mentioning a DT claim during the night and how even Acrofales thought that was a really dumb idea and anti-town. Why would any town think up that plan, why is everyone ignoring this, especially imallinson when he decided to vote me instead of Xatalos?

On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote:
Crazy Dittert here again...

I know you're probably used to ignoring this post, but if you're town DO NOT IGNORE THIS POST OR ELSE YOU WILL LIKELY LOSE.

To be fair, I think we've lost anyway, but following my advice is the only sure-fire way not to lose at the end of D3. For those of you unaware, if we mislynch, we automatically lose (ML makes it 4-3, N3 makes it 3-3 and then we are endgamed). Therefore, we must lynch someone we know 100% is mafia.

Fortunately, today we have someone who fits that description. I know this because I am Detective. The first night, I checked ArcticFox, and he came up town, but also dead. Last night, I checked KharadBanar and he came up not town. Therefore, we must lynch KharadBanar.

##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: KharadBanar

Here's my case:

I. On Being Detective

I know you might not believe that I am detective, as I have been what seems to be the worst player ever. Here's what I was thinking, however.

D1 I obviously have no information to go on, so I just make a case against Willz as best I can. My RNG proposal was just me being new. After reading through the filters and seeing the reactions, I believed our Mafia team was definitely Willz and Yomi and the third member was likely AFox. I was so confident about Willz and Yomi (overconfidence being one of many newb mistakes) that I checked AFox to confirm my suspicion of the third. I make an awkward attempt at breadcrumbing my investigation here (first letter of each paragraph bolded):



And here:



In that same post, I call out Xatalos on a "blueslip," which I think is a scumslip. He hints at being DT, and I try to get him to claim DT so that I know for sure he is mafia (since I am DT):



After D2, I was now uber-suspicious of Acro and Xato, mostly because Acro led the charge to switch the vote off Xato to HiroPro, who as we saw turned out to be doctor. I knew most people thought I was either scum or just terrible, so I decided to keep playing that card to keep myself alive:





I was antagonizing the town so the mafia would assume everyone else would stay suspicious of me. (My N1 rage post was completely sincere, and all that bad RL stuff really did happen to me. FMRL.) Since I thought Acro would be the only one game-savy enough to catch my breadcrumbing, and since I now strongly suspected he might be mafia, I thought he might shoot me. Hence this post:



I knew I'd flip DT when I died, and I didn't want people thinking I had investigated Willz on N1. I hadn't. My Willz case for D2 was still based solely on my reads.

II. On Investigating KB

Okay, so if you believe I'm DT, why the hell did I investigate KB, who everyone thought was 99% town?

Well, like the first night, I was convinced I had 2 of the 3 mafia figured out: Acro and Xat. Not only did they "save" Xat with the Hiro vote, but they were also spamming up the thread all N2. Once again, I went hunting for the third mafia member.

I dismissed Willz right away because he had a lot of heat on him from Acro, so I couldn't be sure the mafia wouldn't frame him (assuming we have a framer in the game).

With Willz out, I also dismissed Yomi, since most of my scum read on him came from his association (in my mind, at least) with Willz. Not 100% town, but not the most likely candidate either.

Funcmode seemed like a terrible choice, given that his filter was essentially empty. Figuring out that he was mafia wouldn't allow me to connect any dots, assuming either Acro or Xat turned up town down the road.

That left KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and iamallinson. To be honest, I wouldn't be 100% surprised if all three turned up as our mafia team. They haven't posted too much, but they also haven't really been accused on anything. Perhaps they've spent the whole game sitting back and allowing us townies to lynch each other. In the end, I just went on a hunch and investigated KharadBanar.

Given that basically everyone in town had him as their "99% town" read, it seems highly unlikely that the mafia felt the need to frame him, especially with so many other people in the middle of the discussion.

III. On Not Being Mafia Myself

How do you know I'm not mafia making a false DT claim? I guess technically you don't, and if you're not convinced yet, here's more reasoning:

THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN.

4 votes will lynch somebody, and they have 3 votes. All they need is for one townie to be up for debate and they can gang up for the win. Since we already have Willz and Xat going at each other, it seems likely that at least one of them is town. Assuming both of them have at least one townie vote near the deadline tomorrow, we lose. The mafia will switch to the town member and they will win.

The only way this play makes even a little sense as mafia is if Willz and Xat are both scum as well and I'm trying to get them both off the chopping block. That doesn't make sense either, given the fact that:

1) I have been going after Willz aggressively the entire game. That's a pretty long con - all to set up this highly unlikely endgame scenario...?

2) Willz and Xat are going back and forth now, which would mean they're double bussing.

3) I was the first to vote for Xat on D3, meaning I'm bussing a teammate yet again.

4) If you don't believe me, isn't the person you're most likely to lynch me? In that case, we would still lose a mafia member. If you don't believe me and you don't lynch me, you're just not thinking clearly. I'm either right or mafia.

After we lynch KB, mafia will surely kill me N3, especially if KB is the framer. After that, it's basically a guessing game and an odds game. Best of luck to you.

I'll be around a bit Thursday morning to answer questions from non-confirmed mafia members, but once again I'll miss the vote due to work. Please don't screw this one up.

Vote KB or Bust!

On April 19 2012 17:23 imallinson wrote:
@Dittert

There's a few things I'm not understanding about your claim.

#1: Why check ArcticFox? At the end of Day 1 he seemed like one of the most town people. This could be an easy way of faking a claim, someone you know the alignment of and you didn't actually have to make a case on because they were already dead.

#2: Why check Kharad? If you had narrowed it down to me, Kharad and vonKlaust it would make more sense to go for me or maybe vonKlaus, Kharad seems much more town than either of us.

#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.

#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.

I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.

##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert

On April 19 2012 17:42 imallinson wrote:


Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts.

On April 19 2012 23:29 Dittert wrote:
Okay, so what we've learned so far:

1) iamallinson and Xat are either the last 2 mafia OR too poor of logicians to help us in the endgame anyway.

iamallinson does make at least one point though. Why did I vote Xatalos if I know KB is mafia? I'm not sure if that was the right play or not, but I needed to get discussion going on someone other than Willz, if only so the town could see people's D3 reactions. I was afraid everyone would think "Acro thought Willz was the most likely scum player, and Acro was the best town player, so let's just lynch Willz and be done with it." Willz making a case back against Xat could just be seen as him trying to save himself or OMGUS.

I wanted to make a case against KB without DT claiming, but that's really hard to do from his filter. Not because he's so pro-town, but rather because his filter is so empty. Sure, he's got 4 pages of posts, but a lot of them are things like "lol, ninja'd." His voting record consists of almost entirely bandwagon votes on townies, but that doesn't look so out of place in this game - especially since most everyone else jumped on the bandwagon D1 and D2 as well.

On April 20 2012 01:59 KharadBanar wrote:
OK look.
So I went to bed yesterday thinking about how we, as a town, can decide whether to vote for willz or Xatalos. I slept, woke up today and went to the university. After a long day I come home and read through the thread and.... what? WHAT?
WHY ON EARTH is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint me scum?
Why on earth is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint ME scum, out of all people? Dittert is Dittert after all, but why ME and not someone more believable like imallinson? Or Xatalos?How could any self-respecting townie ever be convinced of "figuring Acrofales out"? This sounds like pretty bad invented reasoning to come up with some alleged "scum reads".
So of all the people to investigate (apart from Acrofales, who you were "convinced" he was scum), you picked the most townie looking to test if he's scum?
Excuse me, but that sounds like a genuinely stupid move. It just does not make any sense. Coming from a generally underperforming player, your posts sound like a straight scum claim.

At least if you wanted to distract town from meaningful discussion, you managed it. I'll give you that.

##Vote: Dittert

On April 20 2012 02:17 Dittert wrote:
All right mafia team (I'm talking to you, KB, Xat and imallinson). Answer me this:

If I'm mafia and trying to save Willz, why wouldn't I just step up and post a better case against Xatalos? Like I said before, with 2 choices on the block, the only reason for me to make this claim is if Willz and Xat are both mafia. Given Xat's reaction to my claim, I think that's highly unlikely.

Also, that makes 3 votes on me now. Everyone else realize that if you vote for me before we have 4 votes on KB, we lose, as I'll be the first one to reach 4 in the event of a 4-4 tie.

On April 20 2012 02:30 funcmode wrote:

I don't want to spend any significant amount of time arguing my defense today, as we have far more pressing issues. Given than I'm not exactly at the centre of attention, it would be a waste of time and resources given how important today is. I'll simply reiterate my previous post regarding my defense of Willz;



(Pay attention to the bold bit)

I'm still trying to determine what I really think about this DT claim, it's certainly very suspect and one could argue shouldn't be trusted simply because of the current state of the game. The lack of activity from vonK and Yomi is also especially troubling. I'm going to ponder further and go back through some filters to try and come up with any kind of real conclusion. (And Xatalos, before you beat me to it, I know this will probably register with you as another "nothing" post in an attempt to remain under the radar - rather I'd prefer to not jump in and make any hasty conclusions, this has only proven to be a bad idea. As a townie, the more you throw me into your case makes it harder for me to believe in it).