Cosmic Horror Mafia

Wait, didn't someone say something about the doc debuff being cancelled because of the extra mafia? Or was that not official? And while I'm talking about a docs powers, doc cant heal the psychologist from suicide can he?

Every night you can protect one player against mafia NK

1. Sanity is used in this game. Unless your role PM specifically states so, you will not be notified when your sanity changes mid-game. All players at beginning of the game are guaranteed to be sane.

On August 25 2011 02:03 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright sorry for actually mentioning visiting someone, didn't see the cons on breadcrumbing

Breadcrumbing summary:
The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb

The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit

So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH

On August 25 2011 02:07 Forumite wrote:

JeeJee, could you please explain how you reasoning here?

On August 24 2011 21:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
The town has no way of knowing for sure who is the mafia nor the eldritch horror.
It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that.
I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror
That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same.

I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so
##Unvote

Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think?
I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go
##Vote: TheFerryman

Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat.

Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game.

On August 25 2011 02:31 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


My apologies, I forgot that.

##Unvote

##Vote MrWiggles

just for references sake, i made a list

posts so far since the game started
1. Mr. Wiggles 5
2. Cyber_Cheese 12
3. Sevryn 8
4. TheFerryman 12
5. chaos13 5
6. Palmar 14
7. Navillus 5
8. Eiii 2
9. JeeJee 2
10. Jackal58 11
11. Forumite 8
12. Erandorr 11
13. tnkted 18

both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar
scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares

On August 25 2011 02:46 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look
In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies

On August 25 2011 02:28 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves
essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit
psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych
if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b
if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50
I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50

On August 25 2011 06:33 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


this raises a question
Can visiting roles choose to do nothing?
If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home

On August 25 2011 07:33 Navillus wrote:
Ferryman would you be open to lynching cyber today then wiggles?

On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH
Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH
I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game
As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum?
There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch:
1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable
2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town
3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one
4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day
5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below

On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects.
Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.

Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches
1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected
2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect
3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight
4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies
5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)

5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.

The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary)
1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped
2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it
3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night
4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad
5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)

Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others
Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight?
There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress)
There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both
if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum
note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych

This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.

On August 25 2011 07:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH
Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH
I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game
As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum?
There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch:
1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable
2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town
3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one
4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day
5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below

On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects.
Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum.

Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches
1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected
2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect
3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight
4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies
5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?)

5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that.

The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary)
1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped
2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it
3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night
4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad
5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check)

Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others
Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight?
There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress)
There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both
if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum
note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych

This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard.

On August 24 2011 21:19 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I find it strange that Tnkted found more reason to vote for Palmar than Navillus, and in fact let Navillus' whole first post slide.
Am I alone here?

On August 25 2011 08:42 Cyber_Cheese wrote:


At the moment, my views hinge on two important people
1) If MrWiggles turns out not to be the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be the eldritch himself. On the off-chance Wiggles isn't the eldritch, then I believe Ferryman to be town, based off various arguments that Ferryman has made against wiggles.
2) If Tnkted is mafia, I believe Navillus to also be mafia because Tnkted chose to ignore what Navillus said at the start of day 1 about being a townie, before looking a few posts further and voting Palmar based off his joke, this would also make Palmar innocent in my eyes. Again, this is perfectly inversed.

On August 25 2011 07:41 TheFerryman wrote:If you are going to lynch cyber I want someone who is going to take responsibility for the lynch, rather than have a bunch of people push a green lynch and then say "he was stupid anyway, its his fault" and no-one ends up being responsible.

You want him lynched Navillus? Are you willing to own up to it if he flips green? Why is the case against him more convincing than the case against wiggles?

On August 25 2011 21:24 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
The more I think about it, the more I think Tnkted is much in the same boat that I put myself in to, he took his intial theory a little bit too far and spoke too much
That said, I'm keeping my vote on him because of two reasons:
1) He might actually be scum
2) I have to have a vote placed and he's still what I consider the safest bet

On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon

+ Show Spoiler [Breadcrumbing Revisited] +

Thoughts? Opinions?

On August 26 2011 09:35 Sevryn wrote:

Nope Nope Nope Nope Nope.
Psych visit who you want to visit but if we tell the psych to visit Wiggles for one Wiggles is someone who has a higher chance than normal to be the EA IMO and by telling the Psych who to visit each day the EA visits someone else and his job of find the psych goes twice as fast making his win condition easier to fulfill.

On August 26 2011 10:27 JeeJee wrote:


who would you like psych to visit?

same question @ eii

On August 26 2011 14:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote:


I'd be fine with that. The only way it screws up is if EA visits him randomly, or if mafia shoot him. He should make up his own mind about who he wants to visit, though.

On August 26 2011 19:13 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
On the candidate pool:

Wiggles first-
We should lynch someone believed to me mafia overnight, while the psych should visit MrWiggles tonight and if he rocks up insane(+dead by logical extension), we know Ferrymans arguments have a solid base
While lynching the Eldritch is a great move for town, a day 1 that's extended via Eldritch lynch isn't as useful as say extending day 3/4
At this point, it's a bad idea to introduce people that don't already have votes

On August 28 2011 06:34 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I'm not entirely convinced on JeeJee.for two reasons
1) he could be trolling as town, out of boredom or something
2) if he's been using it as code, who were the recipients? surely theres some more examples, maybe even people replying?
point 1) is weakened by his reply after it was spotted

At this point, I think wiggles is clean:
If I were the mafia, I'd choose someone intelligent, active, and that was trying to get an innocent lynched

On August 28 2011 07:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I went back through and tried to look for other examples from JeeJee, they don't exsist.
That umad just looks so forced though...
##Vote JeeJee

On August 28 2011 12:21 Cyber_Cheese wrote:

Good question...
Are we able to turn the other half of the day into an extension and make up for the one we burned if 12/12 vote him?

On August 28 2011 20:17 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Well this is a really slow day, I'm sure we could be doing something productive instead of just being content with lynching JeeJee.

Lets get some discussion going:
At this point in time, who do you think is town, and why?

I mentioned earlier that


Palmar was the perfect example of this, and that's a part of why I think wiggles is town.

Ferryman and Tnkted both pushed hard for a target to be lynched on day 1, Wiggles and Palmar respectively, harder than I believe a scum would on day 1, so I think they are town.

People I want to hear more of:
Sevryn, Eiii, Chaos

On August 29 2011 07:58 JeeJee wrote:


but i'm a psychologist

On August 30 2011 02:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Psychologist visit Jackal.

If Jackal is the Psychologist, visit Chaos13.

On August 29 2011 21:33 Jackal58 wrote:

Really? And what brings you to that conclusion? My belief that scum are more dangerous to us than the EA at this stage of the game? I suggest you look at the two people with the least amount of posts in this game. One of them is the EA.

On August 30 2011 07:10 chaos13 wrote:


I would suggest the Psychologist don't visit Jackal, precisely because he is the EA. I'm going to vote Jackal tomorrow and be pushing for his lynch, so what is the point in causing our psych to kill himself by visiting Jackal?

On August 29 2011 22:09 chaos13 wrote:


No, it's that you spent 3 hours looking for breadcrumbs. I know you've given an explanation already, but I'm not buying it. I can see taking 3 hours looking back through the thread and trying to analyze while you wait for him to call, but why were you looking for breadcrumbs? Let's go through each role and see what motivation they would have for that.

Townie - No logical reason. Maybe they're looking for psych/doctor, but what will they do with that information? They have no way to figure out if it is a lie or not, since anyone can breadcrumb anything when the role PM's are in the OP.

Doctor - Looking for psych so they can protect them. Unfortunately, this possibility is ruled out since Palmar already flipped doc.

Psychologist - Same as Townie. EA sure as hell isn't going to breadcrumb their role, and players don't know if they're sane or not so they can't crumb whether or not they've been visited. No point in it.

Mafia - Looking for doc or (maybe) psychologist to take them out early on.

EA - After there had been a plan or two pushed for that included the psychologist breadcrumbing their role, this makes perfect sense. Maybe the psych is an inexperienced player who did it before understanding how the plan was detrimental, or maybe they're an experienced player who did the same. EA wants to remove the only barrier to their win condition as soon as possible. Visit the psych, and you've reduced the number of sane players by 1 and also prevented future obstacles. The psych is the only one likely to have breadcrumbed (except mafia :p ) and now that the doc is dead the EA is the only one likely to be looking for it.


So the only two roles that it actually seems reasonable to spend so much time searching for crumbs are anti-town. Even in games as mafia when I was searching for crumbs to find blue roles I never spent that much time, and in this setup there are no hugely anti-mafia power roles.
As far as mafia is concerned, the psych helps them if they are visited by EA. This is the only logical conclusion. Jackal found JeeJee's post, and figured he could gain some town cred by pointing it out.

On September 02 2011 00:23 Forumite wrote:
Mr. Wiggles - visit?
Cyber_Cheese
Sevryn
TheFerryman
chaos13 - visit?
Palmar
Navillus
Eiii
JeeJee - visit?
Jackal58 - visit?
Forumite
Erandorr
tnkted

Odd, of the players that the Psych was asked to visit, it´s only Jackal and Chaos13 that still live, and Night 2 voting were confused enough that we can´t know who of those two that actually got the visit. Wiggles and JeeJee turned out to be scum and got lynched, so the visit on Wiggles was wasted.

With the switch in player, Erandorr will be even harder to read. I want the Psych to visit him tonight.

##Visit Erandorr

On September 02 2011 11:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
EA needs every living person to be insane, if the psych visits EA there is still 7 people alive assuming worst case scenario and a maximum of 6 will be insane, but if you use one of those values you have to subtract1 from the other because it assumes who the mafia visit

##Visit Kurumi

If Kurumi's psych, then

##Visit Eiii

On September 02 2011 08:04 Jackal58 wrote:
4 People have died and all 4 have been sane. That makes me think the EA has been inactive

On September 03 2011 10:12 Forumite wrote:
The thread has slowed down.

With 8 players left, we need 5 votes to get a lynch. We were slow with getting the voting going yesterday, so going right ahead now.

##Vote tnkted

On September 05 2011 01:30 Forumite wrote:
Visiting Sevryn/wherebugsgo sounds good, without a good read, perhaps we can at least eliminate him as a possible EA.

On August 27 2011 07:27 tnkted wrote:
Hi, busy lately with bullshit, ill catch up soon. ##visit Mr. Wiggles, Sorry i couldn't be here to switch my vote

Thanks for not lynching me though, i appreciate it.