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On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.)
I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident).
On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps
If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.
I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you.
Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game.
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
WIFOM alert, which is more likely?
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here,
On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:
I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?
I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?
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EBWOP: Cephiro and bkrow have alot to read between Gonzaw, Paperscraps, and I. I'm not going to post again until they've written their thoughts. Also, I find this very interesting:
On January 13 2012 09:32 Cephiro wrote:
One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be.
Scum trying to stay off one another's toes? I think so.
@Gonzaw, who are you even quoting in your post? You didn't put anyone's names when you quoted them. Hopefully you didn't quote more than one person.
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Blazinghand
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No wait.... I'm still in the game!
First case coming up soon. Should have all posted in < 4 hours.
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Disclaimer: I won't be available during the last 5 hours of Day 4. I have to work tomorrow from noon to 5(pst), unfortunate timing I know, but we all have lives.
Thus, I will continue my crusade against gonzaw and CatsnHats. I am going to keep stacking the evidence against them without relent. Both players in the past few day have provided poor/evasive/filler feedback.
gonzaw's response to my argument against him was kind of hilarious. He is digging his own grave at the moment.
That leaves me with convincing Cephiro and bkrow that I am town and CatsnHats is scum.
I believe all of my posts including and after this one provide good arguments against gonzaw and CatsnHats.
Let us start the analysis!
CatsnHats:
Remarks in bold.
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident). Cats gives some hypothetical here about how he would have played better if he was mafia, because he would have used a coach. This is impossible to know and doesn't help.
This whole paragraph is a plea for Cats to be spared. There is no analysis here.Show nested quote +On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps
If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.
I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you. Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game. I will translate this. "Please mister! You can trust me!" *bats eyelashes* "I am not going to provide any evidence against other players, just trust me." Emotion and gut feelings don't win games.Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
WIFOM alert, which is more likely?
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here, You think it is correct? WHY? Let's see some analysis!Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:
I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?
I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph? Cats is contradicting himself yet again here. He says he doesn't have a full blown case against gonzaw, but until recently he was sure gonzaw>Paperscraps on the scum scale. Cats says my agruments aren't that great, but provides no reasons why. We are all newbies here Cats, just read the title of the thread. This whole paragraph screams hesitation! Cats is yet again waiting to hear from the majority, so that he doesn't step on any feet with voicing his own opinion. So much contradiction. Why hasn't Cats voted me up yet? Stick to your guns!! You can't sheep the whole game. Can't you provide a decent argument against Me, gonzaw or Cephiro?
It is time to nut up or shut up CatsnHats. Cats is playing the field right now. He is waiting to vote up others and delaying solid analysis, because he wants to hear others opinions? What about your opinion Cats? Don't you have one? Opinions that actually have some analysis to them?
@Cephiro: I am not going to beg you trust me like Cats is. Just look at all the solid arguments I have made against Cats and gonzaw. Logic and reasoning is the only thing you can trust in a game of mafia!
On January 14 2012 05:39 CatsnHats wrote:EBWOP: Cephiro and bkrow have alot to read between Gonzaw, Paperscraps, and I. I'm not going to post again until they've written their thoughts. Sounds pretty evasive to me.Also, I find this very interesting: Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 09:32 Cephiro wrote:
One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be.
Scum trying to stay off one another's toes? I think so. Just because Probu took a liking to you before he died doesn't exonerate you. Agreed Probu had solid analysis, but then again Probu was wrong with CM and me. If you suck up to people they are going to like you more. I don't find this point valid at all. WIFOM at its best.@Gonzaw, who are you even quoting in your post? You didn't put anyone's names when you quoted them. Hopefully you didn't quote more than one person.
gonzaw:
(long post)+ Show Spoiler +On January 14 2012 05:04 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote:He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us. What? Are you kidding me? You are just sheeping Prob again? Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:
That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make.
You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark. Oh right, that was the reason /sarcasm You didn't even respond to that post I made. Good job trying to get everybody to ignore that, but I won't. And you know why I'm so angry at Prob's case? Because it's full of WIFOM, nitpicking of wording, logical fallacies, strawman and confirmation bias it's not funny!!!Let's see Prob's "thought process" here: -Okay, I'm DT, and I checked BK and came back town, therefore he's town I assume Cats and Cephiro are town. Therefore gonz and Paper are scum. Q.E.D......wait shit, I have to make a case against him now...hmmm what to do? Oh, I'll just quote every post of his and "tell a story" about how he posted from a mafia perspective, that will work. That's fucking confirmation bias, which makes all of his case fucking wrong. You know why? Because I'm town. Now why would that be possible? Because he fucked up by assuming both of you (Ceph and Cats) were town. Also, you are indeed sheeping Prob, and have been doing it since the beginning of the game. Last day I also agreed with Prob that your game was improving, you were active and such. But no, last night your game has gone to worse so bad it's not funny. Your blatant sheeping with Prob against someone you weren't suspicious of before using a shitty case, makes you look SO bad, I'm actually thinking you are scum too. Also, now that you think Prob is so "awesome" and has "awesome reads", let me tell you something about Prob: How many "scum reads" did he make before mine? 4: Cats, Ceph, Cookie and Sheth From Prob's POV (where he assumes both Cats and Ceph are town), then that means he got 3 out of 4 reads absolutely wrong!But "well" you say, "at least he got the Sheth read right , right?" Yeah, but why was that? Oh yeah, HE GOT A FUCKING SCUM CHECK FROM SHETH If Prob wasn't a DT, I'm sure he would have still thought Sheth was "null" and would have never made that case against him. Then Prob makes useless assumptions, that both of you and Ceph are town. WHEN WE ARE AT FUCKING LYLO. I fucking told him there are no confirmed townies (well, apart from BK at least), and he was so stubborn that he said "oh, you need to take some risks and find out who's town to weed out scum" or some shit. Guess what? That risk will lose you the game because everybody is blatantly sheeping you! Thank you Prob! For fucks sake, everybody thinks Prob's game is "so good", when it was actually shit. Remember, HE GOT OUR FUCKING MEDIC LYNCHED. AND YOU STILL SHEEP HIM. WITHOUT ANY OTHER REASONS. Wait.... Nobody claimed RBed? ??? what? Omg this is so fucking stupid lol When Blurry flipped, SCUM KNEW THERE WAS A DT. And they didn't use their RB ability to try and block him? Are you kidding me? Scum must be so stupid, hahaa Maybe they even forgot they had a RBer lol Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 16:06 Paperscraps wrote:I agree that this was all speculation, I will leave out wishy washy remarks in the future. Right, so leaving them out in the future justifies you using them before. /sarcasm Show nested quote +I was thinking that Cats was much more probable than Blurry first off.
After reading through Blurry's filter, he just seemed more inexperienced and more town.
Probulous also thinking Blurry being town weighed a lot with me, because probulous had good reads and analysis thus far. Well, what a coincidence, you are sheeping Prob too. Show nested quote +I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him. I kept linking Blurry with Sheth. Blurry somewhat called Sheth out early on, but never followed up later. This was probably the main reason that I thought Blurry was scum. Prob and the rest of town convinced me otherwise. Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town. ?? Show nested quote +I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him lol "Town was thinking that Blurry was town, therefore I should change my views against him because if I'm still suspicious of him I will look bad" Show nested quote +I was thinking that Cats is mafia, so if Blurry voted up Cats then that would mean that Blurry would indeed be town. So you relied your analysis on Blurry on WIFOM? Are you fucking kidding me? Show nested quote +Not just because of that, but also in general the town was swaying more towards Blurry being town. Blurry made a decent case against Cats. I didn't forget about Blurry being scum, but rather Blurry was lower on my list. I was thinking Cats would be a safer bet. Again you are using the same "I was sheeping town" response? You said "Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town", but you said "I didn't forget about Blurry being scum"? What? He was on you "scum list" (albeit lower) but you were beginning to think he was town? Show nested quote +The constant change of opinions is due to getting caught up with the game, re-reading peoples filters and the general feeling of the town. Thinking he was Cats' scum buddy, was just hypothetical. I didn't ignore your case against Blurry. I just didn't find it very strong. I think the fact that Sheth and Blurry didn't talk much was due to Blurry being inexperienced plain and simple. Show nested quote +I don't know why I have to mention other peoples arguments against people, when I make my own. That is unreasonable. Right, why would you even address an incriminating case against Blurry when you were thinking he was scum? Oh yeah I know, so you could continue sheeping town and not look bad. Show nested quote +It is not so much that I am assuming people are town, but rather that I thought Cats and you were more probable to be scum than others at the time in such a situation.
You forgot to say that "we were more probable" when you blatantly said who would be scum when Prob died. Show nested quote +Pretty harsh thing to say. Making a case for someone being town is just as effective as making a case for someone being scum. Scum are the people that don't want others to know who town are. Are you kidding me? Are you really accusing me by defending Cookie's actions? Show nested quote +Gonzaw then proceeds to vote up CM. He doesn't provide any real evidence against CM. ?? Lol you didn't even bother reading my filter. I don't have to give a detailed summary of why I think someone is scum dammit! I already pressured Cookie, found his behaviour scummy, saw as he didn't respond and thought that was the best option. You could have known that if you had read my filter Thank you for ignoring my response to AKCT too! Show nested quote +Gonzaw is trying to cast suspicion on to Blurry. He knows that the mafia isn't going to use their role blocker, so that the town is at a disadvantage. This very reasoning lead us to the mis-lynch of Blurry. Oh the irony  What? I was pressuring him because do you know how easy is for scum to say "Oh, if someone is RBed they should claim" "Oh, if you are a vet and you were hit you should claim" and dwell on that so they appear like they are contributing? Show nested quote +This is the same thing Sheth did. He gave a pep talk to Cats to not throw the game. You mean the same thing Prob, your magestical messiah did. Also, do you think it was wrong for me to do that? You are just desperately going through my filter taking whatever you can to paint me suspicious. But of course, what else can you do? From your "POV" I HAVE to be scum, right? Show nested quote +Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reasons for voting up CM(AKCT) are bad.
Yet, Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reason were part of the reasons why he voted up CM(AKCT).
Sounds like a contradiction to me. HAHAHA HAHAHAHA OMG, this is so fucking terrible it's funny. Way to use a strawman buddy. lol That fucking means that the player that voted for CM/AKCT had previous reasons, not that the reasons of those players were the same as mine. Really, there is no way that could be misunderstood. Lol, but good try, scum using strawmans confuses other townies from making good reads, good try indeed. Show nested quote +Then, Gonzaw sheeps/bandwagons(whatever you want to call it) with Prob in the lynching of Sheth. He doesn't provide any analysis of Sheth and says he had a null reason of him up until this point. Of course we know now that Prob knew for a fact that Sheth was mafia, but at the time no one knew this. Then he just disappears and leaves his scum buddy to die, so he doesn't have to provide any reasoning to his vote.
Gonzaw gets angry that Cehpiro called him out for him voting up Sheth with no analysis, yet Gonzaw rebukes other players for doing the same thing. Gonzaw responds harshly saying that people shouldn't be suspicious of him just, because of some WIFOM Jitsu made Omg, you are still dwelling on that? IT WAS ALREADY FUCKING ADDRESSED IF YOU HAD READ MY FILTER AND THE THREAD YOU WOULD HAVE KNOWN. Let me repeat it for you if you don't remember: I was away from town, I had no fucking internet accessWhat? Are you saying I lied? Do you want me to send fucking pictures and witness reports (from my family) to prove you wrong? Because I can. Show nested quote +Gonzaw votes up Blurry for using his gut and WIFOM. Nothing substantial. Contradiction again. Omg, more "misinterpretation" DID YOU SEE THE PART WHERE I FOUND BLURRY WAS LYING? ARE YOU IGNORING THAT ON PURPOSE? ARE YOU IGNORING ALL THE OTHER REASONS I STATED ON N1? Show nested quote +This post is full of garbage. As other players have mentioned Blurry shouldn't have to be the only one to argue that he is town, others can argue it for him to avoid a mis-lynch. Mafia gains a clear advantage when no-body stands up for each other. Gonzaw is very aggressive and gives us some WIFOM against Blurry. Gonzaw is hypocritical here again, using WIFOM against Blurry, but when WIFOM is used against himself it can't be right. Are you kidding me? You are saying that a townie shouldn't defend himself? If Blurry was scum, do you know how easy it would be for him to fucking forget about the game and let other townies defend him? Are you seriously implying that just to make me suspicious? Show nested quote +Blurry told the truth the whole time. He admitted he was a weak player. Gonzaw says Blurry is playing the "newb card". Blurry was a newb. Gonzaw was trying hard to goad people into voting up for Blurry based on nothing really. Right, because we knew that he was "telling the truth the whole time" at that point. This is what you are doing: -Gonzaw thought Blurry was scum because of X -Blurry was X because he was town -Therefore, gonzaw knew that Blurry was X because he was town, and therefore is scum lol try harder. You are sinking yourself deeper and deeper. You are implying that when we scumhunt in the future, we don't take into account the "I'm a newb" responses, you are implying that we shouldn't let players defend themselves, and you are implying that we shouldn't pressure other players by the obvious statements they say. Show nested quote +
Gonzaw doesn't even really defend himself here. He just curses a lot and says "you are twisting my words, stop it".
BECAUSE HE FUCKING WAS!! What? You want me to make a 10 pages rebuttal of his terrible case? His case is so fucking wrong it woudln't be too hard. Show nested quote +There is no reason to fake claim here. Probulous breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread, if that isn't proof enough. Prob was spot on against Sheth. Gonzaw is pretty much the only person that against Prob right now. Gonz then posts this weird post above about WIFOM non-sense, something he is against. What? There is no reason to fake-claim? Are you fucking kidding me? IT'S FUCKING LYLO IF HE FAKECLAIMS, AND THERE IS NO DT, THEN HE COULD HAVE SURVIVED D4 WITH HIS SCUMBUDDY AND WIN THE GAME Are you fucking kidding me? Also "Prob breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread". Do you think scum can't do that? Even more, that breadcrumb was so "hidden", that scum can do it, but then never fakeclaim blue anyways, knowing the "breadcrumb" is so fucking hidden no other townie will ever find it. And what WIFOM nonsense are you talking about? Of course it's WIFOM, and it should be noted, BECAUSE YOU FUCKING GUYS JUST ASSUMED HE WAS TELLING THE TRUTH. Right : rolleyes : Are you kidding me? Are you saying that Ver's Guide is wrong? If someone acts in a way opposite of what Ver says in the guide, I find that evidence enough to be suspicious, because I trust most of what that guide says... It's also why they even put links to those guides here in the first place!Also, wow. I'm almost convinced both of you are teaming up on me. Either you blatantly sheep Prob's aweful case against me without any reason whatsoever, or you just skimmed through my filter and used strawman, misinterpretation and just blatantly wrong statements to paint me suspicious. Not only that, both of you are saying "You are fucking suspicious and I think you are scum, but hey, gonzaw is scum too, we could lynch him first" Hey I can do that too!! "Hey Cats', you are fucking suspicious and I think you are scum, but hey, Paper is scum too, we could lynch him first" ##Vote: PaperscrapsHowever, I'll still fucking check Cephiro, everybody's just assuming he's fucking confirmed townie by this point is not funny. Although that's a very good reason to fucking continue tunneling me Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 22:35 Paperscraps wrote:Cats inconsistent play doesn't strike gonzaw as odd?
By gonzaw's logic, Cats and gonzaw's minimal and evasive communication should be something to note then.
Cats is all over the place with accusations and changes of heart. Yes, his fucking inconsistent play strike me as odd, but his behaviour didn't. At least at that point, now I know I was wrong.
Some points to be made about this hilarious post.
1. First off gonzaw is only being defensive and not offensive. I understand his back is against the wall, but you can't win unless you score a few points.
2. His responses to my posts are poor. He laughs at some of the points I make. He avoids some points all together. He uses a bunch of curse words. None of this tells me anything.
gonzaw wrote:
I don't have to give a detailed summary of why I think someone is scum dammit!
This is huge scum tell to me. Answers are in the details.
gonzaw wrote:
Are you saying that Ver's Guide is wrong?
If someone acts in a way opposite of what Ver says in the guide, I find that evidence enough to be suspicious, because I trust most of what that guide says...
You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.
I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!
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On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.
I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!
Seriously? You're saying I'm being passive and that I haven't posted analysis against you. Don't you remember the long argument I made against you? The one that started the bus for your lynch? The one I re-quoted on THE LAST PAGE? Please tell me you haven't forgotten about it that fast. I even posted our interactions after my analysis, where you poorly defended yourself and dug yourself a deeper hole. I not going to repost that on every page just so you can't say I haven't posted analysis against you. As for your new analysis against me, I answered it (below), and you agreed with me, saying I made good points. The other sentences you post don't really mean anything. Just because you call something filler doesn't make it filler, that was the crux of my argument that you later agreed in the same post.
On January 14 2012 04:37 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. This is an obvious deflection of attention from Cats' own self again. He doesn't provide a case against Gonzaw.Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. So reading a filter is a bad thing? To answer your question, I did read mostly through your filter, but important posts I read through the thread to get the general context. What is your point here?You say this: (Paperscraps says this, I moved this line for clarificiation of my point above. "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: I didn't say that "you HAD to lynch Sheth". I said that it was impossible to prove that you knew these things at the time they came up. It is a goodbye post, but it doesn't bring anything useful to the table. Filler is filler.On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.
Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing! Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. Thanks for clarifying/justifying your thinking here, this is your first solid point in an otherwise useless post.
For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.
As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th I was just stating the stance communication between gonzaw and you. I will let others take away from that what they wish.That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. Alright this is your second solid point. Vote up gonzaw then.You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. This is a pretty blatant admission to being scum. Thanks for making so clear now. Stress cause people to do weird things. Like post rapidly perhaps or out of character. Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 02:19 CatsnHats wrote:On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;
If he flips green.. we lose? lol
The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.
Well.. thoughts? Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa. Just note Cats is using the same argument here against me and that I accuse him of. OMGUS He doesn't provide any analysis to back it up. My responses are bolded. Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws. @ bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this. @ Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats.
This last part of his argument is my favorite. I ask bkrow why Paper flipping red means Gonz is green and Ceph is red, because I think they (Paper and Gonz) are bussing against one another to gain town cred. Paper tries to shoot holes in my question with some BS about OMGUS, and then three lines down........ he asks bkrow the same question I did. LOL
And Gonzaw doesn't require a full written out argument with an image macro and multiple quotes to convince people he's mafia. Just look at basically any post he has made since Sheth was lynched. He's overly defensive, using cursing, rhetorical questions, and anger to cover up for the fact that he has contributed NOTHING except for beginning the bus for Blurry, our medic. I'm sure he'll quote this paragraph and answer with something along the lines of, " OH YOU'RE SO FUCKING RIGHT CATS /sarcasm" He's scum, plain and simple.
This is why Paperscraps is dangerous. He writes blatantly wrong things, and since he doesn't act like Gonzaw, he might actually put doubt in your heads as to whether I'm town or scum. He needs to be put down.
##Vote: Paperscraps
How's that for being passive?
|
Okay. Case #1
CatsnHats
On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta.
Lé blah blah blah with the scumbuddy. Let's see who you have pushed for this game.
Me. (Town), Blurry (Medic), Gretorp/Paperscraps (???, I am personally leaning on Town), Xeris (Town), Cookie (Town)
And who have you protected?
Sheth (Mafia)
Hmmm.... Speaks for itself doesn't it?
On January 05 2012 01:25 CatsnHats wrote:
As for my flip-flopping of position, I hope you all can excuse it as my one noobie mistake. I want to clarify that this is my first game ever of mafia in any medium (forum or IRL), not just on TL. And you won't hear anymore noobie excuses from me after this.
Yeah... right. You deserve the award for "Most newbie cards played in one game by scum"
On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:
Tuneg,
It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.
SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.
#VOTE TUNEG Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me.
His first suspicion of scum.
On January 05 2012 01:52 CatsnHats wrote:
As for Tunkeg's aggression, right now I'm leaning towards overaggressive townie prodding for reads as opposed to a mafia running smokescreen for himself by accusing others. That being said, 3 accusations on 3 different targets in 3 subsequent posts is a little too much. If he keeps it up at that pace I'll be much more suspicious.
Isn't that what you are doing pretty much the whole game... except you're not the one starting the accusations, until lategame.
On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote:
I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious .
@Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts?
Translated: "Scumbuddy, what do you think about my suspicions? You know him irl, you know that he is scum right?"
On January 05 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote:
God you all type so fast. By the time I compose a post 5 more have popped up, including posts by AH and CM who were starting to worry me with their inactivity.
The last of the lurkers have not posted. The day started about 22 hours ago and Blurry has said nothing. That certainly doesn't bode well for him.
You want accusations, here are my slight scum reads.
RE: Xeris
Inactive early and his only posted content centers on not lynching after much discussion has already taken place amongst the town about why that is a bad idea. That would seem to be a play for a mafia freekill on N1.
RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think.
RE: Gretorp
He is the scummiest player so far. From the joke in post one to the back down in post two to this new third post, every response is just too cute and offers nothing in the way of analysis or contribution. Two to three sentence posts of no substance seem very suspicious.
My vote right now would be for Gretorp, but I'm not going to make it official cause I still want to hear more from the three I listed here and Blurry. I hope this is enough for you Jitsu.
As I posted in my N1 case on Cats, blaming 2 lurkers and 1 poorly playing townie is quite easy to do. Especially when you're mafia and want them dead. Notice how he agrees on CookieMaker's pro-town post on me. (One bigger analysis on me, where Cookie read me as very pro-town, spoilered below:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote:My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler +Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence:+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.
I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. Show nested quote + On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. Anti-town evidence:+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: Show nested quote + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town
On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote:
Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me.
Two lines of text. That's... a lot. Spoilered below:
+ Show Spoiler +RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think.
This screams "Hey strong townie, I am town too, please believe me, I can be your personal little helper". But in reality, behind this is a very devious scum, trying to find protection behind our DT.
On January 05 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote:
@Jitsu You have so much wrong about me I don't know where to start. I waited around 2 hours and 30 posts before I first commented. How is that lurking, especially for it being my first game? Others waited much longer and did not draw your attention. I was the second person to talk about Gretorp, and I was the first to call him out on his response to Tunkeg's prod. And how could I have changed my top 3 scum reads when that was the first time I posted them? Gretorp stayed on the list, Xeris advocated no-lynch, and CM had been very shady (as was explained in the post and echoed by others later). I kept pressing and pressing Gretorp because I stuck to my stance and he hadn't answered yet, but that is explained because he works all day for NASL. I await his response. I appreciate your concern, and like your aggression for me to explain myself. I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things.
This WHOLE post is just so... woah. First off: Drawing the attention to others. "I wasn't the last one to post, why are you picking on me!!??!?!"
Then a blatant lie: He was the second to call out on Gretorp's response to Tunkeg, right after ME.
His reasons for the 3 players:
1) Xeris advocates a no-lynch. (Short, although I'm pretty fine with this)
2) CM had been very shady (Your fantastic 2-liner analysis!)
3) Gretorp you were pressing and pressing on? Placing a vote on a lurker on the first day, and then excusing him with the fact that he works all day IRL isn't that much of a pressure imo.
Also, the end is just what the hell. "I have a town read for you, and I hope this clarifies things."
Translated: "I am not a threat to you, don't worry about me."
On January 05 2012 14:01 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
\
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him. That would leave CookieMaker and Xeris from my original list. They haven't done anything to be removed from it either. Prob's analysis of Cephiro is very well thought out and cited, and your follow-up is logical. But all of this talk back and forth between you too and "what happens if we lynch a green and I thought he was red, what does that make me look like to the town" talk is very circular and frankly unneeded at this point. It's just dead text to me. We should focus on who's the scummiest, not the repercussions of being wrong on your read. Be confident and we'll deal with the effects after the lynch, not before. That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp. So ##unvote Gretorp
##vote Cephiro
Scumbuddy blames you to make sure that anyone doesn't think you two are both Mafia. After Sheth and Probu make a case on me, that is ALL he needs to change his mind. He's like... case against Cephiro posted -> I'm convinced.
I love it how Sheth even asks you "Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?"
Too bad your D1 plan to get one of the active townies killed failed, because I'm coming and taking you down now.
On January 05 2012 14:04 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I know this makes me look even more bandwaggony to you Jitsu. But I can't worry about your thoughts about me. I just need to help find scum and let my play speak for itself.
Well it certainly has spoke for itself. Bandwagoning townies, protecting scummies. Is there anything more that we need to know?
On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote:
For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there.
Random fluff filler and throwing out random accusations. "I guess you could be mafia but I don't think you are". Then what the hell is the point in posting that? To try and cause others to suspect them.
On January 05 2012 15:13 CatsnHats wrote:
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again.
And now Gretorp has already dropped off the list, since Probu thinks that he is less of a threat than Xeris. "Fine, I'll just adjust my opinion accordingly."
On January 06 2012 08:30 CatsnHats wrote:
And to Gretorp: seriously where is your promised long analysis post/contribution? Don't think I've haven't forgotten. We're going to need everyone's contributions if we're going to rid the town of scum, so start POSTING.
He does this.... right after I point out that he has totally dropped the subject. /facepalm, could you be any less obvious?
On January 06 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote:
You (Jitsu), Sheth, and Probu weren't on my scum reads, you put those in my mouth. Take those 3 away, and what do you have? Gretorp, Xeris, and Cookie. That's 3! How many mafia are there? THREE.
Yep, you just randomly soft-accused them, but never said that you think they are mafia. On the other hand, you forgot to list me in that.
On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:@Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me.You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: + Show Spoiler + RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go.
Me jumping on the bandwagon? Lol. Admittingly, Probu had a case on you already, but everything I posted was original and my own analysis. Unlike your play where you just jump from target to target to please others.
On January 06 2012 10:14 CatsnHats wrote:
First thing that pops up: Cookie thought Cephiro was very pro town. This is very interesting since a lot of people had Ceph pegged as scum before we switched to Tea/CM. I'm still reading the filters, just wanted to get this out there first.
Oh they did? Why didn't I know of such. I only saw you, Probu and Sheth accusing me constantly. One mislead townie, and two scums. Way to go making me try to look worse than I do.
On January 06 2012 11:32 CatsnHats wrote:Ok guys. I don't really want to do this, but I'm going to since it really is the best for the town. I think all of you should vote to lynch me on D2. I've come to realize that I am a terrible player of this game, especially as a townie (with no role I might add!). I should have found the newbie forum or got a better idea of this game before i signed up to play it. My first few posts I made before I realized the psychological and analytical implications of this game handicapped me and I've been playing the defensive ever since. After the bad start I put myself in, my goal was to make it past D1, which I did, so I'm fine with getting lynched if it's agreeable amongst everyone (I'm sure the scum will agree). All I have really done is distract you all from the real the scum with my terrible play, and that's not fair to the town. I also admit, I haven't added much in the way of original analysis because I was afraid that it would put me in even more hot water. The obviously wasn't the right play. Maybe you all can get D2 sped up if the mods allow it so anymore scumhunting time isn't wasted. This probably isn't the correct time to do it since it's N1, but for the record. ##Vote: CatsnHatsFor the record: in light of CM/Tea turning up green, I think it takes some heat of you Ceph. You (and the rest of the town) should spend your time looking into Xeris and Gretorp (because of questionable/contradictory posting when not lurking) and pressuring AnxiousHippo, a player who has gone unnoticed to others because of all of the accusations going around. He's made filler posts, keeps making excuses for not reading through everything, and throws out a placeholder vote for Xeris and a very bandwagon vote for CookieMaker/Tea. Quoted below: Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea
##Unvote: Xeris
##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
The big breakdown. I finally nailed you against the wall, and you weren't able to defend yourself. What's left for you? THE SUPER-NEWBIE CARD! Martyring and more martyring, maybe they'll believe me. Also as your "last favour" you point out at another townie. (Hippo/bkrow). In an advanced game you would have been killed right away, but in a newbie game you saw your chance to confuse enough to give you some more time.
On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote:In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on.+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:
@CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 11:40 Probulous wrote:
Don't you dare throw in the towel! That is a shitty thing to do. Hell ask for a replacement if this is too hard for you.
If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us?
You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town.
I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And then this: Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here.
Lol.... just lol. Your clever comeback, where you were just fishing for people's reactions. And what do you come up with? Nothing. NOTHING at all. Just the worst accusations ever at Hippo. Further trying to divert attention from you. You blame Hippo for the same thing I blamed you for, ironic isn't it? And you're so happy that the townies pep-talk you, but when someone isn't the first one to do it and doesn't devote 5 lines for it, you just accuse him for bandwagoning. What the hell?
Last line: "Am I looking more town already, am I safe?"
On January 07 2012 17:02 CatsnHats wrote:EBWOP: Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote:
I'm working on the bandwagon analysis And AH, whose bandwagon analysis are you working on? Your own?
Nice ignoring that Probu just asked him to analyse the ones that were supposedly bandwagon voting on Cookie. On purpose?
On January 08 2012 00:44 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I'm going to make it more clear. I was using Prob's post to show that AH's post was very similar to Prob's, and since AH's was much later, it was bandwaggony. I don't want you misunderstand what I say again.
So basically, if you're not the first one to have that opinion, you are bandwagoning. Says the king of bandwagons, who would know better?
On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
Wouldn't you know, I managed to find all the flaws in your play. And what are you doing behind your screen at the moment you wrote this post? "Thanks Ceph, now I know how to make myself look even more town".
Now you are suspecting Sheth. Because.... Prob posted an analysis on him. And the king of bandwagons is aboard.
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.
The start is just blablabla with your scumbuddy, talking a bit to avoid suspicions. However, then comes the interesting part. Your scumbuddy provides you a nice line to make you look better, and you go on to soft-pressuring Probulous, but just "genuinely asking a question". Coincidence? No. Planned with Sheth? Yes.
On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats! I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler + Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:
Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.
Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious. and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. + Show Spoiler +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?
You blame Blurry for 2 WIFOM filler posts, asking others opinions. + 1 more target, aren't you changing your mind a lot.
Who do you think are even scummier than your scumbuddy? The 4 townies of course. Xeris, Gretorp, Blurry & Hippo.
HAVE TO BREAK THIS ANALYSIS FOR NOW, IT'S GETTING HUGE. MORE COMING UP AS I FINISH.
|
CatsnHats analysis continues:
On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am.
Ah, how nice. You would sacrifice yourself for the Mafia Godfather.
Best case in your opinion: Whatever Probu makes a long analysis post on. Sheesh >_>
Also, the upper bolded I find interesting. You were waiting on Sheth's defense. Of course you knew it was coming, since you had planned it all along with him. This way you could defend Sheth with a good reason, and if worst-case scenario for you would happen, meaning that Sheth would get lynched (as he did), you could just play the newbie card again. "Sheth was so devious and tricked me, guys I'm still town, I'm just really newb."
On January 09 2012 07:16 CatsnHats wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Admission of bandwaggoning. You can't claim you were suspicious of him if you didn't post anything. That statement means nothing except "I'm sheeping Prob's content." + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:41 Blurry wrote:
EBWOP:
##Vote: Liquid'Sheth
Wrong format.
If he flips something like blue or green however I think we should seriously look into Probulous. And what is this?I have a feeling you KNOW Sheth is going to flip green, and you are using this knowledge to throw suspicion on Probulous after that happens. And as I said in my other post you've really said nothing but WIFOM filler. You're playing exactly how I think a lurking mafia would play (making posts every once and a while, not committing in analysis, apologizing for not adding content, bandwagoning, etc). It seems like we are heading for a no-lynch, but I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town. ##Vote: Blurry
The king of bandwagons blames Blurry for bandwagoning. The last post is funny, Cats manages to find a flaw in the sentence which he can use against Blurry. I think you are suspecting that he could be the medic at this point, which is why you are pushing for him.
What I find interesting here is your stance that "I am not voting for Sheth because I think he's town."... What happened the day after? KEEEL BLURREZ!!!!!1111
On January 09 2012 07:19 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 06:55 Cephiro wrote:
Hey everyone! It took me longer to get back than expected, but I am going to post a lot of stuff before the lynch. Should be done in 1-1,5 hours or less, will post each post as I finish it.
In the meanwhile, I am not going to vote for anyone else than Cats or Sheth today. Sheth lynch > Cats lynch > No lynch IMO.
(Also, don't even think I am bandwagoning on Sheth, I would probably have posted my case even before Probulous if I hadn't been busy IRL.)
First I will simply browse through the thread and reply to anything I feel necessary, and then I will re-read everyone's filters and post my analysis. Ceph you better come through on your promise. And that statement I bolded is BS. That's sheeping and you know it. And why arent't you going to vote for anyone other than me or Sheth, cause you know we're the green targets?
This was hilarious when I first time read it. Blaming me for sheeping? Lmfao. You are claiming me to sheep because Probu beat me to it. Well, I beat Probu to it on D1, how about that? You're trying to make me look bad again here on purpose. You two green targets? More like the most blood-red I've seen in ages.
On January 09 2012 09:58 CatsnHats wrote:
FUCK. I didn't want to do it, but Sheth told me too.
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
... LOL. Of course he did. He wanted you to gain a bit more of town-cred. Why would you else vote for him if you were so sure he is town, even when you claimed that you wouldn't vote for Sheth on D2 no matter what?
On January 09 2012 10:49 CatsnHats wrote:
You guys think I'm mafia, especially since I didn't vote for Sheth until the end, but I'm not. That's why I said "Well fuck I'm dead." Since I'm town and we lynched mafia, I said "Nice work Probulous and Cephiro." What isn't there to understand?
"I've given up on this game even though I'm a townie, I just can't defend my claims". And the Newbie, King of bandwagons card has gained a special trait: Hopeless! (Has a chance of causing even more confusion among the townspeople).
On January 09 2012 12:08 CatsnHats wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 09 2012 11:49 Jitsu wrote:Mafia - Sheth Cats Blurry Next game.  I agree with you on Blurry (since I voted for him), but I sir am town.
Of course you agree. You want rid of the townie, that you are even suspecting to be a medic.
On January 09 2012 13:31 CatsnHats wrote:
Probulous I agree Xeris>Gretorp in terms of scumminess out of the lurkers. I've stated my suspicion of Blurry a couple of times too, he hasn't been helping himself lately. If I had to pick 3 for the 2 spots remaining it would be Blurry, AH/Bkrow, and Xeris. I'll give Bkrow some time to prove himself though. Also, Gonzaw is null for me right now. The way he placeholder voted Sheth (even if he was mafia) didn't sit well with me. I need to recheck the filter to confirm.
"I agree with the strong townie that I'll convince to make me look better in the endgame"
Then cleverly planting the seed to cast doubt on Gonzaw.... THE OTHER SCUMBUDDY! Protect one, bus the other?
On January 09 2012 13:46 CatsnHats wrote:Alright I rechecked Gonz's filter. Other than the bullshit back and forth between him and Tunkeg (poor tunk  ), he's played very pro-town up to this point. He's really been on Blurry and Xeris, which I obviously like. And sure he ghosted your Sheth read, but I've been much more guilty of that offence so I can't hold it against him.
Ah, wasn't the right time to awake suspicions on him yet? Obviously you like that your scumbuddy has also been trying to lynch Blurry, your suspect for the medic. And a lurker, who are basically free points for you. You name one bad thing (just incase to not look too good), about him ghosting his Sheth read, but you quickly nullify that by saying you've been even worse.
On January 09 2012 14:46 CatsnHats wrote:
Yeah I think Sheth new he could take me down with him I've screwed myself over so bad with my wishy-washy save myself play. Smart play on his part.
..... You do know that it's not allowed to have more than 4 newb cards in your deck? >_>
But it's your gameplan, so cheating a bit doesn't matter eh. I haven't even bothered to count how many times you go back on your newbieness as an excuse, even though you said you wouldn't in one of your first posts.
On January 10 2012 07:40 CatsnHats wrote:
@Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that.
Jitsu is on to you. What to do you do? Plan: Eliminate Jitsu, activated.
On January 10 2012 08:19 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Before I go to watch the game (steelers v broncos) I'll put my vote down where I think it can do some good. As again a no-lynch is a bad option, I'll understand if you lynch me as opposted to no one, but please this is just going to tell you I'm town and force you to look harder at Probulous and those who bandwagoned me for no reason or bad reasons, which I think you can already do now. I would much rather see Blurry or Cats lynched today (Cephiro if I thought I could get him possibly, and Gonzaw I havn't done a full read so I don't feel ok lynching him yet).
Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.
##Vote: Catsnhats This is kinda getting into WIFOM territory, but do you really think Sheth would say this if I was actually his scumbuddy?
Of course he would say that, to make you look better when he flips. Some more material you can use in your defense, no-one else brings this up anymore.
Well... at least Sheth was honest 
On January 10 2012 08:55 CatsnHats wrote:Alright well I just thought I would mention it. Clearly everybody have their minds made up. Nothing I can do can change your opinions of me at this point. I'll keep posting until I'm lynched on D3 though (kinda waiting on the new people to post). That way when I flip green, you can first laugh at how bad of a town I was (don't worry, I've been laughing too ), and then you can look through my filter for some reads.
Yeah right. Keep claiming you've given up on hope already, to cling to your last chances even harder than before.
On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts).
Wouldn't you know.....
On January 10 2012 13:10 CatsnHats wrote:
@Blurry I have to admit that shit was hilarious, you picked one of my favorite "CatsnHats" pictures. But you literally add NOTHING new, and much off that is old material. The rest of the town has been on my case the whole game, why would you post that? It's blatant sheeping. You're just trying to make yourself look good to the town by picking the easiest target. I'm convinced your scum. This will be interpreted as OMGUS but I don't care, I voted for you last time until Sheth asked me to switch (hindsight is 20/20 but I really thought he was town you guys).
##Vote: Blurry
Your suspected medic makes a bad case which is just blatant sheeping against you. You got a darn lucky jackpot right here. I can just imagine how happy you have been reading Blurry's case, knowing you can use it against him to get him lynched on D3.
On January 10 2012 13:40 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 13:27 Probulous wrote:
Honestly Cats, if you flip town you will have learnt the most important thing about mafia. You have to take positions based on cases and stick by them. Even if you are wrong and look like an idiot that is much better than being a flake. To be fair Blurry has gotten away with it because you looked worse. He will be getting a thorough examination.
Your play has gotten better over time but unfortunately too late. No hard feelings I hope. Nope, no hard feelings (except for this quote of yours: "He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave." That kinda hurt .). When I do play again (which will be a while since I have college starting back Wednesday), I will play it SO much because of all that I have learned. That being said, I'm not giving up yet. I'll push for Blurry until I'm lynched, and if I am, hopefully you'll go after him next. Also, I only voted for Sheth after he told me to because I thought he was TOWN and he was only doing it because a mislynch is better than a no-lynch for the town. I don't see how that is hard to understand.
When everything else fails, apply to emotions! You might've made it work on Probu, but that's not gonna work on me.
On January 10 2012 14:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Sometimes I feel like we are. People can say I'm terrible, but I least I've been active. I'm probably the 2nd most prolific poster now. And yeah my gambit was really bad. I was such a newb though. I thought that was an original/novel play, it didn't even occur to me that others have probably tried that before and were hated for it. Oh well, lesson learned.
"I'm active and trying to contribute, don't you guys see that I'm town?" Now that Jitsu who was on to you is dead, you move on to phase 2 of your plan.... from newbie to the town-saving contributor!
+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got! Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg) A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.
For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:
##Vote Gretorp Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry##Vote: PaperscrapsI look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.
Here you go on to brainwash Probu even more, trying to ensure him that you are town. You do a surprising move by starting to blame Paperscraps instead of Blurry.... not. You had a clever plan, but not enough. You didn't find enough mistakes in Blurry's play, so you made a case on Paperscraps instead. But Blurry was your suspected medic...... well, no worries, since you know that your scumbuddy Gonzaw is going to make a case against him soon, and then you can jump on the bandwagon once again, riding into the sunset with another stain of innocent blood.
On January 11 2012 08:00 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 07:01 Probulous wrote: Much better  This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning. Who do you think is the other mafia? Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!!
"Yess, plan worked, the strong townie I'm going to backstab tonight is going to make me look good."
Of course you know the 3rd mafia is between Me, Xeris and Gonzaw, since Gonzaw has been your scumbuddy all along....
On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former.
Apologies, to try and not wake my suspicions, but to win me on your side also. You almost got me >.>
Then praising the Probu, ensuring that he will make you look better as you deviously backstab him next night.
Blurry is town for now, because you know Gonzaw is about to bring his case on Blurry. You're just waiting patiently...
On January 11 2012 14:44 CatsnHats wrote:
I think Paperscraps is the strongest lynch target right now, I've made my case and he is my #1. And I'll keep making it as he continues to post. I would vote for Xeris/Kronhjort but I fully expect him to be mod-killed, so that would be a waste of a vote/lynch. I think Blurry is town (and I've made my case for him being so), but there is enough suspicion surrounding him from others that I would vote for him if there was no other way to get a lynch. That would be a last resort though. Assuming Xeris is modkilled, Paperscraps>>>Blurry in my opinion. Reading town sentiment though, it sounds like it is going to come down between me and Paperscraps.
And here you make the slick move to excuse yourself on voting for Blurry soon (in bolded). Very well played indeed, but not well enough. You keep pressing for Paperscraps, since you want him killed on D4 to ensure the win for scum.
On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:
And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.
From your response to Paperscraps.
He is actually trying to provide his own opinions of you, but you quickly claim it as blatant bandwagoning. When he talks about Xeris's flip, you bring up how lynching a lurker isn't town-cred for him. Well... weren't you the one pushing for lurkers all early game long?
On January 12 2012 06:22 CatsnHats wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point. These are very good points Blurry, glad to see you are posting again. What do you think of my case against Paperscraps (my new thoughts on you are included in that post)? Would you be willing to vote for him, or are you dead set towards only voting for me this lynch?
"Well hello there soon-to-be-killed Medic!" "What do you think of my case, haven't I improved a lot? Aren't I a clear townie?"
At this point you've clearly picked up your play, and you're looking dangerously innocent. Here you are trying to convince Blurry off you, just to ensure his death further.
On January 12 2012 08:41 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2012 08:31 Blurry wrote:
Since I do not think it would matter if I tried to disprove Gonzaw's points, I won't even try:
I am the medic
I have been healing probulous since Night 1. Do what you will with this information... WHAT THE FUCK. If you are telling the truth you just fucked us over. You are going to die tonight now if that's true.
And your scumbuddy Gonzaw lands the big fish. And it wen't even better than expected, he claimed medic! This is the moment where you jump in and "Omg really no damn why did you do that?", when in reality you are laughing as your devious plan worked even better than expected.
On January 12 2012 09:15 CatsnHats wrote:
You role claimed after you were pressured by one person? OMG why?! Cephiro makes alot of good points towards you actually being a medic, and I'm about 85% sure you are. Well that leaves me and Paperscraps up for vote in 45 minutes. I would like to think I have done enough to redeem myself to live another day (I don't think I will be targeted in the night because of all of this new info). I think we should vote Paperscraps. Do you agree Blurry? bkrow? Probulous? Cephiro? Gonzaw?
You are that sure of him being a medic? But you end up voting for him.... And isn't it surprising that you won't be killed in the night, since you're the player that kills everyone at night...
On January 12 2012 09:22 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2012 09:17 Probulous wrote:On January 12 2012 08:43 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: Probulous hasn't been targeted for a lynch yet, so we can't tell for sure if Blurry's telling the truth. Whilst this claim is somewhat unexpected, it doesn't really change our vote today. I think it unlikely that blurry was going to get lynched and we can let the mafia deal with him tonight. Either he protects me tonight and I survive, or mafia target him and I surive. I die, you lynch him. If he flips blue we can take a look at people targeting him if he survives he has a lot of explaining to do. Cats, this is just so wrong I don't know what to make of it. A medic saves people from a night kill, not the lynch  Oops sorry Probulous I meant nightkill instead of lynch. That TOTALLY changes the meaning of my post. Thanks for catching it.
Here you did an intentional mistake, just to make you look more newbie than you actually are. Damn you are tricky.
On January 12 2012 09:26 CatsnHats wrote:
I'm prepared for those consequences. Paperscraps is my scum read, I posted my case, and I will stand by it. His responses to my claims haven't done much to lift my suspicion of him, either.
You will stand by it... for 15 more minutes. Then you can blame him for the whole D4 as you get the medic killed.
On January 12 2012 09:53 CatsnHats wrote:
bkrow/Cephiro we HAVE to have a lynch today. We can deal with the consequences after the lynch. Vote Blurry! Hurry!
Why would you say this? Because lynching the medic gets your scum team in a very good position. No townie would say the bolded.
Whew, almost finished....
|
Final part of CatsnHats analysis
On January 12 2012 09:55 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2012 09:54 Probulous wrote:On January 12 2012 09:50 CatsnHats wrote:
Xeris (MIA) and Blurry are not going to vote for Blurry. So we would need 5 out of the 6 to get Blurry lynched. It's easier to get me or Paper lynched because Blurry would actually vote for one of us. We cannot no-lynch. I would rather no lynch than lynch a townie. There is no reason for Blurry to lie. Saving your skin by claiming only works when you claim early. I want him lynched but if that can't happen, then I will vote Paperscraps. Gonz, what is your take on this? WHAT THE FUCK. 5 minutes left. Make a decision. We don't have time.
Here Probu brings up the logical town choice, rather be safe than sorry, since the medic is important.
What do you do? Pressure him to lynch him of course. And unfortunately you succeed.
On January 12 2012 09:57 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro we NEED your vote!
Indeed you did. And what a horrible mistake I made. I let you trick me too on top of outsmarting Probu. But that will not happen again.
On January 12 2012 10:06 CatsnHats wrote:
Paperscraps. Did anyone notice he went MIA during that last hour of shitstorm.
And now that your plan was successful, you move on to finish your plan and secure the win by pushing for Paperscraps lynch on D4.
On January 12 2012 10:11 CatsnHats wrote:
GOD DAMN IT. After the night we are now in MYLO territory.
You bring it up after the medic has been killed... LOL. A townie would have brought up that before, not dealt with this "consequence" later.
On January 12 2012 10:25 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
I will explain my play just before daybreak.
You guys can lynch me tomorrow if I survive the night. Cephiro, I think I have the whole reasoning behind it figured out. But if he's going to explain before daybreak I'll wait for him to tell his reasons. I know this will make me look suspicious. On another note, I'm still convinced Paperscraps is mafia, and I think he should be our target for day 3. Did anyone else find it suspicious that he disappeared during that?
And at this point you are on to the fact that Probu is the DT. "Nice, now I can kill the DT tomorrow, hopefully I've played wishy-washy enough that he hasn't checked me."
And damn right, lucky you he didn't. And you've brainwashed him to the point where doesn't even consider you as scum. So devious. SO DEVIOUS.
And you keep pushing for Paperscraps lynch here...
On January 13 2012 09:56 CatsnHats wrote:
I don't really know what to say right now... I just waiting for the night post. I have a lot to write, I'm just not posting it right now for timing reasons. I will say I think Gonzaw and Paperscraps are mafia (in case I get killed in a little bit). I'm more confident in Gonzaw than Paperscraps.
Now you are afraid you might die during the night..? LOL.
Also, now you're starting to bus on your scumbuddy, to make you (or him) look better if one of you gets lynched.
On January 13 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Gonzaw never posts anything of substance. Just look at his defense post above. If you even FOS him a little bit, he goes into WTF fuck fuck fuck are you kidding me? mode. All of his post are just little incredulous statements that mean nothing followed by a question mark.
And here it goes. And so the two scumbuddies start pointing fingers at each other, to make the other one gain town-cred in case things go wrong.
On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.
Making up a story here aren't you. You know very well if he had checked you, you'd be hanging in a rope by now. I can just imagine the relief when you saw that he didn't have a check on you.
On January 13 2012 10:24 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:On January 13 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, your thoughts on my claim? However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide. Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."
Another planned slip to make you look better?
On January 13 2012 10:38 CatsnHats wrote:
With me and bkrow as town, here are the possible scum combos:
Gonzaw, Paperscraps
Cephiro, Gonzaw
Cehiro, Paperscraps
I put these in order of probability in my eyes.
And who is the most likely scum combo? Your scumbuddy (Gogogo more town cred if he dies), and your today's victim Paper.
On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win!
"Trust in me, Probu did too, we can still win this!"
Nice try, but no! I wonder whether you are planning on night-killing me or lynching me tomorrow.
On January 13 2012 11:11 CatsnHats wrote:Cephiro: This was my case on Paperscraps. I've included the subsequent interactions between Paper and I as well. Sorry it's a little hard to read since there is so much, but if you open up all the nested quotes and really read it I think you'll see that this is a really good case against Paperscraps. + Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got! Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.
For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:
##Vote Gretorp Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry##Vote: PaperscrapsI look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred. On January 12 2012 06:18 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. 1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them. 2. As for your analysis of Blurry: On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha. 3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis. 4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either. + Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded): Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.
All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.
##Vote: CatsNHats This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though. He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us.
Him sheeping against Blurry? And what did you do....
I think you are avoiding to make a case on Gonzaw on purpose. To make him look just a little better. You think we should lynch Paperscraps first, because that would win you the game. Not gonna work.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. You say this: "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.
Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing! Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. Show nested quote +
For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.
As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it.
"For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him."
I laughed my ass off when I re-read your filter and found this. Indeed, if you manage to win that, it's certainly thanks to the fact that you managed to trick him into believing you are town.
In the early-game you are obviously trying to avoid scum-reads on your buddy Gonzaw, so that he wouldn't get DT checked or lynched. But as the game goes later, you build up your bussing situation that has it's grand finale today. Clever play indeed.
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.) I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident). + Show Spoiler +On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps
If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.
I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you. Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game. + Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
WIFOM alert, which is more likely?
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here, + Show Spoiler +On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:
I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?
I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?
Playing the newbie card again at the start of the message. Then you are just saying you can't defend yourself, and try to skip it. A townie would never say they can't defend themselves.
Then you're trying the emotion-way again, asking me to trust in you. I did that too much on D3, but it's over now.
You then bolded the "correct" case, which is bussing your scumbuddy. In reality, BOTH of those cases are correct.
And you keep saying that a case on Gonzaw isn't needed because both townies suspecting him are dead. You keep saying how he is obviously scum, and then keep trying to pressure Paperscraps as the more dangerous choice. I think you want Paperscraps dead, because a townie lynch would win you the game. I'm not gonna fall for that, it's you or Gonzaw today.
##Vote CatsnHats
For the record: CatsnHats is my strongest scumread, second to none other than Gonzaw himself. But I really need a break now, will post my Gonzaw-case a bit later. (Will do it way before the deadline, don't worry.)
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EBWOP: Gonzaw being second to no other than CatsnHats*
Just noticed that while skimming through >.>
That does NOT make him any less scum though. Gonzaw is the other scum, I stand by that.
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##Unvote
##Vote CatsnHats
@Cephiro: Great logical analysis on CatsnHats. I am changing my vote to CatsnHats, because first off I think he is scum as well and secondly we have a split vote between the scum and need a majority on one of them.
@bkrow: Time to make up your mind on who to lynch! Pressure is on!
2 votes for Paperscraps
2 votes for CatsnHats
The age long battle!
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@CatsnHats: Responses in bold.
On January 14 2012 15:12 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.
I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!
Seriously? You're saying I'm being passive and that I haven't posted analysis against you. Don't you remember the long argument I made against you? The one that started the bus for your lynch? The one I re-quoted on THE LAST PAGE? Please tell me you haven't forgotten about it that fast. I even posted our interactions after my analysis, where you poorly defended yourself and dug yourself a deeper hole. I not going to repost that on every page just so you can't say I haven't posted analysis against you. As for your new analysis against me, I answered it (below), and you agreed with me, saying I made good points. The other sentences you post don't really mean anything. Just because you call something filler doesn't make it filler, that was the crux of my argument that you later agreed in the same post. I meant more recent analysis. You can stick to that old post if you want, but it doesn't seem to be convincing people any more. As for defending myself poorly, that is purely subjective and biased.
Anyone else notice the general hostile tone in this paragraph towards me? That is not going to help you Cats.Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 04:37 Paperscraps wrote:On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. This is an obvious deflection of attention from Cats' own self again. He doesn't provide a case against Gonzaw.Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. So reading a filter is a bad thing? To answer your question, I did read mostly through your filter, but important posts I read through the thread to get the general context. What is your point here?You say this: (Paperscraps says this, I moved this line for clarificiation of my point above. "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: I didn't say that "you HAD to lynch Sheth". I said that it was impossible to prove that you knew these things at the time they came up. It is a goodbye post, but it doesn't bring anything useful to the table. Filler is filler.On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.
Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing! Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. Thanks for clarifying/justifying your thinking here, this is your first solid point in an otherwise useless post.
For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.
As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th I was just stating the stance communication between gonzaw and you. I will let others take away from that what they wish.That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. Alright this is your second solid point. Vote up gonzaw then.You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. This is a pretty blatant admission to being scum. Thanks for making so clear now. Stress cause people to do weird things. Like post rapidly perhaps or out of character. On January 14 2012 02:19 CatsnHats wrote:On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;
If he flips green.. we lose? lol
The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.
Well.. thoughts? Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa. Just note Cats is using the same argument here against me and that I accuse him of. OMGUS He doesn't provide any analysis to back it up. My responses are bolded. Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws. @ bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this. @ Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats. This last part of his argument is my favorite. I ask bkrow why Paper flipping red means Gonz is green and Ceph is red, because I think they (Paper and Gonz) are bussing against one another to gain town cred. Paper tries to shoot holes in my question with some BS about OMGUS, and then three lines down........ he asks bkrow the same question I did. LOL That is a legitimate question to ask bkrow, because it doesn't make any sense why Ceph would be scum if I flipped red, because gonzaw is obviously scum.
I wasn't shooting holes in your question. I had the same question as you. I was shooting holes in your statement, " I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa." This is what is OMGUS. I accused you of bussing gonz to save yourself.And Gonzaw doesn't require a full written out argument with an image macro and multiple quotes to convince people he's mafia. Just look at basically any post he has made since Sheth was lynched. He's overly defensive, using cursing, rhetorical questions, and anger to cover up for the fact that he has contributed NOTHING except for beginning the bus for Blurry, our medic. I'm sure he'll quote this paragraph and answer with something along the lines of, " OH YOU'RE SO FUCKING RIGHT CATS / sarcasm" He's scum, plain and simple. You say previously you will post something on gonzaw, now you don't think that is necessary. Interesting...This is why Paperscraps is dangerous. He writes blatantly wrong things, and since he doesn't act like Gonzaw, he might actually put doubt in your heads as to whether I'm town or scum. He needs to be put down. What things do I write that are blatantly wrong? That is a vague statement. How can things that are so apparently wrong put doubt in peoples heads? That statement is a contradiction.##Vote: PaperscrapsHow's that for being passive? Haha, you seem a bit angry there bud. Not without just cause though. I would be angry with such compelling arguments against me. [/b]
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I've also been pondering some things.
@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?
Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.
@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.
I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.
Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?
In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.
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EBWOP:@Cephiro: I know you think gonzaw is scum and have provided good evidence against him in the post on Cats. What I meant by "I am very interested in your take on gonzaw." is "I am very interested in your more focused analysis on gonzaw."
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/40SWE.jpg)
