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On March 11 2012 11:49 FirmTofu wrote:
A no lynch is always better than a lynch unfounded in evidence.
Or is it?
We can watch the who votes on who. We can observe who listens to who. We can deduce who has a inherently positive disposition to who.
I find myself sounding rather like an owl :/
Why post information already stated?
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On March 11 2012 14:19 Gossemerr wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 11:49 FirmTofu wrote:
A no lynch is always better than a lynch unfounded in evidence.
Or is it?
We can watch the who votes on who. We can observe who listens to who. We can deduce who has a inherently positive disposition to who.
I find myself sounding rather like an owl :/ Why post information already stated?
What do you think about lynch vs no lynch on day 1?
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I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards.
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Ok, then. Is there any instance like what I mentioned that would make you even consider a no lynch?
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Well like you said, if the there is a good amount of evidence that those being voted on are townies; then of course a no lynch would be best. I'm guessing that we will not be certain either way.
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Gotcha. Good information to know.
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On March 11 2012 14:28 Gossemerr wrote:
I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards.
That would be true if Mafia were not killing someone during the night. Currently out of 12 players we have 9 town and 3 scum so if we decide to do a random lynch, we have 75% chance of killing a townie and then on Day 2 we would be 7 town and 3 scum where in a no lynch scenario we would be 100% to lose only 1 person.
Of course, it is hard to tell anything this early in the day, we will have to wait for everyone to post their thought before we make a decision but I will state right now that I am 100% against a random lynch because it is really too risky to do it this early in the game. I'm for a no lynch until proven otherwise.
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Okay, but say we don't lynch. Now, after the night phase we will now have 11 total - 8 town and 3 scum - and essentially no more information than we started with, other than we are down one townie. Now what do we do? It will now be a 72.7% chance of killing a townie now (down from 75%), if we consider it to be a completely random lynch again. All I am saying is that at least if we vote to lynch someone - based off at least a minor hunch - then we get some information; which includes their defence, and the the responses of everyone else. In addition, after the flip, we will receive even more valuable information.
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I say we lynch a lurker. Take your pick.
6.) InfernOokami7
7.) koritora
8.) Eleanthas
9.) Sbrubbles
10.) cosine
12.) Nova_Terra
If they talk, don't kill them. Pretty simple concept I'm sure we can all agree on. Lurkers aren't going to help anyone.
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Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up 
I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies.
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EBWOP: FirmTofu, i think the one problem with lynching lurkers is that we dont really know if they are a lurker. my point is, that when people see your last message, they are going to post, right? especially if they are scum who are lurking. if a townie just doesnt show up (so isnt lurking) i find him more likely to be killed by your list than any mafia.
That being said, I think we should continue to suspect all people on that list. I guess that even includes myself. i just have a feeling that ~2 scum could be in there and will step up when their buddies tell them, "You gotta post, man!"
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lynch is always better than no lynch except sometimes in lylo. no lynch day 1 just kicks the can to day 2 and gives the scum a free kill.
btw tofu advocating lurker lynches this early is p stupid. scum don't need to lurk this early. it's not until the discussion gets more substantive that they like to keep a low profile. even if we got lucky and hit scum, it wouldn't tell us anything. better to get the talkative scum first.
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On March 11 2012 17:59 cosine wrote:
lynch is always better than no lynch except sometimes in lylo. no lynch day 1 just kicks the can to day 2 and gives the scum a free kill.
btw tofu advocating lurker lynches this early is p stupid. scum don't need to lurk this early. it's not until the discussion gets more substantive that they like to keep a low profile. even if we got lucky and hit scum, it wouldn't tell us anything. better to get the talkative scum first.
Did you actually just say that no lynch is sometimes better than lynch in a situation where town loses if they dont lynch mafia?
By those sometimes do you mean (hypothetically) when you are mafia?
Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid.
Also i disagree with the point about it's not until the discussion gets more substantive that they like to keep a low profile.
see sloosh's play in newbie mini mafia IV. says nothing when it doesnt matter. once the discussion gets more substantive does he appear and work the town.
##FOS: cosine
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Ok. Just got first chance to get on computer.
And I think that we should lynch lurker maybe. They are anyways pretty worthless if they don't speak.
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On March 11 2012 16:01 FirmTofu wrote:
I say we lynch a lurker. Take your pick.
6.) InfernOokami7
7.) koritora
9.) Sbrubbles
If they talk, don't kill them. Pretty simple concept I'm sure we can all agree on. Lurkers aren't going to help anyone.
While I agree that lurkers are useless, policy lynches are even more useless/scummy. It forces the town down a path that, and allows the mafia to refer back to policy, without ever discusses its opinion. Its best to decide around voting time which is the best path to go, if you're cases aren't fully fleshed out, lynching a lurker is a good option until you can put more pressure and get more discussion out of your suspects.
I see that this is pressure to get everyone to start talking, but just putting it out there that I don't think policy lynches should be followed. Also I updated the list to the recent people who haven't talked yet.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 11 2012 15:13 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 14:28 Gossemerr wrote:
I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards. That would be true if Mafia were not killing someone during the night. Currently out of 12 players we have 9 town and 3 scum so if we decide to do a random lynch, we have 75% chance of killing a townie and then on Day 2 we would be 7 town and 3 scum where in a no lynch scenario we would be 100% to lose only 1 person. Of course, it is hard to tell anything this early in the day, we will have to wait for everyone to post their thought before we make a decision but I will state right now that I am 100% against a random lynch because it is really too risky to do it this early in the game. I'm for a no lynch until proven otherwise.
I agree that the mafia kill gives you information to a point, but mafia can be clever in their day 1 kill and can purposely tunnel the town in whatever direction they see fit, or kill a townie with no outstanding opinions on cases. This situation leads to no information/ a confused town. At least through a town produced lynch with have control over the situation put pressure on all players to explain their opinions and votes, thus up the discussion, easier to analyse in day 2.
Like mentioned above worst comes to worst, if we do not have a strong case going with a lurker lynch at least gets rid of anti-town, has the possibility of being scum, and gives a flip to analyse the actions of others before that vote. Silence, bandwagoning, etc.etc.
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Where cosine at.... i want him to respond to my suspicions
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Day 1 vote. Remember you need a majority at the deadline to lynch,
Current votes:
Not voting: FirmTofu, Nova_Terra, Eleanthas, cosine, koritora, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Janaan, Seviro, InfernOokami7, Sbrubbles, phagga
The Day deadline is at 2012-03-13 12:00:00. (That's approximately 1 day, 12:00:42 from now.)
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On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote:
Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid.
Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time
On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote:Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies.
But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though
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On March 12 2012 01:51 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote:
Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid.
Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote:Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though
Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything.
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EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate.
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EPT
