Lord of the Rings Mafia
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Given this, however, this plan would probably only be effective for the first few 'passes' and perhaps near the end of the game when town circles become more clear. The risk after the first few days that the person holding the ring is killed, or has the ring stolen (which is a possible role according to the OP) makes the plan ineffective. Therefore, I think that such a plan should work for the first 2 or 3 days to confirm at least one or two people. Any thoughts or ideas about this? I haven't fully fleshed this out yet (i.e. the possibility of fake claims is strong), but its probably a better discussion than the arbitrary finger-pointing going on at the moment. | ||
TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On September 17 2011 13:37 chaos13 wrote: Nope. The entire content of his post was all based on game mechanics. Game mechanics reveal zero about a player's alignment, so if you give people town cred for posting that, the whole mafia team is going to do it and pretty soon you're completely fucked. ... Anymore discussion about this is wasted. Starting now look at some of the posts people have made, try to figure out what the intent of them is. Ask people questions. Scum hate being asked what they think of the alignment of their scumbuddies, they want to keep to the shadows. Let's not give them what they want. You make a fair point about how Radfield's post was more based upon game mechanics than any actual analysis. However, you follow this up with a summary of some rather obvious conclusions derived from the thread and some generic advice of your own! I would love to see you 'ask people questions' and figure out the intent of their posts as well. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 17 2011 14:57 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I'm not sure if you realise it or not but that plan sounds awfully anti-town. How do we guarantee that even those 1-3 people can pass the ring in the first place? And even if they can, how does that confirm anybody? In this game, only people with roles that relate to the ring should bother searching for it secretly, and if the ring is passed it will either be the fruits of their efforts or a complete accident. As for the effects of the ring, there is no real way to find out, the only people that know are the ring bearers and mentioning that you have it/explaining what it does is virtually ensuring you get killed overnight in the hopes that you can't pass it. First, if the players in question cannot pass the ring, then the plan does not go into effect. A player only announces that they had the ring in the previous turn. If they can't pass it on, they stay silent and we are none the wiser. Second, given Radfield's argument that evil players probably don't have the mechanic to pass the ring (otherwise they would pass it amongst themselves), if we can get two successive passes, that would confirm at least one player. The danger of course is passing to a mafia player, but that probability initially is small. At any rate, I think it is pretty likely that the ring will worm into non-town hands (whether 3rd party or mafia) given that non-town players will constantly search and probe every turn. There's no way to comprehensively prevent them from getting the ring, therefore, why not get some benefit to it. Finally, another point that can be made is that the player who passes on the ring and reveals themselves can also reveal what the ring does. Given that every player already covets it, it would be nice to at least have that information. | ||
TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On September 17 2011 15:10 Ciryandor wrote: Why would they have to expose themselves? Given the fact that the Ring more likely than not provides some sort of power according to one's stature/role; any scum that have an interest in it would take the first opportunity to kill the bearer so they could claim it for their own in order to enhance their powers; and one could easily take it by force if someone claims it after getting passed on and not state that they passed it on as well. Your insistence in putting the ring-bearer as of now into the open with this strategy is something that merits scrutiny, it distracts the Forces of Good getting at less active players by attracting attention to you if you are town, but I have a vibe you have scummy tendencies. I divided your posts into three parts. (1) My point is that the only time a person ever claims is if they have passed the ring on to another player. They don't reveal who that other player is. The mafia don't know who that second player is. (2) Sorry. I don't quite understand what you are getting at here. You wouldn't claim that you just got the ring. The key is that if two successive passes are done - then we have two players who can confirm each other. (i.e. player 1 says that he did pass it to player 2 on turn x and player 2 confirms this). (3) At least my plan is generating important discussion compared to the silly banter thats currently going on. If someone else would like to generate serious discussion, I would invite them to do so. | ||
TranceStorm
1616 Posts
But, wouldn't it be a good idea to set the rule that if a player does ever pass on the ring, they reveal its powers? We already know that everyone wants the ring (both town and non-town) so I think it would be beneficial to town discussion to know the ring powers. (if they don't change like you fear they might). | ||
TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On September 17 2011 15:36 Cyber_Cheese wrote: So basically you want people to say "I had the ring guys, I managed to pass it off, but I'm not saying to who" and maybe list it's effects? We can't be sure evil players can't pass the ring, and if the person who claimed to have got rid of it was telling the truth or not. There is way too much uncertainty, and I believe only a non-town party would be trying to push a bad plan to get the ring Unless you can come up with a really good reason you care so much about the ring bearer ##Vote TranceStorm I don't understand why someone saying 'I had the ring guys, I managed to pass it off, but I'm not saying to who' would be that harmful. If they do so, they can also reveal what the ring does which reduces much of the speculation about what the ring actually does and how it affects the game. I agree that there is uncertainty. That's why I dropped the whole 'chain' part. I see that it is far too risky and I assumed to much. But having one player (who can choose to do this or not and specifically when they want to do so as well) claim after passing the ring on and telling the town about the ring's effects would help. Of course, this would cause alot of scrutiny, but that would be no different from when any other person claims a role. And if you believe that I'm scum, that's fine, but you would be making an incorrect choice. In the end, it was simply an idea I had to bounce around ideas. Did our discussion harm the town? No it didn't. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 17 2011 15:43 GreYMisT wrote: I think that the powers of the ring should be treated sort of like a DTs checklist from what I understand. Keep your checks hidden until you fill its nessesary to come out to the town as a DT and provide nessesary information. Likewise with the ring. keep the fact that you have/had it hidden, but If the town enters a situation where that knowledge would be helpful, reveal it with the knowledge that you now have a giant target painted on your head. Hmm. Valid points, but I think the reason why the DT's stay hidden is because they retain their power (i.e. they can continue using their power and don't reveal themselves until at the last moment). However, with the ring holder - once they give it up, they can't use that power again. That means that the ring's power can be revealed without too much consequence. Anyways, off to sleep for me, I'll deal with the complaints and criticisms tomorrow. :o) | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 18 2011 02:24 iGrok wrote: Greymist's thing is not something to lynch for, but it is something to remember in the future. But he is someone to keep an eye on. I think whoever said WBG is probably gollum with a post restriction is right. But Drazerk has my biggest suspicions today, and lynching him will also give us the most information so far, both about greymist and the others who jumped on him. So, ##Vote Drazerk This is iGrok's only contribution to the thread at the moment. Having played with iGrok in one game before, he was much more active at the beginning of the game and tried to reason his votes better than this (he was godfather though haha). Nevertheless, I would love to hear more from you, iGrok about your thoughts about what is going on. Currently, he seems to be slipping by relatively unnoticed. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 19 2011 00:25 xtfftc wrote: Most of the lynch targets we have at the moment are the typical loud-mouthed /sloppy townies that tend to get lynched on Day 1 while mafia keeps a low profile. More importantly, because mafia isn't put under any pressure whatsoever and therefore doesn't reveal any information that might be useful to us in the process. So no, I don't want to pick someone random. I said that I'd rather pick a random player out of the remaining 27 than one of these 3 because lynching them would give us absolutely nothing. I can't vote for Jackal for his ring idea, sorry. I will start reviewing the case against DrH and I didn't see anything new from WBG to change my initial poistion on him. And I would like to apologise for not being as active as I should have today. I have finally assembled my PC and will play properly from now on. And I hope that you will take into account that I mentioned that I'm moving to another country before roles were assigned. Nevertheless, in Day 2 we should pay specific attention to those who didn't post a lot on Day 1 but become more active during Night 1 to hit the 5 posts per cycle quota. This post rang so many alarm bells in my head. First off, its so incredibly neutral. In the first paragraph, you state a generic statement that doesn't mean very much. And your defense of your earlier quote still doesn't make any sense, 'rather pick a random player out of the remaining 27' is still a random pick. The next paragraph is killer, you articulate why you can't vote for certain people and justify your vote for WBG with little to no justification at all. It provides nothing of your analysis of them and nothing of your thoughts of your thread. It makes me think that you really don't want to reveal your thoughts on the thread. Finally, you apologize when there is literally 0 pressure at you at all. If what you say is true, that's fine, you would simply come back and post more on day 2 and the following days and people wouldn't be too suspicious of that. Why would you apologize for something which hasn't even been picked up on? I expect far more activity from you in the coming days as you say that you will do, but for the moment I FOS xtfftc. Given that i probably can't lead a lynch on you today, I will rather vote for a more fitting candidate today and make sure that I keep an eye on you. | ||
TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Starting with WBG, his behavior has been quite erratic and he is attacking a large number of people. Nevertheless, I think he is making some reasonable arguments through the last few pages - pointing out suspicious behavior and errors in certain people's logic. Jackal has made a blatantly incorrect statement which has been caught out and he hasn't made a move to defend himself either. This is very troubling as well - but, it could simply be a mistake on his part where he failed to recognize the rules of the game. Nevertheless, at least what distinguishes him from prplhz is that he gives some justification for his vote. What I dislike most about prplhz's vote is that he never actually justifies why he is voting for Jackal. Look at his vote post, he says: also i'd like jack to do some scumhunting 'cause he's apparently also a veteran of sort. since this drh thing is going nowhere i'm gonna switch to jack He follows up later with a defense of himself in which he says: "i'm saying i think that jack is scum and that's why i'm voting him but i'm very open to the possibility that he isn't". Very indecisive. Jackal's play has been extremely dodgy as well, but I think prplhz is the most probably scum. #Vote prplhz | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 19 2011 04:20 prplhz wrote: in case i didn't make it clear i thought that drh could do better and he was acting weird, that's why i voted him first. when that didn't catch on too well i switched to jack, another person who i thought should be doing a lot better. think it's too late for me to move my vote so i doubt i'm gonna do that. i have attacked just about 1 guy and only said that 3 people were scummy, i'm sure you can find other people who have thrown more accusations around 'cause that's not really too bad. i think most of all this voting me is because cyriander suddenly came out of nowhere and said i was a good guy and apparently i'm his pal or something, but you should really be questioning him instead 'cause that's very weird day1 after a couple of posts from me that i agree could be interpreted as scummy ... but this is too late and something that can be done tomorrow. i think people should switch their votes to wbg me and jack. i also want to tell sandroba and palmar that i have the eru-iluvatar-given ability to instantly kill them at my will if they don't start posting. You made a long analysis to justify why you voted for Dr. H. Then you changed to Jackal (after he had already received a couple of votes) saying that you wanted to pressure him. There is still no justification at all for you vote. Considering that you had already shown that you were willing to give analysis on other people, I find your vote super suspicious hence my vote. Now you say that it's too late for you to move your vote. You still haven't justified your vote at all, and are basically admitting that you didn't have one in the first place. | ||
TranceStorm
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You said "wrong thread -.- sorry" when you edited your defense post. That clearly is a lie, isn't it? | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 19 2011 07:29 prplhz wrote: @trancestorm why am i suddenly not good enough for you, why am i not still a better target for lynch than erandorr? you were one of the last votes on me too and now you're one of the last votes on erandorr, both of them with very unconvincing reasonable. it seems like you're just sheeping along. Ok, I will explain myself. At the moment that I had voted earlier, you were the best candidate out the three that were presented (WBG, you, and Jackal). I presented my case on why you were the best lynch candidate at the time. I still believe that some of your actions were scummy, particularly your initial vote for Jackal without much justification and your later refusal to back off of him - but now that a much better candidate has been given, clearly I should switch to him. I could say the same about you sheeping along as well. When you were holding your vote on Jackal, you said that you doubted that you would move it off. Now that a 'better candidate' has been found, you've moved off as well. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 19 2011 09:05 jcarlsoniv wrote: That was sort of the last nail in the coffin. If there were any people on the fence before that, the edit pushed them over the edge. But the bandwagon started before the edit. It's what pushed me to vote for him. I thought he was a better lynch choice than the other 3 options because he botched his defense up so badly and edited. It made me think that he had written something that he was trying to cover up. In hindsight, clearly he panicked or something after getting accused but I didn't have that luxury when voting. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 19 2011 09:57 wherebugsgo wrote: The one that involves you telling people to give me the ring day 1 (when it's outlined in the OP that the ring may only pass hands at night) and also to lynch me at the same time, coupled with the fact that there were likely multiple scum on my wagon, meaning if I were to receive the ring (and not die) and then be lynched the ring would be sent to one of my voters. AKA scum. That case. I would like to know why you said that as well Jackal. Did you not read the OP or something? | ||
TranceStorm
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I suppose your primary complaint against me is that I am making a large deal out of a number of smaller things. However, that is naturally what analysis does. When you analyze another player, you take into consideration what their motives are for saying each and every thing. Therefore, little things do get blown up all the time because analysis is designed to extrapolate larger things from a person's small behavior. Sometimes its spot-on, other times it misses the mark completely (i.e. the Errandor lynch which I bought into incorrectly). To say that someone is acting scummy because they are making large deals out of small things is not a valid statement. The reason why I suspected you in the first place was because you were being overly neutral and apologizing for lack of activity (which is something I always find suspicious). However, just like I said in my original post "expect far more activity from you in the coming days as you say that you will do", if you provide good analysis on Helvetica and Chaos13, then my suspicion will definitely decrease. Finally, you accuse me of bandwagoning onto an easy target of Errandor - but that was because I believed that Errandor was a better lynch than any of the others due to his slip-up. Its funny how many people are coming out saying that "Obviously Errandor was a bad lynch blah blah blah" when the only voice of opposition at the time was (I think) Navillus. If I missed any of your points, please bring them up again. | ||
TranceStorm
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One of the things about him is that he doesn't contribute all too much in any of the games he plays - and I've taken a look through a few of his games where he was town. Furthermore, despite being really wishy-washy about all of the candidates in question, he did place doubts on Dr. H (not very strongly, but nevertheless he did express discomfort with Dr. H). Furthermore, Dr. H at one point specifically says "Vain is definitely being antagonistic and the fact that he slipped under the radar for such bad posting isn't a good sign." He's a curious case but I don't think he is scum. | ||
TranceStorm
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You really have been tunneling me all game, so I will respond to some of your arguments. I made a bad plan, I get it. We've already established that. It was an idea I had and I asked for input from other people to improve the plan, instead, everyone decided to say the plan was a bad idea so I dropped it. Why are you focusing only on Dr. H's response to the plan? A dismissive response says absolutely nothing at all. For example, I am making a dismissive statement about your arguments; does that mean we are secretly cooperating with each other? There were many other responses saying that it was bad. That takes up a majority of your large post. Then you say that I jumped onto different bandwagons until I settled on the easy target of Errandor. Take a minute to think about that. If I were mafia, I would already know that prplhz was a townie and could keep my vote on him and pretend to be afk knowing that a townie would be lynched on day 1. After Errandor got lynched, I could stand around and shout "damn! I wasn't there to stop the lynch! Of course Errandor was innocent" (like many people did say). Moving from prplhz only increased the suspicion on me, something which a mafia would not do (which is why I don't suspect OriginalName either, since he moved in the same way that I did). | ||
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On September 21 2011 05:46 GreYMisT wrote: Cyber's post above promted me to look back over trace's posts, and I found these two gems. most notably with regards to his plan for confirming townies. Notice how in this post he acknowledges the potential flaws and the fact that it is incompete a respectfull manner towards DrH. You are selectively choosing quotes here. Look through my posts again. I rearticulate a point that I feel was valid against his criticism i.e. the idea that a person who has had the ring in the past should reveal its abilities. In fact, I act in the same way towards you and Cyber_Cheese as well agreeing with you when you articulate certain points while adding my own input. Simply because I responded to Dr. H does not mean we were working together. | ||
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On September 21 2011 06:05 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The last time I let an anti-town plan slip, it was my first game in Cosmic Horror mafia, and I changed MrWiggles suggestion into a good one while siding against TheFerryman who called him out on it. I'm not making the same mistake twice. For that matter, if you were mafia, why did you kill or attempt to kill the other day 1 suspects? I'm iffy on that whole section of the game. Until Dr. H posted with a negative light on your plan, you stuck by it and attempted to work on it, and then it was suddenly a thing to be left in the past. First off, so is your argument that I intentionally posted a bad plan so that Dr. H would be in a good light? That seems to be a very infeasible explanation for posting a plan in the first place. It's because I had a genuine idea which I believed would work. Second, I am not aware at all of what happened in your previous games, but I will maintain that proposing ideas for the town to debate about is not an anti-town measure. Before I made my proposal there was absolutely no discussion about really important issues. People were merely speculating about other unimportant things (which mafia loves to feed as you said). Because I proposed a plan, there became more focus in the town's initiative (partly helped by WBG's antics). Mafia would be fine leaving the town in the discussions that existed before my plan came around. I obviously can't account for why the mafia decided to target the people they did last night, but I will maintain that my vote switch from prplhz to Errandor would not be a move made by someone with mafia motivations. And finally, I had revised the 'plan' after Dr. H's post - from the 'chain' idea to that of the 'reveal what the ring does' idea after multiple people expressed displeasure. It wasn't only Dr. H's reasoning that convinced me to give up the plan, it was the fact that I realized that no one was going to accept my logic afterwards. | ||
TranceStorm
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On September 21 2011 06:48 Cyber_Cheese wrote: The first point I believe to be an unexpected side-effect that accidentally benefitted you. The second was merely to point out that these things do happen and that not every bad plan should be dismissed so easily. The voting and mafia's targeting seems too open to interpretation to be relied on here. What possible reasons would 'noone accept your logic afterwards' for? If no one likes an idea, it's because it was ill-thought through. My argument here is it required your scum buddy to post before you realised just how ill-thought through it was. Ok - your argument is something that I cannot convince you otherwise of. Given that there is no way for me to prove to you that it was not a "scum buddy's" intervention which cause me to drop my plan, I suppose that's an argument that you'll have to take in good faith. There's absolutely no way to prove or disprove what my motivations were for posting that so I'll just leave it at that. I am not scum, but if you continue to believe that, I can't argue much more against that. In the meantime, I'll go analyze some other players. | ||
TranceStorm
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If you filter through his posts, he says that he is trying to change his playstyle to become less spammy. This reminded me of Ver's Mafia XXX analysis (stickied in the TL mafia forum) where youngminii proclaims that his lack of activity has been because of his efforts to become less spammy. I find it a convenient explanation for his lack of analysis on most of the people in the thread. What is critical to me is that supersoft has not interacted with the thread at all throughout the game - repeatedly giving excuses for his non-actions. At one point, supersoft says this: On September 19 2011 07:58 supersoft wrote: lol whatever! i filtered prplhz and erandorr and. both dont seem very scummy to me. i think chaoser and igrok are far more scummy right now. i'll get internet access in my hotel where i stay tomorrow and will catch up. if i have to decide between both, maybe erandorr is a little bit scummier. but really, this post edit lie is straNge, but it doesnt give much information about his alignment... However, he never posts the next day except once to respond to an accusation against himself where he says that he will 'kick the scumteam's ass'. That's it. Despite saying that he would catch up and everything, he doesn't do so other than this one post. I don't know what's going on with supersoft's personal life, but he seems to be making tons of excuses to cover up his actions. Whether it be the fact that he's trying to cut down on spamminess, he's on the road, he's drunk, will only have hotel internet the next day, is working in Berlin - it seems that he is always trying to reduce his ability to give real analysis on players. Indeed, when chaos13 picks up on his wishywashiness and his slight contradictions, supersoft responds with the post containing one of his various excuses. Granted, there isn't much evidence from supersoft's posts, but I feel that supersoft's lack of behavior qualifies him as scum. He is being just as scummy as iGrok at the moment. | ||
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On September 21 2011 07:58 Radfield wrote: Trancestorm, supersoft said he would be away until wednesday. Shelf your case for now and look at him in two days. He never explicitly said that he wouldn't be able to post until wednesday. But I can give him leeway for right now until Thursday. Also, does anyone else feel disquieted by the fact that iGrok refuses to respond to any of the arguments leveled against him (and change his behavior at all)? | ||
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3. Special abilities. Some players may have the ability to steal The Ring without using lethal force. I don't know how good that would turn out to be. | ||
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On September 21 2011 11:57 iGrok wrote: ...because gandalf was one. And my safe claim was Celeborn, Lord of Lothlórien I'm not sure if you missed my earlier comment, but here it is again: There is nothing that prevents someone from stealing the ring from you (and that role is heavily implied in the OP). At that point you no longer remain bulletproof and I assume that then bad things will happen. Of course, whether you die or not doesn't matter to the town, but having the ring in the wrong hands probably shouldn't happen (as many people were quite willing to tell me a few days ago). | ||
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I'm also inclined to believe that syllogism wasn't being truthful about being hit by a day vig. We can now see that a day vig has to write "##Cleave target" (or whatever kill command they have) - nobody did that to syllogism. I don't quite understand why he did that though. | ||
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On September 22 2011 03:32 Drazerk wrote: Because it was obvious to me I would not survive another cycle anyway so I may as well stop two easy lynches. What the hell? That's terrible reasoning. Why would you not be able to survive another cycle? Did you really think the mafia would target you or something? | ||
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On September 22 2011 04:48 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Only because we seem to be concerning ourselves with the third parties, don't forget the scum kp usually goes down as they die, and we can try and find one today to kill. If iGrok's kill isn't on the person we want it on, we lynch him tomorrow and he loses. We don't have to hand over the ring and seal the deal he proposed, he's going to value his survival and eventual victory more than he will value the spite of wasting his kp on one of us. There's a slight problem with this scenario. The issue is that if iGrok's kill goes off on the wrong target, then lynching him would waste a valuable lynch that would be used for another target. (Much like how lynching him now would waste a potential lynch - the difference is that he can't act in any way in the future). iGrok's advantage to the town is that he can search for two very specific targets and has a single night kill which could be used in any way, but besides that he becomes quite useless. | ||
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On September 22 2011 05:26 Radfield wrote: If iGrok is scum, then he'll be confirmed scum by tomorrow and we lynch him then. How do we will he be confirmed scum? | ||
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On September 22 2011 05:42 Radfield wrote: If he is scum he needs to follow through with the shot we direct in order to stay clean for tomorrow. If he does not, then he gets lynched. If he claims he was 'roleblocked' then he gets lynched. If for any reason his target does not die, he gets lynched. If the target we choose is a townie, and scum kill him, AND his flavour comes up with 'consumed by shadow and flame etc" then so be it, as we are successfully directing scum's targets. If scum want to act as a double lynch for us, so much the better. If anyone else ever dies by the same flavour, or if the KP isn't matching up, we lynch him. It's like in PYP1/2 when scum got the compvig. IT DOESN"T MATTER AS LONG AS WE ARE DIRECTING THE SHOTS. Well that sounds reasonable. I am concerned about how the town is supposed to direct iGrok's night kill when we are divided as is though. Nevertheless, I'll look between Jackal and Palmar now. | ||
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My vote will be going to Jackal right now. | ||
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On September 22 2011 07:16 prplhz wrote: hey TranceStorm why are you ghost voting on the bandwagon and why are you always one of the last guys to jump on the bandwagon? Because I have trouble making voting decisions? Reading between the cases of Palmar and Jackal does take time you know. Anyways, why don't you withhold judgment until after the lynch - you can attack me all you want if I'm wrong about Jackal. | ||
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Radfield responded with this post here - saying that supersoft would be away for the time being. What was curious was that Radfield didn't spend any time at any of the accusations on the periphery players, but chose to respond specifically to my accusation. Whats also curious was that supersoft never explicitly said that he would be away until Wednesday - he said that he was merely working in Berlin until Wednesday (and showed that he could still communicate from his hotel). Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but perhaps Radfield slipped here picking up on something he read from the mafia QT? Anyways, supersoft has done nothing to alleviate my suspicions with his current activity so I will continue to view him as mafia. I'll join the rest of your discussions in just a minute. | ||
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Poison to the Ears: Each night phase you may choose a target to communicate with privately over the next day phase. Your target will not be given your identity nor your alignment. You will not be given your target’s role nor alignment. I will provide you with the link to your Quicktopic at the start of the day phase. That means that he chose someone on night 1 and talked to them on day 2. This is also the same for the Pippin role meaning that Wiggles didn't talk to anyone either. | ||
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On September 23 2011 09:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: Actually, TS, i find u more scum than supersoft. Ok, I will try to convince you otherwise then. | ||
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Well you have to raise an argument against me. Otherwise its just: You: "I think you are scum". Me: "I'm not". | ||
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On September 23 2011 10:10 Pyo wrote: But is it common for town to get multiple shots like that? Seems a little overpowered... I was only thinking it was a 3rd party SK since it seemed like radfield was "green" to a lot of people so far. Sandroba had at least two shots and also had the ability to get a shot refunded if he hit a mafia. | ||
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Think about it, if you had found a Maia through your investigations, you would come out and say "I found out that x was Maia" at the beginning of the day. Instead what iGrok did was say "I won't tell you who it is" - but then he later switches to "yeah, it was ON" when a few other players were attacking OriginalName at the time. Finally, I find it strange that iGrok 'chose to investigate' OriginalName when his FOS in the previous day was Palmar. Would you not want to confirm your suspicions? | ||
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On September 25 2011 06:13 Pyo wrote: Are you serious? Because that is absolutely retarded... The DT would definitely come under a lot of scrutiny, but at least they wouldn't run into iGrok's issue of having claimed an untrustworthy 3rd party and said something like "I won't tell you who I found unless you guys stop my lynch". | ||
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On September 26 2011 08:20 Drazerk wrote: There is 4 KP in place yes. although it could be - 1 super soft 1 me 1 prplhz ( Unblockable ) 1 you That makes no sense. On night 2 mafia killed syllogism and sandroba (Vain was modkilled). That means a KP of at least 2. Yet somehow, their KP jumped substantially higher despite the fact that they lost 2 mafia members. | ||
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On September 26 2011 08:30 Palmar wrote: oh wait, the messages are mafia right? The last one said that Jcarl was Ugluk and we know who that turned out to be. Its probably best to ignore them for the time being. | ||
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On September 26 2011 08:26 Palmar wrote: I need to re-read them all again to decide that. Initially I think Kita is the safest lynch. His ability is very... weird, it's a version of tracker that's very seldom in play, and generally the blue roles have been much more notable characters than that elf he claimed. But its even weirder to play as mafia. Remember that he correctly discerned that chaoser had killed someone. That seems to be more of a town ability than a mafia one. I don't understand why a mafia character would have the ability to simply search for other people who have killed. | ||
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On September 26 2011 08:59 Drazerk wrote: prplhz and chaoser at least one took a hit last night but I don't know which. more likely that prplhz was double stacked though I must not have been reading properly throughout the thread, but you can protect two people in one night? | ||
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I'm very confused about the votes for kitaman. Kitaman has proven that he has some form of a tracking role and that generally associates itself with a town-aligned role. I don't think its likely at all that mafia would have a tracker who can tell who else can kill. I agree with the assessment that chaoser is a 3rd party killer due to the suspicious nature of his role claim and because he eventually shot Radfield (no one counter-claimed him). I'm not even sure if he has denied that role. Given our experience with people who have been '3rd parties', I'm rather more inclined to bumping them off rather than uncertain players. | ||
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On September 27 2011 13:53 chaoser wrote: @TranceStorm kitaman on iGrok: iGrok claims third party. Kitaman says "Don't kill him, give him strict instructions and if he doesn't follow them, lynch him." iGrok proceeds to not follow said instructions. kitaman never gets on his case and votes for me first and only changes later to iGrok. kitaman on chaoser: I claim I killed a mafia and have not only the breadcrumbs to back it up but also no one counterclaims. I never claim third party. "His powers don't make sense as a townie, he's third party, lynch him!" What do you think about the discrepancies between these two reactions? Oh its a discrepancy alright, but I still can't reconcile his 'tracking' ability with that of a mafia player. Furthermore, the Kitaman on iGrok quote came when Radfield was busily roping us along to divert the lynch from iGrok to Jackal. I myself fell into a similar state where on one day I was thinking "oh great, we can control iGrok" to saying "iGrok cannot live any longer". Apparently kitaman also has the ability to check whatever action a person did during the night as implied by his quote here: The person I checked did not perform a kill last night. I won't say whether or not they performed a different action, because there is no reason to give scum information about who might be blue or vanilla townie. I'd give him leeway for the time being. | ||
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On September 25 2011 03:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Bottom line first, of course it's suspicious, that doesn't make it impossible. That claim wasn't one of the things that convinced me, because it likely was convenient lie. I wouldn't even put it past him to have found the real Saruman and lied about who rather than be forced out of that information so far from the lynch. Chaoser attacked the person who was leading the town best, The fact Radfield flipped scum doesn't necessarily excuse that. I'm not sure about iGrok's reasoning, but learning he could be blocked changed things. The rest of the difference between the two of them in my eyes is related to their claims. Chaoser used a claim that sounded relatively safe, but had many mistakes like Boromir as a neutral party when he was party of the fellowship and a 'win with town' victory condition. iGrok's is nothing near safe and is relatively more believable. Cyber_cheese has defended iGrok throughout the game. Both chaoser and iGrok made suspicious remarks in their claims that were pointed out. However, chaoser has the saving grace of having shot Radfield (no one has counter-claimed) yet Cyber_Cheese says its a better idea to knock off chaoser and has earlier argued for 'controlling' iGrok as well. | ||
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On September 27 2011 14:27 chaoser wrote: Kitaman has yet to name his role like he asked me to. Would giving the name of your character really be that advantageous to mafia? Also, I find it interesting that kitaman basically claimed a blue role on Day 3 and yet mafia didn't kill him, instead going for a kill on supersoft, someone that they didn't know was blue or not. Why let a tracker, even a gimped tracker survive, especially someone like kitaman who is a decent vet town player survive? One track on a mafia pulling off a kill would immediately fuck them over. He did claim that his role was "Madril, Ranger of Ithilien". But the supersoft dying instead of him is very fishy. Not even getting a roleblock seems to be very suspicious for a player who is the only player who has revealed that he has the ability to identify (somewhat) who the mafia are. | ||
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On September 28 2011 00:45 kitaman27 wrote: There were 20+ players in the game. Its unreasonable to think I would just risk a tracker claim and hope I was right. If the 1/20+ odds don't go my way, then I'm lynched for lying. The fact is, I am a tracker and I wasn't lying. As for being a mafia tracker, I don't recall ever playing in a game where scum could track people. Even it its possible, 99% of the time, the tracker is town aligned. Don't overthink this. Also, isn't it convenient that nobody else is committing one way or another until they see where the safe lynch is? People like draz have completely disappeared. I really really want to believe that kitaman is mafia, but this is the stumbling block for me. I find it super suspicious that the one information role who has scum-hunting abilities was not even touched by the mafia who decided to hit an assortment of other players instead. But at the same time, kitaman did call out chaoser correctly, and I don't think a tracker would be useful at all in the hands of mafia. Chaoser makes some arguments about how kitaman made a massive gamble and what not, but that's got a really really low chance of success (must less than even iGrok's gamble) and I don't think the mafia would take that risk. On the basis of his role itself, I think kitaman is not mafia. | ||
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On September 28 2011 05:45 chaoser wrote: I claimed DT as mafia in a game where a tracker, a watcher, and two other DTs were out in the open. Many people sheeped me into letting the mafia win. Let's not have that happen again. Yeah but kitaman essentially confirmed his powers as tracker - not like in your previous instances. When he called you out, only 3 people had been killed that night (not including modkills). That means that he only had a 3/20ish chance of picking out the right person if he was just guessing. Not likely in my opinion. Its far more likely that he's not lying about his abilities. | ||
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On September 28 2011 05:52 chaoser wrote: Radfield, who was mafia, already thought I was a third party. Him announcing it so late is also due to the fact that he was deciding on whether he wanted to do it or not. He could have claimed he tracked me early right after the flip. He waited 7 hours until he did it and when asked why he said "he wanted to see what I was going to do" except he never asks me any questions before that, never talks to me before that. It make no sense. Yeah but waiting for 7 hours doesn't change the fact that there is still only a 3/20 chance of being correct. And if he were mafia, it would be even lower because he would have had to identify the vig/3rd party. Regardless of his suspicious actions, the fact that he made that correct call is so unlikely if he were mafia. | ||
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In light of that, I think that neither of the two are good lynches. Cyber_Cheese is my best bet at the moment because of his 'defense' of iGrok - preferring to lynch ON and chaoser to iGrok. | ||
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On September 28 2011 07:06 Drazerk wrote: You guys are really going to spread the votes more? >.> It's also a bit of an issue that I'm not confident at all in lynching Palmar or ON. Let me reread the arguments about ON first | ||
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On September 28 2011 07:42 kitaman27 wrote: Not a single person is able to counter claim that Radfield was in contact with me. There is no way Radfield would contact his own teammate on night one. EVERYONE SHOULD BE SWITCHING TO CHAOSER. Because that person might have died on the same night as Radfield :/. But I have no clue why you chose this time to post all of that when you could have posted that a few hours back to prove your innocence. | ||
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On September 28 2011 07:53 chaoser wrote: Post parts of the QT and I'll vote ON. Else it's stays on you Not ON, kitaman said that he checked him - and he didn't visit anyone last night. | ||
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On September 28 2011 09:04 heist wrote: Just look at this list: Greymist raynpelikoneet jcarlsoniv TranceStorm Out of these 4, at least 1 is mafia. Bet on it. The vote switch was to save kitaman - who confirmed himself as town tracker. I forget who suggested ON, but eventually kitaman decided to vote for him so we followed to save kitaman. | ||
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On September 29 2011 11:26 chaoser wrote: I also don't mind actual claiming, I am: Theon Greyjoy, the Kraken's heir, previously the SK Treasure Hunter now the Vanilla Townie I was going to write an epic win post too... Are you trolling us or something? Why on earth would a character from another story (not to mention the fact that he isn't one of the major major characters) be put in a theme game? That makes absolutely 0 sense. I know you've 'breadcrumbed' this, but why would another a character from another universe be introduced as a 3rd party looking for the ring? | ||
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On September 27 2011 21:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I noteably didn't want to kill either, I just wanted to kill the one who claimed to have more kp first. I stick by Palmar being our best lynch. Before I was drawn into the whole kitaman lynch thing, I made an argument against Cyber_Cheese about his defense of iGrok. He says that he only wanted to kill the one who 'claimed to have more kp first'. But, that's not what he said earlier at all. Read the quoted part and you will notice that said multiple contradictory things. | ||
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On September 30 2011 03:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote: GGQ appeared alongside me in the hasn't last minute switched poll, and has done worse than Pyo this game. After Drazerk pointed out that Trance in fact wasn't the only person to be onboard every lynch, I made an excel sheet and pointed out interesting things I saw to raise discussion. I admitted to that group looking the scummiest, which you conveniently overlook, and of Pyo and GGQ, I find GGQ worse, so he made the cut. The four people that voted along side Radfield in both his lynches were: TranceStorm Drazerk OriginalName Kitaman27 And I'm willing to bet they aren't all town. ##Vote TranceStorm First off, the first lynch doesn't prove anything at all. All 4 of the candidates were later shown to be townie - therefore, it doesn't prove or disprove scum motivations to change from one candidate to the other. Therefore, you'd have to expand your list a bit to look at the second lynch. Funny enough, on the second lynch, you'd think that iGrok would have voted with Radfield if he was scum. Its convenient that his vote was on a Palmar as was yours. | ||
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You say that I always vote late - that is true - but I will say that I like to take time to consider my choices before voting. I was wrong about Errandor (I had thought he lied, editing out a massive text wall does seem suspicious - imagine if any of us did that right now) and Jackal. But if I had not stayed late with my vote, I was able to save kitaman (who was confirmed town) from the mislynch. | ||
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Furthermore, think for a moment where my votes came in on both of the those lynches. They both came in at times when the person who I voted for had a large chance of being lynched. If I truly was mafia, wouldn't I have simply said "I don't feel comfortable about this lynch" and voted for another candidate to appear safer? Why would I knowingly vote for the townie candidate in both days 1 and 2 when people had already pointed out the suspicion revolving around my plan? | ||
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On October 01 2011 06:52 chaoser wrote: Let's just say he's eased up a lot on posting since SC2 came out and he's still got you beat on average posts per X Average Posts Per Day 35.37 Average Posts Per Week 247.59 My Average Posts Per Day is 0.73 - haha. That takes real stamina to reach that high of a postcount. | ||
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On October 02 2011 18:48 heist wrote: If it really comes down to the wire I have an iron claim. Imagine a LOTR character that HAS to be in this game simply for their importance. That's me. mr bigshsot. so ya no use voting for me. oh ya whos the other medic? confirmed townie foor sure. Mig I wish you the best in all your endeavors. That doesn't change much at all. For example, I will claim right now by saying that I am Théoden, King of Rohan, Vanilla Townie. He's a pretty important role. Does that change your opinion at all of me? No it doesn't prove whether I am or not mafia. | ||
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On October 03 2011 22:46 chaoser wrote: 2011-2012 football (soccer) thread 1752 68685 Oct 03, 2011 Occupy Wall Street 512 35888 Oct 03, 2011 2011-2012 football (soccer) thread 1752 68685 Oct 03, 2011 Lord of the Rings Mafia 2830 2829 Oct 03, 2011 TS is apparently ok with not posting here but active and on TL to be posting on other threads. If everyone is willing, I'd be willing to lynch him today and make mafia choose between either shooting into two medics and me or shooting the last unconfirmed townie. Look at the timestamps of those posts. Nothing happened between the time that I posted on this thread and the two other threads I posted in. Now something has happened and I will respond to posts now. | ||
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On October 04 2011 00:17 chaoser wrote: I should have voted you earlier lol, like drazerk says, MAGIC! Don't pull that argument against me - Regardless of when you would have made your arguments, I would have responded around now. What would be the point in lurking while heist and Cyber_Cheese were throwing around their claims? | ||
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On October 04 2011 00:41 chaoser wrote: 22. Cyber_Cheese 5. kitaman27 30. TranceStorm 6. GGQ We have a 3/4 chance to lynch mafia in this group. Well I can't say anything against that - other than one of kitaman / heist's claim must have been a lie because I can say for certain that I am not mafia. Unfortunately, I can't concretely prove that I am not mafia because I don't have a power role like everyone else seems to have - but I will reiterate - Cyber_Cheese is definitely mafia. He makes a bogus claim about a role that has severe defects and most probably would have died if the powers he ascribed to that role were true. | ||
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Any particular reason why you keep cycling through candidates? | ||
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I'll make a decision about whether or not kitaman is scum or not - I stand by the argument that him picking chaoser out of the blue is highly highly unlikely and the chat logs were very convincing as well. But I know that I am not mafia - therefore, at least one player among the four 'confirmeds' must also be mafia. And it is quite strange that the mafia never took the easy option in roleblocking Drazerk and shooting kita (or chaoser for that matter). | ||
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Before you say "but wait - TranceStorm changed his mind about kita" - it's because of necessity. The only possible option at the moment for me is to assume that both kita and GGQ are mafia. I still think it was very unlikely that kita guessed about chaoser - but maybe one of his powers enabled him to do so. I won't be around until around this time tomorrow because of midterm exams, but I would be willing to lynch either players. | ||
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Pretty clear to me that kitaman is mafia - using a farfetched idea that I had thrown around early to entice a vote for heist. At the very least, if you had gotten that guilty tracking result, you would have posted that before anything else (definitely before heist stated that he got roleblocked). kitaman did a good job in fooling me to believe that he actually was the tracker (well played), but his survival over the past few days definitely points to the fact that he must be mafia. | ||
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On October 06 2011 01:41 GGQ wrote: Right, so kitaman is obviously lying about heist, but why do you think that Trancestorm is town? From my perspective he has to be the last mafia. From my perspective, you must be the last mafia :o). | ||
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On October 06 2011 10:36 GGQ wrote: Well I've been trying to get mafia lynched all game, while you've come up as a suspect so many times it's a wonder you're still alive. Choice should be pretty obvious tomorrow. I voted for iGrok and Cyber_Cheese. You voted for iGrok and Cyber_Cheese. You've also come up a suspect quite a few times as well. | ||
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On October 09 2011 02:41 GGQ wrote: Chaoser, you need to seriously rethink what's going on here, because this is bullshit. The whole concept of lynching me because I've been voting for mafia is sheer insanity. I'm sorry I haven't had the time to be as active as you want but I've been doing what I can when I can. Actually look at Trancestorm's filter. Dude's been buddying mafia all over the place, flip-flopping left and right, he's like that picture of scum. Seriously, if you don't switch you are going to be very embarrassed. And at the same time, you've been lurking around this game - throwing a few accusations here and there when necessary - also a 'picture of scum'. At the end of the day we've made the same decisions to lynch the mafia - iGrok, Cyber_Cheese, and kita - so there isn't any difference there. You also have a habit of making a vote thats easily obscured by other people and disappearing later. Chaoser's argument makes quite a bit of sense to me. If you have been making these correct calls about mafia players, and given your status as a more experienced player, you would have been dead by now (or at least taken a few hits) - but you haven't at all. | ||
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On October 09 2011 02:42 GGQ wrote: Also, you may have noticed that nobody has yet claimed to be a certain axe-wielding dwarf. Do you really think Gimli isn't in the game? Doesn't make much difference at all. I'm Théoden but that doesn't change anything. Why don't you explicitly claim Gimli instead of implying it. | ||
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