EPTa town with no detection? interesting...
Cosmic Horror Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
a town with no detection? interesting... | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
That said ##Vote: Navillus Because he was the first person to talk about being a townie. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Navillus If he feels the need to convince Jackal he's a townie, I think it's more likely that he's not actually a townie. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Palmar Didn't edit the name when I copy pasta'd it. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
And the doc can't reveal because the mafia will target him Wait, didn't someone say something about the doc debuff being cancelled because of the extra mafia? Or was that not official? And while I'm talking about a docs powers, doc cant heal the psychologist from suicide can he? as far as I can tell, this is a game of all claiming townie and praying the lynches work in our favour | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 24 2011 03:21 Sevryn wrote: What if we just have everyone claim they checked someone everyday so that way the psych doesn't have to claim but when he dies we can go back and see who he has checked. the only flaw being the possibility for the horror to visit the psych instead of vice-versa making someone else look guilty | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 24 2011 03:35 Hesmyrr wrote: @Cyber_Cheese You don't have to care about that. All the role details shown on the OP are 100% correct, such as this: @Jackal58 oops, thanks for that | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
It starts 9v3v1, assuming the mafia manage to hit town it's only ever going to go downhill unless we lynch and get lucky and/or someones percieved slip up is actually that. I'm thinking the plan to mention who we visited (even if we didn't) is better than nothing because *if* the psych happens to die there is a remote chance he did actually visit the horror That said, I'm going to kick things off and say I'm going to visit Erandorr, I advise everybody to choose someone and do the same. I never actually believed Palmar was anti-town, but there was an arguement against him and I didn't want to not lynch, so ##Unvote Now, having read up to this point, one person seems to be pushing the identity of the horror rather too strongly, don't you think? I'm thinking he's panicked from getting the third party role and tried to pin the blame on someone else from the get-go ##Vote: TheFerryman Note how Ferryman used examples of wiggles from other games, despite this being his first? I think he was likely looking at other games to see how a third party faction should be played, and just happened to come up with some 'evidence' that wiggles could be used as a scapegoat. Also I don't really think meta-arguements should be used, keep it within what's been said this game. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
##extension I have nothing against it. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
Am I alone here? | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Tnkted He mentioned something about a newbie mistake as coverup for Navillus, but that would be a newbie mistake for someone playing mafia more so than someone on town. | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
Breadcrumbing summary: The doc lies so mafia cant backtrack who healed the person they attacked accurately... so the doc cant breadcrumb The rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously? e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 25 2011 02:20 Forumite wrote: If players lie in breadcrumbing, then we get WIFOM and confusion. The doc can´t point at his breadcrumbs in case he is going to get lynched, so he´ll probably get lynched precisely because his breadcrumbs don´t add up with what is happening in the game. Scum and EA will analyse breadcrumbs, either getting valuable info, or a good alibi, which the Blues can´t contradict without outing themselves. It will create a mess, and we don´t want a mess. I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50 I'm pretty sure we're better off with the 50/50 | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
My apologies, I forgot that. ##Unvote ##Vote MrWiggles just for references sake, i made a list posts so far since the game started 1. Mr. Wiggles 5 2. Cyber_Cheese 12 3. Sevryn 8 4. TheFerryman 12 5. chaos13 5 6. Palmar 14 7. Navillus 5 8. Eiii 2 9. JeeJee 2 10. Jackal58 11 11. Forumite 8 12. Erandorr 11 13. tnkted 18 both of eiii's were spent accusing palmar scum tend to stay really quiet on sc2 mafia, im not sure how forum mafia compares | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 25 2011 02:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So what made you change your mind so quick, when neither me nor ferryman posted between these? Rather contradictory, don't you think? You've posted less, out of the two of you I'd rather ferryman based off that, and tnkted accusing me made me realise just how scummy I made myself look In my experience with SC2 mafia, only weak town roles accuse each other on day 1 because if they turn out to be wrong they're only townies | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 25 2011 03:03 Forumite wrote: So in your opinion, Wiggles and Ferryman are probably Scum? It doesn´t really add up with your earlier post, Wiggles might have few posts, but they are HUGE, he´s only posting long analysis and policy posts. Ferryman is quite active, and drew a lot of attention to himself early. If you are looking for players trying to stay out of sight, they look like very bad choices. at the moment, i'm believing wiggles is the horror | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + A journalist interviews a farmer : - You have a very nice field, and a good number of cows, do you get a good production out of it ? - Yes, yes ! mostly from the white cows. - Not from the black ? - Oh yes, from the black too ! - They seem very calm - They are very calm, mostly the white. - The black cows aren't ? - Yes, the black are very calm too ! - Do they make a good milk ? - Yes, mainly the white. - The black don't ? - Oh, yes, they do too. - Sir I don't understand, why do you always refere to this white cows then ? - Well, listen to me. It's because the white cows are mine. - The black aren't ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler + - Yes, they are also mine oops, forgot i wasnt meant to edit, apologies, spoilered the ending | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 25 2011 02:35 JeeJee wrote: what do you suggest happens if we all vote for psych to visit himself? p.s. it's not 50-50 just because there's 2 possibilities. it's like, the odds of anything happening are 50-50 because it either happens or it doesn't. this raises a question Can visiting roles choose to do nothing? If so, the ideas good and psych sits at home | ||
|
Cyber_Cheese
Australia3609 Posts
On August 25 2011 06:25 TheFerryman wrote: Making lists is a great way to contribute without contributing, and in this post you go and point out that Eiii is lurking and then vote for wiggles. While indicating mafia like to lurk, you either aren't reading what you write or you just wanted to post without thinking. Either way, its poor play, I expect you to remedy that asap, also I want you to explain why you voted wiggles. For the purposes of this post, Elritch Horror = EH Based on the arguments so far, I believe wiggles to be the EH I'm not a fan of meta arguments at all, if someone were to slip up it should be a mistake they made completely in-game As for why wiggles when I suspect someone as scum? There are 4 things that can happen if we lynch: 1) The person is a townie 7/13, it's not a real loss comparatively, bad but still acceptable 2) The person is a power role (Doc/Psych) 2/13, much worse off for town 3) The person is mafia 3/13, this is acceptable, not the best solution but a good one 4) The person is EH 1/13, night is skipped and we stand at essentially a 12p game, psyche is as good as townie, and it's a 96H day 5) No-one, the game proceeds to night, I'll go into this below On any of the first three, we can analyse the people who put the person up there and potentially narrow down our list of suspects. Of note, and assuming that the towns intelligent choices don't allow the vote to get deflected by the mafia such that all 13 people have an equal chance (It's potentially the other way around), losing a power role is half as likely as killing a scum. Now on to the night, EH first, 5 possibilities, all fractions are based off no-lynches 1) He chooses mafia, 1/4, town is unaffected 2) He chooses Townie, 7/12, again no effect 3) He chooses Doc, Doc might now kill someone he deemed important enough to heal tonight 4) He chooses Psych, psych promptly dies 5) Psych heals the EH's target later, I estimate this at 11/12*1/11, since there's an 11/12 chance the Psych isn't the target with the EH and a 1/11 it's the correct one, this is 1/12, roughly 8.3% (wow what that's back to 1/12?! Is my math right?) 5 isn't possible if the town votes for Psychs target unless EH is stupid, I argued this being a good idea earlier, I still stand by that. The mafia will do one of 5 things (I was about to ask if mafia would know the reason their attack failed, doc heal verses EH, but they know if they go insane and if doc heal saved the target so it's elementary) 1) The mafia hit the EH, they know who he is now and have no reason to kill him, in fact they potentially benefit keeping him alive so a night is not skipped 2) The mafia hit a Townie, 7/10, someone who was nowhere near the towns focus is killed more than likely and nothing good comes of it 3) The mafia hit the Doc, 1/10, bad night 4) The mafia hit the Psych. 1/10, potentially just as bad 5) Doc heals the victim, 9/10*9/12*1/9, person is known to be town, 9/12 being the docs non-scum targets, 9/10 is the doc not being the one hit, 1/9 is the chance of a correct choice, which becomes 3/40, or 7.5% (Again, math check) Note that some combinations of the above are worse than others Under which circumstances did we gain information overnight? There's a 3/40 that the doctors save will occur (the chance worked out the same it was the horror that got hit, at this point I distrust my math more so than ever, saddening for a student engineer but I digress) There's a 1/12 that we know the person psych visited isn't the EH, assuming we know who the psych visited, halve this because there is an equal chance the EH visited him, and a 1/144 of the optimal both if we add 3/40 and 1/12, there is about 16% chance something good happened overnight without a lynch, whereas there is a 31% chance we hang a scum note that the former percentage would go up if the lynching isn't the doc/psych This is why I am pushing for a lynch so hard. | ||
| ||
