EPTThis should be fun!
Newbie Mini Mafia VI
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
This should be fun! | ||
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strongandbig
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On March 31 2012 01:55 Mementoss wrote: I'd like an obs QT when this game starts please   Oh shit we're being watched! | ||
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strongandbig
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And kill our boss, Radfield, who I'm sure treated us all with respect and who we probably didn't all hate? | ||
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On March 31 2012 19:02 FourFace wrote: I am shocked. What did the the gator do wrong besides steal the shades? He's a carnivore what is he supposed to do, pass up his favorite meal? It would be insanely counterproductive to just kill this valuable asset to the zoo. What is that with euthanasia some sort of medic claim? Are you a vet or something? Have you made this decision without consulting anyone? And most of all .. Are you threatening us! 0_o You never know... Once a predator gets the taste for human flesh, it's hunger will never be slaked... Imo, therapist's euthanasia threat is so scummy he can't possibly be scum, no one would say something like that before going to actually murder someone... Unless that's exactly wha he wants us to think and he really is scum, and is hiding in plain sight... Ugh! Too meta, it's getting self-regressive! Take it to first order, maybe. | ||
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I gotta say, this seems pretty scummy and hiropro seems like an essentially random target to go after. I'm not going to vote yet - when do we need to vote by anyway? Did the deadline get changed or not - anyway, I'm not going to vote yet, but I think we should watch out for random accusations. There's only three explanations I could think of for busting out a basically random case like the one against hiropro. 1. Townie, busting out a case to start day 1 discussion. 2. Scum, trying to push us towards a mislynch day 1. 3. Townie, but just really convinced in his case. I think 1. is made more unlikely by the fact that he refuses to discuss his case with the rapist. That leaves 2 and 3 So Kohbee, if you have actual analysis on hiropro, please post it; otherwise, I'm going to keep looking at you suspiciously. | ||
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[b] ##vote: Kohbee [\b] | ||
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##vote: Kohbee | ||
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On April 02 2012 02:09 FourFace wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: FourFace at least I'll give you a real reason to vote me .. i'm the third person to jump on the bandwagon Pretty sure you can't vote for yourself, we went over that earlier. As for reads on me, it should be pretty easy; I think that unless Kohbee explains his early accusation on hiropro, it's suspicious. Personally I think that a case could definitely be made on fourface for being kind of domineering and trying to control the game, but I don't think he's scum yet. He was behaving exactly the same way before the game. Sure it's kind of obnoxious, but lynching someone for being obnoxious is exactly what mafia wants. | ||
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strongandbig
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On April 02 2012 02:52 FourFace wrote: EBWOP: I'm pretty confused  I was going to save up this reply for strongandbig: That is pure horseshit. Kohbee = useful imo. You want to kill someone useful = suspicious. You claim he's defensive about his push.. when did that happen? HiroPro acted super defensive by saying he can relate to Kohbee. End of reply. But then Kohbee in fact retracted his vote and now lynching HiroPro has lost his lynching value. So I'm switching to my secondary target: Therapist ##Vote: Therapist my secondary target now is strongandbig because he's also voting for Kohbee for no reason. Specifically, it's because of the way he reacted to therapist. "I don't talk to scum" seems to me to be a scummy thing to say since it lets you avoid engaging the town more than you have to and this potentially tripping yourself up or having to reveal too much information. Additionally, I maintain that choosing hiropro as the first lynch target was random. He had made one post between the start of the game and the time he was accused, and I see nothing in that one post to indicate he's any more or less suspicious than any of the other people who had, as of that accusation, only posted once or twice after receiving their roles. Now, I understand that calling out a random target could be a town action, to spark discussion and get more information out there. However - it could also be a scum action, hoping that a noob town bandwagons and gets a day 1 mislynch. It's a particularly safe scum action, since if the person flips town they could just claim they were trying to spark discussion. SO - in my eyes, Kohbee still seems suspicious. However, maybe not suspicious enough to warrant lynching him day 1 instead of one of the lurk-ier players. [b]##unvote:kohbee I'm willing to change my vote in the next few hours to either solohan, marvellosity, or therapist, since those people seem to have the strongest cases against them. Omnom also, but he has a pretty good excuse and I can see how someone overworked and frustrated about running a tournament would just check in briefly and vote for the most abrasive poster in the thread. I would also be willing to vote for Kohbee again. One last thing: I'm not sure why my question about the voting times seems suspicious. There was talk in the first few pages before the game started about changing the deadlines to accomodate European players, and I wasn't sure if that had gone through. I'm posting from my iPhone, which makes it hard to open one page of the thread at the same time as you're writing a post. One more last thing, specifically to the people voting for solohan: he has t voted yet, so if he's not just lurking but actually afk, he would get mod killed. It might still be worth lynching him in case he votes right before the deadline, but IMO it would be more efficient to all agree that unless he says something soon we'll just let him get mod killed, and then all agree to lunch him if he suddenly pops up and tries to rude the deadline. Lynching him when he's going to get modkilled for violating the rules anyway seems like a waste of a town kill. | ||
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strongandbig
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So scratch what I said about the modkill on solohan. I've presented my semi-case on Kohbee. I acknowledge that it's not a full case; it's just some reasons to be suspicious. I stand by my read, but I also can see that continuing to vote Kohbee won't yield good results unless other players agree with me. Therefore, [b]##unvote:kohbee[\b] It looks like the two main targets right now are solohan and therapist. I would still suggest we also consider marvellosity, since he joined the lynch a lurker bandwagon, and since he also joined the fourface is annoying bandwagon. However, I'm not ongus-Ing him; I think he would not be a good target right now, and his actions are also explainable from the town perspective. Could someone give me the case against therapist? So far it seems to me like the case is that he went after Kohbee for going after hiropro, which makes him suspicious because hiropro might be his mafia teammate. I can see that being a legitimate argument, but I'm not persuaded by it; as I said above, the scum explanation for kohbee's early vote is just as strong as the town explanation in my opinion, and I could also just be the fact that therapist jumped to that conclusion. The fact that he's not really defending himself does seem a bit suspicious though. | ||
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(if anyone's curious, the wrong slash is on the same page of symbols as the square bracket, so I keep hitting it by accident.) ##unvote Also therapist appears to have ninja'd me as well, iPhone fuck etc. | ||
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strongandbig
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Actually, even if Kohbee had kept his vote on hiro, the lynch had gone through, and hiro flipped scum, what would we have learned? At most, Kohbee would've been confirmed town, and gotten shot that night; I don't think confirming a single townie when they push a successful lynch is that valuable, since they would be an obvious target. That said, I'd like to point out how Kohbee subtly omgus'd me, then retreated from it before I had a chance to respond. I'm not convinced by the "if you were town" comment but I still think Kohbee is the scummiest person out there. | ||
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strongandbig
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No, I was clearly referring to the post you made where you said either I or marv would be a good lunch, which you followed up with one saying that therapist and marv would be good lynch candidates. That's why I called it subtle, you didn't actually. It for me in response to my having voted for you earlier; you just slipped my name into your little list of scum candidates. ##vote:kohbee Still open to voting for one of the candidates I mentioned in previous posts if someone makes a really good case in the next few hours. | ||
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strongandbig
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Regarding kohbee... I'm not sure what to think. I don't know why a blue would have acted the way he did all day, seems like a blue wouldn't have gone for a random starter lynch. If kohbee isn't scum then that was a really dumb action. Additionally, I still doubt the "trying to start discussion" story because of his response to therapist, which was just "I don't talk to scum" rather than actually discussing the questions. That doesn't sound like someone hunting scum to me. However, if he is scum it puts us in a bind. We don't know how many of each role are in the game so the fact that no one counter-claimed doesn't mean he's confirmed. But, if he is blue we can't really risk lynching him. Everyone's homework for tonight - try to think of a way we can confirm or deny kohbee's role/alignment without lynching him. Because I'm not going to believe him just because he said so. | ||
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On April 02 2012 12:05 Kohbee wrote: mafia has a roleblocker. I am basically a vanilla townie from now on. also, can you tell me why you said Because someone with a helpful role for the town wouldn't want to jump right out and bring the heat on themselves before they could use their power to help the town. At least, that's what I think. | ||
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strongandbig
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However we need to remember that people who were not already voting for you aren't cleared. Switching a vote to you after a blue claim would be an obvious scum tell when the claim turns out to be true. It would be much safer just to let you live and roleblock or shoot you. So where does that get us? If you are town, then four face would be clean. However he's the only one who actually switche off of you. Hiropro and marvellosity also helped save you, so I suppose hiropro is also town, since he could have kept his vote on solohan and allowed you to die. However, marvellosity had to take an action. Therefore he could not have said he was afk for your claim and lynch. Therefore, if you claimed, were lynched, and flipped blue, marvellosity would have been the obvious next target - not worth it for him if he's mafia, when they can just roleblock you. So, if you are town then the scum would be two out of me, marvellosity, omnom, solohan, and kb. Since it's not me, then we have a group of four out of whom 2 are mafia; however, you obviously have no reason to believe I'm town, so call it 2/5. However! This whole analysis is only valid if you are town. You could also be scum - a distinct possibility in my opinion. Next post will have that analysis. Sorry if I get ninja'd, I'm typing this on an iPhone. | ||
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strongandbig
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This would mean if Kohbee is scum, the other scum would have to be one out of fourface, omnom, marvel, kb, and hiropro. Not very helpful IMO. So all in all what do we have? No one absolutely confirmed town or scum, just relying on reads. I'll post some of my current reads later today before the night actions happen, but right now I have to go to class. | ||
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On April 03 2012 01:40 FourFace wrote: @strongandbig .. I'm sorry. @Solohan50 So where do we go from here? Did I go too far down the wifom rabbit hole? My main point was to answer kohbee's claim that we could go from the vote on him to such a small list of potential scum, and that it's a bit more complicated than he made it out to be. | ||
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1. Fourface was probably the smartest kill by scum. Despite being abrasive and annoying, he was also our only 100% confirmed townie. Let me explain - remember when I made my two posts about if Kohbee is or isn't really the cop? In the first one, I said that fourface was town if Kohbee is town, because if he was scum he could have let the claimed cop get lynched with basically no suspicion, just by claiming to have been afk between the claim and the resolution of the vote. IMO that was too good of a chance for scum to pass up- however only fourface and hiro actually had that chance. The thing is, I actually took out a couple of sentences from my next post on what it means if Kohbee is scum. If Kohbee is scum, then fourface would also have had to be town, since it was largely due to fourface changing his vote that Kohbee was so close to being lynched. Personally, I thought Kohbee was scum, but I was pressed to take my vote off him until fourface put his vote on Kohbee. I took that part out of my post because I was hoping mafia wouldn't realize that fourface was the only 100% confirmed innocent, and therefore their top lynch target. I guess they are smarter than I hoped - or else they were just as annoyed by fourface as everyone else... Gonna post this now, then start writing up some reads. | ||
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First up, kohbee. I stand by my read on Kohbee from day 1. His random vote on hiro was completely unjustified - hiro had done nothing scummy. Now as I said then, that could either e a town action or a scum action. For town, then it's trying to spark discussion by shocking us into action. However, it could also be a scum action - hoping that a noob town will bandwagon, leading to a mislynch; or an attempt by scum to distance themselves from each other. It would be a particularly good scum action, since there's a town explanation for it as well as a scum explanation, but the potential to causes mislynch in such a small game is a big advantage for scum. So, just from that action we don't know whether Kohbee is scum or town. However! Two things about Kohbee's actions yesterday make it unlikely that he's town. First his response to therapist - if he was really trying to spark discussion then it makes no sense to respond simply "I don't talk to scum" to someone who pushes you. That reeks of someone hoping to get town to bandwagon, rather than someone who wants us all to talk and get information out there. Second, he claimed to be the cop. In my opinion it makes no sense for the cop to be the person who jumps out with a random early vote. The potential for backfiring is obvious: it could draw attention from town, if they follow my initial analysis that the random vote could be either scummy or town, and it could draw heat from mafia if you start to look like a town leader, and get you shot. Pulling all that risk onto yourself as blue on day 1 makes no sense for town. Kohbee is scum. Reads on other players will come later, after my conference call - maybe at lunch time. | ||
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strongandbig
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These are going to be a bit more wishy-washy. There's less information on a lot of these people. Omnom - I don't get the same scum vibe off of him that some other people seem to. I think that if I were in the same situation as he was (tired, frustrated after a hard day that he didn't expect to be so difficult, etc) then I would have responded in much the same way to the hugely annoying argument between fourface and kohbee. HOWEVER - this doesn't mean he's town. He's been posting a ton since the end of his tournament - his filter is longer than mine, despite not being able to pay attention to the thread for like the first third of it - and a lot of his posts are filler or arguing with people. Therefore, unsure - leaning town-ish Solohan The toughie of the group today. He doesn't post much, which is something that people seem to be treating as a mafia tell. However, when he does post, he takes a strong stand. That's not very much of a scum tell. He has nine posts, all of which are in this thread. He could be scum, but he also might not be. Unsure - leaning scummy? hiropro Nope, not much of a read here either. Don't think he's scum. His day 1 actions don't add up (unless he and kohbee are both scum, but I think that's unlikely.) unsure - leaning townie Marvellosity His day 1 vote flipflops were kind of suspicious, and I don't think he's made it back from that yet. All that said! As I've said countless times, in the same case I've been making since day 1, I think Kohbee is scum. ##vote: Kohbee | ||
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strongandbig
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Everyone will have to make up their own mind, but I am not persuaded by your explanation of your actions towards hiropro. In large part that's due to a gut feeling that there was nothing specific about hiropro that would lead you to focus so intently on him early, as well as the other things I said earlier. Additionally, there's another possibility which I hadn't considered earlier - that you and hiro could both be scum, and the random vote was an early distance attempt. This is added to by the fact that I don't see why "not caring that someone is voting for you" is a town reaction, especially in a newbie game. I guess that could be a matter of style, so it could be town, but I'm not sure why such a meek reaction would have placated you when you were drilling so hard at hiro. That said - I agree that if you do turn out to be blue, then marvellosity looks very suspicious. I tend to prefer analyzing actions to words (this is the first forum mafia game I've played, so I wouldn't know what to do with meta even if we had some), so obviously his questionable day 1 puts him on my radar. There are other things about his actions that would smell bad if you do flip blue, as well - his analysis of how people opposed to you "wound up dead" would then smell like a relatively heavy-handed mafia frame-up. At this moment we have five town and two mafia left alive. If today does turn out to be a mislynch, assuming a successful hit then tomorrow will be three town and two mafia, aka LYLO. However, I think we will be able to find at least one mafia at that time. I also don't think we will have a mislynch. | ||
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On April 05 2012 02:43 KharadBanar wrote: After reading everyone's thoughts about Kohbee, I have to say he still doesn't look that scummy to me. I am still in favor of a lynch against Solohan50, especially since Kohbee really took our advice to heart and is now posting regularly and with some thought behind his statements. He still hasn't confirmed himself town through his actions, but I have the feeling he's getting there. Solohan50 on the other hand has again posted once solely to defend against Kohbee's and my accusation and has been missing since. I'll say it again: If he's not scum, him getting lynched is absolutely no loss to town with his behaviour. With only one mislynch left until LYLO, we can't afford to think like that. Solohan's posting style rings true for me with his claim about his motivations. When you look at his account, he only has 11 posts and they're all on this thread. It seems likely that he's someone who got brought in to TL by a friend to play a mafia game, so it also makes sense that he would get kind of jaded when that friend gets lynched as collateral damage day 1 to a fight between the two most prolific posters. That said - I just reread his brief filter again, and something seemed kind of off to me. Specifically, his use of "kohbee and fourface fought and now fourface is dead" as evidence against kohbee. This could be true, but if kohbee is not mafia then the mafia could have chosen to kill kohbee as part of a frameup. I still think kohbee is mafia, but I'm starting to see the logic behind saying "if kohbee flips blue then solohon is a suspect." However, I continue to see many other people as also suspicious. | ||
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However, it obviously made sense to other people, so maybe I'm wrong. Could be either way, and since he's not here to defend himself I'm gonna stop dissing on him. | ||
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On April 05 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote: Which means I'm going to explain my town read on him later on (there's a reason for this, trust me guys :O) If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter. You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move. The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him. ##Vote: Kohbee From solohan50: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following: - He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim). - One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched. - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia. Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide. | ||
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strongandbig
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After KB, marvellosity was the second person to jump on the "lunch a lurker" bandwagon against solohan. This could have been a distancing gambit, but it does throw a wrench into the analysis. What we have to decide is, would marvellosity have believed that there was a realistic chance for solohan to get lynched day 1 for lurking? (Assume for now that if solohan is scum, he was in communication with his buddy despite being afk. Maybe with a smartphone. I think that if one scum actually thought the other scum wasn't going to post that day, he probably wouldn't try to start a lurker lynch bandwagon on him.) Depending on how risky of a move it would have seemed, we can maybe figure out the chance that one scum would join that incipient bandwagon on another. | ||
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That was some really fucking impressive foresight by KB. I did think he might get killed since people were saying he was town, but people have said that about myself, and hiropro as well. So! I've had a few beers at the moment, so I won't be posting much analysis tonight. I also need to think some more about what this means for us as a town. | ||
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First, we should lynch solohan. If it were just me, then I wouldn't be 100% confident in my read of him as scummy. However, since Kohbee did flip blue and was so confident in his read, and since there are some pretty good arguments other than just "he feels scummy" for him being scum, I'm going to stick with that vote. We need to get a successful lynch. If we do that, then after the night kill tonight it will be LYLO again at 2 town 1 mafia, but at least the remaining town will have one more night's worth of data to identify the last mafia. The only thing that worries me is the Monty Hall problem. We know that solohan is not the mafia goon. This means that from a purely statistical point of view, he has only a 25% chance of being mafia whereas for the rest of us there is a 40% chance of being mafia. (I know this sounds like a paradox, but it's not. It's a classic high school math team problem, google monty hall paradox for more.) However, I still think we should lynch him. Mafia isn't a game of hoping to get lucky; it's a game of making reads and educated guesses. It seems like our collective best educated guess is that solohan is mafia. So my current thinking for who is the second mafia. First, we have the question of the day 1 lynch. As I said waay back in the thread (it was in my "if kohbee flips town" analysis post), I don't think that mafia could give up the chance for a completely free lynch of someone who just claimed a blue role, especially on day 1. However, in my opinion that chance was only open to FourFace and Hiropro. Either of those two could have kept their vote on kohbee and allowed him to die, then claimed they were afk for the hour between his last-minute claim and the voting deadline. So I don't think that hiro is scum. Additionally, on day 2 hiro voted for solohan instead of kohbee, which made it a 4-3 vote instead of a 5-2 vote. If we believe solohan is actually mafia, then this makes no sense - it would allow one last-minute switch to lynch the other mafia member instead of the claimed cop. So I agree with kohbee's last post, if solohan is mafia it doesn't make sense for hiropro to be the other mafia. That said, I actually thought up until the death of KB that hiro was the second blue role. His play on day 1 in response to the accusation from kohbee seemed more passive than I would have expected from a vanilla townie. His posting hasn't been all that town-ey, as pointed out by marvellosity - hiro hasn't done much to scum hunt. However, his voting record is enough to clear him, IMO. As I've said before, I'm more comfortable at the moment analyzing actions rather than words. So that leaves omnommuffins and marvellosity. omnom's posts were pretty aggressive towards kohbee. However, they were no more aggressive than mine, and IMO they could easily be explained as coming from someone who had just had a hard day and then had to deal with the kohbee vs fourface flame war of death. However, I find it a bit suspicious that omnom tried to get us to find and lynch the "mafia killer" instead of solohan. I feel like someone who's played so much IRL mafia would know that the mafia always get a kill, even if they have other roles. (Unless she's claiming that in her irl mafia games the mafia doctor or cop don't get to kill anyone if they're the only person left, which I would think would be a really odd rule for a game of mafia.) And also, it should be super-obvious that we need to make the clearest lynch no matter what, since this is LYLO; so anyone saying we shouldn't lynch the most probable mafia is pretty suspicious. Marvellosity, on the other hand, has a couple of major points against him imo: first, his flip-floppy voting on day 1, and second, the multiple times he's tried to tell us how we should interpret the mafia's night kills. (Specifically, I'm referring here to the posts of mine and Kohbee's that were quoted by KB in his last will and testament.) So for now I think that the most likely candidate for second mafia, assuming we decide to lynch solohan (which I I think we should) and that he flips red (which I think he will), would be marvellosity. However, I'm not confident enough in that read to feel like I have the thing sewn up. Marvellosity posted his case against hiropro just above; I'd like to see a response to it from hiropro. I'd also like to hear what everyone else thinks about who the mafia might be, and about what everyone has said so far. Basically, we could just gamble on what we have and go for it, but more information would be better! Let's get our posting on, people! | ||
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Hiropro says it's omnommuffins. I say it's probably marvellosity but I'm not sure. Marvellosity says it's hiropro. Omnommuffins who do you think the remaining mafia player is? It would be good to have your opinion. I've read through your posts in this thread since the Kohbee lynch, and I don't see anything from you on that. | ||
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On April 08 2012 04:56 marvellosity wrote: Grats for totally ignoring my point on the voting on Day 1. I'm starting to think you're doing so wilfully. In the meantime ##Vote: Solohan50 When you voted for Therapist it was 3-3. That's not the same kind of "free" lynch as I was talking about before. What I meant was when someone could claim to not have read the roleclaim from kohbee. You would have had to vote for kohbee after he roleclaimed. Anyway my feeling is not only based on that. | ||
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Anyway the point is that you still hadn't voted when kohbee claimed his role. I was talking about people who could safely claim to have not seen him claim. | ||
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When I say that people who turned down the "free lynch" are less suspicious, I mean people who didn't have to act. You had to act or else you would have been modkilled. The mafia motivation is that it makes more sense for mafia to save the cop, thereby gaining town cred, and then roleblock him, than it does for mafia to publicly kill him after he made his roleclaim. The only time it makes sense for mafia to have him lynched after his roleclaim is if they can do it through inaction. | ||
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On April 08 2012 08:19 Solohan50 wrote: ##Vote: strongandbig Thanks, man. | ||
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Fourface and hiropro didn't have to do anything after he claimed. | ||
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As for going after him the next day, I need to think some more about how that all went down. Obviously since I also went after him, I believe that there was a town rationale for doing so. However, that doesn't mean there wasn't also a scum rationale for it. | ||
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Very interesting though. I feel like I'm in a Poirot movie or something... "the murderer is among us - in this very room!" | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On April 10 2012 03:09 marvellosity wrote: So, this omnom killing seems to have thrown us into silence/confusion. I'm guessing whoever is town is confused and not sure what to think/analyse at the moment. I've been jotting down things in notepad, and I've realised I can't sit here in silence, because: a) if Hiro is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to lynch me with strongandbig's help, who has been suspecting me for much of the game b) if strongandbig is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to bring Hiro over to his case against... me again. Now, for some reason mafia thought that killing omnom muffins would be the strongest move, principally because they thought they could get someone else lynched with someone else's help, saving themself. What I can't quite get my head around is that omnom was a good and likely lynch target for anyone involved, it's why this is so tricky. One thing I can think of is this: omnom clearly stated she was going to make a case against Hiro, and as she flipped townie, we can presume that clearly she meant to make a case. This is a decent reason for omnom to be the nightkill, especially given omnom's erratic posting pattern, the kill could occur before omnom made her case (as it indeed occurred). Taking this further into some if buts - Hiro leaves omnom alive, and kills me. omnom goes on to make her case against Hiro, which coupled with my previous case and subsequent death, would be fairly compelling evidence against Hiro. Or, Hiro kills s&b, leaving - me and omnom, both of whom have either already or are planning to make cases against Hiro. Hiro could also be heavily relying on s&b not taking any of this at any worth, because s&b would be thinking of me as mafia. If s&b was mafia, I can't see good enough reasoning for him not leaving omnom alive. This post has been a bit of a journey of discovery for me. But, based on: a) my previously made case vs Hiro b) s&b's longstanding suspicion of me c) omnom's suspicion of hiro and the nightkill only making sense from hiro's perspective, I firmly believe that HiroPro is scum. ##Vote: HiroPro A lot of this makes some amount of sense to me. However - I'm still not entirely convinced. Why would HiroPro have posted this yesterday, knowing that he was going to kill omnom? + Show Spoiler + On April 09 2012 08:56 HiroPro wrote: If I die, lynch omnom. Neither strong nor marvel look like mafia to me and omnom has been anti-town this entire game. Read my last couple of posts on omnom. I think this is it for me  I don't think this post makes sense if hiropro is going to kill omnom. It undermines any case he could make against either of us. He would have to rely on us making cases against each other. Now, it's possible that he would, since I've been suspicious of you and you indicated yesterday that you were suspicious of me. But (and here I am inserting how I would play into someone else's head again) it seems like that would be too risky compared to killing either one of us and trying to persuade the other one to go after omnommuffins. Actually, it seems to me that if hiro was the mafia, the best move would have been to kill you and then convince me that omnommuffins is the scum. Hiro has been pushing his case against omnom for basically the whole game, and it was a relatively convincing one imo. For the last five days, he's said pretty much daily that omnom is his guess for the second mafia. You say that because I've been suspicious of you, it makes sense for hiropro to kill omnom because then he could hope to persuade me to lynch you. That's true, so I really want to hear what hiropro has to say about the situation. However, that also smells a lot like the analysis you made on the fourface killing: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). ##Vote: Kohbee And the post that Kohbee pointed out in his pre-death post: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? ... In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. ... He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. I also note that Solohan made the same sort of analysis: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. It sounds like fourface was killed because the mafia thought that it would help them convince town to lynch Kohbee. HOWEVER! Here's a post from solohan that makes me feel very uncertain about the idea that he and marvellosity could have been scum together: On April 05 2012 03:08 Solohan50 wrote: I probably should've done this on my last post, but ##Vote: Kohbee. At this point, it's either myself or Kohbee that are getting lynched today, and everyone knows where I stand. If Kohbee gets lynched and flips green/blue, then it's my nuts on the chopping block, most likely followed by marvellosity. If Kohbee flips red, then I think HiroPro is the next likely candidate. He's been relatively consistent in voting for me, he helped bandwagon Therapist at the end of Day 1, and seems to be defending Kohbee against my attacks. It's not an ironclad, bulletproof case, but that's what I think. With that said, carry on gentlemen. The next few hours should be interesting. If you do decide to lynch me, make sure the noose is an extra large one; my head is fairly large. Interesting note: this is the only time in the entire game that solohan mentioned either of you by name. It seems like it makes little sense for him to associate himself with his scumbuddy like this - to me, this post could be a point against hiropro and a point in marvellosity's favor. However, that becomes a bit of wifom analysis; kohbee had recently accused solohan and marvellosity of being the scum team together, and everyone's thoughts were leaning in that direction. So now we come to the thing that I focused on almost exclusively for the first few days of this game; the thing that convinced me that Kohbee was scum. The day 1 vote. On March 30 2012 04:44 Cephiro wrote: Day 1 Vote History: Kohbee voted HiroPro Therapist voted Kohbee FourFace voted HiroPro KharadBanar voted Solohan50 marvellosity voted Solohan50 strongandbig voted Kohbee omnomMuffins voted FourFace marvellosity unvoted Solohan50 marvellosity voted FourFace FourFace unvoted HiroPro Kohbee unvoted HiroPro FourFace voted Therapist HiroPro voted omnomMuffins HiroPro unvoted omnomMuffins HiroPro voted Solohan50 Kohbee voted Solohan50 KharadBanar unvoted Solohan50 strongandbig unvoted Kohbee Solohan50 voted Kohbee marvellosity unvoted FourFace KharadBanar voted Therapist Kohbee voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Therapist FourFace voted Kohbee strongandbig voted Kohbee HiroPro unvoted Solohan50 HiroPro voted Therapist marvellosity voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Kohbee FourFace voted marvellosity Marvellosity voted solohan right after KB did, then unvoted him pretty soon afterward when omnom made her protest vote against fourface. Hiropro voted solohan in response to a post from kohbee (accidentally on his roommate's account) where kohbee said that he should vote for someone with more votes so mafia couldn't swing the vote. I actually don't know how I should lean on this end of things. So what am I going to conclude from this? First, there's the wifom argument trying to explain the killing. As marvellosity says, since hiropro knows I suspect marvellosity, killing omnom could make sense because he could get me to then lynch marv. Additionally, omnom said she was going to make a case against hiropro. However, hiropro has been making a case against omnom for basically the whole game. To me, it doesn't make sense for the mafia to kill the person they'd been making their case against, since they then have to start making a whole new case up for the last day and start trying to persuade people to join them. This is especially true since I probably could have been persuaded to vote against omnom if she had lived, since her play seemed pretty scummy. Other than that, there's hiro's post yesterday, which seems town-ish to me in light of omnom dying. The reason for this is that it undermines any case hiro would make today against either of us being scum. There's also the fact that marvellosity's analysis of the mafia's night kill seems similar to the argument about fourface's death, which I suspect was an attempt by mafia to frame kohbee, and to the post kohbee found suspicious on day 1 - as well as to the post by solohan about fourface's death. However, in Marvellosity's favor there's that inexplicable post by solohan, as well as the fact that omnom said he was going to make a case against hiropro. So right now, I'm leaning towards marvellosity being the last scum. But, I think it could be hiropro - I'm hesitant to trust this because I was so wrong in analyzing kohbee's behavior, but it doesn't seem to make sense for marvellosity to leave me alive if he's the scum, especially given that he then tries to get me to vote for hiropro and not the other way around. He knows it would be an uphill battle to convince me to vote for hiropro. Hiropro, a post from you going over your view of the game at this point would really be great. | ||
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Hiro has said very little in the last few days. However, your arguments about how we should interpret the night kills sound really scummy to me. Just like I believe fourface was killed in order to set up the frame on kohbee, it also seems like omnom could have been killed so that you could say "why would I do that?" Right now I'm reading filters. | ||
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On April 11 2012 07:20 marvellosity wrote: Oh good god. Of course I could bloody say "why would I do that". But how can you possibly believe that my chances in that situation would be higher than killing you? THAT is the question. Nothing more. I'll put it as a 2 parted, related question: 1) Would my chances as mafia of victory be higher in killing strongandbig and having my choice of wagon be higher than killing omnom and having to plead with the townsperson to win? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... 2) Do you think I'm stupid enough to have thought that pleading a wifom case on the final day was a better play than killing you and lynching someone else during the final day? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... Basically, do you think I'm an idiot? To reiterate one more time, I COULD HAVE set this up to say "why would I do that". But clearly my chances were far higher in killing strongandbig regardless. Well, Solohan was an idiot. Here's something else I found in his filter: On April 03 2012 01:33 Solohan50 wrote: I find it amusing that Kohbee is sitting here telling the entire thread who is scum, based off of who voted to lynch him. I would be more worried about some of the last-minute switches than I would about the people who thought you were scum from the start. A last minute vote-switch to the Therapist bandwagon would be the perfect place for scum to hide. It gives them all the credibility in the world, even if they have to miss out on the supposed "Cop". What better way to pretend you're not scum than to say "But I saved the Cop at the end?". | ||
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##vote: hiropro | ||
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Fuck | ||
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lost the huge post i had ##vote: hiropro hiro's day 1 play did not seem town to me, he was too afraid to defend himself. unlike kohbee i don't think not giving a fuck that there's a vote on you is a sign of being town. also it makes absolutely no fucking sense for marvellosity to kill omnom. hiro and omnom had been accusing each other for days of being mafia. this is directed at all the townies in the obs thread who are gonna call me a moron if i get this wrong. screw all y'all. strongandbig out | ||
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Marv you gotta admit solohan made you look pretty bad, all your cases were wifom and he did the exact same kind of wifom as you But the main reason I had such a hard time voting for hiro is that I felt so crappy about getting kohbee killed, and he was so sure that hiro was town. Anyway I feel like slightly less of an idiot now | ||
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On April 11 2012 09:48 marvellosity wrote: Can I just give props to therapist for a moment... from the obs QT - Therapist. 04-04-2012 09:48 PM ET (US) Solohan and Hiropro are scum. Guarunteed. That was a week ago! Yeah pretty impressive. | ||
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On April 11 2012 10:15 Kohbee wrote: solohan is his friend irl remember. I doubt that is a completely self-created prediction. I find it really really really fucking ironic that you guys ending by lynching the guy you got me lynched over. I want to know strong, why did you think that hiropro was scum? In all honesty I think town won on a lucky guess by you and marvel because there was no logical reasoning for anything the 2 of you did. I'll post a big post with thoughts at the end of the game. Preview: KB and hiropro rule, everyone else sucks We'll have to agree to disagree. I still think your play made no sense either. | ||
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On April 12 2012 00:33 Kohbee wrote: listen, you can keep belittling my argument all you want and sweeping it under the rug but please don't tell me I fail to understand what happened. I will put it this way. Lets say that Hiropro had decided to kill strongandbig and then the entire day screamed at omnom that he would have killed omnom for an easy win and that he would have to be stupid to have killed strongandbig. If it played out like the last day did, you would have been lynched and hiropro would have won using WIFOM logic. I don't think that you realize that strongandbig did not KNOW you were town like you did. So the reason I decided to vote with Marvellosity was because the night kill of omnom really made no sense from his point of view. He said that several times, but I was already thinking it. At first I thought it didn't make sense from Hiro's point of view either, so I wasn't sure what to do; Hiro had been building his case on omnom up for quite some time, and omnom looked *really scummy* at that point. However, I eventually became convinced that if Marvellosity was mafia, he could have won easily by killing me. Hiropro and omnommuffins had been accusing each other for days, and all he would have to do is watch the sparks fly. On the other hand, Hiropro knew I'd been suspicious of Marvellosity - largely based on your last post, Kohbee, and on the similarities between his and Solohan's interpretations of why Fourface died. So for Hiropro, killing omnom would set back his own case on the last day, but it would leave me alive and give him a chance to make a stronger case against Marvellosity. Now, your only response when Marv and I explained this has been "that's wifom! Don't analyze night kills!" You keep saying that despite the fact that several veterans have come in here and said that in this case, analyzing the night kill made sense. I'll post this from the Mafia Wiki: Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative. If you keep willfully ignoring this aspect of the game, your play will suffer from it. There are times when night kill analysis should be disregarded, and there are times when it should not. I also had been suspicious of Hiro since day 1, when he reacted so passively to your accusation. However, you kept insisting that was a "town reaction." Eventually, I decided to just go with my gut on that (and with fourface, who said that Hiro was "playing scared"). Finally, I decided that there was no way that Solohan would link himself and his scum buddy like he did in the "if kohbee flips blue" post I quoted on the last day. From what I'd learned about Solohan's play reading his one-page filter a bajillion times, his play could be characterized as "trying to manipulate the town but doing so badly." His frame-up of you for killing fourface was bad; I voted for you in spite of that, thinking that if you were scum then Solohan and Marvellosity were just really bad townies. Ditto the aggressive posts he made against you on other parts of the day. It was totally in line for him to have posted what boils down to "hey guys! I know I'm gonna get bussed but when I do you shouldn't vote for Hiropro!" I was hesitant to trust any of these pieces of evidence on its own, especially since Marvellosity's bandwagoning on day 1 and his posting similarities with Solohan on day two had already made me suspicious. However, all together they pushed me to vote for Hiropro. Believe what you will, I did not just vote together with the person who was the most excited about it (or "called my name the loudest" or however you put it). That would have been a whole fucking lot easier to decide, and I wouldn't have had to sprint back from dinner when my phone ran out of batteries because I would have voted like five hours earlier. | ||
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