I wouldn't object to the removal of PMs.
Hammer Mini Mafia
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
I wouldn't object to the removal of PMs. | ||
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With that said. We only need +2. So hurry up and /in already! Yes I am talking to you, random TL mafia lurker! | ||
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On January 20 2012 13:36 jaybrundage wrote: He went /in then /out then back /in again we need One more "That's what she said." | ||
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Getting pumped! | ||
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On January 24 2012 11:16 prplhz wrote: Maybe if the bot is coming up within a day we can start now and then we can figure this instant majority stuff out on our own for the first day? We're all relatively educated human beings. Sorry. I am aching to start as soon as possible. Yeah, I am okay with this as well. Unless RoL has some express reason for wanting the bot from the beginning. We could even do a slightly extended Day 1. Just a thought though. | ||
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On January 25 2012 09:29 GreYMisT wrote: Yea I had to drop out guys, My schedual just got more busy, and I won't be able to give this game the attention it deserves. This is the opposite of manning up! + Show Spoiler + No worries though. School be crazy for me right now as well. | ||
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On January 26 2012 12:10 MeatlessTaco wrote: Townies, we need a plan. The vote system could cause us problems if we don't stick together. We'll need to ascertain what vote-rigging abilities the scum have, to do this we need a circle of trust. We'll all trade votes in a circle instead of doing it haphazardly. Any vote manipulation by the scum will result in merciless lynching. How do we know mafia have any abilities at all? On January 26 2012 12:24 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Alright, let's keep it simple and trade one vote each night to the person below us on the list, and last person gives one VP to the top person? That way we all stay at 3 and everything's fair. I also like this idea. Mafia is forced to play our game. On January 26 2012 13:26 MeatlessTaco wrote: If we have no mayor to elect or other policy discussions, what else can we do to for the next 70 hours? 1. Scum hunt of course! ![]() 2. Keep tabs on lurkers. | ||
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On January 26 2012 18:28 prplhz wrote: Everybody should give away as many votes as they can every day. This is a good idea because it will prevent scum from eliminating voting power through night kills, and voting power will only get eliminated through the lynch which is more likely to hit scum than night kills. So are you saying we should all circle trade 2 votes instead of just 1 tonight? So essentially we will only lose 1 vote to a night kill instead of 2? Right now scum has 12 votes. That is over half of what is needed for majority. There will be a certain breaking point in which if all mafia survived for awhile, then they could essentially be the majority in themselves and start circle trading between each other ensuring a scum win. There are variables that play into this scenario: how many votes lost during lynches, how many votes lost during night kills, and if there are any power roles with with vote changing abilities.. I agree that the more votes in circulation for town is better, but we have to be careful. Mafia can use this method to their advantage. Lets say we have players(# of votes): A(3) <---Mafia B(3) <---Town C(3) <---Town D(3) <---Town E(3) <---Mafia F(3) <---Town Okay, then night comes. A Gets 2 votes from F, Trades 2 votes to B <---Mafia B Gets 2 votes from A, Trades 2 votes to C <---Town C Gets 2 votes from B, Trades 2 votes to D <---Town D Gets 2 votes from C, Trades 2 votes to E <---Town E Gets 2 votes from D, Trades 2 votes to F <---Mafia F Gets 2 votes from E, Trades 2 votes to A <---Town Then day comes. Lets say mafia kill Player F. His trade goes through to Player A, but Player E's trade fails. A(3) <---Mafia B(3) <---Town C(3) <---Town D(3) <---Town E(5) <---Mafia F(1) <---Dead 1 vote is lost. Now mafia has more influence. If we circle traded just 1 vote then it would be. A(3) <---Mafia B(3) <---Town C(3) <---Town D(3) <---Town E(4) <---Mafia F(2) <---Dead 2 votes are lost. Mafia stills has more influence, but not as much as the case above. Pros and cons to both methods I would say. On one hand we have more votes in circulation which is good for town and a possible mafia with more influence. On the other hand we have less votes in circulation which is bad for town and a possible mafia with a little less influence. This also leads to a lot of WIFOM on the person who gets more votes after the night kill. WIFOM on whether or not they are possible mafia. [sarcasm] Or we could just give all our votes to Palmar and cross our fingers! ![]() | ||
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The 3 decent ideas so a far are: 1. Circle trade 1 vote to the person below you. 2. Circle trade all but 1 vote to the person below you. 3. Everyone posts in this thread who they will trade their vote(s) to during the night. All of these ideas have pros and cons, but the worst thing for town right now is not to be in agreement be the end of the day. If we are split or have wild cards like Palmar, then we don't have the complete transparency we need for these systems to be effective. Personally I think number 1 is the best, most town-favored option. I am always open to more discussion and more ideas. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + I understand you are being crazy right now to tests people reactions and stir up a bit of commotion. @MeatlessTaco What is your reason for voting up risk.nuke? Also why do you think Palmar is scum? Voting people up with no reasoning is not good. @LSB I am glad you are in agreement with the circle trading plan, but you need to read the rules a bit more carefully. Wrong On January 27 2012 09:31 LSB wrote: 3. You can only give one vote to one player. Correct On January 16 2012 07:16 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: 1. Every player starts the game with 3 Voting Power, VP, or Votes. During the nightphase a player must give away at least ONE of their votes to ONE other player, who gets the use of those votes in the future. A player can not give away all of their votes.PM the hosts to give away your votes. Good idea, but this isn't correct. On January 27 2012 09:31 LSB wrote: In addition, there will be something called the Self Correcting Fixing Mechanisms Each day afterwards, votes will be adjusted so that everyone will end up with 3 votes the day after. Because KP is set at 1, at the end of every nights there will be one person with 4 votes, and one person with 2 votes (as their trades to the killed person will be canceled). For the next night, the person with the 4 votes and the person with the two votes will be removed from the circle and they will trade votes. The person with the 4 votes will give the other 2 votes, and the person with 2 votes will give the other 1 vote, leaving each of them with 3. + Show Spoiler [Example] + DAY 1: A:3 B:3 C:3 D:3 E:3 F:3 A->B 1 vote B->C 1 vote C->D 1 vote D->E 1 vote E->F 1 vote F gets killed DAY 2: A:2 B:3 C:3 D:3 E:4 A->E 1 vote E->A 2 votes B->C 1 vote C->D 1vote D->A 1 vote Here is the rule how deaths affect trading. On January 16 2012 07:16 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: 4. If the one you gave votes to died during the night, then the trade fail and you keep your votes. If you die during the night, then any final attempt to trade away your votes is still resolved. Any other votes you carry at the time of death are lost. Player A will have 3 votes after the night, assuming Player F traded properly. The only imbalance after the day will be Player E since his trade will not go through to Player F, thus Player E will have 4 votes. 2 votes are lost due to Player F's death. This means there will be an imbalance after N1. We may be able to use your self correcting plan after two nights pass. On January 27 2012 09:31 LSB wrote: The self-correcting mechanism has a ‘flaw’ though, in the above example, if person A dies night two, mafia will net an ‘extra’ vote. BUT: this isn’t a real flaw. It’s actually is an Advantage. First of all, it will strongly green E as a townie. Second of all, the person with the four votes could be protected by the doctor / slightly greened during the day before he dies. Mafia is left with a choice. Either to give us information, or to give up a vote, or to keep everything the same. All of which at least break even for town. This is WIFOM. We can't know if Player E is a townie or mafia. I made a post about how this circle trading will work. The advantages and disadvantages of trade just 1 vote or more than 1 vote. I cover the WIFOM aspect as well. @Everyone I have another idea for trading votes. I want to bounce it off you guys to see what you think. The main idea behind the circle trading system is to keep an even spread of votes across all players. They way we have it setup, the mafia will get to pick and choose who they want to give more vote(s), either townie or fellow mafia. One way to kind of keep the mafia on their toes is to split up everyone into 5 groups of 3. Then during the night you choose at random who you would like to give vote(s) too. My thinking behind this is that it gives mafia less information as to where votes in particular are going. Randomness though is a double edged sword. This can either hurt town or hurt mafia. So, it seems almost everyone is on board with the 1 vote circle trade system. I think this is the best way to minimize mafia tampering and vote gaining. If anything it severely stifles their ability to accrue a mass amount of votes over the course of one night, which is a possibility if some mafia seems particularly pro-town to the majority of people. My FoS is on MeatlessTaco right now. | ||
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On January 27 2012 13:13 LSB wrote: Let me guess, you'd determine these groups of 3 'randomly'? Honestly I don't care how the groups are split up. The groups don't even have to be a size of 3. I am completely open to suggestions on the technicalities of this idea. I was more focused on the main purpose of the concept. To limit the mafia's ability to choose who gets votes during a night kill. Thinking about this more and more I am finding holes in the plan. A group with 2 mafia could kill the inno and trade votes between themselves. They would also get the vote from the inno. This leads to a bunch more WIFOM. If we make the groups larger though, lets say 3 groups of 5, then randomness starts to favor town more as long as all four mafia aren't in one group. There is a lot to this idea that needs to be thought through. That is why I hoping for some feedback and/or for people to find glaring flaws in it. I am just spit balling to open up town's options. Anything to limit mafias control of the votes is good for town. | ||
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On January 27 2012 15:37 MeatlessTaco wrote: It is the same reason as the two people directly above me who voted for him. Does anyone else here any bleating going on? | ||
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wow I shouldn't type so late at night. fail on my part haha. | ||
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On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: I vote D1 we circle jerk and see what happens. Just saying "oh you know, there will be people who don't want to follow the plan" the way LSB did excuses that kind of behavior - the plan doesn't work unless we all agree to it. If we can't come to a consensus, then we're all going to just have to do whatever the fuck, and I already know where my votes are going in the event that happens. Thanks for repeating what I already said bro. On January 27 2012 02:20 Paperscraps wrote: One thing that needs to happen before this day ends, is unanimous agreement on a trading system. The 3 decent ideas so a far are: 1. Circle trade 1 vote to the person below you. 2. Circle trade all but 1 vote to the person below you. 3. Everyone posts in this thread who they will trade their vote(s) to during the night. All of these ideas have pros and cons, but the worst thing for town right now is not to be in agreement be the end of the day. If we are split or have wild cards like Palmar, then we don't have the complete transparency we need for these systems to be effective. Personally I think number 1 is the best, most town-favored option. I am always open to more discussion and more ideas. On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: Now, the lynch. ##Vote: Paperscraps This set off alarm bells. My main problem is that he doesn't sound like someone with a town read on Palmar. He sounds like someone who already knows Palmar's alignment is town. I'm going to be honest - I'm also starting to think Palmar is town, but it's not based on a belief that I think he's acting scummy to test reactions. It could be, but that's not why. I think Palmar is town based almost exclusively on the fact that scummy players like Paperscraps are defending the way he's playing. Did I say Palmar is town? nope Did I say he sounds like town? negative Does asking a player to give some real feedback make me scummy? nope Are you basing your read on a player based completely off another players thoughts/questions? Yes On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: In the first paragraph he outlines a needlessly convoluted plan with the main goal of "keeping the mafia on their toes" by "randomly choosing" who votes go to within smaller groups of townies. But in the second paragraph, he makes sure to agree with the circlejerk plan. Why? If you support the circle-voting plan then why are you coming up with more options? The day is half over bro, it's time to start thinkin about that LYNCH. Apparently giving people who are against the circle trading plan more options is a bad thing..... /sarcasm On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: But not your vote. Why? Whether we've come to a consensus on how to deal with the votes or not, we still have to lynch someone today. That starts with votes. Now, I agree that MeatlessTaco doesn't look great with his lack of reasoning for his votes and blatant sheeping, but lynch? Not to mention the fact that you're in favor of this circlejerk plan...but... So, me not voting, because I am weighing options between other people I suspect to be scum, makes me scummy? On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: It was MeatlessTaco's idea! He was the first to suggest it! If it's "the best option", then why are you the most interested in lynching the person who brought it up first? My guess? He doesn't even realize that MT brought it up first. He's just looking for the easiest target, and right now that's someone who suspects Palmar and voted risk.nuke for no reason. Just because he has a good idea doesn't make him pro-town. My FoS is on him because of the sheeping. On January 27 2012 16:45 VisceraEyes wrote: Paperscraps is scum Am I the only one going wtf? at this entire post. I guess I have to reiterate my stance, because some people seem to be dense. I am completely for the 1 circle trade system. My "suggestions" for other trading systems are just that, suggestions. I find it funny how Viscera has a stronger argument against Meatless, yet proceeds to vote me up on some pretty hilarious points. | ||
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On January 27 2012 17:55 VisceraEyes wrote: The point is that if they don't agree with the circle-trading plan, then it doesn't matter what "suggestions" you make, we don't have enough time to come to a unanimous decision. Or more accurately, we don't have time to discuss a lynch AND decide on the plan. But the more pressing concern is the lynch, because we only have one more day to decide that. And you don't vote. Are you afraid to be held accountable for your vote? Are you waiting for someone to tell you who to vote? You can always change your vote if you change your mind. What if YOUR vote spurs the scummy bandwagon that you catch the WHOLE SCUMTEAM on? It just stinks of reservation and stalling man, that's all I'm sayin. No need to get all "some people are dense" on me. Why do you keep bringing up this running out of time notion? We have a day and a half to decide still, unless my math is completely off. KST time is weird. That is plenty of time to discuss more without making rash decisions. Why can't we discuss a lynch AND decide on a plan at the same time? Do you think that little of the town? Most of us here probably play Starcraft, so multitasking shouldn't be that big a deal. "What if", "What if". What if statements do nothing to help. I just want to clarify that I am not taking the lynch lightly. Rash decisions and shotgun voting are a bad idea. Honestly we don't have much to go on yet for the D1 lynch. Why am I the one stalling when the majority of the town hasn't voted yet either? By your logic they should all be scum as well for "stalling". I am not waiting to vote. My mind is still changing. Just because I don't vote and unvote every other post doesn't make timid. I will vote when I am ready to vote, not before. | ||
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You are contradicting yourself. You have little faith in us, think we are bad, and think we should die, yet want us to go with the system in which requires the most brain power. Either we are competent or not. You can't have it both ways. It is a big risk to give votes to who we "think" is the most pro-town person on N1, because we can't be sure of any of our reads. Being 100% sure of anything is impossible for a townie. So it comes down to Less Risk(circle trading) versus More Information(free trading). After Night 1 I am all for doing something else. We will have more information, due to the possibility of power roles. Power roles will be able to be 100% percent sure on things and lead town to lynches and pro-town reads. After Night 1 your plan is sound. | ||
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*Being 100% sure of anything is impossible for a townie during N1. | ||
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By your guys logic, players such as Node, Jackal58 and jaybrundage shouldn't get any votes due to them being less active than others, which implies less town. Here is where I get caught up. Who has to the most to gain from being active and pro-town? Mafia does. I am not saying that the lurkers can't be mafia, but it is unlikely. Mafia want to get voting majority in whatever way possible they can right? Between the active players we are split on what to do N1, which is far worse than going with one plan or another. Solidarity goes a long way in mafia. Also what is the point of the free trade plan + justifications if we are just going to make people balance the votes back out the next night to those with 1 vote. The people with 1 vote should be weaker townies and mafia. What is the point of not trading to them N1 if we are just going to give them votes back N2. Now onto the business. On January 27 2012 22:57 Palmar wrote: The difference between finding mafia to lynch and finding townie to pass your vote to is night and day. Remember, if you just randomize it, you still have 70% chance of hitting a townie. Add in even a tiny bit of thinking and that percentage goes up. When you're trying to lynch scum it's the opposite, and you will be influenced by outside factors (it's harder to get wagons started on scum). However, this is your decision and your decision alone, so you have complete control over the outcome. There is no such thing as safe play in mafia. It's not safe to do the circle of trust because we don't know what abilities the mafia has, and we cannot possibly gain an advantage through that method. With no advantage we don't know how the game is balanced. "I just chose at random" This justification completely negates what your plan is trying to do, which is to get scumtells from peoples justification on their trades. Another contradiction By your logic and probability, townies should trade their votes at random N1, ~70% chance to trade to another townie. So, which one is it Palmar? Free trade + justifications or randomized trading. On January 27 2012 19:57 Palmar wrote: whatever, I don't have the energy to argue with dumb. I will not be following whatever plan you guys cook up. I will be following my own plan. This is so anti-town. Solidarity is crucial, not dissidence. You are forcing the town to do one of two things, follow you or lynch you. Seems like a scummy power play to me. ##Vote: Palmar | ||
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On January 28 2012 05:13 Jackal58 wrote: Scum can gain voting power by killing the people they trade votes with. And don't vote for the cowboy. Palmar is town. Any reasons to why you think Palmar is town? The way the game is evolving right now, Palmar seems to be gaining a lot of town support, thus more likely to get votes on N1 if we do the free trade system. Am I the only one wary of this? There is no possible way to know whether or not he is town or mafia on D1. This is a game of wits and Palmar is a smart fellow, just saying. On January 28 2012 05:05 Palmar wrote: You're not helping anyone with that. You're just being dumb. Seeing as you're probably town you're working directly against your win condition. I didn't suggest anyone randomized, I was just pointing out what a great starting point we had even if we simply randomed. Don't try to see things that aren't there. Palmar, why the lack of open-mindedness? The benefit of circle trading N1 is much safer than free trading to people based of some perception we got during D1. I don't disagree with a free trade + justification plan after N1, but N1 circle trading seems the best options, until we get some solid reads during D2. I'll leave my vote on you until you give some valid benefits to free trade over circle trading N1. Does anyone think no lynching is an option D1? The mafia have a set KP, thus we only lose 1 townie and D2 we have a ton more information to work with. Odds are we will lynch a townie today. | ||
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On January 28 2012 09:36 layabout wrote: + Show Spoiler [Paperscraps last post] + On January 28 2012 09:24 Paperscraps wrote: Any reasons to why you think Palmar is town? The way the game is evolving right now, Palmar seems to be gaining a lot of town support, thus more likely to get votes on N1 if we do the free trade system. Am I the only one wary of this? There is no possible way to know whether or not he is town or mafia on D1. This is a game of wits and Palmar is a smart fellow, just saying. Palmar, why the lack of open-mindedness? The benefit of circle trading N1 is much safer than free trading to people based of some perception we got during D1. I don't disagree with a free trade + justification plan after N1, but N1 circle trading seems the best options, until we get some solid reads during D2. I'll leave my vote on you until you give some valid benefits to free trade over circle trading N1. Does anyone think no lynching is an option D1? The mafia have a set KP, thus we only lose 1 townie and D2 we have a ton more information to work with. Odds are we will lynch a townie today. I am fine with lynching this guy. What's this i am gonna leave my vote on you crap? He is also hinting at a no-lynch on the basis that we will likely hit a townie, which is just plain bad If you think I am guilty, why not vote me up then? I am leaving my vote on Palmar, because he is being unreasonable. Hopefully he will post something more constructive, instead of just calling people "dumb". I on the other hand am open to suggestions and willing to change if people post logical arguments. 4/15 chance to hit mafia, 11/15 chance to hit townie. You are willing to lynch me right now and that would be very bad for town. Why the sudden change from purple and viscera to me? Why is a no-lynch so frowned upon? I understand that we can only kill mafia by lynching, but D1 odds are against us. | ||
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On January 28 2012 10:24 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: LSB gave a full plan, it convinced me/answered all my questions at any rate, and involves free trade N1 and stabilization N2. Easier to find and detect mafia than just circle trading and working from there. Also, bugs why the vote? First off I don't agree fully with LSB's plan. On January 16 2012 07:16 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: 2. If a player has more than 5 votes, then he must attempt to give away enough to put him at 5 or less votes. ^ This is the built-in stabilization mechanic ^ I just came to a realization. LSB's stabilization works against the free trade plan. The whole idea of free trade is trading to whomever you want, to get meaningful justifications and scum-tells. If we force players with more than 5 votes to give votes to players with 1 vote, then it defeats the purpose of plan. N1 we get meaningful justifications and N2 players just claim that they traded to some player x because he had 1 vote and was told to do so. Do you see how this is counter-productive the overall goal of free trade? There can't be any in between. All or nothing imo. I am for a full fledged free trade plan, but still believe that circle-trading N1 has more merit. | ||
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D1 we are 3-3-3-3-3-3-3 Then D2 we could be 1-5-3-1-3-3-5 or more probably 1-7-1-1-1-3-7 (due to town usually have a generally unison perception of pro-townies) Alright so the people above with 1 vote should be weaker townies and suspected mafia. Why would we want to give votes back to them again? I know the players with 7 have to trade 2 votes no matter what, but why wouldn't the 7's trade with each other being, both pro-town to keep the advantage with town? Am I not seeing things clearly? Also I didn't take into account the fact that one of those players will die, screwing up the votes. Possibly leaving potential 1's with 3 votes still if they traded to a 7 that was killed. I just need more clarification on why balancing is a good thing in a free trade plan, when we could just use circle trading, which insures a much greater balance. The two plans obviously have different goals and contradict each other. I am not going to talk about plans anymore though. My position at this point is: If we don't have unanimous agreement on circle trading N1, then we will obviously all just free trade and post justifications tomorrow. Either way the whole town is working together which is far more important than the plan itself. | ||
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On January 28 2012 11:58 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: That's just anti-mafia, at first I don't think we'd want anyone, townie or not, to have 7 VP, even if it means losing influence. Just less risky that way, it's more to examine voting patterns. Who knows, maybe you're right. I am confused, do you want a plan based around balance or a plan based around gut instinct/perception? | ||
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On January 28 2012 12:37 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: That's just anti-mafia, at first I don't think we'd want anyone, townie or not, to have 7 VP, even if it means losing influence. Just less risky that way, it's more to examine voting patterns. Who knows, maybe you're right. On January 28 2012 12:37 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Balance would leak to mafia though, they'd just kill off the people that are before them so they can pool their votes. I'd rather do perception so that townies can take advantage of VP. 1.First you are saying that no one should have more VP than others. You are saying that players with high VP should trade it away because having high VP is risky and not worth the information gained from justifications. (Implying balance is good) 2.Then you are saying that balance would lead to mafia to pool their votes. (Implying balance is bad) In case 1 you doubt peoples perceptions. In case 2 you support peoples perceptions. | ||
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On January 28 2012 13:24 LSB wrote: This is one of the worst example of logic I've ever read. If I was day vig I'd kill you for trying to make a case out of this. Please explain to me where my logic fails. No need to get all crazy. The more we poke holes in each others ideas, the more we can flesh out a decent plan. Also I haven't been ignoring your responses. I was trying to emphasize a flaw in the free trade + balance system, which was that a balance mechanism hinders its goal. If you are scared of one player having too many votes, then why not support a circle trade system? That was the point I was trying to make. | ||
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##Vote: Prplhz Two reasons for my change here. 1. My read on Palmar is neutral, by voting him up earlier I was hoping to get him to be more constructive and reasonable. This doesn't look likely now. I don't know all the meta everyone else knows about Palmar, but I think this can be a good thing. I can be more objective about my reads on him in the future. 2. Prplhz voted up wherebugsgo and then just left. No reason at all. On January 28 2012 01:06 prplhz wrote: I need to go shopping now but I'll write something when I get back. ##Vote: wherebugsgo If you say you are going to do something, then follow through. Accountability! | ||
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Sentinel is inconsistent is his posts, having conflicting views and what not. I would say that Sentinel is more scummy than the majority of the players here, but nothing too outrageous. Prplhz has provided no justification at all for his vote. This makes Prplhz scummier than Sentinel imo. | ||
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On January 29 2012 05:16 jaybrundage wrote: Ok so we obviously are not going to follow the circle vote plan. So that leaves us with the Pick your Vote and justify it the next day plan. Thats fine. I do see some of Palmar's points more choices mafia have to make. I still think that the mafia might have a really good scum player who may appear town. But that just a risk we are going to have to take. Also i would prefer to give 1 vote rather then 2 just because there's less risk involved but giving away what number of votes is up to the players discretion. About who to lynch yet im honestly not sure yet I dont support the Sentinel lynch tho. I think his first plan of circle trading was fine and pro town. Gonna go read thru some filters I agree. Although we were somewhat forced into the free trade + justification plan, it is better we all do plan together than a bunch of different plans. Enough people haven't voted yet, so the hammer can fall on either Sentinel or Prplhz, both of which I am ok with. I am leaving for work now and won't be back until after the lynch. My vote stays on Prplhz for my reasons above. | ||
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On January 29 2012 05:34 prplhz wrote: Hey Paperscraps, move your vote it's stupid. Being busy for a while doesn't make me more scum, I am always active as either alignment unless I'm actually busy. If you want to force analysis out of people then why did you support the trade-circle? You voted for me because I didn't provide analysis. Look up there. Now remove your vote. This is a no-flip game, you don't lynch people for no reason. DAT timing. You posted 2 minutes before I left for work. Your argument against wherebugsgo was sound. I just want to let you know I would have changed my vote to wherebugsgo. I don't think my vote on you was stupid before you posted. On January 29 2012 09:52 LSB wrote: Please give away two of your votes. This is for two reasons 1) Giving away two of your votes eliminates looses if you get nightkilled. Even if you don't think you are a high target, mafia could always bluesnipe. 2) People with 1 vote only are extreamly crucial during re-balancing. During Night 1, people with 1 vote are the ones who would receive votes from people with 3+ votes in order to ensure that the vote distribution stays roughly equal. So if you are left with only 1 vote Day 2, there is a high likelyhood that you would have 3+ votes Day 2. How many votes people give away should be factored by two things: 1. More votes if you think your read is very pro-town and less votes if you think your read is town,but still have some reservations about the read. (This is more applicable to late game) 2. If you think you will die during the night, trading the most votes possible is best. | ||
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On January 28 2012 09:09 chaoser wrote: Hi. Let me eat dinner/work out first and I will try to catch up. @Chaoser Where you at bro? | ||
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On January 30 2012 00:09 layabout wrote: He disappeared and nobody spoke out against his defence. Couldn't you say that this make it seem like he was a townie? It was not like we had caught him out and he was obvious scum that we lynched. There was limited discussion and it ended with him being lynched. If you think that he was scum then it seems reasonable to assume that his teammates did not bus him (because that would have been stupid). Are you going to proceed under the assumption that there are 3 scum left or 4? Are you going to be open to both possibilities? I'll play devil's advocate here, since you like that WIFOM. Lets assume WBG was mafia for a minute. Why would mafia speak out in defense for him? It would only draw suspicion onto them. WBG didn't even defend himself. As risk.nuke mentioned above people do weird stuff when under the gun, which is great because this is when scum make mistakes. Any self-respecting townie would at least try to defend themselves, role claim, anything other than lurk! or at least I would hope a townie would. On January 30 2012 00:09 layabout wrote: If you think that he was scum then it seems reasonable to assume that his teammates did not bus him (because that would have been stupid). Also bussing is valid tactic for mafia. That is a scummy thing to say. It is not reasonable to assume anything of the mafia's plan, when they have a QT to discuss something delicate like a bus, before hand. In a no flip game town has to assume the worst until PRs can give us something concrete, thus we will of course keep an open mind that 4 mafia could still remain. | ||
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On January 30 2012 06:36 layabout wrote: fuck off with the "you like wifom shit." I was merely pointing out that his absence is not something that we can draw conclusions from. risk had said it as if it meant he was scum so i responded by saying that i could similarly draw the opposite conclusion. also prplhz i wanted people to post that they were in agreement/not in agreement with the balancing act proposal,. I only explained my stance on the lynch because i was asked to. If you look at the words about both topics in my first post today: + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2012 20:50 layabout wrote: First thing first: What an awful lynch. Second thing second: The plan seems to revolve around lots of players having 3 votes who then decide who to give their votes to. The balancing relies upon people with lots of votes giving some of them to people with only 1 vote. If people give it different numbers of votes then there will be a reduced number of players with 3 votes, and the number of players with 1 vote. I think that we should all be trading the same number of votes. (this should make it easier to confirm players votes as it makes things simpler). I think two votes is a risk but i think that it is acceptable. It keeps a larger number of vote in the game (which is good as it makes it harder for mafia to control the lynch). And mafia should not be able to hold on to all of their votes gained due to re-balancing. this is just wrong: If you know you are town you should not be giving more than 1 vote away without a good reason because you do not know the alignment of the player that you are giving votes to. You should not be giving out more or less votes depending on the strength of your read. this should be evident. Are you actually suggesting that the mafia would have bussed wbg yesterday? How is is scummy to think that that would be so stupid we should not consider it? I said it is not reasonable to assume anything of the mafia's plan. You have to take a step back and look at the big picture, see who is talking with who, examine voting patterns, look at peoples arguments for why they vote, look at justifications for the VP trade, sheeping, bandwagoning, etc... These things will find mafia, not WIFOM. | ||
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On January 30 2012 06:52 LSB wrote: This is an interesting argument. For the sake of the argument lets assume that WBG was mafia (and try to disprove it) If WBG was mafia, mafia would attempt to defend him. Why? Because it is no flip and it is less risky defend players. In addition, there is less incentive to bus players because town will not be certain that the mafia you bused was actually mafia. Therefore the No-flip sets up incentives for more straightforward-town scum play. Now, to straight out say that there was no defense of WBG would ignore two things. Counterlynches. At the end of the day there were three important lynches. And a valid tactic would be to try to attract attention to another lynch. VisceraEyes- Lead by Palmar and Node [UoN]Sentinal- Proposed by Me, supported by a few other people. A few things, first of all the WBG counterlynch happened extreamly fast, he went from a few votes to magic majority in about 4 hours. By this time a few of the other lynches were abandoned, both me and Palmar switched to WBG. The only person who put up a soft 'defence' of WBG was Node as Node was reluctant to lynch WBG. Currently I have a green read of Node. From here I conclude that it is unlikely there was a mafia defense of WBG, even though there were very solid counterlynches. This could be explained because twoards the end it was less about persuasion, and more about trying to shove a lynch before the deadline. However a last minute push for one of the other two canidates is not impossible in that situation. Because of this we should treat WBG as a green townie. We could argue this back and forth all day, but that wouldn't be beneficial. I do agree to an extent that we should assume the worst for now(since it is no flip) that WBG could have been green. Nope. | ||
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I was thinking of giving vote(s) to Palmar and risk.nuke, but I figured they would be receiving a lot more votes from the rest of the town. I wanted the votes to be spread out more among the town. My third best read was Prplhz. | ||
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On January 30 2012 16:45 Dirkzor wrote: He is asking questions this game. He is writing statements. He have an opinion. While he is not the one with the most or longest posts his posts have had something to tell. In Puragtory he did not do any of those things. So your read on him is based completely around meta? I don't think that is a good idea tbh. | ||
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On January 28 2012 13:24 LSB wrote: This is one of the worst example of logic I've ever read. If I was day vig I'd kill you for trying to make a case out of this. Well looks like you will be the one to die this day. ![]() | ||
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##Vote VisceraEyes @VisceraEyes Why did you wait to CC against Palmar? If a vig doesn't claim shooting last night then that makes you look real bad. You have flip-flopped on Palmar from town to scum with no real analysis. You tried to lynch me with a horrible argument. You don't want to lynch LSB because he has one of your votes? What kind of reason is that? LSB pushes his plans like they are the law, yet has inconsistencies. You support LSB. Speculation + Show Spoiler + Lets speculate Palmar is lying about his claim. Why would mafia try to kill Viscera? Even more odd is why would a "doctor" power role think that Viscera would be a target and save Viscera? I just can't find any sense in this. | ||
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I agree with risk.nuke. Palmar we need to slow down a bit here. I agree that either Viscera or Palmar needs to die, but hasty lynches are not good. From Palmar's perspective Viscera is 100% scum and vice versa, but other townies can't be 100%. (even if the late cc is suspicious) With that being said, I still believe Viscera is scum and Palmar is town, at this juncture. It is only good for town to talk about this more. See what others think about the lynch. More analysis/opinions/discussion ----> more material to get reads on people. | ||
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MeatlessTaco, Chaoser, Jackal and Node need to post more. I would like to see where they weigh in with all of this. | ||
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On January 31 2012 04:26 Paperscraps wrote: ##Unvote VisceraEyes I agree with risk.nuke. Palmar we need to slow down a bit here. I agree that either Viscera or Palmar needs to die, but hasty lynches are not good. From Palmar's perspective Viscera is 100% scum and vice versa, but other townies can't be 100%. (even if the late cc is suspicious) With that being said, I still believe Viscera is scum and Palmar is town, at this juncture. It is only good for town to talk about this more. See what others think about the lynch. More analysis/opinions/discussion ----> more material to get reads on people. EBWOP: I want to clarify that I agree with risk.nuke's notion of taking more time to discuss, not with his notion of doing a DT check tonight. That is stupid. | ||
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On January 31 2012 04:39 Dirkzor wrote: I agree that either Palmar or VE have to die. Or both due to No flip. I would vote VE now, but I don't want to hammer (my vote won't be the hammer i know) until everyone have had a chance to claim the hit on either one. If no one claims it could still be a scum nightvig. How likely do you find that mafia have a nightvig? If no one claims the hit I think the jailer should claim. Because if no one claims the hit or the jail we would have lynch both to be sure. Jailer should NOT claim. | ||
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On January 31 2012 04:56 layabout wrote: You then tried to kill LSB who has done more to help town than any other individual. Oh the irony! It is soo tasty. | ||
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On January 31 2012 05:13 layabout wrote: Scumteam: 1) Palmar or ViceraEyes 2) jaybrundage 3) Meatless taco 4) sentinel 5) jackal58 4 from that, in any order. Either Palmar or Vicera is scum due to claims. (them both being town and claiming hits with no NK and 1 scum KP is extremely unlikely) None of these players has looked very town to me. Riveting post. Would read again. /sarcasm | ||
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On January 31 2012 06:00 prplhz wrote: Can people please vote/hammer VisceraEyes? Look at wherebugsgo yesterday, he was killed in half an hour. Why is it taking so much longer today when VisceraEyes is way more scummier than wherebugsgo was? Plenty of people around. Palmar is hit night1 as town just about every game. VisceraEyes has never been hit by scum night1. QED. I think the only people in this town who would shoot day1 as vigilante is Palmar and chaoser and they'd both claim immediately after and they've both had the chance. VisceraEyes clearly dies today and we have at 36 hours until next lynch which is plenty so stop using that as an excuse. Vote him now so we can get on with the game. Why are you in some big rush? I would like to hear Chaoser and Node chime in, then I will vote Viscera up myself. | ||
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On January 31 2012 06:09 LSB wrote: A few things to note, Palmar has been doing a lot of fear-mongering throughout the day. He essentially has no reasoning besides "Vote along what I say or else I'm going to include you in my magical scum list". If fact the only reasons why he gave to lynch me is "LSB didn't give votes to me, and he gave votes to someone I don't like QQ". That being said, VE has a late claim. And it's a pretty unbelievable claim. Oh well I guess it's something to keep on the back of my mind. ##Vote: VisceraEyes You can't have it both ways. You can't be suspicious of Palmar, yet still vote up Viscera. You either believe one is mafia or the other. | ||
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![]() Until night post. | ||
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VisceraEyes (23): Palmar (4), prplhz (6), [UoN]Sentinel (2), This is actually. VisceraEyes (26): Palmar (4), prplhz (6), [UoN]Sentinel (2), For future reference | ||
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On January 31 2012 09:07 chaoser wrote: Guys...seriously...why did Day end? I'm so confused. This is exactly why I wanted to wait a bit before the lynch. As soon as someone gets majority of the votes they get hammered. | ||
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Saying things like this is only hurting you. If you are really town you will change your attitude, start being more constructive and scum hunt. | ||
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On January 31 2012 18:42 Palmar wrote: actually, if anyone has a bullet, killing layabout or LSB isn't a bad idea. Killing layabout is a bad idea, because he is only likely to give away 1 vote. Thus, town loses 4 votes. Killing LSB is ok, because we will only lose 1 vote. | ||
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On January 31 2012 19:41 prplhz wrote: Killing people isn't about who has this or that many votes, it's about hitting scum. Doesn't matter how many votes they have then. Point taken. On January 31 2012 21:09 Palmar wrote: yeah, what's better? living scum with 4 votes or dead scum with 4 votes? This is rhetorical. | ||
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On February 01 2012 04:30 chaoser wrote: You yourself stated only that you didn't want to hammer the vote even though your vote wouldn't have hammered. This added reason of "I did not want to vote because I didn't want SOMEONE ELSE to hammer" was not mentioned then and so I can not willingly believe this point since it has only just now been introduced. You are reaching. I did the same thing. I pulled my vote on VE because the votes on VE were nearing majority. I didn't want someone to accidentally hammer, like layabout did. Side note: When quoting it is nice to have the name at the top of the quote to see who is saying what. On February 01 2012 05:15 chaoser wrote: But palmar's only real argument against LSB is that he gave his vote to layabout. When compared to what layabout has done and posted, I don't think it's the same condemning thing at all. Possibilites for VE's actions: 1. VE sacrificed himself for LSB. 2. VE is telling the truth and was hit by a vig. Note: vig has not come forward. 3. VE is telling the truth and was hit by mafia, thus Palmar is fake-claiming a hit in some elaborate mafia scheme to become virtually confirmed town. 4. VE just decided to start trolling out of nowhere. I differ to occam's razor here. | ||
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Mind expanding on that question? | ||
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layabout seems to have given up to an extent. If I was really town I would fight to the bitter end. LSB isn't pushing for his balancing mechanism which we has adamant about earlier. The whole game he has been pushing his plans, but now that he is under the gun he hasn't said anything very coherent. | ||
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If you are under suspicion, then the town thing to do is give all your votes away to your most pro-town read. layabout made it pretty clear he is only going to trade 1 VP. LSB can only trade 1 VP so this point is null for him. If we lynch LSB tomorrow we will only lose 1 vote. If we lynch layabout we lose 4 votes, but if we wait to lynch layabout on D4 we only lost 3 votes and get further analysis on layabouts VP trades to find the final scum. Anyone trading VP to either layabout or LSB is suicide. | ||
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Obviously if you are town you will have the same vested interest as these town players. Stop posting filler and find someone that is scummier than you! Convince us! I understand I am repeating things said above, but pride is a dangerous thing in mafia. Sometimes repetition and emphasis is the best medicine. | ||
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Popcorn time! ![]() | ||
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So vig kill reveals alignment? I gave 2 votes to risk.nuke. For being pro-town. | ||
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##Vote layabout if it isnt already apparent... | ||
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hmm...I need to think about this for a second...something seems way to easy. | ||
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Now I see why layabout was so adamant that we wasn't going to give votes away, to justify having soo many today. Anyways layabout needs to die. ##Vote layabout | ||
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On February 01 2012 10:44 Paperscraps wrote: Yeah, it looks like the votes given to Palmar were siphoned to layabout. Now I see why layabout was so adamant that we wasn't going to give votes away, to justify having soo many today. Anyways layabout needs to die. ##Vote layabout My only reservation is that the mafia knows we will see right through this power play. WIFOM Is mafia setting up layabout or is layabout in on it? | ||
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On February 01 2012 10:44 jaybrundage wrote: Our Hero has fallen D: Wait shouldnt Prplhz still have his votes because palmar died during the night? Im confused about this. Also I gave one vote to Jackal58 because i have a town read on him. Paperscraps why would you give risk.nuke votes when palmars reads were on risk.nuke being possible scum?\ Palmar thought risk.nuke was scum, because he suggested a no lynch and layabout traded 1 vote to him. I don't agree. | ||
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On February 01 2012 10:50 chaoser wrote: I think that they were expecting this to be THE game ending power play though. I mean...given layabout's play through the game, I'm 90% certain he's mafia. Yes I agree. I just like to think of all possibilities. It is just how my brain works. | ||
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No offense to the cowboy of course. ![]() | ||
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He is anti-town. Palmar was killed last night proving his innocence. Mafia new people would be trading a lot of votes to him. There is no discussion. If you are town you will neutralize the threat layabout presents. | ||
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Current votes: layabout (14): Not voting: Node (1), Jackal58 (3), jaybrundage (3), risk.nuke (4), Dirkzor (1), layabout (10), We need 5 more votes to hammer. | ||
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On February 01 2012 11:01 jaybrundage wrote: Paperscraps my biggest concern is who the remaining mafia is. I mean obviously we have to kill layabout. But im not sure if a instant hammer would be the best option (OR would it?) My biggest question is who is layabout going to try to kill. My other question is how did chaoser get so many votes. It seems odd that he does speak much and gets that high number of votes. We should of expected this mechanic btw. And been more proactive with spreading our votes out. Like we did the first day. Instead of piling them on palmar. But hindsind is 20/20 ![]() ##Vote: Layabout oh really On January 31 2012 07:21 Paperscraps wrote: Well to get the night discussion going i have a few thoughts. Based on last night's actions palmar is likely to live again. Given that he is town, palmar will likely receive a lot of votes. Which is a concern for me. After day three palmar will have to give away a bunch of votes to someone else. Since nobody else is confirmed town yet, this presents a problem. Granted more information is sure to be revealed tomorrow, will another confirmed townie be revealed? Right now we need to decide if we want palmar to have enough votes to hammer by himself tomorrow or keep vp spread out a bit. Enabling one player to hammer is bad idea, now that i think of it. Essentially this nullifies any thoughts the rest of the town has and the town's influence as a whole, which is bad. No one person should be in control of the game, even the cowboy palmar. Of course I was wrong about the whole Palmar still being alive again today thing, but hmm seems like I suggested we think about the spreading of votes already. | ||
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On February 01 2012 11:08 jaybrundage wrote: Well note i didnt trade with palmar either day. But paperscraps who do you figure as the last mafia and why? Well your sudden FOS on me is suspicious, but I want to hear what others have to say and analyze who traded with who before I announce anything. | ||
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On February 01 2012 11:01 jaybrundage wrote: Paperscraps my biggest concern is who the remaining mafia is. That should be sufficient. | ||
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Day 3 there is 36 total votes. 6 votes were lost. 2 From LSB?? 4 From Palmar?? †LSB -> 1 -> †Palmar †Palmar -> 1 -> prplhz chaoser -> 1 -> †Palmar [UoN]Sentinel -> 1 -> Paperscraps Paperscraps -> 2 -> risk.nuke Node -> 1 -> [UoN]Sentinel prphlz -> 5 -> †Palmar MeatlessTaco -> 1 -> jaybrundage layabout -> 4 -> ???(chaoser maybe?) risk.nuke -> 1 -> Palmar dirkzor -> 1 -> ???(jackal?) Chaoser gained 4 votes from Day 2 dirkzor is minus 1 vote from Day 2 Hmm, i am bit confused here. did layabout give 4 votes to Chaoser? | ||
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Yeah I want to figure this out. | ||
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Palmar 2 -> Paperscraps Jackal58 1 -> Palmar chaoser -> No vote LSB 2 -> layabout prplhz 1 -> Palmar Dirkzor 1 -> Jackal58 risk.nuke 1 -> Palmar [UoN]Sentinel 2 -> prplhz Paperscraps 1 -> Prplhz jaybrundage 1 -> prplhz MeatlessTaco 1 -> Layabout Node 1 -> [UoN]Sentinel VisceraEyes 1 -> LSB layabout 1 -> risk.nuke Final Tally Palmar (4) Jackal58 (3) chaoser (3) LSB (2) prplhz (6) Dirkzor (2) risk.nuke (3) [UoN]Sentinel (2) Paperscraps (4) jaybrundage (2) MeatlessTaco (2) Node (2) VisceraEyes (2) layabout (5) 42 votes total This is the trade from D3 Palmar 1 -> prplhz Jackal58 1 -> ??? Chaoser 1 -> Palmar LSB 1 -> Palmar Prplhz 5 -> Palmar Dirkzor 1 -> ??? risk.nuke 1 -> Palmar [UoN]Sentinel 1 -> Paperscraps PaperScraps 2 -> risk.nuke jaybrundage 1 -> ??? MeatlessTaco 1 -> Jaybrundage how did MeatlessTaco give away a vote? bug with zbot? Node 1 -> [UoN]Sentinel LayAbout 4 -> ???Chaoser Final Tally Node (1) -1 from D2 Jackal58 (3) same as D2 chaoser (6) +3 from D2 prplhz (2) -4 from D2 jaybrundage (3) +1 from D2 risk.nuke (4) +1 from D2 [UoN]Sentinel (2) same as D2 MeatlessTaco (1) same as D2 Paperscraps (3) -1 from D2 Dirkzor (1) -1 from D2 layabout (10) +5 from D2 36 votes total As prplhz just pointed out we only lost 4 votes during the night. That was a mistake on my part. -2 from LSB because he traded votes to a dead player, so it wouldn't go through. -1 from Palmar assuming the siphon drained all the votes. That leaves 1 missing vote unaccounted. LOL I am still so confused. | ||
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(3) Jackal58 -1 to Palmar + 1 = 3 (3) Chaoser 1 to Palmar + 4 = 6 (2) LSB -1 to Palmar = 2 = 1 if LSB is lying it is (6) Prplhz -5 to Palmar + 1 = 2 (2) Dirkzor -1 to Jaybrundage = 1 (3) risk.nuke -1 to Palmar + 2 = 4 (2) [UoN]Sentinel -1 to Paperscraps + 1 = 2 (4) PaperScraps -2 to risk.nuke + 1 = 3 (2) jaybrundage -1 to Jackal58 + 1 + 1 = 3 (2) MeatlessTaco -1 to Jaybrundage = 1 (2) Node -1 to [UoN]Sentinel = 1 (5) LayAbout -4 to Chaoser = 1 + 9??? or (2 + 8??? if LSB is lying) = 10 I see your problem prplhz. The siphon doesn't make sense. Unless... My guess is that the mafia ability can't steal votes a player already has, but can redirect incoming votes. By the assumption that LSB is lying we subtract 3 votes from 11 to get 8. Which makes everything work. Node (1) Jackal58 (3) chaoser (6) prplhz (2) jaybrundage (3) risk.nuke (4) [UoN]Sentinel (2) MeatlessTaco (1) Paperscraps (3) Dirkzor (1) layabout (10) 45 - 3(WBG) = 42 - 2(VE) = 40 - 4?? = 36 We know at least 1 vote is lost from Palmar and LSB By the assumption that the mafia ability can't steal votes: We lose 3 votes from Palmar and 1 vote from LSB. 45 - 3(WBG) = 42 - 2(VE) = 40 - 3(Palmar) -1(LSB) = 36 I think this is correct. | ||
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So we all good on me hammering now? | ||
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boom goes the dynamite! | ||
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I was rb'ed so hmmm. What do you all think? | ||
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On February 01 2012 10:39 chaoser wrote: Obviously layabout needs to tell us who he gave votes to but right now it looks like to me, that Palmer was probably right about his reads. Might have been a last ditch ploy (obviously there was some way/probably mafia action that allowed layabout to get to 10 votes, there's no way people actually gave him that many...right?) to get enough votes to gain majority outright and win the game. Thank god Node killed LSB or who knows what might have happened. On February 01 2012 10:46 chaoser wrote: ##vote layabout I probably won't be changing my vote. Unless layabout gives some amazing explanation. Looks like you will need to do some amazing explaining. On February 01 2012 05:15 chaoser wrote: But palmar's only real argument against LSB is that he gave his vote to layabout. When compared to what layabout has done and posted, I don't think it's the same condemning thing at all. Seems LSB had a pretty important PR. | ||
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On February 02 2012 01:26 Jackal58 wrote: Now that I am sober and on the better end of a hangover I think I am able to make a bit of sense out of this. The vote siphon role doesn't make sense unless it's a one off ability or we would have seen it already I think. What does make sense is scum has a bus driver. Good call Jackal. Mafia self-targets layabout, then scum driver switches Palmar and layabout. Thus medic is really on layabout, not Palmar. Even if medic did WIFOM, it wouldn't have mattered. | ||
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On February 02 2012 01:26 chaoser wrote: This gets rid of not only however many votes [layabout] would be stealing but also get rid of however votes I would end up having. @ChaoserThis should be a non-factor, because if you are town you will be giving all your votes away tonight to your most pro-town read. Also Chaoser you have to agree it looks suspicious that you received votes from layabout. The WIFOM behind it is just that, WIFOM. Dirkzor is suspicious as well, because he only has 1 vote. Both Chaoser and Dirkzor have questionable posts in their respective filters. On January 30 2012 11:00 chaoser wrote: 4) I think paperscapes and LSB give me tonie vibes. paperscapes posts have been informative while also have shown that he is trying to create a positive town environment. Especially here, a good post to keep people on topic and recenter the debate about vote trading: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=303505¤tpage=12#229 LSB, as well, put forth a good vote plan though I disagree with it (I like the free-trade idea better) This post is interesting to say the least. LSB seems "tonie" to Chaoser. Chaoser supports free trade. Good and bad here. On February 01 2012 03:51 chaoser wrote: Secondly, Townies in my head: Palmar - Stop being a dick, I've PMed the mods about it. There's aggressive play and then there's dickish play. You're doing the latter. Paperscape LSB Scums in my head: Dirkzor Layabout ??? LSB is still town, Dirkzor and Layabout are scum.(Chaoser's perspective) More good and bad. On February 01 2012 03:59 chaoser wrote: Actually, I take back my townie read on LSB. Re-reading through his filter has made me downgrade him to a neutral. I will need to think again about his alignment. I still stand by my assessment of layabout. Then Chaoser downgrades LSB to neutral, probably due to Palmar calling Chaoser out on the read. On February 01 2012 05:15 chaoser wrote: But palmar's only real argument against LSB is that he gave his vote to layabout. When compared to what layabout has done and posted, I don't think it's the same condemning thing at all. Interesting?? On February 01 2012 10:39 chaoser wrote: Obviously layabout needs to tell us who he gave votes to but right now it looks like to me, that Palmer was probably right about his reads. Might have been a last ditch ploy (obviously there was some way/probably mafia action that allowed layabout to get to 10 votes, there's no way people actually gave him that many...right?) to get enough votes to gain majority outright and win the game. Thank god Node killed LSB or who knows what might have happened. Something doesn't feel right about this. Could be a slip or deduction, I am leaning towards the former. On January 30 2012 16:19 Dirkzor wrote: I wanted to give palmar or LSB my vote - in that order. But figured that they would get a lot of votes anyway. Then i started to look for a less obvious townie. I gave him 1 vote because i think he is town. I was just playing with him Purgatory (he was scum) where he played differently then what he does now. LSB is obvious townie to Dirkzor?? On January 29 2012 21:25 Dirkzor wrote: I will only give away 1 vote. No matter what plan or what trick I won't give away more then 1 vote. This post by Dirkzor doesn't sit well with me. On January 31 2012 04:39 Dirkzor wrote: I agree that either Palmar or VE have to die. Or both due to No flip. I would vote VE now, but I don't want to hammer (my vote won't be the hammer i know) until everyone have had a chance to claim the hit on either one. If no one claims it could still be a scum nightvig. How likely do you find that mafia have a nightvig? If no one claims the hit I think the jailer should claim. Because if no one claims the hit or the jail we would have lynch both to be sure. Ruse to get jailer to reveal or townie mistake? Probably townie mistake, since I was RB'ed last night, I don't think we have a jailer. Dirkzor and Chaoser have against each other for awhile now. On February 01 2012 04:03 chaoser wrote: Huh? Who is they? layabout and dirkzor? Or do you mean LSB and layabout? I don't think the latter if that's what you're saying Interesting redirection from LSB to Dirkzor. On February 01 2012 04:09 chaoser wrote: I have respect for players who I think are good but that doesn't mean if they don't agree with me or see things my way that they are immediately scummy. There have been many times that I have disagreed with other good townie players and is to be expected. In my opinion, Layabout on day 1 was less scummy than dirkzor or VE. It was only his posting on day two that pushed him into extremely scummy. So I can understand LSB's justification for giving him a vote. Another defense tactic for LSB. On February 01 2012 04:20 chaoser wrote: His[Dirkzor] forced vote on prplhz reminds me of VE's forced votes and posts on both you and paperscapes. His defense of his vote was, in my opinion, lacking. He added nothing of substance to the VE lynch posting: in which he discredits his OWN reason for not voting VE: "but I don't want to hammer (my vote won't be the hammer i know)" and then adds in a weird suggestion about how the jailer should claim. He then continues to criticize VE with: when he himself has been equally noncommital: I see some hypocrisy in this post. On February 01 2012 04:23 chaoser wrote: The only post that I like so far is his[Dirkzor] post on LSB and that one I am currently checking with LSB's posts in context. Aside from that though, he gives off scummy reads to me. This post below by Dirkzor is the one Chaoser likes, which is interesting. On January 31 2012 02:38 Dirkzor wrote: Just because palmar is almost certainly town does not mean his reads are correct. But how can you question his towness? I can't think of a scenario where scum would have the guts to not shoot, only so Palmar could claim to get jailed. About LSB, who Palmar wants dead, and 2 more sheeped (wtf?): He have been very vocal and active so he must be town - or what Prplhz? (joking) What bothers me about his filter is that he have constantly been pushing his plans. Plan 1 (click) was basicly the same idea that was already in the thread + the self correction mechanism. Rough layout of Plan 2 (click) Then he sees the light (click) as an explanition to why he changed from his plan 1 to plan 2. Is the same post he calls Sentinel scum for essentially supporting what was his Plan 1 (see spoiler below) + Show Spoiler + I don't like this post. In fact this plan is very bad. If I was mafia, I would love this plan and support it, because of an easy counterplan. First of all, look at the concept of stability. Sentinel proposes that stability is more important in the early game than in the late. This is very wrong. Stability is more important in the late game than in the early. In the early game, although it is bad if the mafia suddenly gets 5 extra vote power Day 2, we still have time to account for it. However if the mafia suddenly gets 5 extra vote power Day 3, it could suddenly lose the game. Day 1/2 we have the freedom to try to achieve information at the risk of loosing vote power, day 3/4+ we do not simply because there is the high chance of loss My plan accounts for that because it focuses on stabilizing the late game, after a very tumultuous night 1. Secondly, look at information. Sentinel makes the fundamental assumption that circle-jerking will provide meaningful information. It won't, but it will provide a lot of WIFORM. However vote transfers will always have lots of information because every vote transfer is known. People will need to account for their votes. Sentinel's plan achieves neither of his goals of stability. In fact, there is a very dangerous counterplan that guarantees mafia an overwhelming advantage day 3 Counterplan: Between Day 1 and Day 2, give town 1 VP, and give mafia 1 VP 1: All mafia live. N3 Mafia has 13 VP, town has 17 VP. If town gives up 2 VP.If one townies mistransfers, mafia wins 2. 1 Mafia is lynched. N3 Mafia has 10 VP, town has 20 VP. If town gives up 5 VP, mafia wins. More likely, 1-2 townies will mistransfer leading to Mafia entering with 12-14 VP, and town having 15-16 VP. This sets up lylo as the town has to be unanimous in order to unseat mafia. I believe this flaw is intentional and therefore I have a Red read on Sentinel Conclusion: I should read the thread before posting. And ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel Why is it that Sentinels logic is scummy when LSB himself had the same logic to begin with? In his 2nd case/post on sentinel he is even calling him scummy even though he changed his mind later on - the same way LSB saw the light and changed his mind when paperscraps called him out on it. Its a double standard at its finest. + Show Spoiler + On January 29 2012 07:11 LSB wrote: We have about 3 hours to get a lynch in and I will spend this time to push forth what I think is the best lynch, [UoN]Sentinel. I can see similarities between my mafia play in previous games and his play here. One of effective plays a mafia can do is to blatantly play for the mafia side. Sometimes town doesn’t notice, and sometimes a few people do notice but they don’t do anything till it’s too late In addition, this play is very effective for this setup, even if you are exposed, you could simply transfer 2 of your votes away to your team, minimizing a loss of a sacrifice. As I have stated here, the plans that [UoN]Sentinel proposes all have effective mafia counterplans: -Circlejerk is obvious, but mafia friendly -His wait 2 nights and then free trade is disastrous, and results in either a D2 or D3 lylo. -His wait 1 night is almost as bad, and put on shaky reasoning To say that I am ‘giving him too much credit’ or ‘he can’t possibly scheme that for ahead’, would be an unfair underestimation. His posts demonstrate he is capable of thinking ahead and the ability to formulate intricate counterplans. Although he had a change of heart in the later stages, this only happened after I called him out on his plan, and it is standard play to drop any obvious mafia tactics as soon as possible. Because of his blatant attempts to mislead the town, to me he is the most obvious mafia I would not oppose a LSB lynch at this moment. This accusation is way more reserved than Dirkzor's on prplhz. Where did his fire go? On February 01 2012 04:21 Dirkzor wrote: What I find weird is that multiple people have called me scum with no reasoning at all. Chaoser, node and Prp (he gave a little, but bad, reasoning)... We know Chaoser is on Dirkzor's radar. On February 01 2012 18:51 Dirkzor wrote: Why the fuck would layabout give 4 votes to chaoser? Assume Chaoser is scum for now. Before night 2 Layabout, LSB and Chaoser had: chaoser (3) LSB (2) layabout (5) 8 votes in total. We know Layabout somehow got vote he shouldn't. We know it fits the amount of votes (8/9 doesnt matter who LSB sent his vote to it would end up at Layabout either way) sent to palmar. We can assume that scum syphoned the votes traded to Palmar in order to gain the majority of the votes. Trades night 2: Sent: chaoser (3) -> 1 vote to palmar/layabout = 2 votes left LSB (2) -> 1 vote to palmar/layabout = 1 vote left layabout (5) -> 4 votes to chaoser = 1 vote left Received: chaoser (3) + 4 votes from Layabout = 6 total LSB (2) + 0 votes = 1 total (0 as he died) layabout (5) + 9 votes (intercepted from palmar) = 10 votes Had layabout only given away 1 vote or given his votes to palmar (thus giving to himself) layabout would have been on 14 or 15. 1) Why did he not send his votes to palmar - which meant himself? 2) Why did he not send to LSB? 3) Why did layabout not keep as many votes for himself as possible? 1) If Layabout was shot during night the votes would have probably ended at Palmar. Not a good situation for scum. 2) The pressure was on LSB and Layabout. If layabout had send votes to LSB it would just further incriminate the 2 as scumbuddies. Would not have been a problem had mafia gained majority but if they didn't the votes would be better on the last remaining scum. 3) Same as 1 and 2. If layabout was shot the votes would have been lost. It was the best of 2 worlds for scum to send the votes to chaoser. If they had gained majority it didn't matter where the votes where. If they didn't the remaining votes would be on the last scum who we hadn't caught on to yet (chaoser). If scum were to use the most insanely overpowered powerrole in this game it would be insanely stupid of them to give AWAY votes. Which is why chaoser is the last scum. Personally I like this post by Dirkzor. Dirkzor has been stepping up his game as of late, but I think him having 1 vote is also curious to say the least. With that said Chaoser is still my FoS. WIFOM + Show Spoiler + Is mafia trying to play two townies against each other? Chaoser and Dirkzor obviously think each other are scum. Let us speculate.1 townie dies tonight, we lynch Chaoser tomorrow. Game doesn't end. Another townies dies, we lynch Dirkzor. Game doesn't end. Then another townie die. That is 5 townies down. Now we are on D6 and have to lynch with 5 players remaining and 1 being mafia. We still aren't on mylo. If we ML on D6 then D7 we have an epic three-way and lylo. Seems more likely that mafia went for a power play, hoping more people would give votes to Palmar. That would mean Chaoser and layabout would have the majority. Chaoser needs to die. I don't see any downside to it. This is where we currently stand. Node (1) Jackal58 (3) chaoser (6) prplhz (2) jaybrundage (3) risk.nuke (4) [UoN]Sentinel (2) MeatlessTaco (1) Paperscraps (3) Dirkzor (1) 45 - 3(WBG) = 42 - 2(VE) = 40 - 3(Palmar) -1(LSB) = 36 - 10(layabout) = 26 votes remaining. | ||
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On February 02 2012 05:19 prplhz wrote: The bussing ability is usually not a one shot ability? Then I don't fully get why scum didn't use it night1. Speculation: Chaoser's vote didn't go through to Palmar, thus we could assume his night action might have been late as well. If he is scum driver, then this would account for no one being bussed. Kind of a long shot I know. There probably is a lot more reasons mafia had to not bus N1. I don't think it is too big a deal though. | ||
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On February 02 2012 06:16 chaoser wrote: We're doing so well as town it doesn't even matter if i get lynched or not lol. Aside from me though Paper, I would like to know your scale of scumminess. If possible. It shouldn't be too hard to tell who I like as town reading through my filter. It is also pretty obvious that Dirkzor and you are at the top of my scumlist. Of course you being #1. ![]() Outing my top town reads wouldn't be beneficial. On February 02 2012 06:07 chaoser wrote: I don't mind a lynch. layabout's vote-pass to me was a pretty good play by him to falsely incriminate me. I just think you're all being misled by Dirkzor and layabout. I'm giving my votes away to someone I think is pro-town. After I get lynched though, lynch dirkzor. This is a good attitude to have. If you are right about Dirkzor it is auto win for town either way. | ||
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Well nothing can be done now so we have another day until night ends. Let's keep discussing. Prplhz, Jackal58 and jaybrundage who are your FoS's? Do you guys have any reasons why you don't like the chaoser lynch? My mind is open. | ||
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I don't know what to make of Meatless yet. Also Node is uncc'ed vig, so he is town. I need to think on risk.nuke some more, but I am leaning towards town. | ||
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On February 02 2012 19:40 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I have a funny feeling about Taco, he cast his vote for me without explanation D1, maybe part of the same bandwagon that bugs, layabout and LSB were on. Chaoser right now to me is orange. If we had to vote right now, I wouldn't cast my vote for him, but I'd still be pretty suspicious. Grouping bugs, layabout and LSB is interesting. Care to expand on this? Also why wouldn't you cast your vote right now? | ||
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My top scum reads: MeatlessTaco Chaoser Sentinel Dirkzor I believe much will be revealed after tonight. Incase I die, I leave you all with this. steganography | ||
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Good Luck all! ![]() | ||
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On February 03 2012 06:47 Paperscraps wrote: I believe much will be revealed after tonight. Incase I die, I leave you all with this. steganography Hint for me leaving breadcrumbs. The only capital letters in the paragraphs below. On January 28 2012 10:34 Paperscraps wrote: Understand that i am fully for lynching, i was just wondering what other peoples thoughts were on it. Now i feel as though i am being condemned for wanting to interact with town and strike up important and relevant discussions. Does being active and opposing palmar make me scum? Either you guys are using meta which i am unaware of or know something about palmar i dont. Right now though i am realizing that my talking so much about plans is upsetting people. Thing is, i dont care whether we do the free trade plan or circle trade plan, as long as the town is in unision. A point i made pretty early on in the thread. Keep in mind the people pushing for their respective plan can have hidden agendas. Even if we decided on a plan, we don't know if mafia or town was pushing for it on day one. Reminder: you cant trust anyone. Undertaker = synonym for mortician. (aka gravedigger, coroner) On January 31 2012 07:21 Paperscraps wrote: Well to get the night discussion going i have a few thoughts. Based on last night's actions palmar is likely to live again. Given that he is town, palmar will likely receive a lot of votes. Which is a concern for me. After day three palmar will have to give away a bunch of votes to someone else. Since nobody else is confirmed town yet, this presents a problem. Granted more information is sure to be revealed tomorrow, will another confirmed townie be revealed? Right now we need to decide if we want palmar to have enough votes to hammer by himself tomorrow or keep vp spread out a bit. Enabling one player to hammer is bad idea, now that i think of it. Essentially this nullifies any thoughts the rest of the town has and the town's influence as a whole, which is bad. No one person should be in control of the game, even the cowboy palmar. WBG was green. On February 02 2012 17:26 Paperscraps wrote: Visceraeyes wasn't the top person on chaoser's scumlist, yet he doesn't announce who his top scum reads are until two days later. Even if chaoser is town, his town play has been reactionary and not proactive in finding scum. Which is why it would be easy to frame him sure, but it is not a huge loss for town really either. Also we have three mis-lynches until lylo, which means we get to lynch four more people, if people are killed every night of course. So the more i think about this, if chaoser gives aways all his votes tomorrow i am definitely willing to discuss other lynch options. Really for mafia's plan in framing chaoser to work, they have to have someone who seems pro-town. Experience tells us that palmar's fos on risk.nuke is something to be seriously considered. Divulging our roles tomorrow will help greatly in the scumhunt. VE was red. | ||
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