Newbie Mini Mafia

Fron Bunneh:

From Drem:

From Skraamen:

"The worst way to play day 1 is with apathy and disinterest and lynch the most outspoken/controversial player, who is never going to be mafia."

"The most important thing to do with the day 1 lynch is look at the votes and trends. Was there a big swing for one candidate over another? How late was it in the cycle? How many people received 1-2 votes? In this case, the most interesting vote count list is the one posted with 4 hours to go. At this point, love1another has 6 votes, Bill Murray has 5, and Roffles has 4. There are 9 players with 1-2 votes and 4 players have not voted yet. This list tells you that there probably isn't a mafia in the top 2 vote getters. The votes are close enough that the mafia doesn't really have to risk itself too much to do a voteswing, but the mafia also don't want to do a voteswing at the last minute because last minute voteswingers generally get put under heavy pressure after an innocent lynch. The mafia would have been pushing a different candidate harder over the course of the day if there was a mafia at risk. Instead, expect to see the mafia pretty spread out among the votegetters and don't expect many of them to switch at the end. And sure enough, only Misder is voting for any of the top 3 vote getters. Infundibulum hasn't voted yet and the other 4 mafia members are in lists of 1-2 votes. Sure enough, looking at the final votes, only 1 mafia changed their vote and Infundibulum came in and voted. There isn't a single mafia on the love1another lynch list. At this point, Bill Murray should be viewed as almost certainly not mafia."

Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.

Well then, let's see what this means.

Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.

So, who benefits from risk's death?
1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching.
2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum.
3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly.
4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him.
5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me.
6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.

I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.

So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +

However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following:
1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum
2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum
3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself
4) Explanations of why you think they are town
5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was

If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.

This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.

I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.

And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:

He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity:

Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread.
A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself.

Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something.

Once again a filler post.

And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.

While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet.

You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out".
I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes.

His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise.

Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.

Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh.

Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.

Seems scummy to me, but I didn't make any push for him today as I didn't believe there was enough posted by him yet to give us any leads if he flips red, nor enough posts to make a solid case against him. These posts largely sum up my thoughts on him so far:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558&currentpage=26#518
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558&currentpage=29#577
His cases made so far have been questionable to say the least. Also, wtf is this about? Is this actually supposed to be a defense of any kind?
He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up.

Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala:
When considered with this post of Chocolate's:

His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes. Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean.

My short summary from earlier:

Now to add to it. From him:

If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that.
Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this:
He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it. He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps.
Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all.
I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this