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I skimmed his defense just don't want to post on it till I've read it over slowly and actually thought about it deeply. Slight miss speak on last post.
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On January 07 2012 09:22 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 09:09 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I haven't read his defense yet at all, I plan on making a big post on him after the night phase is over talking about the defense and such. Hopefully you don't mind waiting until morning. You seem pretty certain on surviving the night. You know something we don't?
Night ends soon and I don't have time now. Ends in 22 minutes. I'm still working atm and when I'm done I'm going to go to sleep. I want it to be perfect and make sense completely. I'm upset we didn't lynch him last day and I think its because of sloppy posts not explaining all there is on him atm. Will also be interesting to see who died. If its me then sorry, and you already know my read on him is scum, and me dieing should give you clues too. So, as much as I'd like to give my full read on him before the end of night I'm not going to have time. You posted your entire read on me, I bet that took a while. I just don't have time to do that atm and want to do it right.
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On January 07 2012 09:36 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 09:05 Probulous wrote:
Jitsu, Tunk, enough with the back and forth. It should be pretty clear you are both town to anyone paying attention. Don't waste your time arguing over a single badly worded post.
You both voted for AKCT before anyone else, that should be enough to ensure that you both did not jump on the wagon. You started it. Save your analysis for people who are possibly scum. This is just spamming the thread and making it difficult to spot other people's posts. I'm not back and forth'ing with Tunk. XD RE: Sheth - What kind of question is that? I post an analysis, than I vote for him, and than you ask me if I think he should be lynched? Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 10:02 CatsnHats wrote:@Ceph Jumping on the CatsnHats bandwagon I see. It seems like you trying to get people to spare you on D2 by shifting attention to me. You quoted me as saying "Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with." as evidence that I flip-flopped when I later included him on my scum reads. But you didn't quote the whole post. I said: RE: CookieMaker
Even with recent read on Ceph, which I agree with. I cannot let you off the hook yet for shady opening play. The poem, Odin/Thor references, fluff posts, "jabbing and dodging" who you accused of jabbing and dodging, etc. All of this leans towards scum I think. I've never flipped on CM, you just didn't include this to make your case. It seems alot of people have a habit of doing that. And no, you didn't fall off of my list, if you actually read Jitsu's post you aren't mentioned on it, so I didn't include you. Don't worry you're still on it. You're actually at the top of it for D2. That's not OMGUS, it's just that you are top two with CM/Tea and once he's gone you're logically next on the list. My flip from Gretorp to you was to kill the greater of two evils a the moment, since Gretorp's inactivity had left him as a harder read when compared to you. And then I switched my vote from you to Tea because it seemed we were going to be deadlocked, and killing #2 on my list and letting #1 go is much better than letting both #1 and #2 go. Does that look like a newbie post to you? If I was being accused of Mafia, I would prove my innocence by finding scum. Not by trying the town to lynch myself. In other words, having the town waste another day to lynch me if I was town is anti-town in and of itself. I think he's banking on the fact that he's trying to pull at our oh-so-tender heartstrings. Thoughts?
Didn't notice you voted on him. Didn't realize you could vote on someone during night phase...
And yes that post was really well done. Thats ONE post of his. (What is OMGUS?) Do the rest look like veteran posts to you? Like his gambit of trying to get himself lynched is stupid. When ProfBA did it, it was stupid too. ProfBA was a veteran though, he had a lot of good posts, he even got elected as something. In what crazy world would we elect this Catsnhats? I don't see him coming up with the same thing as ProfBA... And ProfBA isn't a coach for this. However I don't think it means hes not mafia, I just don't think hes our best read. Give him the rest of this day and I might agree that hes surely mafia, but can you at least agree to give him that time? IdrA is actually a lot nicer then people give him credit for. :[
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@Jitsu that was my thoughts exactly on those two as well. However you need to go over and read it or re-read it, as do I. Thats the sort of thing that could hide scum too. Just making a filter too long and too full of confusing randomness that we don't want to look at it.
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On January 07 2012 23:27 Probulous wrote:![[image loading]](http://img.gomtv.net/imgdata/31266.jpg) Before I lynch you i would like to apologise if you don’t like me using the photo. I will remove it if you give yourself up easily.The Baby-Faced KillerFirst things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong. Ok, I'm back and have time to talk. Why are you discrediting yourself here? We know you were wrong, we were wrong too. Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely  Your likely to not get fooled twice? You've been using good logic and sounding townie, but why do you say this? Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go. My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject. I picked on Cats to get a read on him. I let off him for a little while true. However I still think its obvious Cats is playing this like a newb. Not nessecarily a mafia or a town newb, but I don't get why waiting a little bit on him and going on my more solid read of Cephiro was bad. Its what you did too. This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position. You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts. Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation ( Linky for context). Here is the meat of it Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Fluff Its fluff, but I'm trying to encourage Gretorp to post some. Pretty sure you've asked him to post more as well? Show nested quote +Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post. Joke? You did the SAME THING YOU JUST ACCUSED ME OFF! You started putting pressure on Cephiro and just kept it on him. Thats exactly what my post there was trying to get us to do. Besides my post is exactly what your doing now on me as well. Forcing EVERYONE in this thread to comment on me. Your logic here is just fluff, I wasn't saying to "just pick one person to lynch", but to pick one person to pressure. Your either intentionally reading this wrong or just trying to add something to your case that has no point being here. This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep. Thanks for pointing out the same reason we don't do RNG. I wasn't implying we just pick on one person the whole day. Just that we go after one person with some REAL pressure. We started day 1 putting too little pressure on people, this was my way of saying people like Cats / Xeris won't be able to get away with more bad posts. As this is a newbie mafia game I think going after anyone who makes an small mistake at the first is stupid. Thats how we end up lynching all of the worst players first, while the mafia kills the best and we are left with the middle. I'm going off topic here.. Show nested quote +I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out. Leaning, pressure same thing? You can lean on someone until they die here sir. It shouldn't undermine my point at all, as I said I was "planning on it" and I actually never did. My post defending Ceph here wasn't the best. I can admit that as I let him off the hook there. However I was planning on going over his posts in depth and going back on him, I just said I'd give what I had in the morning, and things had changed in the morning so I posted just a basic well I don't know, this post looks good. Which, without looking too indepth into it, it did look good. I call him out later and add points and help your case on him. I stand by my case that Cephiro still looks scummy, while you've now called him almost confirmed town in one of your recent posts. Show nested quote +However this morning you posted On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are. Your point here is wrong on the timeline. I posted this before you had posted anything on him, and I explain it above. Quit trying to say I do this twice, its just wrong. Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire. Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up ( linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player ( linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver ( linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play. At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook. He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this pointHe did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping. Don't you think he just followed the train on CookieMaker? Clearly our reasoning on him WASNT good reasoning. Maybe your not perfect with your reasoning? You also sheeped onto CM, and I did too. I'm clearly not saying "don't listen to good reasoning". And Ceph was sheeping? Your just adding more things onto your posts so its a HUGE wall of text and people will just assume that every point is good, and maybe not read it thorougly. Show nested quote +The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game.
And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling. This is stupid. I geuss not using commas should get me killed. "We can completely tell about Probulous being town, or not (or nothing at all)". I didn't mean we can tell if hes town or mafia. Just that there is no reason mafia would so heavily start a train onone of their own on the first night. YOU even agree with me later on after we "have words". But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is. This is the best bit? The fact that I havn't flip flopped off of him. First you call me out for not pressrue Cats /Cephiro enough and now your saying I'm doing it too much. And also I said your reasoning helped out my own I'm pretty sure. And I'm also sure I posted what my reasoning on Cephiro was. You're simply not reading and adding more to this huge text bomb of your logic. This is my post on Cephiro in its entirety, you seemingly didn't even look at this one. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 07:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 02:30 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 23:43 Blurry wrote:On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:On January 05 2012 12:46 Jitsu wrote:
RE: Cookie, Analysis
Damn, you're "Big Read" is of a suspected town player.
And another suspected town player.
Instead of posting who you think the Town players are, why don't you actually give us some reads on who the Scum players are? I think that would be more beneficial in a game where finding Mafia matters. Especially since we're 24 hours in and I don't clearly recall you posting any scum tell.
At all. Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3. Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'. ##Vote for CatsnHats The "I don't have to post analysis because he already said it post" Other than that most of his posts have contributed nothing and have just been filler. Didn't post his reads on any players until he was pressured into doing it. Don't you think these could just as easily be newbslips rather then scumslips? 'least, thats the way it looks to me. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 01:49 Jitsu wrote:On January 05 2012 20:22 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why?
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why?
3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why?
4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote.
6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
There is e secplenty of discussion in the mean-time where questions like these waste more logical thought than is required. If you want to WIFOM the proposed blue specials, do it later, but as of right now, there are better things to discuss, especially with the limited time we have left in the day to center our votes on someone. The DT and Medic are both roles that will need to be smart about who they use it for. Why are you even bringing in a Vig/Role Blocker when they aren't even in the game for the Town? I think there is a better question to be asked right now. Cookie subbed out at a bad time for you Tea. I don't think i'm the only one that is suspicious of the role that Cookie was given. Now, onto the second part that caught my eye. The bolded part at the end - the simple "you." I assume the "Abstinence lets scum hide among "you" refers to the town. However, since I was given the role of VT, I would have worded it as "us." Scum slip this early? Not a good start. I still think that if Cats flips red, you will too. But I also think that you're role is red. On the contrary, i find that asking questions such as these provide responses which can be most telling! I know that there isnt a vig or a blocker in the game right now, but those are the standard four questions i tend to ask in mafia games (i usually play closed setups). Its not so much what you'd do with your role, its your reasoning that proves to be interesting. Incidentally, it appears that you think i am asking these questions in order to wine the actual power roles and scums attitude towards them. This is not the case - i am asking because this is a tool i have always found helpful to help hunt scum! As for the part that you bolded - i thought it was clear that the "You" referred to the people who abstained, not town as a whole. It seems you are clutching at straws! Are you asking me to roleclaim? Because i don't want to do that regardless of what my role is. I've always considered Role Claims to be Bad (with a capital B!) and only to be used as a last resort. I'm nowhere near my last resort yet. After all, i just started playing! I understand that CM has left me in a bit of a poor spot...i'd like to remind you that Newbs often make slips that look scummy but are in fact newbslips. Too many times i've mislynched newbs for these slips! I'd further like to ask that you judge me on the posts that i make if possible (the quantity of which will hopefully rise soon). Whilst i of course understand that this slot wasn't played solely by me, its rather more difficult to defend CM then it is to defend myself, because i dont know what drove his actions, yknow? As for my reads...i'm getting a couple of light ones right now, but i'd rather do it justice and make one Big post (like my Mechanics post) so that i can both collect all my reads in one place and give ample reasoning behind them. I intend to sit down for an hour or so to do this properly later on tonight when i can have an unbroken hour of just mafia. I'll prolly end up writing a couple of paragraphs on each player stating what i think of em. Where did I suggest you role claim? If you view it as such a bad idea, why would you even bring that notion up? Really? It's rather hard to judge you based on you're posts now when we all have our own reads on players now. Just because you came in and subbed out doesn't mean you're role changed, similar to how if I subbed out now, people should still view my replacement as if it was me. Instead of telling us to disregard everything that was posted in you're capacity, come up with reasons now why we should disregard previous play. RE: Gonzaw - It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said. RE: Sheth/Votes - Before I even decide to switch my vote to Cephiro, I want to see his response to the accusation post by Probu. That being said, I will have to re-read his entire filter again and make a judgement, but a lot of things Cephiro said early was pretty damning. I have a question Sheth - earlier, you went to sleep teasing us with a post about some posts that were worrying you. The next day, you let us down by not giving us the post you said you were going to because the person under suspicion (Cephiro) came out with a [not very strong] analysis of every player in the game at the time, pretty much saying everyone was town and no one was really scummy. Than you came out and in the next post in the thread, jump on the Cephiro bandwagon, and start trying to get others to jump on it too. Sheth, I've played two (including this game) games with you, but I do know you like to play logically. Can you post you're original feelings about Cephiro, and than how you're thoughts transformed throughout the game from newb null read to scum read? What do you have to say to Cephiro if he said you were slightly neutral to scum? Are you town, Sheth? @Cephiro - Along with you're defense, I have something to add as well. There are a lot of times early in the game where you are pushing the idea that you are town. A lot of what you said seems forced to me. Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy. Reading that from a scum point of view, it's almost like you are trying to put the idea back into the idea of the town. What do you think of Sheth at this time, and why? Yea, I went to bed with some good ideas and wanted to think about it before posting. When I woke up and saw the new post I wanted more time to look at it and I wasn't sure my original point was too valid because of his new post. Around this time Probulous made his full post before I could fully look at Cephiro's post. And after reading Prob's post it rang true with what I was thinking earlier and it invalidated a lot of my "well maybe he is just town and not scum after all" points. (The fact that he was being agressive back towards me, and towards others was what made me cautious These were some of the things that made me think he was scum : "Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them." This post seemed off. Why would it be important that if a roleblocker from mafia isn't that good if we have no town roles. It just seems like something no town would think of. And the way its said just seems like hes trying really hard to insinuate that its "them" and "the mafia". Then : Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. This also rang bells. Town should never be "provocative", we should pressure. We don't want to create chaos we just want to use logic and pressure people. I geuss thats similar to provocative, but I think there's a difference. And saying that we aim to lynch someone "hopefully scum" just seems so bad. Obviously we want to lynch scum, why would you even say that? Its helpful either way, but clearly we want to lynch scum.. He then changes his opinion on no-lynch seemingly for no reason and says "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." Why would he say hes "not entirely convinced on a no-lynch. Just so many things that I think a mafia would make. Little things, but when added up they say a lot to me. Then he says "Or random accusations to get people to talk." You don't do random accusations, you find reasons and you accuse intelligently. Only mafia want things to be random as far as accusations go because they have a higher percent to not get hit. All of these posts had me really worried when they were added together. I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. And these are my points after going back and re-thinking about it. So jitsu, theres why I think hes scum. I am a townie, hopefully you'll see from my arguments. As to what I'd say to Cephiro if he says I'm null-scum, "Thats exactly what I'd expect scum to say"  At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo. Show nested quote +Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town. I'm posting a fact. We didn't lynch mafia first turn. Its more harmful to town if we all assume we'll lynch mafia round one and then we don't and everyone is discouraged. Also this post was made out of this timeline as well. It was one of my earlier posts. I've also recently posted what I feel about Xeris, and how he'll probably still be modkilled/replaced so I don't know why you'd quote an old post thats sense changed. Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too. This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything. The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him. quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.
This is Sheth's third game, he knows this is different. He even uses that as a reason for Xeris bad play when he says "And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts". But then he ends up saying he will have a good read because he has played with them offline?
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them.
No the reason Sheth has a good read is because Sheth is scum. There is nothing in his reasoning that suggest Xeris should be given special treatment but in Sheth's mind he deserves it for being REALLY townie.
Again, just going against what I've recently posted. Why not check my filter recently before posting a lie.
After all this he decides to discuss outing the DT (if we have one)  I thought by this stage we had made it clear that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Worse Sheth suggests the DT claim!
We were at the night phase, and thats when we need to talk about Blue roles. ESPECIALLY with most everyone here being new. You assume that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Mafia already know more about there being a power role or not based on their set up. And I suggested the DT claim if he has a mafia. There are so many things we havn't talked about Roleblocking and the DT / Medic set up that we have. There are some things that should be talked about here. Such as, when should the DT come out in your eyes then if there is one? And saying that I suggest the DT claim, without explaining why I said it, is just trying to get people to lynch me with a huge ball of text.
That is terrible as this would almost certainly draw a counterclaim from scum and put town in a WIFOM situation where both end up getting lynched/killed. It is a trade of a DT for a mafia, which he supports! No way, DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us.
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information...
It is 1 am and I need some sleep so I will this last bit quick. The vote and nightkill.
Sheth suggested I change my vote to AKCT because Cephiro was not going to get lynched. I was the fourth person to place my vote down at 08:15 (my time) by 08:26 the required seven had been reached by Sheth hammering it home. Those three votes were Cephiro, Cats and Sheth. There was no resistance to this lynch once I had placed my vote which means that people were sheeping. I had a strong case on Cookie from the start, but Sheth he went back and forth on Cookie. Only when the deal was sealed did he push really hard.
This is sooooo bad. Why would you post the last bit quick when you've spent so long on this? Aside from that, I was the one trying to get a lynch instead of a no-lynch correct. If we'd have not killed him that night, we'd have perhaps done the same thing the night after? I pushed for cookie before the deal was sealed, I pushed you to get on lynching him. You say that in your very post. Come on now, if nothing else, from reading my posts, PLEASE see this post is just wrong, bad and crazy. He suggests he'd rather have a no-lynch and that me trying to get a lynch (before knowing he was a townie or not) was a bad thing?! We all agreed that a no-lynch wasn't the way to go.
Finally the nightkill, here are Sheth's responses to AKCT questions
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.
Note I am first and and Tunk is dead. Sheth knows I have been of value and would probably be a good medic save, hence he puts me first. But he puts Tunk last, he wanted the medic (again if we have one) to save me so Tunk could get shivved.
I put them in order, Prob / Me, my two towniest at the time and then the other two I was happy with. Your honestly just putting down things based on "what you think I thought". Horrible, and its just more of your text wall that people won't want to read against me.
I am done guys, I was wrong yesterday but I am not wrong today. Sheth it seems you rolled red again, time for you to swing.
##vote Liquid'Sheth
[/QUOTE]
Please take the time to read this completely. It took me a lot of time, and if Xeris / Gretorp do happen to be modkilled and you misslynch me, were almost at LYLO. I'm not mafia.
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United States2095 Posts
Darn it, going to bold my posts, was too quick on sending that off. Bold is what I've added.
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United States2095 Posts
On January 07 2012 23:27 Probulous wrote:Before I lynch you i would like to apologise if you don’t like me using the photo. I will remove it if you give yourself up easily.The Baby-Faced Killer First things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong. Ok, I'm back and have time to talk. Why are you discrediting yourself here? We know you were wrong, we were wrong too. Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely Your likely to not get fooled twice? You've been using good logic and sounding townie, but why do you say this? Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go. My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject. I picked on Cats to get a read on him. I let off him for a little while true. However I still think its obvious Cats is playing this like a newb. Not nessecarily a mafia or a town newb, but I don't get why waiting a little bit on him and going on my more solid read of Cephiro was bad. Its what you did too. This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position. You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts. Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation ( Linky for context). Here is the meat of it Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Fluff Its fluff, but I'm trying to encourage Gretorp to post some. Pretty sure you've asked him to post more as well?Show nested quote +Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post. Joke? You did the SAME THING YOU JUST ACCUSED ME OF! You started putting pressure on Cephiro and just kept it on him. Thats exactly what my post there was trying to get us to do. Besides my post is exactly what your doing now on me as well. Forcing EVERYONE in this thread to comment on me. Your logic here is just fluff, I wasn't saying to "just pick one person to lynch", but to pick one person to pressure. Your either intentionally reading this wrong or just trying to add something to your case that has no point being here.This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep. Thanks for pointing out the same reason we don't do RNG. I wasn't implying we just pick on one person the whole day. Just that we go after one person with some REAL pressure. We started day 1 putting too little pressure on people, this was my way of saying people like Cats / Xeris won't be able to get away with more bad posts. As this is a newbie mafia game I think going after anyone who makes an small mistake at the first is stupid. Thats how we end up lynching all of the worst players first, while the mafia kills the best and we are left with the middle. I'm going off topic here..Show nested quote +I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out. Leaning, pressure same thing? You can lean on someone until they die here sir. It shouldn't undermine my point at all, as I said I was "planning on it" and I actually never did. My post defending Ceph here wasn't the best. I can admit that as I let him off the hook there. However I was planning on going over his posts in depth and going back on him, I just said I'd give what I had in the morning, and things had changed in the morning so I posted just a basic well I don't know, this post looks good. Which, without looking too indepth into it, it did look good. I call him out later and add points and help your case on him. I stand by my case that Cephiro still looks scummy, while you've now called him almost confirmed town in one of your recent posts. Show nested quote +However this morning you posted On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are. Your point here is wrong on the timeline. I posted this before you had posted anything on him, and I explain it above. Quit trying to say I do this twice, its just wrong.Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire. Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up ( linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player ( linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver ( linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play. At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook. He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this pointHe did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : On January 05 2012 09:04 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote:
@Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. I did not ignore your question. I will however give you an up-dated opinion once Cookie posts the rest of his reads, so please wait until that. (I am waiting for it myself quite eagerly) Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping. Don't you think he just followed the train on CookieMaker? Clearly our reasoning on him WASNT good reasoning. Maybe your not perfect with your reasoning? You also sheeped onto CM, and I did too. I'm clearly not saying "don't listen to good reasoning". And Ceph was sheeping? Your just adding more things onto your posts so its a HUGE wall of text and people will just assume that every point is good, and maybe not read it thorougly. Show nested quote +The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game.
And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling. This is stupid. I geuss not using commas should get me killed. "We can completely tell about Probulous being town, or not (or nothing at all)". I didn't mean we can tell if hes town or mafia. Just that there is no reason mafia would so heavily start a train onone of their own on the first night. YOU even agree with me later on after we "have words". But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is. This is the best bit? The fact that I havn't flip flopped off of him. First you call me out for not pressrue Cats /Cephiro enough and now your saying I'm doing it too much. And also I said your reasoning helped out my own I'm pretty sure. And I'm also sure I posted what my reasoning on Cephiro was. You're simply not reading and adding more to this huge text bomb of your logic. This is my post on Cephiro in its entirety, you seemingly didn't even look at this one. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 07:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On January 06 2012 06:15 Jitsu wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 02:30 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 23:43 Blurry wrote:On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote:On January 05 2012 12:46 Jitsu wrote:
RE: Cookie, Analysis
Damn, you're "Big Read" is of a suspected town player.
And another suspected town player.
Instead of posting who you think the Town players are, why don't you actually give us some reads on who the Scum players are? I think that would be more beneficial in a game where finding Mafia matters. Especially since we're 24 hours in and I don't clearly recall you posting any scum tell.
At all. Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3. Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'. ##Vote for CatsnHats The "I don't have to post analysis because he already said it post" Other than that most of his posts have contributed nothing and have just been filler. Didn't post his reads on any players until he was pressured into doing it. Don't you think these could just as easily be newbslips rather then scumslips? 'least, thats the way it looks to me. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 01:49 Jitsu wrote:On January 05 2012 20:22 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
1) If you were a Cop (could determine the alignment of somebody during the night), who's alignment would you check and why?
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why?
3) If you were a Vigilante (town-aligned nightkill) who would you kill and why?
4) If you were a Town-Aligned Roleblocker (could prevent someone from using their night action for a night) who would you block, and why? (Also, remember, an RB can act as a soft-cop. If you block someone and there's no nightkill, you may have blocked the mafia's kill! (Yes i know there's no Vig or RB in this setup.))
5) If you have a vote on someone currently, please explain your vote.
6) If you don't have a vote on somebody, please park your vote on someone. Have an opinion. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Abstainance lets scum hide amongst you!
There is e secplenty of discussion in the mean-time where questions like these waste more logical thought than is required. If you want to WIFOM the proposed blue specials, do it later, but as of right now, there are better things to discuss, especially with the limited time we have left in the day to center our votes on someone. The DT and Medic are both roles that will need to be smart about who they use it for. Why are you even bringing in a Vig/Role Blocker when they aren't even in the game for the Town? I think there is a better question to be asked right now. Cookie subbed out at a bad time for you Tea. I don't think i'm the only one that is suspicious of the role that Cookie was given. Now, onto the second part that caught my eye. The bolded part at the end - the simple "you." I assume the "Abstinence lets scum hide among "you" refers to the town. However, since I was given the role of VT, I would have worded it as "us." Scum slip this early? Not a good start. I still think that if Cats flips red, you will too. But I also think that you're role is red. On the contrary, i find that asking questions such as these provide responses which can be most telling! I know that there isnt a vig or a blocker in the game right now, but those are the standard four questions i tend to ask in mafia games (i usually play closed setups). Its not so much what you'd do with your role, its your reasoning that proves to be interesting. Incidentally, it appears that you think i am asking these questions in order to wine the actual power roles and scums attitude towards them. This is not the case - i am asking because this is a tool i have always found helpful to help hunt scum! As for the part that you bolded - i thought it was clear that the "You" referred to the people who abstained, not town as a whole. It seems you are clutching at straws! Are you asking me to roleclaim? Because i don't want to do that regardless of what my role is. I've always considered Role Claims to be Bad (with a capital B!) and only to be used as a last resort. I'm nowhere near my last resort yet. After all, i just started playing! I understand that CM has left me in a bit of a poor spot...i'd like to remind you that Newbs often make slips that look scummy but are in fact newbslips. Too many times i've mislynched newbs for these slips! I'd further like to ask that you judge me on the posts that i make if possible (the quantity of which will hopefully rise soon). Whilst i of course understand that this slot wasn't played solely by me, its rather more difficult to defend CM then it is to defend myself, because i dont know what drove his actions, yknow? As for my reads...i'm getting a couple of light ones right now, but i'd rather do it justice and make one Big post (like my Mechanics post) so that i can both collect all my reads in one place and give ample reasoning behind them. I intend to sit down for an hour or so to do this properly later on tonight when i can have an unbroken hour of just mafia. I'll prolly end up writing a couple of paragraphs on each player stating what i think of em. Where did I suggest you role claim? If you view it as such a bad idea, why would you even bring that notion up? Really? It's rather hard to judge you based on you're posts now when we all have our own reads on players now. Just because you came in and subbed out doesn't mean you're role changed, similar to how if I subbed out now, people should still view my replacement as if it was me. Instead of telling us to disregard everything that was posted in you're capacity, come up with reasons now why we should disregard previous play. RE: Gonzaw - It's a scum slip that I said the proposed blue roles, and that DT and Medic need to be smart on who to activate their specials on. I think you're reading way too far into it. I'll say it again, as well as reiterate what has been said many times prior; talking about Blue roles at this point is stupid. We have no reason to even bring it up since this is lynch day, and we don't even know if they are in the game, as you said. RE: Sheth/Votes - Before I even decide to switch my vote to Cephiro, I want to see his response to the accusation post by Probu. That being said, I will have to re-read his entire filter again and make a judgement, but a lot of things Cephiro said early was pretty damning. I have a question Sheth - earlier, you went to sleep teasing us with a post about some posts that were worrying you. The next day, you let us down by not giving us the post you said you were going to because the person under suspicion (Cephiro) came out with a [not very strong] analysis of every player in the game at the time, pretty much saying everyone was town and no one was really scummy. Than you came out and in the next post in the thread, jump on the Cephiro bandwagon, and start trying to get others to jump on it too. Sheth, I've played two (including this game) games with you, but I do know you like to play logically. Can you post you're original feelings about Cephiro, and than how you're thoughts transformed throughout the game from newb null read to scum read? What do you have to say to Cephiro if he said you were slightly neutral to scum? Are you town, Sheth? @Cephiro - Along with you're defense, I have something to add as well. There are a lot of times early in the game where you are pushing the idea that you are town. A lot of what you said seems forced to me. Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy. Reading that from a scum point of view, it's almost like you are trying to put the idea back into the idea of the town. What do you think of Sheth at this time, and why? Yea, I went to bed with some good ideas and wanted to think about it before posting. When I woke up and saw the new post I wanted more time to look at it and I wasn't sure my original point was too valid because of his new post. Around this time Probulous made his full post before I could fully look at Cephiro's post. And after reading Prob's post it rang true with what I was thinking earlier and it invalidated a lot of my "well maybe he is just town and not scum after all" points. (The fact that he was being agressive back towards me, and towards others was what made me cautious These were some of the things that made me think he was scum : "Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them." This post seemed off. Why would it be important that if a roleblocker from mafia isn't that good if we have no town roles. It just seems like something no town would think of. And the way its said just seems like hes trying really hard to insinuate that its "them" and "the mafia". Then : Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. This also rang bells. Town should never be "provocative", we should pressure. We don't want to create chaos we just want to use logic and pressure people. I geuss thats similar to provocative, but I think there's a difference. And saying that we aim to lynch someone "hopefully scum" just seems so bad. Obviously we want to lynch scum, why would you even say that? Its helpful either way, but clearly we want to lynch scum.. He then changes his opinion on no-lynch seemingly for no reason and says "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." Why would he say hes "not entirely convinced on a no-lynch. Just so many things that I think a mafia would make. Little things, but when added up they say a lot to me. Then he says "Or random accusations to get people to talk." You don't do random accusations, you find reasons and you accuse intelligently. Only mafia want things to be random as far as accusations go because they have a higher percent to not get hit. All of these posts had me really worried when they were added together. I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. And these are my points after going back and re-thinking about it. So jitsu, theres why I think hes scum. I am a townie, hopefully you'll see from my arguments. As to what I'd say to Cephiro if he says I'm null-scum, "Thats exactly what I'd expect scum to say" At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo. Show nested quote +Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town. I'm posting a fact. We didn't lynch mafia first turn. Its more harmful to town if we all assume we'll lynch mafia round one and then we don't and everyone is discouraged. Also this post was made out of this timeline as well. It was one of my earlier posts. I've also recently posted what I feel about Xeris, and how he'll probably still be modkilled/replaced so I don't know why you'd quote an old post thats sense changed.Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too. This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him. quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.
This is Sheth's third game, he knows this is different. He even uses that as a reason for Xeris bad play when he says "And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts". But then he ends up saying he will have a good read because he has played with them offline?
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them.
No the reason Sheth has a good read is because Sheth is scum. There is nothing in his reasoning that suggest Xeris should be given special treatment but in Sheth's mind he deserves it for being REALLY townie.
Again, just going against what I've recently posted. Why not check my filter recently before posting a lie.
After all this he decides to discuss outing the DT (if we have one) I thought by this stage we had made it clear that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Worse Sheth suggests the DT claim!
We were at the night phase, and thats when we need to talk about Blue roles. ESPECIALLY with most everyone here being new. You assume that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Mafia already know more about there being a power role or not based on their set up. And I suggested the DT claim if he has a mafia. There are so many things we havn't talked about Roleblocking and the DT / Medic set up that we have. There are some things that should be talked about here. Such as, when should the DT come out in your eyes then if there is one? And saying that I suggest the DT claim, without explaining why I said it, is just trying to get people to lynch me with a huge ball of text.
That is terrible as this would almost certainly draw a counterclaim from scum and put town in a WIFOM situation where both end up getting lynched/killed. It is a trade of a DT for a mafia, which he supports! No way, DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us.
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information...
It is 1 am and I need some sleep so I will this last bit quick. The vote and nightkill.
Sheth suggested I change my vote to AKCT because Cephiro was not going to get lynched. I was the fourth person to place my vote down at 08:15 (my time) by 08:26 the required seven had been reached by Sheth hammering it home. Those three votes were Cephiro, Cats and Sheth. There was no resistance to this lynch once I had placed my vote which means that people were sheeping. I had a strong case on Cookie from the start, but Sheth he went back and forth on Cookie. Only when the deal was sealed did he push really hard.
This is sooooo bad. Why would you post the last bit quick when you've spent so long on this? Aside from that, I was the one trying to get a lynch instead of a no-lynch correct. If we'd have not killed him that night, we'd have perhaps done the same thing the night after? I pushed for cookie before the deal was sealed, I pushed you to get on lynching him. You say that in your very post. Come on now, if nothing else, from reading my posts, PLEASE see this post is just wrong, bad and crazy. He suggests he'd rather have a no-lynch and that me trying to get a lynch (before knowing he was a townie or not) was a bad thing?! We all agreed that a no-lynch wasn't the way to go.
Finally the nightkill, here are Sheth's responses to AKCT questions
2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg.
Note I am first and and Tunk is dead. Sheth knows I have been of value and would probably be a good medic save, hence he puts me first. But he puts Tunk last, he wanted the medic (again if we have one) to save me so Tunk could get shivved.
I put them in order, Prob / Me, my two towniest at the time and then the other two I was happy with. Your honestly just putting down things based on "what you think I thought". Horrible, and its just more of your text wall that people won't want to read against me.
I am done guys, I was wrong yesterday but I am not wrong today. Sheth it seems you rolled red again, time for you to swing.
##vote Liquid'Sheth
[/QUOTE]
Please take the time to read this completely. It took me a lot of time, and if Xeris / Gretorp do happen to be modkilled and you misslynch me, were almost at LYLO. I'm not mafia.
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My posts to your thoughts against me are in bold.
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Do you have no counter to what I've said after reading it twice?
CatsnHats, your just sheeping again. Your not even saying why other then what Prob's already said about me. You even say that I handled the Xderis situation shady. What is that?! Why do people think I've handled that poorly? I know them IRL, it gives me a way to know them better. Its also a lot more fun to play with people who you know in RL, and its annoying to have them lynched merely because there inactive at first. Even if I did "ghost it" with Prob's analysis, how are you not doing the same thing right now?
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Going to point out two of the main problems you have with my posting is my calling out Cats and then Cephiro. You say I ghost your read on him as well. You then talk about me not voting early on AKCT and following you again.
On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote:Alright, my Sheth read. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. 
I did remove the negative points you have on me in that quote, such as my defence of Xeris and defence of Cats and not completely training my thought on Cephiro early on. However I don't see whats caused you to change your mind so quick?
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro.
@Probulous what has caused you so suddenly to think Ceph is town?
I'm going to do a write up on what I've seen recently, so hopefully you answer is good.
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Ok, I'm going to sleep now. Will be on tomorrow at some point, and I'll write out my whole list of reads on everyone. Also I'm disapointed that after reading through it twice your still voting for me.
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On January 08 2012 13:01 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis.
Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!!
How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me.
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I'm staying up till Responsibility ends. (My last game here). So please post while I'm still here Prob! Or Cats!
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@Probulous You say two things that are outright wrong, and you don't even answer my question very well.
You say "In essence your case against Cephiro was based on mine and some serious reaching, which you even acknowledge. But that is enough to vote for him?"
I don't acknowledge it was based on serious reaching, only that you helped it out. Why do you ask "But that is enough to vote for him?" because you voted for him as well. Only now are you so cleanly letting him off the hook.
Also you say:
You didn't mind lynching Cephiro because you know he is town. From my reading it seems you hoped my case would be strong enough to convince people and when Tunk didn't want to budge you moved the vote to AKCT. You knew I was suspicious of him due to my case so of course I would vote for him and that my case (and others) could be used to convince others. I made a mistake there, which I regret. I should have known a miss-lynch was coming with the way that train got going. Unfortunately my major scum-read at the time was busy proving his townieness. That left Cookie and Cats, and I was more certain of Cookie than of Cats.
You say that I don't mind lynching Cephiro becase you know he is town. And that he has "proven his townieness". This DIRECTLY goes against what you have said earlier. NOT the fact that you thought he was scum, but your saying that you are SURE that if I was mafia, I woudln't try and throw accusation onto another mafia. We discussed this day one and you were on the other side of this argument. Just because I think hes mafia, my flipping town or mafia woudln't prove anything one way or the other, WERENT YOU the one who points this out. AND NOW your going the other way with it.
You then say that you should have known a miss-lynch was coming by how the train was going. I don't understand why you are complaining about this so much now. Our other option at the time (with so many people being away at lynch time) was Cephiro. And with Tunk having left, I was worried about a no-lynch, as were you. This is fluff and just distracting AND giving yourself a loop hole with :
This time I won't be swayed, you will be lynched and if not I will hold the others accountable for their decisions to let you live.
This is the sort of thing you'd post if you were mafia. Giving yourself an excuse to either A : Cause a no-lynch, or B : Lynch me no matter what happens with the rest of the day. You can just say, well I said I was lynching Sheth at the start and not move your vote. I'm definetly filtering you again when I wake up. Your last 5 or so posts are so different from the Probulous I thought I knew.
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On January 08 2012 13:46 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 13:04 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On January 08 2012 13:01 Probulous wrote:On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis. Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!! How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me. It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see. There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard. You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go.
I told him to "Provide his reasoning on Gretorp"
You told him to "Provide his reasoning on Sheth"
I then keep pressuring him letting him know that I'm not letting him out with this post
@CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting?
I realize that I undermined my post, but I went right back into it. You've done the same thing by saying that he should "stop undermining yourself" in effect showing you believe in him.
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@Cats / Blurry/ Anxious and even you Cephiro the proven townie of Probulous, are you willing to put your vote on me?
You should answer this one way or the other. Please don't just say "because Probulous says so" though. Find your own reasons for lynching me, and just please check my answer for it, if I've answered whatever problem you may have with me. We should be looking at others and I really wish I had the energy to write up a huge post tonight on everyone. Responsibility just ended, G'nite guys, cya in the morning.
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1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on.
Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 18:07 CookieMaker wrote:On January 04 2012 14:22 Probulous wrote:
With that I am leaving till tomorrow. See you guys at about 08:00 KST tomorrow. Jab and dodge eh? I like your style. I'd actually also like his opinion. At the moment I am very content with the way the town is developing. There is clearly a trust developing among several players who employ similar town-favored tactics.Also, I enjoy watching Sheth stir the pot, but he's kinda leaving the lid off without giving it a chance to boil. I'm interested to see what our current inactives have to say; I think even the majority of the Nords have already piped up. And now I sleep in the hopes that during the night little elves will come and whisper in the ears of our inactives, and whence they rise an impulse stronger than coffee shall empower their mouse cursors to look at their TeamLiquid PM's and realize that they should be posting in this thread about their regret at not having posted sooner. Tunkeg I'm giving you some leeway because of the timezone comment but I swear to Odin....  Thought of some cute food for thought: Surely rotten eggs will indeed be the those whom first crack in the steamer This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother
sheth tell us what posts are bothering you
Also, where did blurry go?
Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro :
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:23 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 01:10 Tunkeg wrote:
What is it that makes you think CookieMaker is slightly town? You have listed alot of anti-town things about him but not one pro-town thing. He had a very good start in my opinion, posting actively and talking about the different possibilities. I also like the fact that even though he is (or at least was) in favour of the no-lynch, he didn't give up on his thoughts just like that, but was sticking up for himself and why he thinks it's a good idea. I do have to admit that his last posts are quite fluffy, which is why I'm only carefully and only slightly leaning towards town on him for now. Jitsu had a few very good points about him though, which I slightly agree with. But for now I will still stick to my opinion about slightly town, until he posts more. He is on the edge of neutral and slightly town to me though. Also, I am finding myself on thinking of Jitsu as slightly town now. His last post was exactly what I wanted to see from him. On the other hand, I am still not sure about you. I think you are going slightly overboard with how much you are asking other's opinions, but not providing as much of your own. You have been suspecting quite a lot of people this early, and to what I see, there are two possibilities. Either you are mafia and trying to confuse people by trying to accuse a bit of everyone, or then you are just playing aggressive town, fishing for reactions for easier reads. I certainly hope you are the latter. But I remain neutral on you for now. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 02:38 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 02:24 Tunkeg wrote:
@Ceph and Cats
You guys say I have been suspicious to many players allready. Well, then you missread me, I am only suspicious to CM atm. xeris and Gretorp I am not suspicious of as of yet, just saying I will vote for them if they don't step up.
In my post to Blurry I didn't say I think he is suspicious, only that he haven't contributed greatly yet.
Ceph you said you think I have made to many questions posts and to little content posts. Well, to me content is opinions and analyzis of others play, and in my opinion I have allready made more content than you, including your day one analyzis post. I will give you credit for putting it out there, and it might lead to some discussion, but I think your reads are to vague and therefor the value of it isn't the greatest.
In closing I will say that I am not suspicious of you two as of yet, so there will be no missunderstanding. I see, good of you to clarify that. After re-reading your filter a few times, I personally think that you have posted a lot of opinions, but not that much analysis. I do see your point what you're getting at, and I also do understand your opinion about my analysis post. I do have to agree with you they don't tell that much yet, but I am trying to provide others an idea of my opinions at the moment, and raising dicussion to help me clarify my reads. Might also have to do with me still being excited to get this game started. + Show Spoiler +Hopefully they will answer your question posts seriously so we'll get more content thanks to you. I am not suscpicious of you either, but your recent answer enables me to get a better understanding of your playstyle, which I thank you for.
About your question as of Jitsu's post, it seems like he likes to concentrate his play on a few persons, which is very understandable. For me that post is making me lean to slightly-town on him, but I would like to see him take contact to more persons and his opinions about others too. If he isolates himself to only put pressure on these two it can have it's good sides, but at least I want to hear more of his thoughts before I say anything. He hasn't posted very much yet, but I still don't think he's scum. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote:On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote:Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : + Show Spoiler +On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information.Also... Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote:
Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment.
Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise.
Player List:
1.CookieMaker
For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me.
2.Liquid`Sheth
Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post.
3.AnxiousHippo
Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral.
5.Tunkeg
Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon.
6.Jitsu
Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads.
7.Xeris
All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral.
8.Gretorp
Same as above, neutral.
9.Gonzaw
Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here.
10.Blurry
Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum.
11.Probulous
Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back.
12.CatsnHats
Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions!
I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote:
Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1.
A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea Show nested quote +On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote:On January 06 2012 08:23 Probulous wrote:
Two questions Ceph
Would you vote for AKCT?
From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me.
Thanks for coming out guns blazing. Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are:
Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp.I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that.
Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read.
2. Cephiro
There have already been a lot of posts talking about him. We've went over everything except his defense from Prob's attack. So I'll go over that a little bit.
He constantly points out that Prob's early posts weren't that good. While there were some points that were fluff from Probulous at the start, he also had some of the best early posts if I remember correctly.
The first two pages besides that seem like a pretty good defense. The last page I think is a bit worse though. Its here :
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 08:16 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +Probulous wrote:
Thanks for nailing the coffin.
In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful.
Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing. Here you totally disregard my post earlier about how I answered Jitsu's question, not blaming him. Did you do that on purpose? Are you kidding me? Look at your own posts. I am certainly not following anyone in this game, but if someone notices a very valid point that I don't, which I agree with, why shouldn't I change my opinion? It would be idiotic to play this game by your first-post-reads about everyone. This game is constantly changing, and you need to understand that. Also, you are accusing ME of following, when what you did is dropped the case against me altogether, and jumped on the bandwagon right after Probulous has posted his analysis. Are you sure you aren't talking about yourself? Show nested quote +Probulous wrote:
Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment. Trying to make yourself look innocent after going full speed with the Cephiro-train? That is such an outright lie. You are being so eager on lynching me and don't seem to be considering anything else to the slightest, and you say that would provide no information if I flipped town? For me, that would certainly look like a mafia player wanting to get an active town player out asap. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what? Show nested quote +Probulous wrote:
I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference?
By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. IF your analysis is good. What if you're making a huge mistake? You are claiming that if I flip town, I was a very scummy town, only based on your fine analysis. You're just keeping trying to convince people about how you are not mafia or how they can't tell if you're mafia or not if I flip town. Goddamnit, stand up for yourself and admit you are certainly not looking too good when I would flip green in a lynch. "In your land" Well, this isn't your land, and neither is your analysis the only book of law we go by with. I'm still concerned by the fact that you aren't sharing any of your reads except the ones you claim to be scum. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic.
If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about.
If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie.
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles? Show nested quote +CatsnHats wrote:
Yeah I know I look scummy. People are holding my first two newb posts against me and it's clouding their judgement on the rest of my play. At this point in the game Cephiro is definitely more scummy than Gretorp, especially in light of Gretorp promising a long post and his being at work all day. If he follows through it would alleviate a lot of my concerns with him Jumping on a bandwagon to save yourself scum? Did Gretorp ever give you that long post? Show nested quote +CatsnHats wrote:
I just getting all the possibilities out there, and I said that you all being mafia was low probability, so if anything that would be taking suspicion from you. As I have said before from the beginning, my third (albeit a distant one relative to the others) at the moment is Xeris due to his no-lynch posts, lurking, and non-responses to player questions. He has left very little material to go on, but that is my third for now. For me it's Cephiro>CM>Xeris. I could see Xeris dropping off this list though when he, Gretorp, AH, Blurry, and others post again. Moar bandwagon, you are just blindly convinced by everything Probulous said trying to hide and save your own scummy ass. Show nested quote +Xeris wrote:
Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Still no posts after this, wants a no-lynch (Free kills for mafia anyone?), but at least he isn't jumping on bandwagons blindly unlike some others. Show nested quote +Jitsu wrote:
Also, there is a point where you are jumping back and forth between a miss-lynch and no-lynch policy I have been true to my first post statement the whole game, we NEED to lynch someone on day 1. "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." If you mean that, it was in response to CookieMaker's posts, since he was actively pushing for no-lynch at start. That I am not convinced on a no-lynch equals to I am not in favour of it. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore. Show nested quote +Probulous wrote:
AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this? Considering your wall-of-text, you should know that it's not exactly a fast thing to compose a defense against all your accusations, especially if I want it to be in a readable format. What did you do yourself during the first 24 hours? Stick around for the start, come back after everyone else has provided enough content so you can make your analysis. You are still trying to discredit the whole post because I answered gonz's question about my experience in Mafia, trying to claim it's just fluff. Answering other players' questions is not fluff. If you didn't notice, "What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted." Which you seem to totally ignore. Reading through last page now and answering any possible posts that have come up in the meanwhile.
He takes me and Probulous' argument about what a flip tells us and seemingly just takes small parts and talks against them.
Liquid`Sheth wrote:
And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie.
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Is it just me or are you contradicting yourself when talking about my possible flip? You're saying it wouldn't tell us anything and then you are saying it will cause the other side to look like mafia.... Just... what?
There was no condradiction here. I was simply answering Probulous' post and talking about every possible variation.
Then this :
+ Show Spoiler +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Ok, because we have two good reads on scum CatsNHats and Cephiro, I'd like to talk about something else until they come back. There is a chance there is a detective. There is a chance there is a medic.
If you are the detective, you should NOT choose the person who you think will die during the night. You should pick someone who you'd like to know about and isn't likely to be killed soon, and who would really help town to know about.
If you are the medic, you should choose the few people who you think mafia might want dead on this night and WIFOM in between them. However this night you have an advantage, and you might for future nights as well. Mafia isn't sure you exist. The best % they have is that if they have a roleblocker, there's a 50% chance you exist. Because of this, I'd recommend if you exist simply use your ability on who you think is the most townie.
Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them?
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At the start you discredit my statistics post, but a bit later on your start talking about power roles yourself? If you find a mafia you should come out in the open and tell it? Sheesh, could you be any more obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles?
I'm asking when is wise for blue roles to come out. As this is a newb game and it STILL hasn't been covered much I think its very valid. Your statistics just told us %'s, but nothing on when they should come out and help town. You take something that is pro-townie and call it "obvious mafia trying to fish out the players with power roles". Thats not something a townie would do.
He then calls me out for "bandwagoning" himself
+ Show Spoiler +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him.
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Again, not continuing your pressure, but letting someone do the dirty work for you. What on earth are you doing Sheth, at first you tell everyone that they should not trust you or anyone else, but think for themselves, and now you're bandwagoning hardcore.
And his very next post is this gem :
On January 06 2012 08:22 Cephiro wrote:
Placeholder vote since I am quite sure I will not have enough time to convince the town on lynching someone else, sorry AKCT. :/
If there are some specific points anyone of you want me to answer, please point them out now.
##Vote A Killer Cuppa Tea
His next post is :
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 08:44 Cephiro wrote:If I am not mistaken: A Killer Cuppa Tea (9): Gonzaw, Tunkeg, Blurry, Probulous, Cephiro, CatsnHats, Liquid`Sheth, Jitsu, AnxiousHippo Should be relatively safe if everyone sticks to their votes, since the current vote would need 3 members to drop off to force a no-lynch (if none of the inactives post their votes.) And I think it would be quite a dumb move from mafia to pull all three members to force a no-lynch on the first day, so I doubt that is going to happen.
Where he tells the mafia what they shoudln't do. Saying its a dumb move for mafia to move three members to force a no-lynch. Its not a huge deal, but in the few games i've played, I find that mafia talk in this style. A townie wouldn't even say something like this, they'd hope mafia was in fact dumb enough to move all three members to force a no-lynch.
So, based on this and the earlier posts my read on him is :Mafia
3. Xeris -- Inactive lurker. He'll either get Modkilled or Replaced.
4. Gretorp -- Inactive lurker. He'll either get Modkilled or Replaced. Hard to know anything about 3/4.
5. Jitsu -- Initially for pressuring Cookiemaker. Tries to get Anxioushippo to post more actively instead of lurking. Keeps his pressure on both players. Puts his read on players when asked. Leaning town on me, and town on Xeris back a while. (Which shows he agrees that real life experience can be helpful)
One of the first, if not the first to actually vote on CatsnHats. Made a slight logical mistake. He assumes that if a DT comes out then the medic has found their core role. (He kind of assumes there is a medic, which isn't for sure if theres a DT, however he would assume this if he was mafia and knew there was a roleblocker. However this seems kind of farfetched as no roleblock occured day one).
However, wow. After reading his filter I can really see where I've been playing really badly towards him. My posts talking with you about cats were pretty blinded by my recent post about him trying to suicide lynch himself.
After reading through your filter I can see a lot of points where Cats is playing really bad / scummy. He posted out of his self-lynching pity into a guy who is going after others. And your initial posts on him switching between bandwags and so on are actually quite good. After looking in depth on your filter I'm going to definetly re-read Cats a few times to see if I do still think he is a complete newb, or a complete scum newb.
I'm also pretty sure that once I say this post Cats is all of a sudden going to want to lynch me, but I'm ok with that. As of re-reading your filter jitsu I think both :
Jitsu is a townie read, my best so far on this filter. AND I need to re-read cats, which is lucky as hes still on my list to do!
6. Catsnhats --
Starts off by saying he is
+ Show Spoiler +On January 03 2012 15:00 CatsnHats wrote:
/in
I've never played before but I saw Sheth was playing so I figured I had to give it a try!!!
And I will admit I find it hard to lynch people who start with this, as I feel bad slightly. I know I need to ignore that, but still its tough for me to go all out for people who are playing because of me. I'm going to do my best to ignroe this and post a purely logical analysis.
Keep in mind Jitsu's filter as well (as it covers a lot of good things on Cats!).
This post :
+ Show Spoiler +On January 06 2012 08:25 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I was about to ask you to change your vote to Tea, but you did it before I could finish.
Tea/CM was on my scum list the whole time (check my filter), so I'm fine with lynching him instead of a no-lynch D1.
##vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea
Sticks out for me. Hes only fine with lynchimg him because "he was on my scum list the whole time!"
It seems to me like hes trying very hard to show that the reason he is ok with voting for him is because hes been after him the whole time. Howver Cats up until then hadn't really posted any hard information on anyone, he has pretty much accused everyone. Probulous, myself, Jitsu, Cookie this list goes on of people he has accused. And his logic for switching seems just like "well you can't blame me for this, I can't get lynched becuase of this!".
He also posts that I'm his "best read" on scum, or something very similiar, then after my defense he isn't ok with lynching me. Just flip flopping again, and he does explain why though. Saying his post about how he feels that all of us are attacking each other too much and that we need to be focusing on the lurkers more. Interesting.. We do need to hear more from Blurry / Xeris / Gretorp / Hippo, I agree. However until they post and what not, this is our best bet, to figure out whats going on out of the active players. Lynching a lurker is just about the worst thing we can do. I realize you didn't say to lynch a lurker, but thats kind of what you were hinting at I think.
So, again, because of his post about self-lynching being so crazy from a mafia point of view, I'm at a Null-scum read on him at the moment.
Going to split this up into two posts, so its not too long of a single post.
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EPT
