Death Factory Mafia 2
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On March 31 2012 05:52 MrZentor wrote: I'd prefer for the game to start as soon as possible. It would allow me to be much more active for a longer period of time. I agree. Hope to wake up with a role pm | ||
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I also have a policy for day 1: we have the opportunity of getting rid of all the lurkers in one fell swoop. The queue allows for 8 people to be lynched. I hope we don't need that many lynches, but being able to kill all our lurkers in d1 is pretty cool. | ||
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[QUOTE]On April 01 2012 15:34 Acrofales wrote: Wow, and I thought my previous mafia game derailed into madness fast. I have read through the last game and the voting didn't seem to work at all, so I don't know why anybody wants to try it. Tobon, are you scum?/QUOTE] Nope. And as you'll notice if you reread, I mentioned that the voting went nowhere. I wasn't suggesting it as a solution, but as a failed previous experience to start off discussion. Many of us are agreed that PoPs should be coordinated and not wasted. That's obvious and also quite vague. So how do you think we ought to go about concretely accomplishing it?[/QUOTE] I have no clue how to do that. The system seems designed to resist order and prior coordination. I think we should discuss who we want to kill in text and then work towards it. Same as with votes. Only difference is that you don't have a vote to make your case more forceful. If everybody is active and posting, however, that shouldn't be a problem. Don't need a vote trail, just vocal people. Hence, once again, my suggestion to lynch all lurkers off the bat. I have to go out today, but will be back this evening with more. Also, to grab items and prevent people from wasting pops, we should announce all pop actions 30 seconds before we use them. That's all the coordination I can see working. | ||
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MrZentor: I think you're basically right. Pushing (or actually pulling) Palmar (or anyone for that matter) is atm a high risk, low reward situation and we'd be stupid to do it. Atm the only reason to push someone right to the edge is because we want to lynch him. Therefore, anybody proposing to get the item is scum. Cascade, Nemesis, Palmar, Layabout and Mr.Wiggles: why are you pushing a scum agenda? | ||
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Additionally, he's wrong, because he didn't jump over Snarfs. He didn't even jump over VE. Here's starting positions: + Show Spoiler [starting positions] + 24.[Item] [___________] 23.[___________] [___________] 22.[___________] [___________] 21.[___________] [___________] 20.[___________] [___________] 19.[___________] [___________] 18.[Palmar] [___________] 17.[Mr.Wiggles] [___________] 16.[cascades] [Nemesis] 15. [Dirkzor] [Mr.Zentor] 14.[VisceraEyes][___________] 13.[Snarfs] [Bill Murray] 12.[wherebugsgo][prplhz] 11. [Acrofales][___________] 10.[Mattchew] [Tobon] 9. [layabout] [___________] 8. [Bluelightz][Sbrubbles] 7. [risk.nuke][syllogism] 6. [Cephiro][___________] 5. [___________][___________] 4. [___________][___________] 3. [___________] [___________] 2. [___________] [___________] 1. [___________] [___________] And after he claimed to have done his ability:+ Show Spoiler [after] + 24.[Item] [___________] 23.[___________] [___________] 22.[___________] [___________] 21.[___________] [___________] 20.[___________] [___________] 19.[___________] [___________] 18.[Palmar] [___________] 17.[Mr.Wiggles] [___________] 16.[cascades] [Nemesis] 15. [Dirkzor] [Mr.Zentor] 14.[VisceraEyes] [Bill Murray] 13.[Snarfs][___________] 12.[wherebugsgo][prplhz] 11. [Acrofales][___________] 10.[Mattchew] [Tobon] 9. [layabout] [___________] 8. [Bluelightz][Sbrubbles] 7. [risk.nuke][syllogism] 6. [Cephiro][___________] 5. [___________][___________] 4. [___________][___________] 3. [___________] [___________] 2. [___________] [___________] 1. [___________] [___________] He has moved 1 spot (being first or second in a queue slot makes no difference) and not jumped over anybody. So his claim is bullshit. He is either lying or completely misunderstanding his ability. In either case, I am in favour of teaching people to stop doing useless roleclaims on D1 and am therefore in favour of lynching BillMurray together with all the lurkers. For those twits who think a vote system will help, I will post: ##vote BillMurray | ||
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On April 02 2012 03:16 Mattchew wrote: Don't forget about me... i would like to see palmar get the item. if someone pushes him off (and he flips town) they sky rocket themselves to the top of my scumlist and should just be killed anyway. My question is why are people so afraid of giving palmar an extra power You're confirmed scum in my book anyway after last game, but sure. Add your name to the list | ||
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On April 02 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote: because a. because if he's town he has a greater chance of using the power well then almost anyone else in the game b. he's already closest which means he will tie up the fewest PoPs c. It will be a great help creating a read on him If he's town, mafia is either going to make sure they have a way of killing him, or they're not going to contribute at all (or as little as possible), thereby keeping all their pops for the actual lynch, increasing the chance of a townie getting lynched. He's closest, but still eats up 6 pulls and 4 pushes to get him in there and out safely (well 5 pulls now that cascade has used his) How is giving someone who is not confirmed anything an item going to help us get a read on him? Here's from the OP: Only the player that landed on that item position will know what item they recieved. So how does this help anybody? | ||
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Here you say: On April 02 2012 01:34 layabout wrote: Getting the item: Going after the item would tie up a lot of the PoP's. Whilst there is a danger to the person being sent to get the item, anybody that pushed them over would likely be killed for doing so and so it would offer a 1:1 trade which would be good for town. If scum happen to have a hidden PoP then we risk losing the item, a townie and the PoP's for no gain. This seemed to me pro-item-getting. In your follow-up you amended that. Fine, take yourself off the list, although I don't much like wishy washy behaviour. | ||
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On April 02 2012 03:42 Bill Murray wrote: I'd also like to note I jumped TOWARDS the fire why would mafia do that? /wifom I considered latching onto Tobon, but that would have meant it'd check like 5 people, and I didn't want to risk there not being 20% likely scum (1/4 are scum, so 5 would be dumb) 2 seemed pretty safe, and lo and behold, I was right we have 3 clear town in my eyes Okay, it makes more sense now. In my eyes we have still cleared 0 town as I have no reason to believe you at this point. But I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. For those keeping track: ##unvote | ||
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On April 02 2012 03:55 layabout wrote: Maybe you can explain why you think my behaviour is "wishy washy" and why that is relevant. How is what i have written "pro item getting"? Somebody (bugs?) mentioned that it would be easy for scum to kill the person going after the item. I have written that if they do that they would either face a 1:1 trade or a free kill (if they have a hidden PoP like in Death factory). I also wrote that getting the item woud require a lot of PoP's. Please point out where the pro item getting part is. I read that as in favour of getting the item, because a 1:1 trade is (usually) a town win (because more town than scum). It seemed to have the hidden mafia ability tagged on as an afterthought. But why are you so uptight about it? You seem extremely eager to be taken off my scumlist. I was told last game (repeatedly) that overly defensive behaviour is a scum tell. Are you scum? | ||
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On April 02 2012 04:25 Nemesis wrote: This is retarded. Defensive behaviour is not a scum tell. Just take a look at chaoser in the first Death Factory Mafia. Both town and scum of course don't want to get lynched, so people will get defensive no matter what their role is. Heh, I thought the same as you last game, but I caught enough flak over my defensive response for most of D1 and a DT checked me out. Turned out I was really scum, so there might be something in it after all. I'm willing to give it a go this game. Afaik the psychological reasoning behind it is something like: scum know they're guilty and are thus more insecure when called out on it: they will therefore get overly defensive, whereas townies are more secure in their safety and will be more rational. There's a difference between giving a reasoned response about why an attack is groundless and an emotional defense. I see more of the latter than the former in Layabout's defense here: he seems rather anxious to not be called scum. | ||
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On April 02 2012 05:15 layabout wrote: Seeing as you are basing this off of the last game that you played played i suggest you go back to that game and see what happened on day1. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14041960 Then apologise to me. Then admit that defensive behaviour is not a scum tell. So your defense is a non-sequitur that you're innocent because you were lynched on D1 last game? Huh? How has this got anything to do with the topic at hand? Last game I actually thought town was rather insane for lynching you, but who was I to complain about town lynching one of their own? I used the situation last game to clarify why overly defensive play is a scumtell, no more, no less. Are you trying to play onto my sympathies by referring to your D1 lynch? Why bring it up at all? /confused. | ||
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On April 02 2012 06:00 layabout wrote: You originally called me scummy for saying that we should grab the item. This was false and i pointed that out. You then called me wishy washy and pointed at the post that led you to infer that i wanted us to grab the item. I pointed out that there was nothing in that post to lead you to infer that. I further asked you why you then decided to call me "wishy washy" and to explain how i was being "wishy washy". You then do not explain yourself but instead you call me scummy for being overly defensive. My response to this was to think "man this guy is an idiot". You then make this post in which you explain that you were overly defensive as scum in your last game and try to use that to justify calling me scum. I responded by pointing out that in that same game i was lynched day1. I was hoping that you would realise that since i was lynched by 5/21 players for no good reason and flipped town that i might want to avoid that happening again and that, that might be why i am being defensive. I was also hoping that you would realise that "scumtells" are pretty much complete garbage, and that somebody being defensive is an appalling basis for a scum read. I realise now that i expected to much of you. And now you made sense. See, that's all I really wanted from you. If, instead of making assumptions that everybody else thinks exactly the same way you do, but instead explain what conclusions you're jumping to, we can communicate just fine! | ||
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On April 02 2012 07:18 VisceraEyes wrote: I might be like...italics/bold on people who have pushed and strikethrough people who have pulled or whatever. Looked at it from that perspective, people who are pulling Palmar to get the item still have a vote to kill at the end of the day (pushes). The only votes we'd be losing are people "pushing" Palmar to get him back to safety. Suddenly I like the idea of giving Palmar power to see what he does with it. Especially since I can still contribute to the lynch. ##pull: Palmar Lol. This plan sounds well thought out: you get Palmar into the death zone... and then just leave him there to rot, because saving him is someone else's job. Glad you thought this through. Anyway, I'm going to bed. See you all tomorrow. | ||
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On April 02 2012 14:54 Tobon wrote: I agree with all this. I'm not liking Cascades' post and pull either. However, pushing him is still a bad idea right now. Because of the two-toys-fill-a-row bumping mechanic, the more spread out we toys get the more pushes it takes to get anyone into the fire zone. The worst thing we can do as good toys is to end up almost killing several suspects instead of making sure to get one or two. As long as we're talking about queue mechanics, I'll make explicit something I've just been hinting at as well: we have no control over Palmar. Anyone thinking "we let him get the item and then if he acts scummy we just don't push him back out of the fire" isn't considering that he can happily hang out in the fire zone and just flip the queue if it seems like he might end the day there. That having been said, though, we can take advantage of that situation by leaving Palmar exactly where he is. Our two biggest lurkers, risk.nuke and Sbrubbles probably figure they are safe because they are near the bottom, Blue is hard to lynch because he's down there too. If we _pull_ (1) Blue, (2) Blue, (3) Sbrubbles, (4) risk, (5) Blue, and then let Palmar swap ends then we get all three of what look like the scummiest so far with only 5 pulls. If Palmar is town, he'll agree to the plan, and if he's scum he'd have to sacrifice himself by not using his power and dying in order to save those 3, which he wouldn't do unless 1 or more of them are also scum, so we'd end up killing one scum and identifying more. Hey Tobon, your entire post sounds like scum to me. You are proposing to get Palmar to the item and leaving him there, giving him as only escape a power we don't even know he has. That is absolutely ridiculously retarded. Congratz for now topping my scumometer! | ||
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That is: VisceralEyes, Mattchew, BillMurray, cascades and Palmar himself. However, now that he's up there, we should probably make the best of a bad (did I say bad? I meant horrible terrible stupid) situation. I need 3 volunteers to join me in pushing him back down out of the danger zone, and one someone to pull him up the last rung. | ||
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On April 02 2012 17:20 Palmar wrote: how does this kid know my role? You claiming the queue switch ability? | ||
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On April 02 2012 17:28 Palmar wrote: you need to prove yourself smart before you call people stupid. You just proved that you had a backup plan for being in the fire, which makes your cooperation at least somewhat understandable. Still risky, but less so now. Everybody else just went for it, based on the assumption that mafia does not have some nasty ability to push you off the queue and someone (else) would push you back out of the fire zone. I don't have to be smart to recognise stupid. Of course, I am, in fact, incredibly stupendously smart. Btw, I still don't think it's a good idea, but I have to admit, It's a better idea now than it was before you claimed. | ||
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To clarify, with bad play I particularly mean: untrustworthy roleclaims, preposterous plans based on unwarranted assumptions and lynch cases that make no logical sense at all. | ||
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On the other hand, we find ourselves in the awkward situation where the only person to have any benefit from the queue switch is currently Palmar. However, if we push more people up than we waste our votes. I therefore think we should plan for both occasions: start using pushes to get BillMurray and Tobon to the top (they're nearer the top than the bottom) and use pulls to get Bluelightz to the bottom (other than bluelightz I have no clear scumreads at the bottom. Risk.nuke might be worth it, he has made 0 posts so far). That way we lynch scum regardless of whether Palmar switches the queue or not. | ||
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On April 03 2012 02:51 Snarfs wrote: I agree that the Palmar situation needs to be dealt with and sometime before he needs to disappear being in a European time zone. ##Pull Palmar Whoever does the last pull needs to make sure that they make it clear that they're going to pull well before they make the pull so that we don't risk two people pulling at the same time and "accidentally" killing Palmar. Ideally we have two people, one who can pull and one who can push for safety. Also, refresh the actions in a new window before pulling. No excusing any "accidents" here. Also, with risk claiming it isn't his ability, it's quite frustrating to see that Tobon wasted his push as well (though by chance it did verify some weird behaviour around Acro/Nemesis). This is the kind of PoP that I was trying to set a precedent for punishing by pushing cascades. And then, 8 pages later, you come in and just throw away your pull. Derp much? On April 03 2012 06:19 wherebugsgo wrote: I'll do it. ##pull Palmar | ||
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Something strange is going on here. | ||
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On April 03 2012 06:37 wherebugsgo wrote: Received confirmation that my pull failed. Palmar is telling the truth. What are you talking about? How was that a waste? That pull was the single most significant action anyone could have made today. It confirmed that Palmar was telling the truth, and had it worked, it would certainly meant a dead scum Palmar. Now it's far more likely that Palmar is town. Also, I still have my pull, so yes VE, I will help save you. Yeah, I derped. See my previous post. I also have to go to bed pretty soon and there's no point on using my pull on VE before someone pushes him... | ||
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I looked if there's anything to spend my pull on and I don't see anything, so unless I can give my pull to someone else to help get VE back down I'll just ##wait | ||
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On April 03 2012 07:16 Cephiro wrote: Well, in the meanwhile as we wait for one more VE-push to appear, what do you think about the possible pull-lynch? Syllo or sbrubbles? I don't really like the play of either, it's hard to say from sbrubbles since he hasn't posted almost anything, and hasn't responded to my questions yet either. I don't really get a very towny-vibe from syllo though, and since I am fairly sure that risk's claim is true, I know that one, or even both of them are Evil. Opinions? No. I disagree with both lynches atm. The case on Syllo seems to be just meta and I don't know him long enough to say anything. In GoT mafia he was disinterested and played a similar style, but he was town there (of course, he was a hydra with Sandroba, so not a very good read). The case for Sbrubbles was that he's a lurker and hasn't done anything useful. He seems to be back and posting more actively. I don't like Cephiro's tone, but that's not enough to lynch him over yet. If risk's claim is true then one of syllo, sbrubbles and cephiro is scum, but atm I don't know enough to decide. I am also unsure of believing risk atm, so I'd rather wait than mislynch. G'night. PS. At the top of the queue I have clearer reads, but I already used my push. | ||
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I will read through the pages of new posts and post my ideas later. For now, there's one thing I don't understand: if Palmar was ponied by VE and mobsters got some secret move to kill VE, how did Palmar not only live, bu move backwards? Not complaining, just confused. @palmar: VE got hmself killed for you. You'd better be worth a wasted D1. Final thoughts: VE flipping green probably means BM's roleclaim is true. | ||
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On April 03 2012 16:03 Acrofales wrote: Good morning. Glad to see the rescue operation worked. At least this town can coordinate when it really tries. I will read through the pages of new posts and post my ideas later. For now, there's one thing I don't understand: if Palmar was ponied by VE and mobsters got some secret move to kill VE, how did Palmar not only live, bu move backwards? Not complaining, just confused. @palmar: VE got hmself killed for you. You'd better be worth a wasted D1. Final thoughts: VE flipping green probably means BM's roleclaim is true. Okay, I missed the message that VE dropped Palmar, so then it makes sense that he was moved alone. He also didn't move backwards... remembering the queue properly is confusing me :S Other than that, I would like to chip in on the whole risk.nuke, syllo, sbrubbles and cephiro quartet. I am inclined to believe risk.nuke, because he has evidence in the form of Ace's red lightbul thingy. That means he has some role that makes Ace post a red lightbulb. There might still be issues with sanity, but if we assume risk.nuke's check works the way he says it does, then one or more of syllo, sbrubbles and cephiro are scum. So here are my thoughts: Cephiro Seems very paranoid in much of his posting. Excessively afraid of Palmar getting the item: On April 03 2012 02:56 Cephiro wrote: Sigh. What is it with you people being so insanely obsessed with Palmar getting that item? Are you just living in a fairytale where everything that happens is the best case scenario, Palmar is innocent as a bird, gets a dayvig item, shoots a scum and everyone is happy? It seems to me that certain suggestions are going through way too easily. >_> Also, I will threaten to push Palmar over the edge if someone pushes him to the item. I do not trust him at all currently, and if he doesn't even bother responding to me, I'm fine by killing him. Now, I wasn't in favour of getting the item either, but mainly because of the risks involved, not over some trumped up fear of Palmar abusing the item. If Palmar were scum (and I'm not going to get into wifom about why he was roleblocked up there), then either he would be forced to use the item in a townie way, or he would be confirmed scum and get lynched the next day. I fail to see the problem of giving a, probably harmless, item to Palmar this early in the game. So this paranoid behaviour seems scummy to me: scum have a good reason for not wanting a townie to get the item. He was called out on this behaviour by Sbrubbles and his response was: On April 03 2012 08:55 Cephiro wrote: As I admit earlier, I may have come out slightly too aggressive-looking, but at that point I was convinced there should be absolutely no reason why I should let Palmar get the item, and he looked very scummy to me. He is by no means confirmed town to me after his frozed-ness, but at the moment I believe that it is for the best of town to get him rescued out of there. Maybe he'll even start contributing something. This does not convince me. He was not "slightly too aggressive-looking", he repeatedly threatened to push Palmar off the edge if he got to the item, which is way beyond "slightly too aggresive-looking", regardless of how scummy Palmar looked to him. I also don't see a proper explanation of why Palmar looked scummy anywhere in his filter. I agree with the second part: Palmar is by no means confirmed town, but more on that below. Another thing I don't like about his play is his insistence that he's town. Mafia or town, any player will always insist on being town, so the only reason to bring it up is to pad your filter in the hope that repetition makes it believable. However, everything else in his filter reads townie to me and the two points above are not strong enough scumtells to make me sure he's scum. Syllo The case against him seems to revolve around three things: 1. He's not playing town the way he normally plays town 2. He thinks BM is scum based on speculation about his roleclaim 3. He threw away his PoPs early, despite pushing for the voting system and saying people should be careful with their pops. Of these, only the third really stands out to me as a scumtell. I have not played with Syllo enough to say anything much about his meta. I also thought (and with WBG pointing out that VE flipping green proves nothing, still think) BM's roleclaim was dodgy. The ability seems strange, I see no reason to roleclaim it when he did, and generally I don't understand what BM was trying to accomplish with it. However, the third point stands out as scummy. We have Syllo posting: On April 02 2012 01:50 syllogism wrote: The problem with free for all PoPing is that once someone throws down their vote, they can't get it back. If that is allowed, scum can throw away their vote while hasty townies can waste theirs. If we later reach a consensus on "lynching" someone, the votes may not be there and we'll gain less information as some people may have already used "their votes". and then half a day later uses his PoPs in exactly the way he says should NOT happen. His explanation makes sense, but could equally well be scum covering his ass for doing something scummy: On April 03 2012 14:58 syllogism wrote: Because I had only little time and no one was actually willing to discuss who they would be willing to push? Only VE answered my inquiries, while the others were just talking about irrelevant things. As I pointed out very early, the "lynch" deadline is about 7+ hours too late for me. All in all, just as Cephiro, there is not enough here to say whether he's scum or not. Sbrubbles Ahhh, the shortest filter of all. He hopped in at a very convenient time: about 6 hours before the deadline and just as people were starting to get very suspicious of him. On April 03 2012 06:39 Sbrubbles wrote: Ta-da-da-da! Sbrubbles is here to save the day! Or something! ##push visceraeyes Now seriously, I just got off from work, this weekend was crazy, I couldn't post at all and blah-blah-blah-no-one-cares. I'm still sorry, though . Uh huh. Right. And why should we believe you? I think you were lurking there all the time, and rather than saving the day, you hopped in to save your own ass. But that is all speculation that I cannot prove. Still, I really dislike this post. It continues on with some crazy speculation about how Palmar and VE are both scum and in cahoots to gain town trust: very strange and incredibly useless. His other 2 posts are a LOT better. He basically makes the case against Syllo, and voices his suspicions of Bluelightz and Cascades. Taken by itself, I would also say there is not enough evidence to say that Sbrubbles is scum. However, if we take into account that his case against Syllo was made AFTER risk.nuke posted his info, a scum Sbrubbles MUST cast suspicion onto either Cephiro or Syllo. The case for Syllo was almost made already, and given that he's also in Europe, was conveniently offline with no chance to defend himself. So out of the three suspects, I think Sbrubbles is the most scummy and will push for a lynch on him tomorrow. | ||
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On April 03 2012 19:59 Bluelightz wrote: Just clarifying my role but I DO NOT KNOW WHICH SPOT IS BOOBY TRAPPED OUT OF THE 3 BUT I KNOW 1 OF THE SPOTS THAT WILL BE PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED IS SAFE. I still can't see any way of this being a town ability. Can you please explain the ability a bit better, because I cannot possibly see any way this would benefit town. Insofar as I understand your explanation: You choose (?) 3 positions in the queue and a bomb is placed in one of them. You know that ONE of these is safe (which is publicly announced). Firstly I'm not sure I even believe your claim: this is a strangely convoluted power: if one of them is guaranteed safe, then why not just select 2 positions randomly (I know, probabilities work out slightly differently, but not enough to matter). Secondly, the queue is randomized at the start of the day, so there's a good chance someone will start on the boobytrap and explode due to random. Because there's more town than scum, the chance this happens to town is greater than that it happens to scum. Now, assuming that doesn't happen, you then disclose the possible positions of your bombs and we start moving scummy players there. However, from D1 we know that scum has some kind of hidden move thingy. So all in all, your power has far more risk than reward for town. However, I cannot fathom why you would roleclaim such a power as scum, except to create confusion. Is that it? Are you just trying to confuse the shit out of people? | ||
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On April 04 2012 00:12 Sbrubbles wrote: I'm dissapointed Syllo wasn't incinerated. I have a scum read on him, but as long as you believe risk, he is a good lynch candidate even if your read is null. Lets consider him null, for argument's sake. By lynching him we would have: 1) 1/3 chance of nailing scum 2) Better idea of Ceph's and my own alignment 3) More PoPs the next day, given that less PoP's would be devoted to figuring out which one of us is/are scum So, that tells me that those who ended the day without using their pulls (Bluelightz, Zenthor, Acro and Palmar) either: 1) Have a solid town read on him 2) Weren't around at the deadline and chose wilfully to end the day without using their Pulls 3) Are scum and don't want to lynch their buddy Syllo As I said, I have a scum read on Syllo, but I can see someone interpreting him as null. That said, I don't believe anyone here has a solid town read on him. So, tell me guys, which one is it? I believe I made that perfectly clear. I had no scum read on any of you when I went to bed. This morning when I got up I looked at all your posts, and if one of you 3 is scum, I believe it's you. You're going to have to come up with something better than an OMGUS to convince me otherwise. | ||
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On April 04 2012 03:02 Tobon wrote: Oh, and this part. My read on cascades is here: link. In short: scummy. The bit you quoted is me saying that the timing of the PoP on cascades was poor because we hadn't decided for sure on a target yet. As many of us are agreeing now, a lot of us (me definitely included) used our PoPs poorly and in an uncoordinated way on day 1. Hopefully we can do better from here on out. I'm not so sure. I said earlier that I could not come up with a decent reason for scum to claim such an obviously scummy role, but this post brings one to mind: you're stating that it's so absurd that he must be town. Lets entertain a thought: he's scum and is roleclaiming. a. It's a true roleclaim. He now comes off looking honest (albeit naive) and promises to use his bombs for the good of the town. We now trust him, because he doesn't use his bombs and plays for the end-game when he places them, maybe even convincing town that it is now a good move, because the statistics have changed (more chance of hitting mafia) b. It's a false roleclaim. We threaten to lynch him if he uses his bombs, because they are horribly anti-town (or if we don't threaten he admits it's anti-town to use them and promises not to). If he has some hidden role, he can now safely use his hidden role while claiming that he is not using his ability (bombs) for the good of the town. Given that almost all the roles seen so far in this game have a verifiable effect (the exception seems to be BillMurray's strange DT claim), it is a lot easier to roleclaim something that is either real, or you don't want to use. Some added wifom based on DFM1 roles: Welcome to Death Factory Mafia! You are the explosive Blaster Mine Toy! You are a Good Toy. Usually sold to children as a glorified fire cracker you ended up stuck in the factory with some bad, bad toys. But you refuse to be a sitting duck. Using your blaster charges you can destroy actual spaces on the queue. You have 2 charges and may use them in one of 2 ways: 1.) You can place a primer under a single queue at night. At the end of the day any toy in that position of the queue will be blown up or 2.) You can place both of your charges under the queue position and the first Toy to encounter it will be blown up. Be careful as if you do this, when the day starts it will immediately blow up anyone starting on that queue which could be you! You win by eliminating all of the Bad Toys. This was a role in DFM1: almost the same as the role Bluelightz is claiming, but no randomness. The lack of random makes it a lot more townie imho. Now, other than this roleclaim, what in Bluelightz filter makes you lean towards town? Because if we accept that the roleclaim says very little about his alignment, I am left with the same nonsense in his filter as I saw yesterday. On April 01 2012 13:50 Bluelightz wrote: Snarfs, wbg, wiggles, tobon are town. any questions? Yes, actually. Why do you think this: On April 01 2012 15:18 Bluelightz wrote: I haven't helped discussion and didn't explain my reads. I think the people I mentioned are town because they didn't seem to act like they are discussing stuff in a qt blah blah.I agree that we should coordinate our PoPs. So, 8 posts into the game, you claim you can sniff out QT coordination? Trolololol. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the entire content of bluelightz filter if we ignore the QQ about his wifi and the repeated obtuse explanations of his role. So yeah, Bluelightz is pretty high on my scumometer (although current priorities should be on Syllo/Cephiro/Sbrubbles) | ||
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On April 04 2012 03:01 prplhz wrote: I really doubt that Bluelightz is scum. I didn't think so before the claim and his outbursts in face of the scrutiny he was under during his absence seem genuine and townlike. Furthermore, that claim doesn't do him any good since he's claiming a scum role, the only thing the claim actually does is make sure that he can never use his power without getting lynched so the claim makes little sense from scum perspective. I just can't get over why Ace and Kurumi would give a scum role to a townie but as long as it isn't overpowered then I don't care. | ||
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Leading the scumomenter are Sbrubbles and Bluelightz, for reasons posted earlier. Suspicions: I still don't like BillMurray's roleclaim.. and his filter is completely void of any content, except for the roleclaim and this: On April 02 2012 11:06 Bill Murray wrote: I disagree with this He has confirmed his role What more can you do as town? That's why I'm willing to die for my claim. HOW IS THIS TOWNIE? What you can do as town is hunt scum! I am also suspicious of Mattchew, who has so far been rather quiet. I know this is a meta-argument and I only have one game to go on, but in GoT mafia he was very loud and obnoxious (and I pushed hard to get him killed). Now his filter is almost empty and he seems to have no opinion of his own. Mattchew, I would like to hear what your reads are. Top 3 scum and top 3 town NOW. GO! Finally MrZentor, Layabout and risk.nuke are on my scumometer because they have no actions at all on D1. Palmar also did no actions, but he's confirmed to have been nullified. Of the three I mentioned, risk.nuke said his ability eats a PoP and layabout says he can't PoP at all. Lets say I believe that, that leaves MrZentor, who went awol during 3/4 of D1. That makes me suspicious. People I have my eye on: Syllo and Cephiro for obvious reasons. Palmar: probably town, but so far without benefits. Most of D1 pops wasted on not quite getting him to the item and leaving VE open for a mob hit in the process. Tobon: extremely useless posts. Town reads: WBG (actively scumhunting, good reads), risk.nuke (mainly due to his roleclaim with Ace's red light confirming) | ||
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Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz). | ||
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If he's scum and we send him up there he gets: 1. An item 2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late. If he's town and we send him up there we get: 1. An item 2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed. While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high. | ||
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I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that? I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow. I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them. He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this? You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread. On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan: On April 04 2012 14:24 Cephiro wrote: If I provide my full role and plan, then it is very likely to backfire. However, if we have enough townies to co-ordinate to do it swiftly, then I will do that if that's an absolute must. It's for the best of town if I do not, and I would claim right after. Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all. Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious: On April 04 2012 13:41 Cephiro wrote: Also, what do you others think about the nullify abillity? I have my reasons to believe it is very limited, at most 2-shot, most likely oneshot. If anyone can tell something about queue positions, you should come forth with the information as well, as I cannot see town getting hurt more than having a benefit of it. Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip? He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me. On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter. My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here. | ||
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On April 04 2012 08:17 Tobon wrote: You don't know how hard it is to resist replying to that with something extremely useless! So there, that part is extremely useless, now let's move on. How do you square Sbrubbles being number one on your scumometer now, with this post: ... especially since Sbrubbles has posted even more actively after you wrote that? Heh, just found this gem. You really excell at making useless posts... I'm starting to agree more and more with the people who want to off you, but there are other priorities for the moment. I might as well respond: I guess my suspicion of Sbrubbles was wrong, but yes, if you had taken the time to read the post I made about Sbrubbles, you would see why I found his later posts rather scummy. Instead you just decided to answer without reading. I was wrong about him benig scum, he was just not much help to anybody. His case against Syllo came at a time when it was a 3-way suspicionfest between Sbrubbles, Syllo and Cephiro, so nothing anything any of them said about each other was going to be worth trusting. Other than that my suspcion of Sbrubbles over Syllo was based mainly on the fact that Syllo dealt well with the case against him and neither had contributed much of anything to the thread, so Sbrubbles seemed scummier. Syllo has now jumped up on my scumometer with Sbrubbles flipping green, but so has Cephiro (quite far and fast, I might mention. His plan and defense of it just reek of scumstink): I am now in favour of lynching both and getting at the very least a 1:1 trade out of it, and possibly more. | ||
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On April 04 2012 19:50 Bluelightz wrote: Owww crap, the POTENTIALLY booby trapped positions are 2 and 24. Okay... given the role of darkness in DFM1, why the FUCK would you say this? This makes no sense for scum OR town. If you're scum, then you can say this to your darkness casting buddy in scumQT. The only reason to say this in the thread is so that town thinks you're helping them by saying something that is entirely useless to us. If you're town, you just gave scum information they didn't have, which means you're incredibly stupid. Given my policy that bad town play is almost always beneficial to scum I think we should definitely attempt to lynch three people today: bluelightz, cephiro and syllo. I doubt we have enough pulls to get all three of them off the bottom, one of them will have to go into the fire. The only way we have of knowing someone is in the fire is if the item is picked up, which means we have to risk scum picking up the item, or having town go there first and then pushing a scum off the top edge afterwards. | ||
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On April 04 2012 20:14 Bluelightz wrote: Me giving information to scum = Scum? Maybe your the one that's incredibly stupid...... In addition to being like 90% certainly scum, you have a problem reading conditionals? I state both possible cases. You're either scum, or a townie who might as well be scum for all the help you're giving them. Brb, I'm grabbing my pitchfork (although a torch would be more appropriate, given the circumstances). While I'm at it, if you are serious about the positions of your bombs, might I point out that position 24 is a COMPLETELY USELESS place to put a bomb, regardless of alignment? Anybody who is on position 24 at the end of the day gets incinerated. All you achieve is that now they (maybe) get blown up, in addition to getting incinerated. Whoop-de-doop. Didn't you say your ability was intended to cost us LESS PoPs to kill people? | ||
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On April 04 2012 22:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Has anybody claimed the kill on Palmar or Shrubbles yet? This is important to me. If you shot one of Palmar/Shrubbles, and haven't claimed yet, please do so. I won't be mad. I promise. Hi guys, I'm mafia fishing for a vigilante so I can shoot him tonight, but I won't be mad. I promise!!! | ||
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What I thought Bluelightz' ability did was to let him choose 3 places, of which 1 was boobytrapped. He was told of 1 of the positions that was safe, leaving 2 possibly boobytrapped. I didn't understand it, but thought it might have something to do with the probabilities shifting if 3 spots are randomly chosen and one is guaranteed not to have a bomb. I was also wrong on that account as the Monty Hall problem is completely irrelevant for this. I therefore apologize to Bluelightz and people should interpret my post as double facepalming myself. That said, this only refers to the second part of my last post about Bluelightz' ability. His revealing the positions is still extremely scum-flavoured as in the darkness it is definitely not benefiting anybody in town, but could maybe benefit whoever cast the darkness ability. | ||
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On April 05 2012 01:18 Cephiro wrote: Going to filter quotes to try and reduce the wall of text that is going to happen. My 5 scumreads: syllogism, prplhz, cascades, Acrofales, Mattchew + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 16:35 Acrofales wrote: Good morning. Had a quick glance through the thread and I am quite opposed to Cephiro's plan. I just don't trust the guy. If we believe risk.nuke's claim (and I still do) that means either Cephiro or Syllo is scum. Atm I'm leaning slightly to Syllo, but just plain statistics say we shouldn't bet on Cephiro. Pretty much everybody else has better chances of not being scum, so until Syllo is dead and confirmed red, I am not cooperating with anything Cephiro proposes. Gonna read the rest of the thread now. I understand it's dark (and full of terrors). I can obviously get behind the bluelightz pulling. I have to get to work, but when I get there I'll read the thread more carefully and decide what to do (probably pull bluelightz). God you are flip-flopping fast. Do you want to know why I find this hilarious? Out of everyone in the game, only the ones that are in the 5 people i suspect to be scum have gone out and made a case on me. Are you actually that afraid of me, or are you trying to make me look bad by trying to make me look like I'm just OMGUSing? Actually, you ARE OMGUSing. No town can have a reasonable doubt that you're town without being confirmed scum? How the hell does your logic work? I completely admit to switching my read on you 180º, but it has two clear reasons. The first is that I thought you were town, because I thought Sbrubbles was scum. Now that he's confirmed town, that leaves you and Syllo as scumspects. Taking filters up until your crazy plan into account, I think Syllo is slightly more likely than you to be scum, but in comes reason two: your hairbrained plan, in which you refuse to explain the benefits. Let me put it this way: after all your intimations about a town-aligned masterplan and assuming you are town, if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering). Your paranoia against explaining more than "Syllo will die" and "it's good for town" made me, and is continuing to make me suspcious of your motives. So, in closing, I don't really know which of you two is scum and I would rather not go along with a possible scumscheme, as it is almost certainly not to town's advantage. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 16:53 Acrofales wrote: Let me phrase that a bit better: we have to take into account the very real possibility that Cephiro is scum. If he's scum and we send him up there he gets: 1. An item 2. To activate whatever dastardly ability he has that requires him to be in the incineration zone (if I let my imagination run wild I can think of quite a few rather nasty ones, such as increase the size of the incineration zone). Because it's dark, we won't even know what he's doing until it's too late. If he's town and we send him up there we get: 1. An item 2. To fulfill his masterplan of which we do not even know the rewards. Cephiro said that it helps town and probably gets Syllo killed. While I like the town rewards and could probably get behind a Syllo kill, the rewards for scum are unknown, but probably better. Given the, lets say 40% chance that Cephiro is scum, the risk is just way too high. As said earlier, my plan is way in favour of town. The worst case scenario for town is that I die before we get to use the item, and my death will confirm syllo as scum, so 1:1 trade. Best case scenario, I survive and deliver you 2 scum kills. Or are you actually proposing that after seeing a nullify ability & darkness ability, that I could be some some sort of godlike superscum and get half the town killed by going into the incineration zone? A sacrifical mechanic would be far more likely than that. Is it so unlikely that scum has a power to... say... increase the size of the incineration zone by 3 positions? Especially if it's conditioned on getting into the fire? Given the darkness we have no clue how far we are from the incineration zone, but I'm sure that would get quite a few townies burned to a crisp. That is the worst somewhat balanced power I can think of, but Ace has more experience and could've thought up any number of strange powers. As I stated in the quick post, your best and worst case are preconditioned upon YOU BEING TOWN, which is an assumption I am unwilling to make until Syllo is dead. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 16:56 Acrofales wrote: So, Cephiro: will your plan have any other benefits than killing Syllo (which we really don't need your masterplan for) and getting you the item (which I don't really want to do at this point)? Read what I said, I did actually bring this up earlier as well but you clearly chose to ignore it. All i find in your filter is that it has town benefits and Syllo will die. Which is about as weak as an assurance can get. Thanks for nothing. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 19:09 Dirkzor wrote: I think Cephiro's plan suck. Any plan we made yesterday was fucked and it will be the same today. (and the item is not even in the equation as the item suck. Its like a shiny objects that people really can't wait to dig up but it always turn out just be the opener from a soda can.) I would like people to push Syllo. The fact that scum killed Palmar/Sbrubbles (or one of them) and not syllo is disturbing. Palmar had done shit all so killing him over Syllo makes no sense. I'm assuming Sbrubbles was a town hit becase the only reason I see scum killing Sbrubbles is if Syllo is indeed town. Risk's claim was/i believable even when poorly executed by him. Mattchew is just a oneliner machine who follows whatever crazy plan anyone cooks up to appear to be helping town. If you haven't read, you will not need to save me out of the incineration area, which means you will be able to use your pulls to insta-kill someone by pulling them all the way down. Why would you push syllo, when you can push me and achieve the same? Or would you rather see syllo have the item? I can understand if you wanted to pull him, by pushing him especially after I've told my plan is just.... retarded. Also, agreed on Mattchew. For the love of god though, please read syllogism's filter and show me that he's been even trying to scumhunt. He hasn't done anything valuable for the town yet. We could pull Syllo and he wouldn't get the item. Why are you so fixated on pushing? As for his scumhunting, I agree, he has been completely utterly useless. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 19:32 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I have read through the thread. The day lasts 48 hours. Why all the rush with pulling Bluelightz? I thought we agreed after yesterday to not spend our PoPs so hastily? I think Bluelightz is almost certainly scum, but I am far more interested in getting the whole Syllo/Cephiro/risk.nuke mess sorted out. Can we wait with the bluelightz pulls until we've figured out a plan for that? I'm still waiting for Cephiro to come up with a better explanation of why his plan benefits town (and as I explain below I am now actually very suspicious of him). Instead of his plan, I propose both Cephiro and Syllo get pulled off the bottom just to be sure. A 1:1 trade is generally good for town and the only chance it's not a 1:1 trade is if risk.nuke was lying, in which case he gets lynched tomorrow. I have gone over Syllo and Cephiro's filter with a comb. Lets start with Cephiro: I find his assertions of why his plan is townie increasingly scummy the more I look at them. He has a LOT of filler asserting that he's town and we should listen to him. Do I need to refer to the OP of jubjub mafia about why this is completely pointless posting? You can't prove your town by asserting it and the increased repetition is just making me suspicious: who are you trying to convince with this? You get in a bitch fight with Syllo, which serves NOBODY. We are all almost certain that one, or both of you are scum and you two squabbling over it is completely useless and just clogs up the thread. On to his reason for not revealing any details of the plan: Okay, nobody wants the details of HOW it works, just WHAT it does and why that benefits more than just pushing Syllo (or actually, both of you) off the cliff. Your reluctance to say anything other than "it benefits town and will get Syllo dead" is not making me like your plan at all. Next, I don't understand how he is not afraid of the nullify thingy that got Palmar stuck up there and his explanation of why not seems extremely dubious: Pray tell us your "reasons to believe", oh enlightened one! Is it because it's a scum ability and this is a scumslip? He also seems in an incredible rush to get this to happen before people have time to think it through. In fact, the one redeeming quality is that, if he's scum, I would've expected other mafia to get this bandwagon going, but that's too much wifom for me. On to Syllo: yesterday I thought Sbrubbles was more likely to be scum than Syllo, but things have changed. Taken without what seems to be a serious scumslip by Cephiro, I would almost certainly label Syllo scum now that Sbrubbles flipped town. If we ignore, as he asks us to, his timing on the D1 PoPs, he has contributed a grand total of nothing to this thread. Some speculation on BM's roleclaim is the grand total of his scumhunting. Everything else is filler: he shows presence without actually doing anything useful. He has a somewhat useful dialogue with WBG, but it is only about why he isn't scum, no real contribution at all. Additionally, the same accusation of a giant bitchfight with Cephiro can be leveled at him: useless filler to pad his filter. My opinion: we pull both of them off the cliff to ensure no mistakes. A 1:1 trade is good for town and, given their postings, we might even have two mafia here. First, the point about me somewhat constantly saying I am town. I don't see what's wrong with that. I know I am town and I have no reason to hide it either. Would you rather have me type in conditional every single time? There is no point for me to speculate that I could be scum in every message of mine as I know I am town, and you know it too. So you don't want a roleclaim but you still want to know what my ability does? Well, I'll make it simple for you. It gets scum killed. You also blame me for cluttering the thread up with syllo. Sure, that may be slightly true, but if that's the only way I'm going to convince you guys of getting syllo killed, then so be it. I'm here to kill scum, not to play diplomatics. Also I found it hilarious how you use the same arguments on me as syllogism did. You both keep pointing out how I am not afraid of being nullified, and trying to find out why. Why would you try to find out the reason unless you were scum trying to stop me? You couldn't be much more obvious. Especially since you all use the same poor arguments on me. The thing about people confirming they're town is more of a psychological meta-argument for me. People tend to try to confirm their lies more than the truths. They are confident enough in the truths that they don't need to repeat them. Note, I am not a psychologist, but I picked that stuff up somewhere and it stuck (maybe even a TV show). Okay, it bugged me, I looked it up. It was Goebbels, famous nazi propagandist who said "repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed". I think I've said often enough that "getting scum killed" is all very well, but seeing as your scum reads are basically "everybody who is against my plan is scum", that is pretty damned dubious. Care telling us how many scum you'll get killed and preferrably WHO it will get killed (in addition to Syllo)? If it's just Syllo, I ask you once again, why should we push you up there, rather than just pulling Syllo off the edge? You keep refusing to answer that question. Also, pushing Syllo is pretty risk-free too: we wait for lots of people and pool our pushes. Those that can't get used are refunded (like happened to WBG's push on Palmar on D1). + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 20:15 syllogism wrote: It doesn't seem possible to even kill ceph today as assuming the nullifying power can be used more than once, scum will just nullify him after we've wasted PoPs on him. Even if they can't do that, he may not be lying about having some sort of power that allows him to switch places in the queue. Look at this gem of a post by syllogism. His only post when he checks the thread is about trying to place suspicion on me. I repeat, he has not and is clearly not going to do anything useful for the town. Is it that hard for you all to see that he hasn't been scumhunting at all? No. I think there's a pretty good chance he's scum. If you hadn't cherrypicked my post, you would have discovered that all by yourself. However, that is not enough to exculpate you and until Syllo is confirmed scum, there's a considerable chance we were wrong. Helping you achieve something that could be a scumscheme thus seems needlessly risky at this point. We have things well in hand without some crazy plan. [spoiler][quote] + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 20:16 cascades wrote: Cephiro you complain about Syllo speculating about mafia powers that might need pop to activate, then you go ahead and speculate that its unlikely there's no mafia framer? More importantly, you also softclaim that implies syllo is mod confirmed red. You backed out of it after people called you out, since you still need to have powers to get yourself out of incineration somehow. Doesn't excuse the scummy softclaim. I am really curious about the plan now. I want to hear it. You have to justify better before we help you. There's a chance you scum in our eyes. You've heard the plan and all there is to it. Do you have a reason to believe there is a mafia framer then? Also, you claim that I complained about syllo's speculation about scum powers that may need PoP to activate. This is false however, as I was only asking him questions to specify what he means. Why are you trying to make it look bad for me? The rest of the post is about bluelightz. I have already stated where I was wrong in understanding his ability. You say there are better people to lynch than bluelightz. I agree: you and Syllo. Who, other than Syllo and yourself, is currently a better target than bluelightz? Your list includes cascades, prplhz and Mattchew (other than syllo and myself). Mind making a case on anyone other than Syllo, that is NOT based on our unwillingness to promote your plan? | ||
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On April 05 2012 02:25 wherebugsgo wrote: You're probably right, and I could be overly worried simply because we haven't properly flipped anyone yet. I'm most concerned with getting that first scum killed because that'll at least give confirmation that we're on the right track. Perhaps I just lack confidence. I don't want to split the votes too much, but at the same time I want to kill 3 people today (syllo, Tobon, and Bluelightz). I'm really curious about this Cephiro thing and I'm very close to just pushing him as well. I can get with the lynch candidates. I just don't know why we want to go with Cephiro's plan for that. We have the almost-confirmed townie if Syllo flips red IN ANY CASE (otherwise we lynch Cephiro first thing tomorrow and thank the gods we didn't go along with his plan). Why take needless risks in pushing someone who has a very real possibility of being scum up to wherever he wants to go? | ||
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On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo) If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire. Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today. We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy. Here goes nothing. ##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? | ||
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On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote: What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far. The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else? Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town. What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all. Okay, barring some extremely strange circumstance in which risk's roleclaim and the red traffic light are NOT the police car toy from DFM1, Cephiro is confirmed scum if Syllo flips town in any case and I don't think anybody is opposed to killing Syllo here and now. So I don't see how this plan by a scumbag is at all risky. So you actually wifom'd the wifom out of that in the subsequent part. Did you actually read that? I will condense the second part of your post for you: 1. Cephiro might be scum, which is a reason not to push him and just kill Syllo (okay so far) 2. However, that relies on the assumption that Syllo is scum (err, okay. I disagree. It will confirm him as scum. I think there's probably about 60-70% chance of him being scum at this point) 3. In which case Cephiro is town (errrmmm, okay, probably. You feeling the wifom yet? I am fairly certain that a smart guy would know that I would know that he would put the wine in front of me) 4. BUT THEN Cephiro is telling the TRUTH and he's town (lol, I am seeing Inigo Montoya's pokerface right now) 5. In which case we should comply with his plan (LOOK BEHIND YOU, A three-headed monkey! /switchcups) | ||
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On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us. You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked? | ||
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On April 05 2012 03:15 Cephiro wrote: @ Acro: I am not OMGUSing, you are just claiming that I am. I have provided fair reasoning for every single one of my suspects except you so far, and I am going to provide that analysis on you as well. Fair enough. I was extrapolating from the lack of a case on me. I will go over your filter again (better) later. I remember your analysis before today being pretty good, but it got lost in the plan stuff. " if scum can stop you, they will stop you, so you might as well tell us all the effects of your plan (but leave out the details of how, if that will stop scum from interfering)." This is what you say. I have told everything I can which doesn't give the scum enough idea how to counter-measure my power. You keep asking me for everything, but then you keep pointing out to leaving out the details if it means that scum can't interfere. This is the point you constantly keep bringing up, you want to know DETAILS about my plan. I have told everything I will tell, deal with it. If there was a mason possibility, I'd gladly explain the full extent of my plan to certain people via PM, but unfortunately that's not possible. To be completely honest, at this point you personally cannot convince me to go along with your plan. I admit that WBG's 4 cases post made me think. If your basis on not pushing me to the flames is that I could be scum with a superpower that extends the flames (that would still leave me there, wouldn't it?), then you're on thin ice. How about you start thinking rationally and don't do stuff because your scared of something that is extremely unlikely. How about you don't PoP at all today because someone could have an ability that kills you when touched? Lol. Nice straw man argument. We could pull to kill syllogism, yes, and I would be fine with that too. My plan however is much more beneficial for the town regarding a similar amount of PoPs (unless syllo happens to be right at the bottom again, and I am really far from the flames). My scum reads are also not "Everyone who is against my plan = scum". If you paid more attention to my posts, you would know that I have provided fair analysis based on other stuff than opposing my plan, you're just outright lying here to make me look bad. You ask me to make cases on other people than syllo. And I have, but you choose to ignore them and claim there aren't any. That's just pathetic. As for my ability, I can kill any scum I want, but the amount depends on the circumstances. Happy? Okay... that is pretty damned strange, but okay, fair enough. You finally answered a question in a different way than "it benefits town". As for your analysis before today: it impressed me. It is your plan today that has me jitterish. You are still 50% of what's left of risk's DT check and I am unwilling to trust you, more so because of the way you push this plan. | ||
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On April 05 2012 03:25 wherebugsgo wrote: You could make that argument about anyone who is scum, but then how would we actually kill them? Remember that if Cephiro could do something bad by getting to that zone we'd probably have to deal with it somehow anyway, at some point in the game. He even said he'd be fine with pushing syllo instead. Occam's razor dictates we should just push him, because in all of the circumstances it's the simplest answer. Our only problem would be nullfication, but that would happen even if we pushed syllo instead, I'd bet. Well, we could always pull him off the bottom. Anyway. You're making some sense now. I'm gonna go shopping and read Cephiro's filter again when I get back. I still don't think I'll help out, but I'll try to give the plan another shot and try to read it without paranoid glasses. More people whose judgement I trust posting would also help. | ||
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If I go along with it now, I am basically only doing it because WBG thinks it's a good idea and I have a town read on WBG. I don't much like that reason. | ||
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Pros: townie posts on first day: good catch on cascade. Also agrees that Mattchew has so far done nothing of note (agree with both reads). good questions and pays attention to the game. helps the Palmar rescue attempt after nullify is confirmed (and Palmar is town). response to prplhz' criticism of the case neutral: initial case against prplhz doesn't convince me (but I'll read prplhz's filter better later. so much homework for this game /sigh) Cons: excessively paranoid about Palmar (lol, and now I'm paranoid about him. The irony is strong here) lots of useless filler, including many (useless) affirmations that he is town and a bitch-fight with syllo. even after nullify, trying to cast suspicion on palmar. Then, the plan. It's still a null read with scummy tendencies to me, but if I read it from the assumption that Cephiro is town, then it looks okay. I still don't like his insistence that the nullifier cannot touch him, but I have to admit that overall the town reads are stronger than the scum reads. Risk.nuke's red light might have biased me too far. I am still cautious, but willing to go along with the plan. It's dinner time now, but if you want my push afterwards, I'll give it. | ||
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##push cephiro | ||
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Anyway, good luck with the plan. Guess I'll see tomorrow whether Syllo is dead. Ninja'd by Ace. I'll wait around for him to update and see what happened. | ||
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Seeing as there's only 5 scum and we cannot possibly hope to lynch all those people today, MIND CONSOLIDATING? Votes have already been cast on Syllo (by way of Cephiro, assuming that pans out) and Bluelightz. I personally think those are pretty good votes (although I still think we should just have straight up lynched Syllo). Given that any lynch today requires us to push someone completely off the queue to ensure a kill, we should really focus on one target at a time (or one for pushing and one for pulling). Discussing other targets seems fine, but at this point please don't consider poping them. | ||
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That said, I dont think there's much risk in leaving him there to die. He's cleary active atm and should be scared of being pushed off the edge, so if the item helps him, he has probably used it already. Pushing him further just wastes more of our actions and it's only a 1/5th chance at the teleport (which he may have already used if he got it). DT or medic would be useless,and probably so would the etch-a-sketch, leaving a dayvig item, which we can't prevent him from using anyway. In short, rather than wasting pops on him, when he's probably dead anyway, we should focus on another target. I still like bluelightz. Now I'll read the thread since going to bed more carefully as a lot of shit happened. | ||
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Also, arguing wih Scummogism is counterproductive. Other useless wastes of time: speculation about mafia shots and abot game setup. Tobon, I think your use of the ability was a giant waste of one of the most powerful abilities in the game, because we have no idea whether Cephiro was anywhere close to the fired. You also prolongue the whole argument around Risk's DT check, which makes its use ven worse for town. Why no wait until town is actually in trouble to use something as awesome as that? I smells scumspicious to me, but I can't think of a reason for scum to use it if Cephiro is town, so it's probably just bad, unless Cephiro is scum after all. Conclusion: if Cephiro is scum, then Tobon is too. If Cephiro is town, then Tobon is (bad) However, believing Cephiro is scum together with Tobon and a nullifier requires scum to be playing so badly that it is beyond ridiculouusto contemplate, so you two are both probably town. So Tobon,step your game up and stop speculating about random crap like game mechanics and people's roles and start scumhunting. | ||
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Someone is eating words out of my sentences | ||
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If cephiro is town, then Tobon is (bad) town is correct. There is no way scum would EVER use this ability to save a townie. Not even terrible, horrible, atrocious scum would do that. The other implication should read: If Tobon is scum, then cephiro is scum, which is simply the contraposition of the one above. I realized that if Cephiro flips scum, Tobon could still be a terribad townie who believed Cephiro to be town. This also changes the conclusion a bit, but not too much. I guess it is possible to entertain the idea that scum knew where Cephiro was and timed the four pushes to waste 4 pushes before nullifying him in the white zone. However, it just seems way too reckless a play, when things like this depend on timing over a forum. And that's assuming the nullification can even be used on fellow scum. On top of that, I concluded from Cephiro's filter yesterday that he's probably town and have no reason to change that yet. Tobon is therefore also probably town. I still insist that he steps up his game, though. Now, on to more important matters. WBG, I disagree with you. This is the last post from Ace: PoPs - Day 2 + Show Spoiler + Mr.Wiggles Bluelightz Pull prplhz risk.nuke Push Cephiro Dirkzor Mattchew Snarfs Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism Cephiro Tobon wherebugsgo Pull Bluelightz Push Cephiro layabout syllogism Mr.Zentor Pull Bluelightz prplhz Pull Bluelightz Push Cephiro Acrofales Push Cephiro Bill MurrayPush wherebugsgo Pull Snarfs cascades Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism Nemesis Pull Bluelightz Push syllogism So we have mrzentor, syllo, layabout, tobon, cephiro, mattchew, dirkzor and mrwiggles' pushes left (a total of 8). Layabout claimed yesterday he had no PoP ability, which, if true, leaves us at 7. Cephiro is nullified, leaving us at 6. One belongs to Syllo, so 6 effective pushes if everybody cooperates. That is enough to, probabilistically, get some other scum into the red zone. As I said above, pushing Syllo is only useful if you think he can do something between now and the night deadline to change his survival condition. If he can, then he might as well have done it already. So pushing him further at this point is just a waste of pops: we need 4 pops to push him off, which leaves us with 2 for someone else: that is not enough for anything. Your scumspects: I like bluelightz mattchew and cascades. Still on the fence about MrZentor. Given this, how about the following action plan: pushes on bluelightz pulls on cascades | ||
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Why did you think using your bombs was in any way, shape, or form a good idea? Regardless of the darkness (which, imho just makes it even better for scum to have the bombs placed). On top of that, knowing that it is dark and nobody can see positions, except possibly the guy who cast darkness (and is almost certainly scum), why did you say where the bombs were? And finally, because other than placing bombs your contribution to this game has been completely nothing, please give your top 3 scum reads, and tell us why they are scum. | ||
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Ace, I am unsure on your policy about this. I can probably meet the mandatory post once per day and push/pop deadlines, but the reading pressure on this game is pretty high, so don't expect much from me, starting tomorrow. Do you want me to find a replacement? | ||
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On April 05 2012 22:15 Bluelightz wrote: The usage of my power *gasp* I can only say to use or not to use. For tonight just for everyone im flipping a coin if im going to use my power or not. Lol. I hope you're dead before tonight. Why did you want your role confirmed instead of some "random bullshit claim"? What purpose does it have to confirm your role? Why are you obsessed with roleclaiming at all? What purpose does it serve? | ||
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On April 05 2012 22:44 Bluelightz wrote: Then I become the punching bag of the next day because I didnt do ANYTHING townie in d1 and discussions like this could be avoided if you simply just believe that this is what ive got and scum would probably never kill me. If this keeps on persisting, just kill me. Scum will never kill me because im always distracting town, suck it, I bet that you think that losing one PoP is worth it for not having to think of a scummy bastard like me that will be forever useless anymore. So, just lynch me whatever, i dont care about me dieing anymore everyone refuses to believe anything I say, claim whatever. I guess I will use my push on syllo, atleast I can help some way before I die and flip town. Im obssesd with role claiming because you guys keep on being "oh randomly placed bombs in the queue are scummy as fuck and therefore bluelightz is auto-scum" here is what I say it is not me that keeps on bringing this up its YOU. YOU, keep on bringing this up "" oh bluelightz's role"Oh his role is so scummy" ##Push: syllogism Lol. After this I kinda don't want to kill you anymore. I needed more from you to decide whether you were scum or just useless town. Thanks for confirming useless town. Next up on my scumometer: Mattchew. He has been awol for like 2 days now, despite posting in the GoT post-game chitterchat. What's up with that? His contributions to this thread have been nothing. He is playing completely differently to GoT mafia (where he was town and had a lot of presence). | ||
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On April 06 2012 00:52 Mattchew wrote: I think you'll notice that I only respond to the recent posts about me. I would be you could find a bunch of posts about me I don't respond to. It seems like someone calls me out for lurking once ever 2 or 3 pages. Why should I ask whats going on when I don't trust anyone. Even from fellow good toys I am going to get a skewed version of whats actually happening, let alone whatever ways bad toys will try to spin it. If you'll notice we are only on day 2. On day 1 I think I started the Palmar to item plan, and then started the VE to save him PoPs. I would say that for not being around much in the thread, those were not bad decisions at all, and are also something. (as opposed to the nothing you say I do). I tried to post my thoughts based off filters (which is not a good way of reading people) but that failed. So dirkzor why haven't you done the good townie thing and offered me an explanation of everything thats happened Huh? The plan for Palmar was being discussed. You hadn't even pop'd yet when he was almost in the red zone and I said it was an absurdly risky plan and it would either give scum an item or get a townie killed (turns out I was right, but not for the reason I expected). As for the plan to save Palmar when he was stuck up there, I believe VE came up with that all by himself. I will give you credit for starting the votes on him, but that actually had town consensus, so people were going to vote anyway. Claiming credit for 2 things you didn't do is pretty damned bad for someone who has lurked the entire game. I would be happy with pulling you off the edge in stead of bluelightz (who at least has the credible excuse that he's incredibly dumb town, rather than scum). | ||
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I also think that with the limited pulls we have, we should get consensus on who we should try to pull off the bottom. Nominations so far seem to be Bluelightz, Mattchew, MrWiggles and Cascades. That seems like more than enough for the moment, so lets get to voting: | ||
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On April 06 2012 01:23 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Oh snap, he used the word nullify! Are you serious? I can't tell anymore. If you want another reason for the syllo push, everyone decided to invest heavily into pushing syllo today. There's no guarantee that he'll actually die at the end of the day. Pushing him will help ensure he actually flips, and make sure that the investment of nearly all our day 2 resources doesn't go to waste. Leaving him just on the edge is incredibly dumb. Remember what happened to VE yesterday? Now imagine the same thing in reverse with Syllo, and it doesn't even tell us anything about his alignment, it just wastes yet another day. Next, about the vig thing. Please, please, please someone tell me how knowing that someone on town's side actually shot Shrubbles benefits scum more than town? If town killed him, scum already know that! The point of the vig claiming the shot is so that we know that it was really town who shot him, and not scum. The vig is assumed to be a VT now, so I don't get why I would desperately need that information, especially when I would already know the vig's aim is off, and thus I don't need to worry about him. So make an actual argument for why that is scummy besides saying it is. Please, I'd love you to. I want to murder you with logic. VE was wrong. He had an over-reaction to my question, and when I called him out on it, he thought I was trying to get a rise out of him. He was also someone who didn't actually have any case on me, besides calling me scum over and over. He was tunneling. So are you now. Just because you claim vigis are one-shot does not make it so. In DFM1 the vigi was 2-shot. Any player who read through DFM1 knows that, and any halfway decent player has read through DFM1, or at least its role list, because repetition has already been proved. Now I'm not saying the 2-shot vigi is in the game, but assuming the vigi is 1-shot is incredibly naïve... or a scum ploy to ferret out the vigilante. | ||
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So far I have Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout (counting your post as a vote) | ||
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On April 06 2012 05:04 Cephiro wrote: Syllo has been moved in a way or another, as he should be at position #25 by my calculations. (Which is 1 over the line). However, it is possible that he has either copied an ability that enables him to move (Like VE's horsie), or one that makes PoP's less effective on him (Fat Boy Toy from DF1?), or he has gained the teleportation device, or he has been pulled back by the hidden PoP by scum. I would personally like to push syllo just to try and ensure his death. I agree that Syllo should be on #25, but Ace nor Kurumi have updated the thread with the last pops yet, so who knows. | ||
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On April 06 2012 04:20 Acrofales wrote: We can treat our last kill just like a regular lynch and then everybody pulls the top target. It still has to happen before people start going to bed, so ##vote fast. So far I have Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout (counting your post as a vote) UPDATE: Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout, risk.nuke, Nemesis | ||
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As it stands, I think bluelightz's posting (no metagame argument, because I have none with him) is more indicative of a horrible townie than scum. However, as I also said earlier, bad town play is good for scum, so a good way for scum to blend in is to just act like a horrible townie. No clue if bluelightz plays like that. I don't think we lose much by lynching him if he's town and if he's scum we are 1 scum closer to victory. My vote is still on Mattchew, but am not opposed to just throwing bluelightz off the cliff either. | ||
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On April 06 2012 05:33 Acrofales wrote: UPDATE: Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout, risk.nuke, Nemesis UPDATE 2: Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout, risk.nuke, Nemesis, Tobon MrWiggles: Snarfs | ||
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On April 06 2012 05:43 Acrofales wrote: UPDATE 2: Mattchew: Acrofales Bluelightz: Layabout, risk.nuke, Nemesis, Tobon MrWiggles: Snarfs UPDATE 3: Mattchew: Acrofales, Cephiro Bluelightz: Layabout, risk.nuke, Nemesis, Tobon MrWiggles: Snarfs I am also going to take this opportunity to mention that bedtime is in about an hour, at which time I will use my pull on whoever is leading the votecount. I am sorry if this means USA westcoast people didn't get a say or so, but I am not waiting up till 5 AM to use my pull. | ||
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Mr.Wiggles Dirkzor Mattchew Cephiro (you can still pop right?) Tobon syllogism (don't think we can count on his pops) Acrofales This should be enough to pull bluelightz off the edge, barring very weird shit happening. | ||
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So 5 pulls on Bluelightz, plus the double-pull that already happened and risk.nuke is 8 pulls. It'll be close. By the way, what is up with Layabout's PoPs: On April 06 2012 01:47 layabout wrote: ##pull Bluelightz ##push Mattchew .... lots of useless bla bla bla.... ##pull bluelightz If layabout's pull counts that's 9 pulls on bluelightz, but WHY did he push Mattchew and then 1 post later whine that someone should push Syllo?! | ||
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##pull bluelightz | ||
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I am vehemently opposed to any plans to get the item, which have now wasted two of our days, and will advocate lynching anybody who wants to waste a third day with that crap. Lets focus on killing scum. | ||
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On April 06 2012 19:19 prplhz wrote: syllogism, Bluelightz, Mr. Wiggles, Mattchew in that order the lynch/pop is town's primary weapon against scum and we're done wasting them on stupid plans that we have seen are vulnerable to scum interference just push/pull that list we pull as many of them as we can off the bottom edge and put as many of them as we can 3 places into the red zone, maybe over the top edge if you guys want to but i don't think that they can help it if they're 3 places into the red zone. did you notice that town didn't manage to get anybody killed the first two days? Hey prplhz, mind explaining why you just hastily pulled MrZentor when last thing yesterday you were advocating 4 other people as scum and also the prudent use of pops? WTF?! Typing is a pain from my ipad in a cafe... so not much else. MrZentor is not high on my priority list. That still consists of Syllo and Bluelightz, who I feel we should kill today. I don't much like the look of cascades, BillMurray or Mattchew's filter either. Although apparently BM plays this way normally? MrZentor looks more like bored and uninterested town than scum... useless, but a real waste of using pops on him. If Mattchew throws Syllo, we can start pushing someone else (bluelightz), otherwise just push syllo to the fire and be done with him. | ||
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Btw I forgot about blue's last post... not having notes here sucks. Mattchew still seems more scummy to me than bluelightz, but I guess we should get him to throw syllo before we lynch him | ||
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On April 07 2012 22:57 Dirkzor wrote: It did cross my mind that you pull so early to force the rest of the town to also pull him. That made me wonder... But if we can agree on a scum team that is: Syllo Zentor Wiggles who are the last 2? Blue and cascades?! Catch them 1 at a time. You're clearly forgetting Mattchew there. | ||
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Zentor and prplhz's little slapfest is useless an only serves to hide scum. Cut it out and stop tunneling on each other. Zentor, in stead of your seless defense of prplhz's tunneling, do something useful. Who are your scumspects and why? Talking only about yourself is helping noone, least of all yourself. Saysomething useful or I add my pull to prplhz's. Everybody else: prove you're alive! | ||
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two more things: ceph, your roleclaim was already completely clear to everybody with more than a peanut for a brain (warp prism not some dt softclaim wtfbbqlol). BM, you're an idiot. I approve of mattchew pushes, but especially BM's reason is really bad: that does not look like a scumslip to me any more than wbg scumslipped by using a conditional. cephiro adds an interesting hypothesis about mattchew, but it's very high on wifom and directly contradicts mattchew's own claims about his ability. then again, scum would lie about that crap, wouldn't they? I'll decide tonight how to use my pops. Hopefully with the help of risk.nuke's dt check. | ||
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Banish sounds a lot like the nullify thing. Guess we have to wait for Ace to confirm wiggles is actually moved off the queue. Either way, I wanted to see him lynched, so shame (and he wasted pops, so double shame). Given the recent activity at the top and the bottom I am strongly inclined to pull Mattchew into the fire. I still think he's scummy. His roleclaim is neither here nor there and despite his excuses, he is not playing like the town Mattchew from GoT mafia. Not even now that this thread is moving slower than a snail and I could keep up from my iPad. My pull was saved for MrWiggles. Now I'm thinking BillMurray. I'm not sure what the hell he is, town or scum, but I am sick and tired of his retarded cases that make no sense. However, at the bottom there's a number of people, so gonna check filters and stuff (homework /sigh). Risk.nuke: I am unsure about Tobon and dirkzor, but leaning towards town on both of them. I haven't got either in my semi-confirmed town list, though, so I kinda like a check on them. Who were you planning on checking? You said you wanted a few pushes? | ||
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##push Mattchew | ||
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Spain17186 Posts
Firstly, neither Mattchew nor Bluelightz are scum... that kinda surprises me. Bluelightz I was up in the air about, but Mattchew really seemed like he was playing a scummy game. My reads are apparently totally off this game. Secondly, scumclaim without winning. That gives us a glimmer of hope. I have thought it through a bit and there's not much hope, but we haven't outright lost the game, which means they probably miscalculated with their claim. I can't believe syllo is still not dead. How hard is it to kill people in this game (apparently scum has no problem with it :S )? So, we have confirmed scum: Syllogism cascades MrZentor Nemesis We have town: Snarfs risk.nuke Cephiro Tobon dirkzor Acrofales That leaves MrWiggles as the last scum through a process of elimination. I have some corroborating evidence as well, but there's no real rush. He has now roleclaimed two different abilities. Either his first claim was a fakeclaim and his ##banish in the thread did nothing, but he PM'd Ace to turn invisible (as per his second claim). This seems unlikely for a town player: it all panned out too well and town players don't sit around thinking of how to fake claim convincingly. So that makes him scum, because one of his roleclaims (second one, obviously) is false. There is no reason to roleclaim that second ability, except to join the trolling scumbags in their trollfest and to create more confusion. However, I fear it doesn't really matter. It is now 7 town vs. 5 mafia and they have at least one double PoP ability, making it 7 vs. 6 PoPs. Add the nightkill and we're down to 6 vs. 6 PoPs, and they might even have that hidden move ability they used in D1. If we actually have any nightkills, they need to be used (obviously). My ability is completely useless. Hopefully Dirk has something, because otherwise it comes down to 5 perfect day lynches. We are not just at lylo, but because of the setup we are at lynch and not get counterlynched, or lose. The only plan I can think of working is to, every morning at 6 AM, pull the bottom-most scum straight off the queue without giving scum time to push him back up. Then saving the rest of our pops to counteract scum's attempts to kill one of us too. That means we kill during the day, they kill during the night and there's more of us, so after 5 days they are out of scum members. Any slipup of coordination on our part and we probably lose. Scum has a minimum of 6 PoPs which they can coordinate in scumQT. If they get a nightkill, we have 6 PoPs which can be coordinated in the thread, under mafia supervision. I find it hard to see how we can win this, but am willing to give it a go, if the rest of the town is. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
TA TA DA TAAAA THE SCUM TEAM. I love it when a plan comes together. Good game Thanks, Ace and Kurumi for hosting. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
Next bad plan was bluelightz' bombs. Not even their use, which I didn't think was so scummy: he had no idea about darkness, but mentioning their positions when only mafia had any hope of using that was just really bad. cephiro'splan wasn't bad at all, but he was very overconfident about the nullifier. tobon's revive could have been very good or very bad for town, but given the info town had, using revive then seemed complete overkill. Of course, it may have saved a lot of kills, because nemesis' smash did something town never suspected. Finally, we then got lucky with syllo being so near the top that he picked up the item, and doubly lucky that it was a teleporter. After that, life was easy. Town coordination was dead, insofar as it had existed and wbg's roleclaim came just in time to shoot him for it. My own plan this game was to look more townie than in GoT mafia. I liked my play there, being very active, but had a rocky start. This game I felt my start was much smoother, but the many town-confirmations made inventing bullshit cases quite tricky. I was also pretty scared that if I tempted Mattchew too much he'd see through my play, based on GoT mafia. Any further tips to improve my play would be greatly appreciated. @Cephiro, if I recall, you were the only one to be particularly suspicious of me. Remember why that was? | ||
Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
As for the real-time nature, I didn't realize how demanding it would be. Given the experience I feel a forum with people in different timezones and different time restrictions is probably not the best medium for this setup. maybe try it over IRC? | ||
Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17186 Posts
Anyway, you played a pretty good game. I didn't find you particularly dangerous on D1: while you correctly identified a number of mafia, you didn't try to convince others to your cause. Then again, D1 was largely wasted on the Palmar thing and other disruptive stuff like BillMurray's roleclaim, and the whole vote or no-vote discussion, so can't really blame you for not pushing your reads. On D2 you basically emerged as the leader of the town, getting them organized and shit, whereas our whole plan was to create mayhem and get the wrong people popped (we were willing to bus syllo and/or go all-in then already if it seemed beneficial). Quite a bit of discussion was on IRC, so not sure how much of this you got from scumQT. Anyway, pretty much the only thing you got wrong was that the nullifier had restrictions (other than once per day and Syllo couldn't use it on himself). Luckily we weren't too worried about having to nullify anybody other than you, because of darkness. Ace pointed out in his analysis that there was still a lot of use for the powers, but none of us thought of any of them (until Ace said the lights went on at the end of the day, but by then risk.nuke had already used a pop). Nullifying you where we did was a stroke of blind luck (Syllo had to go to bed), but confirmed you as town. The role I assumed was to try to convince town of how stupid your plan was (I didn't think we could really prevent it, but confusion and delays were to our advantage). It really was a pretty good plan, but we actually wanted it to happen so we could nullify you in the death zone after you grabbed the item (or maybe even get lucky and you had landed above the item after the smash). So when Bugs put forward some convincing arguments (and delay was no longer an option), I changed sides, thereby also setting me up in a position to completely buss Syllo. This, rather inconveniently confirmed you as town, but by then other people were starting to speak up and you got drowned in the clamour for killing bluelightz: seriously, why... I couldn't even convince myself with my case and all other cases for him were equally terrible. It was completely obvious he was just a very bad townie, not scum. I set up the whole vote system in the hope of getting bluelightz killed, while making me look like a townie who was concerned over getting shit organized: if bluelightz had died, it could hardly be traced back to me, as by that point I was soft defending him. It also conveniently neutralized anything useful you were trying to say. I think D3 would probably have gone rather differently if you had not had to afk out. Your synergy with Tobon was just starting to get going and you were playing off each other really well (although Tobon's reads were not as accurate). Even if the final decision to leave Syllo in the red zone was not good, imho the main problem for town was its complete lack of any kind of leadership, and we could basically take over, reinforcing the suspicions on Mattchew, MrWiggles and Bluelightz in favour of cascades and MrZentor. In the end we had wasted enough of town pops and had enough townies ready to die, that we could go all-in. We were only worried about what Dirkzor's power was. | ||
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