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Newbie Mini Mafia II - Page 48

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Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 14 2012 11:20 GMT
#941
On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.


I am working on the gonzaw case at the moment, but it will take me a while before I post it. You should expect to see the first part in less than three hours or so though.

It's good that you are keeping your mind open, even though I think it's starting to get quite clear that Cats and Gonzaw are the two mafia. Or at least that's my opinion, it makes perfect sense as multiple times proven in my analysis on Cats.

I am willing to lynch Gonzaw as well, since at the moment I am very confident on both of my reads. But at the moment my read is stronger on Cats, and I would like to see him hanged for his devious tricks.

You are not off the hook either, but after reading your filter multiple times, I just can't find nowhere near as many scum tells as in Gonzaw's and Cats's. Your play looks much more pro-town to me than Cats, but Gonzaw is a damn tricky case indeed.

But yeah, in my opinion we lynch Cats, then Gonzaw. Both will do.
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 12:07 GMT
#942
On January 14 2012 20:20 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.


I am working on the gonzaw case at the moment, but it will take me a while before I post it. You should expect to see the first part in less than three hours or so though.

It's good that you are keeping your mind open, even though I think it's starting to get quite clear that Cats and Gonzaw are the two mafia. Or at least that's my opinion, it makes perfect sense as multiple times proven in my analysis on Cats.

I am willing to lynch Gonzaw as well, since at the moment I am very confident on both of my reads. But at the moment my read is stronger on Cats, and I would like to see him hanged for his devious tricks.

You are not off the hook either, but after reading your filter multiple times, I just can't find nowhere near as many scum tells as in Gonzaw's and Cats's. Your play looks much more pro-town to me than Cats, but Gonzaw is a damn tricky case indeed.

But yeah, in my opinion we lynch Cats, then Gonzaw. Both will do.


WIFOM: The only reason I had any suspicion of the possibility that gonzaw and you might be the last two mafia was because you were delayed in making a case solely against gonzaw and pushing Cats. I was thinking you were going to make a case against gonzaw first, because he seems more scummy to me than Cats, but not by much. If by some miracle Cats was innocent, however unlikely, then switching gears to get Cats lynched instead gonzaw would cause the town to lose.

I think this is very unlikely.

I am over thinking things. I agree with you. It is clear that Cats and gonzaw are the last two mafia.

I am glad to see the town is heading in the right direction.

All we need now is for bkrow to wake up!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 14 2012 16:18 GMT
#943
Just to inform if someone (probably many of you?) are especially waiting for my Gonz read, I will need a bit more time due to some irl stuff messing up my schedule. Will provide it early enough so that everyone will have time to go through it though, don't worry about that. Posting a huge analysis just before the deadline would be quite a dick move and only cause confusion imo.
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 14 2012 16:49 GMT
#944
On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.

@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.

@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.


No, it doesn't surprise me. He's been convinced I'm mafia from day one, and he can't let it go. All the early game has clouded his judgement. I already said I can't defend my early play because I know how it looks. I admitted to wishy washy ness and bandwagoning because I didn't know how to play yet and I didn't want to die. There is so much evidence against me as mafia that it's hilarious. No person who was actually scum would play that bad, especially since they have a QT to communicate and help each other. That explanation takes care of the first half of his 3 page analysis against me. The other half is him mocking me and coming up with WIFOM reasons behind my posts. I'll answer those later.

I guess it's possible that Cephiro and Gonzaw are the mafia, that would be the case if you were town. I'm almost positive Gonzaw is mafia, that leaves you and Cephiro, the two players that are way more dangerous than him, for the one other mafia spot. The reason I still think Ceph could still be town is... well, why wouldn't a townie make a case against me? It's easy to do and the evidence is pretty overwhelming. And he did help with Sheth and has played consistently since D1.

Looks like its between Gonzaw and me. I guess it doesn't really matter if I get lynched D4 or D5, the town loses the game either way.

##Unvote: Paperscraps
##Vote: Gonzaw
meow
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:27 GMT
#945
I have less than 3 before I leave for work and won't be back before the deadline. I would like to what hear bkrow has to say though before I go.

I won't be able to change my vote to gonzaw if compelling evidence or a defense was made by anyone. (hint hint CatsnHats)

@CatsnHats: You really aren't helping yourself by changing your vote here. Also stop making blanket statements that Cephiro and I are wrong without providing proof/analysis. You are always saying, "I will answer such and such later" or "I will make an argument later". None of this is helping you. It is doing the opposite, it is hurting you. Also seems like you are throwing in the towel again. You do have one thing going for you though, being consistent in your inconsistency.

Cats I am giving you a bit of a reprieve here to prove yourself or something before we send you to the gallows. Find some holes in Cephiro or Me! Do something. The more information you give me the better. I haven't completely given up that Cephiro and gonzaw could be the last mafia. This is unlikely in light of all the evidence against you. Evidence in which Cephiro and I took the time to post with actual analysis. I can't justify a change without if you keep playing like this.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 14 2012 17:29 GMT
#946
Vote Count:

Paperscraps (1): Gonzaw

CatsnHats (2): Cephiro, Paperscraps

Gonzaw (1): CatsnHats

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. the day ends in about 7 hours and 30 minutes from now.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:37 GMT
#947
EBWOP: I am taking a risk here, by giving you this little pep-talk Cats. It could make me look bad in Ceph's and bkrow's eyes. I am willing to risk it though if you can prove to me that Ceph is mafia, with analysis.

No one can be completely trusted here at the end.

Ceph has claimed to be great at mind games and could have been letting us duke it out and side with the player who made the better case against the other, which I think is me of course. Essentially letting town kill itself. Overall I think this very unlikely, but I would like to cover all bases.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 17:50 GMT
#948
@gonzaw: I haven't forgotten that Cats and Ceph could be the last mafia as well. I think this possibility is very small. I am not going to feel bad either if town loses because of this. You have only made the situation worse with all of your laughable posts as of recent.

I will give you same ultimatum I have given Cats. Prove to me with non-rage induced analysis that Cats and Ceph are cohorts. Go on the offensive for once!
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 14 2012 18:40 GMT
#949
On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:gonzaw's response to my argument against him was kind of hilarious. He is digging his own grave at the moment.


Right:

"Wow, he made a good response, and found the flaws on my post and the reasons for it, what should I do?"
"I know, I'll say his post is hilarious and never address it, that will be okay".


Some points to be made about this hilarious post.
1. First off gonzaw is only being defensive and not offensive. I understand his back is against the wall, but you can't win unless you score a few points.


What about me fucking saying you are scum is not offensive?


I can basicly prove you are scum by your behaviour this day. It's so transparent you are scum it's not funny, and I'm sure BK will see that too.

2. His responses to my posts are poor. He laughs at some of the points I make. He avoids some points all together. He uses a bunch of curse words. None of this tells me anything.



Wow, the contradiction is so bad it hurts...

You say I avoid "some points altogether".


Guess what? YOU ARE AVOIDING ALL OF MY POINTS ALTOGETHER TOO.

You are saying my responses are "poor", but you don't even address them, good job!




This is huge scum tell to me. Answers are in the details.


Just because I don't post about the "details" doesn't mean I don't take them into account.
Strawman!


You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!


Then can you tell me why the flying fuck they put the links to those guides here in the first place?



Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia


No, you are making mistakes/contradictions, and cats is slipping under the pressure.



Also, we are at LYLO not MYLO for fucks sake, learn the difference.



On January 15 2012 02:50 Paperscraps wrote:
@gonzaw: I haven't forgotten that Cats and Ceph could be the last mafia as well. I think this possibility is very small. I am not going to feel bad either if town loses because of this. You have only made the situation worse with all of your laughable posts as of recent.

I will give you same ultimatum I have given Cats. Prove to me with non-rage induced analysis that Cats and Ceph are cohorts. Go on the offensive for once!



lol, you want me to "prove" that the other players, who are not you are mafia.

You see, that's impossible, since you are mafia.


That leaves me with convincing Cephiro and bkrow that I am town and CatsnHats is scum.


Wow, so previously you were convinced that both me and cats were scum, and now you are saying "Oh people, I know this is WIFOM, but what if Cephiro is scum? HMM?".

What's with this sudden change of mind?

Oh I know, you are just sheeping my previous suggestion. You are trying to create chaos and confusion. There are like 6-7 hours remaining before the day ends, and now you want others to "prove" Cephiro is scum instead of doing it at the beginning of the day, or when that giant popcorn row started?

lol nice try, you know that will basicly end discussion until the day is over.


On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?



Wtf?

You haven't responded to my posts yet.

You haven't even stated a single reason of why you think I'm scum, you are just sheeping on Prob, and you continue doing it .


Holy scum batman!


I want Paper lynched so his logical fallacies and contradictions are finally over, and it will be fairly easy to hang cats afterwards.

But I don't mind hanging cats on this day, at least to avoid NL.




Also, I'm eager to wait for Cephiro's "case" against me, I'm sure it will be as shitty as Prob's and Paper's.
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 14 2012 18:44 GMT
#950
On January 15 2012 02:37 Paperscraps wrote:
EBWOP: I am taking a risk here, by giving you this little pep-talk Cats. It could make me look bad in Ceph's and bkrow's eyes. I am willing to risk it though if you can prove to me that Ceph is mafia, with analysis.

No one can be completely trusted here at the end.

Ceph has claimed to be great at mind games and could have been letting us duke it out and side with the player who made the better case against the other, which I think is me of course. Essentially letting town kill itself. Overall I think this very unlikely, but I would like to cover all bases.


Oh you're taking SUCH a big risk here, Paperscraps. Giving a pep-talk to the targeted townie, only another townie would do that, right? Please.

I don't think Ceph is mafia. I think you and Gonzaw are mafia. That is what I've said since Blurry was lynched (I was on you even before that) and I'm sticking to it. Cephiro called out Sheth, leading Probulous to rolecheck him. That's why we lynched Sheth. Mafia wouldn't call out a teammate so early with the existence of a DT unknown. He has pressured me on my very scummy looking play. He found Blurry's medic breadcrumbs. He has played consistently from the beginning. He gained the trust of Probulous. For all these reasons, I think Cephiro is town. I don't have to write an analysis for you on why I think he is mafia when I don't think that's the case.

Why does me switching my vote to Gonzaw from you make me look bad? Both of you are my scum reads. It doesn't matter about the order. I've said that before. I do think you are more dangerous than Gonz, but if it's between me and him for lynch, you better believe I'm going to vote him over you.

After Cephiro posts his analysis on Gonzaw I'm sure you'll agree with it and change your vote if he changes his.


meow
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 14 2012 19:02 GMT
#951
On January 13 2012 17:09 bkrow wrote:
As explained earlier this is all happening at a pretty poor time; any day during this week would have been perfect but this weekend is going to be hectic.

Basically, my thoughts come down to this. We have the following list

Paperscraps
CatsnHats
Cephiro
Gonzaw

From that above list 2 are scum and 2 are town. There was a considerable case mounted against Paper prior to Blurry's fuck up and i believe he most likely would have been lynched if not for the worst role claim in history. I have not forgotten about that, nor do i believe that it would be the wrong choice to lynch Paper.

However, both Jitsu and Prob have suggested Gonz as a viable lynch target. His general posting attitude and demeanour is not very town like as it is very aggressive. The consolation is that this brings a lot of attention to his posts which is not ideal if he was mafia.

Paper launched an offensive against Gonz; so if he is scum, it is likely that Gonz is not scum
Cats launched an attack against Paper; so same logic as above

I read through Ceph's filter and i honestly think the kid is a townie based on his posts; so now this just puts me in a position of Paper and Cats being scum, which i don't think is likely based on the above.

I think lynching Paper is our best bet at the moment - the lynch on Blurry REALLY fucked us up; lynching Paper gives us a lot of useful information on Gonz and Cats.


Please stick with this bkrow. Lynching Paperscraps today is the only way I can see the town winning the game. It's safe to assume you'll be nightkilled because you are the only confirmed town. Lynching Paperscraps tonight would leave Gonzaw, Cephiro, and myself. I can defend myself in that situation because Cephiro thinks Gonzaw is also mafia. If we lynch me tonight, it's game over. If we lynch gonzaw, Cephiro and Paperscraps will blindly lynch me (I wouldn't be able to defend myself, they ,especially Ceph, wouldn't listen) on D5. Lynching Paperscraps is the only way we can win. Paper flipping red would make Cephiro open his mind at least a little, otherwise it's over. I know this is a risk, bkrow. But remember Probulous's trust in me being town and how close we were to lynching Paperscraps on D3.

Changing my vote again since this is the only way we can win.
##Unvote: gonzaw
##Vote: Paperscraps
meow
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 14 2012 19:03 GMT
#952
EBWOP: I know this is putting a lot of pressure on you bkrow. If you have any questions I'd be happy to answer them.
meow
CatsnHats
Profile Joined October 2011
United States199 Posts
January 14 2012 19:12 GMT
#953
EBWOP: I know Cephiro and Paperscraps are going to ream me for switching again. But forcing this 2v2 with bkrow deciding is better than prolonging the inevitable of my lynch and a town loss by lynching gonzaw first. It's better to either lynch Paperscraps or me today because:

1. Lynching Paperscraps makes D5 reads much easier for everyone.
2. Lynching me ends the game and doesn't drag out the inevitable. (Paper isn't going to change his mind about me because he's mafia, and Ceph won't unless it's a choice between me and Gonz in the end.)
meow
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 19:30 GMT
#954
I am going to humor you gonzaw. Remarks in bold.
On January 15 2012 03:40 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:gonzaw's response to my argument against him was kind of hilarious. He is digging his own grave at the moment.


Right:

"Wow, he made a good response, and found the flaws on my post and the reasons for it, what should I do?"
"I know, I'll say his post is hilarious and never address it, that will be okay".

I can't address the points you made that are outlandish and wrong. We need to get away from this circular argumentaion.

How do I address something like this?
Show nested quote +
gonzaw wrote:
HAHAHA


HAHAHAHA



OMG, this is so fucking terrible it's funny.

Way to use a strawman buddy.

lol


or this?
Show nested quote +
gonzaw wrote:
Either you blatantly sheep Prob's aweful case against me without any reason whatsoever, or you just skimmed through my filter and used strawman, misinterpretation and just blatantly wrong statements to paint me suspicious.


Show nested quote +
Some points to be made about this hilarious post.
1. First off gonzaw is only being defensive and not offensive. I understand his back is against the wall, but you can't win unless you score a few points.


What about me fucking saying you are scum is not offensive?

There is a big difference between arguing against some one with analysis on their filter and your obvious OMGUS retaliation.


I can basicly prove you are scum by your behaviour this day. It's so transparent you are scum it's not funny, and I'm sure BK will see that too.

Okay then lets see you do it!

Show nested quote +
2. His responses to my posts are poor. He laughs at some of the points I make. He avoids some points all together. He uses a bunch of curse words. None of this tells me anything.



Wow, the contradiction is so bad it hurts...

You say I avoid "some points altogether".


Guess what? YOU ARE AVOIDING ALL OF MY POINTS ALTOGETHER TOO.

You are saying my responses are "poor", but you don't even address them, good job!

I already answered this above. Repeating the same point over and over doesn't make it more right.


Show nested quote +
This is huge scum tell to me. Answers are in the details.


Just because I don't post about the "details" doesn't mean I don't take them into account.
Strawman!

Can I read your mind? No. Then there is no way for me know if you are paying attention to detail if don't post analysis.

Show nested quote +
You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!


Then can you tell me why the flying fuck they put the links to those guides here in the first place?

To help us?...

Show nested quote +
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia


No, you are making mistakes/contradictions, and cats is slipping under the pressure.

Okay what are they?

Also, we are at LYLO not MYLO for fucks sake, learn the difference.

Thanks, I know the difference know after looking on the mafia wiki thing. This is my first game, forgive me for not knowing all the acronyms like the back of my hand.

Show nested quote +
On January 15 2012 02:50 Paperscraps wrote:
@gonzaw: I haven't forgotten that Cats and Ceph could be the last mafia as well. I think this possibility is very small. I am not going to feel bad either if town loses because of this. You have only made the situation worse with all of your laughable posts as of recent.

I will give you same ultimatum I have given Cats. Prove to me with non-rage induced analysis that Cats and Ceph are cohorts. Go on the offensive for once!



lol, you want me to "prove" that the other players, who are not you are mafia.

You see, that's impossible, since you are mafia.

No, one can be certain of anything. The end here is coming down to what is most probable. Also it must be possible since I am town. Saying "I am town" doesn't hold much weight. The same thing goes with saying "you are mafia", without proper analysis to back it up.

Show nested quote +
That leaves me with convincing Cephiro and bkrow that I am town and CatsnHats is scum.


Wow, so previously you were convinced that both me and cats were scum, and now you are saying "Oh people, I know this is WIFOM, but what if Cephiro is scum? HMM?".

This is a viable concern, if you can't see the logic in that then I don't know what to say to you

What's with this sudden change of mind?

Oh I know, you are just sheeping my previous suggestion. You are trying to create chaos and confusion. There are like 6-7 hours remaining before the day ends, and now you want others to "prove" Cephiro is scum instead of doing it at the beginning of the day, or when that giant popcorn row started?

I posted my thoughts for my concerns in the posts previous. Having a change of mind and having a concern is different.

lol nice try, you know that will basicly end discussion until the day is over.



Show nested quote +
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?



Wtf?

You haven't responded to my posts yet.

You haven't even stated a single reason of why you think I'm scum, you are just sheeping on Prob, and you continue doing it .


Holy scum batman!


I want Paper lynched so his logical fallacies and contradictions are finally over, and it will be fairly easy to hang cats afterwards.

But I don't mind hanging cats on this day, at least to avoid NL.




Also, I'm eager to wait for Cephiro's "case" against me, I'm sure it will be as shitty as Prob's and Paper's.

Yeah, because Probu wasn't acting in the best interest of the town. His arguments must be bads. Purely subjective nonsense.

"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 19:34 GMT
#955
EBWOP: My last remark their is sarcasm. I should have made that clear.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
Paperscraps
Profile Joined March 2010
United States639 Posts
January 14 2012 20:14 GMT
#956
Some remarks before I leave for work here soon. I will be back at 5:30pm(pst) to see the aftermath. Looking forward to see how this all plays out.

@bkrow:
I am not worried that town is going to get scum today by lynching Cats. There is a ton of evidence against Cats and gonzaw. You seem like a logical person from your filter. Just use logic and think for yourself. Town will be victorious.

Note:
On January 14 2012 05:19 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps

If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.

I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you.


Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game.


CatsnHats first plea for Cephiro to "trust" in him, but no real proof/analysis to back it up.

On January 15 2012 04:02 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2012 17:09 bkrow wrote:
As explained earlier this is all happening at a pretty poor time; any day during this week would have been perfect but this weekend is going to be hectic.

Basically, my thoughts come down to this. We have the following list

Paperscraps
CatsnHats
Cephiro
Gonzaw

From that above list 2 are scum and 2 are town. There was a considerable case mounted against Paper prior to Blurry's fuck up and i believe he most likely would have been lynched if not for the worst role claim in history. I have not forgotten about that, nor do i believe that it would be the wrong choice to lynch Paper.

However, both Jitsu and Prob have suggested Gonz as a viable lynch target. His general posting attitude and demeanour is not very town like as it is very aggressive. The consolation is that this brings a lot of attention to his posts which is not ideal if he was mafia.

Paper launched an offensive against Gonz; so if he is scum, it is likely that Gonz is not scum
Cats launched an attack against Paper; so same logic as above

I read through Ceph's filter and i honestly think the kid is a townie based on his posts; so now this just puts me in a position of Paper and Cats being scum, which i don't think is likely based on the above.

I think lynching Paper is our best bet at the moment - the lynch on Blurry REALLY fucked us up; lynching Paper gives us a lot of useful information on Gonz and Cats.


Please stick with this bkrow. Lynching Paperscraps today is the only way I can see the town winning the game. It's safe to assume you'll be nightkilled because you are the only confirmed town. Lynching Paperscraps tonight would leave Gonzaw, Cephiro, and myself. I can defend myself in that situation because Cephiro thinks Gonzaw is also mafia. If we lynch me tonight, it's game over. If we lynch gonzaw, Cephiro and Paperscraps will blindly lynch me (I wouldn't be able to defend myself, they ,especially Ceph, wouldn't listen) on D5. Lynching Paperscraps is the only way we can win. Paper flipping red would make Cephiro open his mind at least a little, otherwise it's over. I know this is a risk, bkrow. But remember Probulous's trust in me being town and how close we were to lynching Paperscraps on D3.

Changing my vote again since this is the only way we can win.
##Unvote: gonzaw
##Vote: Paperscraps


CatsnHats second plea for you "trust" in him with no real proof/analysis for why.

You hold all the power bkrow! I won't be around to change my vote after this to gonzaw if you were leaning more that direction. Sorry you are in this position. Either I die or CatsnHats does. I believe both Cephiro and I have made compelling arguments against CatsnHats, so your choice shouldn't be too hard. Choose wisely.

@gonzaw:
I just wanted to say that the anger in your posts should be avoided in the future. What am I to think of some ones state of mind when they make a post full of cursing, CAPS, weird spacing and general hostility. Anger leads to irrational thinking. This nullifies anything you say.
"Because in the end, the only way we can measure the significance of our own lives is by valuing the lives of others.” - David Gale
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
January 14 2012 21:35 GMT
#957
On January 15 2012 04:30 Paperscraps wrote:I can't address the points you made that are outlandish and wrong. We need to get away from this circular argumentaion.


Right, they are "outlandish and wrong" but you don't have the time to even state why they are so
/sarcasm


How do I address something like this?



Easy, tell me why you used a fucking obvious strawman



There is a big difference between arguing against some one with analysis on their filter and your obvious OMGUS retaliation.


lol I thought you were scum as soon as Prob died, no OMGUS shit.


I already answered this above. Repeating the same point over and over doesn't make it more right.


What?...what is this response?

So you justify my response being poor by saying "repeating them over and over doesn't make them right".
You know what? It also doesn't mean they are wrong

Can't you see this is a blatant fallacy?


Can I read your mind? No. Then there is no way for me know if you are paying attention to detail if don't post analysis.


Well well, so "there is no way for me to know if you are paying attention to detail" = = "what you said was a scumtell"

Interesting.


To help us?...



Yeah, so the fact that I used the guide makes it "the nail in my coffin", right?


No, one can be certain of anything. The end here is coming down to what is most probable. Also it must be possible since I am town. Saying "I am town" doesn't hold much weight. The same thing goes with saying "you are mafia", without proper analysis to back it up.


lol, so you base your scumreads on "what is most probable"? lol

Your blatant and intentional use of logical fallacies to make me lynched is enough evidence.

Oh of course, not taking into account your "constant change of mind" regarding Blurry, and your sheeping on Jitsu and Prob.


This is a viable concern, if you can't see the logic in that then I don't know what to say to you


Yes, a "viable concern" you stated 7 hours before the day was over.



I posted my thoughts for my concerns in the posts previous. Having a change of mind and having a concern is different.


Right, but at first you were "certain" we were scum, and then you have your "concern" right before the day ends, and you tell everybody to make an analysis on why Cephiro could be scum, effectively wasting everybody's time and letting time pass till the day ends.

Yeah, because Probu wasn't acting in the best interest of the town. His arguments must be bads. Purely subjective nonsense.


Do I have to repeat myself on why Prob was fucking wrong?

Check the response to cats, I'm sure you missed it trying to find the exact posts that paint me suspicious.




Okay then lets see you do it!


Shouldn't be hard.

But of course, you will say it is wrong because I would be "repeating the same points over and over" right? And then you would ignore it, I'm sure you will.


@Gonzaw: (Answers to your post in bold.)
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2012 08:48 gonzaw wrote:
Wtf people? It's less than 1 hour and a half before the night ends and nobody's posting shit?
We are at LYLO tomorrow for fucks sake!!




Okay Paperscraps, I found your "read" on Blurry odd as hell.

Here are all the times you mention Blurry:


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Blurry Scum

1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.

Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.

My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.


Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you).

So to make it easy

Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not?


Yes I would, and will.

#Vote: Liquid'Sheth

As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.



Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be.


Okay, so you start right off thinking Blurry is scum. However you justify it by your "leaning more towards the former" on a WIFOM situation, and the "something just doesn't feel right about him" wishy washiness.

I agree that this was all speculation, I will leave out wishy washy remarks in the future.


+ Show Spoiler +
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy.


Okay, that is a good reason though, which is what I stated earlier.

+ Show Spoiler +
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.




+ Show Spoiler +
@Prob: Yeah I can agree with all of this. Right now Cats>Blurry, due to the death of Jitsu and re-reading the filters of Jitsu, Cats and Sheth.


Now suddenly you focus on Cats instead of Blurry just because of Jitsu's death and filter.
What made you think Blurry was less scum than Cats? Why didn't you pursue Blurry more?

I was thinking that Cats was much more probable than Blurry first off.
After reading through Blurry's filter, he just seemed more inexperienced and more town.
Probulous also thinking Blurry being town weighed a lot with me, because probulous had good reads and analysis thus far.


+ Show Spoiler +
I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment.


"I still am not quite sure about Blurry"?
Didn't you say he was scum before? You even put Blurry in the "Cats>Blurry" scum-o-meter.
You also say he hasn't done anything to justify himself as of yet, and instead of convincing you he's scum, it convinces you that you are not sure? That doesn't make any sense.

I should have made it clear that the general census of the town leaning towards Blurry being innocent was swaying what I was thinking about him. I kept linking Blurry with Sheth. Blurry somewhat called Sheth out early on, but never followed up later. This was probably the main reason that I thought Blurry was scum. Prob and the rest of town convinced me otherwise. Even Cats started to convince me that Blurry was town.

+ Show Spoiler +
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.

All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.


Now instead of "not being sure about Blurry" you still think he's scummy. But you don't outright say it.
You say "this also further makes Blurry look bad" and "maybe he is your scumbuddy! I am guessing that latter"
You are implying that if Cats is scum, then Blurry may be too. You are not saying Blurry is scum, you are just casting suspicion on him by your tunneling of Cats

Yeah, now I was linking Blurry with Cats. Cats was pushing for Blurry to be lynched then switched to me, which made me think that it was some sort of trick. I was wrong on this. Noob mistake on my part.

+ Show Spoiler +
Blurry slightly scummy(this depending on the current lynch of Cats). Cats strong scum read. That leaves me as well, but I don't really know how the majority read me yet.

Blurry voting up Cats could be his redemption though.


So Blurry voting up Cats is his redemption?
What?

I was thinking that Cats is mafia, so if Blurry voted up Cats then that would mean that Blurry would indeed be town.

+ Show Spoiler +
As for your analysis of Blurry:

I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha.

3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis.



"He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha."

What?

So you just forget about Blurry being scum because of that?

Not just because of that, but also in general the town was swaying more towards Blurry being town. Blurry made a decent case against Cats. I didn't forget about Blurry being scum, but rather Blurry was lower on my list. I was thinking Cats would be a safer bet.

+ Show Spoiler +
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.


And here you never mention Blurry either, even though you had him as "scum" for a long time.
You basicly forget about him, even though he did almost nothing, and there was a case and pressure against him.

And what was that constant change of opinion on Blurry?

First you thought he was scum. Then you weren't sure. Then you thought he was Cat's scumbuddy, but then stopped thinking he was scum. And you gave almost no reason for these change of opinions.



Also, if you thought Blurry was scum, why did you ignore my case against him?
This I find odd as hell. It looks like you wanted to make Blurry suspicious but didn't want to actually make a case or anything against him on your own, nor you wanted to sheep other people's cases either.
If you thought he was scum, then surely you must have paid attention to my case, but you never mentioned it in the slightest

The constant change of opinions is due to getting caught up with the game, re-reading peoples filters and the general feeling of the town. Thinking he was Cats' scum buddy, was just hypothetical. I didn't ignore your case against Blurry. I just didn't find it very strong. I think the fact that Sheth and Blurry didn't talk much was due to Blurry being inexperienced plain and simple.

I don't know why I have to mention other peoples arguments against people, when I make my own. That is unreasonable.



Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2012 13:54 Paperscraps wrote:
Just got back from school. Wow oh wow at what happened. Dang I wish Blurry didn't make a huge blunder like that. Town is in bad shape.

Seems like Cats and Prob or Gonz are mafia. Will be interesting to see who they target tonight.

If Prob dies, then it is Cats and Gonz

If Gonz dies, then it is Cats and Prob

If I die, which I won't think will happen due to people being suspicious of me, then I don't know who the last mafia is.



What is this?

You just assume both Cephiro and BK are town? And you don't give any reasons for it?

It is not so much that I am assuming people are town, but rather that I thought Cats and you were more probable to be scum than others at the time in such a situation.


You were suspicious of Blurry thanks to WIFOM
Then you say that you started to think he was town because you were sheeping Prob, and because "town thought that way"
However, you still thought of Blurry as scum
Then, because Blurry voted Cats, you instantly thought he was town, because of WIFOM.

Really? Blatant sheeping, justification of your "reads" based on WIFOM, inconsistencies in your "read" of Blurry, etc, etc...



Pretty harsh thing to say. Making a case for someone being town is just as effective as making a case for someone being scum. Scum are the people that don't want others to know who town are.


You are making me suspicious by defending Cookies actions. This is an obvious attempt to make me suspicious without even trying, you just say "Cookie was a townie, therefore he was right, therefore your reason for being suspicious of him was wrong, therefore you are mafia"

Gonzaw then proceeds to vote up CM. He doesn't provide any real evidence against CM.


You "forget" that I was continuously pressuring CM and pointing out very bad and scummy play from him.

Gonzaws sticks with his vendetta against CM(AKCT), with no real evidence.


You "forget" about my responses to AKCT too


Obviously you are twisting my interactions with CM/AKCT to make it look like I just "voted him for no reason", or maybe even "sheeped along" or some shit



Gonzaw is trying to cast suspicion on to Blurry. He knows that the mafia isn't going to use their role blocker, so that the town is at a disadvantage. This very reasoning lead us to the mis-lynch of Blurry. Oh the irony


You are purposefully misinterpreting "pressuring" as "casting suspicion".
You also make a nice totally irrelevant tale about how if I was mafia I would have not used the RB or some shit.
Then you make an irelevant remark about how because mafia didn't use the roleblocker, then Blurry was lynched.

Hey, PROB got Blurry lynched, not me, and certanly not mafia. You know this but purposefully make me look suspicious by saying "oh you are mafia, and you didn't RB so you could cast suspicion on Blurry and lynch him afterwards, because you suddenly knew Blurry was medic all the game, and that Prob was DT so you could get Prob to lynch Blurry" or some shit.


This is the same thing Sheth did. He gave a pep talk to Cats to not throw the game.


Here you blatantly lie to make me suspicious.


Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reasons for voting up CM(AKCT) are bad.

Yet, Gonzaw claims that Blurry's reason were part of the reasons why he voted up CM(AKCT).
Sounds like a contradiction to me.


Of course, let's not forget the obvious strawman that you use to make me suspicious, which you don't even try to justify

Then, Gonzaw sheeps/bandwagons(whatever you want to call it) with Prob in the lynching of Sheth. He doesn't provide any analysis of Sheth and says he had a null reason of him up until this point. Of course we know now that Prob knew for a fact that Sheth was mafia, but at the time no one knew this. Then he just disappears and leaves his scum buddy to die, so he doesn't have to provide any reasoning to his vote


Here you are using my inactivity to paint me suspicious. When you well know that I couldn't have done anything regarding it.

Gonzaw votes up Blurry for using his gut and WIFOM. Nothing substantial. Contradiction again.


Again, trying to make me suspicious by blatantly ignoring my post and picking the parts of it that you want

This post is full of garbage. As other players have mentioned Blurry shouldn't have to be the only one to argue that he is town, others can argue it for him to avoid a mis-lynch. Mafia gains a clear advantage when no-body stands up for each other. Gonzaw is very aggressive and gives us some WIFOM against Blurry. Gonzaw is hypocritical here again, using WIFOM against Blurry, but when WIFOM is used against himself it can't be right.


Here, let me repeat what I said previously (and you ignored)


Written by gonzaw, whatever:

This is what you are doing:
-Gonzaw thought Blurry was scum because of X
-Blurry was X because he was town
-Therefore, gonzaw knew that Blurry was X because he was town, and therefore is scum


lol try harder.
You are sinking yourself deeper and deeper.

You are implying that when we scumhunt in the future, we don't take into account the "I'm a newb" responses, you are implying that we shouldn't let players defend themselves, and you are implying that we shouldn't pressure other players by the obvious statements they say.


There is no reason to fake claim here. Probulous breadcrumbed in the beginning of the thread, if that isn't proof enough. Prob was spot on against Sheth. Gonzaw is pretty much the only person that against Prob right now. Gonz then posts this weird post above about WIFOM non-sense, something he is against.


Again, you are making me suspicious because I doubted a blue claim

Nail in the coffin.


Sheeping your scumbuddy to paint me suspicious, because I wasn't sure of Probs claim.

You can't base your entire case on some guide! People are unpredictable!


Strawman, I never said I would base an "entire case" on some guide

To help us?...


Again, you are contradicting yourself. You say that me using the guide to "help me" figure out whether Prob's claim is true or not, is the "nail in my coffin".

You are blatantly trying to use anything in your power to paint me suspicious. You know I'm town and so need to fabricate things to make me suspicious.

So right now that leaves Cephiro and Cats both on the same playing field in my eyes. We all need to be finding holes in each others posts. I have argued against Cats, so I am going to focus some attention on Cephiro to see what I can find out.


Right, you are trying to paint Cephiro suspicious so maybe you don't need to start a heavy bus right away.

However, you can't find anything against him, even if you continue to paint him suspicious, so you finalize your bus:

Thus, CatsnHats and Gonzaw are mafia scum.

BOOM! Goes the dynamite!


However, later you just state that the scum teams are based on "probability".

Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.


@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.

I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.

Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?

In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.


WIFOM: The only reason I had any suspicion of the possibility that gonzaw and you might be the last two mafia was because you were delayed in making a case solely against gonzaw and pushing Cats. I was thinking you were going to make a case against gonzaw first, because he seems more scummy to me than Cats, but not by much. If by some miracle Cats was innocent, however unlikely, then switching gears to get Cats lynched instead gonzaw would cause the town to lose.

I think this is very unlikely.


I am over thinking things. I agree with you. It is clear that Cats and gonzaw are the last two mafia.


Really what the fuck is this wishy washy thing?

First you say that me and Ceph are a "possibility".
Before you were "sure" cats and me were scum, but now you start talking about "possibilities"? What?
Then you immediately say that you think Ceph is town, and immediately say "oh you have a chance of being mafia, we can't be sure wishy washy wishy washy".
Then you use WIFOM to be more wishy washy, and then immediately say that me and Cats are the two last mafia.

For fucks sake this is so wishy washy it's not funny.

Also, you just said "I will check Ceph" or some shit before.
You didn't ask me to make a "case" against Ceph, and you didn't ask your scumbuddy to make one either by that point.

You did it almost when the day was over
Because you knew that would give you time, it would make me contribute less trying to come up with a "case" against Ceph which you know won't happen since he's town.
It will excuse your scumbuddy from posting or doing shit by "doing the same thing"
Then, even if one of us would "find" anything, all the remainder of the day would be used to discuss that, which is pointless since Ceph is town, and you know it.

You know this will clog up the thread, and waste our time.


And of course, your refusal to respond to my points, you justifying it by implying "you repeated your points over and over, therefore they are wrong" and "that post was hilarious, therefore I won't respond to it".

It's clear as day you are scum




@gonzaw:
I just wanted to say that the anger in your posts should be avoided in the future. What am I to think of some ones state of mind when they make a post full of cursing, CAPS, weird spacing and general hostility. Anger leads to irrational thinking. This nullifies anything you say.


I know my anger towards fallacies, confirmation bias and stuff is not called for.

But I can't do much about it. However, I doubt that makes me "think irrationally", since for me to be angry I have to notice the fallacies in the first place.

Also, I never do Ad Hominem attacks, I never insulted you nor anybody.
If you can't handle a few "for fuck's sake" then it's not my fault.

...ehmm, with the exception of Blurry when he was lynched, I would want to apologize to him because of that.


Also BK, I'm waiting for your analysis and who you think we should lynch.

As how things are going, I'm happy since we are bound to get scum.
However, I would prefer to lynch Paper first. His logical fallacies, misinterpretation and nitpicking are indeed dangerous and can make you or Ceph believe he is town.
Once Paper flips scum, Ceph will know I'm town and we can be safe to lynch Cats, so I beg of you to think this through
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 14 2012 22:23 GMT
#958
Case #2

Gonzaw


On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:
So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL?

You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why?

If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed.
If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up.
If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR


First you are trying to paint me as "experienced", when it's my first time playing. A few others called me out for my bad starting posts, but for some reason you are trying to make me look dangerous, but not calling out on that mistake?

In the latter part, I think it's because you know that there is a mafia roleblocker (for all I know you could be the mafia rb, it's you or Cats after all). You're trying to set yourself up for fake-claiming in case it's needed. Your only risk would be the counter-claim, but especially since your strong start you must've believed that you can convince everyone that you would be the real power role.

On January 04 2012 12:35 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:
Interesting.

If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames".
If you are scum I really hope you aren't.


A nothing-saying wishy-washy filler, again trying to raise suspicions at me.

On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:

Tuneg,

It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.

SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.

#VOTE TUNEG


Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me.


Is it scummy enough for you to vote him?

Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp.


Setting yourself up to start pressuring Gretorp more once he shows up, also asking Cats to join the bandwagon if you decide to start one. Unfortunately that didn't quite work out since he was so inactive, you had to find another target.

On January 05 2012 04:43 gonzaw wrote:
Also, what do you think about Gretorp?

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote:
On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:

Tuneg,

It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia.

SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY.

#VOTE TUNEG


Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me.


I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious .

@Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts?



Again, you said you are suspicious of him and you think he's scummy.
But you didn't vote for him yet. Is there a reason for it? Are you just "waiting" to see what he does or something?


Keeping up Gretorp's name just incase anyone is about to forget, then soft-pressuring Cats about some more pre-planned "newbie" mistakes.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 04:54 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote:
I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it.

I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia.

Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea.



Nobody mentioned RL yet, why did you?



Anyways, just so we get the RNG lynch our of the way, this is what I think of it (feel free to ignore it if you want though, it doesn't really add anything new to the discussion):


I think the point of random lynch is, first, to have EVERYBODY ABSOLUTELY AGREE to lynch whoever is chosen.
Then, we somehow randomly choose someone (we can make everybody RNG someone, and the one that comes up the most is chosen). Although scum will surely choose themselves, and will surely not choose a fellow scum member for the lynch, so this gives us info too.
Then, we decide to lynch the guy.
If nobody objects and completely agrees, then we can be sure that player is town (scum would flip their shit if their team member is RLed on Day 1).
If somebody objects, then maybe he's scum (and his scumbuddies are objecting), or it's just a townie changing his mind.

In any case, you don't lynch anybody, you use it as a ruse to get information and get confirmed townies and stuff.
The gist of it is not mentioning this to anyone though.

Anyways, I don't know if this can work or not, so maybe in Post-Game (or now if you want) we can discuss it more thoroughly.


Filler, but admitting it to excuse yourself.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 05:37 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
RNG is a bad idea. This is a game about limited information. No real information is gleaned from RNG a lynch. What happens if you nail a mafia member? Nice! What happens if you nail a townie. You just learn that that individual player was green.

Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.

I'd still like to hear from CookieMaker and AnxiousHippo. For one who posted with a lot early activity, and the other who preached it, they surely have dropped off the radar.


Yes, that's the point.

You ACT like if you were going to make a lynch based on RNG, but in fact you don't.
It's used to get info.

If the guy chosen by the RNG is scum, I'm sure scum members will freak out.
If the guy is townie, I'm sure nobody will freak out (except that guy obviously).

After the guy to lynch is decided, and everybody voices their opinions, you just say "lol jk I wont' random lynch him" and just play normally.


Of course I think this may be best suited for a Mayor for instance, since I think those choose the lynch on Day 1, or some similar role (it would be kind of impossible to pull this off in a normal setup).


More of the same filler.

On January 05 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote:
@gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth.


Votes can also be used for pressure, and to see the reactions of other players (and the one you voted obviously).
Specially on Day 1.

Although if you are certain the guy is scum, then vote for him with all your courage and try to convince other people of so.

Although okay then, that's fine.I expect you to make some "reads" on Gretorp/Xeris/etc soon though.


More back-and-forth chit-chat w/ scumbuddy Cats, so that no-one can back to you about ignoring him. Here you are "learning him how to play", with the previously planned "newbie mistake". Also, what are these "reads" you are talking about?

On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote:
My turn.

This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had.

For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger.

Cephiro:

-This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise:
+ Show Spoiler +


Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him.

Pro-town evidence:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.


Also...
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!


What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?


In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.

Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.

Player List:
1.CookieMaker

For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.

2.Liquid`Sheth

Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.

3.AnxiousHippo

Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.

5.Tunkeg

Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.

6.Jitsu

Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.

7.Xeris

All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.

8.Gretorp

Same as above, neutral.

9.Gonzaw

Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.

10.Blurry

Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.

11.Probulous

Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.

12.CatsnHats

Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!

I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.



More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this.

Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player).

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.


I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.



You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.

Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.


I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.

About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?

Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.

Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.


I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.

My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.

@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.



This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through.

[bAnti-town evidence:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing.

Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia.

I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here :

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with.
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point.
Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other.
If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.)
That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early.
On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die.
(Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.)

Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot....

Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them.

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.


Also...
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood!


What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway?


It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird.

However this morning you posted

+ Show Spoiler +

On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.

Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.

Player List:
1.CookieMaker

For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.

2.Liquid`Sheth

Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.

3.AnxiousHippo

Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.

5.Tunkeg

Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.

6.Jitsu

Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.

7.Xeris

All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.

8.Gretorp

Same as above, neutral.

9.Gonzaw

Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.

10.Blurry

Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.

11.Probulous

Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.

12.CatsnHats

Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!

I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up.



Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you.

@Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!?



Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example:

Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:

Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.


On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion.

I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me.



Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D

-Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind.

On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge.


Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town



So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town.

Is this game about finding townies? No.
I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies.
Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie.

Your priority is finding scum.
Now, apparently you forgot about that part.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:
On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote:
With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow.

Jab and dodge eh? I like your style.

I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.

Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up.

And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin....

Thought of some cute food for thought:

Surely rotten eggs
will indeed be the those whom first
crack in the steamer


This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else.

He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better.

Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem.


cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother
sheth tell us what posts are bothering you
Also, where did blurry go?





@AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku
Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action.



What?
If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense.

Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive.
Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads.
I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will.

Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out.

I think you are scum bro.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
There are reasons for this. And there hasn't been a major reason to post a lot yet. I think I've spoken a fair amount in the posts I have written. Quality of quantity.


I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now.



You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town.

Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly.


I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other.

About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think?

Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1.

Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion.
Show nested quote +
On January 04 2012 05:21 Jitsu wrote:
Glean information from posts, sort it, filter it, analyze it. Posting and lynching based on evidence is a better theory than randomly trying to pull numbers out of a hat and hopefully snag mafia. I hope by Day 2, people will have enough reads and analysis where a random lynch wouldn't even have to be mentioned.


I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion.
If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp.

My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours.

@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back.



Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though.



Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears?
Wtf?
*sigh* this won't get us anywhere.



Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them.
The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game.

*sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to.
I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things).

##unvote: Xeris
##vote: CookieMaker


You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play.
You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such.
Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that.
If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case.


Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before.
Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such.

I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now.
[/b]

He picks on Cookie here and votes for him due to his newbie play and mistakes. Yet he lets me off the hook for some of the same things. Taking one out, setting the other up for brainwash, trying to convince me into agree whatever your opinion is later.

Also, the same mistake Cats did later. Soft pressuring Probu, not really blaming him for anything, but throwing around the idea that he could be scum. Just trying to cause suspicions here.

On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP2:

Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_>

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote:
Part 2: (taking a long time to write this)
I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates

7: Xeris
Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.

8: Gretorp
Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.

9: Gonzaw
Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.

10: Me
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.

11: Probulous
Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.

12: CatsNHats
Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.

Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far.



Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence?


Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of?

If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not?

Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.


Isn't this kind of obvious?
Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?


Fluff talk about using a similar format.

Then you bring up Gretorp again.

And.... CONTRADICTION! Here you are saying if a townie is roleblocked they should claim "of course". But earlier you go on about how a possible fake-claim could mess it up, making the town think there is a roleblocker when there isn't. You're being ambigious here, so that you can back up on yourself whatever someone thinks.

On January 05 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:
What's a smurf?
2 different accounts or something?

No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book.

Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise.

Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something).
-If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something
-If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference.

For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier.

Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here.
Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later.



Blablabla WIFOM blablabla LYLO blablabla WIFOM blablabla RB blablablabla WIFOM. What's the point?

On January 05 2012 13:36 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, what is this?

If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players.

Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier?

If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally?
Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this.

You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you.
That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town.


Soft-pressuring Probu again. Picking up on his mistakes, trying to punish him for that.

On January 05 2012 14:57 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 14:43 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers.

Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D!



Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options.

Set Up:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town

They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now.

I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning.

Can we got a vote count please?


If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic).
He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here.

I thought that was pretty apparent.


Backing up scumbuddy Sheth.

Then he has a longer post where he blames Xeris, Cookie, and Blurry. ( 3 townies )

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2012 03:51 gonzaw wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote:
I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).

I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.

Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully


Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.

Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl


The problem is not that you are inactive, the problem is the content of the little posts you have.

Things like this for intance:



+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 04:22 Xeris wrote:
I can guarantee you guys that I am not mafia -- I'm a townie.

Anyone who has played mafia with me knows how terrible I am at being a mafia. I am a really good townie though, so you should definitely keep me in the game!

I don't vote in this thread right?? When are the votes due (i.e. what actual time)?


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote:
I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish).

I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad.

Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully


Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.

Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl


Those seem like a contradiction to me, you can't say you are a "really good townie", and then undermine your own play, saying you'll just sheep along, and that you don't have any "clues about online mafia", etc.


Actually, it is a contradiction assuming you are town. If you are scum, then it would be perfectly fine, even so since you said you were a horrible scum player, am I right?

What's your response?





+ Show Spoiler +
Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly.


Who exactly are you talking about here?

+ Show Spoiler +
Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl


Also, stop doing this.

Even if you are a "newbie", you shouldn't "undermine" your own play.
It will make other people underestimate you too, and you will have a more difficult time convincing them, etc.

...of course, if you are mafia this is actually pretty good for you, so don't do it (it's just like Gretorp's "joke", it's dumb if he's town, but works for him if he's mafia).


If you have the time, I'd like you to respond to my questions to you, and of course give us your thoughts on the current events.



+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote:
Part 2: (taking a long time to write this)
I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates

7: Xeris
Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum.

8: Gretorp
Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum.

9: Gonzaw
Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town.

10: Me
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.

11: Probulous
Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him.

12: CatsNHats
Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral.

Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far.



Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence?


Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of?

If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not?

Also:

+ Show Spoiler +
I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us.


Isn't this kind of obvious?
Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so?


I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this.

Solid Candidates: Gretorp, Cookiemaker
I would probably rather lynch Gretorp because he hasn't said anything

To your last point: This is a newbie game, maybe its not obvious. I just want to make sure that people know to claim a RB.




Emulating other players, just by formating your post in a similar way to make things more tidy and stuff is fine.

...but don't emulate players in other ways. Try to be yourself here. Also this could be the perfect excuse for sheeping or jumping on bandwagons and such "I was just emulating player X!". So try to be as "authentic" here as possible.




+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:
Okay, my last post for the day:

Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.

One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.



To be honest, CM's vote was formatted wrongly.
Whether it was intentional or not, I don't know, but the point is that it won't count for the vote tally.
There's the small chance both of them are scum, and he formatted wrong on purpose, so don't go assuming otherwise (of course he could have just bussed normally and forgot to format it correctly).


Also, damn, this whole replacement thing is kind of a let down. I wanted Cookie to come and explain himself, *sigh* I suppose we can't do that anymore...


I'll check Tea's posts in a moment.
I also suggest all of you view Tea's posts in the same light you viewed Cookie's posts. If you thought Cookie was scum, then you think Tea is scum; if you thought he was town, you think Tea is town, that's irrefutable.


On January 06 2012 06:24 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:RE: Gonzaw -

It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said.

...wut?

You are admiting you scumsliped? Wtf?
Should I just assume that was a question and you fucked up the grammar or something?

Also, I was under the impression you were assuming there is a blue role, which is stupid at this point (even though there's 75% chance of there being at least 1 blue role, but again leave that to night 1 talk).
And like I said, if scum have 3 goons, they know for sure that there is a blue role, and therefore can scumslip.

Assuming there is a blue role, and this scumslip are almost impossible to distinguish, so if you are town just stop doing it (you and everybody else, specially the blue roles if there are any).


Time to pressure the next townie a bit, Jitsu is under the gun this time.

On January 06 2012 06:30 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 06:26 Jitsu wrote:
There was supposed to be a question mark at the end of the sentence.

And you are telling me to stop talking about blue roles when i've said twice now that it's pointless to talk about them.


I'm telling you to stop assuming there are blue roles.

I was telling Tea to stop talking about blue roles (and Sheth, and those other guys that did so before, and the ones that answered Tea's questions).


"I don't want the others to know if there are blues since they could use that information to check us or protect our night-kills."


On January 06 2012 10:06 gonzaw wrote:
Hmm..

Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green.
Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc.


Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives:

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote.


You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive?

What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so?
What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?.


"Blablabla, our kill went through, I'll post some filler." Re-read his reads knowing he is town and everyone's reasons for voting bla... isn't that obvious?

You keep bringing Gretorp up again. You sure want this lurker townie lynched? And then pushing the other lurker too. Going for free town-lynches much?

On January 06 2012 10:24 gonzaw wrote:
I'm not actually saying they are mafia.
They are just VERY scummy, inconsistent, and we NEED TO PRESSURE THEM AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

Ever since the whole Cephiro vs Cookie thing came up, we basicly ignored them. We can't do that anymore.
We have to either threaten them with a lynch, or with a DT check (if there is one) or something, they can't go like that anymore.

Also, like I said the point is not lynching them just because (that's stupid), the point is getting them to talk.

Also, I'm very suspicious of Xeris at the moment. Even though he had 4 posts in which you say makes him "hard to judge", here's what he did:
-He contradicted himself.
-He talked about mechanics when it wasn't necessary nor was the current discussion
-He ignored people's votes and pressure on him.
-He played the "I'm a good town! You better not lynch me because I'm good!" and the "Maybe I'm bad at online mafia, don't take my reads into account" card (related to point #1)

I can't just ignore him, I can't.


"I'm not saying the lurkers are mafia so I can't be called out for that, BUT OH THEY ARE SO SCUMMY AND WE NEED TO GET RID OF THEM, THEY ARE DANGEROUS"

Yeah. >.> Keep pushing for the lurkers.

On January 06 2012 10:25 gonzaw wrote:
EBWOP:
For instance, I can't believe EVERYBODY ignored this:
Show nested quote +
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it



Keeps bringing up a quote that doesn't really mean pretty much anything. BUT IT'S A CLEAR SCUM-TELL ABOUT A LURKER!!!!

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 10:40 Probulous wrote:
I realised that I didn't actually answer your question

So here we go
What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so?


It is bad play. No town should promise something and then not deliver. However he did point out the waffle nature of Cephiro's posting and his unwillingness to actually say someone is scum.

On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-)


Hence until further posting arises he is null to me.


Fair enough.


Although remember that just because someone has similar views/reads to you it doesn't make him less mafia or more town.

Show nested quote +
Your analysis is pretty good. I always had him as more scummy than Gretorp. His avoidance of responsiblity and blatant trashing of any case presented is not helping. Neither is his lack of posting. He does look scummy but I still want to hear from him before making up my mind.


Well, don't we all?



Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever):

1-For previous reasons of certain players
2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch.

Players in the 1st category would include:
Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry
Players in the 2nd category would include:
CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo

*sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch.
However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before.

Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good.

About Blurry though:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:1: Cookiemaker
AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me.


Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him.


Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 15:58 Blurry wrote:
On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:

<snip>

Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'.


I may be a little late on this, but this is a clear tell for me that he is scum. The "I'm not contributing because you already took my points" is simply trying to absolve yourself from having to provide any analysis.

##Vote: CookieMaker



Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first)..


At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said.


Show nested quote +
On January 06 2012 00:53 Blurry wrote:Staying on CM/Tea as I am still unsure about Cephiro.

Other than that, I'm sorry I couldn't contribute more this first day as I am still new to this and am not sure what to look for in terms of reading players but by going over players posts I am getting a good idea and I'm sure my analysis quality will steadily improve over the course of the game.


Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc.

DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING


Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself?

I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris).

Show nested quote +
One thing that strikes me looking back at all this is CM voting for CatsinHats. If CM/Tea is indeed scum then I think this provides evidence towards cats not being scum as I dont think CM would have been that meta especially with the holes in his play he has already shown. This can't be assumed however so I would still be suspicious.


I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things.

This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless).


You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude:

Show nested quote +
On January 05 2012 15:32 Blurry wrote:I posted in the same format as Cephiro because I'm new to this and I'm trying to pick up on how this game is played. Thus you will see me emulate some things that other players will do or how they format their analysis. This won't be the first time you will see this.


In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either.



I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little.
But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp.





Some filler analysis which he even admit's is quite nonsense, then pressuring Blurry. (Attack moar townies, you haven't pressured a single scum yet.)
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
January 14 2012 22:25 GMT
#959
EBWOP: More coming up.
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
January 14 2012 22:56 GMT
#960
Vote Count!


Paperscraps(2): Gonzaw, CatsnHats

CatsnHats(2): Cephiro, Paperscraps

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch, the day ends in about 2 hours.
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