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On March 07 2012 06:45 Paperscraps wrote:
TLDR: One townie calls another townie scum. They argue back and forth and nothing is gained.
This is the main reason I don't post big huge analytic posts. I did that in my first game against CatsNHats, who I thought was scum and made pretty convincing cases against him. CatsNHats was actually town and thus I was blind to the real mafia,Cephiro, who I thought was town. Basically CatsNHats and I tunneled each other and argued constantly losing the game for town. This is what is happening here. Mafia is sitting back, watching two townies rip each other apart. But wait there is a difference this time! I think Snarfs is town and won't tunnel him back, so we have a chance!
Meh, I don't think anything was lost here. I had fun typing it up if nothing else.
So which of these is the most scummy: Decon, Adam, Pandain, other?
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I find it hard to believe that Decon would be the first on Sandroba D2 if he was scum. Was it that obvious Sandroba was going down Day 2 even before the votes started?
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On March 07 2012 09:05 Palmar wrote:
I am a soft kitty
Clearly this game is playing tricks on my mind.
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On March 07 2012 12:34 Pandain wrote:
#vote Paperscraps
Awful quick vote there against a guy who's claiming blue. We have 2 days to figure out if he's lying or not, we should use it.
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##Vote Adam4167
I gotta agree with Prob and the recently deceased on this one. Adam has been actively posting without providing any content.
Here's a good example for you:
On March 02 2012 12:58 Adam4167 wrote:Prob, my activity will come in bursts most of the game. I have uni back on now and also I don't like posting just for the sake of it, only when I feel I have something relevant to contribute. I find Palmar interesting, as I do in every one of our games. I think his exchange with you from yesterday was an exercise in stating the obvious, something I don't expect from him. As I said to him yesterday, everything he was stating was stuff that townies should already be doing and the fact that he needed to stress it across 4 posts shows that he is either just talking for the sake of putting words on a page, or he has no faith in this town. Right now, I am leaning towards he is not town. I find Pandains 'analysis' of Killer Cup interesting also. Pandain warns about making assumptions about your accusers here. Then he goes on to make the assumption that Killer Cup is so scummy that he cant be scum here. I made that assumption in Arkham City with jaybrundage, that he looked so damn scummy that he had to be bad town. Nope, wrong. He was just obvscum. I don't agree with Pandains logic, but that doesn't make him scum, so I have him as null for now. Misder, if you have all those reads on everyone, why not write a paragraph on each one and detail how you got to those reads. Writing everyone's name and then an alignment is pointless and we all love pointless lists around here. Your OMGUS vote on deconduo is weak. You're voting him because he has different reads to you? You need to start putting effort into your reads.
I also don't know what this is:
I have been actively not contributing since day 1.
But it certainly isn't pro-town.
And this:
You asked Pandain for his reads on who he thought was scum, he named Bluelightz, Jackal and myself.
This is a glaring contradiction to his stance towards me yesterday. He was actively defending me and pushing the lynch in any other direction. Yet you don't even bat an eye-lid at his complete 180.
Town Probulous is better then that, he would call out the glaring contradiction.
Looks an awful lot like misdirection to me.
I don't want to just leave it at that though. The strength of the town is in our numbers. Can we not use that?
One thing that immediately pops out is Adam's recent vote on Probulous.
Can anyone else besides Adam give a good reason for voting up Probulous? I mean, he seems like the most pro-town guy left! I would really like to hear Pandain and Dec's opinions on this, given they're the remaining veterans here. It also wouldn't hurt if AKCT chimed in, I feel like we haven't heard from that guy in awhile.
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On March 07 2012 13:43 Adam4167 wrote:
You asked Pandain for his reads on who he thought was scum, he named Bluelightz, Jackal and myself.
This is a glaring contradiction to his stance towards me yesterday. He was actively defending me and pushing the lynch in any other direction. Yet you don't even bat an eye-lid at his complete 180.
Town Probulous is better then that, he would call out the glaring contradiction.
##Vote Probulous
I think rather than nailing Probulous on this assumption, it would be in the best interests of the town to explain why you are not voting for Pandain given that you noticed it.
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I honestly think we have an Adam + Pandain remaining scum team with deconduo as our SK.
Adam has already had a case made against him.
Pandain:
- Has consistently worked to oppose votes against Adam and Sandroba
- As AKCT pointed out, he could have easily led to us lynching a blue if AKCT was/is blue and had reacted differently
- Was way too quick to jump on Paper after claiming blue.
- Easily switches votes between TheToast, Bluelightz and Paper. Only votes Sandroba when it's a clear lynch.
decon:
- Doesn't seem to care who gets lynched
- ??? Someone needs to be either a 4th mafia or an SK.
- Gut instinct says it's this guy. I know it's a shit reason, but I don't see any point in not telling you guys that that's what I believe.
Obviously my case against decon is very weak. But who are our alternatives?
AKCT's reaction to Pandain should pretty much clear his name, but he has disappeared since then. I would really like to hear a good reason for this.
Bluelightz??? How the hell do you read this guy?
Paper? Maybe, but his reasoning for hitting Jackal makes sense, he did think he was scum. Also, I do believe him when he admits that he should have called the shot before the deadline. I'm never afraid to admit when I'm wrong, and I definitely think I was wrong about Paper unless I see some sort of evidence to disbelieve his claim.
My case against Pandain does revolve a bit around Adam being mafia. I think we have enough reason at this point to lynch Adam today though.
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decon, besides Paper, who else do you think could be SK?
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You know what? After reading quotes like this:
anyway staying lurkerish but not being ompletely inactive actually gets you off the mind of people XD
and this:
I Think my lurkerish state is lurkerish enough to stop a case being made on me ^_^
in the quick topic Adam linked earlier on Bluelightz, I would be very happy to lynch Bluelightz today.
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Well, actually, if for some strange reason Adam flips town then I would consider it... But then we are getting low on townspeople.
We're at 6-2-1 right now assuming an SK. If we mess this lynch up we could potentially be at a worst case of 3-2-1 if mafia and SK both kill a townie.
I mean, this lynch is so important for town today. Where're the contributions from AKCT, Bluelightz, Pandain, etc.??
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On March 08 2012 09:20 Probulous wrote:
I assume from that post and your previous one that you believe Paper's claim? What do you think of my defense of him? I am not 100% convinced but it justs seems more likely that he is a naive Vet than scum or SK. Your thoughts on this would be appreciated.
To me, it looked like an honest mistake.
I think we could make a ton of assumptions or guesses, but in the end, mafia and SK are trying to look like town anyways. Unless we have evidence to refute his claim, we're better off targeting people who look more scummy.
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##Unvote
##Vote Bluelightz
This feels more right as of now. Bluelightz deserves to die.
When I get home from work tonight I'm going to reread the thread again and try and untangle this mess, but I have the same feeling for Bluelightz as I did for Sandroba, and that is that no matter what he flips, he deserves to be lynched and I can be happy with that.
Still 25.5 hours to go though, who knows what will be said that can't be unsaid.
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On March 08 2012 10:37 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 09:17 Snarfs wrote:
Well, actually, if for some strange reason Adam flips town then I would consider it... But then we are getting low on townspeople.
We're at 6-2-1 right now assuming an SK. If we mess this lynch up we could potentially be at a worst case of [b]3-2-1[b] if mafia and SK both kill a townie.
I mean, this lynch is so important for town today. Where're the contributions from AKCT, Bluelightz, Pandain, etc.?? Ummm wait a minute here. Total number of mafia is hidden in this game. How is it you seem to know how many scum players there are in this game?? I suppose you could have guessed/reasoned from balance, but you didn't say that. You didn't even bother to share your reasoning as to why you think there were 3 scum to start off with. Why would you go out of the way to point out that you are assuming the existence of the SK but not to mention you are assuming numbers on Mafia? Explain please.
Sorry, I just assumed that these games are all typically balanced the same. 4 anti-town to 10 town made sense to me.
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Although, looking back at the last Wiggles Mini now, it's very possible that I'm overestimating the number of anti-town players.
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@TheToast: Any objections to lynching Bluelightz?
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On March 08 2012 09:07 Snarfs wrote:You know what? After reading quotes like this: Show nested quote +anyway staying lurkerish but not being ompletely inactive actually gets you off the mind of people XD and this: Show nested quote +I Think my lurkerish state is lurkerish enough to stop a case being made on me ^_^ in the quick topic Adam linked earlier on Bluelightz, I would be very happy to lynch Bluelightz today.
I realized Adam's link doesn't go straight to the mafia QT for that game.
Here it is for easy reference: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/sBtbs6s2Fwh
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On March 08 2012 13:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 12:55 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread with no assumptions i still get back to where I was before, a nagging feeling that Prob will flip red. That's my read, take it or leave it. If you are red Prob, then you've done a great job of convincing everyone else that you're town, so much so that I'd say this game is probably unrecoverable.
Upon second reading assuming Prob is town, it is probably the best move to kill Bluelightz. Toast is exactly right, he could flip either way, hes a permanent null read for me, but via process of elimination, he looks good to die. I don't want to lynch Pandain, Paperscraps, Snarfs, TheToast or Probulous (still operating under the assumption that he is town) which leaves me with Bluelightz, deconduo and AKCT.
##Vote Bluelightz It is a wonderous thing to see, when a scum finally realises that he should bus, but far, far too late. ##Vote Bluelightz
Why would you say this and then vote for Bluelightz instead of Adam?
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##Unvote
Just finished rereading the thread, need to dump some thoughts.
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For a "confirmed townie", A Killer Cuppa Tea is playing pretty bad. Especially for someone who claims that he has played "a pretty large amount of games.
Before that though: Hi! I'm AKillerCuppaTea, but you can call me Tea. I'm from the UK. My experience of mafia on TL is none whatsoever, but I have played a pretty large amount of games on a number of other forums as well as irc.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=299955¤tpage=16#304
Pandain hasn't come back to support his extremely quick vote for Paperscraps, but he was online about 7 hours after it. On rereading the thread, my case against Paper was pretty bad. The only decent cases started coming out against Paper after Pandain's vote, not before. He couldn't use that as evidence so why was he so quick to jump on Paper?
We know Pandain is capable of orchestrating... pretty much anything. Is it possible that a scum team of Tea, Sandroba, and Pandain came up with this plan from the start?
Palmar claimed that he would bet on this being a town-Pandain, but he also said he'd lynch him for being bad anyways. Plus, there's the whole 'throw my vote on the guy who's claiming blue because he's under a little scrutiny'.
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Jackal, Probulous, and Palmar all claimed at one point earlier that Adam was giving them bad vibes for different reasons.
Adam tried to make a case against Probulous?
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Bluelightz has been absent most of the game. He has contributed 2 posts of worth. One was an attack on Paper that was worse than mine, and the other was a list of players with his scum readings. Either of which could have come from either town or scum.
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After consideration, I'm going to put my vote back on Adam for now. Palmar said at the beginning of the game that if a vet dies, we should make sure we go back and give their reads a chance. Both Jackal and Palmar had bad feelings about Adam and I trust their reads far more than I trust my own.
That being said, I feel that Adam's attack against Probulous and his switch to Bluelightz with a null read were both quite scummy. I voted Bluelightz because I convinced myself he was scum. I still think that either he's scum or he should have asked for a replacement ages ago, but I've been told by multiple people that this is how he plays. I think it is too late to lynch Bluelightz for being a null read. If he turns up town this game, I will certainly back any Lynch Bluelightz day 1 policies in the future.
As to the attack against Probulous, he claims that he had his case ready on March 06 2012 08:55. Then he finally pushes it on March 07 2012 13:43 after first being called out by Probulous?
Sorry it took me for taking so long to get to this conclusion, but:
##Vote Adam4167
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On March 08 2012 21:45 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 20:33 Palmar wrote:
There is no sensible reason to disbelieve pandain's claim, so AKCT is going to have to claim. Now, he can't really claim medic because the chances of scum double stacking rgTS on night 1 seem very slim.
If he claims vig we lynch him, because that shot was beyond stupid.
so what's left are the tracker and the watcher. I just don't think we have multiple of those in such a small setup. He can't exactly claim watcher either because that way he'd know who visited rgTS, so I guess he's going to counterclaim tracker or something? Or try to make us believe we have more than one?
For this reason I am going to disbelieve any claim he claims. The only reasonable claim for him from a balance/viability standpoint i claiming watcher and point to a random townie and getting that player lynched, but in this case we lynch him anyway, and before we lynch the guy he points a finger at. Pretty sure the was Palmar breadcrumbing his watcher claim. I can't find any Night 1 result breadcrumb though. Possibly this: But thats either spam or too cryptic for me.
As I pointed out before, soft kitty could easily be serial killer. Sometimes I just wanna cuddle? Maybe he's pretending to say something the serial killer would say because he has a hunch. Just guessing at that one.
I realize now though that I could easily have got both the serial killer and the mafia wanting to kill Palmar night 2 by pointing that out  . Serial killer because they want to make sure if he knows he isn't able to tell anyone. Mafia because it could look like he himself is claiming serial killer. If that's true, I'm sorry Palmar.
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On March 09 2012 02:12 Paperscraps wrote:
@Snarfs: If Pandain or AKCT is scum, do you think the other is scum necessarily?
No, I don't think that if one of them should turn up scum that we should just assume the other one is. I do think it's evidence against the other person though.
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EPT
