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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
I have not played any forum Mafia games before, neither on TL nor on other sites. I have however played Mafia IRL to some degree, and I am closely following the Aperture Mafia thread on this forum, which is really awesome. Good Luck and Have Fun everybody! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
If it starts tonight, I'll probably start posting tomorrow morning. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On March 30 2012 20:45 marvellosity wrote: Did you decide whether you were going to expand the game by 2-4 players? If he expands the game, he'll probably update the OP accordingly. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
It is good for them when the thread is like this, but I believe the goal for mafia is a broader one: To make the posts with actual reads or cases less visible. This can be accomplished through simply boring town out of reading the thread, but it can also be through lowering the overall signal-to-noise ratio. If one serious post of a competent player making a case is buried under ten posts of "jokes, references to StarCraft, memes and word play", fewer people will pay attention to it than in an overall serious discussion. This does NOT mean that you should lurk until you have gathered enough evidence to accuse someone of being scum, because that is not something we want on Day 1. However, it means that after the early game when there is enough material in the thread to seriously analyse, off-topic discussion, joking and the like helps scum rather than it hurts them. So by all means, post away on Day 1, but let's get more into "real" game play after that. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
Also, I have a suspicion that FourFace and Kohbee are going to want to lynch one another soon oO | ||
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KharadBanar
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gl hf and gg guys | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
First, Radfield dies, then he somehow manages to post in the thread. But not only that, he also misstates something from his own OP. Conclusion: That's not Radfield, that's an impostor! We can however not vote for him because he's officially dead, and you can't vote for dead people, as per the OP. So that's where we are now: Our host is dead, and an impostor roams free, and that's not even including the scum within our game. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
Anyway, back to in-character posting. | ||
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KharadBanar
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KharadBanar
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I will not accept any arguments from you, impostor! And what did you do with Radfield? | ||
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KharadBanar
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On April 01 2012 00:50 marvellosity wrote: 6 pages in and all we've managed so far is joviality and sarcasm. This bodes well. The problem here is that it's pretty hard to identify scum when there's not a single action that has been taken yet. The only chance we have right now is suspecting people based on their posting behaviour (lurking). But even this is not very reliable. After the first night it looks a bit different because people can now analyse both the night actions and each other's posting, so this is where the game really picks up. I was following the Aperture Mafia game pretty closely from the start, and the way they "solved" this problem was a random vigshot that happened 19 minutes after the first daypost. Drazerk claimed the kill and suddenly the discussion was all over the place, giving everybody tons of leads. But without some kind of Day 1 events that could happen, I think there can't really be much substance to our posts until then, except meta-analysis like this that is ultimately useless to the game. Still, people should try to at post something so as not to be identified as lurkers. Remember: More activity also means more possibility for slip-ups by scum players. And if those scum players don't want to risk such a slip, they attract attention for lurking. That's me done for this rant, make of it what you will. [Disclaimer: Bear in mind that this is the first forum Mafia game in which I actively participate. The point I'm trying to make here stems from my considerations, not from actual play experience.] On April 01 2012 01:30 HiroPro wrote: Is there a reason that you feel the need to adopt a character? You wouldn't be trying to hide something, would you? I originally wanted to role-play at least a little bit, especially on day one. In that sense, in-character posting is considered arguing with the other players and weaving some flavour into my posts (see my glhfgg Post with the "HELP!"). Adressing the moderator directly and talking about the edit timestamp on the OP is something I would consider at least slightly out-of-character =P So that's where that comes from. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
And yes you can call me KB if you want to. Also sorry for screwing up with my posts earlier >_> I hope to redeem myself with actual town play later. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 01 2012 03:38 Kohbee wrote: I don't like your plan because IMO none of your traits can be assigned to an alignment. I answered in spoilers each trait. I don't want to go in what we should actually be looking for or you'll try to lynch me for giving newbie advice when not asked for. You were my second scum team member. Thanks for confirming with me I like how you had two scum suspects before the first day is half over. Someone is being really "productive" here. ^^ I also want to talk a little bit about FourFace's list of traits to watch: I'd say the traits CAN tell something about alignment, but 1) only if they are intelligently analysed and 2) there is no rule which binds alignment to any of them in a straightforward fashion. So if someone has a super short reaction time to accusations, it says nothing about whether he's scum or not, it just says he keeps F5ing the thread like a maniac. But if that person then goes really quiet after a specific FoS post against him and eventually posts something that isn't a super elaborate defense, THEN you can get really suspicious/start a bandwagon. It's all a matter of how the individual factors play together. I think decoupling them and giving everyone the job to look after a specific trait for each player is counterproductive in that situation. But that does not mean that you shouldn't look for scumtells by actually keeping a close eye on how any player posts, just do it intelligently please. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
So no, I don't think this strategy will be very effective. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
I am however quite cautious in what possibilities we give scum to exploit us, and I really think "trait reports" by every player would help them more than us so I advise against it. I do however strongly advise for everybody to make up their own opinions about other players and who looks the most scummy to them. But don't tell everybody right away, because that starts bandwagoning and allows scum to bias the views of the town. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 01 2012 03:30 FourFace wrote: To find out who's the right guy for which job I'd like to ask a couple of questions first: What do you prefer playing: town or scum and why? I personally like town more, because I am in this game for the thrill of the unknown, and finding out who the scum actually are is the most rewarding feeling in this game for me, even more so than deceiving the town players into lynching each other as scum. What role would you like to be in this setup and why? I would quite like to see a Paranoid Gun Owner (killing everyone visiting him) in this setup, because the role is quite easy to understand (this is a newbie game after all) and introduces little additional decision making complexity, yet can manage to turn the game around quite drastically. This can make it a quite fun role to have around, because it can make for unexpected turns of events. On April 01 2012 05:13 FourFace wrote: Have you ever seen this policy implemented before? I haven't and I thought to myself it would at least make everyone feel as if they are useful while being useful.. to me. No, I actually haven't, but I believe there is a reason why people don't bring it up, as I elaboated earlier. This is all I have seen in your posts so far that has question marks; if I have missed something, feel free to remind me. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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On April 01 2012 08:32 FourFace wrote: I choose to imagine Arnold Schwarzenegger's/Thor's voice talking while I read KB's posts :> This just made my day. What is best in life? To be right in a scum vote, to see them flip before you, and to hear the lamentations of their buddies! Re-engage serious mode: On April 01 2012 11:26 FourFace wrote: 3. In this game it would be awesome to have a Veterinary Medicine College Dropout Aquarium Cleaning Guy who has all the reasons to hate Radfield (see I can spell your name correctly if i please) due to the unrewarding physical labor and shitty wage and who is suspected to have gotten promised a nice sum of cash if he partners up with Cephiro because the note kind of resembles his handwriting. He knows how to tranquilize the animals so he would be perfect for the job but everyone knows him as a stand up guy who wouldn't tell a lie and he claims his innocence so he's town. But he's also scum who succumbed to the temptation of easy cash. How come? He has two personalities who function independently of one another day/night.. therefore he's played by two players sharing the account. The replacement can use the original player's account logging in with a temporary password as soon as nighttime falls up until dawn and is a fully pledged member of the scum faction and thus has access to the scumQT. Really? In a newbie game? Imagine someone playing this game for the first time and getting to be the Veterinary Medicine College Dropout Aquarium Cleaning Guy. He reads his PM and goes "WHAT??? How does my role even work?" Also remember that the player has to give up his account temporarily and completely trust another player (who? How is that determined?) with his account for each night. The other guy could easily get him banned for some completely unrelated reason, and no one can prove it was him. ALSO, how do you prevent the day player from logging on at night? He has to set the password for the night player, so he can log onto his account anyway and post at night with his normal personality (He doesn't get access to the QT though). The same thoughts apply to the prime evils in your Diablo II game setup (Note that I haven't got anything against a Diablo II setup from a flavour standpoint, I would instantly join such a game if it gets hosted): One does not simply Destroy A Whole Forum Page (not even temporarily). And planting a post on a player, while more doable than the role described above, is nothing I would want in my game either. I hope you think a bit more about your roles if you ever get to host a game. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 01 2012 22:07 FourFace wrote: I think lynching HiroPro would give the most info. If Kohbee stays firm on his vote and he flips scum Kohbee is confirmed town and Therapist is very suspicious. If he flips town we got nothing whatsoever If that is the move that gives us "the most information", we're in a pretty bad situation. With a 2/9 probability (if he flips scum), it tells us that Therapist might also be scum. Otherwise it does exactly nothing. If Kohbee gets lynched and flips town, we have essentially gained no information because it says absolutely nothing about the alignment of HiroPro, and the tell against Therapist is pretty weak even then. If he is scum, then HiroPro is either his buddy and he tried to gambit, or he played standard and HiroPro is a townie, so no real gain here either. (Don't lynch Kohbee). Lynching Therapist: If he's scum, there is at least a higher-than-average chance that either Kohbee or HiroPro is scum (he could try to gambit or he could defend his buddy), but in the case he's town we're looking pretty stupid again. Our problem is that we have a (6/8)³ = 42% chance (from each townie's point of view) that none of those three is scum whatsoever. That is pretty high, and we can't really afford to act as if we know there is a scum player within them, because we don't. I would rather look at a lurker lynch for today, because then at least our efficiency as a town goes up if it hits a townie. Look at Solohan50's and omnomMuffins's filters: They're completely devoid of any discussion whatsoever. At least omnomMuffins explains it. On March 30 2012 05:40 omnomMuffins wrote: I will be sporadic until Monday, but then I can start really really reading  So, ##Vote: Solohan50 | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
Aside note: I'm going to be an a LAN party until Tuesday. I can't exactly say how much I will be posting from there because I will be preoccupied with gaming, but I'll try my best. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 02 2012 00:07 FourFace wrote: That is the weirdest excuse to prepare for lurking. Do you have internet at your Lan party? You want me to believe you can't take a 5 minute break and maybe show other people how cool tl mafia is? I find that so weird. I it something official that I can look up somewhere or is it just conveniently between friends? It's not lurking, I'm just saying that I might take longer to react that otherwise (case in point: this post). On April 02 2012 01:50 omnomMuffins wrote: Sorry for being a forum noob again.......... EBWOP? It means Edit By Way Of [double] Post. Because editing is forbidden in Mafia games (so that you can't "retcon" your posts), you have to correct yourself by doubleposting, which is not discouraged in this forum. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 02 2012 03:37 HiroPro wrote: Of the two lurkers (Solohan50 and omnomMuffins), the case against omnomMuffins is stronger because of the extremely illogical vote. Marvellosity is also possibly mafia. I don't think his vote on FourFace is necessarily a big scumtell. While I don't agree with it, I definitely recognize how he could be seen as annoying enough not to want him in the game anymore. Also, FourFace isn't the most consistent player out there. All in all, that's a slight scumtell there but nothing that really warrants a vote in my eyes. Solohan50 on the other hand hasn't posted at all since his first flavour post, and has given us no excuse as to why, so even if he is town a lynch on him is not a very big loss. Lynching the lurkiest player is the most risk-free strategy in our situation, I think. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
##unvote | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 02 2012 04:30 FourFace wrote: So, what do you have now.. what's your research .. where are your leads. You don't have anything. That's just sterling KB, awesome. I didn't say I don't have anything. But I hadn't made a complete list of people ordering them by scumminess, I just had a "most viable" lynch in mind. Now that he has given a reason for him not receiving today's lynch, I' reconsidering. And excuse me if I don't instantly give away all my leads, because Mafia can operate on that. I will read the filters again and come up with someone better to vote. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 02 2012 04:51 FourFace wrote: FourFace: meh, you got nothing on me. But if you get something try not to talk gibberish and explain every aspect of your allegations like you're telling it to an alien from K-Pax. Saying stuff like I'm not consistent and that's a minor scumtell is just driving me nuts because I have to think for the guy who accused me. Wait what? Are you accusing yourself? Or are you talking to me? And yes that's right, I got nothing on you. But not a strong town read either. It's entirely possible that a scum wants to get himself into the leading position of the town (I did this in one game IRL and it worked great). Also, your aggressive behaviour makes constructive argumentation not exactly easier. Now to some other things: At the moment I'm leaning Therapist, because he still hasn't gone off his Kohbee vote yet, whom I have marked as pretty townish in my mind. Kohbee: You stated that marvellosity and strongandbig are good vote targets. Care to elaborate? ##Vote: Therapist This is not final yet, but I am too distracted to 100% think right now (LAN party -.-) | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
If anyone else is ready to take his vote off Kohbee, I'm ready to follow unless I really don't agree with the new vote. | ||
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On April 02 2012 08:46 Therapist. wrote: This is my first game of mafia after all. If you're a townie, I'll take a good lesson from this for the future. FourFace, Solohan50 and strongandbig: There is still the possibility of switching your vote to Therapist. | ||
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KharadBanar
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KharadBanar
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Seriously: Just a few minutes after the passing away of FourFace, active participator in the greatest flame war to date, you two start a new one-on-one where you both accuse each other of being scum and no real information is gained in any way because this is something town and scum would do equally as likely in this case. I may be an obvious newbie to this game, but even I know a fruitless discussion if I see one, and this seems to be Exhibit A right here. This hurts me especially coming from Kohbee whom, before his blue claim, I viewed as a really intelligent player who got himself in a mess because he wanted to start Day 1 discussion and made the mistake of saying "I'm not talking to scum". Also I understand now why the newbie games have the reputation of being cursed with scum winning every game after the first one: These games get played by people who haven't yet properly learned how to react to an accusation by another player in a forum (I include myself in that list). The reason this is important is that the ensuing discussions take pages and pages of thread and bury actual signal (reads and analysis) under tons of noise (I understand that this is also a "noise" post, but it at least attempts to lower the overall noise level going into the futire. After that reminder about basic forum etiquette that I deemed necessary at this point, I want to restate that I have null reads on both the participants in this verbal battle, seeing as their arguments are based around
"Edit" before actually posting: Naturally, while I was occupied writing this up, a whole lot of posts has occurred where people have gotten more civilised altogether, making my wall of text less important. I will however still put this out there as a reminder for everyone to refer to if such a discussion starts up again (not very unlikely in my eyes). Also, response to a post from this timespan that seemed important to me: On April 03 2012 09:48 omnomMuffins wrote: Well crap, how smart would it be to claim cop in a game without a cop? That would be freaking brilliant! Keep in mind that a non-cop doesn't know whether a cop exists in the actual setup, so it's a 50-50 chance for him not to rightfully get counterclaimed. (Still worth doing if the alternative is getting lynched, but not as brilliant as when you know there's no cop in the game.) | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
I have however noticed that Solohan50 has continued to write very little since he was called out on lurking once and defending himself against it. The things he did write in that period consistently involve cases on Kohbee and nothing else. If one were to jump to conclusions, one could say that Solohan50 saw Kohbee's claim knowing he's not scum and wanted the lynch to stay on the blue target. On the other hand, it doesn't make as much sense for Solohan50 to have as strong a suspicion of Kohbee as it shows up in his filter. | ||
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On April 04 2012 06:11 Kohbee wrote: why include the part about him being flat out stupid if it has nothing to do with the definition of the term. You are back peddling, I read the entire post. Maybe he calls him flat out stupid because Albert actually plays flat out stupid? I don't know that player but seeing as he claims cop every game it's definitely a possibility? Kohbee, I don't like to repeat myself but you seemed rather intelligent at the start of the game, and ever since your claim that sense of intelligence I'm getting from you has started to decline, reaching a temporary low just now. If you want to be the new FourFace, so be it, but prepare to get lynched right here and now. Please do yourself and town a favor and prove to us that you can actually provide helpful content instead of pages of The Eternal Flame War Extended Edition. It might get you enough cred with the other players that they rethink their scum reads on you, but at the moment you certainly don't look particularly pro-town. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 04 2012 06:47 Kohbee wrote: So if omnom flips scum, will i still look less intelligent to you? The question here is if you get enough people to believe you. If he actually flips scum, I'll grant you that you called it, but right now I'm far from convinced that he will. At least he seems to understand that an extended discussion The same applies the other way around: If you die at some point (seems more probable at this point than omnomMuffins dying) and flip scum, then I'll strongly believe omnomMuffins to be town, because scumbuddies probably won't go to such lenghts as to fake a flame war between each other. Also, there is still the distinct possibility of you both being town, in which case the whole consideration is pretty moot anyway. If you keep prolonging this discussion any further without saying something truly new, I'm tempted to vote you even if you're the cop because your ability will be pretty useless when constantly roleblocked and you at this point really act as a liability to town. Enough of that. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 04 2012 08:53 Kohbee wrote: Who I would like to hear from KB - opinions on solohan, hiropro and marvel Now that's getting somewhere. Nice to see you actually putting some effort into coordinating people My opinions for you, sir: I honestly haven't thought all that much about HiroPro yet, but after some reading he sounds like someone who puts a good amount of quality control into his posts and only contributes if there is something sensible/new to say, which I at times missed among other participants of this game, but his self-limitation goes not too far into the luking direction, so there's definitely some town vibes in there. Also appreciates some of my posting, but that's no towntell but a personal matter On marvellosity I have a null read overall, the reason for this being that he doesn't behave like obvious scum (obvious scum being lurking, posting bad reads etc.) but not like obvious town either. If he happens to be scum, my gut instinct would suspect his buddy to be you, because he basically saved you in the Great Voting Craze™ by putting Therapist up one vote. This doesn't make him scum automatically though because I had basically exactly the same thought processes up to this point, believing Therapist to be one of the most scummy persons around. (And I'm a townie, right? )My view on Solohan50 has not changed since the last time I wrote about it. Reading his filter (which is easy, since it's the shortest of all) I found his case on you less than compelling to say the least (It centers on your vote cast in the very beginning of the game). Add to that the fact that he refused to take the vote off of you in the Great Voting Craze™ and it could well be that there's a scum member wanting to finish a blue somewhere in there. Either that, or he's a very zealous townie which could backfire in other lynch votes later on. The only case I'm really excluding from my considerations there is that you are both scum, because he could have easily changed his vote around during that mess and therefore made sure to get a townie with it. This was however worked out by FourFace before, I just now caught that while re-reading the thread. On April 02 2012 21:57 FourFace wrote: This means that you actually have a slight town read in my book, believe it or not. However, nothing is confirmed just yet and all my opinions are subject to change if someone objects in an eloquent and non-scummy manner.7-10 minutes before the lynch my brain worked out this genuinely true piece of information judging by the constellation of the votes: Kohbee&Solohan50 Kohbee&strongandbig Kohbee&Therapist .. can't possibly be THE scumpair. tl;dr: ##Vote: Solohan50 P.S. After finishing up this tremendous wall of text, I would invite omnomMuffins along to join our discussion as it finally has gotten the chance to get a little more civilised and the chance to get hit by randomly flying accusations has slightly lowered. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
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If you read his filter, you'll see:
strongandbig, I'll answer your question in due time (You'll see why, bear with me). Solohan50, I think you had enough chances to explain yourself and I'm now pretty set in my opinion. I am however listening to everything you say, if only to get more scum tells. But if you manage to get REALLY convincing (i.e. it's nigh on impossible) perhaps you can sway my vote tomorrow. | ||
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On April 05 2012 10:25 strongandbig wrote: If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter. You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move. The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him. ##Vote: Kohbee From solohan50: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following: - He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim). - One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched. - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia. Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide. Also, the two persons you mentioned were the people Kohbee kept on his personal scum list, if you remember that. Your gut feeling works quite like that of our detective, which I like. I definitely second your thoughts on who's mafia at this point. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
To preface the following epic wall of text, let me explain why I'm doing this. I believe scum wants to kill me tonight because I'm so high on everyone's list of town reads, so I'll get out every bit of information I can before the day post, because I have secret thoughts that I left unbeknownst to town for my own good. HOWEVER, if they're not killing me right now they will be after reading this so I'm saving myself by posting this when they probably have no time left to respond (if I would leave them time to respond I could as well have committed ##Suicide). I will be using the maximum amount of formatting available to me to get my point across in this post, because I have no reason to assume I'm going to live to explain myself any further. Also, if I live through this against all expectations, I think this post should confirm myself town because constructing a cover story that epic is an effort scum wouldn't be making at this point. I will also be using parentheses in the mathematical sense to group my logical statements together sometimes. + Show Spoiler [For strongandbig] + On April 05 2012 09:21 strongandbig wrote: This is the point where I'm explaining my town read on Kohbee that I promised earlier. It should also be immediately apparent why I was holding this back.I insist that Kohbee's play made no sense to me. However, it obviously made sense to other people, so maybe I'm wrong. Could be either way, and since he's not here to defend himself I'm gonna stop dissing on him. So without further ado, my claim: + Show Spoiler + I am the Jailkeeper. Things I did Night 1: I jail Kohbee. If Kohbee's claim is real: I protect him from any night kill scum might throw at him; the roleblock is unimportant because if scum don't kill him that night they roleblock him anyway. I knew of the very real possibility of scum targeting someone else, but at the time I deemed Kohbee the most probable target. If Kohbee's claim is fake: I have now a 50% chance of roleblocking the Goon meaning no kill happening that night UNLESS I get roleblocked too (basically a 1 in 6 chance because scum doesn't know where to shoot) and 50% chance of roleblocking the Roleblocker, in which case Xzibit comes in and throws his catch phrase around but nothing else really happens. + Show Spoiler [For the meme impaired] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/njaLg.png) Position after Night 1: FourFace died. Kohbee claims to be roleblocked. This means I have confirmation that the Goon had indeed succeeded in killing his victim that night. To me, that means that Kohbee is less likely scum because if he were scum that means there's 50% chance of him being the Goon and then an 83% chance of the roleblocker not targeting me correctly and my block actually succeeding, meaning that by pure probabilistic analysis Kohbee has 50%*83%=42% less chance of being mafia than anyone else, which is a slight town tell. (If you don't believe that, triple check your math and then tell me, I'm pretty sure of that calculation being correct) Knowing that Kohbee is 40% less probable to be scum than everyone else tells me to, I proceed to first make him stop his flame warring, then I concentrate on analysing Solohan50's behaviour which I do not feel the need of elaborating too much because I posted lengthily in the thread about it. Kohbee saying that he's roleblocked makes no difference, he had to say it. Kohbee needed to say it because he otherwise had to come up with some detective result, Kohbee needed to say it because he was actually most likely double roleblocked, once by mafia and once by me while protecting him. Night 2: This is where the fun part begins because I have no idea what the results of it will be: I am currently jailing Solohan50. So here I am repeating the math and logic from above, but with different repercussions than last time: If Solohan50 is scum: 50% that he is Roleblocker, 50% that he is Goon; of those 50% the Roleblocker has 3/4 or 75% chance of missing me and my roleblocking actually goes through, so overall 3/8 or 37,5% chance of me accomplishing something with my action. If I don't, nothing will happen and the kill will go through (most likely on me). If Solohan50 is town: My action does nothing and we are royally screwed because we can't distinguish that from the case that he is the Roleblocker / that he is the Goon and the Roleblocker got me. The night kill goes through and I am again most likely dead. Position after Night 2 (extrapolated): Possibility 1: Nobody gets killed. This is the best situation for us because we know for sure that Solohan50 is the goon (or scum choose to nokill, but that doesn't make any sense whatsoever for them) and we can lynch him assuming you are trusting my claim (I'm hoping you are). Possibility 2: I get killed. You have now absolute confirmation from my flip to trust what I have said about my role, reads and actions, so don't waste it; barring any other scumslips that might yet happen it's probably best to lynch Solohan50 in this situation. Possibility 3: Someone else than me gets killed. I don't deem this scenario particularly likely but I'm listing it here anyway. In this case, I'm open for Day 3 discussion (Maybe not in full swing because I'm celebrating easter with my family, but I'll manage to participate in the game nonetheless). My thoughts on other people HiroPro As I once said (+ Show Spoiler [another wall of text] + On April 04 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote: Now that's getting somewhere. Nice to see you actually putting some effort into coordinating people My opinions for you, sir: I honestly haven't thought all that much about HiroPro yet, but after some reading he sounds like someone who puts a good amount of quality control into his posts and only contributes if there is something sensible/new to say, which I at times missed among other participants of this game, but his self-limitation goes not too far into the luking direction, so there's definitely some town vibes in there. Also appreciates some of my posting, but that's no towntell but a personal matter On marvellosity I have a null read overall, the reason for this being that he doesn't behave like obvious scum (obvious scum being lurking, posting bad reads etc.) but not like obvious town either. If he happens to be scum, my gut instinct would suspect his buddy to be you, because he basically saved you in the Great Voting Craze™ by putting Therapist up one vote. This doesn't make him scum automatically though because I had basically exactly the same thought processes up to this point, believing Therapist to be one of the most scummy persons around. (And I'm a townie, right? )My view on Solohan50 has not changed since the last time I wrote about it. Reading his filter (which is easy, since it's the shortest of all) I found his case on you less than compelling to say the least (It centers on your vote cast in the very beginning of the game). Add to that the fact that he refused to take the vote off of you in the Great Voting Craze™ and it could well be that there's a scum member wanting to finish a blue somewhere in there. Either that, or he's a very zealous townie which could backfire in other lynch votes later on. The only case I'm really excluding from my considerations there is that you are both scum, because he could have easily changed his vote around during that mess and therefore made sure to get a townie with it. This was however worked out by FourFace before, I just now caught that while re-reading the thread. This means that you actually have a slight town read in my book, believe it or not. However, nothing is confirmed just yet and all my opinions are subject to change if someone objects in an eloquent and non-scummy manner. tl;dr: ##Vote: Solohan50 P.S. After finishing up this tremendous wall of text, I would invite omnomMuffins along to join our discussion as it finally has gotten the chance to get a little more civilised and the chance to get hit by randomly flying accusations has slightly lowered. strongandbig I never saw anything flawed within your argumentations, I have however sometimes disagreed with your priorities, e.g. lynching Kohbee on Day 2 over Solohan50. However, in that case you didn't have the information I had and it's completely understandable for me that you acted how you acted. Overall, quite town to me. omnomMuffins I never had an overly strong read on him, sometimes he didn't make as much sense as I would have hoped (the Eternal Flame Wars Extended Edition) but he did give an acceptable apology and getting upset on a forum isn't exactly what I would call scummy. Read evaluation: Town-ish. marvellosity My gut instinct was all over the place on him at different times. The only noteworthy "read" I'm getting is not from marvellosity's filter, but rather from Kohbee (+ Show Spoiler [here] + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: Sleep over, Deep breath, Logic time. Let’s go. Strong and Omnom I would like for both of you to reconsider your vote on me instead of Solohan50. Strong, I read your case on me and responded to it. I will reiterate some key points that I believe refute what you think are scum tells. Me telling therapist that I wouldn't talk to him was not me stifling discussion, I simply wanted Hiropro to answer for himself. Also, you act like I wanted a bandwagon on Hiropro but I never told anyone to vote for him or even asked others opinions on him. I presented a 1 sentence case based on his 2 sentences in the thread and waited for a response. Your second point basically boils down to you believing that a cop would not play the way I have. I don't know how many games of forum mafia you have played, but you will quickly find out that you can never depend on people to play as you would (in any role) and you can almost never depend on them to play "right". Omnom, your vote on me is (imo) mostly based off the "fight" we had in the thread for a few hours/days. I think we both got emotionally heated and ended up voting for one another based off this. I ask you to not make the same mistake twice (I call it a mistake because I know I am town) by voting for 2 townies based off you being mad at them for being assholes. I know that you think I am annoying and abrasive, tbh I don't care that you think that. I will answer any direct questions from now on but I will no longer post as I have previously as I don't need reactions anymore, I have found the scum team. However, if you vote for solohan, regardless of outcome it will completely shut me up. If he flips town, I will take responsibility, post my apologies, and take my impending lynch. When he flips scum, I will high five myself, then vote marvel tomorrow without any argumentation. I believe that you two and Hiropro and KB are our remaining town. If you do not see the logic in KB's and my own case against Solohan today I ask that you please believe me and him upon my flip. Solohan is scum. Marvel is scum. Omnom, I wanted to lynch you and I saw you townslip hard. This post+ Show Spoiler + On April 03 2012 09:47 omnomMuffins wrote: EBWOP: Wait, we don't have the confirmed set? I thought it was 2 mafia, one godfather, the other role blocker, and a cop and a medic? Time to read the OP more closely. Strong has been open with everything he has done. He doesn't seem to have any hidden motive and is more than willing to share his opinions. He does this is a genuine manner and there doesn't seem to be any hesitation or contradiction in his play. If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? Well thats pretty simple. Marvel's day 1 was bad (as he admitted) but he covered it by saving a blue to lynch a townie. The funny thing about Marvel's play is that he is literally never willing to accept responsibility for anything he does. Every decision he makes is laced with an out for him + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: EBWOP: I still think Therapist. is townie, but I think the chance he's mafia is a bit higher right now than Kohbee. On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. ##Vote: Kohbee In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. He also says that he has 2 scum reads, but only posts reads on me. + Show Spoiler + On April 03 2012 23:24 marvellosity wrote: At the moment, I have two possible scum reads, one expected, one perhaps not - but I'd like to start with Kohbee, the expected. He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. + Show Spoiler + If I don't see either Strong or Omnom respond to this I will repost on the next page and so on until they do On April 05 2012 10:25 strongandbig wrote: If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter. You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move. The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him. ##Vote: Kohbee From solohan50: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following: - He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim). - One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched. - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia. Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide. This post was written during the first four hours of Night 2, 2:30 AM to 5:30 AM local time. If you stayed with me through this, props to you. This is me done for the night and chances are that I'm also done for the game with this. If so, give 'em hell town! | ||
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YES YES I came to the conclusion much earlier in the obs QT/with my RL friend on IM But to see the same decision get made in the thread by strongandbig.., With great power comes great responsibility comes great indecision, and he mastered it. Congratulations. Also, like a great man once said: CombatEx wrote: EZ EZ EZ EZ EZ | ||
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Just post it here in the thread ^^ | ||
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marvellosity correctly realised this and beat strongandbig over the head with this argument repeatedly because it was the only viable reasoning he had to paint himself as town. But hey, whatever works, right? | ||
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On April 11 2012 10:32 Kohbee wrote: The fact that he knew that killing muffins would paint him town is your answer to why his argument is not logically sound at all. It is meaningless WIFOM But painting himself town after killing omnomMuffins is much harder to do than simply offing strongandbig and watching the other two accuse each other (I guarantee you that would have happened). That's my whole point. It's much easier in the position of scum!marvellosity to simply kill strongandbig than to even begin to consider a WIFOM case which might or might not work depending on strongandbig's though process. But I don't want to waste time here. As another wise man once said: On March 17 2012 11:09/March 22 2012 09:11 Grackaroni wrote: We're done here. (I apologise in advance for the bad and obscure reference, but I had to) | ||
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My initial thought upon seeing the kill of Night 2 in the daypost was "oh thank God they shot FourFace out of all the townies in this game". I can't tell you how hard it is to concentrate on anything productive at town if you are constantly facing that disruptive voice you can't possibly predict. It's hard to estimate how much town productivity was shot down the drain that day simply because of that fact. | ||
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On April 11 2012 10:52 Kohbee wrote: So if hiro had killed strongandbig, couldn't he have used the exact same argument of "IM NOT AN IDIOT THAT WOULD SHOOT STRONGANDBIG". Just because it worked this time doesn't make it a good or logical practice. I think at that point omnomMuffins would have likely not believed him anyway. HiroPro was the player faced with the worst choice of the three possible scum candidates at endgame. marvellosity could have killed off strongandbig and gotten away with it no problem, and strongandbig would have had the game won almost no matter what because everyone had him confirmed as town in their book. | ||
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On April 11 2012 11:04 marvellosity wrote: KB, Kohbee simply does not understand the reasoning above. The fact that you, the rest of town, and every other contributor in this thread understands it will not help him, I fear. OK I'm stopping it. If an explanation from VisceraEyes himself doesn't do the trick I don't know if I can do any better  Oh and by the way, hello VisceraEyes! I'm glad that veterans are taking the time to look at our newbie game and coach a little bit :D | ||
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