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On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity.
The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia.
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On February 21 2012 05:01 Mattchew wrote:
ps you fucked up cause zel was voting for ET and switched
Wrong. Zelblade was voting for ET and then switched to DoYouHas. He switched from DoYouHas to DimmuKluk in the last 30 minutes of voting.
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On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor?
Settle down there, I was responding to the idea that the town should divulge all information they have. That's really bad for town and I wanted to reiterate that.
As for where I'm leaning currently, I don't buy the DoYouHas case. If you start analysis from the when DoYouHas ended the fight with Sloosh on the first day, all I see is Sloosh hardline tunneling and/or a horrendous case of confirmation bias. The only suspicious play I read from DoYouHas was after that initial drop in the fight with Sloosh he actually returned and voted for him.
Sloosh I find far more suspicious.
He has tunneled harder than anyone in this thread, while attempting to squash any other discussion (discussion about me included). A quote like this is the most damning.
On February 20 2012 14:05 slOosh wrote:
Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion.
My point about him making a case is that he will actually try making a proper case.
Notice he FOSed you, not voted.
He has drawn such a distinct line in the sand that anyone who feels DYH is town must be scum. That flies in the face of optimal town play, so much so that I would say he is my number one suspicion at the moment.
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On February 21 2012 06:02 EchelonTee wrote:
Few notes:
What is a case based off of confirmation bias?
Alderan, zelblade was still voting for me at some point, you're picking at technicalities if you're saying zel did not vote swap from me; your point in that section was that Mafia would have been less likely to be voting me if i'm scum, so you lightly discredited him based off misrepresented information.
You also fail to acknowledge your role in the Dimmuklok lynch, while I directly pointed out my own role. I find that weird. Also weird is that you state "I'll only argue someone I think is town if they getting lynched", when MG was directly adding about DYH, who our being lynched. Obviously you posted your opinion later, but your response is largely "I think sloosh is wrong", not "I think DYH is town". Don't like your posting one bit.
Still from phone, still at school.
- Confirmation bias in the sense I'm referring is that Sloosh is so infatuated with lynching DYH that he makes posts like this:
On February 20 2012 12:02 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 11:32 DoYouHas wrote:
My town reads are: trackd00r, ET, gumshoe, slOosh, and blae000.
This leaves a pool of 8 people in which I think all mafia are present. That is where I am looking now, and that is who I am building cases on. WOW. Lynch him NOW. 15 players to start. 1 lynched, 1 shot. That leaves 13 players. He posts 5 town reads, and concludes all mafia in the remaining 8 people, of which he is one. Don't even wait for his case. Lynch him.
Because he has become fixated on DYH simple semantic errors are leading him to come to some pretty rash conclusions.
- My voting analysis was only on the 30 minutes up to the Night Post because frankly that's where the important switch started. Because of this I failed to notice Zelblade was voting for you prior to voting for DoYouHas. I also don't think that it is necessarily relevant, as I stated before, this was analysis from the point everyone realized it might be a no-lynch (at which point Zelblade was on DoYouHas) and the Night Post.
" your point in that section was that Mafia would have been less likely to be voting me if i'm scum."
This is WIFOM. Mafia would have no problem voting for another scum if he wasn't in any danger. In fact, Zelblade getting off you just before things started getting hairy might be even more telling.
- I firmly believe that it is much more effective to find flaws in arguments than make "Why x perosn is Town" posts. Period.
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You have got to start using preview gumshoe....
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Sloosh, you wanted me to skim through your filter and I did. You told me that I would find evidence that you were being pro town, supporting discussion and not tunneling DYH.
I took your advice and here's all the pro-discussion posts I found:
What we need right now is focus. Work with the current cases unless you have something really compelling to share.
Your stance on DYH and MG?
MidnightGladius: What do you think of DoYouHas?
And THEN you realize DYH is gonna be lynched so you say this:
It is in our best interest to now redirect our focus on finding new scum candidates, rather than taking a break until he gets lynched. Time is valuable and I do not want people to become lax.
Saying that you are not hard lining DYH is asinine, you absolutely are. You just think there no more reason to pursue him as your goal is already complete.
But this is the one I ESPECIALLY LOVE
Whether DYH flips red or green should not direct us to our next lynch target.
Mafia know each other and can manipulate their connections, knowing that they might be linked.
This is the equivalent of saying, "Guys, guys, check it out, we totally shouldn't look at who started the train on DYH if he flips green, I'm sure it doesn't mean anything.....
Let's be real though, all this "pro-town" discussion didn't get in the way of you throwing out gems like this:
WOW. Lynch him NOW.... Don't even wait for his case. Lynch him.
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion.
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Wow, ok where to start....
Mattchew's Case: Obviously fits with my line of thinking in my vote analysis very well. I disagree with him about all 4 of the candidates, but I'm fairly certain about Trackd00r and TKHawkins. Midnight and Zelblade are less suspicious for very different reasons but I'm certainly not counting them out.
The DoYouHas Lynch: I obviously stated I don't like it, and in all honesty I think it's the product of the most hard line tunneling I have ever seen in a mafia game. I don't think he has to die, I mean just look at the last post. It is filled with pro-town sentiments. There is one part I disagree with however.
Sloosh's Silliness: The part I don't agree with DoYouHas about is his feelings (if i interpreted this correctly, feel free to clear this up) that Sloosh is town. Now I had been leaning that way up until yesterday and then things began to change. Here's why:
Let's make a list of who Sloosh has cast suspicion on this game.
EchelonTee- Only for a second
DoYouHas
MidnightGladius
Alderan
Mattchew
Now let's take a look at the context of the thread at the time of the cast suspicion with all his suspects after DoYouHas.
MidnightGladius- "You're looking really scummy to me right now MG. Unless you provide good reasoning why you think DYH is town, it is absolutely incriminating that you would bring up a new lynch suspect "who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar"."
That's it. That's his case. That's what made MG suspicious.
There is a back and forth between the two of them which kind of dies out because MG eventually "sees the light" and joins the bandwagon.
Alderan- I begin by noting how suspicious it is Sloosh is tunneling so hard, and how I don't like the DYH lynch.
After this sentiment I am immediately Scum #1 to Sloosh.
Mattchew- Mattchew's case is the most startling because he actually didn't say anything against Sloosh at all, he just suggested we vote for someone other than DoYouHas and then boom.... he is Scum #2.
My Response to Sloosh's Case
- You accuse me of treating my vote like trash. I'm holding my vote so I can make the right decision. With the current train on DYH, I'm pretty sure putting my vote on anyone is going to be like throwing it in the garbage anyway,
- I am commenting on YOUR PLAY now, this is no longer about me disagreeing with your arguments on DYH, it is your actions since that point. I had not originally thought you were scum, I just thought you were playing poorly, I was hoping that pointing it out would bring you back into reality with the rest of us, it didn't, but what it did provide was some interesting evidence on how you cast suspicion.
- Everyone is accountable for when they misslynch, as was I when I wrongly accused Dimmukluk. That being said I didn't come out prior to the lynch and say "Hey....uh... so if I'm wrong let's just continue on like normal....."
Where I stand at this moment:
My scumlist is as follows:
TKHawkins- For reasons pretty well articulated by some, and his lack of addressing these issues.
Sloosh- I feel like I've pretty well articulated this by now. I want to remind everyone that this read is not based off of his initial fight or case against DYH it is about how he has chosen his targets since then and the arguments he has provided.
Trackd00r- Will post analysis in the next couple of hours, I'm afraid to clog up the thread prior to the vote though. So it might be at night or the beginning of day 3.
I'm not really sure where I stand on a fourth scum, I have suspicions but like I said, we need to keep discussion on the task at hand in the hours leading up to this lynch.
So my vote will be on TKHawkins as he is the best chance of getting lynched today.
##vote: TKHawkins
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On February 22 2012 09:17 Mattchew wrote:
hey gumshoe... remember that time i told you to take your vote off DYH? any regrets listening to your great leader sloosh?
Just have to move on now to the case at hand...... As much as I would like to, saying "I told you so" it provides us with nothing.
Hopefully the people drinking Sloosh's koolaid will now come to realize there are better cases. We need a scum lynch tomorrow in a bad way.
Let's try to think impartially this time guys.
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GMarshal, you can stomp on my assholery any day....
Morning drunk from mardi gras...
Peace.
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I hate that RG is holding us hostage basically. He's not posting and there's no way we can get a read on him, and he can use the MYLO to never have to post constructively again.... shit sucks.
As for who we lynch today, I don't think we could feel good about lynching RG, he is going to have to be a target after we successfully hit scum today.
My scum list is still the exact:
Trackd00r
TKHawkins
Sloosh
I'm happy to lynch any of these three. With Trackd00r and TK being the top two choices.
Let's look at Trackd00r's only post since last nigh's debacle....
+ Show Spoiler +On February 23 2012 11:04 trackd00r wrote:
Oh God... What a nightmare...
I'm not in the best shape to discuss, but this is what is going to happen. We are 4/6 mafia/town right now. There are two possible ways for the mafia to win this game right now.
1) Rushing and hoping to kill a townie at night 3. When they see a no-way-back target to lynch, they will jump to it and just wait for the kill. They'll try to keep all their effort to secure the mis lynch by leaving the target unable to defend himself back, such as ignoring any alternative candidates or keeping the focus closed. If they choose this way to end, surely they will be very active for a while, and suddenly escape out of the radar when they accomplished their goal.
2) Waiting an(-) extra day(s). Why do they do that you would ask? Mafia can't easily pull off their votes to a single target when there are multiple cases. The sudden jump on one of them will draw a notorious amount of suspicion by us and leave them exposed. So, they'll try to extend their voting range to many suspects with the following goals:
a) Not providing a proper direction to lynches.
b) Causing a no-lynch in order to disorganize us even more.
c) Leaving them with a cleaner background when switching votes the following days.
With this plan, they will probably be depending of night kills, so the medic in this case is crucial.
3) Sacrificing one of their members this night. It will give them credibility to push their agendas to secure a mislynch the next day, granted they made a successful kill the night before. I think that this possibility is the less probable to happen.
I feel that we need to watch out for every dangerous behavior present here that we can be facing. In (1) is constant pressure by them trying to get a lynch. In (2), it would be undecided voters and unclear opinions. (3) would be simply trying to find scumslips and contradictions.
Well, those are my thoughts right now. Comments? Oh wait. I forgot how many of you are convinced that I'm mafia, so I'm not expecting a good feedback from all this. sigh.
Sure it's all WIFOM, but let's look past that....
There's nothing about these hypothetical situations that are relevant to us in my eyes. The task is on us. We have to identify one of the 4 scum, and put 5 of our votes on them, which will force the scum to vote for their own or be readily identified.
No use making it more confusing than it is, in a time that is already going to be exceedingly hectic for us.
Now for TKHawkins actions since the night post...
Oh yeah, he already "quit".
All this inactivity, is in my mind, proof we have found two of them at least. Let's lynch one of them and get back on the right track...
TK and Track, we need you to come back and be active, if you are town we can clear you, but that's only if you give us a reason to do so.
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On February 24 2012 03:45 EchelonTee wrote:
All the players in the game currently are pushing towards "lynch TKHawkins and trackd00r. not TK i guess since he might be modkilled but definitely trackd00r. and don't worry that nearly everyone wants trackd00r dead, Mafia is probably busing". Because that worked so well concerning the DYH lynch huh. I feel that trackd00r is the wrong play.
This is what worries me, its seems almost too easy...
I feel everyone can agree that TK and Track are the scummiest in the game right now, but the thought of it being just bad town play still lingers.
We really need them to come and be active.
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On February 24 2012 06:45 EchelonTee wrote:
LMAO, I'm way more aggresive this game than last. I don't post setup posts when I'm scum to specifically avoid them. I don't use WIFOM when I'm scum to avoid them. When I'm scum, I actually play a MORE CAREFUL game. I find it hilarious that you're using out of thread stuff to try and prove things, fully contradictory to your
meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta meta
nonsense.
The difference is that when I buddied to prplhz, I specifically avoided making any comment on his alignment until he was a confirmed townie. Not only is sloosh not a confirmed townie, but me and him had a BACK AND FORTH early game that made people think I was scum. Why the hell would I do that as scum?
You're definitely scum now Mattchew. Thanks for clearing that up for me, and grats for not voting me even though ur making a huge accusation.
##Unvote: Steveling
##Vote: Mattchew
Oh look, we found the 4th scum. How convenient.
Also someone said this before me but I need to reiterate. There is NO WAY that TK is gonna get modkilled, he'll post eventually. He successfully got all the attention off of himself but that cannot stand.
##Vote: TKHawkins
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EBWOP (do this every time apparently)
##Vote: TKHawkins
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This Mattchew bandwagon is cute and all, but quite frankly ET and Sloosh haven't you done enough OMGUS tunnel tunnel town lynches?DYH is the most obvious example, but you both had made cases against MG (which in my mind is why Janaan shot him).
Sure Mattchew's posts are abrasive, but definitely not scummy. Apparently neither of you can distinguish between the two (see DYH). I can not fathom how you would vote for a case like that over someone like TK who has all but admitted to being scum.....
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On February 24 2012 13:28 slOosh wrote:My response to Alderaan: Show nested quote +On February 24 2012 09:41 Alderan wrote:
This Mattchew bandwagon is cute and all, but quite frankly ET and Sloosh haven't you done enough OMGUS tunnel tunnel town lynches?DYH is the most obvious example, but you both had made cases against MG (which in my mind is why Janaan shot him).
Townies don't try reasoning with their top scum reads to stop trying to make bandwagons. Case closed on Alderaan.
TK and Track are my top scum reads. In my mind after that it's either you and ET or Mattchew and Zelblade.
God forbid I don't "go on my gut" and take a second to actually think about the person that I am voting for.
Voting for anyone other than TK right now is a huge mistake in my eyes...
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I don't understand how anyone is not worried that TK is going to post a vote last minute, he is the only agreed upon scum and he needs to die tonight......
Gumshoe do you not agree?
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On February 25 2012 03:58 rgTheSchworz wrote:
TK is a nonfactor now, you know why?
If he is town, he´s getting modkilled. Big deal.5-4 from 6-4 with a lurker. Not much difference.
In fact:
If TK does vote today, he´s scum. It would be better for him to get modkilled as town.
Why? Because his vote, if he is wrong, can help scum tie for votes.
Which is terribad.
I would advise him not to show up, else I vote him.
He's scum.
It's MYLO.
Let's hit the known scum.
I fail to see how this doesn't make the most sense.
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On February 25 2012 04:04 Mattchew wrote:
basically what im saying in my last post.. is townies, look how much you've thought about this upcoming lynch and have tried to not rush to a decision... does Sloosh's gut read steveling and knee-jerk me vote and ET's no case and kneejerk votes send this same vibe to you... no. They are willing to lynch any townie and just take the win for the scum team
You still believe TK is definitely scum correct?
Then why aren't we lynching him?
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If he votes anywhere in the last hour there's probably no way for us to mobilize votes on to him.
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On February 25 2012 04:11 rgTheSchworz wrote:
TK may be bad town.If he votes, he´s scum due to what I´ve written.
WHY WASTE A LYNCH ON KNOWN SCUM WHEN THEY CAN GET MODKILLED.
Alderan-Next day lynch.I count this as a - to your town points.
WE DON'T KNOW HE'S GETTING MODKILLED.
If he makes one vote, and ET and Sloosh's bus on Mattchew goes through the game is over.
Do you realize this?
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EPT
