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On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote:
Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case.
Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment.
Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
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EBWOP:
That was from me
/Probulous
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On January 31 2012 00:39 slOosh wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote:Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town- MG – claimed Vig so we will see
- sl0osh – Should be obvious but I can post analysis if required
- Adam4167 – Has been aggressive and rightly called out Simberto for some illogical inconsistencies. He was the only one pushing a different lynch than zarepath which may initially seem mafia-driven except that it was clear zarepath was going to die anyway. He wasn’t sure and stuck to his guns. He played the same way in the first Newbie game and I see nothing to suggest he is mafia
Now to the important stuff SCUMSacredSystemBefore I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with Show nested quote + i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating Show nested quote + i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me
even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town
and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linkyHow is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Show nested quote + and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise
you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town
and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDRSacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem/Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this?
One that you make when you are reading a thread for the first time. DYH is town because no-one claimed a counter hit. His posting has been pretty good but in my reading of the thread he didn't jump out at me as clearly town or scum. Same for Cosmos. I was looking for scum (I am still am) hence my very short bit about who is town. You are right that I missed him but how does that make me scum? I am not pushing for his lynch, or casting doubt on him. I just straight up missed him 
2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch.
zarepath - 11
DoYouHas
CosmosXAM
slOosh
SacredSystem
MidnightGladius
zelblade
Chocolate
Bromancipate
Simberto
Adam4167
balt11t
On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion.
On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks.
I guess Jitsu can explain this. I admit it looks bad but this is what happens when we you don't present and push our case. Hence my case on SS. I want him lynched. I will no longer allow the brotherhood to be smeared by weak voting.
3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch.
Explained
4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem.
Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended.
This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th.
(This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this).
This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points.
I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here.
Well I disagree that zelblade is mafia but it seems I am in the minority here. I find it highly ironic that he gets painted red for pushing an SS lynch when he was called out originally for not presenting his reads. Besides as I explained to Sim just because two people are having an argument does not mean that they are on opposite teams. Zel and SS could be both mafia or both town (not likely) or one town and one mafia (more likely).
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On January 31 2012 01:51 slOosh wrote:
(Please don't misconstrue that last line as confirmation bias. I don't think he is scum, but I do think he is worth looking into)
Further general readings:
I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more.
Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot.
How does this not explain zelblade's actions?
I'll take a piece from the analysis: Show nested quote +How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement.
So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone.
Show nested quote + Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell. I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved.
Why do you give him a break for being a noob but not zelblade? Hell zelblade straight up said he was newb and tried to apologise for it and you used that against him. As you say this is a newbie game so you must expect people to make mistakes like that but for me Zelblade is pushing a case when asked to. SS was jumping around the place without actually trying to convince anyone to follow him. His actions say "Cast a bit of doubt here, throw some suspicion there. We can always come back and use it later."
Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions. Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence.
Gah, he is not transparent. He is simply testing the waters. He never mentioned Chocolate until Chocolate mentioned him. Then suddenly Chocolate is mafia? No thinking about it, no analysis, no real reasoning, just a straight up OMGUS. Again, he doesn't have to defend himself from this. He isn't presenting a case. I don't see why you would give him the benefit of the doubt and no-one else.
Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain.
Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going.
I am not trying to be argumentative. I want to understand why you are giving SS such lee way?
/Probulous
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Town
Bromancipate
DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus.
sl0osh
Adam4167 - Explained previously
MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed.
Null
Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this.
CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active.
Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more.
Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked.
Mafia
SacredSystem
balt11t, probably dead
That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh?
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Alrighty, it is morning here in Aus. Time to find some mafia.
Honestly this Simberto thing is a little hard to understand. He is a hard read because some of his defence is logical. I will take a closer look into his posting.
Right now we have a few targets and little direction and it has made it difficult for me to determine who suspects who. So here is my summary of what people think of other's alignment.
People who think
Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
- sl0osh?
Simberto is scum- Adam4167
- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh?
- Zelblade
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh?
Chocolate is scum
DoYouhas is scum
I don't see anyone actively pushing for a sl0osh, Bromancipate, Cosmos or Adam lynch. Please correct me if I am wrong or I am missing something. Our target for this lynch must come from those top three otherwise we risk splitting the vote. This also helps us determine people's motivations for voting.
I will be looking into both Simberto and Chocolate, I don't think zelblade is scum. The problem I have is that a zelblade lynch gives us the most information. I believe SS is scum and a townie zelblade flip would help confirm this in others minds. Simberto has also been pushing a zeblade lynch and is still pushing that wagon, so a zelblade flip would help us with him.
I don't want to lynch a townie so I will not be voting for zelblade. Chocolate is an interesting one but a zelblade, SS or Simberto lynch doesn't really tell us anything about him, nor does a Chocolate lynch tells us much about the others. Yes Sim has recently been pushing a Chocolate lynch but he has been pushing zelblade harder. Like I said I will look into Chocolate's posting but for now a lynch of one of the top three gives us more info.
DoYouHas was only placed under suspicion by SacredSystem(linky) so I won't consider him a candidate.
So I have this conundrum where the one person on the list that looks town to me would give me the most information if he flipped. This is why I want others to make their intentions clear.
In short, please let me know if I am missing some information, or have misread your "reads". sl0osh, you in particular need to make yourself clear.
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote:
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
Adam, can you please give me your scum reads. From your filter it seems that you have, me (Bromancipate), Zelblade, SacredSystem, Chocolate and Simberto. That's a lot of scum! I drew up the previous list based on my reading of your more recent posts, but I can't be sure if it is correct.
Thanks!
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Right, well I will take him off the list then. I read this
now i dont think adam is mafia, he initiated the attack, which is fine, what i am more concerned about are those that just hoped on board, zelbade, zarepath and later doyouhas.
As implying DYH is the same as Zelblade and Zarepath, both of which you think are scum. Who do you think are the remaining mafia?
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Updated:
People who think
Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
Simberto is scum- Adam4167
- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh
- Zelblade
- Chocolate
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh
Chocolate is scum
Thanks for clarifying sl0osh.
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On February 01 2012 09:00 DoYouHas wrote:
Bromancipate, while it is true that a zelblade lynch would give us information, a Simberto lynch also gives us quite a bit of information as well. If Simberto flips red, it all but confirms zelblade as town (unless Simberto is operating a long con bussing scheme). Also, it would be pretty strong evidence for narrowing our search down to either SacredSystem or Chocolate for day4. If he flips green (unlikely as I see it), it broadens our view of possible scum again, which is something I would like to know I need to do earlier rather than later. But look past all this to the endgame. We are 7 town against 2 scum. In order to win this game mafia are going to have to get 3 mislynches as well as not have their hit stopped the next two nights. This tells me that one of the only real ways that mafia have to win this game is by taking control of the days. Who among the remaining players really have the potential to take that kind of control? Myself, Bromancipate, sl0osh, Simberto, and maybe Adam. So not only do I think that I have made a strong enough case to get Simberto lynched on its own merit, but we would be safeguarding our endgame by lynching him.
I am still making up my mind on Simberto. As you say he is one of us who is actively contributing.
On February 01 2012 09:07 Adam4167 wrote:Posting lists is scummy prob, you should know that  Seriously though, I feel like of those 5 names I am mentioning, the last 2 scum are in there. Chocolate looks bad. He spends all of day 1 soft defending zarepath, jumps on the zarepath vote quite late on day 2 (hes vote number 7 with 5 required to lynch), hes nigh on inactive and when he shows up he doesn't push any cases or reads. Zelblade is an interesting case. I know people hate it when this gets said, but flipping him would provide a wealth of info. He was also fairly late on the Zarepath vote on day 2, after trying to push my case on SacredSystem. Jury is still out here, Id probably keep him alive another day while we lynch someone else and gather more information. SacredSystem I eased up on a while ago. Hes another one who can stay around while we hang someone else. Bromancipate: All I really said for you was that your post-count was lacking, but you're busy, so I get that. That and jitsu never followed up on something he said. He did however cast suspicion onto balt11t at the end of night 1 when not many people were really focused on him, so ill look elsewhere for mafia for now. Simberto I've never called scum. I just said his postcount dropping off compared to day 1 was odd. Ill put some thoughts together on him soon. At this point, I'm interested in a Chocolate lynch, and ill make my mind up on Simberto sometime in the next few hours after i finish reading.
Lists are only scummy if they have no purpose and you provide nothing else. There is a very clear reason for mine, I want a succesful lynch and that requires people being aware of others intentions. We will have a real problem if we don't narrow our lynch candidates to two or at most three. Chocolate is certainly not helping himself but it is hard to tell whether he is in a similar boat to zelblade, just not sure how to post. His lurking, voting patterns and his determination to respond only when required is really what is making him look bad. He can redeem himself if he contributes as we have bigger fish to fry. SS however is still responding in an aggressive manner to being questioned and has subsequently disappeared.
My updated list is spoilered for those interested
+ Show Spoiler +People who think Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
Simberto is scum- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh
- Zelblade
- Chocolate
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh
Chocolate is scum
Unfortunately people I have to go now. I have a black tie dinner tonight for work so I won't be able to log on until a similar time tomorrow morning. I will have finalised my position on Simberto by then and will post what I have. In the meantime Jistu may appear, I haven't heard much from him.
Good luck guys, all it takes is two more succesfull lynches and the game is ours.
/Probulous
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We still feel strongly about SacredSystem, and will use our current lynch on him, as for right now. Simberto is still borderline for us; I still feel null, Probu feels scum. Since he is away for the time being, I will place our vote on SS until I can discuss with him both of our reads. If it gets closer and I still haven't heard, I'll have to make the choice whether to change or not. I still urge everyone to at least re-read SS, as Probu and I both have a moderately strong scum tell on that.
Also, still reading and analyzing current events.
@Cosmas, why do I get this feeling that you absolutely hate committing to anything in this game? You're last post makes me feel like you want to show initiative that you are being a townie, yet don't want any responsibility of a miss-lynch. Is it just me, or is anyone else reading that? Do cat-foot around. You seem so wishy-washy.
RE: Adam
I just caught that you asked me about not pressuring on MG harder. I'd like to respond to that now. The reason I pressure is to gain information not only from that person, but people around that person as well. As well, since I was busy at that time, I felt the thread was going in a different direction when I returned from class after I had spoken at Midnight, and didn't feel bringing it back to cockfighting would have been positive town atmosphere. Concentration had already turned to another source, and I felt that only going back would have damaged town atmosphere more than helping it.
Beyond that, since my aggression was based off of a poorly written, miss-interpreted post, I didn't have anything else to attack with in that regard anyway.
I believe this is the instance you are talking about.
Does that potentially clear it up?
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If you aren't trying to insinuate anything, why are you going to look closer at me?
Besides, I would encourage you to look at every game I ever played. Maybe you could draw the conclusion that I like to play aggresive, generally speaking, if time constraints allow it.
Dream/Qatol, is there the possibility of an updated, official vote count?
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Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game 
We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow.
Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game.
If you don't agree, convince me otherwise.
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On February 03 2012 08:07 slOosh wrote:
I really don't want to post more and give the mafia a chance to misdirect.
So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions.
- First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment.
- Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia.
- Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all.
Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts.
In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade.
Alright I think I know where you are going with this and felt I should respond. Simberto's scum reads were Chocolate and myself. Like I said above, Chocolate looks bad but we have most of town analysing his play hence I will look into others players in the off chance Chocolate is town. We can't afford to lynch Chocolate and then find out he is just a really scummy townie whilst when you look at Cosmos he looks just as bad. So for now I will leave Chocolate to you guys whilst I look elsewere.
As for his case on me, would you like me to respond to it? I am town so I don't need to convince myself otherwise. No-one has brought it up so I assume that others realise I have been pushing a town agenda. I have been and am always looking for scum, there is no point me defending myself against accusations that no-one believes. So again, would you like me to defend myself against his case?
Thirdly, what is with the change of heart? You stated earlier that "Ok I'm talking now and will drive discussion now because staying silent for night is stupid and doesn't help us flush out mafia. " but now you won't tell us what you are thinking but instead insinuate that you think that Simberto was onto something which could only mean that you think I am scum. So if that is the case, come out and say it.
Like I said earlier, I won't defend myself against cases that look flimsy to me and are just a distraction for town. But if you geniunely feel that I am scum then I will explain my actions.
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On February 03 2012 08:12 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise. Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened.
Simple really, a matter of my defense of zelblade and a process of elimination. Jitsu has come round to my view that whilst his play is really newb, it looks like town newb. We have to make a decision and that is the one we are making. Its not easy with us living on other sides of the globe so we don't really get to have long discussions on our reads. We just have to trust each other's judgement. Besides, when placed against Cosmos and Chocolate he looks the most town of them all.
Does that answer your question?
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Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum.
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On February 03 2012 09:48 CosmosXAM wrote:
I don't see why I am suddenly a target again, but I feel a zelblade lynch would be best at this point simply based on the options left. Bromancipate bugs me but being a hydra is a pain to try and read and study, so I am not sure who is talking when or what their specific opinions are at that time. A team between the two is plausible but we can only really wait until one of them dies to make an astute conclusion about that.
I have sent my response to sl0osh to Jitsu to make sure he agrees with what I am saying. I guess as a hydra we should try and make a united appearance. The problem is that doing this delays when we can respond and makes us look bad. That is why I think it is better that I post my opinions immediately. I am sure it can be a little confusing but at least it is transparent. Since you guys have complained I will try and get Jitsu's approval for stuff before we post just don't expect immediate answers.
As for you being a target, you are simply a target for my analysis. I believe there is a mafia between you and Chocolate and everyone is looking at Chocolate. Hence my look at your filter.
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Alright I have read your recent posts sl0osh but this is my defense of your earlier case. I will respond to the latest ones after this.
On February 03 2012 09:31 slOosh wrote:Ok I'll come out and just say it. All the cards on the table. I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade. I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning. Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs. Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active. The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one. Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote:
There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town.
MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum.
Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not.
Hence why I disregarded it as an idea.
First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem.
I stand by this. I think Zelblade is town and SS is mafia. It is WIFOM in its simplest form. I don't know if SS and Zelblade are town, and you don't know that I am town. There could be a mafia amonst us, or not. So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. But what if zelblade is town. Then maybe I am a townie targeting who I think is mafia.
Now, this hinges on what you believe zelblade alignment is. But bare in mind, even if Zeblade flips mafia that does not mean I am mafia and SS is town. Sure it is more evidence but that is all. This thinking that simply because I defended someone who turns out to be scum makes me scum is wrong. Everyone can make mistakes.
This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing.
So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM.
Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:
Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. - Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again. - Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell". - More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs.
Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well.
I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him.
Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade?
I want us to take a step back and think big picture.
Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched).
I know you guys hate the hydra thing but I really wasn't here for that. Maybe Jitsu can explain it. Even so there were others who jumped on that wagon as well.
He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious.
See above.
Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity).
Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement.
He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work.
What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible.
Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead?
Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. 
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On February 03 2012 10:57 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 09:53 Bromancipate wrote:
Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum. My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you. I want to make that clear right now. I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell"). As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia.
I will take another look at Zelblade. I do find it weird that he hasn't responded to my defense of him. In fact he hasn't responded to me at all. As for the others, I am much more suspicious of Chocolate than Cosmos but I want to rule out us ignoring someone who hasn't contributed a ton, hence why he is still on my reading list.
Sorry guys I forgot to do the sign thing.
/Probulous
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On February 03 2012 11:07 slOosh wrote:
We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario:
night ends: 5 town 2 mafia
mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia
night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting.
I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more.
Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind.
DoYouHas is town.
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EPT
