EPTSome Mafia Game - Page 35
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On September 13 2011 13:24 BayonnetAnderson wrote: I survived a hit last night and was roleblocked. Judging by this WBG protected you tonight, and likely protected Zona last night. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
The rest of you we need everyone to claim. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I think Sandroba should be our lynch today, he's repeatedly promised to deliver and lurked, but he's done nothing that makes me even remotely consider the possibility of him being town. I'm not gonna vote until we get discussion though, if I vote and jackal is town and for some reason we're wrong, then mafia can hammer it. So hold your votes until we're sure what we wanna do. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
That person would be GGQ. Here is his filter http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=261732&user=38664 Take a quick look at it. A quick look is all you need. This guy is scum. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On September 13 2011 18:53 Palmar wrote: I know you're reading this Jackal, time to claim. The rest of you we need everyone to claim. I left for work after my last post so this is the first I've seen it. First off you're right on the voting. ##UNVOTE: Sandroba Secondly I'm not sure a mass claim atm is optimal. Zona appears to have been protected by WBG on night one. If we believe Bum he appears to have been protected last night. If we have no more protection roles a mass claim will probably just create a mass grave. I'm gonna wait for Zona to claim a shot on Bum before I get behind any mass claim scenarios. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
sandroba Jackal58 Palmar bumatlarge BayonnetAnderson GGQ Zona chaos13 xtfftc Mig I'd be ok with any of those marked red as a lynch. Of the others I'm leaning towards Zona as town. This is influenced by WBG flipping town. Of Bum, bayonnet, and Chaos13 I really have no clue atm. I suggest we all weigh in on Sandroba first. Yea or nay on his lynch today? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I would much prefer GGQ to sandroba. sand isn't playing to his usual meta, but that's the biggest part of the argument against him. His actions themselves aren't particularly telling of scumminess. I would also like to remind everyone of chaoser's DT claim in XLIV. Keep a healthy skepticism. Palmar, why did you check bum N1 instead of iGrok or GGQ? | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
Palmar, I don't understand why you'd repeatedly accuse me of "hardcore" lurking. I may not have a high post count in this thread but a lot of my posts could have easily been cut into smaller pieces to make me appear more active. Others have been lurking much more than me. Is it possible that WBG jailed a mafia on the first night and this is why there was only one KP? I'll check his posts for breadcrumbs and I'd recommend everyone else to do the same. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On September 13 2011 22:10 xtfftc wrote: Is it possible that WBG jailed a mafia on the first night and this is why there was only one KP? I'll check his posts for breadcrumbs and I'd recommend everyone else to do the same. Due to some alien physics you can't roleblock the Mafia kill though. | ||
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On September 13 2011 21:49 Jackal58 wrote: The way I see it. sandroba Jackal58 Palmar bumatlarge BayonnetAnderson GGQ Zona chaos13 xtfftc Mig I'd be ok with any of those marked red as a lynch. Of the others I'm leaning towards Zona as town. This is influenced by WBG flipping town. Of Bum, bayonnet, and Chaos13 I really have no clue atm. I suggest we all weigh in on Sandroba first. Yea or nay on his lynch today? You have Palmar in blue, suggesting you believe his claim, so do you think WBG was a miller or framed? From my perspective, what makes the most sense is that both Zona's and Palmar's claims are true and that Palmar is insane. This would mean that his inno on bumatlarge is actually a guilty, which would align with Zona's post yesterday about being shot because he breadcrumbed his shot on bumatlarge. In this case, the scum team is looking to me like bumatlarge, Mig, chaos13? and one more. Alternatively, Palmar's claim is fake and designed specifically to exploit the suspicion on bum to get him lynched. I think that's unlikely, though, why would Palmar bother with the insane part? My favourite lynch target atm is bumatlarge. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
But if Palmar's claim is fake it all fits. A lot of people are suspicious of him and now that Curu and WBG are dead and confirmed as townies, their repeatedly stated suspicions of Palmar might put him in the spotlight. So, he tries to achieve a mislynch that would probably win mafia the game. Moreover, he has been careful not to say too much in his analysis, so it's unlikely that he has incriminated fellow mafia and having him as confirmed red might not be too bad for them. And it's not like it's too big of a risk for him to get lynched. Claiming a DT would definitely attract additional attention to Palmar - as if there wasn't quite a lot already - but is unlikely to get him lynched immediately. He did not put himself in a situation that would lead to his lynch in case the information he gave us is wrong because he didn't give us any information whatsoever. What value does town get out of his claim? That there might be a framer or that perhaps Palmar is insane or that people got bussed. As if we didn't know that there's a ton of possibilities with this setup. So, maybe mafia framed WBG on Night 1 or Bum is mafia because he returned green - but we don't really know? Also, am I correct in assuming that a framed townie would return green to an insane DT? So perhaps Bum got framed...? Palmar is smart enough to consider the possible scenarios and realise that revealing his role would not help town. If he wanted protection, he could have claimed after the lynch. Also, his checks do not match his posts. He kept on defending Bum during Day 1 and checked him afterwards. Then he said he's "100% sure" on WBG being mafia before checking him. Let's say that Palmar is indeed a DT and was afraid of getting shot. Naturally, as soon as his role was revealed, everyone would start looking for breadcrumbs and see Palmar's "100%" as a proof that WBG is guilty. Although WBG sort of asked for this reply with his question (What chance do you give me of flipping scum?), so perhaps I'm reading too much into it. I'd appreciate other people's thoughts on both Palmar's claim and my reading of it. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Everyone should claim, what good would it do me to claim after the lynch? if the lynch is incorrect we're dead anyway? We're not playing some kind of a long-term game here now, we need to get it right today, what little information I have needs to be out there, same goes for the rest of you. I check people who are likely to stay alive (ie: not be shot by either mafia or vigis) and are hard to read or I have little experience with. And of course my checks don't match my posts, why would I bother analysing people I'm about to get an alignment check on? fuck it, you're probably scum. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On September 14 2011 00:21 xtfftc wrote: He kept on defending Bum during Day 1 and checked him afterwards. Oh nice, bonus points for lying, I said once that I was leaning town on Bum on day 1. That's not "keeping on defending" I did that day 2, and for a good damn reason... | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
1) Palmar is scum and Bum town. Makes some sense. 2) Bum is scum and Palmar is town. The odds of mafia framing wbg the night they shot him are simply ridiculous. That means Palmar is insane if really a DT. Palmar has to know this and if he was town he would be pushing for bum like a crazy man today, not suddenly deciding to go after me after he said yesterday he believed me. Doesn't make a lot of sense. Palmar just has no reason to assume bum got framed night one. Also not knowing about his sanity in the first place he would not be yelling bum is town before he confirmed it. 3) Both are scum. This makes the most sense, because palmar is not going after bum, which would make his story the most believable. 4)Both are town. For this to happen Bum needs to have been framed night one and palmar has to be behaving like an idiot as a DT. He keeps yelling Bum is town for no reason and somehow mafia doesn't pick up on this and shoot him. Not likely at all. Also I believe there is no roleblocker in this game. We have no claims so far and if you argue they have been shooting plus roleblocking people WBG was the rational roleblock for this night and we know his action went through. So no roleblockers for mafia and we have 2 vigs and a medic claims so far. They have no means to prevent a power role from claiming but if the medic wants to protect the power role he has to roleblock him and he can't do it 2 night in a row which is a clever little mechanic by Ace. But scum doesn't know this at first and leaving scum unable to counter a DT claim is not something Ace would do imo. I'll post my thought on everybody soon, aswell as huge analysis of both previous days. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On September 14 2011 01:18 sandroba wrote: I'm towny. Okay this claim possibly means 3 things: 1) Palmar is scum and Bum town. Makes some sense. 2) Bum is scum and Palmar is town. The odds of mafia framing wbg the night they shot him are simply ridiculous. That means Palmar is insane if really a DT. Palmar has to know this and if he was town he would be pushing for bum like a crazy man today, not suddenly deciding to go after me after he said yesterday he believed me. Doesn't make a lot of sense. Palmar just has no reason to assume bum got framed night one. Also not knowing about his sanity in the first place he would not be yelling bum is town before he confirmed it. 3) Both are scum. This makes the most sense, because palmar is not going after bum, which would make his story the most believable. 4)Both are town. For this to happen Bum needs to have been framed night one and palmar has to be behaving like an idiot as a DT. He keeps yelling Bum is town for no reason and somehow mafia doesn't pick up on this and shoot him. Not likely at all. your point no 4 is just plain wrong. you guys didn't shoot me because people suspect me. For 4 to happen Bum doesn't need to have been framed, all it takes is wbg being framed on day 2, and me actually being sane, that's the explanation I'd go with. But thanks, now you've just confirmed you're not using logic this game, you're scum. And why would I not defend a person who I have an innocent check on, it's only after I got the false check on wbg that I started doubting my sanity or the possibility of framers. | ||
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