EPTTL Mafia L - Page 9
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
 its just annoying that once this thread moves on it is a pain to find that information | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
Lets do some analysis of the day 1 election for mayor and go through the sequence of events. I'm going to post colored summaries like we have seen people make thus far. Between then I'll give my thoughts on what mafia was trying to achieve with the votes. On January 14 2012 07:49 flamewheel wrote: Day 1 Election Vote Tally Votes for Bill Murray (2) Foolishness VisceraEyes Votes for kitaman27 (1) bumatlarge Votes for VisceraEyes (1) blahz0r Votes for BloodyC0bbler (3) Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke Bill Murray GGQ Votes for Protactinium (1) Palmar 28 hours and 13 minutes remain in the day. This is the first look we have at the votes given by flamewheel. None of our flipped mafia have showed on it. Not surprisingly they are holding on to most of their votes. Not much interesting to talk about here because of this. Could be some red names in here but lets not speculate. Lets work with what we know and the names that have flipped. Moving on. The next time flamewheel posts a summary is like a full day (real time not mafia time) after the previous one, so I am going to put together another summary that captures the vote list with roughly 16 hours left to vote, immediately after Kurumi voted for Protactinium: Day 1 Election Vote Tally as of Jan. 14 @ 19:57 KST Votes for Bill Murray (2) VisceraEyes bumatlarge Votes for kitaman27 (2) evantrees Bill Murray Votes for VisceraEyes (2) blahz0r Cyber_Cheese Votes for BloodyC0bbler (5) Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks (vaderseven) Lanaia Votes for Protactinium (3) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Votes for Meapak_Ziphh (1) JayJay54 Votes for sandroba (1) Nisani201 Votes for Mattchew (1) Foolishness there were roughly 19 hours left to vote at this point. There were only 17 of 50 votes cast at this point. Alright things are getting more interesting. But still there are no red names that have voted. I have some thoughts despite this. You can clearly see how Protactinium's campaign resonated with town aligned roles, this should have been clear by a quick look at the final tally. This will continue be a theme of his as his group of votes grows. And since he based his campaign around lynching a mafia (Ciryandor) he is extremely dangerous to mafia. They have an active interest in keeping him from getting elected. BC get's Protact's day 1 lynch focus in this period of time as well. Later, he will switch to Macpo making red votes for him even more unlikely. Still, there is no way he could have red support in any fashion at this point in the game he is too dangerous. The only way mafia votes for him is if they are absolutely sure that he won't get mayor and it its probable they don't even want him in as Sheriff but we'll talk about this later in the analysis. Next. We have Nisani201 voting for sandroba. Check out his reasoning in this post. His reasons for disliking BC are valid, and many others shared them. He likes sandroba because of the mass mason claim though? This is a bit fishy. Lets look into sandroba's campaign at this point: On January 13 2012 17:11 sandroba wrote: Hi everybody, I'll be running for mayor and I need your support. The whole basis of my campaign is being town and pretty decent at figuring out scum. Myself holding day1 lynch and 3 votes everyday is a pretty good deal on average I'd say so. Also it's ridiculously easy to figure out my alignment not only because I suck as scum, but also because I hate it and usually can't keep up with the thread after a few days. So yeah, you don't have to worry about that because I'm thankfully town this game. Another benefit to electing me is that I usually get shot pretty early on (normally day2 the latest), and I can tell you that keeping me alive will improve town's chances by a lot. Let me say that there is no fucking reason to not elect a trustworthy established sumhunter in favor of electing a new player whose millage may vary. The main goal of the mayor role is to get someone who can reliably get scum lynched and be a threat to mafia. Putting in a random dude has no benefit to town and can even be detrimental if the dude has his head stuck up his ass. So town gather up and give me your support, because mafia isn't going to let me get this position easily. It makes them feel unsafe and fearful. They are right. I'm coming for them. This is his campaign post. Not the most inspiring thing. Probably the reason why he had no votes for a full day before he got this vote from Nisani. Now, does this make Nisani red? I don't know, possibly. Considering he is very much a lurker in this game that is more than enough reason to suspect him already. Nisani does oppose the Palmar lynch ticket, but asserts that scum-hunting on day one is useless. Points for mafia there. Before Macpo flipped he also attacked Protact and pushed for his lynch. Mafia is scared of Protact. Could be a reason to go after him. He could also be bad. I dk I'm not familiar with him. But he's one to keep in mind later. last point - sandroba was one of the biggest pushes of the mason talk day 1 along with BC, not a protown thing, but Nisani uses this confusion as his basis for a vote. A bit illogical. Town is confused at this point of the game, not voting for a guy screaming for mass claim. Next we have some unvotes during this time window. Foolishness changes his vote to Mattchew following the revelation of Macpo's mason-ness. I can't get a read if this is townish or mafiaish atm so to the next unvote we go! bumatlarge switches his vote and decides to vote for Bill Murray. Again, dk Bill's alignment so I'm gonna relax on the analysis of this but it is worth mentioning he discounts Protact's motives in his post. Another pretty lurkerish dude for most of this game. Keep an eye on him. Finally BM unvotes and votes for kitaman27. We all know my thoughts on BM. And kita also hasn't flipped and is pretty lurkerish. No comment on this. Lets move ahead another 12 hours, shall we? On January 15 2012 06:18 flamewheel wrote: Day 1 Election Vote Tally Votes for Bill Murray (4) VisceraEyes bumatlarge Macpo Toadesstern Votes for kitaman27 (1) evantrees Votes for VisceraEyes (1) blahz0r Votes for BloodyC0bbler (8) Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks (vaderseven) Lanaia glurio Cyber_Cheese Foolishness Votes for Protactinium (3) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Votes for sandroba (1) Nisani201 Votes for supersoft (1) Bill Murray Mattchew being modkilled means that Jayjay54 and Scamp need to find somebody else to vote for. 5 hours and 42 minutes remain in the day. A whole slew of people have yet to vote. Munk-E has yet to post. We have our first red vote! BM you dirty boy. If you are mafia (which I think you are) your team has put you in position to be more likely to be considered down the stretch. These 1 vote guys who are just part of the pack are your Ralph Naders of the election. We wouldn't want to be one of those now would we? But one mafia vote isn't enough to condemn you 100% so lets just leave it at that. Back to Protactinium's ticket. He remains stalled. He changed his lych candidate and town is a bit skittish, and mafia sure as hell isn't going to vote for him. They're more likely putting votes into BC's candidacy, which is gaining some steam. We still don't know the alignment of his electorate though so lets hold on making any more conclusions about the man I want lynched. JayJay54 unvotes and both he and the now deceased Scamp vote for Mattchew. Not much to conclude from this though, just making note of the unvote. If I haven't made it clear, I'm keeping track of unvotes because they represent a possible swing of 2 votes when candidates are compared. Thus they carry more weight in turning the election in mafia's favor. Next point. L votes for himself during this period because he is an egomaniacal mafioso who wasn't serious about his campaign at all. Lets ignore this and come back to him when he does vote again. BM unvotes and then votes supersoft who as you all know I suspect to be mafia, had a horrible defense, and has done no protown action in quite some while. He relied on BC/Proact/Foolishness train to live, not himself. He did not defend himself vigorously and never took an accusation at his town-ness seriously. I believe supersoft is scummy, and this is an irrelevant vote for someone who wasn't about to be mayor/sheriff any time soon. BM still looking red in my eyes. Cyber_Cheese unvotes VisceraEyes because VisceraEyes is a bit of an idiot. Can't have idiot mayors. Especially ones that want you dead. He switches to BC. VE did revoke his own candidacy it bears mentioning though. I don't have any special reads on this one but lets juts notice the theme of BC and BM getting good spots for a run at mayor. One or both of these is likely mafia in my mind. Oh yeah, Foolishness has to unvote Mattchew because Mattchew is also an idiot. No read on this but he's finally found his hetero-life-partner in BC a bond that has yet to be questioned. Now lets skip ahead again. On January 15 2012 09:31 jcarlsoniv wrote: Current Vote Count Bill Murray (8) Macpo Toadesstern blahz0r supersoft rgtheShworz Giygas bumatlarge jackal58 Kitaman27 (1) evantrees VisceraEyes (1) L BloodyC0bbler (8) first Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks Lanaia glurio Cyber_Cheese Foolishness Protactinium (7) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Cwave Slardar Liquid`Sheth Jayjay54 Sandroba (1) Nisani201 Supersoft (1) Bill Murray L (2) ~OpZ~ Scamp Wherebugsgo (3) Mr. Wiggles Kenpachi VisceraEyes Day ends in 2.5 hours. Get your votes in! Bill Murray continues to gather steam. He has gotten the support of some for sure town, but bumatlarge is a bit sketchy, and supersoft and rgTheSchworz even sketchier. Could still be a mafia-supported candidate with multiple mafia votes backing him. L votes VisceraEyes, a pointless vote and one that at this point is helping spread out their vote. Typical mafia strategy at work. VE is most likely town though as he is not an actual candidate (not to mention at the current day his outbursts have made him look even more town). BC's campaign has now stalled. Makes sense that mafia wouldn't put any votes on him as long as he has a sizeable lead. He's still a possible mafia candidate. Protact is getting more support! Yay for town but unfortunately it isn't fruitful  Sheth shows yet again how town roles flock to Protact's campaign. Protact's proximity and chance of being mayor is high still, and mafia can't risk more votes for him though. I could see Cwave as a possible mafia trying to slip in at this point but not Slardar or JayJay. If they can mafia would like to infiltrate this campaign but if it means putting him at the top or within a few votes of the top of the list of candidates they wouldn't do it.OpZ and Scamp have voted for L like I said not a campaign mafia actually cares about but it isn't beyond them slipping in some votes to hide. OpZ is a lurker extraordinaire this game and could be mafia. Keep an eye on this guy. wherebugsgo has entered the race and got those oh-so quick votes! The quickness of the votes immediately classified him as a suspect candidate and if he was mafia they didn't care about him getting in. Possibly one mafia vote in here I say. Maybe Kenpachi who knows. This campaign isn't really of any relevance in the greater scheme of things. Now lets see the final picture and start to draw some conclusions and list some suspect votes! I'm actually going to post this with the final vote analysis soon to come I just really don't want to have a crash and somehow lose all of this analysis. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
My final analysis of the day 1 election is still coming btw. Stay tuned. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
On January 15 2012 12:20 flamewheel wrote: Day 1 Election Vote Tally Votes for Bill Murray (11) Second Macpo Toadesstern rgTheSchworz Jackal58 GiygaS Munk-E EchelonTee Nisani201 Mr. Wiggles Ciryandor kitaman27 Votes for kitaman27 (1) evantrees Votes for BloodyC0bbler (11) First Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks (now vaderseven) Lanaia glurio Cyber_Cheese Foolishness supersoft wherebugsgo VisceraEyes Votes for Protactinium (10) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Cwave Liquid`Sheth Jayjay54 Jitsu p4NDemik bumatlarge blahz0r Votes for supersoft (1) Bill Murray Votes for L (2) ~OpZ~ Scamp Votes for wherebugsgo (2) Kenpachi Slardar Votes for VisceraEyes (1) L Votes for Meapak_Ziphh (1) BloodyC0bbler BloodyC0bbler is elected as Mayor and Bill Murray is his new Sheriff. There are a lot of non-voters. Chaosquo is excused for this cycle, but to my count that still leaves... kingjames01 BrownBear (super super super super lurker atm) sandroba igabod (replaced by jaj22) Erandorr (replaced by hiro protagonist, our claimed detective who has not revealed the rest of his info) Protactinium rtgICEMAN Maxella Replacements are being sought after, though I'm sensing modkills. I hope everyone will excuse me putting myself as green. I am not against you guys keeping an open mind at all but I want to show my thought process here. I know I am not mafia thus I will use that in my deductive reasoning. I also now realize I need to clarify BM's lynch candidate now though because I have neglected that thus far and it is a stupid oversight for which I apologize. A look at his filter shows he initially wanted CC dead but renigged on that and decided on the 14th 1 day in that we should kill sandroba. Big town points for BM I'm surprised I've finally found something pro-town. Alas, BM switched off of sandroba on the 14th at roughly 19:00 KST (rather early on at the time of the second vote count I have listed). He wanted OpZ or Mattchew dead at this point. At 21:00 KST he seems to be back on the sandroba death train (albeit not as strongly as before and after a lot of switching now). Up until the end of the election he wanted sandroba to die as evidenced by this post. OK MAJOR townpoints for BM I apologize for not fully realizing this and being to lazy to go fully through your filter because you looked like such an idiot townie and therefor so red. *** PEOPLE THIS IS CRUCIAL BOTH PROCTACT AND BM WANTED MAFIA DEAD IF THEY WERE ELECTED. THIS IS REASON TO KEEP BM ALIVE FOR THE MOMENT AND ATTACK WHO ENDED UP AS MAYOR: BloodyC0bbler *** It is possible BM is still a mafia candidate who they sacked for the best candidate though, but this sheer fact should keep our town idiot alive. Now for more analysis! All of our flipped reds are now present (at least represented in the list as sandroba did not vote). Sandroba not voting makes sense, an active mafioso doesn't vote to help spread the mafia vote - not voting does in a way spread the vote. With the vote as close as it was I have my doubts this was entirely intentional though, but even moreso I doubt they would have any more than 1 fellow mafia that didn't vote in addition to sandroba. Now lets move on to the votes because fuck those people that didn't vote and got mod-killed or played horribly like kj (I don't hate you kj, but COME ON!!  ). Protact I will forgive in honor of his great deeds done for town, that and the other viable candidates look to be at this point very much possible mafia. There very well may not have been another good town candidate left at this point. Jitsu votes early in these last few hours. His vote is pretty cruicial because it tied Protactinium with the suspect mafia candidates. This vote and the ones that followed put a lot of pressure on the mafia. He is unlikely to be mafia by my book, but not exempt of scrutiny as he hasn't done enough during the game to warrant anyone trusting this read too much. Protact is getting major traction at this point. blahz0r, bumat, and I all vote Protact. Bumat and blahz0r both unvote at this point as well and there is only a little over an hour left. Protact has a 3 vote lead! Needless to say my vote at this moment of time makes me look even more green because I was the vote that put Protact in the lead. This is a fortunate coincidence for me at this point in time but honestly after all the effort I've put in for town I hope you guys believed my town-ness before I had to make this point. #1 priority for mafia during the election is to escape the day without any of their crew dying. #2 is getting elected roles. As always is the priority of not being found out. Lets delve farther into the vote though. I'm going to be looking at every vote now because they are getting more and more crucial. Context is important for each vote. We have our top lurker of the game award winning Munk-E showing up to vote BM! Likely mafia voting for likely mafia in my eyes. This vote puts BM at 7 votes to Protacts 11. BC has 8 votes. VisceraEyes unvotes the pointless wherebugsgo campaign and revotes for Protactinium. We'll be seeing more from him later though. Protact now has 12 votes, with BM at 7 and BC at 8. For now this is a townie looking vote with townie motives. Evantrees attempts to vote for VisceraEyes, but fails to unvote. His vote will stay on his initial vote of kitaman27. Don't know what to say about this. Stupid town play, mafia play status is uncertain. We have bigger fish to fry atm lets look to the next vote. Nisani201 has unvoted sandroba and switched to Bill Murray! This could be a very telling vote. His was one that could have been a mafia trying to spread votes earlier, but now their nuts are in a vice, and he is consolidating. Both of his votes have possible mafia motives. Upgrade this guy to orange on our town security scale! Reminder to self: we need to look at his post reasoning in depth when time allows. As well as his entire filter by that measure. Protact has 12, BM has 8, and BC has 8 votes. EchelonTee votes Bill Murray. Also a suspect vote and worth looking into his filter and vote reasons with a close eye for bullshit. He did not unvote and he did not have a previously smelly post so I won't put his priority level above that of Nisani though. Protact has 12 votes, BM 9, and BC 8. Slardar unvotes Protactinium and votes for WBG now. This is a bit of a lateral move in the mafia's eyes. Protact now is at 11 with BM 9 BC 8. Slardar's vote doesn't further their agenda anymore than bringing down Protact's vote count. Still could be mafia yanking support when in a pinch but not as suspect as Nisani again. Could also be mafia spreading their vote. Dk. Protact 11 BM 9 BC 8. Mr Wiggles, townie, votes for BM, fuck our lives right? Oh well he's a townie and Protact is up 11 to BM's 10 and BC's 8. BC votes now. He votes for Meapak, a cadidate that in his works "he at least knows isn't retarded." This doesn't help town, and can possibly be mafia hiding in the woodwork of a candidate who had no prior support. ADDENDUM: BOTH OTHER VIABLE CANDIDATES WANTED SCUM DEAD IN FACT highly suspicious vote highly suspicious reasoning. No town points rewarded for BM and he does not pass go. Protact 11, BM 10, and BC 8. This is where mafia makes their play. Now supersoft, my pet mafia project dejour that I haven't forgotten switches his vote from BM to BC. SUPER SUSPICIOUS. Protact 11, BM 9, BC 9. BC IS RED AND SO IS THIS SCUM. They both need to die ASAP. Sheeping mafia scumbag who BC defended needs to go. Ciryandor votes for BM. Protact 11, BM 10, BC 9. Mafia motives will become more clear with the final votes. wherebugsgo votes for BC. Protact 11, BM 10, BC 10. I previously thought he was just bad town but wherebugsgo could very well be mafia folks. Need to read his filter over again, all I can think off the top of my head is he hasnt' don't much pro-town lately or ever as far as I know but until now I've passed it off as bad play. VisceraEyes UNVOTES Protact and votes BC. Crucial vote puts BC in as mayor. Crucially suspicious. Need to read this guy's filter (this is frustrating because his outbursts made me think he was stupo-town). BC 11, BM 10, Protact 10. Finally kitaman votes Bill Murray. Ties the candidates but BC wins by tiebreaker rules. I dk could be mafia could be town but this guy has been lurking hardcore to my recollection so he warrants a look regardless. Jitsu unsuccessfully tries to withdraw his vote for Protact and vote for BC. Could be a panicked mafia making a mistake before his buddies realized they had won or before they had time to properly talk to him. Could be a lazy townie. I don't know. BUT TL:DR: BloodyC0bbler is DEAD RED and I need your help town to make sure he goes TONIGHT. BM wanted to kill sandroba during the lynch and this should earn him one more day of life. His prior idiocy prevented me from verifying this and made me ignore his I told you so's like the rest of you. Please town! ##Vote BloodyC0bbler | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
I need to sleep now but I hope everyone will be doing the right thing by the time I awake! | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
BloodyC0bbler supersoft Less for sure but high-up suspects: Foolishness (99%) People we need to be suspicious of: shitton of people my head hurts goodnight. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
JayJay54 why would sandroba not vote for BC in the vote thread? BC was the only candidate who wasn't going to lynch scum. It looks like an actual mafia mistake. I have not marked all of the vote-hoppers as scum. I list them as suspect. supersoft is the only one I am sure is scum along with BC and Foolishness (almost just as likely as supersoft). I don't think a last minute vote switch is something that is going to garner more town support at all. We saw vote switches stall Protactinium's campaign and indecision and vote switching is sketchier the closer you get to the deadline. The circumstances of this "compromise" made it even more suspect in my eyes. I don't see how this is a good arguing point saying these votes are more likely to be town and BC is more likely to be town. Logs can and have been faked before. I've seen it in games. Other people have attested to seeing it happen in games. Other people in this thread have attested to doing it themselves in games. BC is gutsy mafia. This is something he would do. Again not a reason to ignore my case for BC. Yes, my analysis is good, and BM WANTED SCUM DEAD. Day 1! Why are you voting for him over the more suspect BC? | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
BM can and should still die. He needs one more night to put out the rest of his bombs if actually Mad Hatter though which is looking a little more likely. His claimed role is useless if we don't kill him, and if he is scum we need to kill him anyways. But this BC vote takes precedence! Please follow my logic and vote BC! | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
I definitely think that they both could have manufactured it and roleplayed. if they are mafia and they are going this far to avoid a red name dying day 1 with everything relying on this interchange being genuine then yes they are going to roleplay and falsify logs. They are going to be pressed hard for them. | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
On January 22 2012 20:07 Cwave wrote: Got mason'd by Jitsu last day and i can confirm that BM atleast provided the same two names as BG's to us. With that, we also saw BC list one of the Bg's as scum that BM provided us. Why would a mayor list one of his bg as scum? Because he thinks they are scum? The questionability of this move relies a lot on who it is and why he has listed them as scum. If he has good reasons then he has good reasons. If he has a weak case, one that he shouldn't be sure enough of to present in the thread then he is more likely scum. Whether you want to release this one bg's name is up to you, jitsu, and BM, but considering our mayor and sheriff are our two main candidates for lynching anyways I think it makes sense to release this information to decide which is the better lynch. | ||
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p4NDemik
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On January 22 2012 20:29 p4NDemik wrote: Jayjay you are writing off the fact that one of the people BC could have been faking it is already confirmed scum. It is far easier to fake a conversation when you are both scum and roleplaying that you are town than it is to manufacture both sides of a log out of thin air. If it was hypothetically this long of a log in a game where he has to make up comments of a confirmed town and present them under scrutiny then yes I'd say no way he manufactured it. I definitely think that they both could have manufactured it and roleplayed. if they are mafia and they are going this far to avoid a red name dying day 1 with everything relying on this interchange being genuine then yes they are going to roleplay and falsify logs. They are going to be pressed hard for them. On top of this if you want to use that post to give Foolishness town points that is well and good but BC should not get the same amount of town points. He may deserve to be viewed in a little more townish light but not enough to not warrant his lynch imo. I also think if foolish is town he would be fighting me harder and not defaming me. Something more like your post and not like his. He's supposed to be good town with good reads. I want to lynch his town (in his eyes) mayor right now. Why is he not fighting harder than this? | ||
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
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p4NDemik
United States13896 Posts
Can you tell me what you honestly think about my case against supersoft then? I presented a strong one against him and he has made little to no effort to propose a real defense. He hasn't been helpful and he hasn't done anything for town in ages. | ||
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