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On November 22 2011 11:09 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2011 11:03 wherebugsgo wrote:
RoL, we don't have two medic claims. A medic flipped yesterday, prpl is claiming some sort of copycat (and he's already been hammered) and DCLXVI fucked up and soft-claimed medic.
Which, I doubt is a real town claim, I think it's a scumclaim. Now he continually soft claims without actually stating his damn role.
If you're town you would've disclosed full info by now. I highly doubt that you are at this point.
Bum, can you clarify why you chose to vote in the manner that you did? I asked forumite to vote DCL or palmar, and he did. I will vote nisani again tomorrow if you're refering to the timing? I'm very skeptical of nisani, but he did vote both DCL and palmar. I don't have much of a read on him anymore, but I did think he was scum. Think long think wrong.
What does Forumite voting DCL/Palmar have to do with you voting nisani?
If Forumite voted Palmar would you still have voted Nisani? What's with the conditional voting?
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On November 22 2011 11:12 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2011 11:10 wherebugsgo wrote:On November 22 2011 11:09 bumatlarge wrote:On November 22 2011 11:03 wherebugsgo wrote:
RoL, we don't have two medic claims. A medic flipped yesterday, prpl is claiming some sort of copycat (and he's already been hammered) and DCLXVI fucked up and soft-claimed medic.
Which, I doubt is a real town claim, I think it's a scumclaim. Now he continually soft claims without actually stating his damn role.
If you're town you would've disclosed full info by now. I highly doubt that you are at this point.
Bum, can you clarify why you chose to vote in the manner that you did? I asked forumite to vote DCL or palmar, and he did. I will vote nisani again tomorrow if you're refering to the timing? I'm very skeptical of nisani, but he did vote both DCL and palmar. I don't have much of a read on him anymore, but I did think he was scum. Think long think wrong. What does Forumite voting DCL/Palmar have to do with you voting nisani? If Forumite voted Palmar would you still have voted Nisani? What's with the conditional voting? Is vote bartering against the law? You vote palmar or DCL tomorrow, I'll vote whoever you want too.
and if I vote both you and DCL?
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also looks like a bunch of people didn't learn their day 1 lesson...
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On November 22 2011 21:00 Kibibit wrote:
Allrighty, so later today, I'll attempt to retype up my defense of chaoser who has been replaced, but the biggest problem for me is that we've lynched or lost at least 1 person whom I genuinely thought were scum, which bothers me greatly as far as trusting my instincts on players. I'm going to make a few passes through this thread and get a better feel for things now that there's nothing else better for me to be doing at the moment.
Newsflash: your instincts suck, start using logic. The faster you learn that the faster you stop being terrible.
And I mean that in general, not you specifically.
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kill nisani+bum tomorrow and interrogate Mr. Zentor to make sure he's scum, but probably kill him too.
Also take a look at Sabin, Lemon, Coag in order from scummiest to least scummy
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RoL is probably town.
You're probably not, though.
##vote Nisani201
##vote bumatlarge
What's setting me off about DCL is that nisani is voting him...
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RoL is very likely to be town because I thought Hiroruby was town. You're not. Please die.
There exists a case on you, I've reiterated it at least 3 times. Dumb townies are dumb. They don't listen. You die now. ooohhh thahnk yuuuu come agin
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I'm not threatened by your shitty votes, town is not going to push for my mislynch. I don't suck.
Bum voting DCL+Palmar is also very shady. He needs to die too.
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so Nisani has four votes, one of which is an OMGUS on me (carried over from day 1 rofl) and he accuses me of not making a case on him, when he in turn has made no case on me.
I've made my case. I made my case early day 1 and no one listened to it, now all Nisani does is randomly vote people and say absolutely nothing in his shitty posts.
He votes RoL for a baseless vote on Palmar, but he himself makes a baseless vote on RoL.
He accuses me of not using logic, when he himself is not using logic when he thinks both RoL and Palmar can be scum if RoL voted Palmar (derp)
And again, complaining of baseless votes by other players when he mentioned DCLXVI a grand total of once before voting him, then saying that my accusations that he has terrible logic are bad when his vote of DCLXVI is somehow a display of logic.
He says this:
On November 23 2011 12:46 Nisani201 wrote:
RoL has done nothing for town. The fact that you're soft defending him makes me more suspicious of you.
but has a problem with this:
On November 23 2011 12:42 wherebugsgo wrote:
What's setting me off about DCL is that nisani is voting him...
Most damning is this:
On November 21 2011 08:00 Nisani201 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 23:56 Palmar wrote:
yah, do you have a problem with that?
Like, I'm almost just as certain that nisani201 is scum, and I don't care if some hero of the town shoots him and leaves him dead in a ditch, he's not going to be useful anyway. Even if he's town nothing of value was lost. I will conclude my analysis with a scumlist that Palmar provides. Currently it provides no reasoning; however I wouldn't be surprised if he follows it up later today. Show nested quote +On November 21 2011 06:05 Palmar wrote:
I had an initial town read on prplhz, I'm sorry but I don't have time to expand upon that, so I'm just gonna go ahead and not support a lynch on him.
I'm really sorry for my performance today, real life is just taking time away from me.
here are my scumreads:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: chaoser
##Vote: Lemonwalrus
##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD Stop being manipulated. Get out of your box. Realize that Palmar is scum, and vote for him.
He accuses Palmar of being manipulative, and saying that Palmar is pushing a scum agenda.
Then he votes for two of the four people Palmar voted yesterday, AKA RoL and DCLXVI. If he truly believed Palmar was pushing a scum agenda then he wouldn't agree with half of his votes.
Kill Nisani.
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yo let's get this activity going. I don't want to triple post but as long as there are things to say I will say them.
Hiroruby did not look like scum to me. RoL doesn't either, though both players were highly inactive. The way they both received votes is more telling of their alignment than anything else.
If you look at who voted Hiroruby (and who is voting RoL) you'll see that both very town-like people and very scummy people have voted them. This is a strong suggestion that hiroruby/RoL is town, NOT scum.
DCLXVI has received votes in a similar pattern. While it's less certain that DCLXVI is town (to me, at least) I think we should consider other targets today. Other targets do exist, and the primary reason I'm wary of pushing DCLXVI now is that both bum and nisani are pushing for his lynch. Palmar, Nisani, and bum agreeing on something? I didn't see that happening, and I would bet quite a bit of money that both town and scum alignments are represented in that group of three players.
I'm not certain that Palmar is town at this point, since his scum play is somewhat erratic and he could very well just be going solo and bussing all his scumbuddies (as he did in SMG) but since his scum play is relatively inferior to his town play and he hasn't done anything scummy yet, I tend to believe that he isn't scum. I haven't voiced that openly until now since I'm just curious who will attack Palmar and who won't, but he is one of my strongest town reads on behavior alone.
Finally, take a look at these lists:
All players in green have flipped town (I've listed hyshes as town because Drazerk's flip basically confirms him)
All players in red voted on the biggest bandwagons, all townies, at least three times. Bolded in black are players who voted twice. Players italicized voted once.
Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206(14): chaoser, GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
Drazerk (10): prplhz, HarbingerOfDoom, xsksc, Lanaia, Cyber_Cheese, DCLXVI, Forumite, Zephirdd, Nisani201, sinani206
prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation
If you are a townie on this list, please step up your game and stop derping around. Do the right thing and lynch nisani and bumatlarge today. In addition, take a look at this list and see if you notice anything. If you do, let me know. Thank you.
My best scumreads are all among these players:
#1. Nisani201 (voted 3 times on the biggest bandwagons)
#2. bumatlarge (voted twice on the biggest bandwagons)
#3. Lemonwalrus (voted twice on the biggest bandwagons)
#4. chaoser/MrZentor (voted once on the biggest bandwagons)
The one who looks best from the voting record alone is chaoser.
I would bet quite a bit that at least one of my top 3 is scum, and a pretty modest amount that at least two are.
These players:
GreYMisT
Cyber_Cheese
Lanaia
Forumite
Look like dumb town to me atm, but I could very well be wrong. All of these players have voted THREE(!!) times on the biggest bandwagons. One could potentially make a valid case for all of these players to be scum, but I very much doubt more than one, or at most two is.
Please clean up your play if you are town.
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yo RoL did you vote nisani/bum?
I'm all for lynching the people who bandwagoned like mad but we have to discriminate between who is more likely to be scum and who is less likely to be.
Sure, it'd be a great way to get rid of the hard decision by just killing them all now, but I think we should lynch the ones who are scummiest first and then with those flips we can start pushing into the rest of the group tomorrow.
In fact, most of the people who were on all 3 lynches are probably idiot townies. They wouldn't want that much attention on themselves. I think we need to more carefully consider those who were only on two lynches.
Basically, I say we start with nisani/bum/chaoser. I know chaoser wanted to vote prpl, so he would've actually been on two lynch bandwagons. Scum like to split their votes between two candidates when both are town. I know this because I did it myself as scum. My team would split, one half pushing one townie for lynch and the other pushing the other. No matter who won, a townie would die.
In this game, if both win, two townies die.
So let's look at the lynch and see who, if anyone, had at least 3 votes and was on either kenpachi or sinani day 1 but not the other on the same day, and then was also on prpl day 2:
Day 1:
Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206(14): chaoser (would have been on prpl day 2), GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
Day 2:
prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation (would have been chaoser here as vote 13)
From this vote pattern alone some of the 3 voters (such as Cyber_Cheese and GreYMisT) are less likely to be scum (though we can't rule it out)
This is on the assumption that scum would split their vote to avoid as much suspicion as possible.
This means we should focus on:
bumatlarge, nisani, chaoser/mrzentor, forumite, lanaia.
All names I think are likely to bleed red.
If I missed something, let me know.
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explain why bum is unlikely to be scum.
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On November 23 2011 18:54 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2011 18:47 Palmar wrote:On November 23 2011 18:46 Forumite wrote:On November 23 2011 18:37 Tyrran wrote:
@Palmar
Now that 2 medics have been revealed, and none protected you, your hit claim looks more scummy. Mafia is confirmed to have 2KP ( as i dont think any vigilante would have been stupid enough to shoot drazerk/risk.nuke), but it would be rather easy for mafia to only use one, and for you to claim hit. A third medic is rather unlikely dont you think ? Palmar could also be a one-shot veteran, which means he was still shot, but survived despite there not being any medics involved. I have already explained that there is no mechanic in my role that allows me to survive night hits. Okay, then either DCL is not a medic, we have a third medic, or you are lying. I have a theory on the 3 deaths. The mechanic that is there to prevent people from claiming could have something to do with it, either claiming gives scum more nightkills, or they have a role that can target a player, and kills them if they have a role, but has no effect on vanilla townies.
at this point Palmar is very likely to not be lying.
There would need to be 2 town KP for mafia to only have 1 KP, and thus Palmar to be lying. I really doubt they would withhold a night 1 hit just to let Palmar claim it.
Why the fuck people are still seriously considering that Palmar is lying (and for it to be relevant to discussion) is beyond me.
The simple fact of the matter is, we can't find out whether Palmar is lying or not right now. We go with what we know, and our best leads. Our best leads do not lead us to Palmar being scum. They lead us to Nisani and bum being very probable scum.
Screw your heads back on your necks and think this through for a bit.
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On November 23 2011 18:53 Palmar wrote:Assuming you are correct about DCLXVI Tyrran, this is Nisani's vote record: (I think putting it in quotes stops ZBot from picking up on it) Show nested quote +##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Kenpachi
##Vote: Palmar
##Vote: Drazerk
##Vote: wherebugsgo
##Vote: prplhz
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD
RoL, WBG and Forumite all look pretty good to me btw.
I would believe those are all townies.
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On November 23 2011 19:39 Zephirdd wrote:..three kills? Shame, risk.nuke and Harbinger both died. nuke was my strongest town read this game in fact. I'd vote for DCL, but as Tyrran pointed out, it is also more likely that he is a blue rather than a red. But then, we either have a third medic, Palmar is lying or DCL is lying(Or the possibility that we do have a third medic AND Palmar is lying, or that DCL lies but there are two more medics, and etc etc etc, lets take the three first possibilities for now). One thing we should know though, is: Did someone else get hit?for the record, I don't think neither are lying and that there are actually more medics ingameI don't mean only tonight, but also night 1. This should be important to know how much KP mafia actually has IMO. as for votings, I'll follow Forumite and Tyrran here- ##Vote: Coagulation
##Vote: xsksc
##Vote: Sabin010(I think it's needless to say that Tyrran is my strongest townread atm right?) Also, I like Forumite's theory. I'm inclined more to the "someone has a role that they can target a player", but there must be some limitation to that. Lanaia is known to have a role since day 1 and she isn't dead, and her ability seems powerful enough to not want her alive. Well, that also makes it very hard to role claim in order to save yourself from a lynch, because that would just kill you anyway. I also want to hear from bumatlarge a bit, his opinion on the game and who he thinks is scum/town. No opinion on the WBG/Nisani case yet.
you're scum.
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##vote Zephirdd
If any of you read that post and honestly get a town read off it, I pity you.
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also ##vote Forumite
for being repeatedly thick/repeatedly pushing stupid lynches.
Stop it. Really. It's starting to get annoying. If you're actually town, take your head out of your ass and look at what you're doing.
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I didn't read his last vote post.
I'm unsure on Forumite, but he's pushing scum agenda. He needs to be set straight.
I'm acting on logic, my instinct tells me he's the most retarded townie in existence. I can't make an exception for anyone.
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If you can find a better way of setting him straight than putting the fear of lynch into him, then go ahead and tell me.
I'd actually be completely fine with lynching him regardless of alignment because he's actually doing far more to help scum win than probably scum themselves are.
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insta-win lol.
you never explained what makes bum unlikely to be scum.
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EPT
