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Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 4

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slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 02:56 GMT
#425
Quick question. Are you three people or two? You switched from 3rd person to 1st so I'm not too sure of who is posting.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 03:10 GMT
#429
Alright. Looks like I have to eat some more humble pie and consider being at fault of tunnel vision once again.

I will look into DYH's reads before he posts to see if I come to same conclusions.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 03:56 GMT
#435
Tried as hard as I could to look objectively without bias. Skimmed for feel rather than filter / point by point to help avoid confirmation bias.
My thoughts (before I influence myself with DYH's points to see if they match up)
+ Show Spoiler +

Biggest thing is his constant insistence on Zelblade from day 1. Again and again he brings up the name. Is it that the way he does it is suspicious? His liberal usage of the word scummy?

I looked at my filter (for the first time, and it was weird O.o) and tried comparing how we both push for the lynch. I guess I'm very straightforward with my intentions with a clear reminder of $$Vote Zelblade while Simberto drops his name here and there, usually with some other names as to disguise it?


On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote:
Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.

Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment.
This was one of the WIFOM things I talked about in my Simberto town read. I thought he was overly cautious. My objective analysis posted a few minutes before:

On January 31 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote:
Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving.

...

Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear)


Is this a sign of mafia? Being overly cautious?


On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote:
Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.

I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not.



But then again I have this bias where I trust DYH's thoughts, and its hard to distinguish if I like his logic or the fact that he is town I trust (who happens to provide good analysis).
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 15:24 GMT
#450
On January 31 2012 18:21 zelblade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2012 00:21 slOosh wrote:
On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote:
On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote:
Ehh....
On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:
On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote:
i agree with doyouhas
i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so

but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me?
i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1

Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him.

Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS.


I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did)

Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy.


On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:
On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote:
Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.

This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.

Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.

There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.

I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.

I think his team did abandon him.

And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis.

So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this).

If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath.


On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote:
Nice lynch :D

Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.

As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.

Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed.

Remember to
$$Vote Zelblade



When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that.

Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange.
I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary.
All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least)

And with your post that was "written in haste":
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence.
That's a pretty big logical jump you made there.
Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath.
Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence.

Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process.

Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all.

Remember guys
$$Vote Zelblade


I really dont see how that one statement is scummy at all. That post was, as said really bloody confusing and i dont see in any way how it is strange. The 2nd sentance is just an explanation I believed that he had made a mistake. You seriously are reading too much into this and I am in no way trying to push away suspision from zarepath.

As for the 2nd part, I was already thinking that the lynch seemed really easy with basically little to no defence whilst i was sleeping, and I thought that it might be a mislynch due to the lack of defence. When he flipped scum, I simply came to the conclusion that the remaining mafia probably arent very infulential in the thread. Could have typed that out, but as i said, I was in a rush.

I seriously think that you are tunneling me at this point.

I am inclined to believe Bromancipate's objective analysis of my thought process and I have to agree with you.
(I don't know why I was so sold out on you being mafia, even though objectively SS is a much more anti-town poster. Ha, I guess I am a clear case of this)
I am sorry for tunneling, and thank you Probulous for straight up pointing it out. Will be posting on Simberto thoughts soon.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 15:38 GMT
#451
To Simberto:

On January 31 2012 18:31 Simberto wrote:
Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"?
I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you
so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence?

Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is?
It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.

On January 31 2012 20:02 Simberto wrote:
You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react.

How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all.

On January 26 2012 04:00 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote:
Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.

To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.

Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and


I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since
1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly
2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process.


But now .... it's not looking so good.

I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 18:14 GMT
#455
On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:
As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1.
On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote:
Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is?
It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.

Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him.

First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason.
Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2.

As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions.
Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid.

On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote:
Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not.
This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking".

On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote:
And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.

I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.

I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him.
You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker.

DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations.


Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 22:58 GMT
#469
On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote:
As for my scum reads, upon rereading the thread i noticed that there is some pretty hard lurking going on. Now, this might sound like an easy copout, but it is still true.

Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.

I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.

Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.

Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment.

I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that.

Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow.

I agree with you on the lurking. I do believe that Chocolate should speak up as we progress into lategame. There are so many things to talk about and really no reason to remain quiet as a town. Right now, being neutral on people's lists is something that warrants inspection.

However, these are things I don't like.
You don't expound on your reasonings on SacredSystem - WHY does he look clean?
And WHY do you think that Adam is strange on lack of info even though you say in the same post that he has content?

On that note I would like Chocolate to comment on his opinions. Day 3 and I'm still not too sure what you actually think.
For instance, what do you think about Simbarto, SacredSystem and Zelblade?
Please be clear in revealing your thoughts (e.g. I think this person is mafia because of this, and this other guy is town because of this etc.)

Beside your small explanations everytime you vote, you don't really have strong reads on anyone, and most of your posts are comments on other people's plays (without reference to what this says about their alignments).

slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 31 2012 23:36 GMT
#473
Posted while others posted :/

I do not like SacredSystem's style of posting. It is really hard to follow and sometimes gets too aggressive to the point of condescension and disrespectful tone. Perhaps this is null. But also notice how he is always personal in his posts (the prominence of the 2nd person pronoun). He isn't talking to town but talking to people specifically in town. Almost everypost. Dropping the assumption that Zelblade is mafia and the logical framework in which I think a zarepath zelblade sacredsystem balt11t is impossible, I think that SacredSystem is mafia.


With Zelblade, I looked again and tried to forget the apologetic tone on day 1 to be as objective as I can. It is clear that he thinks that SacredSystem is mafia, and has not let go of it from day 2. It isn't a deflection tactic as he isn't redirecting focus on him to SacredSystem when people suspect him. Transparency of posting and intent is town read.
I think Zelblade is slightly town (I am trusting in more experienced players' red such as yours when I drop the apologetic tone of day 1. Doesn't give as much content as I want, but very clearly sets himself against SacredSystem)


I don't like Simberto's WIFOMs and I've been asking him more questions to get a clearer picture of who he is. I don't like how convenient it is that all his mafia-esque actions are explained away by the ingenious mafia puppeteering. Add onto that his response to my "Zarepath typo catch"

On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:
I seriously don't know what that is.

I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it.

So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all.

And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now.
On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote:
Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not.
On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote:
Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago.
I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not?

I honestly thought this was just a typo and wanted to see what he thought, seeing as it can be construed as giving another mafia player credibility (like when Zarepath wanted to claim the original pressure on zelblade).
He gives a WIFOM. Then he says is was an incorrect read on Zarepath. Then he says he doesn't remember.
In the last line he mocks me how stupid it is to make something up to fit the story even though that is exactly what he did.
Right now I think Simbarto is mafia.


I would go for SacredSystem or Simbarto without the need of a Zelblade flip confirmation. Even without a flip, I think there is enough evidence for SacredSystem in the least, if not also Simbarto.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 04:11 GMT
#488
On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something.

Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise.

Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode.

I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him.
##Vote Chocolate



One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them

So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)

I do want to point out that in every single post balt11t is always in a list of people.
A list of lurkers. A list of suspects. Zelblade is also in all of those posts.
So you have to ask, is this a town thing to do? Is he contributing by pressuring / openly sharing all his suspicions on multiple people at once, or is he taking a non-commital stance that he can easily "go with the flow" and not be charged with error?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 04:41 GMT
#490
On February 01 2012 13:05 Adam4167 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying.

After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem

As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons.

Wow that's awesome. I'd go for SacredSystem / Simberto team. Why?

Look at particularly the black lines in the diagram. Who has the least justifiable black lines? (I.e. shouldn't be null unless they were same alignment)

On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote:
chocolate is mafia
simberto is town
I ask him why he thinks Simberto is town. His response.
On January 28 2012 07:31 SacredSystem wrote:
i was some what suspicious of zarepath, just as we all were, for sugessting random lynching,
-being suspicious of him presents good town motives

then zarepath consistently posted excuses and apologies

simberto also figured out that chocolate hasnt contributed anything

now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic
His town read is based off him "figuring out" chocolate has been lurking. Hmm.
On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote:
I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.
No reasoning. "Looks pretty clean". That's not an answer, that's an evasion.


Look at Zelblade / Chocolate team.
On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote:
All right let's do this.
Town
Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion
DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim
Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion
Cosmos- started zarepath lynch
Adam- playing well, contributing
Don't know...
SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis
Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself
Mafia??
Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
"generally shady" also evasive, while "lurker like myself" is somewhat understandable/logical.

On January 31 2012 18:47 zelblade wrote:
Chocolate - No idea due to inactivity, voted rather late for zarepath, could be mafia if SS/simbertoe doesnt flip red.
Very logical, same conclusion that other townies came to, also posts his thoughts (relatively much more than the others posted).

I'm going to be taking a break so if another person could check out the black lines also it would be great.
In any case, I am leaning more on the S & SS team. Voting S over SS since 2 votes already on S and no lynch is the worst case scenario for us (gives them a free night hit while we don't get any new info off flip).

##Vote Simberto
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 07:18 GMT
#492
This is what I was writing, until I started to think up questions to ask the four guys. I stopped and will post what I realized.
+ Show Spoiler +

The thing I absolutely want to see is the four of you (Simberto, SacredSystem, Zelblade and Chocolate) interact with each other (Zelblade and SacredSystem have shown us enough of their relation, but I would like to see more of their relation to Simberto and Chocolate) This I feel will reveal much desired info, as well as put overwhelming pressure on mafia (if there are 2 in the group which I firmly believe) as they have to be extremely careful in their interaction with each other.

So this is like a public debate forum I suppose. I give you questions (in case you don't know what to talk about) and you guys duke it out. The townies in the group should just speak as they normally do. They aren't fabricating lies and positions unlike mafia who have to keep checking their stances to prevent making slip ups.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 07:46 GMT
#494
Ok. This is about Chocolate. Quick skim of his filter demonstrates that he has some experience with mafia and isn't a total newbie playing his first game.
On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote:
All right let's do this.
Town
Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion
DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim
Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion
Cosmos- started zarepath lynch
Adam- playing well, contributing
Don't know...
SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis
Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself
Mafia??
Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.

There are nine players in the game.
He puts five as town, two as null & one as mafia for a total of eight reads (plus himself makes nine).

Remember that there are two mafia left (as if town would forget!) and look at his last line.

He only considers Simberto as mafia after night 2 ends and people start openly suspecting Simberto. It is a very passive stance. Notice how he says it. He "seems". Then notice how he says that this is the best current candidate. Ok. So logically he is saying that Simberto, of whom he does not strongly believe is the mafia, is the best candidate in his mind.

So I ask you guys, what is he thinking going into night 2 without any mafia reads???


With this I am leaning much to a Simberto/Chocolate team that is bussing each other so that the other will stand a better chance. With Simberto on the chopping block he drops his thoughts on zelblade and points out Chocolate.

This does mean that Sacred is town. Perhaps he is town suffering from serious tunnel vision. I don't like this but at least he has some thought (doesn't matter how well/poorly reasoned it may be).

Chocolate, with the 0 reads night 2 is a mafia.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 23:00 GMT
#513
On February 02 2012 07:28 Chocolate wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2012 06:46 Simberto wrote:
Ok, i will go to bed now. I hope i am still alive tomorrow, but if i am not, take a look at what i wrote before with the knowledge that i flipped green.

Also, i think that you need to be a bit more careful in your investigations, it seems to me that some here start an investigation with "he is guilty, how can i prove that?", instead of "is he mafia or town, what can i find out?", which is obviously a pretty bad way to go about things.

Like I said before, I think we probably have some dts who have found peoples' alignments and want to persuade others of their position without actually mentioning that they are dt.


Show nested quote +
On February 01 2012 14:02 SacredSystem wrote:
let me be clear right now my sole focus of suspicion is 100% on zelblade

This doesn't really help because ultimately to guarantee a vote for today you will have to vote for either me or simberto. Of course this works if you want a nolynch

Show nested quote +
On February 01 2012 22:48 zelblade wrote:
And wtf do you mean with the 2nd sentance? Are you saying that one of the people who quickly jumped onto simberto day 3 is the DT? (I am assuming that you are refering to a DT check when you say "investigated".

Yes

And also Simberto has actually been focusing on zellblade for even longer than I thought before http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805&currentpage=5#99

Ok. You are against a no lynch.
Simberto is still the only "best lynch candidate" in your mind as you have said earlier.
Prove your mettle.
Vote Simberto.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 23:04 GMT
#515
On February 02 2012 07:43 SacredSystem wrote:
non voters and voters of choclate can you please switch your vote over to zelblade
if the non voters switch over we can lynch zelblade, if the voters of chocolate switch over we would need 1 more of a lynch
Right now you are the only one who wants to lynch Zelblade, and your actions are anti-town as it pushes us to a no lynch.

On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote:
chocolate is mafia
simberto is town
Either Chocolate or Simberto will be lynched today. Vote one of them or be painted red forever.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 23:53 GMT
#519
On February 02 2012 08:47 SacredSystem wrote:
so zelblade clearly stood up in defense of zarepath and attacked me
he was never suspicious of zarepath at all,
then once zarepath fliped red he acted like he was actually a part of lynching zarepath

also im not sold on chocolate or simberto, if anyone wants to convince me, feel free to do so, but even if they are mafia i still view zelblade as being a safer lynch as he has he has yet to do anything that would convince me hes town

On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote:
chocolate is mafia
simberto is town

No one should have to convince you. You are either lying or have SERIOUS TUNNEL VISION.
It is 4 to lynch ONLY if no one else votes (and 3 modkills happen). That is not likely.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 01 2012 23:54 GMT
#520
EBWOP:

(2 modkills) 1 more vote pushes it up to 5 for lynch.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 02 2012 07:03 GMT
#537
I like a 24hr day but I request implementation after this cycle (this 24hr night, 48 hr day, then 24 night/day cycles).

Sole reason being that this Saturday I will be out and without internet access for the whole day. (48 hr day allows me to stay the first half while 24 doesn't). Unless I can somehow be exempt from post/vote requirement for 1 day, but that doesn't seem fair.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 02 2012 19:46 GMT
#544
Ok I'm talking now and will drive discussion now because staying silent for night is stupid and doesn't help us flush out mafia. If you are waiting for night to almost end before posting so mafia don't shoot good targets, think again. Mafia gonna shoot people they can't lynch while keeping townies with wrong suspicions alive. Right now I think most townies have the wrong suspicions.

I am back on track to lynching Zelblade.

1) Parts of SacredSystem's analysis are actually quite valid if you read them without labeling him as scum in your mind.
On February 02 2012 22:28 SacredSystem wrote:
Important

He only votes for zarepath when slo0sh asks him to do so, throughout his posting history he does not show any suspicion or analysis of zarepath.

However once the vote shows that zarepath was mafia, he states
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote:
Nice lynch :D

Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.

As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.



he says that despite never being on to zarepath

This is true. Only after the whole thing (Zarepath lynch and its certainty) fleshes out does Zelblade add this little post

On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote:
As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia.
On January 29 2012 17:28 zelblade wrote:
Since it seems like Sacred isnt going to get lynched today I will change my vote for now i guess.

##Unvote: SacredSystem
##Vote: Zarepath


Weak and non-commital.


2) Just because the Simberto mislynch is fresh on your minds, don't let it distract you from what was there before.
Remember the case against Zelblade

3) Read upon his day 3 posts in his filter.

Still no substance.

4)
On February 02 2012 22:28 zelblade wrote:
Will be busy for the rest of the night and as such wont be able to post till day starts tomorrow.

Suspicious of both SS and chocolate at this point. Will elaborate on my suspisions tomorrow since I need to go off now, and will not be on a computer for a while.

Assumes he will live this night. This isn't as hard of a tell but definitely isn't null. Just points out his suspicions, and says he will go to sleep. Non-commital.

5) Remember Zelblade's apologetic mild mannered nature? How it's his "first game"?
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2012 16:31 zelblade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2012 06:17 SacredSystem wrote:Now i believe zelblade is mafia, in his attacks on me he is his very defensive and critical of my attacks on zarepath, his analysis felt far more emotional then logical, Capitalized bold letters, double question marks, the use of logic that isnt logical, and this omggg how could you think that defense


My analysis wasnt "emotional". The only capitalized bold letters are a "you", I dont see any double question marks, I dont see you pointing out anything in my analysis that "isnt logical", the "omgggg how could you think that defense" is referring to your OMGUS (in which you attack him because he feels that you are suspisious and for no other reason whatsover) of chocolate. Stop fabricating bullshit that isnt true.

Show nested quote +
Also just the very notion that you furiously defended someone that fliped red insta makes you a prime suspect. Then on top of that after zarepath was proven mafia you acted like you were all on board with it


When the hell have I "furiously defended" him? I had made it clear after the case DYH posted that he seemed scummy and that I was suspisious of him, but moreso on you. Please point out an instance in which I defend him. Cant understand "acted like you were all on board on it".

Show nested quote +
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 28 2012 17:33 zelblade wrote:
On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me.

Show nested quote +
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.


What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie.

As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time.

Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time?

I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia.


notice how he says

I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia

he was mafia but that didnt seem to change your mind


I did say that I prefer lynching you over zarepath because I had a stronger scum read on you, and this was before the DYH case. I am not really sure about that last sentence of yours, but i shall assume (correct me if I am wrong), that you are talking about my "if zarepath = red SS prolly = green" part, I did think so at that point in time but I still am getting a scum feel off you, and as DYH has said;

Show nested quote +
DoYouHas
I feel the need to walk back my defense of SacredSystem a bit. In day2 I was very quick to defend him as he was an early supporter of my analysis. I was looking for things that would let me channel voting towards zarepath. I think that is very clear to everyone. However, after getting zarepath lynched I have looked more closely at the case Adam presented and now Bromancipate. This, on top of the fact that a unanimous vote means support of my analysis and the zarepath lynch are no longer good standards for innocence, makes me retract my earlier defense of SacredSystem. I am going to take advantage of night2 to really look into SacredSystem for myself. Also, I'm going to try and analyze zelblade's day2 posts since we seem to be focusing on his day1 issues a little too much.


I now dont believe that the zarepath flip clears you at all.

Show nested quote +
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote:
Nice lynch :D

Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.

As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.


ja hahah, except you! You were the one defending him


As stated, I wasnt defending him.

Show nested quote +
tldr
adam
zelblade
zelblade seems scared, look how he gave himself away with his aggression on me and his defense of his buddy zarepath

also be careful zelblade, you kill me and i flip green, which i will, you are dead the very next day
vote: zelbalde


I am not scared, and I didnt "give myself away" with my attacks on you and non-exsistent defense of my so-called buddy. Dont worry, you will be lynched next after simberto flips red. And even if you are somehow town (highly highly doubt so), no scum in their right mind would shoot you, since you are doing an excellent job pushing their agenda for them.


Total attitude change. You might say that it is due to constant pressure by SacredSystem.
However, consider this: if you were being pressured (as town by someone you think is mafia), why would you lash out like so? Why would you mock someone's arguments as he does in the last line?
If you know they got nothing on you and they are making stuff up, it won't faze you. It fazed him.

This is my stance, I make it clear.
I'ma get you: Zelblade
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 02 2012 22:47 GMT
#547
On February 03 2012 07:04 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2012 21:39 Chocolate wrote:
If I were mafia I wouldnt post in the thread to tell a teammate, I would just tell him.


A typical response and WIFOM. I say you were looking to rattle the DT into making himself more obvious, so you had confirmation of your shot.

I ask you again, what possible motive could a townie have for even bringing it up?

How does SS flipping red implicate me as mafia?



Sloosh, what has changed your mind about chocolate between this post and this post?

The analysis on Chocolate shows exactly why he is mafia. He has not been doing any work to further this town and he gives one line explanations as to why people are mafia and this is only after he is prodded.


Consider the pool of SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate.
As individuals I would be ok with lynching them all, as I don't think any one of them have done anything particularly pro-town / contributed anything substantial. (sure their interactions with those now dead may indicate certain alignments, but they themselves haven't done anything pro-town)


There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town.
MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.


I did not like Chocolate (moreso than the others) on the basis of a possible Chocolate Simberto pair. Simberto has flipped town, and thus the pair cannot exist. I suspect a different pair, one that includes Zelblade.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 02 2012 23:07 GMT
#549
I really don't want to post more and give the mafia a chance to misdirect.

So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions.

- First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment.

- Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia.

- Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all.

Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts.
In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade.
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