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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 06:08 VisceraEyes wrote:
Radfield, if you had to lynch one of Palmar or Sandroba, which would it be and why?
Sandro 10 times out of 10. I think Palmar is town, I think Sandro is somewhat scummy right now. However, on rereading his filter he looks better than I had thought.
A few thoughts:
* His early game felt forced
* He was one of the people who tried to make both Palmar and vaderseven look scummy after the dayvig exchange
Other than that it's simply that he hasn't contributed much.
Sandro wrote: Annul is playing very simillar to what he did day1 in the last game, which made me suspicious of him. However he did shape up day 2 and I was able to correctly identify him as town that game. I'll reserve judgement to tomorrow if I'm alive, if not it's up to you bastards to decide.
@Annul Can you please point me to a game where you lasted a bit as scum, I'm in a mood to read right now.
What can you tell me about your read of annul's last scum game? Was it similar to this game or XLVII? You state annul was very similar to a previous game where he was town, does that still hold? If he hadn't claimed a hit today would you still think him very scummy and worth a lynch?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 06:16 Erandorr wrote:Hey Radfield : Show nested quote +
More importantly, does Annul look like scum? I honestly can't tell. I can certainly see a lot of mafia motivation in his posts and actions(jumping on Palmar, casting suspicion on me multiple times, thinking Soap was red and then getting super upset when he died), but his tone looks genuine.
Show nested quote +I have my own problems with annul so far, but none of them make me think he is the best lynch today. Show nested quote +
There are other reasons he may be scum, but you're not offering any of them.
Show nested quote +
Annul was just barely on the town side of null for me at the end of N1, and he is still there now.
What the fuck?
Not sure what you're getting at...
All four of those statement jive. Annul has done several things this game to make me give him scum points, however on the whole he falls just on the town side of null. Had he not done any of those things I would have a very solid town read on him.
All those quotes show is that I am willing to give my reads and work them out in thread. There ARE things annul has done that you could show as scummy, however no one willing to lynch him has actually done that. If you TRULY believe annul is scum, then it should be easy to go through his posts and find more evidence, it's always easy to see it once you know for sure. However not one single person on the wagon has done that, not to mention I think there is a decent bit of scum on the wagon(yourself included)
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 06:45 Erandorr wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 06:38 Radfield wrote:On December 08 2011 06:08 VisceraEyes wrote:
Radfield, if you had to lynch one of Palmar or Sandroba, which would it be and why? Sandro 10 times out of 10. I think Palmar is town, I think Sandro is somewhat scummy right now. However, on rereading his filter he looks better than I had thought. A few thoughts: * His early game felt forced * He was one of the people who tried to make both Palmar and vaderseven look scummy after the dayvig exchange Other than that it's simply that he hasn't contributed much. Sandro wrote: Annul is playing very simillar to what he did day1 in the last game, which made me suspicious of him. However he did shape up day 2 and I was able to correctly identify him as town that game. I'll reserve judgement to tomorrow if I'm alive, if not it's up to you bastards to decide.
@Annul Can you please point me to a game where you lasted a bit as scum, I'm in a mood to read right now. What can you tell me about your read of annul's last scum game? Was it similar to this game or XLVII? You state annul was very similar to a previous game where he was town, does that still hold? If he hadn't claimed a hit today would you still think him very scummy and worth a lynch? Hey Radfield, could you explain that rather weird stance on annul you seem to have? Look at the quotes I took from your posts. You said that there are other reasons why annul could be scum, that you had your own reasons to doubt his townieness and then you come out and tell us you still lean town towards him. Why did you never specify what concerns you seem to have with annul and where did that apparant change of mind come from. It is a big step from "not the best lynch" to "leaning town" without a real explanation
I assume I answered this as well in my last post. Yes I have reasons to doubt his townieness, yes I am leaning slight town on him... those two statements are not contradictory. The obvious missing statement is that I also have reasons to believe his townieness.
@Toadesstern, I am willing to move on Erandorr as well. Add in to your case that his last game as town, Mini Mafia X, he was very solid Day 1. The most solid I've seen him play.
@prplhz, you have some decent points there, and I'm going to respond more in detail, but my case is most certainly not about you swearing or not. I'm talking about aggression and tone, and that does not just mean a pottymouth.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 07:21 Palmar wrote:
I'm surprised radfield, as I feel prplhz is doing a better job at looking town than I've seen before.
I also felt prplhz was looking townie halfway through yesterday, but his actions are against him.
Truthbringer was over-the-top scummy with his first posts, which is very very rarely a scum trait. Since that I feel he has been decent.
vaderseven is almost surely town. He might be my strongest town read. The fact that prplhz is still pushing for lynching him seems like he's not even paying attention. If he's a jack he is town, if he's a jack he can prove his role. Add to that his posting is very green, and you have someone not worth looking at for a long time. If he is miraculously still around on day 4/5 after having done nothing for town, then yeah, but not until then.
The case on Mattchew was pretty thin in my eyes, though to be honest I skim-read it. I had mattchew down as prob town. However, I just re-read his filter and it looks worse than I recall. In particular his posts after getting called out.
There are definitely mafia motives with posts like these:
On December 08 2011 00:26 Mattchew wrote:your making it extremely hard even though I agree votes should be on annul until someone steps up and claims they protected him
On December 08 2011 01:39 Mattchew wrote:(Both sentences in this quote)
I am slowly becoming more and more ok with lynching Palmar, and if he flips red following with the lynching V7.
Red and Eran still waiting on the roles you claim to be blocked from doing... One of them could be mafia and had their KP blocked
He also made the worlds shortest 'case' against erandorr.
That being said I'm not real sure he is scum, but he certainly reads less green than I thought.
So where does that leave me on prplhz you ask? I'm not really sure. His defense was decent: truthbringer IS less of a raw newb than I realized, PYPI was multi scum teams so is moot, my points about tone are pretty weak. But his reaction to the v7 vig shot, his justification of finding v7 scummy, and his semi flip-flop on annul rub me very much the wrong way. I'm not really sure which way to take it from here.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 08:34 redFF wrote:
radfield what do you think about palmar?
I think he is probably town. Floridian makes a huge amount of sense to be in town hands, and he most certainly is the floridian. It makes almost zero sense to be in scum hands, because that is balancing the game in the wrong direction.
I also do not see scum motivation in his Day 1 posting. I really liked his Dayvig gambit, and(like him) I was laughing as I was reading the thread, even when I saw the kill posted and realized the thread was going to turn into a shitshow, I still thought it was funny. I very much see Palmar as town all the way through the second half of Day 1. I have a lot of respect for Palmar's scum play, but he is a solid town read at this point.
What I have a problem with Palmar, and this is addressed to you, is that I have very little inkling of your reads right now. You are pushing annul, but without using any actual arguments. Do you even care if he gets lynched? I honestly feel like I could make a better case for annul being scum then you have. Who else is clogging up your scumdar other than annul?
I would very much like the Palmar lynch idea to go away. It is hugely detrimental to town, and based solely off the fact that Palmar played a very non-standard Day 1 (though not a scummy one by any means). It's also a very safe place for mafia to hide, as one hardly even needs a reason to vote Palmar at this point.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 09:11 prplhz wrote:
@Radfield My main point about vaderseven is that he shot Soap. Since sandroba and Palmar pointed out that you're probably scum you have dropped your "please let me do nothing until night2"-idea and tried to appear a lot more helpful, so maybe you can tell me why vaderseven shot Soap?
Can you also tell me about your other scum reads besides me? I think townie Radfield at this point would have like the entire scum team mapped out but you have one non-scum in me and then you have Erandorr who I don't have a clear read on right now but I think he's town.
You're wrong, you find me a game where I had multiple scum reads on Day 2, and I guarantee you will find a game where I was scum. I don't generally get strong scum reads early on. Look at my play in PYPInsane, or PYP2 my reads almost always only galvanize around night 2.
I work by finding townies, eliminating the null reads, and working down from there. I'm willing to admit thought that I don't have a lot of clarity right now though. I need to spend less time IN the thread, and more time OUT of the thread(read/filter more, post/reply less), which is why I'm currently re-reading the thread(which is moving quite a bit faster than it should).
Solid Town
Palmar
vaderseven
Zephirdd
Toadesstern
Maybe Town
Drazerk
Truthbringer
Visceraeyes
Annul
RedFF
Lanaia?
Risen?
Refallen?
Prob Scum
kingjames01
Erandorr
Sandro?
Hyshes?
prplhz?
That is loosely what I'm looking at right now.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 09:34 vaderseven wrote:
VEyes, dont unvote him if you think he is scum.
We gotta break that pattern now.
vader, I think you are town, but I think you are very much off base on Palmar.
If Palmar did not exist, who else would you be gunning for today?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'm going to tell you right now that you are not alone Zephridd  There are legions of townies who 'get a bad feeling' about me between the end of day one and end of day two when I am town. It honestly happens every single game to me. Someone should figure out why and tell me so I can fix it
You are on the Solid Town list for a very specific reason. I'm not going to go into it deeper than that.
All the other people missing from those three lists are pretty null. I either haven't relooked over them, they are very inactive, or I simply don't have a great read. I will also add that hyshes probably doesn't belong on my prob scum list, he is much more null at this point.
Also keep in mind that the Drazerk claim of a roleblock immune medic who has to claim night 1 is a joke. It's either a joke by Incog, or a joke by Drazerk. In LOTR Drazerk claimed medic during Day 2 for no apparent reason and actually managed to stay alive until the end of the game, and I think he even made a save.
On December 08 2011 11:54 prplhz wrote:
@Zephirdd
You're not off about Radfield's list, it is weird because he is likely scum and you're very likely town.
You're not wrong about how very specific speculation about setup/roles can't be effectively relied upon in a closed setup.
I don't think it is likely that Drazerk is scum, we can only speculate about why scum did not kill him. My theory is that they wanted to isolate Palmar and lynch him today so they took away two of his biggest supporters.
If you see a problem with my list then let me hear it. Don't just snipe.
I hope you realize I am also one of strongest voices in the thread against a Palmar lynch? Problem is I don't like annul either, and I don't have a good fallback target since I'm leaning more and more town on you.
I will say this, I'm willing to lynch sandro if he doesn't start being more useful. He has almost zero contribution at this point, when he should be starting to pinpoint scum.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 12:10 Zephirdd wrote:
So yeah, no point in speculating that. I don't know how to avoid these WIFOM circles, so I'll just assume that Palmar is town for the time being.
There is a very easy way to avoid the WIFOM circles. 9 out of 10 times mafia act in their own best interest. Yes there is the occasional bus, and yes there is the occasional false roleclaim, but they are the exception. Ideally you learn to pick out those exceptions, but if you simply ask yourself "would it be advantageous to do this as mafia" then you will be right far more often than you are wrong. No need for WIFOM.
However, Palmar, of all the players I have seen play is more than willing to break that rule(cop claim in SMG as scum????). I don't think that is what he is doing here though. I can see why redFF might jump to that conclusion though.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 12:27 redFF wrote:
scumteam atm is palmar, prplhz, zephirdd mattchew and then someone else i dunno maybe rad?
![[image loading]](http://i54.tinypic.com/dwdv1x.jpg)
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2011 23:37 annul wrote:
now i have a final exam in 27 minutes, so im going to eat my food and get to school. but seriously palmar give it up
Do you think Palmar is still scum annul? If not him then who? Who else do you think is scummy, who should be our lynch today?
@Palmar, that's a much better case, and one I can get behind.
Originally I felt his 'blueslip' catch made him seem townie in origin, not so sure now though.
The fact that he came into the thread and asked for a recap is generally not something mafia would do. However this is very much true:
Now, please recheck annul's filter ( here ) and scroll down to where he votes me. Notice how sharply his contribution rate has fallen. Not only that, but there is also NO effort at scumhunting at all. He literally hasn't accused anyone of anything since he decided I was red. There is no substance. I think the closest thing was calling Jackal a moron.
His claim of being hit also struck me as genuine:
On December 07 2011 14:38 annul wrote:
apparently someone shot me but it was negated somehow
On December 07 2011 14:41 annul wrote:
i just asked and was told someone medic'd me. <3.
ok so reds have 3 kp then
On December 08 2011 01:23 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 21:46 kingjames01 wrote:
annul, what do you mean, you "asked"? Did you ask the mods how you were saved? Is that what you meant?
wbg: "you took a hit tonight" me: "does this mean a medic saved me?" wbg: "yes"
But looking at it again reminds me of how I felt taking a hit as third party in PYP1. In general when you take a hit, you DO NOT claim how(vet or medic) but simply just let the thread know you took a hit. However when you take a hit as mafia(saved by town) you immediately claim the medic save, RoL in Closed Casket did the exact same thing. Why? Because being saved by a town medic buys you townie credit. He also very quickly agreed to the idea that mafia did not hit him, but syllo did. Maybe that's because the evidence is decent, but if syllo was suspicious of me during the night and I took a hit I would not immediately accept that syllo must have shot me.
##Vote: Annul
On December 08 2011 23:59 Jackal58 wrote:
Hi Radfield. Could you answer a couple of questions for me?
1. Why did you omit me from your list? You were suspicious of me on day 1. Did you leave me off just to give me a warm fuzzy feeling about you?
2. You have Annul on your "maybe town" section but two posts later you don't like him. Which is it?
3. You have prplhz on your "prob scum" section but again 2 posts later you're leaning more and more town on him. Part of your analysis on him previously was his vote on Annul. So are you flip flopping Annul and Prplhz on your list? If so why such a rapid change of opinion?
These appear to be contradictions to me. A wee bit of waffling. Could you help me try to understand where you are coming from?
Yep, reads change. As I said, I'm warming up on prplhz, and as should have been obvious from my posting, I had conflicting thoughts on annul. That's why they were both question marks.
You completely disappeared, and have basically been inactive this entire game. Other than the slight pressure I've tossed your way, you have commented on almost nothing(which unfortunately your town meta can support). In addition you were basically absent for 1-2 days, that moves you back towards null. Obviously if you continue to not comment or push any scum reads then you will move back towards red. I get that you think I'm scum, now move on and do something productive.
On December 09 2011 00:25 Palmar wrote:
If you present a strong enough case and can convince people to kill radfield, I don't think I would oppose killing him today. My preferable target remains annul though.
Ask yourself this: If I am scum, is this the best scum game I have ever played? If I am town, is this about where I am most day 2's, maybe slightly more scattered? Which do you think more likely? This is not an argument, just a question. Not even one you have to answer right now.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 09 2011 00:41 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 00:35 Palmar wrote:On December 09 2011 00:26 redFF wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Palmar
the slowness of this wagon and the amount of protest from people like prplhz and his awful case against annul is enough. Explain where the case is awful. And would you be more comfortable voting annul if the wagon was faster? I'm asking because normally I hear people throw around ideas that fast-building wagons are scummy, but now you say slow building wagons are scummy? Say, what rate would you prefer the wagon to get going at? Or did you just throw that in there to justify your vote on me? The problem is that it went incredible fast early on (the first 6 votes) and stopped there for 24 hours. Do you really think 4 people are sheeping you that hard to just vote like this without an explanation? Don't you think mafia would have hoped on that wagon sometimes yesterday no matter annuls alignment? If you're really right with your case I would not want to touch annul with a pole from here to whereever he lives. If you're wrong mafia would love to get on that wagon to see a townie dead without doing a thing (that is if you're town) and would have hoped on there not right from the beginning but surely sometime. Because I can't see one of that happening I'm saying that there's already 1 or 2 mafias who hopped on that wagon from the very beginning along with some sheeping townies.
The fact that a case builds steam quickly and then completely grounds out makes it more likely the case is on a mafia player.
What your saying is precisely true. If annul was a townie mafia would have no problem jumping all over it. However, if both are town the optimal scenario today for mafia is that we no-lynch, and both annul and Palmar are around Day 3 as well.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'm mostly interested in who you think are scummy and why Jackal. Though I'm also interested in which part of Palmar's case on annul you like, and which parts you don't(which you alluded to).
But from my perspective I know none of your reads, because you are focused almost entirely on me.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 09 2011 01:30 redFF wrote:
the slowness of the wagon on you indicates there are zero scum voting you.
No the slowness of the wagon on Palmar indicates that he is no longer a particularly safe place for mafia to vote. Reasons like "he stirred up shit with v7" simply do not fly anymore, nor does "he trolled day 1". At this point you need an actual reason to be voting Palmar.
In addition Palmar being the floridian gives him a large amount of townie points if you look objectively at the set-up.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Sandro, in as few caps as possible, who else do you think is scummy this game? Who do you think is very likely town?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
palmar OMGUSes me hardcore when he has behaved completely anti-town the entire time. his case is rooted in deep logical flaws. the wagon itself (specifically, supporters' reasons for jumping on) are rooted in horrifically bad logic (if any at all). does palmar have history of this shit? yeeeeeeep. every single game he plays.
so right now my target is palmar. any reads i have on anyone else are irrelevant unless it is a certainty the palmar train doesn't roll. i've been on him since day 1.
Just to be really clear, you think Palmar is scum, and we should vote for him, yes? I'm not trying to be thick, but you're stating Palmar plays like this every game(therefore null), yet also stating he is your target.
Also, if you're going to write up a big post it makes no sense to do it at lynch time when you're already at majority. Do it now, and show us you have reads and care about this game. I appreciate you are busy, but you're saying you'll have time to write-up a conditional big post in a few hours, but not right now. When writing it up now could theoretically sway a lynch off you.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I assume that means it has a roleclaim attached.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
VE, what are your thoughts on annul?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 09 2011 07:51 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 07:49 VisceraEyes wrote:On December 09 2011 07:45 Mattchew wrote:
I hate to say this. I was wrong. Erandorr (now Buma) was never scum. Poor analysis was made based on a poor sampling play and with him being replaced this just reads more and more town. I disagree. Erandorr was playing the game just fine. He was calling for a lynch of a Vet d1, okay? He built a monster case on Radfield d1. He didn't provide ANY content though. If he were unable to post, yeah, sure, okay...not enough information, poor sampling of posts, yadda yadda...but he was playing, man! I have no doubt that he was playing sick, but that does NOT make him town, I'm sorry. It just doesn't. Do you believe that he was role blocked?
Honestly that probably shouldn't equate too much with necessarily being town. Two roleblocks means we likely have a jailkeeper, which means anyone could get roleblocked regardless of alignment.
You don't want someone being likely town just because they got roleblocked. A town jailkeeper ensures that mafia can still use their roleblock without fear of confirming townies.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 09 2011 08:08 Mattchew wrote:
Rad, how much KP do you believe mafia has when we have a vig and joat, and whatever other blues
If mafia have 3KP, that is pretty high in a 6v19 setup(assuming the floridian doesn't make it to endgame). The problem is it becomes diffiucult for town to catch up even if they are hitting scum. I think either way we have to hit a scum by Day 3, but with only 2KP it means we are allowed at least 1 more mislynch I think. So setup wise 2KP makes sense, maybe with a one-shot kill in there sometime.
Given that no one else claimed a hit last night, and that syllo almost certainly shot(2 bullets + high death rate), indicates a third KP is unlikely. I would say that the only possible way mafia have 3KP is if the roleblocking(or jailing) of Eran or redFF somehow stopped a KP. Info wise it also makes sense mafia have 2KP.
I would guess mafia have something like mafia#/3 rounded up. Or maybe 2KP until they reach 2 members, or something like that. I wouldn't be surprised though if they have some form of one-off KP though.
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