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Newbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 3

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LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 21:31 GMT
#308
EBWOP: Also not sure about therapist, but I'm leaning town.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 22:03 GMT
#312
Well, it's moot now since Gossemerr is dead. Again, I hadn't thought much about that and just posted my gut feeling at the time.

GG Gossemerr!
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 22:12 GMT
#315
I'm a little surprised too, Nova.

Perhaps you were the "obvious" mafia hit since you seem to be the most likely townie, and fearing that we still have a doctor they settled on Goss.

Perhaps Gossemerr was getting a little too close to the truth.

And, in a third (IMO unlikely) scenario, perhaps you're alive because you're mafia
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 22:17 GMT
#319
On April 09 2012 07:08 Bocki wrote:
Damn! It took a while to write that post, began it before the kill.

Well.. so much for bocki/gossemerr are mafia.

So, everyone that attacked BlueyD is dead except me. He probably didnt want to make it so obvious.

My read for Scum: BlueyD and Therapist.

I dont think I will have to wait 48 hours to do my vote.

##Vote: BlueyD

If you dont come up with a brilliant read on someone else, I wont change the vote.


Alright, 3 town and 2 mafia. The only way for the town to win is to vote together or to get 2 votes on a player before the mafia can vote.

If Bocki is truly town and won't switch his vote, then it makes sense to put in a BlueyD vote now. Based on this possible situation, I will throw my vote in for now.

##Vote: BlueyD
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 22:20 GMT
#320
Holy cow! I just realized that under these rules it might be possible for the town can win if it's 2 town 2 mafia.

If the town votes for the same person, that person is mafia, and they vote before the mafia puts up their vote, does the town get the lynch if it's 2 vs 2?
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 22:21 GMT
#321
Even more strange, what if it's day and 1 mafia 1 town? Whoever votes first wins? This seems broken.........
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 08 2012 23:15 GMT
#324
Thanks for clearing that up Nova. The rules are much more sensible now.

I do claim to be town, but I'm will NOT confirm or deny if I'm blue/green just yet for the following reasons:

1) Assume that I'm blue, but have no useful information. Assume that I claim blue. Assume that we lynch mafia tonight. In that case, mafia gets a blue for free tonight. Bad to claim.
2) Assume that I'm blue, but that I do have useful information. I can avoid claiming right now to see where votes fall, and may be able to avoid claiming, thus denying mafia a blue kill tonight. Bad to claim until I see where things fall.
3) Assume that I am blue, but choose not to claim. A mafia member claims blue today in an effort to mislead the town. I have an obvious counterclaim, and we get a mafia. Bad to claim this early.
4) Assume that I am green, and choose to claim that I'm green. Assume that another townie is blue. The mafia has one fewer person to worry about as being blue, and is more likely to assassinate a blue tonight by not assassinating me. Bad to claim this early.

I don't see any real advantages to the town in announcing whether I am blue or green at this moment. [b]If[/b] you or anybody can come up with a good argument for me announcing, I will consider, but for now I choose not to claim either way.

I have one more thing to say to the remaining townies before we start analyzing more heavily, and that is a reminder of what we're looking for. I think that Nova and I have pretty much confirmed each other as town in our own minds.

If that is accepted, then that leaves 1 townie and 2 mafia out of BlueyD, Therapist, and Bocki. Most of the players in suspicion right now will be mafia -- keep that in mind while analyzing. Confirming a third townie right now would mean a sure-fire town victory as well, so if the remaining townie can come up with an irrefutable argument pointing to their innocence, now is the time to post it.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 02:16 GMT
#327
I posted my reasons for voting BlueyD. Bocki seems to be fixed on his vote. I am not.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 07:13 GMT
#331
On April 07 2012 00:41 Bocki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2012 13:57 LazinCajun wrote:
...I propose that we drop it the implications of him dying and move on to more substantial matters...

...Unless somebody has some amazing read to gain from the mafia hitting imallinson (I doubt it), it doesn't make any sense to me to dwell on these issues, and I think any more discussion of such triviality indicates a lack of desire to move forward, ergo indicates scuminess.


A blue gets whacked and you do not want to see why? Or talk about why? And that after he attacked you and died instantly after this?

That sounds a bit weird to me. I dont know what to think of it now, really, but ... its weird...


I couldn't sleep so I started going through filters again.

Looking back, this post from Bocki bothers me a little bit when viewed in the context of his later behavior.

I feel like I was and am in good standing with the town. As I explained, my post was trying to drive us away from wasting time arguing in circles over something that wouldn't provide much info, but I can see how it could be interpreted badly enough for somebody to make a post about it. The queston that's bugging me is this:

If Bocki interpreted this negatively, why did he make such a weak and indirect case against me (it sounds weird, I don't know what to think, it's just weird!), then totally drop it later?

On one hand, perhaps he is town and had a strong pro-town read on me, so he wasn't confident enough in his own opinion to try to start a lynch against me. However, if Bocki had such a pro-town read on me, why wouldn't he buy that I just wanted to avoid useless discussion in the first place? That doesn't seem consistent to me. So if he didn't believe me, wouldn't my post raise a big red flag?

On the other hand, if he was mafia and wanted to raise suspicions without drawing too much attention to himself, wouldn't he make just this kind of post? From a mafia perspective, his post could also encourage the town to spend far too long on wondering about the mafia's motive for one lynch, wasting time and effort better spent elsewhere.

We heard nothing else on the issue after Nova, probably the consensus most pro-town player, came to my defense, and nobody else mentioned the post. I don't think that dropping the case so quickly would make much sense if Bocki is innocent. If somebody were town and in Bocki's position, I think he would become more suspicious of nova and aggressively make a case against me in order to try to draw out more information and/or secure a lynch.

If, however, our hypothetical player was mafia in Bocki's position and trying to encourage a mislynch, it would seem suicidal to push the case further! Without support from the town, the backlash would likely get him lynched, or at least raise more suspicion than he would want.

As strange as it sounds, I think that him not attacking me is pretty inconsistent behavior and gives me scum vibes.


LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 07:14 GMT
#332
So Bocki, I ask, why did you not pursue your negative read of me further?
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 07:17 GMT
#333
Bluey, do you really think that typo is important and a scumslip, or are you joking around again?
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 15:46 GMT
#337
On April 09 2012 17:33 Nova_Terra wrote:
(snip)

On to Lazin,
To me, that feels like he was making a newbie mistake. not sure whether newbie town, or newbie mafia mistake, but i think its one of those. And i think he dropped it because i came to defend you, and then he reaized that it was a newbie mistake. If someone is town, they dont want to dwell on something they screwed up on and something the *most pro town player said was incorrect, as they are trying to prove themselves innocent. if they are mafia, its the exact same thing.
I am.not sure if you read the guides or not, but in them it says that leading the town in circles is something the mafia tries to do. so far, i havent encountered a mafia who tried to lead the town in circles. when i was mafia, the main thing was just defending myself, if the town started making conclusions i was fine with that as long as my name wasnt there. I think thats how it goes in a newbie game. avoid the curtain, and you succeed. To hell with making decision making harder, etc. anyways, my point is that while those couple points definitely dont make bocki seem more town, i dont think it necessarily makes him more scummy too. the other stuff, he certainly better answer to.


Nova, I think it was a mistake speaking for Bocki before he responds. My case alone isn't enough to label him as mafia, but I do NOT understand his thought process. I wanted to read his own original response to try to get a better read on him. Your defense here might give him something to hide behind.

Bocki I still want to hear your own reasoning on the matter. I think it's fair to interpret silence as a huge scum tell.

On to therapist: I will reread his filter. I have a pretty simple argument against him right now that is pretty damning I think. I'd like to wait to state that argument until I think more on the filters. Stating it right now could give the mafia the opportunity to act in a specific way that would muddle the whole situation. Sorry if this is vague, but I really can't say more without showing my hand.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 16:20 GMT
#338
2 more things:

Therapist what are your reads on the game right now? You have been lurking for far, far too long without posting anything of value. Follow up on your suspicions from your previous post if you still hold them. If not, then post why you changed your mind. We need to hear from everybody ASAP.

Next, another small argument against Bocki -- being very stubborn about BlueyD is sort of scummy. The 3 remaining town members should be focused right now on getting a unified vote against a mafia member. If nova and I disagree with you and you don't change your vote, then that would potentially cost the town the game.

From the mafia perspective, IMO tunneling the townie that is under the most suspicion is the "obvious" strategy right now. Nova and I have each posted that we think the other is town, so voting so early for BlueyD and saying you won't change your vote for whatever reason seems somewhat questionable.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:12 GMT
#344
Nova, I agree 100%.

My simple argument I mentioned earlier against therapist is simply this:
I believe one of BlueyD / Bocki is town and the other mafia based their voting for each other.

The last mafia would either be me (i know i'm not by mod PM ), you, or therapist. If my decision is between you and therapist, then therapist is by far the better lynch. You could be playing a mafia role very well, but as you correctly noted Therapist has contributed basically nothing to gain the town any information.

##Unvote: BlueyD
##Vote: Therapist


I bet Therapist ends up being a unanimous lynch and turns up red, with the 3rd town joining our vote and his teammate throwing him under the bus to save his chances for next round.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:15 GMT
#345
EBWOP: I didn't want to reveal that argument until I knew your read on therapist because I didn't want the BlueyD / Bocki votes to change just yet. I didn't want the mafia to come up with a crazy WIFOM plan of voting for each other to obscure things further.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:23 GMT
#347
I just want to make it clear that voting for therapist now does not necessarily indicate innocence. Assuming my vote and nova's don't change, therapist would've been lynched on our two votes alone, so it's likely therapist will be unanimously lynched.

Nova, I propose we concentrate on BlueyD and Bocki now. I will of course consider what Therapist posts, but it will have to be very convincing at this point.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 17:41 GMT
#351
Bocki: I did not intend that as an accusation, merely a note. It applies equally to everybody still in the game, even nova and myself. I probably didn't need to post it anyway, as therapist getting 4 votes was pretty much a foregone conclusion.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 19:44 GMT
#355
On April 10 2012 03:58 Therapist. wrote:
Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.


Wait what? Voting on somebody because "somebody" (actually, I think several people) made a good case against them is a bad idea?

Secondly, there have been a couple of good cases against you. To summarize off the top of my head: I've suspected you for a while, ever since my post about voting habits. At the time it was pretty much a hunch, and I kinda ignored it after era flipped green. Nova posted a good analysis of your filter -- you really haven't done much to get information out of anybody, and your motives have been opaque. I happened to agree with all of it, for one of the few times all game. I posted a case based on my reads of the rest of the game (ie, me and nova town, one of blueyD/Bocki town, and you're the last that could be mafia). Everything does seem to point to you right now IMO.


Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.


I hardly think "without a second thought" is accurate. Combining what I posted above with the fact that the town can't afford to split votes, you can't be too surprised to be under the gun here. Yes, the mafia has no reason to defend anybody. If they defend one of their own who is a lynch target, it will raise huge amounts of suspicion on that person tomorrow. If they defend a town, well, that's just dumb because of what you posted.


From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.


I am genuinely confused on Bocki and BlueyD. At various points in the game, I've had both scum and town reads from both of them.

However, consider this: if Bocki is town, what would he gain by leaving his vote on BlueyD? BlueyD is basically in the same situation as Bocki, and he decided to switch his vote to you too. What else about Bocki gives you a scum read? What posts of his give you guilty vibes? You really have posted sufficient evidence to be convincing in my eyes.


Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.


My eye is on you, Bocki, and BlueyD. I haven't come up with a good case for or against BlueyD yet, but Bocki and BlueyD will be my focus for the remainder of the game. One of either me or Nova will likely end up assassinated at the end of the upcoming night cycle if the game still continues, so it is important for us to get our opinions in before then.


That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.


The strongest point here is that Nova has been incorrect in analysis 2 times. Guess what? I have too. I voted for those people as well, yet you read me as town and nova as scum. This is pretty inconsistent logic. I could very easily interpret that as you trying to make me suspicious of a townie Nova after I posted that he could be making an amazing mafia play.


Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.


So what's your reason for laying low besides being mafia? You have no reason to hide now, because if you do, you're lynched.

Secondly, there's limited information on you because of the persona you've presented during the game: Namely, you haven't posted much at all. When people were saying they had null reads on you, you still didn't post. It has only been under direct pressure that you've posted any sort of content at all.


He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.


You know what the best (maybe only) defense of this argument would be? Posting a reasoned argument as to why you changed your mind, with posts from BlueyD to illustrate your point. You still refuse to post substantial arguments.

No, I don't think I'll be changing my vote based on this post. I'm going to devote the rest of my time to more opaque players.
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 20:37 GMT
#358
Strangely enough, that post is consistent with your goofy behavior all game long. If you do end up flipping town, I hope you learn this is why lurky play can be bad.

Does anybody wish to counterclaim? Note that being a doctor here would be sufficient for directly counterclaiming, as the town is limited to 2 blues.

Sadly Nova, your read of me was wrong, and I'm as green as this guy:

[image loading]
LazinCajun
Profile Joined July 2011
United States294 Posts
April 09 2012 20:38 GMT
#359
EBWOP: your read that I'm blue was wrong*
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