EPTTL Mafia XLVIII
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Radfield
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On December 04 2011 02:49 Qatol wrote: If I can get a ride from DC to the lan, I could do this. You should just play in this one instead  | ||
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On December 04 2011 08:10 Toadesstern wrote: let's assume I get a fancy as hell new role noone know like the time traveling draon palmar suggested. That means that the pm you guys send me telling me I'm a fucking dragon explains what super awesome powers I have and it's all I need, right? The actual answer is yes. Your role PM will explain to you any perks or limitations you have and how to use them. If you have questions then PM the host. | ||
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EDIT: I'm a Queen! | ||
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On December 04 2011 19:49 syllogism wrote: Incog seemed to randomize teams in PYP:I, so I definitely wouldn't lynch based on perceived balance. As for setup balance, I don't think it's useful to speculate about it given how little information I've available and how little it actually matters in terms of how we should proceed. Either way, we will likely know the answer after n1. I think towns have recently been doing better on the average than a d1 random lynch and considering the obvious downside that people will not have to justify their votes, it's a bad idea. Even if I didn't have a clue who is more likely to flip scum and who isn't, I will at the very least have town reads by the end of the day. If a player who I got a town read on happens to get RNGed, it would be pretty hard not to argue against the lynch. I would even go as far to state that I would rather mislynch day 1 due to scum diverting the lynch from one of their own than RNG and hit scum, but produce no information at all. Agreed. Other than starting discussion, I think RNG has very little value. It simply doesn't mesh very well with most of our primary day 1 goals. In particular, getting the mafia down on paper and forcing them to state who they want to lynch and why. RNG: 2 ##Vote prplhz | ||
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On December 04 2011 19:38 Palmar wrote: Sup. If we assume the hosts went with the most obvious way of balancing the game, two people out of this list are scum: Radfield Palmar Jackal sandroba syllogism redFF I'm not sure if I agree with that list. I could easily see 1 of those 6 being scum, not two. I would narrow it down further if you want to go that route: Radfield Palmar sandroba syllogism 1 of those 4 are scum. However, I think that kind of thinking is at complete odds to proper play. Towns can be stacked and still implode(Caller. BC and Fishball in Closed Casket), and mafia can be stacked and still get washed out(Radfield, iGrok, Kitaman, GGQ, DocH, Cyber_Cheese in LOTR). If hosts are smart they will start true RNGing the set-up and seeing how things turn out. | ||
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What I'm more interested in is that 6/25 seems like an oddly high number of mafia for a normal setup. Do you think this is offset by lower mafia KP or multiple town power roles? Given the nature of the closed set-up, I would imagine that town has some excellent roles. I would also guess that mafia have at least 2 KP, possibly with access to some amount of extra KP(ie: around 2.5 KP). Standard KP is also possible though(#mafia/2 rounded up) which would mean lylo on Day 3. In that event I would imagine town is pretty stacked vs a fairly low powered scum team. In any event, 6 mafia vs 19 town means that town almost surely has access to KP. Either directly in the form of Viggies/Hatters, or indirectly via a hidden double lynch or something. Otherwise we will struggle to kill the mafia before they kill us if we mislynch the first few days. I would guess 3 or 4 townside KP. | ||
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On December 04 2011 21:59 hyshes wrote: So you guys don't exclude yourself from a 'possible scum list"? Of course not I don't expect you to think I am town based on me saying so. I expect you to watch my play and gradually exclude me from being scum based on merit. | ||
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On December 04 2011 22:22 sandroba wrote: @Radfield Did I read your post wrong or did you dissagree with random lynching and proceeded to random vote? Correct. | ||
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1. If you do not establish your innocence, and have to spend your time defending yourself, you have much less time actively searching for scum. In addition, it can be difficult to scum-hunt when everyone is debating your alignment. You become biased. 2. It is far easier to build a case and gain support for your cause if you have already established an air of innocence. Why would I listen to someone I think is probably scum? 3. Getting lynched Day 1 is generally the worst failure of a town-aligned player. All townies should seek to eliminate their name from the short-list of lynches. | ||
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Where would you rank it? | ||
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I actually quite like the idea of zodiac lists. Some players have very strong town abilities, and mediocre or weak scum abilities. By placing those players on a list, you let them know that they are being held to their high town standard in this game, and that coasting is not an option. Unfortunately more than half the players in this game I have not played with before, and half of the rest I have only played with once or twice. My personal zodiac list is Palmar, syllo and sandro, as I know those three players can play to a certain standard, and I expect them to this game as well. | ||
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Technically I'm misusing the term here. All I am really talking about is a list of players who playstyles I am familiar with, and who I am going to be keeping a close eye on. | ||
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On December 05 2011 00:20 Drazerk wrote: Sigh I hate zodiac lists they let players such as myself skate by too easily -.- Also radfield is it really needed to establish a throw away vote so early on? Who said it was a throw away vote? Prplhz belongs to the class of players who have the potential to be strong players, yet are not well known enough to draw medic protection or dt investigations. I'm genuinely interested in his response and Day 1 contributions. | ||
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On December 05 2011 00:35 Radfield wrote: The original zodiac list plus a follow up comment several years later. | ||
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On December 05 2011 00:39 Drazerk wrote: I dislike randomly voting people at the start of day to spark discussion as it just allows the person to do a blind omgus rather than focusing on everyone. Your not going to stick with Prplhz throughout the entire day at any rate and if you do you will just be tunnelling him which has too many drawbacks. If prp wants to blind OMGUS me then I'll be highly disappointed. I can also assure you I will not tunnel someone on Day 1 On December 04 2011 19:08 Drazerk wrote: /confirm however I am going to be out all day ill be around in 9 hours Plans change? | ||
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On December 05 2011 00:55 annul wrote: this is retarded as fuck nobody direct power roles into any list. Settle down annul. No need for hyper-aggression. What I actually wrote about the zodiac lists: Technically I'm misusing the term here. All I am really talking about is a list of players who playstyles I am familiar with, and who I am going to be keeping a close eye on. No one is talking about organizing blues. | ||
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On December 05 2011 00:57 TruthBringer wrote: I don't like the idea of using a zodiac list. I feel like it can be used by the mafia to get townies to hang other townies. I don't think we should lynch anyone on day 1, personally. I know mafia get kills at night, but blues also have powerful abilities at night. People are saying 6/25 is high, but it is probably offset by the town having powerful blues or quite a few blues. Also, I've been out of the TL mafia loop for awhile, so if it comes to day 1 lynching, I'll be completely worthless as I can't read any of you at all. If we end up no-lynching today, that is ok(although non-optimal). Keep in mind our Day 1 goals: 1. Create a positive atmosphere. Clarity, no arguing, etc. 2. Get everyone's votes and thoughts down on paper. Force scum to bullshit about who they want to lynch and why. 3. Establish baselines of activity for players for use in future days. Again, a no-lynch is not the end of the world, but we don't want to enter the day with a mindset of no-lynching. We want to enter the day planning to find scummy players, and gather a majority. You don't need to be able to 'read' anyone. Support people making sense, lynch people who are playing poorly. Past experience with players is useful, but not essential by any means. Even if you don't think you can find scum, contribute and make sure you don't get mistaken for one(assuming you are town). | ||
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On December 05 2011 01:46 redFF wrote: or just autolynch you if you don't die night 1  I'd prefer you to wait until after night 2 At that point I wouldn't blame you.I'm 8 for 9 on being dead before then when i'm an unprotected townie, and 4 for 5 on being alive when scum. | ||
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On December 05 2011 01:57 TruthBringer wrote: @prplhz We don't have to do anything on the first day. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. I admit that we have more data if we hang someone, because we can see that person's alignment and who voted for him and who voted elsewhere. But more data doesn't mean we are in a better position. If we hang a powerful blue, and the mafia isn't overrepresented in the vote to lynch him, that does us no good. You seem to think that I can pick out scum just based on bad ideas, but some people are just not good players or come up with bad plans, how am I to know the difference? Like I said, I don't have the experience right now to make the distinction. Also, there can be differences of opinion. You and I might both be good guys and honestly have different opinions on whether it is a good idea or bad idea to hang on the first day. At some point we have to do something. We can't just sit around letting people die until an investigative role(which may or may not exist) pops in and gives us a red result. On day 1 and 2, more data almost always DOES mean we are in a better position. Roles are far far less important than the people using them. I'm not about to sit around waiting for blues who may be derping with their roles anyways, and you shouldn't be either. I'm also not going to worry about lynching someone who looks scummy because they might have a good role. | ||
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On December 05 2011 02:35 syllogism wrote: To be fair, I directly asked him what would a balanced scum team be like. I'm more interested in the lie, or more generously a distortion or careless wording, he used in his attempt to attack me. Also not liking how Sandroba popped in to ask a few relatively pointless questions and then disappeared without commenting anything. However, It's rather unlikely I will be advocating lynching either of them d1 and they do have quite a while to shape up anyway. Triple agree. | ||
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On December 05 2011 02:34 VisceraEyes wrote: Red's case on Palmar is surprisingly good (as far as d1 cases tend to go)...I've skimmed the whole game and I'm up to page 7 in an actual read-through (moving backward), and I'm good with this. ##Vote: Palmar Wishy-washy setup speculation and no opinions. Scum. No, the case is based on Palmar actually having something to say, as if it wasn't the first post(s) of the game. Why are you so eager to put down your vote? | ||
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We need a whole lot more chatter in here: 1. StimilantE 6. Erandorr 16. kingjames01 18. Soap 19. Lanaia 22. vaderseven 24. Hier You folks need to get in here and start talking. 3. Refallen 7. hyshes 10. Jackal58 11. sandroba 13. TruthBringer 23. Mattchew and you guys need to talk more. New discussion topic: + Show Spoiler [ Jackal's first post] + On December 04 2011 23:57 Jackal58 wrote: Good morning. Role confirmed. Game on. Random lynch on day 1 seems counterproductive to me. On day anything really. What would you perceive as a benefit to doing that Palmar? Posting lists right out of the box about players who are likely on the scum team due to the hosts balancing reminds me a bit of Zodiac lists that have been posted in previous games. More often than not those lists were posted by scum. At least in the games I've seen them used in. You scum Palmar? The only way to 100% establish your innocence is to die. The last few games I've been trying to watch how scum players enter the thread. It's something I've always found a little difficult as scum. You have to somehow establish yourself in the thread, while simultaneously not draw attention... or at least that is the inclination. This post jumped out at me, and I'm wondering if it jumped out at anyone else. The tone, the touching on every subject, the shifting of attention back onto Palmar(twice). Anyone else or am I seeing things? | ||
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"Just want to sit around and wait for power roles to do OUR job" The "our" in this case can mean "the townies". As in, waiting for the power roles to do the townies job for them(scum hunting). or "Just want to sit around and wait for power roles to do OUR job" It can mean what you are implying: having townies sitting around waiting for the blues to do their job(night actions). Given the context of his statement, it seemed apparent he meant the first meaning, and was not blue claiming at all. | ||
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On December 05 2011 06:08 redFF wrote: radfield what do you think of palmar, you seem to have ignored my case on him which is the only coherent case in the thread so far. what do people think of corrupt stating "so many suspicious people already" and then when asked who, stalled for a while before only listing 1/2 players? Zephirdd's non vote then vote after i pushed him also strikes me as scummy. I'm waiting for Palmar to respond, and to play more. I don't mind your pressure though. Corrupt looks terrible after that exchange, almost too terrible I'll admit that I'm not really sure what make of it just yet. If we had no other good majority candidates, he would be an excellent fall back at this point.Zephirdd's vote was humorously scummy, but I think it was done in good faith. He's on the good side of the line for the moment. | ||
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On December 05 2011 06:10 Drazerk wrote: Really I just want jackal to post a bit more before I get a read on him. I really don't have that much on VE bar the fact he is Sheeping red I generally dislike anyone who agrees with me too much. It's a habit I got from earlier games but people wanting me alive generally turn out to be scum ( Unless I've claimed mason or done something extremely stupid ) Fair enough. I was intending to wait for a few more Jackal posts before writing that, but the thread seemed like it could use a kick in the pants. | ||
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I assure, I will very much be pushing or supporting a lynch today. In addition, if my 'random' vote stays on prp all day, THEN you can call me scummy(and I will agree), but the day is not yet half over, and I'm not going to bounce around like a madman. My vote served it's purpose. | ||
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On December 05 2011 07:55 vaderseven wrote: He mentions some truth and not so good things in a mixed up manner here. No lynches make day 1 worthless and the daytime is the time that the town has power. The town is an uninformed majority (or else the game is over) and a majority controls the lynch. In his list of 3 goals for day 1 I find goal 1 to be one that is there to just discredit aggressive players, point 2 is 100% correct and the only real goal, and point 3 is a neutral fall back thing to state as any alignment. He says a no lynch isnt the end of the world but then makes it clear how we should never start of thinking it is a goal. I really think he is trying to subtlety push this option. He doesn't want to get labeled as pushing it but is trying to bring up every small detail that can be viewed as positive for such a end to the day. His 2nd goal, the one that matters the most and is the most correct, is the one that he is not doing himself. I find that to be scummy as hell. He KNOWS the reasons for needed votes and cases and yet has a RNG vote (that he declared before making was worthless via stating that RNG isn't useful). No lynches do NOT make day 1 useless. However, I agree that no lynching is bad, and that we don't want to do it. Lets leave it at that. Goal One is absolutely not there to discredit aggressive townies. There is a very big difference between being aggressive and shitting up the thread. Two players arguing back and forth is awful for a town, mafia is allowed to coast, and can easily redirect attention. Two players calmly discussing reads can work wonders(read Mini mafia X with Palmar and Sandroba). I'm stating that one of our primary goals is to keep the thread moving appropriately, and down avenues that are constructive to town. Aggression is just fine: Redff is being aggressive, and I like it. prplhz is being someone aggressive, and it's good too. Annul is also aggressive, and doing a fine job. No problems with any of their play so far. Point 3 is also important. Scum players tend to be more active at the beginning of a game, and taper off as the game goes on. Town players tend to do the opposite. | ||
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On December 05 2011 08:09 Toadesstern wrote: I interpreted what he said as disagreeing with me and some other people who said a no-lynch is the worst possible option for town. I think he just wants to imply that a "probably-/maybe-townielynch" is worse than a no-lynch and I just don't think so. He wants to have this option as a final save I guess, instead of lynching someone he thinks is a townie. However I think he's wrong with that one because as far as I can see a no-lynch will be ruining town-atmosphere. A no-lynch happens when there's no majority so town splits up, which does not have to be the end of the world but if there's noone telling us which side was right it will give us a 2nd day that's just the very same discussion again, with everyone who thought his choice on day1 was right thinking his choice is still right and the other way arround. If that happens town atmosphere is really screwed imo. Happened 2 games ago to me and I don't want it to happen again. I was a blue in a beginners-mini and said something along the lines "everyone please start posting, no matter if you're blue or green we need you and if you're a blue trying to hide that really gives you away". So a bunch of people came along and said I'm scum because I'm telling blues to reveal themselves and they tried to lynch me and someone else. A no-lynch happened and we had the same scenario for 3 days until I got shot on night3 by mafia. Days 1 and 2 were wasted because there was a huge fight over who of us two is actually mafia, day 3 was wasted because of a shitty decision that had nothing to do with that. Sooooo, I don't really want that to happen again. I would definitely prefer no-lynching over lynching someone I have a strong town read on. However that was not really my point. My point is that even if we wind up at a no-lynch, we still gain a lot of valuable information from the day, and that it's no reason to get upset or feel like town is now at a disadvantage. The reason town atmosphere gets screwed (imo) is not because of the no-lynch, but rather due to the reactions to a no-lynch. The real problem with your scenario is that players were not willing to change their reads. Day 2 is NOT the same as Day 1, no matter if there is a lynch or not. Your reads should be constantly evolving and narrowing down onto scum, hence why even in no-flip(alignment not revealed on death) games towns can still do decently. | ||
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On December 05 2011 08:16 vaderseven wrote: I guess I just can't get over the wifom element of point 3 but I am also the type that posts alot no matter what. In all fairness, point 3 is not nearly as important, and is just something I generally do. It's really just a corollary of point number 2. I imagine if you read the townie guides you would not find it in there | ||
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On December 05 2011 08:17 syllogism wrote: Radfield: do you really find that annul is being aggressive and doing a fine job? I thought he played well in XLVII but so far his pressure has been directed towards irrelevant things, such as prplhz's "slip" and some general strategy related topics I think he's doing a great job establishing himself as likely green. His aggression seems honest, though I agree somewhat misguided. Eventually it will swing around. I also fully agree with his pushing of prplhz's "blue claim". I've always been of the opinion that anything I can see, mafia can see. | ||
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You just made me randomly burst out laughing | ||
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I'd much rather we stop talking about Palmar until he actually responds. It's far too easy for people to pop in and say "yeah Palmar is the only one who looks fishy right now". Lets drop it for 8-10 hours and have people comment on other players. | ||
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On December 05 2011 08:50 Erandorr wrote: Okay I just got home and I have a question for you, Rad. What are your thoughts at this point? Is there anyone that is standing out to you? Do you know what I was just thinking? I was looking at my notes and saying, hey, Erandorr said he would be gone for 6 hours and it's been almost 8. I just jotted down a nice note saying you were looking scummy if you didn't post tonight I have many thoughts at this point, but none of them are near concrete enough to be airing into the thread. There are still a half dozen players yet to post, and another half dozen who need to post more. There are several players who I am waiting and watching for them to post more on their own, without being called out. Jackal was the one I wanted to talk about, but very few players have touched on his post, and he has not weighed in either. I think so far we are doing decent, but we need more activity to call this a successful Day 1. | ||
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On December 05 2011 08:53 Toadesstern wrote: right now? So far I got mostly things that make me think people are town  Nothing wrong with that. It's all I really have too It's far easier to pick out town players on Day 1 than mafia players. | ||
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On December 05 2011 09:35 Erandorr wrote: Okay Radfield, this is starting to give me a bad feeling. I first noticed it when you stated that you feel like a good town atmosphere includes no arguments. You are doing a great job involving a lot of people in the conversation, but it is really, really easy to look town when there is actually not that much to comment on and scum are in no way forced to reveal information. What we have right now is a very peaceful town, but not one that is looking like it is gaining a lot of information anytime soon and you are doing very little to change that. Would you mind sharing your thoughts now, so they can be discussed and we get a better sense of your alignment at the same time? As I stated, what current thoughts I have regarding alignment I would rather not put in the thread just yet. I'm not really sure what you want me to do. I'm in danger of having half the posts on the previous page. I cannot do this on my own, nor can I force other players to post. For now I will settle with poking and prodding as much as I need to. Why are you so worried about what I think? Look at my activity level, if something comes up you will very likely hear what I think of it. In addition, if the thread isn't moving towards a lynch tomorrow I will do my best to rectify it. Not to mention with an activity level this high my alignment will make itself known on its own. There's no need for me to force everything into the open to prove my innocence. You have read the thread Erandorr, what are YOUR thoughts? Why is your first real post asking me what I think, rather than stating what you think. You're a solid player Erandorr, and we both know you don't need me to hold your hand. I first noticed it when you stated that you feel like a good town atmosphere includes no arguments. You know what I mean by this, and I'm positive you agree. No need to stretch my words. | ||
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On December 05 2011 09:48 annul wrote: btw, it is unfair to radfield i guess for me to say "isnt taking positions at all" -- he took a small handful of them... but the ratio of "hey X, Y?" to "i think Z" is very high No one is talking.... I'm trying to get people to talk. We're moving at a snails pace right now. | ||
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On December 05 2011 10:30 Erandorr wrote: I made that first post because I noticed that, while you were engaging people in the game, you didn't really give us anything yourself. The fact that I still have not got anything out of you after an exchange of 3-4 posts sort of justifies that , don't you think? Why don't you want to share thoughts on alignment if you have noticed something? Get everybody to comment on it, see how the players react, or in other words, create some content yourself instead of complaining that no one else is doing anything. I wouldn't call the way you play ant-town, but its actually not helping that much either. And since you are on of the very good players in this game , I feel like we can hold you to a certain standart, as you pointed out correctly. My style is not slapping votes down and pushing players all over the place on Day 1. You state you want my 'thoughts' on the game, read my filter. If you have a specific question, ask it and I will answer it. "Why don't you want to share thoughts on alignment if you have noticed something?" Yes I have alignment reads, and obviously at this juncture none of them are near solid enough to merit posting. The reason people listen to me is I generally don't build a case until I have something to go on. Spouting about every possible scumread will only lower my(or anyone else's) credibility. Certainly I am not going to jump in and say hey guys, I think these 4 players look suspicious. That simply allows mafia to cherry pick which one we should discuss. "I wouldn't call the way you play ant-town, but its actually not helping that much either." You are insinuating here. My play so far has been characterized by clarifications, prodding players for their opinions, squeezing comments out of lurking players, answering questions and redirecting the conversation onto hopefully productive topics. If you find something specifically wrong with my play, shout it out. If you have questions, ask away. I'm fine with you holding me to a high standard of play, I will meet it. I also expect a certain level of play out of you as well, which I am sure you expect. I made that first post because I noticed that, while you were engaging people in the game, you didn't really give us anything yourself. The fact that I still have not got anything out of you after an exchange of 3-4 posts sort of justifies that , don't you think? No, "not getting anything out of me" does not justify you having no thoughts of your own. It certainly does not justify you reading the entire thread, and your only contribution coming out of that being to ask ME my opinions and thoughts. Who do YOU think looks scummy, who do YOU think should be lynched, what do YOU think of the current game? | ||
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On December 05 2011 10:52 prplhz wrote: People who have disappointed me with their activity so far: StimilantE: Is this guy even /in? I checked his filter and there was no /in post. Is this guy in and does he even know it? If you are, then start posting, your XLVII lurking will not go in this game. sandroba: Radfield also pointed this out. You said before we started that you wanted to try a new play style, can you tell us about this? It sounded a lot more exciting than you have shown so far. hyshes: Well it is your birthday so I suppose I'll cut you some slack. Soap: No posts. Mattchew: Joking around and being useless. If you don't know what to talk about then you probably haven't read the thread. If you have, then post here and encourage people to ask you stuff and maybe you'll get lucky. You missed Kingjames01 and Heir. Neither have posted. We also need more from Corrupt and Truthbringer, our two current easy targets. Jackal and Lanaia also need to jump into the conversation a bit more. | ||
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I know you know how syllogism and I(Palmar) play with each other. If I want him lynched people are going to notice. And not to mention, I have no interest in lynching syllogism day 1 as scum or town, I know he can be lazy as either alignment, and his scumplay isn't particularly scary so far, while his town play is some of the best on TL. What ARE your throughts on syllo, Palmar? A null read, or are you leaning one way or the other? I'm against any kind of lynch on Soap, Corrupt or Truthbringer. I realize no real bandwagons have gotten rolling against them, but I want to preemptively stop any. All three of these players are 'easy lynches', that is, easy for mafia to make a case against them and leave their vote there, basically skirting any real responsibility to scum-hunt. Something is up with Jackal this game, and I'd be ok lynching him at this point. However, I'm not going to push this hard on my own. Palmar, Syllo and Sandro, you guys were all in Merc Mini, how would you compare Jackal's demeanor and tone this game to that one. How would you compare it to a game he was town, like LOTR? Syllo, I agree on Heir. That case looked like he was told to go after you by another player. I'm ok voting him, but ideally I want to hear more first. Heir, speak up! Hyshes, Drazerk and Lanaia all need to pick it up or are going to find themselves on the wrong end of a Day 1 lynch. Likewise, Supersoft you are here now, make it count. ##Unvote | ||
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On December 05 2011 21:23 redFF wrote: ##Unvote meh palmar you're ok for now can't get over corrupt saying "so many suspicious people" and then only being able to list 1 and then ignoring my pushing of the issue. ##Vote Corrupt I agree there is something slightly off about Corrupt, but I think that makes him an excellent target for a vig or hatter, NOT an excellent Day 1 lynch. What do you think? + Show Spoiler + I'm not against the pressure though | ||
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On December 05 2011 21:42 Palmar wrote: Why? It's far more demoralizing for town to mislynch and have a vig shoot correctly. I haven't formed an opinion on Corrupt, but your statement makes absolutely no sense, we should always lynch the number one scum read. The idea is to avoid voting or allowing people to vote for players with very little reasoning. Voting for someone who has barely posted at all tells us nothing about the voter. I want people to have reasons and explanation with their votes. Lets face the facts, anyone can waltz in right now and say "Corrupt looks super scummy, vote corrupt". Mafia, Town, anyone. If corrupt flips town, we get very little info because there was so little to go on in the first place. I don't like voting lurkers or players who have posted very little. I think that is a waste of our day 1 lynch. I like voting for players who are just outside that category(slightly more activity), or players being active but saying little. We need to play the long term game here, no just try for an easy lynch. Also, mislynching Day 1 should NOT be demoralizing. It's day 1, mislynches happen. I go into every day 1 assuming we will mislynch, it's just too easy for mafia to redirect. However, we can still get a huge amount of info if we lynch properly(ie, don't lynch easy targets). We want to force mafia to have an opinion. Voting for a player like corrupt hardly takes an opinion at all. Makes sense? More to say, but I'll be gone for a while. | ||
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This is the kind of shit that wrecks Day 1. If you have something to say, think about it and post it, but no more one-liners. I leave for work and the thread dies... At this point I think lynching vaderseven is a bad idea. I had him written down as a person of interest, but that whole exchange did not make me think vader was scum. Palmar maybe, but not vader. I'll reread it though. Focusing on this for the remainder of the day is extremely counter-productive. Everyone slow down. | ||
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Who do you want to lynch? | ||
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On December 06 2011 01:46 annul wrote: for the love of god nobody shoot anybody on day 1. complete waste of a day vig to shoot without being sure of anything. if either of you are actually day vigs youre all fucking retarded for doing this. and since i doubt you are both this collectively stupid i have to assume this is an elaborate troll. Smart. On December 06 2011 01:42 Palmar wrote: Ok awesome. Now you have to shoot someone. May I suggest you kill Drazerk? On December 06 2011 01:47 supersoft wrote: no he doesnt. now shoot someone. if you hit scum, you live another day. Not smart On December 06 2011 03:08 Drazerk wrote: Who cares what soap flips we should be lynching both of them -.- Also not smart On December 06 2011 02:04 vaderseven wrote: I am saying there is no way to ever say he is probably town, and he wont add anything. Not really a bad reason at all. Foolish to use the shot at this point, but It's easy to see how it came about. | ||
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On December 06 2011 03:23 syllogism wrote: That post was completely worthless rad unless you think "we" have other day vigs requiring advice Gimme some time and stick around. Those were just my thoughts upon rereading. | ||
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On December 06 2011 03:20 syllogism wrote: Radfield you promised to push for a lynch today if town has no direction and that appears to be the case so far. Barring the flip revealing more information, who would be your lynch today? I'm starting to lose motivation with sandroba/palmar both being equally useless. Sandroba kind of makes sense so far but is being quite lazy, if town. Yes, lets get started. These are the players I am willing to lynch today: 1. supersoft 7. hyshes 6. Erandorr 9. Drazerk 10. Jackal58 16. kingjames01 19. Lanaia 20. Risen 24. Hier Now I realize I'm doing what I said to not do: Posting a big list of people who scum can cherry pick from. However at this point I'm willing to let scum take from this list if they want to. If anyone thinks anyone else should be on this list, i'm happy to discuss why they are not. supersoft and Drazerk I'm less sure about, so lets take them off the list for the time being. They're both active as well, so presumably they will pick it up on their own. Hyshes has a IRL excuse, so he can slide by for a day. Hier is basically inactive, so it's kinda useless to vote for him. Risen I thought looked like a particularly good lynch, though on rereading his filter I'm not so sure anymore: Filter. I'd like to check his past game(s) Every post of Lanaia makes her look like scum:Filter Also need to check her past game. Kingjames01: Upon reading his two posts, my initial thought was that he has about 2 posts to impress me, or he is looking scummy. Both posts are neutral and full of generalities, long past the time when we needed to talk in generalities. Since then he has not posted again. Pretty decent lynch in my eyes. Jackal seems to be only posting in response to players. I don't have a good read on Jackal though, so as I said, I'm not going to push it on my own. Erandorr: First post in the thread stuck out like a sore thumb to me: On December 05 2011 08:50 Erandorr wrote: Okay I just got home and I have a question for you, Rad. What are your thoughts at this point? Is there anyone that is standing out to you? No discussion, no comments on any of the current topics, just.... nothing Then calls me out, but does nothing to follow his own advice. In fact, he's doing exactly what he is accusing me of: Just asking questions of other players without giving your own reads: Okay Radfield, this is starting to give me a bad feeling....What we have right now is a very peaceful town, but not one that is looking like it is gaining a lot of information anytime soon and you are doing very little to change that.... Most recent post: + Show Spoiler + To Radfield : The reason I asked you specificly is because I noticed it and it had not been mentioned before. That in itself was my contribution at that point. That I have to comment on other players as well is a given, but that does not make my questions any less valid. I didn't only ask you, I wrote something about you specificly because that question solidified my concern, which is that you are actually more contributing than guiding, which can be a very subtle way of playing scum. I felt this was a decent response. Yet since that point he has done nothing. He agrees he needs to comment on other players, yet does not do it. Eran has done nothing but respond to me this game. I get the feeling that had I not pushed him, he probably would have said far less. Certainly not sure on this, but it's niggling me. Again, I need to do some legwork and look at past games. Thoughts anyone? Agree/Disagree? | ||
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On December 06 2011 03:35 VisceraEyes wrote: Palmar - My initial vote was an attempt to get Palmar to actually play the game with us. He's still yet to share any of his reads, has instead rolefished (yeah I said it) and trolled town for no gain. Now he's convinced our day-vig (presuming OUR day-vig...) to throw away his day-shot on someone who doesn't even look scummy. Worst part? He's absolutely unrepentant in his actions. Palmar is almost confirmed scum at this point, and if we don't lynch him today I'm gonna be pretty shitty. SCUM. Deez be mah reedz. I want to lynch Palmar. Palmar looks terrible, but I disagree with lynching him today. Palmar could easily flip town right now and I would not be surprised. Looking scummy is a viable way to survive night 1. Palmar is a good player, and has been getting shot night 1 repeatedly lately. If he is still shitting up the thread on Day 2, then yes we lynch him. I DO however agree that his play so far looks a lot like his play in LOTR(where he was third party). On December 06 2011 03:48 Drazerk wrote: What is wrong with the Palmar / V7 candidates? I strongly disagree with a V7 lynch right now. If you reread the entire scenario, it doesn't look like the actions of a mafia. It looks like the actions of a frustrated townie. Pushing votes on him right now seems smart, because his actions were foolish, but in reality I think voting V7 simply gives mafia an easy place to hide their votes. Not to mention, his reasoning behind shooting soap made sense. At no point in this game is Soap going to step up and prove he is town through his contributions(or at least it seems that way, no offence). That means he is either Scum or a liability. Was it smart to shoot? No. If you are going to shoot as town, was soap a good target? Yes. | ||
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On December 06 2011 04:25 supersoft wrote: sorry radfield, that list is horrible. I expect much more from you than listing 9 players that are lurking/trolling. For example myself. I admit, i didnt contribute anything gamedeciding so far and I even made a mistakes by creating a spam/troll atmosphere for quite a while. We maybe could have gathered more information out of the Palmar/v7 incident with a more levelheaded discussion about it. You also provide far too less reasons for the people on that list. You just throw this list at us and in the following you water down your own list. How is that useful? I also disagree about Jackal. Maybe I don't see the difference, but I don't think he's playing unusual... I'll filter your others targets now and look if there is actually something applicable among. It's Day 1, that's all I got right now. But I'm serious when I say that almost every other player I am not willing to lynch today. On some I could certainly be persuaded, but not most. I have zero solid scum reads, and tons of decent to good town reads, same as every other Day 1 town game I have ever played | ||
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On December 06 2011 05:05 Lanaia wrote: Right now, I'm going to ##vote: Palmar because I have no idea what the fuck he thinks he's doing and that feels fairly scummy to me and he seems to have known vader's role and I also don't think Drazerk is scum so I don't understand why Palmar thinks RNG is the best idea for votes. Hell, I could randomly vote on my own accord and CLAIM that it's RNG. I'm sorry, but I won't be back until after the lynch because of school (I think. Oh wait, deadline is 8pm PST? I'll be here a couple hours before then, most likely, given nothing happens on the highway). What is this reasoning? You're voting Palmar because you don't think he knows what he's doing? Really? I thought you had "come to the conclusion you can't read Palmar worth a damn", yet now all of a sudden you have a strong enough read to call scum? These next two quotes are from the same post, both regarding vader: I'm pretty sure I agree with sandroba on both counts here, but moreso on vaderseven. He has been giving me scumvibes this game. You shouldn't've shot anyone. I don't think you're scum anymore, but I think you made a terrible decision. However, what I really don't like is how Palmar seems to have known your role before you claimed. At what point in the post did your opinions change? This is a blatant flip-flop, and at this point it seems like Lanaia is just writing things to fluff out her posts: Lanaia's filter from this game: XVLIII and now compare it to her filter from XVLII: XLVII Keep in mind that Lanaia is scum in XLVII. Very similar reads in my eyes. My only problem right now is that she was agreeing with sandroba, and I am getting some scummy vibes from him too. Palmar what do you think of Sandro right now. Sandro, if this was plurality lynch who would you be pushing as an alternative to Palmar. ##Vote Lanaia | ||
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On December 06 2011 06:53 TruthBringer wrote: If Palmar really is town, then he seems to have forgotten that it is more important to help the town than to stay alive. The only justification for his odd actions so far that I can think of is that he is trying to stay alive. (Mafia think he'll be easy to hang or soon to hang, so they don't kill him.) But even if he is a really good player, keeping him alive is not worth all the harm he is doing to the town. The thing is, if Palmar is town, his play is very very strong. If he's still trolling tomorrow then we take him out. Caller did the same thing in Closed Casket and tore mafia up on Day 2: troll the entirety of day 1, then kill mafia on day 2. Either he is town and he will shape up and start making sense, or he will keep being unhelpful and we lynch him. | ||
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On December 06 2011 07:05 Lanaia wrote: I said that post was what I was feeling AS I WENT ALONG reading the 10+ pages that happened while I was asleep. Yes, there's a contradiction, but things change over the course of the game. My opinions changed with the whole vader/Palmar thing. Technically he can still be scum, but I don't think so because he'd thought he was going to be shot and thus reacted, like ANYONE would do. I'm voting Palmar because *I* don't understand what he's doing. I said that I don't know what he thinks he's doing. When a ton of shit happens, yes, opinions CAN change. I'll be back after class. Question: on TL,when a jester/VI flips, does the game end? Is the jester a solo alignment or can it be part of mafia/town? lol, you're saying that your opinion actually DID change mid-post. Fair enough I suppose Also, I'm reading your filter from PTP(townie), and it looks quite similar to this game too. Lots of "be back later"s, lots of similarities on the whole. Maybe I'm being too hasty here ##unvote | ||
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On December 06 2011 07:46 Erandorr wrote: Can we just lynch Radfield? Was that your big post you were writing up? | ||
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I think Hier is a better choice than Lanaia right now. Everyone on Lanaia should swing over and consolodate on Heir. | ||
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On December 06 2011 10:12 syllogism wrote: Palmar I don't think we can get the votes for Hier so might as well switch to Lanaia. I hope you aren't scum, but I don't even really care if you are as I'm not ever voting to lynch you day 1 based on such a weak case. No, I think Heir is better. Lets consolidate on him. The more I read Lanaia, the more she looks like town. | ||
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That being said, I stand by every post I have made this game. My goal has been to get things moving and I think i've actually done a decent job at that, in addition to moving the thread down productive avenues. Some points: * I'm not a strong Day 1 scumhunter. In fact pretty much the only time I build big day 1 cases are when I'm mafia. Other than that I built a Day 1 case on Barundar in PYPI, and was wrong. * As town I almost always have a lot of town reads, and only a few scum reads(generally do the opposite when scum) * When I quote things, I routinely remove parts of the quote that are not directly related to the point I'm making.Read any past case I have built * I have only ever been right on Day 1 once (Jackal in Merc Mini 2)The real question is: Do you agree with what I am doing right now? Consolidating a lynch on Hier, and trying to avoid a Palmar lynch? | ||
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On December 06 2011 10:29 Risen wrote: Why is everyone suddenly swapping over to a lynch on hier JUST to get a lynch in. What suddenly convinced you that oh hey, maybe Palmar isn't the guy to bandwagon, maybe we need to pile onto Hier, at least he's just a lurker and not defending himself. That's so stupid. When did we implement lynch all lurkers? Lynching scummy lurkers is kinda always the back-up plan for Majority day 1 lynches. Hier's case was extremely forced, and he has contributed nothing since then. Ideally he would not be the lynch, but it's an OK lynch nonetheless. It's better than Lanaia at this point, and miles better than Palmar. | ||
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Assuming the votes on Palmar are locked in, we need 3 of the following players to switch to Hier: Risen prplhz Mattchew Jackal58 hyshes supersoft and someone who hasn't voted, not sure who, but I only count 23 votes on the list(24 with anon) | ||
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What happened to this: On December 06 2011 06:39 redFF wrote: GODDAMN THIS PALMAR WAGON IS BAD Also: On December 06 2011 09:47 redFF wrote: i think palmar is fucking us around and is detrimental to town. plus we need a lynch. ##Vote Palmar On December 06 2011 06:41 redFF wrote: this is day 1, we need a lynch of some sort. At this point you surely recognize Palmar is not getting 13 votes today. Hier, with your switch, almost certainly will. | ||
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On December 06 2011 10:43 prplhz wrote: @Radfield Why did you change your mind on the Lanaia lynch? She didn't post a single thing and neither did Hier, but for some reason you suddenly decided that Hier was better lynch than Lanaia. She did post in that time, and explained that she DID in fact change her mind during the writing of that post. More importantly though I read over her filter from PTP where she was vanilla town. It looks a lot like her play this game, and I think I was more hung up on her style than anything else. Most of my suspicions were based on the posting similarities to XLVII, but basically her filter from both a previous scum game and previous town game look quite similar on the surface. To tell the truth I was surprised to see so many games from her. | ||
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On December 06 2011 10:50 Jackal58 wrote: I am totally torn on Palmar. The only game I really believed him to be town (Except when we were Romeo and Juliet together) he was scum. That was the game Ace ran. I don't remember the name of it. All I remember is I made an ass out of myself trusting Palmar and cost town the game. That said I have been on the receiving end of his bullying when he was town. That's the Palmar I see this game to this point. But then he posted his role. That is a scum role. Don't care what you say Syllo. So ya I don't know what to make of Palmar at this point. I think I'd rather see him alive than dead at the end of the day. My problem with agreeing with you at this point is I really do think you're scum Rad. It's not a question of whether or not you're any good at finding scum on day 1. It's the way you've acted throughout the day. God knows I suck at finding scum day 1 too. But I haven't been all over the board like you have. I'll need to think about moving my vote to Heir. I'd much rather everybody voted for you but I don't see that happening at this point. Have I really been all over the board? I'll admit I skim-read your case against me, but I just don't see how you can think what I've been doing so far has mafia motives? Unless your simply stating that my mafia motive is to blend in, but in that case I would be posting way way less. Go look at any game I have played as scum, and count how many posts I have in day 1. I bet I have at least double the posts so far than any scum game I have ever played. Scum = lurkish, with some directing, and a few cases + lotsa scum reads. Town = open, conversational, poking and prodding, commenting, keeping town discussion flowing, leading and consolidating lynches. The game was Some Mafia Game, and as I recall the reason you trusted Palmar was due to the fact that you checked him N1 as Parity Cop, NOT due to his play. You even posted how it was just too unlikely that your first check would hit the godfather(or framed mafia in that case). | ||
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(like requesting an RPG and BP vest in my first post in Merc Mini).I can see where you're coming from on the planting seeds. Rest assured though I will be building proper cases on people. I will make you a deal. If I am still alive after night 2, and you still think I am scum you can push me all you want. Until then give me some room to work and see what I can do(and I will do the same for you). Deal? | ||
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On December 06 2011 11:23 prplhz wrote: I don't think Refallen is scum and this is a weird time to try to get people to change to him, but ultimately it appears that it is more kingjames01 trying to justify that he's not voting Hier or something. That's the conclusion anyway. Agreed. Refallen looks more like a new player who is trying to work things out. I don't see much fear in his posts, and it looks like he is genuinely trying. I don't really get that entire case. On December 06 2011 11:26 prplhz wrote: @Radfield Stop trying to make stupid deals. Deal? | ||
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On December 06 2011 11:29 Soap wrote: LOL, sucks to be bastard modded out of the game but I do appreciate the irony. Have a nice game folks. lol. And with that I'm off to bed! | ||
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Vaderseven is a JOAT Drazerk is an unblockable medic This means that scum almost assuredly have a roleblocker, which means v7 is almost assuredly going to get roleblocked tonight. Vader, I assume you can self protect and you certainly should tonight. One of two things will happen, you will get roleblocked(and not shot), or you will get shot(and not roleblocked). Either way it makes sense to use your self-protect, assuming that you don't lose it if you are roleblocked. For this reason, it is imperative that any Watcher we have target vaderseven. The chances of him getting visited by mafia is almost 100%. Next question: Should Drazerk be protecting v7? This one I don't know the answer to, but I think it makes sense to leave v7 to the watcher(if we have one) and instead focus on protecting townies likely to die. Also, I still see plenty of doubt regarding v7's alignment, so maybe mafia will see the optimal move as roleblock but don't kill. It leaves him alive to draw suspicion, and makes his JOAT claim seem bunk. Chances of death tonight: Toadesstern: Extremely high. He's very obviously green at this point, contributing, and not high profile enough to draw medic protection. I would shoot him if I was scum. Radfield: Very high Syllogism: Very high. Both myself and syllo are active and playing decently hard this game. Definite threat to mafia and worth a shot. Drazerk: Pretty good assuming he is town. His play is very null for me so far, but simply by virtue of his claim he is an obvious threat to mafia. However, mafia killing him cleans up the thread a bit. Annul: Decent. He is active and aggressive, and painting himself pretty green. That being said his style is not particularly conducive to a great town atmosphere, so killing him is not super ideal for mafia. Palmar: Low. Despite the fact that Palmar is extremely solid as town, killing him right now brings a lot of clarity into the thread, and allows the players who think he is scummy to galvanize their attention elsewhere. Sandroba Extremely low. Mafia killing him is a blessing for town right now, as his play is putting him as a huge question mark and day 2 lynch target. If you are a medic, I highly suggest you consider protecting Toad, myself, syllo or drazerk(maybe annul). Drazerk, I think you should consider those players as well as v7. The chances of a framer being in this game are extremely high in my eyes. Hence I will not be making suggestions on who to investigate. + Show Spoiler + Chances of a third party are also quite high given that Incog did not give us townie numbers, and only gave us mafia numbers. That means 2 KP for scum, +1 KP for a third party. Makes perfect sense to give mafia number a bit of a boost(due to the low KP), and also makes sense to give town a floridian(due to the lower than usual town voting power(18 town vs 7 non-town at outset) However this is all just irrelevant conjecture But it does seem to fit nicely. | ||
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On December 07 2011 11:16 prplhz wrote: @Radfield Where would you put Jackal58 and redFF on that medic protect list? Why do you think mafia would block vaderseven, do you think he might have two shots, one for day and one for night? Doesn't that seem a little over powered? I would imagine he has an investigation, a medic ability, a vig shot(day) and a self protect(veteran) ability. He may not have all of those, and he may have something different instead, but he certainly has more powers beyond 1 day vig. Jack = JOAT and JOAT = Jack. No way that Incog named a day vig 'Jack' randomly. Jackal I am torn on. His posting seems reasonable, but that is partly why I suspect him. I feel like he is normally far more aggro and pushing people on day 1. The only other game I played with him where he was scum he came across as polite and helpful Day 1. It's nothing concrete, and I'm feeling more town on him than I was earlier. However I have a difficult time judging people when they accuse me of being scum. His case on me also feels genuine. Either way, if he was shot tonight I would not be particularly miffed. RedFF: I'm less sure of redFF being town than I was earlier. If mafia want to take a shot at him they can be my guest. I feel like red needs to realign his scum metrics because he often jumps on people for things I perceive as null tells. He is also difficult to pick out as scum do to his spammy nature as town or scum. Again, not too worried if he gets sniped tonight. Both of those hits are pretty non-optimal for scum in my eyes. | ||
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On December 07 2011 11:36 vaderseven wrote: I never claimed JOAT. Unfortunately when you claimed your role was called 'Jack', you did in fact claim JOAT. On this forum, those two words are almost interchangable. From PYPI, which Incog hosted: Jack - Of all trades, master of none. You may use up to six abilities from other roles in the game however you are restricted to the very same rules that apply to them when you use them. You may not use the same role in two consecutive day/night cycles in a row. The following roles you may use are: Vigilante, Day Vigilante, Detective, Medic, and Bulletproof. You may not use two in one cycle (ie: Detective during day, Medic during night). If you use the veteran one night and take a hit, you cannot use it again and absorb another hit. It is a one time only deal. | ||
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Draz, I think you should be protecting v7 tonight. If he dies, it's on you. | ||
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I think this is Incogs version of a JOAT that we are looking at, and I bet it is extremely similar to the role description I posted. As an aside Red, your previous filter page has 17 1-liner posts, and three 2 or 3 line posts. I think you are in danger of getting modkilled by Incog if you keep spamming. | ||
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On December 07 2011 11:46 Toadesstern wrote: If what you quoted is right I want a medic on V7 ASAP instead of the watcher. I'm going to highlight the important part right now If what I highlighted is true there is NO WAY mafia will roleblock him. V7 already shot so according to your link he can't do a thing this night which makes a RB useless. So imo he's going to die withouta medic protection. I fully agree. I only noticed it after I posted that description from PYPI: On December 07 2011 11:42 Radfield wrote: Actually, reading over that description I just realized you cannot self protect tonight, because you used your dayvig today. Draz, I think you should be protecting v7 tonight. If he dies, it's on you. | ||
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On December 07 2011 12:03 VisceraEyes wrote: THANK you! A little WIFOM goes a long way, but literally demanding protection for someone? This goes for you too Rad. If Draz' claim can be believed, I agree that v7 is a good target, but I think any of the others you named would be good targets too. Just sayin. A stopped kill is a stopped kill. PRs are helpful, but warm bodies will help us win the game in the end FAR more than 1 PR ever could. My two cents. I know what you mean, and if you look at my original post it was telling draz that he should think about protecting v7. My thinking is that if Draz IS scum, then that gives him a free pass. In fact, the desire to have draz definitely protect v7 comes from a place of thinking Draz may be scum. But his claim makes zero sense from a scum perspective. I'm of the opinion that scum act in their own best interests 9 times out of 10, and that claim is a terrible move for a scum to make for a number of different reasons. Hence, I doubt Draz is scum, so yeah, he can WIFOM it around a bit. I just hate to see our JOAT die without a fight. | ||
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On December 06 2011 00:17 prplhz wrote: I think TruthBringer and vaderseven are best lynch candidates for today. I will vote TruthBringer over vaderseven because I think he's more likely to flip scum. I don't like lynching Zephirdd or Corrupt. I think Palmar has been uncharacteristically useless so far but I wouldn't consider him for day1 lynch. sandroba and syllogism are basically confirmed to me and I think that Radfield is looking good too. @supersoft What do you think about my case on TruthBringer? You commented on one case on TruthBringer but not the other. prp, I missed this earlier on, but what makes(or made) Sandroba seem 'basically confirmed' to you? Do you still think Lanaia is scum? This quote seems to indicate that you think she is just an unhelpful townie: @Lanaia You too are not really being very helpful. You haven't done anything that resembles scum hunting this game, when can we expect something from you? What do you mean that talking during night just kind of paints targets (or anti-targets) everywhere? Do you think town should just be quiet during the night? Do you still think vaderseven is scum? | ||
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Holy Scum-Claim Batman! Not really, but really, let's think a minute. Clearly Palmar's role is legit. He claimed Floridian, an extra vote appeared on Hier just as he said it would. Here's what gets me though. If it were a town-aligned role, why would the vote show up as "Anonymous" rather than have his name on it? "HERP VE so he can use it without claiming! DERP" Riiiight...except, why would a town-aligned player need to do that? Why would a town-aligned player even use that role? It's been said already, but I'd like to reitterate that normally vote-rigging roles are scum roles. They just make more sense as scum roles. Therefor, I believe Palmar's role-claim. I think he's a scum Floridian. Do you really think that it's likely mafia have an extra hidden vote, in a game where their numbers are ALREADY stacked in the wrond direction? 6 vs 19 already starts them on the high side of voting power, 7 vs 19 is simply excessive. If you think about it, it makes perfect sense for town to have a floridian role to balance out the voting power. Also, stop calling it a vote-rigging role. Yes, vote rigging roles are typically mafia, but floridian is NOT a vote rigging role, it is simply an extra vote. The fact that Palmar told us about the vote speaks volumes about his alignment as well. Having an 'anonymous' vote come up on the list has the potential to throw town into more chaos. Telling us about it removes any kind of danger with it, as Palmar is now forced to be accountable. Palmar, I don't think it all that heinously unlikely a town medic would target annul. However, 2 people claiming roleblock seems too high, which makes me think we might have a jailkeeper. But of course if we have a jailkeeper we don't have 2 medics. More importantly, does Annul look like scum? I honestly can't tell. I can certainly see a lot of mafia motivation in his posts and actions(jumping on Palmar, casting suspicion on me multiple times, thinking Soap was red and then getting super upset when he died), but his tone looks genuine. | ||
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On December 07 2011 20:02 Palmar wrote: No, my point is that barring further evidence, I have a reason to believe annul was protected by a scumdoc. The reason I'm being ambiguous is that apparently when I'm straight to the point people panic and shoot townies. I don't think a medic did a bad job. I don't think any town medic who actually read the interchange between syllogism and annul during the night would even consider protecting annul. My point is that I think annul is mafia. I feel like going down this route is going force a second medic into the open. Do you think annul would claim medic save if he took a hit as scum? I'm not 100% his claim is legit, but I certainly don't feel there is enough against him to assume it is definitely bullshit. | ||
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On December 07 2011 12:14 Radfield wrote: prp, I missed this earlier on, but what makes(or made) Sandroba seem 'basically confirmed' to you? Do you still think Lanaia is scum? This quote seems to indicate that you think she is just an unhelpful townie: Do you still think vaderseven is scum? | ||
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My initial thought was either a town roleblocker or jailer, because it seems very strange for mafia to perform a roleblock and counterclaim it. Which in turns probably means that both claims are genuine, but it says very little about their alignment. Agreed, though claiming a roleblock is certainly not outside the realm of possibility for scum, especially if they used a rb on super or syllo. That is pretty much the only scenario I see scum claiming a roleblock. Assuming everyone is telling the truth today, it means we have a likely 2nd medic, jailkeeper and mafia roleblocker. I'm not really sure why a jailkeeper would target red or erandorr though. On December 07 2011 14:44 Erandorr wrote: I was roleblocked, too. Can anyone explain how that fits with the block Red claimed? Is this the sum total of your thoughts right now? How do YOU think it fits with the block red claimed? | ||
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On December 07 2011 21:26 redFF wrote: Palmar's defense of himself doesn't even address the points made against him. His defense basically consists of calling everyone who votes him bad while falling back on a dead confirmed town not thinking he was mafia. Except syllo never said palmar wasn't scum, the closest he came to talking about palmar's alignment was "i hope you're not mafia" or something like that. Palmar's mentioning of how all the good players stayed away from his wagon day 1 serves to make any of the newer players stay away from voting him because it would make them "bad". dude has done no scumhunting and has been attempting to fuck up any pro-town atmosphere we try to create. ##Vote Palmar sorry if I'm terrible. How does the floridian role fit into your assessment red? Do you really think that in a game where mafia numbers are already inflated, mafia would also have an extra hidden vote? | ||
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That does NOT make Annul scum.... I have my own problems with annul so far, but none of them make me think he is the best lynch today. I would much rather lynch someone like prp, sandro or kingjames. What makes you so sure Annul is scum Palmar? What do you think of prp right now? | ||
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On December 08 2011 01:25 Mattchew wrote: I post a whole list of scum reads and noone comments.. idk why I bother only to be called out for not contributing later... and then having stretched cases made against me by anyone that I disagree with That's because there is already a ongoing discussion topic which you only touched on a little bit. I agree that Erandorr looks like scum right now. I disagree with redff, he spams and posts 1 liners every game regardless of alignment. In his case, it is not a scum tell. Both Erandorr and RedFF claimed roleblocked, but that does not mean they necessarily have a role. Oftentimes in games you are informed you were roleblocked even if you are vanilla town. The chances of v7 and Palmar being both scum is astronomically low in my eyes. Not only do BOTH of them seem like townies, and BOTH have claimed likely town roles, but there is very little chance that the conversation between them was manufactured. | ||
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On December 07 2011 23:15 Toadesstern wrote: Radfield already mentioned the Chances of a Mafia visit on V7 are like 99%. Do you really think mafia let's a claimed blue role that has already proven that he's not bullshitting alive? Once it became apparent that v7 could NOT use night powers last night, that chance of a visit went down by a ton. No point in them roleblocking someone who cannot use their powers. That only leaves them WIFOMing on hitting him or not and whether or not they think Draz would protect him. | ||
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On December 08 2011 02:01 Mattchew wrote: I think that it would have been more productive to let them answer the question of what role they are. You have now given both of them an easy out and although it was probably going to be their answers, you have now essentially limited information we could be recieving. Also, Palmar and V7 were both in the last game and Palmar was involved firsthand in the Palmar vs. Ace vs. BC in which they were all town. It would be ingenius but not out of the question for them to stage a similar occurence this game. We do not need to know their roles. Town roles are best hidden, but it is entirely appropriate for them to claim the were roleblocked. On December 08 2011 02:09 Erandorr wrote: Interesting. Would you mind explaining why us telling you our roles is pro-town? If you are town erandorr, I urge you to start contributing more content. You are obviously around, yet doing very very little. On December 08 2011 02:06 prplhz wrote: @Radfield I'm not a big fan of you calling me "prp" it kinda reminds me of "perpetrator", can't you call me "prpl" or "prplhz" instead? I call you Radfield all the time. Can you outline for me what is bothering you about me? I can see how you might have a problem with the two other people on that list, though I don't think either of them is a better lynch than annul at all. I'd like to stop you from writing a huge accusation on me because I doubt I'm getting lynched today and I wouldn't want you to waste time on a big post on me. I have never considered that you didn't like prp. Sorry about that, and I'm happy to use your full name I'll post what I have written on you so far, and quickly finish it off: OK, I think prplhz is scum. Before getting into specifics of this game, I want to talk a bit about prplhz's style and general posting habits. A town aligned prplhz is what I would call a highly aggressive player. He calls people out, calls people names, is not afraid of going after big names, and has a good sense of what tells are null. An example of Mini Mafia X(prplhz is Vanilla townie): Are you fucking kidding me? That's stupid. Then tell me why you think Palmar's plan to lynch wherebugsgo on day1 is good. I am really interested in that. You guys all suck. jaybrundage has a valid excuse but people like Mr. Wiggles and Palmar don't. Stop being derps. Yea hiro protagonist is scum He then proceeds to push hiro protagonist strongly, while at the same time pressuring several other players. He is confident, assertive and unafraid to get on someones bad side. He is also not afraid to call vets scum if he sees it. In LOTR you went after DocHelvetica on day 1, in MMX he pushed WBG without support for 3 solid days. He did not build a proper case in either instance, but simply pushed them as scum. Now lets talk about prplhz's scum play, because I think it's actually pretty decent. However, I would characterize it as being safe, helpful, generally 1 big case, and a very different tone. I would grab some game quotes here, but I'm just not going to have the time today. You'll have to take my word for it. Check out PYPInteresting specifically though What makes prplhz scum this game: He is consistently jumping on people for small things and small tells, and NOT pressuring in the way I would expect. First his vote on Truthbringer. Now, truthbringer said some outrageously anti-town things, and really 'new player' things as well. However, prplhz's entire argument is weak and he should know it. Saying dumb things does NOT make someone scum, and oftentimes is more of a townie tell. I would typically expect prplhz to call him on it and let it pass. He does no such thing though, and argues several times that Truthbringer is actually scum. Yet, and this is a big yet, there is absolutely no conviction there. Also, you proclaim your worthlessness lowering everybody's expectations of you. You can absolutely catch a scum even if you don't have any extensive meta with him/her (I think I just proved that). At the very least YOU CAN TRY, unless you don't want to but in that case you're scum and you can just die. ^Kinda indicates Truth is scum, but waffles a bit What motivation could there be for a townie to propose a no-lynch this early on day1 in a closed setup? Do you think TruthBringer is bad enough not to be able to figure this out himself? ^Indicates Truth is probably scum, ie "what motivation could there be for a townie...." The scum motivation is to push anti-town agenda. This is obviously not a team effort. What makes me jump on TruthBringer is that he apparently played before so he should be smarter than this. I find it very hard to speculate about closed setups but he does that and he talks about zodiac lists in a very confident manner that makes me think he is good at mafia, and then he proposes a very anti-town plan at a very bad time. ^Seems to indicate Truth is definitely scum Yet after all that he finishes pretty soft(quote below) and his tone indicates(at least to me) that he doesn't actually think Truth is scum. I'm not saying that you can pick out scum just based on what they write in the thread, I'm saying that it is possible and that it is in the best interest of town that everybody gives it a try. I don't have any experience with you, but what you say is still anti-town and that makes me very suspicious of you when I think you should know better. Why are you proposing that we are both good guys? What do you think of me and my alignment? I'm not saying that it's always a good idea to hang people on day1, I'm saying that it's always bad idea to drop the idea of a lynch early on day1. Can I ask, when you played before did towns often rely on power roles instead of analysis? Later on, he posts basically his last comment to truthbringer, and last mention of him at all outside of "I still think truthbringer is scummy" @TruthBringer You said that "Sometimes it's better doing nothing than something." what makes you think that it is better to do nothing than it is to do something in the situation we are in right now? Do you think, right now, that no-lynch is a better option than lynching somebody? If you had to lynch somebody right now who would it be and why? What kind of information do you think we'd have day2 that we wouldn't have day1 if we didn't lynch? Do you think the only thing to gain from a lynch is a flip and a vote list? Why don't you think you can read any of us? Is it because you don't know how we usually play or is it because you haven't played mafia for a while and you don't feel confident about your abilities right now? You also never answered my question; when you played before, did town often rely on power roles instead of analysis? ^Again, this is not the tone that prplhz takes with people he thinks are scum. He pushes them aggressively, not softballing them questions. Questions which Truth never answers and prplhz never follows up on. Since then prplhz has completely let truth off the hook. Next: vaderseven On December 06 2011 02:04 prplhz wrote: This is all stupid, and extraordinarily rash by vaderseven. ##Unvote TruthBringer ##Vote vaderseven Why are you just trolling the thread and then forcing people to do stupid shit like this Palmar? Votes vaderseven for being "stupid and extraordinarily rash". Extraordinarly rash? Really? My thinking is that if you actually thought vaderseven was mafia, you would absolutely NOT characterize his play as extraordinarily rash. You would characterize it as opportunistic or perhaps panicky, but not rash. Rash is very much a townie trait. Notice also that prplhz accuses Palmar of forcing people to do stupid shit. If prplhz ACTUALLY thought vaderseven was scum because of this exchange, then he should be applauding Palmar for outting a scum, NOT chiding him. You absolutely cannot have it both ways. Either vader is scummy and it was a great play by Palmar to out him, or vader is town and is was stupid of Palmar to force the issue. This shows a solidly scum mindset. Accuse vader of being scum for acting stupidly, accuse Palmar of bad play for forcing the issue. prplhz KNOWS that both are town, and lets neither of them off the hook. Prp mentions vader again Here, but I don't have much to say about it. I think he is deliberately refusing to see things from vaders point of view, and nitpicking the way the situation went down, instead of looking at it in whole form. Where would you put Jackal58 and redFF on that medic protect list? Why do you think mafia would block vaderseven, do you think he might have two shots, one for day and one for night? Doesn't that seem a little over powered? ^Doesn't seem to doubt vader's claim here, yet if prplhz really thinks vaderseven is scum, it means he thinks vader is absolutely lying about his Jack claim. Yet prplhz has never even mentioned the possibility. It seems to me that prplhz is sticking with vader for lack of a better target, and refusing to assimilate the additional info that indicates vader is town. Prplhz is simply sticking with the sentiment because it is thread accepted to do so. Next: Hier vote I'm voting Hier if Lanaia isn't getting lynched and Palmar is in danger, but she's a better lynch. I feel the same way about Hier as sandroba does, it's bothersome trying to defend a guy who doesn't give a shit himself. I get a slight townie feel about him even though I agree that his case is terrible and looks a bit forced, but townies who want to contribute but have a hard time will force themselves to do silly analysis too. His analysis in XLVII was also on prominent townies (Palmar/wherebugsgo/BloodyC0bbler) and that fits this pattern. But he is more likely to be scum than Palmar right now, and he is certainly not going to be as useful for town when he doesn't post anything. Not once not twice but three times prplhz indicates that he thinks Hier could be town. However he couches that in three instances of reasons to vote him. Classic scum vote post. Plenty of outs, plenty of ass-covering, no willingness to straight-up accept the mislynch. Next: Mattchew case I find this an exceptionally weak case prplhz builds on Mattchew. It picks up every null tell and newbie town tell that Mattchew has made. Prplhz knows better than this. He even prefaces his entire argument with stating he sucks at making strong arguments: Hey, I've decided to try my hand at some case writing even though I haven't done this successfully for god knows how long. He also makes a very similarly weak case(but long winded) on Foolishness in PYPI(when prplhz is red). I could talk more about this but I'm not going to. Next: Annul vote Gonna cut things short here. Spends two or three posts defending annul and states several times he does not think he is scum. As the bandwagon builds he is suddenly swayed by Sandroba bunk post: I honestly thought he was joking at first, but it appears he was serious. At this point I'm fairly confident prplhz is scum. ##Vote prplhz | ||
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On December 08 2011 03:55 Palmar wrote: Radfield! So it's you! I'm surprised, your day 1 play was actually quite solid. Alas no, I wish I could play that well as scum Day 1 I agree with you that annul was most likely shot by syllo, I don't see how that has much bearing on him being scum. There are other reasons he may be scum, but you're not offering any of them. If annul was NOT shot last night by syllo, would you still be wanting him lynched? Did you actually read the case on prplhz? I feel it's decently strong for an early Day 2 case. Read it again, where am I wrong? How did this game jive with prplhz's standard town play? | ||
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On December 08 2011 04:59 Radfield wrote: If annul was NOT shot last night by syllo, would you still be wanting him lynched? EBWOP: If annul was NOT shot last night(ie, did not claim a hit), would you still be wanting him lynched? | ||
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On December 08 2011 05:41 Erandorr wrote: Give me one good reason why any town Medic would rather protect you than syllo. Anyone not familiar with syllo's prior play would NOT protect him at night. Town medics protect players they shouldn't all the time. Sandro and Palmar, your entire case is based on the fact that you don't think a town medic would protect annul. That's garbage. You both know that townies do dumb things with their power roles, not to mention protecting annul was not even that dumb. As I mentioned before the flip, annul had a decent chance of getting shot last night. Annul was just barely on the town side of null for me at the end of N1, and he is still there now. | ||
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On December 08 2011 06:08 VisceraEyes wrote: Radfield, if you had to lynch one of Palmar or Sandroba, which would it be and why? Sandro 10 times out of 10. I think Palmar is town, I think Sandro is somewhat scummy right now. However, on rereading his filter he looks better than I had thought. A few thoughts: * His early game felt forced * He was one of the people who tried to make both Palmar and vaderseven look scummy after the dayvig exchange Other than that it's simply that he hasn't contributed much. Sandro wrote: Annul is playing very simillar to what he did day1 in the last game, which made me suspicious of him. However he did shape up day 2 and I was able to correctly identify him as town that game. I'll reserve judgement to tomorrow if I'm alive, if not it's up to you bastards to decide. @Annul Can you please point me to a game where you lasted a bit as scum, I'm in a mood to read right now. What can you tell me about your read of annul's last scum game? Was it similar to this game or XLVII? You state annul was very similar to a previous game where he was town, does that still hold? If he hadn't claimed a hit today would you still think him very scummy and worth a lynch? | ||
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On December 08 2011 06:16 Erandorr wrote: Hey Radfield : What the fuck? Not sure what you're getting at... All four of those statement jive. Annul has done several things this game to make me give him scum points, however on the whole he falls just on the town side of null. Had he not done any of those things I would have a very solid town read on him. All those quotes show is that I am willing to give my reads and work them out in thread. There ARE things annul has done that you could show as scummy, however no one willing to lynch him has actually done that. If you TRULY believe annul is scum, then it should be easy to go through his posts and find more evidence, it's always easy to see it once you know for sure. However not one single person on the wagon has done that, not to mention I think there is a decent bit of scum on the wagon(yourself included) | ||
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On December 08 2011 06:45 Erandorr wrote: Hey Radfield, could you explain that rather weird stance on annul you seem to have? Look at the quotes I took from your posts. You said that there are other reasons why annul could be scum, that you had your own reasons to doubt his townieness and then you come out and tell us you still lean town towards him. Why did you never specify what concerns you seem to have with annul and where did that apparant change of mind come from. It is a big step from "not the best lynch" to "leaning town" without a real explanation I assume I answered this as well in my last post. Yes I have reasons to doubt his townieness, yes I am leaning slight town on him... those two statements are not contradictory. The obvious missing statement is that I also have reasons to believe his townieness. @Toadesstern, I am willing to move on Erandorr as well. Add in to your case that his last game as town, Mini Mafia X, he was very solid Day 1. The most solid I've seen him play. @prplhz, you have some decent points there, and I'm going to respond more in detail, but my case is most certainly not about you swearing or not. I'm talking about aggression and tone, and that does not just mean a pottymouth. | ||
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On December 08 2011 07:21 Palmar wrote: I'm surprised radfield, as I feel prplhz is doing a better job at looking town than I've seen before. I also felt prplhz was looking townie halfway through yesterday, but his actions are against him. Truthbringer was over-the-top scummy with his first posts, which is very very rarely a scum trait. Since that I feel he has been decent. vaderseven is almost surely town. He might be my strongest town read. The fact that prplhz is still pushing for lynching him seems like he's not even paying attention. If he's a jack he is town, if he's a jack he can prove his role. Add to that his posting is very green, and you have someone not worth looking at for a long time. If he is miraculously still around on day 4/5 after having done nothing for town, then yeah, but not until then. The case on Mattchew was pretty thin in my eyes, though to be honest I skim-read it. I had mattchew down as prob town. However, I just re-read his filter and it looks worse than I recall. In particular his posts after getting called out. There are definitely mafia motives with posts like these: On December 08 2011 00:26 Mattchew wrote: your making it extremely hard even though I agree votes should be on annul until someone steps up and claims they protected him On December 08 2011 01:39 Mattchew wrote:(Both sentences in this quote) I am slowly becoming more and more ok with lynching Palmar, and if he flips red following with the lynching V7. Red and Eran still waiting on the roles you claim to be blocked from doing... One of them could be mafia and had their KP blocked He also made the worlds shortest 'case' against erandorr. That being said I'm not real sure he is scum, but he certainly reads less green than I thought. So where does that leave me on prplhz you ask? I'm not really sure. His defense was decent: truthbringer IS less of a raw newb than I realized, PYPI was multi scum teams so is moot, my points about tone are pretty weak. But his reaction to the v7 vig shot, his justification of finding v7 scummy, and his semi flip-flop on annul rub me very much the wrong way. I'm not really sure which way to take it from here. | ||
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On December 08 2011 08:34 redFF wrote: radfield what do you think about palmar? I think he is probably town. Floridian makes a huge amount of sense to be in town hands, and he most certainly is the floridian. It makes almost zero sense to be in scum hands, because that is balancing the game in the wrong direction. I also do not see scum motivation in his Day 1 posting. I really liked his Dayvig gambit, and(like him) I was laughing as I was reading the thread, even when I saw the kill posted and realized the thread was going to turn into a shitshow, I still thought it was funny. I very much see Palmar as town all the way through the second half of Day 1. I have a lot of respect for Palmar's scum play, but he is a solid town read at this point. What I have a problem with Palmar, and this is addressed to you, is that I have very little inkling of your reads right now. You are pushing annul, but without using any actual arguments. Do you even care if he gets lynched? I honestly feel like I could make a better case for annul being scum then you have. Who else is clogging up your scumdar other than annul? I would very much like the Palmar lynch idea to go away. It is hugely detrimental to town, and based solely off the fact that Palmar played a very non-standard Day 1 (though not a scummy one by any means). It's also a very safe place for mafia to hide, as one hardly even needs a reason to vote Palmar at this point. | ||
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On December 08 2011 09:11 prplhz wrote: @Radfield My main point about vaderseven is that he shot Soap. Since sandroba and Palmar pointed out that you're probably scum you have dropped your "please let me do nothing until night2"-idea and tried to appear a lot more helpful, so maybe you can tell me why vaderseven shot Soap? Can you also tell me about your other scum reads besides me? I think townie Radfield at this point would have like the entire scum team mapped out but you have one non-scum in me and then you have Erandorr who I don't have a clear read on right now but I think he's town. You're wrong, you find me a game where I had multiple scum reads on Day 2, and I guarantee you will find a game where I was scum. I don't generally get strong scum reads early on. Look at my play in PYPInsane, or PYP2 my reads almost always only galvanize around night 2. I work by finding townies, eliminating the null reads, and working down from there. I'm willing to admit thought that I don't have a lot of clarity right now though. I need to spend less time IN the thread, and more time OUT of the thread(read/filter more, post/reply less), which is why I'm currently re-reading the thread(which is moving quite a bit faster than it should). Solid Town Palmar vaderseven Zephirdd Toadesstern Maybe Town Drazerk Truthbringer Visceraeyes Annul RedFF Lanaia? Risen? Refallen? Prob Scum kingjames01 Erandorr Sandro? Hyshes? prplhz? That is loosely what I'm looking at right now. | ||
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On December 08 2011 09:34 vaderseven wrote: VEyes, dont unvote him if you think he is scum. We gotta break that pattern now. vader, I think you are town, but I think you are very much off base on Palmar. If Palmar did not exist, who else would you be gunning for today? | ||
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There are legions of townies who 'get a bad feeling' about me between the end of day one and end of day two when I am town. It honestly happens every single game to me. Someone should figure out why and tell me so I can fix it You are on the Solid Town list for a very specific reason. I'm not going to go into it deeper than that. All the other people missing from those three lists are pretty null. I either haven't relooked over them, they are very inactive, or I simply don't have a great read. I will also add that hyshes probably doesn't belong on my prob scum list, he is much more null at this point. Also keep in mind that the Drazerk claim of a roleblock immune medic who has to claim night 1 is a joke. It's either a joke by Incog, or a joke by Drazerk. In LOTR Drazerk claimed medic during Day 2 for no apparent reason and actually managed to stay alive until the end of the game, and I think he even made a save. On December 08 2011 11:54 prplhz wrote: @Zephirdd You're not off about Radfield's list, it is weird because he is likely scum and you're very likely town. You're not wrong about how very specific speculation about setup/roles can't be effectively relied upon in a closed setup. I don't think it is likely that Drazerk is scum, we can only speculate about why scum did not kill him. My theory is that they wanted to isolate Palmar and lynch him today so they took away two of his biggest supporters. If you see a problem with my list then let me hear it. Don't just snipe. I hope you realize I am also one of strongest voices in the thread against a Palmar lynch? Problem is I don't like annul either, and I don't have a good fallback target since I'm leaning more and more town on you. I will say this, I'm willing to lynch sandro if he doesn't start being more useful. He has almost zero contribution at this point, when he should be starting to pinpoint scum. | ||
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On December 08 2011 12:10 Zephirdd wrote: So yeah, no point in speculating that. I don't know how to avoid these WIFOM circles, so I'll just assume that Palmar is town for the time being. There is a very easy way to avoid the WIFOM circles. 9 out of 10 times mafia act in their own best interest. Yes there is the occasional bus, and yes there is the occasional false roleclaim, but they are the exception. Ideally you learn to pick out those exceptions, but if you simply ask yourself "would it be advantageous to do this as mafia" then you will be right far more often than you are wrong. No need for WIFOM. However, Palmar, of all the players I have seen play is more than willing to break that rule(cop claim in SMG as scum????). I don't think that is what he is doing here though. I can see why redFF might jump to that conclusion though. | ||
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On December 08 2011 12:27 redFF wrote: scumteam atm is palmar, prplhz, zephirdd mattchew and then someone else i dunno maybe rad? ![[image loading]](http://i54.tinypic.com/dwdv1x.jpg) | ||
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On December 08 2011 23:37 annul wrote: now i have a final exam in 27 minutes, so im going to eat my food and get to school. but seriously palmar give it up Do you think Palmar is still scum annul? If not him then who? Who else do you think is scummy, who should be our lynch today? @Palmar, that's a much better case, and one I can get behind. Originally I felt his 'blueslip' catch made him seem townie in origin, not so sure now though. The fact that he came into the thread and asked for a recap is generally not something mafia would do. However this is very much true: Now, please recheck annul's filter ( here ) and scroll down to where he votes me. Notice how sharply his contribution rate has fallen. Not only that, but there is also NO effort at scumhunting at all. He literally hasn't accused anyone of anything since he decided I was red. There is no substance. I think the closest thing was calling Jackal a moron. His claim of being hit also struck me as genuine: On December 07 2011 14:38 annul wrote: apparently someone shot me but it was negated somehow On December 07 2011 14:41 annul wrote: i just asked and was told someone medic'd me. <3. ok so reds have 3 kp then On December 08 2011 01:23 annul wrote: wbg: "you took a hit tonight" me: "does this mean a medic saved me?" wbg: "yes" But looking at it again reminds me of how I felt taking a hit as third party in PYP1. In general when you take a hit, you DO NOT claim how(vet or medic) but simply just let the thread know you took a hit. However when you take a hit as mafia(saved by town) you immediately claim the medic save, RoL in Closed Casket did the exact same thing. Why? Because being saved by a town medic buys you townie credit. He also very quickly agreed to the idea that mafia did not hit him, but syllo did. Maybe that's because the evidence is decent, but if syllo was suspicious of me during the night and I took a hit I would not immediately accept that syllo must have shot me. ##Vote: Annul On December 08 2011 23:59 Jackal58 wrote: Hi Radfield. Could you answer a couple of questions for me? 1. Why did you omit me from your list? You were suspicious of me on day 1. Did you leave me off just to give me a warm fuzzy feeling about you? 2. You have Annul on your "maybe town" section but two posts later you don't like him. Which is it? 3. You have prplhz on your "prob scum" section but again 2 posts later you're leaning more and more town on him. Part of your analysis on him previously was his vote on Annul. So are you flip flopping Annul and Prplhz on your list? If so why such a rapid change of opinion? These appear to be contradictions to me. A wee bit of waffling. Could you help me try to understand where you are coming from? Yep, reads change. As I said, I'm warming up on prplhz, and as should have been obvious from my posting, I had conflicting thoughts on annul. That's why they were both question marks. You completely disappeared, and have basically been inactive this entire game. Other than the slight pressure I've tossed your way, you have commented on almost nothing(which unfortunately your town meta can support). In addition you were basically absent for 1-2 days, that moves you back towards null. Obviously if you continue to not comment or push any scum reads then you will move back towards red. I get that you think I'm scum, now move on and do something productive. On December 09 2011 00:25 Palmar wrote: If you present a strong enough case and can convince people to kill radfield, I don't think I would oppose killing him today. My preferable target remains annul though. Ask yourself this: If I am scum, is this the best scum game I have ever played? If I am town, is this about where I am most day 2's, maybe slightly more scattered? Which do you think more likely? This is not an argument, just a question. Not even one you have to answer right now. | ||
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On December 09 2011 00:41 Toadesstern wrote: The problem is that it went incredible fast early on (the first 6 votes) and stopped there for 24 hours. Do you really think 4 people are sheeping you that hard to just vote like this without an explanation? Don't you think mafia would have hoped on that wagon sometimes yesterday no matter annuls alignment? If you're really right with your case I would not want to touch annul with a pole from here to whereever he lives. If you're wrong mafia would love to get on that wagon to see a townie dead without doing a thing (that is if you're town) and would have hoped on there not right from the beginning but surely sometime. Because I can't see one of that happening I'm saying that there's already 1 or 2 mafias who hopped on that wagon from the very beginning along with some sheeping townies. The fact that a case builds steam quickly and then completely grounds out makes it more likely the case is on a mafia player. What your saying is precisely true. If annul was a townie mafia would have no problem jumping all over it. However, if both are town the optimal scenario today for mafia is that we no-lynch, and both annul and Palmar are around Day 3 as well. | ||
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But from my perspective I know none of your reads, because you are focused almost entirely on me. | ||
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On December 09 2011 01:30 redFF wrote: the slowness of the wagon on you indicates there are zero scum voting you. No the slowness of the wagon on Palmar indicates that he is no longer a particularly safe place for mafia to vote. Reasons like "he stirred up shit with v7" simply do not fly anymore, nor does "he trolled day 1". At this point you need an actual reason to be voting Palmar. In addition Palmar being the floridian gives him a large amount of townie points if you look objectively at the set-up. | ||
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palmar OMGUSes me hardcore when he has behaved completely anti-town the entire time. his case is rooted in deep logical flaws. the wagon itself (specifically, supporters' reasons for jumping on) are rooted in horrifically bad logic (if any at all). does palmar have history of this shit? yeeeeeeep. every single game he plays. so right now my target is palmar. any reads i have on anyone else are irrelevant unless it is a certainty the palmar train doesn't roll. i've been on him since day 1. Just to be really clear, you think Palmar is scum, and we should vote for him, yes? I'm not trying to be thick, but you're stating Palmar plays like this every game(therefore null), yet also stating he is your target. Also, if you're going to write up a big post it makes no sense to do it at lynch time when you're already at majority. Do it now, and show us you have reads and care about this game. I appreciate you are busy, but you're saying you'll have time to write-up a conditional big post in a few hours, but not right now. When writing it up now could theoretically sway a lynch off you. | ||
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On December 09 2011 07:51 Mattchew wrote: Do you believe that he was role blocked? Honestly that probably shouldn't equate too much with necessarily being town. Two roleblocks means we likely have a jailkeeper, which means anyone could get roleblocked regardless of alignment. You don't want someone being likely town just because they got roleblocked. A town jailkeeper ensures that mafia can still use their roleblock without fear of confirming townies. | ||
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On December 09 2011 08:08 Mattchew wrote: Rad, how much KP do you believe mafia has when we have a vig and joat, and whatever other blues If mafia have 3KP, that is pretty high in a 6v19 setup(assuming the floridian doesn't make it to endgame). The problem is it becomes diffiucult for town to catch up even if they are hitting scum. I think either way we have to hit a scum by Day 3, but with only 2KP it means we are allowed at least 1 more mislynch I think. So setup wise 2KP makes sense, maybe with a one-shot kill in there sometime. Given that no one else claimed a hit last night, and that syllo almost certainly shot(2 bullets + high death rate), indicates a third KP is unlikely. I would say that the only possible way mafia have 3KP is if the roleblocking(or jailing) of Eran or redFF somehow stopped a KP. Info wise it also makes sense mafia have 2KP. I would guess mafia have something like mafia#/3 rounded up. Or maybe 2KP until they reach 2 members, or something like that. I wouldn't be surprised though if they have some form of one-off KP though. | ||
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On December 09 2011 08:59 Lanaia wrote: Okay, I'm back until 6pm PST (approx). Right now, I feel guilted into unvoting Eran. I'm wondering if I should because a replacement was made and I don't like voting replacements right away. Ethically, is it bad for me to keep my vote where it is? I don't want to vote annul because I think he's town and I don't think I want to vote Palmar. Who other than erandorr do you think is scummy? | ||
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On December 09 2011 09:05 Jackal58 wrote: Radfield - Does the scum team have 2 role blockers? It's possible, but I would lean towards a jailkeeper. Jailkeepers are neat roles in the dynamic they cause. If scum does have two roleblockers, we likely have some decent investigative roles. DT's, Trackers, Watchers. But the presence of two roleblocks(no matter where they come from) does a lot to dissuade any roleclaiming blues. | ||
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On December 09 2011 09:08 annul wrote: radfield: who is MOST town in your eyes? Toadesstern | ||
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On December 09 2011 10:34 vaderseven wrote: ##unvote ##vote Palmar ill brb but wanted to not vote the guy that obv is not lieing. There is absolutely no way we have two town jacks. If you are town then your vote absolutely needs to be on annul. That was complete bs annul. If you truly believe Palmar was mafia you should have shot him in the face. He flips red you are full cleared and a ton of people are caught. That was a complete handwashing of any consequences. | ||
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On December 09 2011 10:32 annul wrote: this is why i told you to pay attention to what was going on lol you have the same powers i do, yes? Annul if you are town there is no way vaderseven is also town. Jacks are insanely powerful + we had a 2-shot vig. No way. One scum jack, one town jack. Having the same powers DOES NOT mean you two have the same alignment. ##VOTE ANNUL | ||
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please explain your reasoning for that. | ||
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On December 09 2011 10:57 Toadesstern wrote: so you're basicly saying that rad, annul and I am all mafia. Annul asked the thread to tell us who is the most likely towny, rad, the scumbuddy. came out of nowhere saying it's Toad, and I get to shoot someone? Yes I am asking this again because I just can't believe it. No, annul was looking for a way to wash his hands of a dead townie. Yes there is a chance that he hit mafia too, but if you know that the top suspects atm are not mafia, you are almost 100% in the clear. Annul knew my list of townies, and likely knew that Toad was at the top. Toad has been pretty open about his reads, which means Annul can basically narrow down the hit before it even happens. If annul is town, consider that having Toad shoot for him says the LEAST about annul alignment as possible. Why would he do that!? He thinks highly of his own play, he thinks very confidently that Palmar is scum....... so just let some random townie pick the shot? No way. You shoot Palmar in the face, and that ends all discussion of you being scum. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:00 annul wrote: for seemingly obvious reasons i will do no such thing You are a fucking Jack! You have a whole mitfull of powers, yet you opt to not use one on night 1. Vaderseven, is there any reasonable likelihood you would not use ANY of your powers last night if you could? Does it make sense to you that Annul did not use an action last night? | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:03 hyshes wrote: Rad doesn't have to be scum for this to work. Everyone knew you and rad had a lot of towncred. Annul asked rad directly. Rad is ofcourse not gonna say himself, since that's a dumb answer. Then annul asks a different question to the rest of us: if you are scum or not. And then annul is doing a petition. And to top that, you pick out a "consensus" (no he wasn't) suspicious townie. This all just screams "trickery". I don't think so hyshes. As long as Annul knows what Toads general reads are, he can easily pass the buck to him before the shot. The reason Toad has so much towncred is because he is town. Last thing you want to do as mafia is draw a bunch of nasty suspicion onto a guy which is basically confirmed town by the who thread. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:06 vaderseven wrote: yes it does. You guys are useless jacks, that's what your telling me. | ||
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Annul's actions still don't add up. | ||
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On December 09 2011 10:55 kingjames01 wrote: You're right. I concede this point. I hadn't read Mafia XLVII so I was unaware of this possibility. However, my case does not rely on that premise. My intent here is that you cannot rely on dead Townie's suspicions to find mafia. Many times mafia will kill a Townie PRECISELY because that Townie suspected the wrong person. Why are you here debating something outrageously irrelevant to the current situation. Day 1 you threw your vote away after lurking hardcore, you are doing the exact same thing again. You've popped up at the end of each day making a case on an irrelevant player while barely commenting on any of the goings on of the day. You also continue to talk in generalities. Please step it up. | ||
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Annul is up against the ropes here the only way to save his ass is to hit a mafia, and you think he's going to put the gun in TOADS hand?? Screw that, you cock the gun and fire at your strongest scum read, the one presumably leading the lynch on you(remember if you are town you know the wagon on you is bs too). Kingjames, Jackal, mattchew, toad, lanaia, VE, Please switch your votes to annul. No way what he did comes from a townie mindset. That would be the worst play ever, unless you thought you had terrible terrible scum reads(which annul most certainly does not think of himself) Keep in mind prplhz just got shot, so we are down to 9 votes on annul, but still need 11. Corrupt, in the off chance that you actually place a vote and don't get modkilled, please vote annul. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:23 kingjames01 wrote: It's not irrelevant. Just because you believe it to be so doesn't make it so. I have here a GENUINE mafia candidate who I am voting instead of speculating between players who I actually believe to be Town. Great, he's not going to get lynched today. Do you really think everything that just went down is tickety-boo? Just business as usual? | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:26 Risen wrote: Well hmm... Between finals and going to dinner tonight has been much more busy than I thought it would be. Is there anything I absolutely MUST know before pouring through everything I've missed and voting? I'll justify my vote as best I can. It looks like the two main candidates for a vote are annul and... annul. Everyone else hardly has any votes. Yes, you need to vote annul. We need two votes, and yours is supremely important. Annul is a jack, he also has access to a dayvig shot. With 11 votes and him likely to be lynched, he asked for town consensus on the who the most likely town was(toad). He then passed his dayvig shot to toad and toad killed prplhz. I hold that annul was trying to wash his hands of any deaths. Any true town player would simply have taken their shot at the player they think most likely scum, not rely on some other players scum reads. Annul has been pushing Palmar as scum for 72 hours and 50 pages. Had he shot him and Palmar flipped red he would be 99% confirmed town. Instead he passed his shot to some other person. No way annul is town. Please vote annul. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:29 vaderseven wrote: Honestly, aanul has 100% verified his claim. What would a jack that can do a traditional cop be useful to as the mafia? THINK PEOPLE THINK. It wouldn't, role cop is moderately useful, but not really. However annul does not necessarily have access to the same other 2 powers that you do. I don't even know why I asked the question. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:29 VisceraEyes wrote: Rad: My top scum-reads are STILL VOTING FOR ANNUL. I'm not voting for Annul. If you're willing to compromise, I'd be willing to go with a redFF vote, but I'm NOT giving scumPalmar his lynch of choice. Not today. redFF doesn't look great, but I haven't touched his filter since Day 1, so I don't know. Honestly, if annul flips red you don't look so hot either VE. Apologies for the spam, I meant to consolidate with my previous post. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:34 Risen wrote: Reading in reverse order here. Why is it that annul giving away his shot is scum? Why would a town aligned player give away his shot? Why not just shoot your top scum read, the one you have been pushing for days. Unless of course you know that player will flip town. If annul was scum, could he have done anything better in this situation to clear his name, short of actually shooting a teammate? Put yourself in annuls shoes(as scum), and ask yourself what you would do to get out of the lynch? | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:42 annul wrote: thats a wrong sequence 1. palmar plays like a complete retard day 1 2. i call him out for this shit, starting on day 1 3. day 2 comes and PALMAR, in true fashion, does the OMGUS that he does every fucking game, on me this time. 4a. i defend it as best i can. . . 4b. . . . until i realize i cant stop it, so i have to claim. So why didn't you shoot him? I also notice that nowhere in that sequence of events does Palmar play like scum. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:40 Risen wrote: Ok, I'm confused. Someone explain this sequence of events to me. From reading his filter, and looking at Palmar's. Palmar accuses annul of being scum, VE accuses Palmar of being scum (shocking), annul says wtf why is everyone voting for me, Palmar gives a case on annul that isn't convincing at all, annul freaks and starts OMGUS, annul gives out his role and asks toads what to do, toads says shoot prplhz, annul shoots prplhz (I thought prplhz was scum going into d2), annul #1 lynch target in spite of being jack? Correct me if I'm misreading things here. The case on annul is pretty solid. I recommend you reread it. I made several additional points when I voted him. Since voting Palmar(for a terrible reason) midway through Day 1, annul has done virtually nothing. Even today he promised a big fat post but then simply passed over his dayvig shot to a townie. Annul is putting in very little effort, something that is a hallmark of scum. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:46 Risen wrote: I'm just wondering why annul is scum in this situation and v7 is town. I'm not sure your last question is fair, either. What is annul supposed to do in this situation as town? Why is his action scummy? I think it's scummy, but I think that only because I think v7's decision was scummy. I'm unvoting annul and placing it on redff. I still don't like him even AFTER reading his filter. You're right, vader is back on the table given that we have a second Jack. But his play has been pretty green, whereas annul has been pretty red. What is annul supposed to do in this situation as town? He was supposed to shoot. If I was a town aligned dayvig, and I was getting hung, I would never in a million years pass off my shot to someone else. NEVER. If I had absolutely no scum reads, I would still probably take a shot, because allowing someone else to take the shot says nothing about my alignment. Add to that that the player taking the shot is very new, and you have something annul would never do. If I actually had a scum-read, one I have pushed for days on a player who looks very unlikely to be ever be lynched, in fact this player is well known for talking his way out of lynches, that is a no-brainer. You pop in, you shoot Palmar, and you become the town hero. Why was annul looking for a way to wash his hands. Why does toad taking the shot even make any sense. You know why annul asked the mods if he could shoot himself and modkill everyone on his wagon? Because there are no scum on the wagon, and it would be an instant GG. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:50 Risen wrote: Wait what? OMGUS is such scum behavior. Forcing people to act in an irrational manner is STUPID. We should have been able to be patient and Palmar has now forced two jack's out of hiding. How the hell is that pro-town? Wait hold on. I'm not even sure what you're referring to now. Palmar did not OMGUS annul. Annul had been voting and pushing Palmar for 36 hours before the flip, at which point Palmar accused annul of being scum. An accusation that was at that time based on new information to the thread. Palmar did NOT force annul out into the open. Palmar built a case and pushed it. Palmar did NOT force vaderseven into the open. Palmar applied pressure to see if vader actually had notes. Yes they both resulted in an outted jack, but the motivation from Palmar in both cases was sound. | ||
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On December 09 2011 11:54 annul wrote: and now everyone on the red team will look at this post and my next few posts and try to find the breadcrumb. be smarter than that. lets just say it has to do with our night powers in some capacity. On December 09 2011 11:54 vaderseven wrote: annul is town. Are you really serious vader. You are absolutely 100% sure that annul could not be scum? If you are actually town annul then I have no idea what you were thinking. On December 09 2011 11:58 redFF wrote: rad looks bad after prplz's flip, prplhz is an easy mislynch and rad knows that. Could have been attempting to switch from annul or trying to setup another town lynch. or just wrong i guess lol. Annul's role makes perfect sense especially with vader's matching up. Rad how is the floridian such an obviously town role this game? I stated several times since my case that I was warming up on prplhz. Floridian is town because 7 votes vs 19 is overwhelming mafia favored. 6 votes vs 20 is better, but still on the mafia side of the spectrum. Not to mention floridian is neutral by definition, NOT scum favored like you are saying. | ||
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On December 09 2011 12:06 vaderseven wrote: Annul is TOWN. Voting him gets TOWN KILLED. Palmar is the scummiest IMO. Fuck it, I'm going to bed. I'll put my vote on redFF. If someone wants to rally the troops be my guest. I sincerely hope corrupt is scum, or we are probably at lylo tomorrow. | ||
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On December 09 2011 22:15 Palmar wrote: Rad was completely fucking wrong, to the point of me thinking he might be mafia. Only thing that makes him not be mafia is the fact that he tried to lynch annul last night. I tried Palmar, I really tried. At some point I need to trust other players though, and vader yelling that annul is town(when he has more information than me) is something I cannot combat. I would say there is a 90% chance that one of you or me is dead tonight, but if we both live we can work it out tomorrow. Also, what was I wrong about, prplhz? I agree, and I had already mentioned several times I thought he looked better. Had I been around I would have likely pushed toad to pick erandorr(which I think would also have ended in a townie death). TruthBringer, Risen, hyshes, redFF, sandroba, Zephirdd. I think Risen looks decent. Zephirdd I was pretty sure was town earlier, not so sure anymore. redFF could very well be town(despite my exasperation vote last night) and isn't worth looking at just yet. Hyshes and Truthbringer could very well be scum, though both seem genuine. sandroba I think is almost surely scum at this point. He has done nothing all game. That is not a style problem, it is a motivation problem. Dollars to donuts he still has very little to say when he returns to the thread(with excuse in hand). Kingjames is scummy by virtue of playing a different game than the rest of us. Building cases that are obviously not going to get followed up on, refusing to have a strong opinion on any players currently up for lynch etc. If annul flips scum then Jackal and VE need to be looked at long and hard. Neither have been willing to vote annul all game. If annul is town then we do actually have another medic. With a either a likely jailkeeper in the mix, or if annul/vader have a medic ability, Drazerk's claim becomes complete bs. No way we have a whole bunch of protective roles with only 2 scum KP. I won't be on at all today until 1 hour before the daypost. No one protect annul. There is a 0% chance of him dying tonight even if he is town, because it would help us immensely on day 3. Watcher needs to be on vader tonight. Since he can use an ability tonight he is surely going to be targeted with a roleblock or KP. If sandro is scum and mafia have a framer, they will likely target him tonight to have him flip green. Him or annul. If you are investigating, search someone else. Medics on Palmar, myself, vader or toad. If you want to pick your own target that is fine too though, because we need a save to keep us running. I would say do NOT protect drazerk. Either mafia kill him and clear things up for us, or they leave him alive to keep protecting. Both situations are a win for town. | ||
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My feelings on annul are very strange. His play, and his actions point towards him being scum, yet there are little niggles that make me think he is town. Stuff like this: On December 09 2011 12:20 annul wrote: huh v7 that actually makes a lot of sense. maybe palmar isnt red after all On December 09 2011 12:22 annul wrote: lynching town gets us to lylo faster no lynch >>>>>>>>>>> town lynch But maybe it's just me being dumb. My brain is telling me to lynch annul, my gut tells me not to. In almost all cases my brain is more correct than my gut. If someone shoots annul tonight that would make life unbelievably easier for town. Even if he flips town it means that almost all the non-contributors on that wagon are scum. If anyone has any questions for me I suggest you ask them in the next 45 minutes. | ||
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But yeah, you're probably less likely to be mafia than I previously thought. | ||
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His general posting seems pretty decent. | ||
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GG guys and gals. | ||
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