EPTYour analysis sucks balls
Purgatory Mafia - Page 6
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Your analysis sucks balls | ||
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layabout
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layabout
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You also have not sufficiently shown how his plan is anti town. Before RoL suggested his plan I: -Was suspicious of him for not doing anything to help day 1 -.and i felt that his "voting mistake" and support of the erandor lynch after it had been decided were not things that were in his favour. -I was enjoying the game and i did not really wish to adapt a plan that could radically change the way the game was playing out, in a negative way. The first time I read though -I did not have a particularly open mind when i read through his post. -I thought it would take the fun out of the setup -I thought it was a bad plan and that it was anti-town and that by trying to push it RoL was trying to mislead and hurt town. -I immediately began to criticise it and voiced my initial concerns -I also thought back to the things syllogism said to me when he was my coach in sudent mafia (i posted the relevant bit) When i joined that game a lot had happened. I caught one scum and i was trying to find the other. My mindset was very much a case of, he has said X in this post this specific thing could be scummy IF... . I was looking for small things and trying to make them scummy rather than taking an objective approach and using processes such as elimination or trying to look at general behavioural patterns. I had a hard time discriminating between bad, anti-town and scummy Syllogisms responses essentially changed my approach I had been looking for reasons that would people scum, i was forcing my analysis. But then i realised that Tunkeg's proposing his anti-town plan was not a scummy action and his subsequent behaviour seemed green. I then turned my full attention back to xtfftc and velinath and BH voted him with me and BL the goon surrendered and we won and there was hip hop. -I decided to reread, ask for an instance of RoL suggesting a plan in the past, i tried to ask more pertinent questions and i looked closely at what RoL was saying in response to the thread. -I became increasingly convinced that the plan might work and that it could actually have a good outcome. -Then as i was brushing my teeth, i thought of a way for scum to "break" the plan -I tried to articulate this and posted it. -I also do not believe that RoL has acted in a way that is scummy, based on what i have read. So, i opposed it at first, I tried to look at his posts from an objective standpoint, it made more sense, i thought of a criticism that was strong and made it. I feel like you had made your mind up before you began to analyse what RoL was doing and that you did not really explore his plan or his actions enough to conclude that he is scum. You definately have not done enough to justify | ||
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layabout
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layabout
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mind explaining to me why you hammered the lynch 10+ hours early? | ||
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layabout
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+this game was the first time i had been around at lynch time so i am pissed that i missed it. My other concern is that night appears to be bad for scum-hunting. | ||
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layabout
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On January 12 2012 02:08 Jackal58 wrote: Ya I believe I have apologized for being impulsive before. And wrong. And no I didn't apologize to Erandorr because Erandorr was max derp. If it makes you feel better next time I vote for somebody I'll post DIE MOTHERFUCKER along with it. Why did risk.nuke deserve an apology from you? | ||
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layabout
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On January 11 2012 08:16 Jackal58 wrote: I'd assume risk.nuke since his vote is on him. I'm leaving my vote on diz for the moment because he is apparently not going to get hammered anytime soon. Also because he's scum. We have 5 scum left. More than enough to kill either risk or RoL atm. As that hasn't happened yet it's possible we have 1 from each team hanging there. I'm leaving for the evening so please refrain from doing anything stupid for the next couple of hours. Like a massive vote switch. Unless you all want to switch to diz cause like he is scum and all. On January 11 2012 23:45 Jackal58 wrote: You are best lynch. But I'm not going to hold my breath. Let's see if there is a reason for voting for somebody nobody else is interested in voting today. ##Vote: risk.nuke. If you flip town risk I am sorry. And now I await everybody telling me how scummy I am for hammering you.  Was that the full extent of your reasoning for hammering risk? | ||
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layabout
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I will not post much post tomorrow because of IRL stuff. | ||
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layabout
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layabout
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layabout
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and everyone else what's with the inactivity? | ||
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layabout
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Make actual arguments and criticsms. Realise that you will not be right all of the time. Stop the tunnelling. Grow a pair. | ||
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layabout
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On January 13 2012 03:34 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: If you think this, I don't know what to tell you. Say a day starts with 1 corrupted town, 3 demons, and 3 angels. In this situation, demons win nearly 100% of the time. Given the fact that there are investigative roles and an anti-corruption role, demons are definitely not looking to drag this game out more than they have to so long as those roles are still alive. What in the fuck? | ||
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layabout
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after this post + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2012 02:56 syllogism wrote: I can't believe I somehow had missed this So first you called them both scum and then 10 minutes later you have to read Tyrran's filter to answer. You never posted your thoughts on Tyrran after that. You have done absolutely nothing in the last few days. I'd read the rest of your filter but it's a bit too taunting to bother right now, but just the above peculiarity is starting to make me wonder if your scum play too resembles that of WBGs. On January 13 2012 03:24 Blazinghand wrote: I didn't say i was gonna read tyrran's filter, just that i need to if I want to make a read. And honestly, I haven't read tyrran's filter, and when I feel like it, I'll make a read on him. At the moment, though, that's completely non-relevant to my interests. You know why? Because I've already got a target that I'm 100% sure is scum, and I will push him until he gets lynched. That's all that matters now. I literally don't give a dick about what other people are because at the moment we need to kill RoL. He's obvious scum and the fact that people are unwilling to lynch him despite the fact that he's literally done nothing useful all game is disheartening at best. On January 13 2012 03:24 Blazinghand wrote: Also tyrran is probs scum On January 13 2012 03:27 syllogism wrote: Oh another instant delurker. Your case is incredibly bad whether RoL is scum or not and thus it's extremely difficult to believe your confidence is genuine On January 13 2012 03:28 Blazinghand wrote: Also if you have a case to make against me, read my filter and make it. If I'm scum, you need to put together a comprehensive case. My filter is large, but that shouldn't be daunting-- there should be a plethora of evidence for you to find. Also my filter isn't THAT large. Don't half-ass it. Make your case, if you really think it exists. If you don't, you're either a lazy worthless town or a scum player stirring shit. #ComeAtMeBro On January 13 2012 03:29 Blazinghand wrote: Are you kidding me? No, you're just not reading it. RoL's plan is bad. If he believed in his plan, he'd be pushing it right now! THINK ABOUT IT. The plan applies as long as no masked flips have happened yet, now on N2 is our last chance to implement it. He's obvious scum pushing a shitty plan to get a couple VT claims. God, it's like you don't even bother making reads. Or like you're his scumbuddy. On January 13 2012 03:30 syllogism wrote: You hadn't read tyrran's filter, but you called him scum. You still haven't read his filter, but you call him scum. On January 13 2012 03:30 Blazinghand wrote: ??? No response to my questions I see, just dodging. On January 13 2012 03:31 Blazinghand wrote: "hi my name is syllogism and I'm trying to make a case against blazinghand, but because I'm scum I won't actually make one, and instead just say random stuff" <--- this is you, syllogism On January 13 2012 03:34 Blazinghand wrote: yeah dont got nothing to say to that do ya On January 13 2012 03:39 Blazinghand wrote: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I BELIEVE. What matters is that it *IS* objectively a good case. God what is iit with you people and belief Look RoL obviously scum, why isnt' he pushing his plan RIGHT NOW. WHY ISN'T ROL PUSHING HIS PLAN RIGHT NOW THATS RIGHT HES SCUM AND ITS A SHITTY PLAN @Anybody that isn't Blazinghand What the flying fuck do you think Blazing hand is doing here? Do you think he makes any valid points at all? Do you see any questions that he has asked that syllogism is dodging? I will henceforth ignore Blazinghand | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On January 13 2012 04:21 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: What? He said an angel hit on a townie was bad for demons, and that is absolutely false. If demons get down to that scenario, they lynch an angel, 2/3 chance they remove a potential kp and win automatically. Then 1/3 chance they get the observer, then angels need to get both hits through the twisting/sending to purgatory, so they need to hit the only 2 unprotected of the 4. So 1/18 total chance of angel win if it gets down to that scenario, and that is assuming they know which one is town out of the 4. Lower if they don't. So if angels hit nothing but town, which he claims is bad for demons, the demons will very likely win. Hell, even if they don't have a corrupted town left alive and it is a regular vt, town gets a minor victory by killing all angels, so it would be the same result anyway unless the townie decides to ignore that minor win condition. Why on earth do you base your decision of "does killing town benefit demons?" on an unrealistic (and in this game impossible) extreme scenario in which there are 3 demons 1 corrupted town and 2 angels left in the game? In order for them to make use of the corrupted town mechanic demons need to corrupt town players. They need these players to be alive to count towards their win condition. All three angels and the sage are immune to corruption. Plus the demons cannot corrupt themselves. The demons get 1 corruption every two nights. As it currently stands: there are 13 non-demons out of 15 players. 9/13 can be corrupted. 3 blues 6 vanillas. it is likely that several of these players will not still be alive by night 4 (the demons next corruption). Killing vanilla town weakens the power of corruption drastically. It reduces the number of players that can be corrupted increasing the chance of is missing. And it increases the proportion of blues and Angels in the player base which increases the chance that demons will be investigated or killed. Demons need to kill 2/4 blues and 3/3 angels and gain a majority with corruption, killing vanilla town is a bad lynch from the demons perspective only a demon or the seer flipping is worse for them. (the value of a channeller lynch for them could be argued either way as the channeller keeps players alive but could stop a corruption). | ||
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layabout
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But just proving the point that demons don't mind townies being dead. You simply cannot use Prove in this context. You have not proven anything. DOES ANYBODY ACTUALLY POSSES THE ABILITY TO THINK! -no editing here- | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
...states: that the quantity of bullshit posted by a player is directly proportional to their percentage chance of bring a non-town aligned role" or P (Player X is scum ) is approximated by K x B ----------- B + N Where "K" is the coefficient of Bullshit, 0.7<K<1 K is dependent on the game set-up, a normal set-up has a Bullshit coefficient of 0.96 whilst a 4 faction game with Bullshit Vigilantes would have a K value of 0.701. And N is defined by (Player X's Total Number of posts after game start) minus (Player X's number of one liner posts that do not contain Bullshit or Content) "B" is "Player X's" Bullshit score What is a player's Bullshit score? A players bullshit score is calculated by adding up the players total number of bullshit points that they acquire: (a work in progress) A player states anything that isn't a fact as if it were a fact + 5 A player speculates without an apparent purpose + 5 A player votes without providing any reason + 5 A player promises analysis and then repeats what has already been said + 10 A player role claims without a good reason + 10 A player says they will not be online and then posts in another thread + 20 A player refers to a general or vague statement made earlier to prove that they always had their current opinion + 10 A player contradicts themselves +10 bonus + 5 if the contradictions are within 3 posts or an hour of each other + 5 if it is within the same post A player makes a summarising comment that does not relate to alignment and calls it "scum hunting" or "analysis" +5 Any logic that can be WIFOM-ed +10 A player write lots of words without drawing any substantially conclusions +5 A player writes a list of all of their reads +10 +5 if over half of them are "Null" or "Scum" A player does something and at the same time apologizes for doing it despite being in the act of doing it +10 A player comments on a post that he hasn't read +10 +5 if they criticise part of it +5 if in doing so they ignore the entire point/argument presented in said post 1/2 points are awarded if the content is implied + (that players percentage of the total posts amongst the living players where there are more than 8 players living divided by) (K^2) No single post can score more than 35 bullshit points. lets start by looking at bullshit scores in practice. Since this game has 3 teams and there should be no-strong reason for bullshiting the bullshit coefficient is = 0.84 Bluelightz Bullshit score: Total posts since game start: 60 one line content/bullshit-less posts: 25 side note: Bluelightz may in fact be a BOT programmed to announce its sleeping patterns publicly and ask people who they wish to lynch + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:54 Bluelightz wrote: Im about to sleep >.> but anyway i got like half an hour so do what you will! On January 05 2012 05:15 Bluelightz wrote: im gonna sleep now cya in a few/lots of hours On January 05 2012 11:42 Bluelightz wrote: Blast me with questions now im available again!  !On January 06 2012 01:07 Bluelightz wrote: Okay Palmar, I'm about to sleep.So, ask me what you want to ask now :3 On January 06 2012 09:39 Bluelightz wrote: Okay guys I'm back! Anyway, holy derp we have votes spread on 4 people ._. I'll be updating my reads on people and looking more closely at people On January 07 2012 00:38 Bluelightz wrote: Okay guys i'm going to sleep cya in the morning On January 07 2012 10:17 Bluelightz wrote: I'm awake now anyway will read thread. On January 08 2012 09:54 Bluelightz wrote: I was sleeping >.< >.< I tried to switch >_> <_< On January 09 2012 01:20 Bluelightz wrote: Im gonna sleep now gyus, also I want to notify you that the period's I will be available will be shorter because School! is starting On January 09 2012 18:39 Bluelightz wrote: Okay guys I'm back anyway, I'm LOLing so hard at Palmar's flip XD also, I'm very glad no townies died that night :> On January 10 2012 00:16 Bluelightz wrote: I'm gonna sleep now guys cya when I get back from school! :D On January 12 2012 00:01 Bluelightz wrote: Im gonna sleep now guys On January 12 2012 19:32 Bluelightz wrote: I'm back now! On January 13 2012 00:42 Bluelightz wrote: I'm gonna sleep now guys gonna make a case on someone when i get back from school On January 06 2012 13:01 Bluelightz wrote: Risk, who do you want to lynch? and why? On January 10 2012 20:18 Bluelightz wrote: @risk Just this, who do you want to lynch and why? join the discussion! When you are available just post your thoughts.And now, I told everyone already that there would be difference on when I post. On January 09 2012 20:21 Bluelightz wrote: @Dirk who do you think is scum then?and why? On January 10 2012 21:03 Bluelightz wrote: Okay risk, i believe you for now. So, who do you want to lynch? why? On January 11 2012 23:53 Bluelightz wrote: ._. sorry risk +10 Apology relevant to the game + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 21:36 Bluelightz wrote: Okay here's the continuation of my reads Errandor, Null: Lurking cannot determine alignment Grackaroni, Null: His posting contains his case against me and discussing about the lurkers in this game. HarbingerOfDoom, Null/Leaning Town: His posting contains discussion of strategy for town, Discussing LA-Lurkers Jackal58, Null: 2 posts since the start of the game cannot determine alignment. Layabout, Leaning Town: When I compare when Layabout was town in Student and if he is town here his posting style is much the same being aggressive and starting discussion Mr.Wiggles, Leaning Town: His posts while not alot has very good content. Palmar, Leaning Town/Null: His post's generate discussion and he starts discussion himself. RebirthOfLeGenD, Null: Lurking cannot determine alignment. Refallen, Null: His posts contain discussion about the lurkers,etc risk.nuke, Null: Has not posted alot syllogism, Leaning Town/Null: His post's generate discussion and he also shares his reads with others. Tyrran, Null: While lurking a little I can't determine his alignment xsksc, Null: Needs to start posting Zepphird, Null: His post's discuss about LA-Lurkers and strategy Okay I'm done if you have a question about my reads go for it !Now, I have many town reads because this is day 1 and also people haven't posted much(including me) So, here it is! +10 +5 list of reads, all null + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 12:09 Bluelightz wrote: Updated list of reads: Blazinghand, Leaning Town: From the way he is posting I assume that he is Town Cwave, Null: His post's contain pressure to Dirkzor discussion about strategy Dirkzor, Null: When comparing his post's from Mr.Wiggles Mini and Here he acts differently, In Mr.Wiggles Mini he analyzes other people's post, etc that is town Dirk. But here, he discusses Strategy,etc but this is a new/ diffrent setup Errandor, Null: Lurking he has not contributed in any way so i cannot determine his alignment Grackaroni, Null: His posting contains his case against me.discussing about the lurkers in this game. and responding to accusations by HoD HarbingerOfDoom, Null/Leaning Town: His posting contains discussion of strategy for town, Discussing LA-Lurkers Jackal58, Null: He votes for Palmar because of meta. Layabout, Leaning Town: When I compare when Layabout was town in Student and if he is town here his posting style is much the same being aggressive and starting discussion Mr.Wiggles, Leaning Town: His posts while not alot has very good content. Palmar, Leaning Town/Null: His post's generate discussion and he starts discussion himself. RebirthOfLeGenD, Null/FoS: Lurking cannot determine alignment but, he had 6 hours after he started to post in the thread Refallen, Null: His posts contain discussion about the lurkers, also his suspicions on Palmar and risk.nuke risk.nuke, Null: Has not posted alot so, Null syllogism, Leaning Town/Null: His post's generate discussion and he also shares his reads with others. Tyrran, Null: While lurking a little I can't determine his alignment xsksc, Null: Needs to start posting Zepphird, Null: His post's discuss about LA-Lurkers and strategy For now, I want the lurkers to start posting. +10 +5 another list of reads all null + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:52 Bluelightz wrote: Okay, im back guys :p Im gonna start responding to cases and make cases myself. Anyway, first I clearly said that I wouldn't be available till about now(Flight was delayed ;|) Anyway, my thoughts on lynching lurkers. It ends up lynching a townie usually No comments on the actual plan suggested a vague comment on LaL to dismiss the plan He refers to the quoted post as a "case" and says he will respond to it but the only thing in the posts he mentions is that he was on a airplane. (+20 for contradiction /2 for being implied) + 10 for not showing he has read the quoted post + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 21:21 Bluelightz wrote: As of now, I'll be switching my vote to Errandor as he is the best lynch for now. First, before this I am still supicious of RoL, i am also suspicious of Grackaroni. First, his post's Filler. Says, he will contribute Ask's a question to Palmar, nothing shining his alignment here Err, nothing shining alignment. Ask's a question. Ask's a question to Dirkzor and admits a mistake, here he like in BH's cases "Hustleing" Filler -,- Okay, so he say's he will contribute but from his filter Evidently NOT So, this is the reason's I will be voting Erandorr empty summary comments (6 x 5) implies that it was his analysis +(10/2) + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 22:55 Bluelightz wrote: also, to make it clear im unvoting Erandorr and Voting Tyrran Reason why, Here, Tyrran talks what a townie should do Strategy. Filler His case against refallen Talking about meta Responding to HoD's case Now, here is where I think he's scum, "As for who i would lynch now, the three target i have in mind are Errandor , for lurking and being useless , Jackal 58 for being overly agressive on pamar with no real case behind it, and Palmar because i found your case solid." ^wat? First, Erandorr is leading at votes but now Tyrran just following rhough with it just listing simple reason's I feel like he is scum when you read his steamship filter, he made cases etc etc http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=282366&user=57176 so, I'm unvoting Erandorr and voting Tyrran comments presented as analsis +(6x5) couldn't be arese to work out the percentage of current player votes but it would be about 10 After a hurried scoring the resulted are in! B=135 K=0.83 N=35 Bullshit-based chance of flipping scum= 0.66% (2s.f.) I believe that makes him the person with the most thought out and well reasoned case for being scum. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Is it worth asking Zona to let me edit the post to update the Bullshit score counter? | ||
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layabout
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On January 13 2012 08:24 Spaackle wrote: I'll be around for a little while, so feel free to ask/tell/compliment/insult me anything. Your bullshit score is under 5% congrats. If i were to suggest to you that the majority of HoD's post are about "safe" or irrelevant issues that do not require him to take a stance; That he draws and promotes strange conclusions; that a lot of his interaction's and question answering ignore the issue at hand; that he picks up on non-issues and tries to uses that to defeat arguments; and that misrepresents scenario's or mis-applies concepts like occam's razor you would say what? | ||
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