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There's players who are seemingly playing below their ability, players who are contributing very little, and players who are advancing sketchy arguments. I do have something to say about some of them. Sinani in particular looks like he was caught lying, and now just shitting up the town atmosphere. I agree a vigshot would be appropriate for him. Sandroba's been gone for over 48 hours and we should just wait for Ace to modkill him. For the rest, I'd like to wait before talking about them, because I want to present a lynch candidate for the town to consider that I am highly confident is scum.
I was shot AND roleblocked last night. I don't believe I was a realistic vig target, so I believe mafia performed both actions on me. Usually you wouldn't expect mafia to stack both actions on a target this way, but I'm guessing they spotted my breadcrumb in this post. You need to quote the post to see the breadcrumb "8 bang", which is supposed to represent a shot on player #8 on the list, bumatlarge.
Why bumatlarge?
On September 07 2011 11:40 bumatlarge wrote:
Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability.
Reread this post. This IS rolefishing! I'm disappointed that nobody else vigorously pursued this. He tries to obscure it with the "Let's talk about irrelevant things" part, but consider the possible scenarios which might have led him to post this.
He was town and had an ability, which (1) somehow led to him thinking everyone else might have abilities. Furthermore, he thought that it would be (2) useful for town to consider this information despite the risk it would basically out himself to mafia as someone with an ability. Both (1) and (2) are really poor leaps of logic, and I don't expect a player like bumatlarge act so unwisely, especially when the guaranteed risk is outing that he has an ability, with the additional risk of encouraging other town players to out that they have an ability.
Another possibility, he was town and had no ability. Him posting what he did under these circumstances makes even less sense, as he's now rolefishing as a vanilla townie.
The final possibility is that he's mafia and rolefishing. I believe this is what is actually going on.
Bumatlarge puts forwards the argument that the post was just "speculation" and not "role fishing". This is not a believable argument because it is something that is very detrimental to post as town. I myself didn't pursue this at the time, because by the time I had arrived to post in the game, the "hey rolefishing" discussion had morphed into something else and I didn't think I could bring it back to the forefront of town discussion. I had to let it go for the time being, and placed that breadcrumb instead.
However, there is also additional supporting evidence against bumatlarge.
Consider the JeeJee/GGQ/bumatlarge argument.
bumatlarge jumps in with this gem of a post:
On September 08 2011 06:27 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2011 06:06 JeeJee wrote:On September 08 2011 02:33 GGQ wrote:On September 08 2011 02:23 JeeJee wrote:On September 08 2011 01:12 GGQ wrote:On September 07 2011 13:15 JeeJee wrote:On September 07 2011 13:04 GGQ wrote:On September 07 2011 11:40 bumatlarge wrote:
Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability. Given that we have 4/16 mafia, I imagine that you're probably right. Oh boy let's rolefish some more. ##vote:ggq Hm, if you think that's rolefishing, why vote for me and not bum, who brought it up first? why not? I think it's pretty clear that when someone does something, 'why?' is a far more relevant question than 'why not?' "why?" has one clear, defined answer that helps to clarify your action. "why not?" has infinite hypothetical answers that just obscure it further. So cut the crap. Why? Calm down broski. It's very simple. When reacting to an accusation, townies tend to point out flaws with the accusation, since they know the accusation is wrong. Scum tend to try and shift the blame elsewhere, since they know the accusation is right. if my vote didn't count since it was before Ace's post (although after 13KST), I'll re-write it here again. ##vote:ggq Here you transformed "idle speculation" into "rolefishing". Bum: I think everyone has a role GGQ: 4 mafia; I agree JeeJee: rolefishing ? But then GGQ, instead of pointing this out, points a finger at me for something he initially agreed with. Congratulations! You found an "Inconsistency"! ##vote:ggq
bumatlarge is piggybacking on an attack by JeeJee on GGQ, but the logic he uses is terrible and really forced. JeeJee is provoking GGQ, who is reacting, and bum jumps in accusing GGQ of not responding in a specific way, and joins JeeJee in voting him. (Sidenote: GGQ's reply to bum's initial rolefishing actually implies he has an ability, since the only way you can turthfully agree the statement that everyone has an ability is to at least have an ability of your own, and in this way GGQ becomes that much more attractive for mafia to pursue.)
His later followup posts argues that, "GGQ could have pointed out that what he was doing was not rolefishing. Instead he gave an excuse about how he shouldn't be the focus. He had no intention of standing behind what he said," but GGQ's question about why JeeJee was focusing on GGQ, who was agreeing with bumatlarge's earlier statement, instead of bumatlarge, who was the first to post along those lines was a reasonable question to ask JeeJee.
I am highly confident that bumatlarge is mafia. The rolefishing post he makes would be a tremendously detrimental post to make if he really is town. The poor logic he employs when he piggybacks on JeeJee's attack on GGQ is another piece of evidence. I also believe that the stacked mafia roleblock and shot on me after I breadcrumbed a shot on bumatlarge is an attempt to save him (and to remove a vigilante), but for this part you have to choose whether or not to believe that I was indeed both shot at and roleblocked.
##Vote bumatlarge
As to the question about how the mafia would have spotted my breadcrumb, I don't want this to be the focus right now, but consider which players might quote the post in which I placed my breadcrumb:
On September 10 2011 12:15 Zona wrote:
Ack.
I want to HEAR more from sandroba, mig, and sinani.
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On September 11 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
I don't agree with any case on Bumatlarge, I think I've gotten a grasp on how he plays town and how he plays scum, this is almost purely based on his day 1 posting, I'm pretty sure scumatlarge doesn't play like he did on day one, so let's rule him out.
Palmar, are there any other reasons that you think bumatlarge is town that you haven't stated?
Because if your belief that bumatlarge is town is simply due to your feelings, I ask that you reread my case and consider the evidence I have presented against him from his own posts.
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On September 12 2011 01:39 Curu wrote:
What bugs me a bit is why would Zona be a shot + RB and why would a Medic choose to protect her, all in the same night. Of the current player list I think only a few have played games with Zona and also why would she shoot bum when her vote list was GGQ, me, Mig, sandroba?
I decided to shoot bumatlarge because during Night 1 when I reread the game, I noticed the parts that comprise the case I presented publicly and decided he was scummier than the others. You'll notice that everything in that case occurs before day 2. And better yet, bumatlarge has said nothing since then except to appear and write a pithy single post in his own defense against my case.
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For those considering the possibility that I am fake claiming as mafia and going after bumatlarge, consider this. If we do lynch bumatlarge and he flips town, my credibility will be completely destroyed, when I was under virtually no suspicion before I made the claim and my case.
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I might not be able to be here for the deadline, but I want to reiterate that I want everyone to seriously consider lynching bumatlarge. My case has been posted here and bumatlarge's subsequent posts don't contradict the evidence I provided.
I believe a sandroba lynch is not as good, because sandroba has been inactive, with a single scummy action in the vote for theawesomeall out of nowhere. bumatlarge has far more scummy actions, and hasn't added much to the discussion since then. sandroba has promised to be more active in the near future - and we can hold him to that, because if he really goes inactive again, do you think Ace will offer him leniency again? When sandroba becomes more active, we'll have a lot more to go on to get a read on him, instead of just a few posts. And if sandroba doesn't become more active, we'll insist that Ace modkill him.
I also believe a sinani lynch is not as good, because sinani's behavior is entirely indefensible. This means both town and scum can jump on the lynch offering much less insight. I say that a vig shot would be best here.
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Oh, someone asked me about which of the players in this game I've played with, if I recall correctly it would be
Mig/Palmar/bumatlarge/TheAwesomeAll in Arkham Asylum (which sandroba cohosted)
sandroba/GGQ/Mig/Curu/Palmar/chaos13/TheAwesomeAll/JeeJee in World at War 2 (what fun that was)
Those are the only two games I've played here in recent memory.
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Alright, whatever. It's clear my case isn't getting traction.
##Vote sinani
And Mig, what a terrible mistake for you to make no matter what alignment you are. I'm sure we'll be looking hard at you tomorrow.
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Palmar, I was rereading the filters of people I didn't have much suspicion about, just in case, and I think I'm beginning to agree with you on wherebugsgo. The way he agrees with me on basically everything is kind of fishy, and I'm considering scenarios as to why he would intentionally try to link us that way.
Also, could you elaborate more on the reasons behind your other three suspects, them being Mig, chaos13, and GGQ?
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Bayonnet, I was wondering if you could still shoot tomorrow? The reason I ask is I'm worried sandroba will return but perhaps post just the minimum required to not be modkilled. I was against lynching him before (I really wanted bumatlarge lynched), but if he continues to super-lurk, I think he's worth shooting LATE IN THE DAY (not in the first 24 hours). We should definitely give him a full 24 hours after the night is over to made good on his promise, then we act.
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To the doctor or medic who protected me last night:
I suggest that you consider protecting Curu tonight, since he is the ONLY confirmed townie that we have, thanks to his rather clever breadcrumb. If you were thinking about protecting me again tonight (and I hope you were), I would ask that you flip a coin, and based on that, protect Curu or myself.
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On September 13 2011 03:48 Zona wrote:
To the doctor or medic who protected me last night:
I suggest that you consider protecting Curu tonight, since he is the ONLY confirmed townie that we have, thanks to his rather clever breadcrumb. If you were thinking about protecting me again tonight (and I hope you were), I would ask that you flip a coin, and based on that, protect Curu or myself.
Alright, I've given this some thought and I've realized that I've made assumptions about the game I shouldn't have, based on Ace's completely barebones OP and cycle posts. Curu's claim should not be taken to mean that he is confirmed town, but Curu should continue to be evaluated like any player should, by his posts and his votes.
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On September 13 2011 08:05 Palmar wrote:
I already pmd Ace about that Jackal he answered:
A medic protecting a target will be notified that they stopped a hit.
The target will also be notified that they survived a hit.
I think it's okay I paste that, seeing as it's just rules stuff.
I also just pm'd Ace about this. I'm not willing to take your word for it. I also suggest that anyone who has any doubts independently ask Ace themselves.
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To be more explicit, I suspect that it's possible Ace's actual answer will be different from what Palmar supplied.
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I am confident that bumatlarge/bayonnet/palmar are scum. I am not throwing out these names together in a casual manner like some players do when they name a "scum team", I will present my full cases against each of them as being scum.
Part 1 - bumatlarge is scum
I've made this case already and I still believe it is as strong as it was before, here.
In addition to that, I want to point out that if both bumatlarge and I were town, it would have been a golden opportunity for mafia to join in and encourage the bumatlarge lynch. This secures them a mislynch as well as leaving almost all of the blame on me, which is a great situation for them to be in. However, only wherebugsgo and ggq ever join me in actually voting for bumatlarge, and the discussion of the lynch is quickly morphs over to other players and I have to give up on the lynch.
Furthermore, the entire sequence of events does not make sense if we are both mafia. Why would I bring suspicion on both bumatlarge and myself...for no reason at all?
This strengthens the idea that only one of bumatlarge and I is scum. Others have already made the argument as to why I am likely town, and why it did not make sense for me to claim and make the case I did if I were mafia, so I'll leave it at that.
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Part 2 - Bayonnet is scum
Here, I want to first talk about the setup of the game, in terms of balance. 12 town/4 mafia is a distribution you almost never see, and there are good reasons for that.
First, let's assume there are no vigilantes (or that they hold their shot), and ignore veteran and doctor protection. (Ignoring doctor protection is reasonable when considering game balance, as it's not that fair to balance a game expecting a doctor to succeed more than once. For veteran protection, it is more likely that it comes into play, but it's still probably that a veteran gets endgamed or lynched, where the protection also evaporates. We've also seen from several flips that it is likely the town is not overloaded with power roles.)
If mafia has a constant 2 kp, town is allowed a single mislynch to lynch four successfully, this is way too strong for mafia.
If mafia has n/2 kp (whether we round up or down), town is allowed two mislynches to lynch four, also very difficult, and unreasonable, in my view.
If mafia has 1 kp though, town has three mislynches to lynch four, which is more reasonable.
Now consider the game itself. On night 1, JeeJee died. (I also know that I was shot, and my own shot was blocked.) Due to his posts, I have come to believe that JeeJee was not a legitamite mafia target, and was shot by another night vigilante. Furthermore, due to something subtle Ace said when I was asking him clarifying questions about my role, I believe this other night vigilante has the same convoluted restrictions and penalties that I am subject to (and was penalized as a result of his or her shot). All this reinforces the belief I have that mafia started with 1 kp.
Now consider this post by Ace (link to original to confirm):
On September 07 2011 04:08 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2011 02:46 Kurumi wrote:
Confirmed Townies were always the part of Mafia. We either agree that TL Mafia teams suck and they need help and we balance accordingly or try to keep games fair. It is obvious that Mafia Team with Scum Doc, Roleblocker, Vigilante and 3 goons will have better results than a team with a Roleblocker and Godfather and four goons with the same setup. I dislike the roles "I used X, I am now confirmed", like America which was for example listed Town for some reason in that example game.
Players themselves should NEVER be able to confirm themselves by performing an action. Self-confirms are unacceptable (unless in theme games with "prevention system" like additional KP for people who claim or whatever) I mostly agree, except some roles just are easier to be looked at as Town than others. As a host as long as you make it difficult for the roles to confirm themselves/stay alive then you've done your job. Except Masons because there is nothing you can do about them. ETA: Also giving Scum "Town Roles" helps counteract confirmed Town scenario like GMarshal said. Seeing 2,3 medic claims in a game with low KP should make somebody stop and think there is a Scum Doctor in the setup.
Town dayvig is one of the easiest roles to self-confirm. But Ace suggests giving scum roles that traditionally belong to town. So I believe that the dayvig in our game is actually mafia-aligned. I am a town night vig, and that I believe the game started with another town night vig besides myself, so these two roles obviously swing the balance of power in favor of town. I believe that the dayvig is mafia to compensate. (Well, in addition to the penalties we suffer if we mis-shoot.)
But enough talk about why the dayvig might be mafia based on balancing reasons and Ace's comments. Let's consider Bayonnet's play in this game, especially day 1.
Bayonnet has been using a heavy amount of flavor in his posts, which is fun, but which I contend is being used to help obscure weak reasoning. He starts off the game with a vote on iGrok saying that iGrok displays "fear" and "discomfort" in his posts, and compares them to posts made in other games, not necessarily at the same stages of the games. This arguement actually isn't very strong, as the judgement of emotion is quite subjective, but Bayonnet continues to tunnel without providing any additional useful reasoning. Next day, he writes a bunch of nice flavor to accompany his day shot on iGrok with one new reason (iGrok's lynch was averted by a fast bandwagon). People have been saying it was a terrible shot, but he was probably town. My interpretation of the sequence of events is different. The entire tunnel and lead up to the shot was an intentional plan to justify a shot on iGrok.
Remember that iGrok flipped town. A dayvig shooting someone who flips town isn't damning by itself, but when combined with all the other evidence that I have provided, is a strong indication that Bayonnet is scum. Don't forget that he wrote, "Since I am the man pulling the trigger I take full responsibility for his flip."
Finally, we have this gem.
On September 13 2011 04:33 BayonnetAnderson wrote:
Last time a player crumbed flavor text in an Ace game he was instantly modkilled (deconduo in Closed Casket mafia), as Ace considers crumbing flavor to be a violation of the "don't post PM's from the host" rule. If curu is telling the truth, then he will be modkilled, which *royally* sucks, if he *isn't* modkilled then I think I'll have to conclude he is lying. I'm ok with a medic protecting either you or me, as I think we are the most "obvious" town left.
Also, I'm probably going to be afk for the next 24 hours, as I have things to do and places to be
All I can say is lol. Like Curu said, this post comes from a mafia mindset.
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Part 3 - Palmar is scum
There have been accusations thrown around that palmar is not playing to his full ability, and I agree with them. He actually has very few posts when compared to his normal play, and on top of that, a good number of those posts are virtually empty. He does not provide any solid evidence to back up any of his "reads", and does not respond to questions or elaborate on any of his statements. However, the post Palmar makes after I make my case on bumatlarge is rather incriminating. Here's the incriminating part.
On September 11 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
I don't agree with any case on Bumatlarge, I think I've gotten a grasp on how he plays town and how he plays scum, this is almost purely based on his day 1 posting, I'm pretty sure scumatlarge doesn't play like he did on day one, so let's rule him out.
Curu is almost definitely town, thing about people going emotional is that it makes it very easy to pick out actual frustrated town, and scum trying to blend in with that atmosphere, something I'll come back to later. The only problem with Curu as town is that his reads are below his standards, but his posting is way too natural and unrestricted for him to possibly be scum.
the smurf is town too. The shot was just terrible, but the intents behind it seem genuine enough. He also seems to be putting in the effort to actually scumhunt. The shot was really fucking dumb, but I'd still defend this guy at the moment.
And Sinani206 is using the I-don't-give-a-shit attitude he sometimes dons when he plays terribly. It's terrible, but it's TOWN. I can't believe this guy is even up for lynching today, he got deflected on after WBG scumslipped like a boss faster than lightning, what the hell guys?
Zona is probably town, claims a shot. No idea why she would play a veteran like that, hasn't stuck her neck out at all this game. It's just a weird style overall, her attack on Bum is just... derp. It's a bad lynch and it's never going to fly.
First, he starts off by listing a bunch of people he thinks is town, concluding that bumatlarge, curu, bayonnet, sinani, and zona are town. However, if you examine the actual explanations that are attached, none of them hold any water. All of them are by "feeling" or by his "grasp on how (player x) plays", and none are actually based on posts and votes. And notice that bumatlarge and bayonnet are on this list of "probably town", blended in with a few other players who do actually look town. In particular, the argument in favor of bumatlarge is pure garbage, based on a "grasp on how he plays town". The argument in favor of bayonnet isn't much better, where he acknowledges that the shot bayonnet took was bad, but "I'd still defend this guy at the moment". He states that "[bayonnet] seems to be putting in the effort to actually scumhunt" when at that point in time when Palmar made his post, only two of bayonnet's posts involved anyone other than iGrok, are were just rehashes of things others have posted before. Finally, Palmar doesn't address at all why my case on bum is weak, despite stating that he thinks i'm town. He just dismisses it with "derp".
Finally, we get this piece of beauty:
On September 12 2011 17:56 Palmar wrote:
Bum is not scum you scrub, what the shit?
Seriously, stop the ridiculousness. This game is as close as solved right now, just shoot into this list and lynch into it too: Mig, WBG, chaos13, GGQ.
I think Sandroba's shit is ok, only thing that really bothers me is his xtf vote which is imo based on nothing, but I don't know. xtf has been lurking hardcore this game. In case I'm yet fucking again wrong about chaos13, maybe xtf should be shot.
Zona is almost definitely town, Bumatlarge IS TOWN YOU MORONS. Jackal has a tiny chance of being scum, just because he cannot be read, but I'm leaning town now. The smurf is some baddie town and I think Curu is definitely town.
Stop being idiots, shoot those people.
Once again, note how he makes reads without any evidence. I even later ask him to elaborate on some of his reads, but he again entirely ignores any questions or requests to explain. But the sentence I've emphasized is the kicker. Palmar states that the game is pretty much solved. In order for the game to be solved for town, all scum must be confirmed, or alternatively, enough town must be confirmed such that mislynching (or mis-vigging) the remaining uncofirmed, together with the accompanying mafia night kills, still allows the town to win. We aren't even close to either situation. We had ZERO confirmed town when Palmar posted his sentence (it came before Curu's claim, whether or not you believe it), and we have ZERO confirmed mafia. In fact, if you just consider just the numerical situation, we're in pretty bad shape. And if Palmar truly believes mafia has 2kp like he posted here, it makes the situation look even worse.
Instead, I interpret this sentence as an attempt to bolster the strength of the reads he is suggesting without providing any evidence in the form of actual posts players have made, as well as an attempt to make the town relax and feel that the town is in good shape, when we have lost a number of townies and killed ZERO mafia.
The same post also includes this quote, "Zona is probably town, claims a shot. No idea why she would play a veteran like that, hasn't stuck her neck out at all this game." where he apparently buys into the idea that I am a veteran, when in Ace's games, being roleblocked also nullifies veteran protection. This is in stark contrast to the recent exchange (Palmar's post here) where we can clearly see that Palmar has been clarifying with Ace about details on even how subtle game mechanics work.
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For the last mafia member, I am not sure. I suspect it might be Jackal or Mig, but am in no way confident in any of these reads. I am also worried that the last member might be among the players who have posted so little in content that they are incredibly difficult to read at all.
Just to be thorough:
Ace, does a roleblock nullify a veteran's protection?
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Okay, I did try to shoot bayonnet as I thought that a mafia dayvig would be the greatest threat to town. Since no one else has claimed being roleblocked, it's likely that I misread the night 1 roleblock on me as a mafia roleblock. (If we go with the idea mafia has no roleblocker - maybe they have a doc? Or, maybe the 12/4 setup has them with very little in special abilities?!?)
My mind is open to anyone's arguments, except Palmar's, as I still don't believe him in any way. However, if we assume Palmar's claim is true, it's likely he's insane, but consider that my case on bumatlarge is weaker now that we know the roleblock on me was because of jailing, not a mafia roleblock.
Sandroba's appeared now, at LYLO, after a series of excuses that got worse and worse. The "playing LoL" excuse is entirely inadmissable after PROMISING to show up and play.
Chances are, a number of mafia are among the non-contributors, and town non-contributors are really helping them hide.
There are three guns around at night. Mine, and two others. Night 1 my gun didn't fire, someone's gun fired at me, and someone fired at JeeJee. Night 2 I shot bayonnet, which failed. And wherebugsgo and Curu were also shot.
It is my belief that one other gun started in the hands of a role like mine, and the other is the mafia's only night kp. However, I note that I've misread several things in this game.
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Bayonnet, if you have any more bullets, they need to be used today. Tell us if you have any more, and we should also vote on it like a double lynch.
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Actually, if bayonnet has no more bullets, we need to lynch a mafia, AND we need at least one of the three guns tonight to hit mafia (or get blocked) just to avoid losing.
I also want the possibility that both Palmar and Jackal are lying to be considered. Wherebugsgo has a case on them which at the time I thought had some merit but wasn't entirely bulletproof.
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EPT
