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On September 13 2011 11:47 Curu wrote:
Because remaining quiet would basically be telling Mafia/the Vig that shot you that you're the SK since there's absolutely no reason for a Townie not to declare they were shot.
Right, but what is the mafia going to do, oust a member to get the SK lynched? After seeing only one kill (assuming the SK shot, and I guess only one mafia kp [makes sense if there is an sk in play]) the SK knows that there was no vigilante (or can reasonably assume, at least), I mean, now that you bring up the possibility it does seem remotely possible, considering Ace likes SK roles, I'm just not entirely convinced. I guess I'll go back and read over her posts.
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Even if she is a SK she has to play Pro Town since Mafia has not had a casualty yet. If Mafia gain majority over Town she loses regardless.
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And where the hell are sandroba and Mig? If Mafia KP is indeed 2 it is lylo tomorrow, they both need to start posting more. Having to lynch in lylo based on inactivity is going to royally suck.
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Occam's razor would suggest that Zona is not SK and that we should believe her claim.
Let's not seed doubt, people.
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If I live today I promisse to produce a shitton of info tomorrow. I used up all my free time on LoL today and now I'm heading to bed.
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God this is so unlike Town sandroba it's ridiculous.
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On September 13 2011 12:26 Curu wrote:
God this is so unlike Town sandroba it's ridiculous.
gee, I don't know of *anyone* whos been saying *that*.
So you agree with my assessment of him? If I die, please make sure he gets lynched, ok? (unless you are his scum-buddy, which I doubt)
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I'm leaning very much sandroba or Palmar tomorrow right now.
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I wanna kill Palmar/Jackal in that order. Then I'm fine with sandroba.
I give sandroba 24 hours into the day tomorrow before I will start pushing for his lynch. Right now there are better targets than him, I say we focus on them before splitting our vote.
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On September 13 2011 12:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
I wanna kill Palmar/Jackal in that order. Then I'm fine with sandroba.
I give sandroba 24 hours into the day tomorrow before I will start pushing for his lynch. Right now there are better targets than him, I say we focus on them before splitting our vote.
Thing is the moment we get majority the day ends, so if its lylo tomorrow and even one or two townies misvote right off the bat the whole mafia team can make the day immediately end. Let me stress this don't vote until we are sure of what we are doing.
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wait seriously? Day ends upon getting majority?
That didn't happen yesterday, we had 7 votes and then I added the 8th and day didn't end...
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On September 13 2011 12:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
wait seriously? Day ends upon getting majority?
That didn't happen yesterday, we had 7 votes and then I added the 8th and day didn't end...
Ace was afk, but that is how majority works, read any other Ace game.
Actually.
Ace, day ends when we hit majority, right?
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Oh so extended majority is the one that lasts the full length no matter what?
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United States4714 Posts
I am most confident in lynching sandroba/palmar/jackal. Sandroba being #1
Sandroba's play at this point I don't think can be explained with excuses. He has had 3 different reasons for not contributing now (gone from house for 2 days, hungover, playing LOL). Why even stop in to post saying you will contribute tomorrow but going to sleep now if you aren't even going to list your suspects in case you die? He also ignored my question where I asked him who besides jackal he thought was scum. If someone is gone for a few days and their activity drops I can understand it but the game has been going on what 6 days real time days now? And sandroba still hasn't given the town anything whatsoever. At this point it is obvious sandroba doesn't care about the town making the correct decisions and winning, which I have never seen from him before as a townie.
Along with that the analysis sandroba has provided this game is incredibly weak and so far below his normal play. His attacks on jackal/Xt were both very half hearted, he neglected to actually mention pretty much anything that has actually occurred in game and he didn't actually try to convince people of his case at all. Normally once sandroba picks out a target he is relentless in pushing for their lynches. Look at any of sandroba's recent town games where he almost single handedly gets scum lynched. His play this game is pretty much the polar opposite.
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I am confident that bumatlarge/bayonnet/palmar are scum. I am not throwing out these names together in a casual manner like some players do when they name a "scum team", I will present my full cases against each of them as being scum.
Part 1 - bumatlarge is scum
I've made this case already and I still believe it is as strong as it was before, here.
In addition to that, I want to point out that if both bumatlarge and I were town, it would have been a golden opportunity for mafia to join in and encourage the bumatlarge lynch. This secures them a mislynch as well as leaving almost all of the blame on me, which is a great situation for them to be in. However, only wherebugsgo and ggq ever join me in actually voting for bumatlarge, and the discussion of the lynch is quickly morphs over to other players and I have to give up on the lynch.
Furthermore, the entire sequence of events does not make sense if we are both mafia. Why would I bring suspicion on both bumatlarge and myself...for no reason at all?
This strengthens the idea that only one of bumatlarge and I is scum. Others have already made the argument as to why I am likely town, and why it did not make sense for me to claim and make the case I did if I were mafia, so I'll leave it at that.
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Part 2 - Bayonnet is scum
Here, I want to first talk about the setup of the game, in terms of balance. 12 town/4 mafia is a distribution you almost never see, and there are good reasons for that.
First, let's assume there are no vigilantes (or that they hold their shot), and ignore veteran and doctor protection. (Ignoring doctor protection is reasonable when considering game balance, as it's not that fair to balance a game expecting a doctor to succeed more than once. For veteran protection, it is more likely that it comes into play, but it's still probably that a veteran gets endgamed or lynched, where the protection also evaporates. We've also seen from several flips that it is likely the town is not overloaded with power roles.)
If mafia has a constant 2 kp, town is allowed a single mislynch to lynch four successfully, this is way too strong for mafia.
If mafia has n/2 kp (whether we round up or down), town is allowed two mislynches to lynch four, also very difficult, and unreasonable, in my view.
If mafia has 1 kp though, town has three mislynches to lynch four, which is more reasonable.
Now consider the game itself. On night 1, JeeJee died. (I also know that I was shot, and my own shot was blocked.) Due to his posts, I have come to believe that JeeJee was not a legitamite mafia target, and was shot by another night vigilante. Furthermore, due to something subtle Ace said when I was asking him clarifying questions about my role, I believe this other night vigilante has the same convoluted restrictions and penalties that I am subject to (and was penalized as a result of his or her shot). All this reinforces the belief I have that mafia started with 1 kp.
Now consider this post by Ace (link to original to confirm):
On September 07 2011 04:08 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2011 02:46 Kurumi wrote:
Confirmed Townies were always the part of Mafia. We either agree that TL Mafia teams suck and they need help and we balance accordingly or try to keep games fair. It is obvious that Mafia Team with Scum Doc, Roleblocker, Vigilante and 3 goons will have better results than a team with a Roleblocker and Godfather and four goons with the same setup. I dislike the roles "I used X, I am now confirmed", like America which was for example listed Town for some reason in that example game.
Players themselves should NEVER be able to confirm themselves by performing an action. Self-confirms are unacceptable (unless in theme games with "prevention system" like additional KP for people who claim or whatever) I mostly agree, except some roles just are easier to be looked at as Town than others. As a host as long as you make it difficult for the roles to confirm themselves/stay alive then you've done your job. Except Masons because there is nothing you can do about them. ETA: Also giving Scum "Town Roles" helps counteract confirmed Town scenario like GMarshal said. Seeing 2,3 medic claims in a game with low KP should make somebody stop and think there is a Scum Doctor in the setup.
Town dayvig is one of the easiest roles to self-confirm. But Ace suggests giving scum roles that traditionally belong to town. So I believe that the dayvig in our game is actually mafia-aligned. I am a town night vig, and that I believe the game started with another town night vig besides myself, so these two roles obviously swing the balance of power in favor of town. I believe that the dayvig is mafia to compensate. (Well, in addition to the penalties we suffer if we mis-shoot.)
But enough talk about why the dayvig might be mafia based on balancing reasons and Ace's comments. Let's consider Bayonnet's play in this game, especially day 1.
Bayonnet has been using a heavy amount of flavor in his posts, which is fun, but which I contend is being used to help obscure weak reasoning. He starts off the game with a vote on iGrok saying that iGrok displays "fear" and "discomfort" in his posts, and compares them to posts made in other games, not necessarily at the same stages of the games. This arguement actually isn't very strong, as the judgement of emotion is quite subjective, but Bayonnet continues to tunnel without providing any additional useful reasoning. Next day, he writes a bunch of nice flavor to accompany his day shot on iGrok with one new reason (iGrok's lynch was averted by a fast bandwagon). People have been saying it was a terrible shot, but he was probably town. My interpretation of the sequence of events is different. The entire tunnel and lead up to the shot was an intentional plan to justify a shot on iGrok.
Remember that iGrok flipped town. A dayvig shooting someone who flips town isn't damning by itself, but when combined with all the other evidence that I have provided, is a strong indication that Bayonnet is scum. Don't forget that he wrote, "Since I am the man pulling the trigger I take full responsibility for his flip."
Finally, we have this gem.
On September 13 2011 04:33 BayonnetAnderson wrote:
Last time a player crumbed flavor text in an Ace game he was instantly modkilled (deconduo in Closed Casket mafia), as Ace considers crumbing flavor to be a violation of the "don't post PM's from the host" rule. If curu is telling the truth, then he will be modkilled, which *royally* sucks, if he *isn't* modkilled then I think I'll have to conclude he is lying. I'm ok with a medic protecting either you or me, as I think we are the most "obvious" town left.
Also, I'm probably going to be afk for the next 24 hours, as I have things to do and places to be
All I can say is lol. Like Curu said, this post comes from a mafia mindset.
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Part 3 - Palmar is scum
There have been accusations thrown around that palmar is not playing to his full ability, and I agree with them. He actually has very few posts when compared to his normal play, and on top of that, a good number of those posts are virtually empty. He does not provide any solid evidence to back up any of his "reads", and does not respond to questions or elaborate on any of his statements. However, the post Palmar makes after I make my case on bumatlarge is rather incriminating. Here's the incriminating part.
On September 11 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
I don't agree with any case on Bumatlarge, I think I've gotten a grasp on how he plays town and how he plays scum, this is almost purely based on his day 1 posting, I'm pretty sure scumatlarge doesn't play like he did on day one, so let's rule him out.
Curu is almost definitely town, thing about people going emotional is that it makes it very easy to pick out actual frustrated town, and scum trying to blend in with that atmosphere, something I'll come back to later. The only problem with Curu as town is that his reads are below his standards, but his posting is way too natural and unrestricted for him to possibly be scum.
the smurf is town too. The shot was just terrible, but the intents behind it seem genuine enough. He also seems to be putting in the effort to actually scumhunt. The shot was really fucking dumb, but I'd still defend this guy at the moment.
And Sinani206 is using the I-don't-give-a-shit attitude he sometimes dons when he plays terribly. It's terrible, but it's TOWN. I can't believe this guy is even up for lynching today, he got deflected on after WBG scumslipped like a boss faster than lightning, what the hell guys?
Zona is probably town, claims a shot. No idea why she would play a veteran like that, hasn't stuck her neck out at all this game. It's just a weird style overall, her attack on Bum is just... derp. It's a bad lynch and it's never going to fly.
First, he starts off by listing a bunch of people he thinks is town, concluding that bumatlarge, curu, bayonnet, sinani, and zona are town. However, if you examine the actual explanations that are attached, none of them hold any water. All of them are by "feeling" or by his "grasp on how (player x) plays", and none are actually based on posts and votes. And notice that bumatlarge and bayonnet are on this list of "probably town", blended in with a few other players who do actually look town. In particular, the argument in favor of bumatlarge is pure garbage, based on a "grasp on how he plays town". The argument in favor of bayonnet isn't much better, where he acknowledges that the shot bayonnet took was bad, but "I'd still defend this guy at the moment". He states that "[bayonnet] seems to be putting in the effort to actually scumhunt" when at that point in time when Palmar made his post, only two of bayonnet's posts involved anyone other than iGrok, are were just rehashes of things others have posted before. Finally, Palmar doesn't address at all why my case on bum is weak, despite stating that he thinks i'm town. He just dismisses it with "derp".
Finally, we get this piece of beauty:
On September 12 2011 17:56 Palmar wrote:
Bum is not scum you scrub, what the shit?
Seriously, stop the ridiculousness. This game is as close as solved right now, just shoot into this list and lynch into it too: Mig, WBG, chaos13, GGQ.
I think Sandroba's shit is ok, only thing that really bothers me is his xtf vote which is imo based on nothing, but I don't know. xtf has been lurking hardcore this game. In case I'm yet fucking again wrong about chaos13, maybe xtf should be shot.
Zona is almost definitely town, Bumatlarge IS TOWN YOU MORONS. Jackal has a tiny chance of being scum, just because he cannot be read, but I'm leaning town now. The smurf is some baddie town and I think Curu is definitely town.
Stop being idiots, shoot those people.
Once again, note how he makes reads without any evidence. I even later ask him to elaborate on some of his reads, but he again entirely ignores any questions or requests to explain. But the sentence I've emphasized is the kicker. Palmar states that the game is pretty much solved. In order for the game to be solved for town, all scum must be confirmed, or alternatively, enough town must be confirmed such that mislynching (or mis-vigging) the remaining uncofirmed, together with the accompanying mafia night kills, still allows the town to win. We aren't even close to either situation. We had ZERO confirmed town when Palmar posted his sentence (it came before Curu's claim, whether or not you believe it), and we have ZERO confirmed mafia. In fact, if you just consider just the numerical situation, we're in pretty bad shape. And if Palmar truly believes mafia has 2kp like he posted here, it makes the situation look even worse.
Instead, I interpret this sentence as an attempt to bolster the strength of the reads he is suggesting without providing any evidence in the form of actual posts players have made, as well as an attempt to make the town relax and feel that the town is in good shape, when we have lost a number of townies and killed ZERO mafia.
The same post also includes this quote, "Zona is probably town, claims a shot. No idea why she would play a veteran like that, hasn't stuck her neck out at all this game." where he apparently buys into the idea that I am a veteran, when in Ace's games, being roleblocked also nullifies veteran protection. This is in stark contrast to the recent exchange (Palmar's post here) where we can clearly see that Palmar has been clarifying with Ace about details on even how subtle game mechanics work.
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For the last mafia member, I am not sure. I suspect it might be Jackal or Mig, but am in no way confident in any of these reads. I am also worried that the last member might be among the players who have posted so little in content that they are incredibly difficult to read at all.
Just to be thorough:
Ace, does a roleblock nullify a veteran's protection?
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On September 13 2011 12:47 BayonnetAnderson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 13 2011 12:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
wait seriously? Day ends upon getting majority?
That didn't happen yesterday, we had 7 votes and then I added the 8th and day didn't end... Ace was afk, but that is how majority works, read any other Ace game. Actually. Ace, day ends when we hit majority, right?
Yes. As you said I was afk yesterday. If I'm not around and someone hits majority assume they are dead.
On September 13 2011 13:04 Zona wrote:
For the last mafia member, I am not sure. I suspect it might be Jackal or Mig, but am in no way confident in any of these reads. I am also worried that the last member might be among the players who have posted so little in content that they are incredibly difficult to read at all.
Just to be thorough:
Ace, does a roleblock nullify a veteran's protection?
Yes
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@Zona
So your argument boils down to "he is a dayvigi who *tunneled*, tunneling is *bad* " and "oh he thought Ace would modkill curu for crumbing, as happened in CC mafia". Let me tell you a secret, tunneling works, look at cosmic horror where GMarshal tunnels the hell out of wiggles. Look at almost any game Palmar plays in. If I were a scum day vigi I would have gone after a better player, like say you, or bum, or palmar. Not after iGrok, who is a relative noob.
Also, if I'm a scum dayvigi why didn't I save my shot till lylo?
Final question, since the deadline is over. Who did you shoot ? or are you going to be conveniently roleblocked?
That accusation is totally contrived.
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EPT
