Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 3

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 04 2012 04:12 GMT

#641

These newbie games spring up fairly often. On top of that any mini game will generally have 3-4 1-2 gamers in them so they tend to be very forgiving. Take GM's Normal Mini that just started 2 days ago, 4-5 first timers, a couple of 2-3 timers as well.

Id echo Blazinghands comments as well, just do what you normally as town, when youre scum. Id like to think my scum play looks quite similar to my town play, (as evidence by ET and half the obs thread wanting to hang me

). Thats probably the best way to tackle it. Having a large contrast between your town and scum play just makes you succeptable to meta cases which leads to stupid mislynches.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 03:57 GMT

#652

Yeah, my case against you/jitsu was entirely meta, which made it shitty by default. There wasn't anything specifically I could point to in your filter and say, yep, ulterior motives going on right here.

We think very very similarly. In Newbie Mafia II, we both identified (incorrectly) the exact same scum team, for the same reasons. Our brains must just be wired the same

, so when I see you on what was a painfully obvious (to me at least) mislynch, I was instantly suspicious.

However, every time I put a case together, it basically boiled down to "I really have nothing much else... BUT JUST TRUST ME GUYZ". Something told me that wasn't going to work, so I set out to catch your teammate, drag this game as close to LyLo as I could, and then id only have to influence 1-2 people with my crappy meta case, instead of 5-6.

Now that I've played in 5 games, I qualify to apply for co-hosting, and eventually get my hosting wings. I'm really interested in getting some newbie games rolling, I find them far more interesting (far less ego -__-) and growing this community can only be a good thing. Hopefully that can happen before all of you no longer qualify to play in them!

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 04:53 GMT

#656

I always love feedback, even if it is bashing how horrible I was :D

I don't think anyone is going to come out bragging about this one, we got exceptionally lucky with our blues.

My self-analysis:
My early play was pretty average. I joined the game late, stubbornly defied the most town people, tunneled a townie for 24 hours, refused to vote for a scum.

Somehow, through all of that, I managed to get myself confirmed as a townie.

Probably my biggest regret was not opposing the Simberto lynch louder, but my confidence was pretty down after defending Zarepath and tunneling Sacred, so I really wasn't sure of any of my reads, at that point.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 04:59 GMT

#657

Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process?

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 05:18 GMT

#662

Generally we just randomly vote someone and gauge the reaction of them and others, or start off by getting everyone's stances on 'lynch all lurkers', 'lynch all liars' ect

It really doesn't take much more then 12 hours for one of the games here to leave the random vote stage, and progress into actual behavioral analysis. The real analysis comes out on N1 or D2, since you also have D1's vote to work with, and possibly some night kills.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 05:22 GMT

#665

Yeah, the blue meta has evolved somewhat here on TL. Originally, blues would look a lot like scum. They'd contribute only as often as required, largely keep their heads down and try to get as many night actions off as possible before death.

Now, the blue meta is to look as pro-town as possible, draw medic protection, and the scum will be forced to leave you alone, else they run into a medic prot. Being loud and aggressive is a great way to display how 'fearless' you are, and obviously you're only this fearless because you've got nothing to lose (ie green), when really you're blue.

Take this game for example. The Scum avoided Sloosh like he had the plague, for fear of having another shot blocked. If they'd just blown him away N1, as they'd discussed in the QT, this game would have gone down a VERY different path.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 05:30 GMT

#668

Yeah, I was like 'luuuuul prob is cop'.

Id have dawdled on that information for probably a good 12-24 hours, milled around like I was confused a bit, then launched into an all out attack on sheth.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 05:34 GMT

#671

Well that's always on the cards, but as incognito reaffirmed to me after N1, town cred is fickle.

You can have 1 good thing on your resume (surviving a night hit), but if everything else says scum and/or useless, you're probably dead anyway. I wasn't 100% sold on DoYouHas' innocence until Zarepath flipped, then the idea of blocking a shot, to lead a wagon against a teammate became so convoluted... it had to be false.

The opportunity cost of getting one of your members 'town cred' vs removing a possible blue + a loud townie and by default, giving you more voting power (4/12 instead of 4/13) in this game, is just too good to pass up. Its just really not worth it unless you're trying to get real fancy.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 05:45 GMT

#673

The sooner you get to Lylo the better. Its such a dangerous position, because if even ONE townie vote is in the wrong place, boom, game over. Every single townie needs to be on the same page heading into Lylo, otherwise mafia take it. Thus, getting there as fast as possible will give the town as little to work with as possible. This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:00 GMT

#677

Personally, I loathe the no-lynch. Probably partly because ive never even been close to getting lynched myself, but also because I love information.

Day 1 is almost universally a mislynch. That means you can be sure that 50-75% of the scum team are on the vote. I am perfectly fine with trading that townie (who obviously did something... not smart) to heavily narrow down the scum suspects.

Id probably never try and force a no-lynch as a townie. It did cross my mind with Simberto, but what would that lead to?
The next day, you'd all just want to kill him again, regardless of what he said with his additional 72 hours of life, and you'd also be less likely to listen to me, now that I've stalled the game for 72 hours and cost the town a townie.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:05 GMT

#678

On February 10 2012 14:53 DoYouHas wrote:
No lynch is a perfectly fine move if you get to the end of the day and are not confident in any of your reads, and the whole town feels similarly.

I've never been in a situation where people aren't so polarized that they wanted at least one person dead on day one.

Heck, I wanted like 3 people in this game dead the second i stepped into it.

Bromancipate, Balt11t and SacredSystem were all people I would have thrown my vote on without a second thought.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:25 GMT

#683

Lots of people focus on the position someone joined a vote wagon. Personally I think that's a waste of time, since as scum I'm just as likely to be #1 on the vote as i am to be #8.

I like to group people. I think I made that obvious with my paint skills. Ill see 8 people on a lynch. Generally I can instantly knock out 2 or 3 because one of them is me, 2 of them are posting so pro-town that they just wouldn't be mafia. From there I have 5 names, with the assumption that either 2-3 of them are scum. Then I look at how those 5 interact with each other. Who's ignoring each other too much? new mafia especially are very hesitant to even quote one of their partners writing, even if there's nothing scummy about it.

Take Zarepath for example. Hes quoted every single person in the entire game... except 4 people. One of them is me, since I joined late, and the other 3? yep... red. This really should have tipped me off earlier, but I was so focused on sacred.

Balt really doesn't have much of a filter to go through at all.

Chocolate - again same as zarepath. Not a single quote of the other scum, just everyone else.

Finally Bromancipate - quotes everyone in the entire game multiple times... except 3 people.

Do a quick scroll-through of their filters yourself. Its disgustingly accurate. We could have nailed the entire scum team on D2.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:27 GMT

#684

On February 10 2012 15:24 slOosh wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful.

I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source).

Bingo. You got it. There was no cavalry coming to stop that mess. It would have been D2 all over again. The entire town wants someone dead, me standing there saying "Really?" and getting ignored haha

The fastest option was to let him die (sorry!), and get everyone refocused.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:37 GMT

#686

Its entirely subconscious. They don't want their scummy partners work read any more then it has to be, so quoting it would submit it to re-evaluation.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:49 GMT

#689

You really only need to do it to one scum whos not lurking. A quick examination of zarepaths filter after he flipped would have given you 4 names:
Adam
Balt11t
Chocolate
Bromancipate

Then you overlay that on say my filter, and it doesn't work.

So you do it to the next loudest person - Bromancipate:
Balt11t
Chocolate
Zarepath

You'll narrow it down pretty quickly to 4-5 names and 4 scum in there. Game is solved, maybe one townie has to die for the cause.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:53 GMT

#690

Yeah, I was trying to push chocolate, but everyone seemed pretty dead-set on simberto.

I thought for sure chocolate was a deadman after sloosh posted that great analysis and then BAM, his vote goes on simberto.

O_o doesn't do justice to the look I had on my face at that point.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 06:58 GMT

#693

I doubt it'd work with more seasoned scum, but a handy tool if you happen to lynch a new scum with a big post history.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 10 2012 07:07 GMT

#694

On February 10 2012 15:57 Probulous wrote:

I purposely avoided getting involved in that. I was trying my best to keep chocolate alive just a little longer. I also knew if I said anything about Simberto the comparison would be way too obvious. It is really hard playing as mafia, I don't know how you did it so well in your last game. Maybe I need a coach next time I role scum.

Scum is fun for me, I'd say mafia goon would be my favorite role.

I had an amazing team in that game, we were on IRC 12 hours a day, plotting, planning, checking posts.

Plus the town never drew me into the conversation and forced me to take a stance on anything. By the end of day 3, no one had a clue what my reads were, except that id written analysis on 3 dead townies.

That's why I kept dragging you back in where I could.

Adam4167

Australia1426 Posts

February 11 2012 01:19 GMT

#705

Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.

The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.

The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team.

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