EPTFirst game, please be gentle.
Cosmic Horror Mafia
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
First game, please be gentle. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
I am bored... | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is the horror afraid of? Two things, 1.) the lynch, as it kills him and makes him incapable of winning, and conversely town losing too fast, since then he won't be able to infect everyone in time. This means that the horror is going to try to present an organized, pro-town stance and appearance, so expect things like long policy/mechanics posts and attempts at directing town attention early in the game, and later focus on scumhunting, probably successfully getting scum lynched. He obviously wants to draw scum hits, since they increase the number of insane people in the town. All this means he is going to try to *appear* town, while pushing to resolve his fear #2 2.) The psychologist, as every night the psychologist is alive the horror's wincondition becomes a little harder to carry out. For this reason expect plans that involve the psychologist claiming, and plans that require mass claims. Remember the sooner the psychologist is dead, the sooner the horror can carry out his wincondition. With that in mind, lets take a good look at Wiggles first post of the game. My comments in spoilers inside the quote On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at? Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. + Show Spoiler + Right here, he is already downplaying the danger the horror poses to the town, I'm betting that if he is ousted later in the game he'll try explain how lynching the horror is a "waste of a lynch" when we could be hitting "real scum". Also, notice how he is *already* taking about the psychologist. Its the number one thing on his mind. He couldn't even get past the first paragraph without worrying about it So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) + Show Spoiler + Look at this magnificent plan to get his hands on the psychologist, for a 1/13 chance of losing outright he gets to kill his #1 threat to victory. Plus, he is going to be so "pro-town" the worrying about the psychologist checking *him* won't be an issue. Look at point 1 and 2 above, here is wiggles, promoting a plan that reveals the psychologist yet appears pro-town. this is the giveaway that wiggles has only one focus. Notice how the mafia is only mentioned in passing and the medic isn't even a concern. Its because to wiggles those things aren't important, in his mind those take second place to the much more relevant psychologist that stands in his way, and of course to appearing town There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. + Show Spoiler + and now he is backtracking, while still pushing for the psychologist to "breadcrumb", which wiggles, our mega clue master will be able to catch. Notice how he isn't even supporting his own plan, its a "point of discussion". In other words, he is hoping a foolish townie is going to pick it up and run with it, or even better a stupid psychologist is going to think "huh, this isn't bad, I better do as wiggles suggested". A real townie, someone who cares about whether the town loses or wins is not going to propose what he considers a bad plan, especially not a veteran player like wiggles, who knows that as a rule of thumb, towns are stupid and tend to subscribe to bad ideas. BY proposing a poor idea as a "point of discussion" wiggles is pushing all the objectives of a smart horror. Discuss! + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jmQZg.gif) Wiggles is the edritch horror. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 05:47 Jackal58 wrote: Who are you Smurfing for Ferryman? Lol, not smurfing, I just actually took the time to read the guides and previous games before jumping in and playing a game. What do you think of my accusation of wiggles? Am I off base? | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
##Vote: Mr.Wiggles | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 06:06 Jackal58 wrote: If it wasn't Wiggles I'd say you're spot on. But Wiggles is the only one here that I'm aware of that has won a game as the SK before. But I also used this rationale to talk myself into believing Wiggles couldn't be scum once when the scum team was playing like 2 year old kids on Valium. I don't believe Wiggles to be the 3rd party atm. I would say Palmar has more likelihood of that but that isn't saying much right now either. If you're right kudos to you. I'd rather wait a bit and see what develops. If Mr. Wiggles is town he is probably the best player we have. Hmm, is there any reason, other than pure meta why you think I might be wrong? I mean I don't really see what relevance wiggle's victory in survivor mafia has to do with the fact that his play right now is exactly in line with they way the EH is supposed to play. What am I missing? I agree wiggles is a strong player, but that doesn't mean we should be afraid to lynch him, not with such a damming post. I'd really appreciate it if you would flesh out why you don't think wiggles is third party. Thanks. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On Meta, and Wiggles. So, Jackal, meta makes you think wiggles is not a 3rd party, does it? Lets look at the a game where wiggle has been third party in the past, and compare his behavior in that game to his behavior here. (I am disregarding the game where he was an assassin, since in that game his goal was not to appear pro-town, but rather maintain a scummy profile to avoid being shot by the mafia, and survivor mafia, where he was the only anti-town player in an open PM game) Lets take a look at a post in Insane mafia 2, hosted by LSB, where wiggles was part of a third party faction. Here is a sample post. Some background, for those who don't feel like figuring out what happened. Bumatlarge had just claimed to be part of the town aligned circle of blues, who all knew each other and each other's alignment, in a bid to gain mayorship, no one counterclaimed him, which basically meant he was confirmed town, and a dt to boot. Kavdragon, a member of wiggle's third party team was also vying for the mayorship. Now read the post. + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2011 05:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so here's my thoughts on the mayorship: For me, this is really between Kav and bum. At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how much I want to trust bum's blue claim. So far, he is uncontested, which possibly bodes well for him being a true blue. However, as others have stated, and I've been considering, there is still the possibility of his being scum, even with no counterclaim. It really comes down to the likelihood of Blues wanting to make a 1-1 trade so early in the game, and before roles have even been given. I am assuming, since everyone will have a power, that blues will be much stronger than greens. There is also a disparity between the number of powerful town roles (Blues) and scum in this game, and while I personally feel analysis is a far stronger tool, most of the TL towns I've been in have been reverent of Blue's power, often to the point of reliance (Eg: XXXV). So just applying metagame, it seems unusual a blue would be willing to put himself out there so quickly and prominently. I see this either as a power move by the blues (as most people are assuming), or as a cunning play by scum. A lot of my suspicion comes from timing. Bum claimed before night 0 is over, and I would have trusted it a lot more if it was on Day 1, as he would have his role already. For example, bum could be scum, but conceivably a blue wouldn't bother to contest him until they get their roles, so they can use the weakest combination of role/player on their team to out him, which makes it harder for them, considering the amount of time bum has been uncontested, which can also be used for a WIFOM argument from him. Kav on the other hand, has no real assurances that he is not scum. So far, his posting has seemed pro-town, but he hasn't really expounded on any of his views besides that he wants to stay alive to analyze and direct the town. I've had first-hand experience with him as mayor, working closely with him in XXXVI, so I know that he is a very capable and active player. Before I'd vote for him though, I'd need to hear more about what he'd do Day 1 lynch, and what other things he'd try to do with his longevity. So, in short, I feel both Bum and Kav would make good mayors. Kav based on personal experience with him, and Bum on the condition of being blue. I'm still trying to evaluate the likelihood of a Night 0 blue claim though, because I really don't like the timing, and would like to see if there are counterclaims Day 1. Hopefully if Bum isn't blue, someone would eventually counterclaim, because blues wouldn't want to let scum become mayor. I also don't think the lack of Night 0 counterclaims really strengthens his claim in any way, because as I've said, blues probably wouldn't counterclaim until Day 1 anyways, when they can make a much better choice of counterclaiming player. Notice one thing, the obvious fact was that bum *had* to be a blue, else the blue faction would have conterclaimed. However third party wiggles isn't afraid to push a anti-town agenda to further his own team. 3rd party wiggles isn't afraid to push his own plans, against the town. Also notice how a third party wiggles is really good at ending his post with dodging responsibility, his whole post casts doubts on bum, yet at the end of the post he backs down, while still supporting his agenda of getting his buddy elected. Lets compare that to his first post this game where wiggles, pushes a anti-town agenda and at the end backs down to dodge responsibility. The similarity between these two posts is... stunning. For the sake of fairness lets look at what Wiggle's normal town play looks like, with a post from BCs Arkham Asylum, where wiggles was Zsasz a vigilante. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphere This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. Clues There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third Parties Looking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game? Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. Lets look at the key differences between this type of early game post and wiggle's post in this game. What does it talk about? It talks about catching scum, about things that are relevant to the main objective, defeating the mafia. What does it do that the other post doesn't? 1.) It gives concrete, powerful advice about things that need to be said, and things that are important to avoding chaos. Is that even mentioned in his post here? Of course not, this game, he could care less about a good scum-hunting atmosphere, since all he has to do is *appear* town, the actual atmosphere is irrelevant, since if he can't find mafia he'll fabricate a case. The post from arkham is attempting to be helpful 2.)This post owns up to what it is trying to do, that is lead and organize the town, with no excuses made for it. Wiggles shows no hesitation, no "well, actually its ok if you bicker, that might help hunt scum too" in this post wiggles owns up to his post. there is no hesitation, just ownership 3.) He doesn't focus excessively on one topic he talks about a bunch of different things. He reveals his mind is not focused around a particular target, he covers everything unlike his post this game that focuses on the two elements that he is most focused on. Wiggle's meta fits perfectly with the way third party wiggle plays, pushing his objectives while backtracking so it looks like he isn't. It looks nothing like his town meta, where he doesn't have a single minded focus, and actually owns up to his posts, while trying to propose things that are actually helpful, rather than a objectivity bad plan. Sorry Jackal, but your meta read is wrong, Wiggles is a Horror, without a shadow of doubt. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 07:19 Palmar wrote: The one thing that feels really forced in Ferryman's post is the fact that he for some reason assumes that specifically making long policy posts at the start of the game is optimal play for the EA. I have no idea why this would be the case. Like, I personally never dig into that policy thing, I just wait till people start arguing about them and try to pick out the scum. But for some reason you feel that it's somehow a necessity for the EA to play that way, ie: you're artificially inflating your argument, which is weird to me. Its a meta argument, Wiggles almost always makes long policy posts early on. Hence why if he is EA he is *still* going to make long policy posts. If *you* were the EA then I wouldn't expect you to make long policy posts, nor would i expect it as scum, or as town. I wouldn't expect it from you at all, you favor the more aggressive "Random Voting Phase" which I think is useless. "Optimal Play" varies on a player by player basis. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 08:20 Palmar wrote: he's not new, he's read way too many games for that to make sense. Instead of speculating about whether or not I'm a smurf, try reading my case and commenting on it. You can assume whatever you want. I'm new, I was waiting for a smallish game, so I took the opportunity to read through as many games as possible. Now focus on things that actually *matter*. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Hooray, there's discussion. So we can have discussion, I'm going to respond to the case against me, which for once seems thought out for a day 1 case. My responses in Blue. So, is it better to post something, that you know is a bad idea, in order to promote discussion, or is it better to post nothing at all? Ferryman seems to believe that it is better to not post, or that someone posting and trying to generate discussion is anti-town. He twists what I wrote a lot, by saying that I'm trying to push forward this plan, when in reality, I myself wrote that it wasn't that great. As well, instead of discussing the merits of my ideas with me, the point of my post, he instead simply attacks me as the horror, which does nothing to help us choose the most optimal route of play. I basically already addressed this in the above green text. Yes its better not to discuss than to post such a bad plan that the mafia can look uber-town for bashing it. Please don't tell me there aren't other things you could have talked about, because that frankly untrue. I am helping pick the most optimal route of play, that would be play normally and lynch wiggles the EH. There is literaly nothing to discuss about your plan. I can talk about exactly how sucky it is, but that won't get a mafia on the lynch plataform There's a few glaring problems in this post about meta as well. In Insane 2, I was NOT a third party. Though it is entitled third party, the faction was more equivalent to a second mafia family, with a full roster of 4 players, PM rights, and equivalent abilities. Thus, that post is a bad example of trying to find something to compare when talking about third parties. The only games I have played as true third party, were the ones as Assassin, and as Serial Killer, which you dismiss in an attempt to try to find a post that better matches the one I made in this game, in which I am more akin to mafia, than a true third party. Lol, awesome try here, nice effort, but you were a bulletproof faction that couldn't win if the mafia won. Much like the EH is a bulletproof person who can't win if the mafia wins. Yes, I discarded survivor, because it was frankly a crappy game, although if you push me I will go back and find your "clue analysis" from that game in which you *also* demonstrate the backing off trait As well, you do not take context into the quote you pulled from AA. In that game, nearly a third of the player base was completely new, with either 1 or no games played previously. Thus, a post such as that is necessary to give direction and promote a good atmosphere with newer players. This town is mostly made up of experienced players, so there isn't really a need to provide a generic post, because everyone should be experienced enough to realize what they need to do without having the same post regurgitated at the beginning of every game. So, instead of wasting time talking about things people should have learned after a couple games, I am able to jump straight into talking about the set-up. Here we continue to misinterpret what I am saying,I'm not saying you need to post generic advice, but you need to discuss things of relevance or usefulness. not a plan so bad scum can happily sheep with the "its so awful" crowd. Your plan is like when people choose to discuss what blues should do in vague terms "medics should protect pro-town players". This allows scum to blend in. Again, you know better. Also the thrust of my "meta" argument is that you back off and deny responsibility for your ideas as third party but not as town. Compare the two posts, not a single word of doubt in the town one, a "both candidates... etc, etc" in the second. And then compare the one in this game "its a bad plan, also you might think about bread crumbing, not that I am going to take a stance on that mind you" Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. This has been true for maybe the last 10 normal games I've played. As well, your case against me seems eerily similar to Drazerk's and Ghrur's from AA, calling me third party, because I deigned to discuss the third parties. I'm not going to rehash everything I wrote in that game in response, but I'll link their analysis so you can see the similarities: Completely irrelevant post you attached here. Glad you included it. Shows nothing, and fails to disprove the points I'm making. Meta arguments aren't "weak", most people just fail at understanding how they work. If you've read Ver's guide, you would know this. + Show Spoiler + On July 19 2011 12:09 ghrur wrote: Hello fellow mafia players! I see you've all been discussing SS quite a lot. Allow me to introduce another candidate for the lynch. 2 candidates are better than one, and it'd be even better if we could force the mafia to choose.  Without further ado, here I go. VOTE WIGGLES Drazerk was the first one to nominate this candidate. His analysis is here. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 21:13 Drazerk wrote: Time to actually go to work I guess. Let's start with our always scum fellow Mr. Wiggles shall we? Now we could say wiggles has a track record of being scum but the problem is his scum play has been pretty bland, In fact in RTM / WaW2 we was able to pick him out as scum just because of how little effort he puts in when being scum. Now when I read the thread this morning I was pretty much blown away by how much effort he was putting in, Its almost as if he did a 180 and is trying his best to not follow his scum meta by promoting a pro town atmosphere. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 10:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ok, so let's get this started! First things first, let's lay out some things we want to achieve, and some guidelines. A pro-town atmosphere This normally goes without saying, but it often bears repeating. If we want to catch scum, we need to have the proper environment for scum hunting and for communicating with each other. This means a couple things:
Basically, we want to keep the thread as clean as possible, because chaos best serves mafia, not town. If you really don't know what to do, there's town guides. I'm not going to write one here, because I'm too lazy, and don't consider myself experienced enough to try. However, I am going to go through the three points above, as I think they are very important. We always want people to scum-hunt. There's never an excuse not to scum-hunt; everyone can do it. This provides us with many benefits. First, it's the primary method for actually finding scum. It also means that people have to give their actual thoughts, and have to come up with things beyond "I agree". This gives us information, and information is good. It lets us know what you're thinking, and it puts pressure on mafia to have to contribute. Also, forcing mafia to scum-hunt means that there's a good chance of catching them just based on their analysis, because it's hard to find people who are scummy, when you know they aren't scum. Next, we want to avoid bickering. This goes hand in hand with keeping the thread clean. This is different from actually debating with people, and you should be able to tell the difference between rationality, and NO U. If anyone is having a pointless argument, they will be asked to stop. It doesn't help town, only mafia. Lastly, we want people to contribute. There's a posting limit of 5 posts per day/night, but that doesn't give you permission to skirt that limit. It's easy for mafia to hide amongst lurkers, and beyond that, lurkers are nearly impossible to analyze. So, contribute. This doesn't mean make tons of pointless one-liners, it means providing actual thoughts, analysis, and content. You can do it, I believe in you. And if you don't, we can always just ask a vig to shoot you. We don't want people to lurk. Clues There's clues in this game. However, all clue analysis MUST MUST MUST be backed up by post analysis. Before you post the clue analysis too. The reason for this, is that clues will most likely point to all kills. this means that some of the clues are going to point to vigs, some will point to third parties, and the others will point to mafia. Accidentally outing a vig because you solved the clues about them is bad. So, if you think someone's attached to a clue, go back and re-read their posts. If you think they look scummy, then post an analysis that contains the clue analysis. If you think they're town, just hold onto your analysis. Clue-analysis should always be used to supplement an actual behavioural analysis. It should never be the main point for calling someone scummy. In other words: Clues pointing towards a person does not equal scum. Third Parties Looking at the third parties, here's what we want: -We want Joker to die. -We want Batman to kill Joker. -This means that Batman wins, and should hopefully be removed from the game, also removing Ra’as Al Ghul who can no longer achieve his victory condition. This is the optimal way the third party part of the game will go. We want Batman to kill Joker before Ra'as can kill Batman, so that we don't have to deal with Joker ourselves. So, if you think someone's acting like an SK, don't be afraid to point it out, as this should help Batman achieve his win-con, and let us get on with the rest of the game. If Joker is lynched, is Batman removed from the game? If Batman is removed from the game, is Ra'as removed from the game? Thoughts? Disagreements? Let's get this rolling. You will see a post like that at the start of every game, In fact it's pretty much one of the easiest ways to gain townie points as the post is pretty much common sense followed with some "weak" policies. Notice how wiggles keeps mentioning the third parties? + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 10:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Mhmm, if we catch them, we should lynch them. However, how can we catch them? The only ways I can see, are through just behavioural analysis, and also clue analysis. That's why I say, that if someone is acting like an SK, we might as well lynch them. However, SKs normally act like lurkers, or are scummy, from my experience. So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely. The priority is: joker>batman>ra'al Because killing up the chain, removes the players below. So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. The constant talk of game mechanics makes it seem like he is pro town when he is pretty much posting fluff at this point he just seems to want to enter lylo later when he has established himself as a town player. Shall we go into his other posts about game mechanics? + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 11:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Clue analysis can be strong, and also, newer players are sometimes easily swayed by it, because it seems like an "objective" form of scum-hunting. I'm saying, before pointing out any clues, look at the person who was killed, and the posting history of the player you think the clue is pointing to. For example, if they killed a mafia, and look super pro-town, what would be the possible benefits of pointing it out? However, if someone killed town, and look scummy, then make an actual analysis and then attach the perceived clue to it. No one should be lynched only on clues, and clues shouldn't just be looked at in a vacuum. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Yeah, it's a minimum, I just used the word limit for some reason =/ If you are being active and playing the game, you shouldn't really have any problem making the 5 post minimum. For example, you already made 2 decent posts, and still have almost 70 hours to make the other three to avoid mod-kill. Also, filler should mostly be avoided if possible, as there are always other things to post besides useless stuff. For example, you can comment on other people's analysis, on the voting patterns or bandwagons that are going to appear, on how people are acting or trying to manipulate town, etc. There's lots to talk about. :p + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 11:06 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Agreed. Together the third party hold the same amount of KP as the entire mafia, and based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 11:49 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Also, to add on to advice for DTs, especially as there are a lot of newer players present, always try to form a case around a player based on analysis if you get a guilty check. Do not just claim. Claiming early is never a good thing, as a 1-1 trade with mafia benefits them more than town. + Show Spoiler + On July 18 2011 11:57 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Oops, I might have screwed up the logic, haha. Been playing scum for too long. O.o Green for mafia is an awesome trade, as we outnumber the mafia. 1-1 with a DT isn't great early on, especially depending on who the scum is. For example, if you checked random lurker A and they returned red, try to get them shot or lynched, don't claim. Trading a DT for a red lurker isn't a very good trade, when we can get additional use out of the DT. Use your discretion, but I think making a push for a lynch based on analysis should be the first step taken, before any kind of claim. So essentially most of his posts are either about, The third parties or how to deal with clues. He has actually done little scum hunting which is a typical trait of his scum play. In my opinion Wiggles is trying very hard to not look like his regular scum meta by "Appearing" to put in effort but with the little scum hunting / FoSing from him he seems to have just concentrated on the mechanics side of the game (Basically fluff) and promote his "Town atmosphere" the best way he can. FoS on Wiggles ##Vote: Mr. Wiggles Now, while I have read it, I came to the conclusion of my own accord. I will most likely bring up similar points, but I shall try to add new material as well. First off, if you notice, Wiggles has not given up ANY information. His posts consist of general advice, "null tell" posts, defenses, and future promises. They all serve a purpose, if he were mafia. General advice makes him look town. Null tell is an easy way to write something off while seeming logical and townie. Defenses = I DON'T WANT TO GET LYNCHED. Future promises mean nothing except that he gets to hide his current information. What's lacking is a stance, a thought, a suspicion, anything concrete to show he's actually scum hunting. Mafia moves right here, gentlemen. Or, you know, SK moves. Now, if you were to look through wiggle's posts, you'll notice that in his very first discussion of mechanics/generalities, he goes in depth into third party thinking. He also seems to be promoting the bats. Notice: + Show Spoiler + So, that means the batman should be shooting into lurkers and scummy people. On the flip-side though, Ra'al is going to be shooting into pro-town players, as Batman wants to try to look like a green, most likely. The priority is: joker>batman>ra'al Because killing up the chain, removes the players below. So, I guess you're right, that we should always kill third-parties, to remove their KP. However, the priority should be on the joker, as he will most likely appear scummiest, and also his death removes all third parties. "So, I guess you're right" seems like a begrudging answer. He didn't want to admit it. "batman shooting into lurkers and scummy people" seems to be promoting the bats. Notice also how he's analyzed the likely behavior of theese characters already. This indicates a lot of thinking about these roles. This makes me inclined to believe he's Bats, or at least an SK. + Show Spoiler + based on probability, are more like to kill town than mafia too. My god. He's even thought about third party probabilities. I'm wondering if he means cost/benefit probabilities or just hey, 3/4th = town and less than 1/4th = mafia. :/ If only he specified. but then, that'd be too much info wouldn't it? Now, around 7/18 13:14 TL time, something interesting happens. Pyo softly pressures Wiggles. Wiggle's response? A paragraph, providing meta-game proof that his actions are a "null-tell." See here. + Show Spoiler + Meh, it's a null-tell again. Examples, GM in Real-Time Mafia, Kavdragon in Pick Your Power Insane. Both making long posts trying to direct town at the beginning, both town. Also, if you think my post is spam, please point out how. If you read it, I specifically say I'm not going to write a general how to play town guide, just give a little bit of general advice against what's made town lose in about three of the last four games I've played, and then talked about how to use clues properly and that killing Joker is a high priority for town. It's not even that massive either, haha. The problem here is that there was in no way ANY threat towards him. I would shrug it off. Why does it matter? I see this as over-defensive. An act of Mafia/SK. I called Curu out on something similar, and I'm calling Wiggles out on this now. Pyo continues accusing, but never voting, to put on pressure. Wiggles starts getting angsty, defensive, and even a bit upset I dare say. Notice the ad-homs coming out. + Show Spoiler + Are you sure about that? I'm starting to question if you read posts or just skim through them. There's no reason to do that at all. Name calling creates chaos and strife. We don't need that sort of atmosphere. I prefer logical to the emotional. I guess SKs/Mafia prefer different. That quote happened around 7/18 15:45. Wiggles doesn't post again until 7/19 2:16. Looking at the big picture of the day, Wiggles has done absolutely nothing. Generic advice and defense. Great. How useful. But he seems like town! No, no he doesn't. By the time Wiggles comes back, discussion has already taken place on new lynch candidates. New suspects. New post analyses to be done. Does Wiggles do any of that? No! He doesn't scum hunt! He jumps STRAIGHT to defending himself from Drazerk's accusation. Let's take a look. + Show Spoiler + I'm gonna address the case against me pretty quickly, but basically I'm being accused of talking about game mechanics for the first two hours of the game, and not scumhunting. (Game started 10KST, last quoted post at 11:57KST). This accusation is true, but shouldn't mark me as scummy, given that it's pretty hard to scum hunt in the first two hours of the game, as most people have yet to post, or have very few posts. Mechanics are just a starting point to get people talking at the beginning of the game, as there is very little else to talk about. Scumhunting begins from there. Notice, he says it's only 2 hours due to the last quoted post. Hahaha, he doesn't even try to give correct info. He had, in actuallity, 5 hours and 45 minutes worth of material to try and scum hunt off of, and THEN another 16 hours and 16 minutes of information to add in something with his defense. What does he do? He says he only had 2 hours. He LIED to strengthen his defense. Scum move, yes? The rest of his post talks about how the game started. Yeah, we all read that. That's not new information. Where's the scum hunting wiggles? Palmar calls him out on this. Palmar even stated there was no threat, and Wiggles didn't even need to defend. Oh, but defend he did. Just like earlier, with Pyo, he jumps on the defense and never attacks. He hints at attacks, like at Palmar (saying Palmar bandwagons) and SS (agreeing with Curu that SS lied), but he gives no analysis and he does not VOTE. HE'S NOT VOTING! He says Palmar is contradictory, and SS seems really suspicious and contradicted himself, yet he votes for neither. WHY? Because he doesn't want to commit to anything. No votes, no trails. Just soft hints. He's afraid to be wrong, to stick his head out, to provide information. Now, here's Wiggle's latest post. + Show Spoiler + I can do clue analysis if you want. The only problem with your plan though, is that the clues only point to specific mafia, not all of them, so there won't always be clue analysis available for each lynch. A lack of clue analysis is not absolving. Look. Once again he wants to do something without doing anything. Clue analysis doesn't need to point to anyone. It'll be vague. It'll be part of a team. You'll hide your opinion. It's IN THE FUTURE. Once again, this is not scum hunting. This is not taking a stance. This is being as unhelpful and uninformative as possible. Scum/SK play. So, after Wiggles stated that "there's a lot to talk about," that "he's re-reading the thread and taking notes on players," and that "we should keep a pro-town atmosphere," he has done none of those things. What a contradiction. I guess he's right that "scumhunting doesn't magically appear," especially not from scum. Join me, and vote Wiggles. Let's break up the bandwagons. Let's force him to take a stance. Let's force Mafia's hand and get them out amongst the townies. Most of all, let's lynch this killer. ##Vote Mr.Wiggles | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 10:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote: @Ferryman Ok, here's a question for you: "As the horror, what purpose does that post serve, as compared to not posting it at all?". You say that it's to put forward a plan that some idiotic Towny will use reverse psychology on in order to claim psychologist on day one. However, I'd disagree, because I wasn't pushing the plan and instead called it bad in my own post, baiting for someone to try to argue against me. So, then is it to establish myself as a townie with the first strong post of the game? You say that the horror will optimally try to establish himself as being very town, in order to dodge the lynch. I disagree with this again, though. By acting pro-town, the horror increases the chance that the mafia will visit him, because pro-town and active players are one of the highest hit priorities for mafia. The horror can't fake medic protection, since when mafia visit him, he kills the person he visits as well. Mafia will know as soon as they visit him the he's the horror, due to the redirection in KP, unless the Horror manages to stack on a mafia hit. Even then, it's not as good for him, because as medics die, or claim, it will become apparent that he was never protected. If mafia know who he is, they will make a case against him (which will necessarily be strong because they know they're correct), which is a bad thing for the horror. As I see it, optimal strategy for the horror is to avoid being hit for as long as he can without becoming too big of a lynch target. This means somewhat lurking or simply trying to blend in on Day 1 and maybe 2, to avoid early hits, before increasing his contributions on later days to stop from becoming a lynch target, hopefully far enough along that he can secure his victory before being shot. Acting as I was (before I was the target of analysis), actually goes against what I see as optimal horror play, as being active and trying to promote discussion is inherently pro-town (Or at least appears that way, as you say), and so increases my chances of being shot, on top of being one of the more veteran players. A better strategy would to be to lurk through Day 1, to avoid a hit, as the only reason for a hit in that scenario would be veteran status, which I believe is lower in priority than actual active and contributory townies. @Tnkted Can you explain why you think Palmar is scummy better? You seem convinced that you have a strong case, but I'm not liking your repetition of "It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.", as a mislynch is always bad for town. You seem to be downplaying the significance of it, such that you can seem convinced that you're correct, but if you're wrong, you don't take responsibility for it, since it's "only day 1, so no biggie". I fully disagree with your perception of how the horror should be playing. Amongst other things, the mafia won't make too much of an effort to make a case against the horror. You see, the mafia might go out of his way to make sure they lynch him, but they might not, as getting him lynched doesn't help as much as killing a townie. That is, for the EH doesn't count as a townie for the mafia's outnumbering condition, so killing him (especially since he sabotages the medic) is a worse play than getting a townie lynched. I am not going to argue with you anymore, however, I made my stance crystal clear, anyone who wants to read it can see it and decide, arguing with you is now only going to serve to clutter up the thread. On palmar, I fully agree with wiggles, that case is really floppy, and lynching on "scumtells" because its "only day 1, a mislynch is expected" is bad play. Make a more convincing case please. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 11:08 Navillus wrote: I hate meta arguments, and I hate lynching people for "scumslips" (being someone who helped mislynch someone for a supposed scumslip) so I'm just gonna throw in that I don't think that there's really a case to be made against either Wiggles or Palmar, also I have to agree with Wiggles on smart EA play, I was thinking about this before this whole fight and I can't see how the EA get's around the whole mafia knowing who he is if they ever take a shot at him thing, even if they don't make it priority number one they still want to win and will get around to tunneling him for a lynch eventually and that's very bad for the EA. I also think that Wiggles would have thought this through and arrived at a similar conclusion which would make most of Ferryman's case not work. Mafia don't have to kill the horror to win, just outnumber the remaining town. Thus lynching town is >>>>> than lynching the horror for them, since its one night less they have to use. As long as the psychologist is in play the mafia have no reason to care about the horror, at all. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
When the EH wins does the game immediately end? or is a joint victory possible. Is the EH considered a "threat to the town" for the purposes of the town wincondition | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 24 2011 11:08 Navillus wrote: I hate meta arguments On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game. Have you people even *looked* at Ver's guide on how to play town? In it you will see examples of foolishness, the supreme scum hunter, using "meta" arguments to support his case, much like I do here. Allow me to quote Ver On August 26 2010 13:08 Ver wrote: Past games matter a great deal for many reasons. Many players have claimed to have 'changed' their playstyles over time, and yes, superficially they have. But mafia ALWAYS have signs of being mafia, same for townies, and no matter what playstyle change happens. So much of what is used for behavior analysis is subconscious that really only a life-altering event would change someone so deeply that their past games would be useless. You simply must look deep and not just take everything at face value as core constants remain the same. Core constants, like an apologetic backtracking tone or trying to skirt responsibility are what my meta analysis shows and why its valuable. Anyone discarding it because its "just meta" needs to read Ver's guide one more time and realize that when analyzing things are not going to be just obvious. On August 24 2011 12:37 chaos13 wrote: 4. Ferryman, you've got a great case on wiggles, but with one problem. You designed that case to prove that he's the EA. What you should be doing is analyzing and then figuring out what he is. Because it was the cause and not the effect, I'm not yet convinced by it. I'll get something more detailed up tomorrow morning. Two things, this is flatly wrong, I read his posts, realized he was the EH and then showed how I reached that conclusion and supported it with evidence, the goal of my argument is to prove he is the EH, not discuss each and every possibility about what he could be or "how this is also possibly a town thought". The goal of an argument is to persuade and demonstrate, I'm not going to achieve that by going off on tangents and bringing up evidence that is not relevant to the case. That is part of the reason why PbP analysis fail, they bring up *every* *single* thing that has been said, rather than only taking the pieces that matter to the puzzle. On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote: I was specifically talking to ferryman, who, judging from the content of the post I was responding too, seemed to be placing an inordinate amount of importance on hitting scum day1 with a lynch. Every mislynch brings us closer to defeat. Hitting scum day 1 is just as important as hitting them day 2 and day 3, remember it doesn't matter when we mislynch, as every mislynch is a step closer to losing the game. Lynch right from the start, no excuses. On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote: I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch Seriously? A random lynch? This is a poor idea to say the least, with a random lynch we have a 4/13 chance of hitting scum, less because mafia get to help direct it, with strong town play and good analysis our chances of hitting scum are much greater. Not to mention a random lynch provides next to no information, as opposed to a hard fought lynch where there is discussion and analysis. Justify this idea better please. On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote: NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. Thank god I'm not the only person who sees this, if we get a chance to nail the EH we need to seize it, its a free extra day and the removal of a major threat. Why wouldn't we go for it? On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote: My apologies, I forgot that. ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles just for references sake, i made a list posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18 both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles. Also, we are done discussing crumbing, its a worthless discussion that is going to get us nowhere, our medic and psychologist are intelligent enough to figure out what they have to do, trying to lead them is only going to hinder them. I expect to hear no more discussion of crumbs, or voting for their targets or anything of the sort. Finally, I'm getting weird vibes from JeeJee, I need to go back and read up on his meta. JeeJee, what's the last game you rolled town (preferably a normal or mini)? I'm going to go check SNMMIII (i think that was the game) for your scum meta. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 25 2011 06:54 JeeJee wrote: this raises a better question why do you keep bringing up this idea of coordinating a psych decision? *everyone votes for psych to visit A* *psych has committed suicide* "Ah, A must be EA!" *Lynch A* *A is not EA because EA visited psych and not vice versa* Now what? you're here quite often, you make a lot of posts. but all i'm seeing is that you want to kill someone, and you don't care who as long as it's not yourself. i'm seeing useless lists and pushing flawed plans. i'm seeing nonsense. ##vote:cyber cheese So, do you think its more likely Cyber_Cheese is scum than Wiggles the EH? Remember we are here to kill scum, not stupid townies, no matter how stupid the townie may be. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote: Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles? No, because I'm pretty sure wiggles is the EH, and if we lynch the EH we get a free day. I also have yet to see people build a real case that proves he is mafia, so far all I have seen is "he has played stupid", witch brings us back to the rule of thumb. If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible. You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles? | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote: For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. Funny, I thought you said you thought I was the EH. What changed your mind? Also all those numbers are irrelevant, we know we have to lynch, and no one is going to allow a no-lynch to happen. That does *not* mean jumping on every possible vote that happens. You are the current voteleader, should we all vote for you as to not risk the possibility of a no lynch? Or should we look for the EH or scum and make our lynch count? Remember if we lynch a townie we bring the mafia a step closer to victory. Think before posting, lynching correctly is vital, and jumping on every bandwagon isn't going to achieve that. We could all pull a number out of a hat to pick who we lynch, how would that help bring us closer to victory? Of course not, it would provide no information, its the same deal with easy bandwagons, mafia can easaly blend in with arguments like the one you are making "oh, I didn't think he was mafia, but hey, I did it to avoid a no-lynch" Your justification is poor to say the least, step up your game. What made you change your mind about me being the EH? If you really think I am it is your duty to write an analysis that proves it and sell it to the rest of the town. You don't want to lynch anyone, just for the sake of lynching, you want to lynch scum. Otherwise you aren't town. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
Way to go wiggles, you have a silver tongue. This post however is entirely mistaken in its representation of the situation. Allow me to explain, scum hunting is like building a puzzle, you take all the pieces and assemble them into a single unified mindset that is behind the poster, you cannot take a single pieces and from it discern what it is you are up against, rather it is the net sum of the different pieces that allows you to see the whole picture. What you are doing in this post is deconstructing the arguments by looking at the pieces, rather than taking the unity of the set. You see its not one of the pieces alone that damns you, but the whole matrix of them. Now to deconstruct your post, my commentary in spoilers, as usual. On August 25 2011 07:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I posted that, because to me, his accusations feel very similar to the ones I faced all game long in Arkham Asylum. He thinks I'm trying to downplay the danger of the horror, so that must make me the horror. (When I'm only pointing out that he's not the biggest threat to town on day 1) People did the same thing in AA, saying that by me saying that Batman will attempt to act pro-town, I was trying to make him appear as a pro-town role, and so I myself must be Batman. + Show Spoiler + This is a mistaken parallelism, because acting pro-town is never a giveaway, trying to seem pro-town without actually being pro-town is. This parallel is wrong because what these people did was take an extrapolation of your behavior (being pro-town) and used that, on its own, to try to prove a case, when in reality the rest of the pieces did not fit. What happened here is I pointed out a single piece of behavior that is suggestive, but not by itself conclusive, but that when taken in combination with other points, proves you to be the EH He says that I'm opening with a general post talking about the set-up instead of scum hunting, when we are only several hours into the day, with very little to talk about, so a post like that is justified if it is the first one, in order to begin discussion. In AA, I was accused of being scum because I opened with such a post, and for "a lack of scum hunting", only 7 or so hours into the day. + Show Spoiler + Once again a *complete* misrepresentation, I said that its fine to spark discussion, but that the *way* you did it was not the way a town aligned player would have done it. There are two ways you could have done it, you could have begun with a plan as crappy as the one you mentioned, but not backtracked on it in which case it would have been a scum trap and an actual point of discussion, or you could have talked about the setup and lurkers without proposing a terrible EH favored plan, that allows scum to blend in by bashing it. You've been in enough games to know that that is a terrible, terrible idea. As scum in PTP I think it was, did you not enjoy making the town spend time shooting down terrible plans? He also says that I'm focusing too much on the horror and the psychologist, when in AA I was accused of focusing too much on the third parties, and so that must make me one myself. + Show Spoiler + I use it as a piece, again, not as a single argument, that focus by itself is not what gives you away. It's easy to see the parallels, and part of my reaction is exasperation, because it feels to me as though it's going to be a repeat of AA, where I'm going to have to fight off accusations of being a third party the entire game, and where my credibility will be shot, because of those same accusations. + Show Spoiler + Appeal to Emotion. Pity me, I'm so exasperated that people are calling me third party. You shouldn't have to stoop to this wiggles. If you are truly town, then please, analyze and help me find scum, surely in 10 pages there is enough information to get some headway Since when is it a sure sign of scum to express trepidation? I'm normally very unsure and indecisive, both in mafia, and as a person. The difference in AA, is that I had a gun with infinite ammo, so if someone was scummy enough, I could just shoot them dead. Even as town, you'll play differently between being different roles, like VT, medic, vig, vet, mason, etc. There's different priorities and mindsets with each, that will influence how you post and play. + Show Spoiler + Its a deeper thing. When you are town you feel fearless, you don't leave room for doubt in your posts. You own up to your ideas, even if they aren't the best. You take ownership. That whole post proposes a plan in a rather decisive way and then concludes no, it sucks, which as I have discussed is bad play. And you know it is, which means there is no reason you would do it, as town. You are correct about the different mindsets, and town wiggles is the most fearless of mindsets, from my reading, since you have nothing to lose. Also, no one has answered what advantage I would gain from even making my first post, if I was the EA. I started to write what I thought was a decent plan, then realized at the end that it was bad. However, instead of just deleting it and lurking, I decided to offer it up for discussion, to start people talking instead of being useless, and to fish for reactions. + Show Spoiler + I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way. I never said it was good, and never said it should be implemented. I also don't see how it's even possible to backtrack in one post. I made an objective plan, decided it was bad, but wanted to see how others reacted. The horror would try to argue with me, in order to see it implemented in some way, as it is beneficial for him. Scum are going to try to attack it, but also try to attack me, in order to appear to be contributing, and to lower my credibility while strengthening their own. It's scummy because I never actually proposed the plan be put into action, but by suggesting so, scum would have been able to make me look scummy and attack my credibility, furthering their objectives. + Show Spoiler + I've already stated how you went about this entirely the wrong way. By stating that you knew it was bad, no one was going to attack you, only bash the plan, and detail why its terrible, which *anyone* scum or town can do. As well, something I think needs to actually be discussed and addressed in this game, is lurkers. What do people think should be done about them? Normally, we can just threaten to have a vig clear them out, but since in this game there are no vigs (besides Insane Medic, after a fashion), we're going to have to find a new way to promote discussion. Threatening lynch is one way to do it, but as this is a mini, spending lynches on hard to analyze lurkers might not be the best way to go, as it lets scum bandwagon and influence in such a way that we will likely only kill townies. We have several players with very few, short, posts, so I think we should address it before it becomes too much of a problem. What do others think? + Show Spoiler + I'm all for lynching lurkers, if I don't have a better target, like say the EH, which is facing me right now. Either way, I'm done arguing with you, please don't misrepresent my arguments again, so I wont have to write walls of text. On August 25 2011 08:16 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Notice how ferryman made someone else take responsibility? It's the one same thing he's been accusing MrWiggles of no less /facepalm. I'm not the one pushing to get you lynched, I'm not even voting for you, how is it *my* responsibility? | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 25 2011 08:46 Jackal58 wrote: If anybody ever accuses me of tunneling again I'm going to bitch slap them. Ferryman we get it. You think Wiggles is the EH. You may very well be right. Guess what? Right now I don't care about the EH. But you sure as hell do. You are either the psych or scum. I know you have a very good grasp on how this game works. You are also on the opposite end of the brilliance spectrum from Cyber_cheese. Put your efforts into something other than tunneling your EH suspect. Please. I'm filtering all of you from most to least interesting so I'm going to be a while. Lynching the EH gives us a free day, which is why I want him dead. It also removes a major threat. But fair enough, I'll lay off wiggles, I've made my case abundantly clear by now. On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote: At the moment, my views hinge on two important people 1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles. 2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed. Your logic is simplistic, you are aware townies can be wrong, are you not? And as town we have to defend those we think to be town, sometimes that means we end up lynching town and townies sometimes end up defending scum. You are making ties which are simply incorrect. @Wiggles, you ask me for scum-reads, well, so far you are the only one that sticks out to me, I'm suspicious of JeeJee, but I haven't yet caught up with his meta (reading through games takes a while), however I certainly have my eye on him. Most other people have not posted enough or posts that have enough content at least that I can have a strong read on them. I agree that Eiii lurking is bad, but its certainly not out of character, look at sleeper cell mafia where he has a grand total of about 4 posts day 1. I'd actually be ok with lynching him, to establish a precedent of killing lurkers and to promote a more discussion favored atmosphere, but only if we can't get 7 people to vote for you. Anyway, I'm off for quite a while now, so I'll answer questions when I get back. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
Ladies and Gentlemen, it seems like we have allowed ourselves to get distracted from what really matters, from lynching correctly, out of fear, fear of being wrong. I know my case against wiggles has failed to convince some of you. That was... to be expected. Which is why, when I designed my case, I built a trap around it, and ambush into which only a player who is not town aligned would fall. And I must say, Mr.Wiggles fell into the trap, with what could almost be called gusto. So without further ado ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/IfiVt.png) Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is it that mafia hate? They hate being in the spotlight, but most of all they hate being in the spotlight accused as mafia. In fact they'd much rather be considered third party than mafia (see Bumatlarge claiming SK in PTP mafia). The rationale behind it is simple, a third party is less of a threat to the town than the mafia, hence less likely to be killed. Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be town. I clearly made him out to be the horror. Wiggles never called me out on this. A couple other players did, notable chaos13 and Jackal58, but Wiggles did not, he avoided bringing up the issue at all. All he had to do to discredit my argument was say "why does the ferryman not even consider the possibility that I am mafia? Does he know something I don't?" and I would have believed he was town. However, this dosen't happen. Why? Because wiggles is scum and the last thing he wants is to redirect the attention of an analyst to the possibility that he might be mafia. Remember he has more cred and can more easily wiggle out of the lynch as long as people are convinced he is the horror, rather than scum. Allow me to quote one little tidbit On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game. Wiggles is aware that I haven't called him mafia, and he *brings attention to it* without using it to discredit my argument as to avoid a shift in focus Wiggles is not happy with being called out on being the EH, however to him its still better than being called scum. There is exactly one post where he mentions any possibility that he could be mafia, and that's to "prove" that the mafia would hunt for the EH day 1, which obviously wiggles cannot be, since he isn't hunting the EH, just the soft target Eiii. Wiggles is not only not reacting the way a townie would, he's milking my accusation to dodge the possibility of being called mafia and by extension, the lynch. Wiggles. Scum? Now, having this fact in mind, combined with the surprising number of people that defended wiggles from my accusation of being the EH, lets revisit the accusations I made, this time considering the possibility that wiggles could be mafia. Lets take his first post, one more time. On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote: ##Vote: Eiii Where you at? + Show Spoiler + http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtrEN-YKLBM Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. Discuss! Lets take a careful look at two major points that take place in this post. 1.) Wiggles posts an extremely pro-EH and pro-mafia plan that is going to allow scum to blend in 2.) Wiggles backtracks on his extremely anti-town plan. And proposes another plan that is also anti-town Point by point now. How is the plan both EH and Mafia favored. Its clear how it helps the EH, and I discussed that in depth, but many people might miss how it helps the mafia. It keeps our attention occupied. Let us say we go through with this plan, and the psychologist claims, and then immediately dies. All of the next day would be spent arguing about lynching the psychologist's target and basically discussing the EH. Which is something that allows the mafia to blend in easily. This whole idea and point of discussion isn't furthering town goals, its giving scum something easy to discuss. The backtracking, ah the backtracking, I believe I've already talked about that to death, however lets revisit the point once more, for those too lazy to go back and find what I said, backtracking is a method of dodging responsibility if any stupid townies follow the plan, as well as sabotaging the whole point of proposing a plan for discussion. It is also a trait scum wiggles often exhibits, as proven in my analysis of his third party play (there is a reason I chose Insane mafia 2 for my meta example, where the 3rd party was like a scum team, with no fear of getting shot, much like in this game) The crumbs, or "how the mafia is going to find the doctor". This is a plan that seems innocuous at first, but then you realize the mafia will have an information advantage, in fact this means that if there is ever a successful save the medic is *dead*, given away by his breadcrumbs. If the medic lies then he's risking getting lynched if things don't add up later. This whole idea just makes our medic vulnerable and pushes attention onto the EH over mafia. Remember, the moment the psychologist dies the town is going to be in an uproar discussing his "crumbs", even if we have scum looking right at us, most of the town is going to ignore it. Also worth mentioning is wiggles explicitly "pressure" vote, which after playing in PYP:I wiggles knows are worthless, since there is no chance of dying of a pressure vote, the victim doesn't feel pressured. Wiggles was there for the postgame, where Ace spelled this out. I doubt he's forgotten so fast, so the logical conclusion is that he is doing this to blend in. So, lets summarize. 1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear 2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking 3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same. 4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored. That doesn't seem *that* compelling, right? Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and look at another post. Before we do that though this jumped at me On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia. Wiggles *knows* better than this, he's played with foolishness and other players who excel at using meta to analyze players. The fact that he says this which he and I both know is wrong, shows to me that he cares more about defending himself than letting facts be set straight. The fact that he has the gall to bring up shallow meta about how he always gets called out day 1, rather than beating my arguments on their own merits shows desperation and more than a little bit of anger . This isn't the town wiggles who rebuts accusations with a level head. I smell fear. I found a true gem here. On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself. We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information. I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because: I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think. What does this post boil down to? Ferryman called me the EH, therefore behave as if I were such. Remember the point about milking my accusation? This is exactly what this post does, it takes it and uses the accusation I made to plant a false idea that lynching wiggles is not the optimal play, and that "wiggles cannot be scum". This is manipulation at its finest gentlemen, this is wiggles taking all possible outcomes and twisting them so that the only possible verdict keeps him from being lynched. Notice how he also uses this post to discredit anyone who accuses him of being the EH since "only mafia want to hunt the EH day 1". This post successfully exhibits *exactly* what scum is going to do when accused of being 3rd party. Also, wiggle's accusation of Palmar is weak as hell. Wiggles and I both know there is no way Palmar stuck his neck out like that to save tnkted, unless palmar is town. Palmar usually has no issue busing his teammates, you really think he would force a no-lynch and become a focus of accusations if he were scum? Once again wiggles is trying to distract us from himself by "scumhunting" with one of the weakest cases I have ever seen. Wiggles also shows a strange fascination with lurkers not present in his usual play. For example in XLII wiggles consistently voted and focused on lurkers, stuff like, while pushing around suspicion with questions. Note that wiggles was the GF that game. + Show Spoiler + On June 17 2011 10:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Well, I'm back now, before the flip too. ILJ seems to have come back in full force, and I'm going to be taking my vote off of him. His recent posting makes me believe that he's likely to be green. There's also been a new candidate, who's name has been raised as a potential lynch target, Hiro. However, I'm not sure that he's mafia either, based off the "slips" people are saying he's made. I don't think that he's scum, more so than pushing for policy lynching inactives, in a very badly worded way. GG still hasn't shown up, or made any contributory posts. That said, keeping people like him around, who will be impossible to read, isn't going to help us in this game. So, instead of voting for two people I find likely to be green, I'm going to switch my vote to GG, who I see as more a 50-50 chance of being red, and who is impossible to read otherwise. ##Unvote: ilovejonn ##Vote: GrassGiraffe On June 18 2011 13:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'd be interested in hearing from DeMorcerf too. He was actually brought up as a potential lynch candidate on Day 1, along with GG, and Lazorbear, but after making a couple posts, all scrutiny was removed, and people seemed to forget about him, more or less. This seems a bit odd for me, considering people were going to lynch him for lurking, that he was forgotten after two posts, while still continuing to lurk. Like I said, I'm interested in hearing more from you. On June 16 2011 13:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: For reference, people who haven't posted/contributed since Day 1 post: Impervious Node hiro protagonist GGQ grassgiraffe (Likely Modkill, no posts) mig LandenC (1 post in game) Jacinto (1 post in game) Lazorbear (1 post in game) RebirthofLegend This list actually makes me a little sad, because more than half of these people have played before, or are veterans, but we still have terrible activity. Does that ring any bells? Has wiggles been pushing and pressuring lurkers as a means to try to bring the focus off of himself? (hint the answer is yes) I could make this post a lot longer but most of what I said about wiggle's third party meta applies to his scum meta, in fact go back and read this post, replacing the words "third party" with "scum" and you'll get a pretty exact idea of what his meta is. TL:DR In summary wiggles is scum because he 1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear 2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking 3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same. 4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored. 5.) Proceeds to milk my argument in an attempt to make sure he isn't lynched 6.) Goes after the "easy" target that are lurkers. 7.) Attacks Palmar, for doing something no sane scum would ever do. Wiggles is anything but town. He might be the EH he might be mafia, he isn't a townie, that's for damn sure So, to all those who concluded "lets ignore wiggles, he is obviously the EH", now would be a good time to move your vote over to him, because wiggles is anything *but* town at this point. My only doubt is that he might really be the EH rather than mafia, but either way, he certainly isn't town + Show Spoiler [ Mr.Wiggles] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/9uEwy.jpg) TheFerryman PS. I'll probably be gone for the next 24 hours, lynch wiggles for me. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 26 2011 08:14 TheFerryman wrote: Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be scum. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
Amusingly enough JeeJee was next on my list to analyze, for his staunch refusal to comment on wiggles at all. I'll take a look at him next, but for today, wiggles must die. Remember that Palmar, who is now dead, fully supported this lynch. ##Vote: Mr.Wiggles | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
I agree, JeeJee decided to troll without being spotted, and lo and behold, it backfired. I can side with that lynch. ##Unvote ##Vote: JeeJee If he was just town and trolling I'm going to be... upset. I'm also in the middle of Irene, so I may vanish for an undetermined amount of time. Then again, I might not. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
On August 28 2011 14:11 JeeJee wrote: can you believe i'm actually getting lynched for this nonsense? blah i'm going to sleep. if i wake up and everyone's still hell-bent on voting me for no reason, i am going to do something terrible I suggest you think twice before "doing something terrible", you might regret it in the future. I will just point out you brought this down on yourself. I'm posting this from my phone since power is out, depending on if I get power back or not I'll try to be around tomorrow. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
TheFerryman Returns! First of all, apologies for being out, I've been without power, rained on, flooded, and generally unable to post for the last two days. I'll make up for that now, by giving you the third scum, first of all Wiggles is still scum he should, without a doubt, be our lynch tomorrow. If anyone needs me to restate my arguments or has a compelling reason why I might be wrong they should let me know, but JeeJee's behavior, pretty much seals the deal there, especially his mention that I am "tunneling" and his refusal to comment on my case on wiggles. I should not need to say more on that topic, but if you want me to, feel free to ask. However I would like to present my next scumsuspect, the candidate for the third anti-town member, chaos13, could we get an applause for this man? He has so far presented what to a casual observer might seem like a pro-town facade, but is in reality just scum trying to blend in. Lets present my case, point by point chaos13: called out by dead scum ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/JgRpZ.jpg) The post that first called my attention to chaos13 was made by none other than our esteemed, late, JeeJee when "trying to deflect the wagon off himself" as chaos will argue. This is the post in question. Why did it make me notice chaos13, a player I had till that point decided was town? Because JeeJee was doing damage control, when JeeJee's breadcrumb was caught, he knew, as did any good player, that he was fucked, there was literally no way to squirm out of that. Any smart scum in that situation would try to generate misinformation by "accusing" a scumbuddy, allowing the buddy to later get some credence by having been attacked by confirmed scum. This is damage control 101, and it immediately made me re-read everything chaos13 had posted so far in the thread, I also took the time to read up on his meta. For now let us consider this a point against chaos13, the fact that confirmed scum accused him when they were almost certain to get lynched. Now, let us take a look at what chaos13 has actually posted so far. Chaos13's Posts There are a few posts by chaos13 that at first don't seem to stand out, but that, when looked at show scum behavior. It was this post that deepened my suspicions. Since its such a long post, I'm going to quote it in bits, and comment on the pieces that are relevant, while skipping those that are not. On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote: Warning - Wall of text on JeeJee. If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA. This is... *fascinating*. Let me ask you all a question, when as town have you ever felt the need to strengthen the accusation on someone who already has the vast majority of the votes? The correct answer is *never*, what is the point of making an accusation of someone who is already going to be lynched? Especially if there is no counter wagon forming? there is none. Unless of course your goal is to farm credit by affirming how you *knew* he was scum, and pointing to your "analysis". This is particularly relevant because its the exact inverse of what JeeJee did, its an attempt to set up a dichotomy that didn't exist, it is a distancing attempt. That is the second strike against chaos13. He actively tries to distance himself from JeeJee Next chaos13 has the *kindness* of summarizing things we can already read, in an attempt to fluff up his post and make it seem longer and more pro-town, much the same way bad players or scum include every post by a player in their analysis to buff it up. This isn't necessarily scummy, just bad, I'm not going to hold it against him. On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote: This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however. Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?" My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing. JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game. I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? The simple answer to question 2 is - *drumroll* sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy. So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can. My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee. Here I cut out the whole WIFOM crap about hitting Palmar at night and JeeJee's "suspicion's" of wiggles (read, distancing), because they are not relevant. Instead I am going to talk about a very basic concept of mafia, that is associations between players, and more specifically how mafia behave. Mafia avoid talking about other mafia players, they feel guilty and want to avoid incriminating their partners in crime by not talking about them when they can possibly avoid it. In fact I became suspicious of JeeJee, because he didn't comment on wiggles, while he was willing to comment on Cheese, and on breadcrumbs, and to a lesser extent, Syvern. In fact, the fact that he ignored both wiggles and the Palmar/chaos discussion, makes me almost sure of these two reads. I think tnkted is town, and JeeJee was trying to get a link between Syvern and tnkted by "discrediting" jackals, link, notice how he doesn't provide any arguments, just bashes it, that's one way of calling attention to a link without being associated with it. chaos13, is simply carrying this idea forward, he is pushing a simplistic approach to catch mafia, he is insisting that because JeeJee defended someone, the person he defended must be scum. this is simplistic not only simplistic, but its downright pushing a bad lynch. Reading over past games, chaos13 is not afraid to push bad lynches in fact its one of the reasons why he is good scum, he is great at providing bs analysis to get somewhat scummy players who are not scum lynched. A side by side comparison of a post from another game where chaos13 was scum and a post this game. Here is his accusation of Munk-E from mafia XLII, where chaos13 was scum + Show Spoiler + On August 06 2011 13:09 chaos13 wrote: So, Munk-E, our resident lurker. He has a grand total of seven - that's right, SEVEN posts in the game up to date. Lurking is defined as anti-town by every player of mafia, and this guy is giving a top-level course in it right now. He was almost modkilled for his lack of posting. Post #1 + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2011 11:07 Munk-E wrote: But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected. That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them. As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia. In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me. This post is, obviously, addressing sandroba's plan. The majority of it is logical, makes sense, and doesn't seem to push a mafia agenda really. One thing doesn't sit will with me, however, and that is where he casts suspicion on multiple medic claims. At this point, he shouldn't have a clue as to the setup. It's as if he is setting town up for something that will come later, which would most likely be the mafia GF (JeeJee, anyone?) claiming medic. The mafia team can then push for a lynch on the real medic with support from town, if this seed planted by Munk-E grew at all. Post #2 + Show Spoiler + On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote: Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later. Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway. As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is? So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it! Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works... this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue. Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing! Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum. Note that here he promises more analysis later. I would like to bring everyone's attention to the very last paragraph of this. Paraphrased: "Varp is scum because he's wishy washy. This doesn't make him scum for sure, but it's really suspicious. However, I can't call him scum from this, but he's possible scum." This is a clear bus on a teammate, and he's labeling varp scum for the same behavior he is displaying. Post #3 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote: K here's mig's portfolio analyzed. Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch. Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy. He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone. He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy. Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not. (P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.) This analysis came almost a full 24 hours after he promised it. Takes time to figure out how to call a town player scum, doesn't it? To begin with, this is an aggressive analysis against a player who has arguably been one of the most pro-town voices in the thread. After all, Mig called varp out before anyone else and was the driving force behind his lynch. Take a look at the second paragraph of this analysis. He calls Mig out for voting Varp on the reason that he thought he was scum for being wishy washy. Remember that analysis of Varp? Main point was that he was wishy washy. Contradiction! Hypocrisy! Scum! Next, he blames varp for PM'ing people and discussing stuff with them. lol. Then he says he responded blandly and generically. LOL. Then he says he doesn't see how being active is a town trait. LMAO This is so scummy it's almost funny. Post #4 All I can really say is +1 to BC. Makes absolutely no sense. Post #5 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 06:01 Munk-E wrote: Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to ##vote Varpulis Took a while to actually get around to a vote, especially after that big analysis on him that was done before. Reluctant to bus your scumbuddy, eh? Post #6 + Show Spoiler + On August 04 2011 06:33 Munk-E wrote: -____- you're voting for varp as well. The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute. TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway. You think both are scum, and yet you think it would look suspicious to vote for lucid? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Post #7 + Show Spoiler + On August 05 2011 07:58 Munk-E wrote: Lucidity analysis! this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you. Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point. Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing! By this point, most people were against the plan. Yeah... I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum. This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder! Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia. In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this. P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule. This analysis is relatively weak, and what do we get at the end of it? A complete inconclusive. A repeat of his "Yeah, could be, but I don't know". Serious scum right here. Conclusion: Munk-E is Mafia We take him out tonight or tomorrow without hesitation. Does a post like that look familiar, have we seen one like it in the past? + Show Spoiler + On August 25 2011 12:07 chaos13 wrote: tnkted To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote. ...and a crumb is worth an unvote. And then a realization that it could have been a faked crumb is worth voting again. Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond. So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say. 1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either. 2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out. 3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything. tnkted is mafia. Oh, yes we have. Look at how similar these two posts are, how focused and convinced, not a shadow of doubt in the accusations. Full conviction, ownership, all of these *not* scum signs, yet despite it he is scum. What that means is we cannot use chaos13's tone as a determinant. Lets look at the differences between his accusation of munk-e in XLII and his accuastion of GMarshal in PTP1, where our good friend chaos13 was town + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2011 23:05 chaos13 wrote: I am going to be voting for GMarshal. There was minimal pressure on Mataza, and there really wasn't any chance of him actually being chosen as the lynch for today based just on what was going on at the beginning of the thread. If GMarshal flips red, we can rest assured that Mataza is red as well. I see no reason for a townie to so quickly move to defending someone they should be suspicious of. Just because he played strangely in one game doesn't mean he will in another. So far Mataza's posting seems fairly solid to me. I don't really see where a townie would be coming from with this. A mafia member would definitely want information/policy vigi shots rather than successful scum hits. What is even better about this post from a mafia perspective is that if they are called out on it, they can pass it off as a bad townie plan. However, many people have stated that GMarshal is a good player, and I do not think he would make a plan like this without understanding exactly how it works. I really don't know what to think of this post. I know Kurumi has been contributing well now, and that at the time of this post he was discussing the pros/cons of roleclaims and potential scenarios in which it could be useful. GMarshal also claims here (I think?). The middle of this post seems rather average, and the last bit is questionable again. Remember that lurkers can just as easily be town as scum. What we really want to be doing is sifting through the active players looking for scum. With lurkers, there is no way to differentiate between lurking town and lurking scum. The active players have given us more than enough to go on though. All in all, this is an extremely weak post for a townie, and a passable one for a mafia. At first I saw nothing wrong with this post, and even answered it myself. Then someone explained how it is scummy. It goes something like this 1. Mafia will avoid wasting a shot on that player if they are town. If they are mafia they will kill the player who said it. 2. Mafia will be inclined to kill this player. 3. Wat? Doesn't make any sense for a townie to ask this unless it is part of their role, which I really really doubt. 4. This one is the most pro-town question, but can also work for mafia. If Town: -Gives more input -Creates mores discussion and analysis If Mafia: -Gives mafia team an idea on who they can push for a lynch -Gives mafia team an idea if any of their players are standing out The rest of his posts have been relatively useless. They created some minor discussion without actually forcing GM to contribute. As for votes, he has gone from Torte de Lini to Barundar, both times stating it is a pressure vote, but neither time trying to get other people to help him pressure vote. Why is this scummy? Look at the majority of players. They are trying to catch scum and vote for the players they think are scummy. What GM is doing is getting in his vote without resulting in suspicion cast on him when he tries to push for a townie lynch and they flip green. If someone calls him out on it he can say "But I was pressuring lurkers!". It is a tactic I used often as scum in a game on UG. In conclusion, GM has had a few pro-mafia points in his posts, and the rest are a way of contributing without contributing. His votes are not useful to town, but he is able to pass them off as in town's best interests if questioned. I feel he is a player that has managed to fly just under the radar for the whole game, and that we really need to put some pressure on him. As I have mentioned before, read every one of his posts considering why he would say what he has if he was mafia and if he was town. ##Vote GMarshal What is the chief difference between the first two posts and the last one? The last one, takes time to consider how a townie would think and contrasts it with GMarshal's behavior (he was wrong as it happened), but the first two only point out mafia heuristics, rather than trying to go into any depth as to what the motivation behind the posts is. that is, his analysis as town attempts to be deep while his analysis as scum is both shallow and easy to fake. This is a difference in the thought pattern, in the first two posts chaos13 is going for the *easy* points, while in the second one he is going for motivations. This is an essential intrinsic difference and a clear giveaway of chaos13's real alignment. There is also the difference in target level, in PTP chaos13 wasn't afraid to go after a vet like GMarshal, yet in this game he has stuck to lower level players, like Svyern and tnkted, who aren't as hard to focus on. Since we were just talking about heuristics, lets look at chaos13's Post like On August 27 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote: I wasn't convinced of his case on Mr. Wiggles. It was a whole bunch of meta that, while useful in some situations, didn't actually hold up in this case. Where he makes statements ("didn't actually hold up") without supporting them are clear and obvious attempts at discrediting an argument, without providing supporting evidence. Accusing me of being the EH, which he does earlier is an example of the same, my argument against wiggles is too tight for him to take down on his own, so he is going to instead try to discredit me. This is scum 101 folks, if you can't kill the argument, discredit the person behind it. On August 27 2011 22:01 chaos13 wrote: Are you intentionally trying to screw over town by wasting extensions and lynches? Doing my best Palmar, but I am exhausted right now. I'll have more time for this game in a day or two. Once again discrediting a town player, who chaos13 himself admitted earlier he thought was town, also giving excuses, when town doesn't need to justify itself. These are all relatively shallow tells but when taken with other evidence they seal the deal for me. the TL:DR For the lazy chaos13 has 1.) Been distanced by confirmed scum 2.) tried to milk the same scum lynch for minor credit 3.) Made shallow links between players 4.) Posted analysis in a style similar to his scumstyle and dissimilar to his town style 5.) Shown several minor "scumtells" or heuristics, including defending wiggles, who is scum 6.) has attempted to discredit me in order to avoid having to defend wiggles from the body of my accusations conclusion, chaos13 is scum I want to lynch him right after we kill wiggles, (wiggles first of course). TheFerryman, scumkiller supreme, out. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
I don't expect to be around to see it. I remind the rest of the town to lynch wiggles whatever happens. Do not let him squirm out of it, avoiding the spotlight like he has been. Chaos13 can go after. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/loyDF.jpg) goodnight Everyone Charon, the Ferryman. | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + nail the bastards for me! | ||
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
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TheFerryman
United States39 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/2F0FN.jpg) | ||
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